Cigarette Advertising and Adolescent Intentions to Smoke

Cedric Greive Avondale College

Abstract

The issue relating cigarette advertising to adolescent smoking was briefly raised in mid-1994. This report examines the potential effect of cigarette advertising upon adolescent intentions to smoke. From a review of the literature a causal model of attitudinal belief was developed. This model linked exogenous background factors through potential beliefs about smoking to intention with regard to smoking behaviour. The belief scales used in the study were created from adolescent perceptions of the propositions about smoking implicit within the cigarette advertising commonly found in magazines in 1990. These perceptions were turned into potential belief scales and included in a questionnaire. Data collected in the Hunter region allowed a compatibility of the model with the data to be tested. The study found that those adolescents who took part in the study believed that the propositions implicit within the advertising suggested that smoking provided the participant with a social advantage and an enhanced sexual image. They also believed that the advertising was directed at themselves and was meant to influence their decisions about smoking. Results indicated that those respondents who intended to smoke were more likely to believe that smoking provided a social advantage and an enhanced sexual image than were those who had no intention to smoke. Path analysis found that the two belief clusters were linked to both experimentation with smoking and to future intention with regard smoking.

Currently, some 18,000 Australians have their lives prematurely terminated by diseases developed or exacerbated by habitual smoking of cigarettes or the second-hand inhalation of tobacco smoke (Woodward, Roberts & Reynolds, 1989; Shean, 1989; Musk & Shean, 1988a). Three quarters of all smokers began their habit as juveniles (Hill, White, Pain & Gardner, 1990). As of the end of the last decade, some 70,000 Australian children and adolescents commenced smoking each year (Armstrong, Daube & Shean, 1988), spending in excess of $30,000,000 annually on cigarettes (Hill, Willcox, Gardner and Jouston, 1987). Despite this, cigarette advertising has been freely permitted within magazines sold in Australia until December, 1990. The question as to whether or not such advertising influenced the onset of smoking among teenagers has been hotly debated and denied by the tobacco companies. This paper will re-examine the nature of the link between the imagery within magazine advertising of cigarettes and the potential onset of smoking among Australians adolescents.

The literature dealing with tobacco use suggests that the onset of smoking among Australian juveniles is not the result of random behaviour. It will be argued that the literature variously infers, suggests and describes a causal process not at all dissimilar to the Fishbein and Ajzen model of attitudinal causality (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975; Ajzen, 1988). According to this model, intention to behave in a particular way is determined by the consolidation of attitudinal beliefs that relate to the object of the behaviour. This paper will argue that cigarette advertising may influence intention to smoke by fostering and reinforcing those beliefs which view smoking as both pleasurable and personally advantageous. The study which follows will

test the compatibility of the causal model of attitudinal influence with data collected within the lower Hunter.

Literature Review Characteristics of Young Smokers Young smokers emerge from the literature as a vulnerable sub-group of society. Many of them tend to come from homes with poor economic resources (Pederson & Lefcoe, 1986; Michell & Stenning, 1989) in which smoking is regarded as normal (Goddard, 1992; Swan, Creeser & Murray, 1990) and in which there can often be conflict between family members (Nelson, Budd, Eiser, Morgan, Gammage & Gray, 1985). Many young smokers report that their parents appear to be disinterested in their activities (Eiser, Morgan, Gammage & Gray, 1989b; Noller & Callan, 1991), allow them large blocks of unsupervised time and do not require them to account for any money that they might have (Nelson et al, 1985; Robson, 1984). Young smokers are highly tolerant of smoking (Michell & Stenning, 1989) and appear to choose their friends on the basis of the friends' smoking status (Nelson et al, 1985). They tend to have poor self esteem (Nash, 1987), an external locus of control (Eiser, Morgan, Gammage & Gray, 1989b) and to exhibit a high degree of social anxiety (Gordon, 1986). At school, they tend to be poor readers (Sunseri, Alberti, Kent, Schoenberger, Sunseri, Amuwo & Vickers, 1983), underachievers (Stanton & Silver, 1991; Piepe, Charlton, Morley, Morley & Yerrell, 1986) and to have a low expectation of success (Gerber & Newman, 1989). They are more likely to be problematic students who frequently truant (Nash, 1987; Robson, 1984). They appear to be more willing to indulge in risky behaviour (Marwick, 1988) including premature sexual activity and indulgence in alcohol (Ashton & Stepney, 1982a; Hill, Willcox, Gardner & Jouston, 1987; Fisher & Bauman, 1988). They tend to be fatalistic about their own health (Eiser, Eiser, Gammage & Morgan, 1989a) and although they appear to know the dangers of smoking, including its addictive nature, this has little moderating effect on their behaviour (Marwick, 1988; Maddock, 1987; 1985). For the purposes of this study, one of the more significant characteristics of young smokers is their intention with regard smoking. Young smokers indicate a strong intention to continue smoking (Goddard, 1992; Sutton, 1992) and the Armstrong team found that the stated intention of non-smokers was predictive of smoking behaviour a year later (Armstrong, de Klerk, Shean, Dunn & Dolin, 1990).

While these characteristics cannot be generalised to all young smokers, the literature indicates that within their ranks, there is an over-representation of those to whom these descriptions apply.

Factors Related to the Onset of Smoking In the great majority of cases, habitual smoking commences within the age-range of 10 through 16 years (Gray & Hill, 1975; Hill & Gray, 1982; Hill, 1988; Hill, White, Pain & Gardner, 1990). This period includes some of the turbulent years of adolescence when young people are trying to form an individual identity, distinct from that of parents and family (Noller & Callan, 1991). It is a period when there is exploration of personal roles and an open curiosity about objects and relationships within their world. Of course this includes an experimentation with those behaviours normally regarded as belonging to the adult world - including smoking. As would be expected, a much higher proportion of juveniles will puff a cigarette out of curiosity than approach smoking with the intention of becoming a regular smoker (Hill, Willcox, Gardner, & Jouston, 1987; Hill et al, 1990).

It has been suggested that since the initial contact with nicotine is often unpleasant (dizziness and nausea is often experienced) there has to be some mechanism driving an intention to persist with the smoking

of cigarettes until a tolerance to nicotine has been established (Ashton & Stepney, 1982b). It is the combination of factors that underlie this willingness to persist with smoking that sets the determined young smokers apart from those who are merely curious.

Intention to behave in a particular way has been linked to attitude and belief (Myers, 1986), and one of the factors that distinguishes many young smokers from their non-smoking peers is their attitude toward smoking behaviour. They believe that smoking will ultimately be pleasurable (Novacek, Raskin & Hogan, 1991). This is particularly the case for those children whose family members or friends have modelled smoking behaviour before them throughout their childhood or for those who wish to emulate a particularly admired older person (Michell & Stenning, 1989). Further there are those who have used smoking as a means of signalling their independence or simply defying parental or school authority (Nash, 1987). Children and adolescents who display this type of behaviour often come from stressful family situations in which an authoritarian parenting style is evident (Noller & Callan, 1991). Many young smokers believe that the act of smoking can create a favourable personal image. For example the act of smoking can make them appear to be grown up; boys can appear to be cool, brave and masculine and girls can appear to be daring, independent and feminine (Ritchie, 1988; Nash, 1987; Aitken & Eadie, 1990; Urberg & Robbins, 1981). They also perceive smoking to be a social activity and associate it with a variety of social benefits. Cigarettes can be shared among friends, the offer of a cigarette is an acceptable way of initiating contact with another person and communal smoking is relaxing and can be an indication of acceptance within the 'gang' (Urberg & Robbins, 1981; Urberg, Shyu & Liang, 1990). Although they are well aware of such personal costs as the staining of teeth and fingers, bad breath and the clinging odour of stale smoke, the committed young smoker believes that the benefits outweigh the costs (Maddock, 1985; 1987).

Attitudes such as those described above are not formed in a vacuum. Attitudes are internalised over time during which the individual firstly witnesses and models the behaviour of others (Bandura, 1977) and then gains first hand experience. In short there has to be some form of social environment that promotes and reinforces the feelings and beliefs associated with attitudes to smoking.

Cigarette Advertising - An Appeal To Consumer Attitude The business climate in which the tobacco companies operate is motivated by the need to make profits and hence advertising is directed toward maintaining or increasing company share in a changing market place (Kotler, Chandler, Gibbs & McColl, 1989). As such, advertising has three major roles. Firstly it is geared to maintain a loyalty among existing customers. Secondly it is meant to persuade customers of competing brands to switch to the advertised brand. Finally, in order to be really effective it should encourage new buyers to sample the advertised product. Advertising must therefore be able catch a viewer's attention and, in the space of a few moments, imply that the particular brand will meet some real or imagined need better than any competing brand. In order to do this the implied message must make a direct appeal to the desires and beliefs of the viewer. Such a message is often a blend of emotive visual imagery and supposedly factual information. The Kotler group (1989; 528) term this "positioning the product in the consumer's mind". It is an appeal to consumer attitude (ibid).

This study is directed toward an examination of poster-type cigarette advertising that appeared in magazines during 1990. Chapman (1986)

described poster-type cigarette advertisements as involving visual 'freeze frames' accompanied by a minimal amount of text that together conveyed a variety of propositions about smoking, social interaction, human need, personality types and brand alternatives. He found the visual imagery involved was often metaphorical in nature and conveyed messages at more than one level. On the surface was a simple declaration of the product, its brand name and its availability for sale. However, at a deeper level the messages conveyed implications about smoking itself. For example, the male hand holding an open packet of cigarettes with one or two shaken free and partially protruding and the female hand reaching out signified the proffering and acceptance of a cigarette. The deeper message implied that smoking is a social and sociable activity and that the offer and acceptance of cigarettes can relieve initial social tensions and lead to convivial interaction with the opposite sex (ibid; 75). Chapman argued that the appeal of such advertising was targeted directly at that emotive blend of consumer desires and beliefs - their attitudes.

One of the major objectives of advertising is to develop brand loyalty. Tobacco companies achieved this by running themes within their brand advertising that remained reasonably stable over time (Chapman, 1986). The effect of this was to develop a brand 'character' or 'personality' (such as the 'Malboro Man') that created and maintained a certain brand loyalty on the part of the consumer (Doyle, 1990; Krishnamurthi & Raj, 1991; Sheth, Newman & Gross, 1991). The demonstration of brand loyalty among consumers is one of the indicators that an advertising campaign has been successful (Kotler et al, 1989).

Cigarette Advertising and Juvenile Smoking The tobacco companies have long claimed that they do not advertise to influence the onset of smoking among juveniles (Chapman, 1986; New South Wales Legislative Council Standing Committee on Social Issues, 1990). According to their argument, children and adolescents commence smoking for sociological reasons and that cigarette advertising has little effect. However, there is a strong suggestion that, by working in conjunction with the sociological factors already described and making an appeal toward consumer attitudes, cigarette advertising may well play a part in influencing the onset of smoking among the more susceptible adolescents.

Research indicates that children are well aware of cigarette advertising (Davis & McLean, 1987; Chapman & Fitzgerald, 1982; Aitken, Leathar, O'Hagan & Squair, 1987; Aitken, Leathar & O'Hagan, 1985) and that they believe that it is meant to influence their intentions to smoke (Fisher & Magnus, 1981; Ritchie, 1988). Their recall of advertisements is clearly related to the most heavily advertised cigarette in the area in which they live (ibid). Even children as young as twelve can perceive advertisements in the same manner as do adults (Aitken et al, 1987; Aitken et al, 1985; Aitken & Eadie, 1990). This adult-like perception also involves an awareness of brand 'personality' (Aitken et al, 1987). Finally, they have better recall of colourful and attractive advertisements than plain or grey tone advertisements (Nelson & Charlton, 1991).

There are a number of correlational relationships between an awareness of cigarette advertising and the smoking status of children. Young smokers are significantly more aware of cigarette advertising than are non-smokers (Chapman & Fitzgerald, 1982; Aitken & Eadie, 1990; Aitken et al, 1987). In comparison with their non-smoking peers they are better able to identify cigarette advertising (Chapman & Fitzgerald, 1982); more likely to recall aspects related to cigarette advertising (ibid; Ritchie, 1988; Aitken & Eadie, 1990; Klitzner et al, 1991); more

likely to be in favour of cigarette advertising (Aitken & Eadie, 1990); less likely to wish to ban cigarette advertising (Aitken, Leathar, O'Hagan & Squair, 1986) and more likely to see tobacco companies as being public-spirited organisations (Ritchie, 1988). Further, in comparison to their non-smoking peers, young smokers are more likely to perceive cigarette advertising as variously being exciting, interesting, eye-catching, glamourous or witty (Potts, Gillies & Herbert, 1986). Finally, Charlton (1986) found that children and adolescents who are more aware of cigarette advertising are also more likely to perceive smoking as having such attractive attributes as making the smoker look grown-up, tough, confident and keeping the smoker slim.

One of the features of adult smoking is the demonstration of brand preference (Chapman, 1986; Aitken & Eadie, 1990). Studies over the past two decades have revealed that Australian adolescents have also demonstrated similar predilections for particular brands (Hill & Gray, 1982; Davis & McClean, 1987; Woodward, 1990). The most obvious example being that of Rothman's 'Winfield' brand. In the eight years following its inception in 1972, Winfield's over-all market share rose to 25%. According to Kotler, Chandler, Gibbs and McColl (1989), this was a notable achievement due in no small measure to a clever advertising campaign involving actor Paul Hogan. However, during the same period, Winfield's market share among adolescents ran to approximately 50% (Hardes, Alexander, Dobson, Lloyd, O'Connell, Purcell & Leeder, 1981; Chapman & Fitzgerald, 1982; Hill & Gray, 1982; Fisher & Magnus, 1981). Aitken and Eadie (1990) found a similar pattern with Kensitas Club cigarettes in Scotland. They concluded that "those promotional devices which help determine and reinforce adult cigarette brand preferences have an even greater effect on under-age smokers" (399). They linked their findings to the heavy rate of advertising of Kensitas Club in the area in which their research was conducted (Glasgow). Chapman and Fitzgerald (1982) found that brand preference was a more dominant feature of the heavier adolescent smokers in their sample than among the casual and experimental smokers. They concluded that the adoption of a preferred brand was a part of the career path to becoming a regular smoker and Chapman (1986) argued that adolescent predilection for particular brands could well result from the internalisation of the imagery projected within the brand's advertising.

Finally, a study from Western Australia provides evidence of a different kind for a connection between cigarette advertising and the onset of smoking among school children. In this study 2,300 year seven students were surveyed three times by successive questionnaires over a period of two years. Within the survey, the young respondents were asked: "How much do cigarette advertisements make you think that you would like to smoke a cigarette?" In response, the respondents could mark "None at All" or "Some Influence" (Armstrong, de Klerk, Shean, Dunn & Dolin, 1990; 119, 120). This simple, two value variable was found to be predictive of future smoking among non-smokers.

There is an argument that cigarette advertising is meant to influence consumer attitudes and persuade them to purchase the advertised brand. This is done by presenting imagery that either foster or reinforces beliefs favourable to smoking. The evidence suggests that such advertising is as effective with children as it is with adults.

The Model of Attitudinal Causality An attitude has been described as a learned predisposition to respond to an object, person or institution in either a consistently favourable or unfavourable manner (Myers, 1986; Coon, 1988). As such, 'attitude' is a psychological construct employed to explain the consistency of

human behaviour (Ajzen, 1988). It has been ascribed an affective component and a belief component (Myers, 1986) and associated with an intention to act which culminates in the overt behaviour itself (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975). Attitudinal affect is the way people 'feel' toward the object of the attitude. Beliefs and opinions are the cognitive aspect of an attitude. Fishbein and Ajzen (1975; 14) argue that beliefs are "the fundamental building blocks in the conceptual structure" of attitudinal influence. As such 'belief strengths' can be regarded as a measure of attitude (ibid). They suggest that 'belief strengths' can be measured by the use a Likert scale against clear and direct belief statements.

There is an assumption of causality about the Fishbein and Ajzen concept of attitude. They argue that attitudinal affect and attitudinal beliefs are learned (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975; Ajzen, 1988). In other words, that certain factors in the social background of the individual and the history of their contact with the object of the attitude consistently reinforce particular clusters of beliefs and feelings about that object. These interlaced feelings and beliefs gel into a definable attitude that predisposes behaviour toward the object (Ajzen, 1988). In other words, intentions result from attitudes and culminate in particular patterns of habitual behaviour.

In adapting this model to the onset of smoking, two adjustments have been made. Firstly, priority has been given to 'intention' over habitual behaviour, for as Fishbein and Ajzen have argued, "when dealing with attitudes, we are concerned with predispositions to behave rather than with the behaviour itself" (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975; 12). This has particular relevance to the onset of smoking for although intention may be present, actual smoking behaviour could well depend upon circumstances. Further, intention to smoke among non-smoking children has been found to be predictive of their smoking behaviour up to a year later (Goddard, 1992; Chassin, Presson, Sherman, Corty & Olshavsky, 1984; Pederson & Lefcoe, 1986; Armstrong et al, 1990). Hence, this study has been directed toward the determination of those factors which influence 'intention to smoke'. This means that 'intention to smoke' has been made the ultimate dependable variable of the model.

Secondly, attention has been paid to the vast amount of experimentation by young people and the influence that that might have upon an intention to smoke. For some, a single smoking event in the past may have been sufficient to deter any further involvement with cigarettes. For others, the early experience was not a deterrent, and may well have contributed to the development of those attitudes which led to a continuation of smoking experience that in turn influenced the nature of intention at the time data was collected. This reasoning describes the flow of causality illustrated in figure 1.

Figure 1 Somewhere here

The argument presented in this paper is that advertising is designed to make an appeal to consumer attitudes. A group of adolescents will be asked to view a range of poster-type cigarette advertisements and to write down their impressions of the implicit propositions within the advertisements. These will be entered into the model as attitudinal beliefs (see Figure 1).

This model is causal, unidirectional, linear and additive and hence meets Pedhazur's (1982) criteria for the use of regression analysis to weight the dependencies postulated by the model. Similar models and methods have been used by Eiser, Morgan, Gammage and Gray (1989b) and

Urberg, Shyu and Liang (1990), though their objective was not directed at the influence of advertising.

Aims of the Study The literature review has developed an argument that the onset of regular smoking among adolescents involves the development of attitudes which perceive smoking to be pleasurable and personally advantageous. These attitudes have their origins in a sociological background that tends to shape those individuals whose personal characteristics make them appear vulnerable. Along with most other forms of advertising, cigarette advertising pitches its appeal directly toward consumer attitude. Hence by promoting or reinforcing attitudinal beliefs, cigarette advertising could well influence susceptible adolescents to become regular smokers. A number of questions are raised by this literature review. What was the nature of the poster-type cigarette advertising at the time of the study? What propositions did the adolescent viewers perceive in the advertising? Were these propositions related to adolescent beliefs about smoking? Could they have played a part in influencing the onset of smoking among adolescents?

Method Procedure and Respondents Over a period of three months, (January to March, 1990) a total of 28 weekly, monthly and bi-monthly magazines were reviewed for the nature and placement of cigarette advertisements. A set of 32 different photographic slides of these advertisements were prepared and screened before a selection of 40 mixed gender high schools students aged from 13 to 16 years. These students were asked to react silently to the slides by writing on a sheet of paper statements of what they thought the slide was saying about smoking. A second and different group of students, who had not seen the slides, were asked to write down statements about their perceptions of the disadvantages of smoking. Selections from both sets of statements were used to create 108 attitudinal items set against a six-point Likert scale and included in a questionnaire. The questionnaire also contained a demographic section which sought such information as the respondents' age and gender; the marital status of their families; their perception of parental support and of parental supervision; their estimate of their own school performance; their own smoking status and that of their family and friends; their reaction to cigarette advertising and sponsorship of sport by tobacco companies and finally in the case of smokers, their brand preference. With the approval of the various educational authorities, the questionnaire was administered anonymously to 423 students coming from years 5 to 12 in a selection of government and independent schools and including a small number of TAFE students. From Table 8, it can be seen that 369 respondents, aged 9 to 18 years, returned usable results. Of these, 203 (55%) were female and 166 (45%) were male. Eighty six (23%) were from primary schools, 270 (73%) from secondary schools and 13 respondents (4%) were from a TAFE college.

Results Review of Cigarette Advertisements A total of 65 cigarette advertisements were found in magazines ranging from women's magazines through sport and hobby magazines to sex magazines (see Table 1). In general, the greatest number of advertisements were to be found in women's magazines, with the highest

frequency per magazine coming from 'Women's Weekly' (8 in the January, 1990 issue). All but one of these advertisements were whole page or larger in size (see Table 2). Seven were full double page advertisements and two were poster sized inserts. Thirty had what could be termed priority placements - that is they were to be found either on the back cover or on the inside of the front or back cover. All of the advertisements were glossy, colourful and attractive. Of the 65 advertisements, 25 included scenes of social pleasure; thirteen associated smoking with luxury and/or success; nine hinted at the presence of the female smoker; eight contained images of tobacco products with no models present; five involved subtle humour and/or attention-grabbing designs and two included scenes of natural beauty (see Table 3). Eighteen of the 65 advertisements, were repeated advertisements.

Tables 1 to 4 Somewhere here.

The most commonly advertised brand at the time of data collection was 'Peter Jackson' (see Table 4). Their series of advertisements featured a happy group of young people (two female and one male) in a variety of poses in which the models had their arms linked or loosely draped around each other's shoulders - poses more typical of adolescents or young adults than of mature adults. 'Alpine' (six advertisements), 'Stradbroke' (five advertisements), 'Kent' (four advertisements) and 'Brandon' (two advertisements) all included scenes of social enjoyment involving mixed gender groups. 'Sterling' (nine advertisements) portrayed male hands proffering a packet of cigarettes with a couple shaken free and protruding, and a female hand accepting the offer. Advertisements for 'elle' (four advertisements) suggested the presence of the successful young women.

Development of the Attitudinal Items The group who viewed the slides produced 103 distinct statements related to their perception of the implicit messages within the cigarette advertising. These statements implied that cigarette advertisements suggested that smoking: enhanced personal image; conferred a social advantage upon the smoker; was physically enjoyable and that smoking was in some way related to economic and intellectual success. The nature of these responses along with some quite explicit statements from the respondents indicated that many of these students believed that the advertising was directed at them and was intended to influence their intention to smoke (For example one student wrote that "Tobacco companies want kids to start smoking."). Those items that were eventually used in the study are to be found in the 'Sexual Image' and 'Social Advantage' scales in Table 6.

The second group of students produced 33 distinct statements about the negative aspects of smoking. These addressed factors related to health, hygiene, personal image and cost. The most commonly suggested 'costs' related to factors of personal hygiene (staining of teeth and fingers, bad breath and the clinging odour of stale smoke) rather than to health risks. In fact the only specific health risk mentioned was lung cancer. Items produced in this way and used in the study are to be seen in the 'General Negative Effect' and 'Health and Hygiene' scales in Table 6.

Categorical Responses to the Questionnaire Table 5 indicates that of the 369 respondents, 53 (14%) claimed to be current smokers and 189 (51%) claimed to have experimented with smoking at some time in the past. It can be seen that young smokers were found in each age cohort, rising to a peak of 22% of the 16 year age cohort. It also appears that there was an approximate parity between the

smoking status of male and female smokers. By age 16, more than 70% of the age cohorts had experimented with smoking.

Table 5 Somewhere here

Of the 369 respondents, 141 indicated that their fathers smoked, 115 indicated that their mothers smoked and 78 that at least one of their siblings smoked. Missing data for these categories, is most likely to be from respondents who are the 'only-child' or from respondents with a deceased parent or whose parents have separated or divorced. In addition, 264 respondents claimed that they had friends who smoked. Of these, 57 indicated that more than half their friends smoked.

Intention to smoke is the key variable to the study. Twenty respondents indicated that it was likely that they would smoke, 103 that it was possible that they would smoke, and 246 indicated that it was very unlikely that they would smoke.

Formation of the Four Attitudinal Scales All 108 attitudinal items were entered into an orthogonal (varimax) rotated factoring process (SPSS inc, 1986). A plot of eigenvalues against factors indicated that the majority of variance was associated with four distinct factors (see Table 6). Since orthogonal rotation was used to create independent scales the criteria for item selection within each factor was kept fairly stringent. Items included within a factor had loadings exceeding 0.35 and a loading difference of less than 0.1 between the primary factor and any secondary factor.

Table 6 Somewhere here

The first scale included items describing the male smokers as 'strong', 'confident', 'masculine' guys who 'know where the action is' and who 'get the cute chicks'. On the other hand, items on the same scale describes female smokers as being 'sexy', looking 'sharp', 'carefree' and 'slim' and getting 'the guys they like'. This scale suggested that smoking enhanced the smoker's 'Sexual Image' and was therefore labelled 'SexIm'. It was found to have a coefficient alpha of 0.92. The items of the second scale collectively described the negative aspects of smoking. Thus smoking makes people look 'silly' or a 'bit of a dill' and people who smoke are 'insecure' or 'losers' with 'no will power' who 'don't know what they are doing'. This scale was entitled the 'Negative Aspect' (NegAsp') and was found to have a reliability of 0.85. The third scale included items related to 'Hygiene and Health' ('HygHeal'). It included statements such as 'smoking makes clothes smell', 'stains teeth' and 'fingers', 'annoys others', 'fills your lungs with tar' is 'dangerous to health and so on. This scale was found to have a reliability of 0.76. The final scale implied that smoking provided a 'Social Advantage' ('SocAd'). For example smoking was seen as making the participant feel 'a part of the crowd' or 'close to the gang'; it helped people 'fit in' and 'socialise' and it helped the group 'relax'. This scale, although only composed of seven items had a reliability of 0.82. It can be seen that the reliabilities of all four scales exceeded Nunnally's suggested criterion limit of 0.7 for a pilot study (1978: 245).

The Correlation Table The importance of the correlation coefficients to be found within Table 7 lay in the logical consistency of the relationships they represented, rather than in the magnitude of any individual correlation. For example those respondents whose siblings smoked were more likely: i)to have had friends who smoked (r = 0.33); ii)to have smoked more frequently in the past (r = 0.32);

iii)to have been current smokers at the time of the survey (r = 0.30); iv)to have intended to smoke in the future (r = 0.20).

Table 7 Somewhere here

Respondents who had friends who smoked were more likely: i)to have smoked frequently in the past (r = 0.52); ii)to have been a current smoker at the time of the survey (r = 0.46); iii)to have had at the time of the survey an intention to continue smoking (r = 0.38). iv)to have perceived fewer of the negative aspects of smoking (r = -0.45); v)to be less influenced by the health and hygiene costs of smoking (r = -0.22); vi)to have believed that smoking was a social benefit (r = 0.32); vii)to have believed that smoking enhanced their sexual image (r = 0.28).

Those respondents who had significant prior and current smoking experience: i)were more likely to intend to continue smoking (r = 0.45; 0.61); ii)were less influenced by the negative aspects (r - 0.46; 0.46); iii)were less influenced by the health costs of smoking (r = -0.20; -0.29); iv)believed that there was a social advantage to be gained in smoking (r = 0.31; 0..21) v)believed that their sexual image was enhanced by the act of smoking (r = 0.31).

Finally and most importantly, those who intended to smoke in the future: i)were less likely to be influenced by the negative aspects of smoking (r = -0.47); ii)perceived fewer health and hygiene costs (r = -0.28); iii)were more likely to perceive a social advantage to smoking (r = 0.34); iv)were more likely to believe that smoking enhanced their sexual image (r = 0.28); v)were more likely to see no problems in continued cigarette advertising (r = 0.29).

Each of the above correlation coefficient represents an isolated relationship between a single pair of variables. The question to be asked relates the effect when all variables are considered simultaneously. This question can be answered through the use of multiple regression equations in path analysis.

Development of the Path Diagram The variables were entered into standardised regression equations according to the pattern shown in Table 8. The removal of variables which did not comply with one-tailed 0.05 level of significance was achieved by use of the SPSS default backward stepwise regression process. At each step, the variable removed was the one with highest probability-of-F. Compliance with the test of significance was indicated by the fact that for each surviving variable coefficient b exceeded 1.645 times the standard error of coefficient b.

Table 8, 9 and Figure 2 Somewhere here

The results of the regression analysis (see Table 9) were translated into a uni-directional net of dependencies to be seen in the path diagram of Figure 2. The path coefficients represent the proportion of

a standard deviation change in the dependent variable caused by a one standard deviation change in the respective independent variable when all other variables in the equation are held at their mean position. Hence the path coefficients represent the comparative effects that the independent variables have upon the dependent variable.

Almost two fifths of the variance of 'Intention to Smoke' was found to be determined by a combination of five independent variables within the model. Those positively linked to 'Intention' included 'Current Smoking Status' (path coefficient 0.40) and belief in the 'Social Advantage' of smoking (path coefficient 0.10). The three variables with negative linkage included belief in the 'Negative Aspects' of smoking (path coefficient -0.24), a sense of 'Parental Support' (path coefficient -0.13) and 'Age' (path coefficient -0.09). The effect of other variables in the model is mediated by either the attitudinal variables or current smoking.

There were seven variables directly linked to 'Current Smoking' and explaining more than a third of its variance. Those variables that were positively linked to 'Current Smoking' included: i)belief in the enhancement of 'Sexual Image' (path coefficient 0.16); ii)the influence of 'Friends who Smoke' (path coefficient 0.17); iii)personal 'Past Experience' with smoking (path coefficient 0.16); iv)the 'Availability of Money' (path coefficient 0.10). Those variables that were negatively linked to 'Current Smoking' were: i)sense of parental support (path coefficient -0.11); ii)a belief in the 'Negative Aspects' of smoking (path coefficient -0.25); iii)the influence of 'Parents Living Together' (path coefficient -0.12).

The attitudinal scales were found to be dependent upon a number of exogenous factors. For example, those who were less influenced by the 'Negative Aspects' of smoking, were also those who had a high proportion of friends who smoked (path coefficient -0.34) and who had significant prior smoking experience (path coefficient -0.19). Those respondents who believed that smoking enhanced their sexual image tended to be: i)the younger of the group (path coefficient -0.38); ii)those with a high proportion of friends who smoked (path coefficient 0.31); iii)those who had prior smoking experience (path coefficient 0.11); iv)those who were not confident in their school performance (path coefficient -0.11); v)male (path coefficient -0.09). Those who believed that the act of smoking provided a social advantage tended to; i)have a high proportion of friends who smoked (path coefficient 0.30); ii)be more likely to be the younger of the respondents (path coefficient -0.27); iii)have had prior smoking experience (path coefficient 0.19); iv)sense a lack of parental support (path coefficient -0.11). In all, the exogenous variables explained about one fifth of the variance of each of the three attitudinal scales (see Table 9).

An examination of Table 10 reveals that attitude played a critical role in determining both 'Current Smoking' status and 'Intention' with regard to smoking. Awareness of the 'Negative Aspects' of smoking was the most influential of the attitude scales and provided an inhibiting effect upon both 'Current Smoking' and 'Intention' (total effects -0.25 and -0.34 respectively). However the two scales derived from cigarette advertising also had quite appreciable effects on 'Current Smoking' and

'Intention'. The effect of the 'Sexual Image' scale upon 'Current Smoking' (total effect 0.16) was second only to the 'Influence of Friends' when compared to the sociological influences. The combination of both scales produced a moderate but significant effect upon 'Intention' (total effect of 'Sexual Image' was 0.06; total effect Social Advantage was 0.10) that was commensurate with the effects of 'Influence of Friends when compared to the sociological factors.

Table 10 Somewhere here

Discussion and Conclusions There was a logical cohesiveness about both the correlation coefficients and the path diagram and both were consistent with the results of prior research. Central to the model were the two variables ‘Current Smoking Status’ and ‘Intention to Smoke’. In the correlation table both variables lay at the centre of a web of relationships involving the attitudinal scales and those background factors that the literature review indicated were predictive of smoking behaviour. The path diagram provides an over-view of the simultaneous interaction of those variables whose relationship with the two key variables remained significant in a regression process. These included three of the attitudinal scales and an array of background variables. For example the path diagram indicates that those whose friends smoke, who have themselves smoked in the past, who have the necessary resources to purchase cigarettes and who have attitudes favourable to smoking are more likely to smoke and to intend to continue smoking. Also, there are other more subtle relationships evident within the model. For example, the path diagram indicates that adolescents coming from separated families, who lack confidence in themselves and who feel that they do not have their parents support are more likely to smoke and to intend to continue smoking. The internal cohesiveness of these results and their consistency with the results of prior research lend a certain level of validity to model.

The results do suggest that cigarette advertising can influence the onset of smoking among adolescents. The study found that cigarette advertisements of the late 1980’s early ‘90’s were colourful, attractive and placed in magazines that would find their way into all types of places including the home. Within these magazines, the advertisements were located in positions that made them visible to even the casual observer (outside the back cover for example). Research has already indicated that such advertisements are remembered by children (Nelson & Charlton, 1991).

It was obvious from the statements made by the adolescent who viewed the slides, that they understood the implicit propositions within the advertisements and believed that they were directed toward themselves. These statements were turned into attitudinal items and the resulting data was used to factor them into two major attitudinal scales favourable to smoking - ‘Sexual Image’ and ‘Social Advantage’. Both scales represented continuums of belief among the adolescent respondents. However, since they were derived from adolescent perceptions of the propositions implicit within cigarette advertising, they also represented a coincidence of attitude and advertising appeal. In marketing terms, it was the appeal to consumer attitudes (Kotler, et al, 1989). By making the advertisements for certain brands of cigarettes visually appealing and including attractive models in poses which suggested the positive aspects of smoking, the tobacco companies could well have reinforced existing beliefs favourable to smoking. The path diagram indicates that the fostering of such beliefs could result in an intention to smoke in the future. Thus cigarette advertising is potentially able to influence the onset of smoking among those

susceptible individuals who perceive smoking to be either a social advantage or who believe that smoking will enhance their attractiveness to the opposite sex. This data was collected from juveniles. Hence the results also suggest that cigarette advertising is potentially able to influence the onset of smoking among juveniles. What is more, it was the younger of the respondents, perhaps those aged 9 through 14 years, who appeared more susceptible to the influence of the advertising.

One notable omission from the path diagram was the variable representing the influence of family members who smoke. The correlation table does indicate that parental smoking is related to a number of factors associated with the respondent's smoking status. However, the omission would indicate that the smoking status of parents is less influential than say, family cohesion and support, or the influence of friends who smoke.

The causal model has been found to be consistent with the data and the resulting path diagram does describe a feasible mechanism by which cigarette advertising could influence the onset of smoking among adolescents. One of the strengths of the path diagram has been its consistency with the results of prior research. However, the present paper does leave a number of questions unanswered. For example, what proportion of the respondents believed that smoking enhanced their attractiveness to the opposite sex? And how many believed that smoking provided a social benefit? In other words, who are the susceptible, and what proportion of society do they comprise? These questions can be answered by a re-analysis of the data. References

Aitken, P., Leathar, D. & O'Hagan, F. (1985) Children's perceptions of advertisements for cigarettes, Social Science and Medicine, 21 (7), 785-797. Aitken, P., Leathar, D. & O'Hagan, F. & Squair, S. (1986) Children's opinions on whether or not cigarette advertisements should be banned, Health Education Journal, 45 (4), 56-64. Aitken, P., Leathar, D. & O'Hagan, F. & Squair, S. (1987) Children's awareness of cigarette advertisements and brand imagery, British Journal of Addiction, 82, 615-622. Aitken, P. & Eadie, D. (1990) Reinforcing effects of cigarette advertising on under-age smoking, British Journal of Addiction, 85, 300-412. Ajzen, I. (1988) Attitudes, Personality, and Behaviour. Stony Stratford: Open University Press. Armstrong, B., Daube, M. & Shean, R. (1988) A smoke-free Australia - our bicentenial resolution? Medical Journal of Australia, 149, 1,2. Armstrong, B., de Klerk, N., Shean, R., Dunn, D. & Dolin, P. (1990) Influence of education and advertising on the uptake of smoking by children, Medical Journal of Australia, 152, 117-124. Ashton, H. & Stepney, R. (1982a) The importance of nicotine in H. Ashton & R. Stepney (Eds) Smoking: Psychology and Pharmacology. London: Tavistock Publications. Ashton, H. & Stepney, R. (1982b) The development of smoking behaviour in H. Ashton & R. Stepney (Eds) Smoking: Psychology and Pharmacology. London: Tavistock Publications. Bandura, A. (1977) Social Learning Theory. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall Inc. Chapman S. & Fitzgerald, B. (1982) Brand preference and advertising recall in adolescent smokers: some implications for health promotion,

American Journal of Public Health, 72 (5), 491-94. Chapman, S. (1986) Great Expectorations: Advertising and the Tobacco Industry. London: Comedia Publishing Group. Charlton, A. (1986) Children's advertisement-awareness related to their views on smoking, Health Education Journal. 45 (2). Chassin, L., Presson, C., Sherman, S., Corty, E. & Olshavsky, R. (1984) Predicting the onset of cigarette smoking in adolescents: a longitudinal study, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 14 (3), 224-43. Coon, D. (1988) Essentials of Psychology: Exploration and Application St. Paul: West Publishing Company. Davis, S. & McLean, S. (1987) Smoking habits and beliefs, and attitudes to cigarette advertising amongst grade six children, Community Health Studies (Supplement) 11 (1), 35-40. Doyle, P. (1990) Building successful brands: the strategic option, Journal of Consumer Marketing. 7 (2), 5-19. Eiser, J., Eiser, C., Gammage, P. & Morgan, M. (1989a) Health locus of control and health beliefs in relation to adolescent smoking, British Journal of Addiction, 84, 1059-65. Eiser, J., Morgan, M., Gammage, P. & Gray, E. (1989b) Adolescent smoking: attitudes, norms and parental influence, British Journal of Social Psychology 28, 193-202. Fishbein, M. & Ajzen, I. (1975) Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behaviour: an Introduction to Theory and Research Reading: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Fisher, D. & Magnus, P. (1981) “Out of the mouths of babes . . . “ The opinions of 10 and 11 year old children regarding the advertising of cigarettes, Community Health Studies, 5, (1). Fisher, L. & Bauman, K. (1988) Influence and selection in the friend-adolescent relationship: findings from studies of adolescent smoking and drinking, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 18 (4), 289- 314. Gerber, R. & Newman, I. (1989) Predicting future smoking of adolescent experimental smokers, Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 18, (2). Goddard, E. (1992) Why children start smoking, British Journal of Addiction, 87, 17-25. Gordon, N. (1986) Never smokers, triers and current smokers: three distinct target groups for school-based anti-smoking programs, Health Education Quarterly, 13 (2), 163-180. Gray, N. & Hill, D. (1975) Patterns of tobacco smoking in Australia, Medical Journal of Australia, 2, 819-822. Hardes, G., Alexander, H., Dobson, A., Lloyd, D., O'Connell, D., Purcell, I. & Leeder, S. (1981) Cigarette smoking and drug use in school children of the Hunter Region, New South Wales I. Medical Journal of Australia, 1, 579-581. Hill, D. & Gray, N. (1982) Patterns of tobacco smoking in Australia, Medical Journal of Australia. 1, 23-25. Hill, D., Willcox, S., Gardner, G. & Jouston, J. (1987) Tobacco and alcohol use among Australian secondary schoolchildren, Medical Journal of Australia, 146, 125-130. Hill, D. (1988) Australian patterns of tobacco smoking in 1986, Medical Journal of Australia, 149, 6-10. Hill, D., White, V., Pain, M. & Gardner, G. (1990) Tobacco and alcohol use among Australian secondary schoolchildren in 1987, Medical Journal of Australia, 152, 124-130. Klitzner, M., Greunewald, P. & Bamberger, E. (1991) Cigarette advertising and adolescent experimentation with smoking, British Journal of Addiction, 86, 287-298. Kotler, P., Chandlere, P., Gibbs, R. & McColl, R. (1989) Marketing in Australia Sydney: Prentice Hall. Krishnamurthi, L. & Raj, S. (1991) An empirical analysis of the relationship between brand loyalty and comsumer price elasticity,

Marketing Science, 10 (2), 172-183. Legislative Council Standing Committee on Social Issues (1990) Drug Abuse Among Youth. Sydney: Parliament of New South Wales (unpublished paper). Maddock, M. (1985) Health attitudes and health awareness in high school students, Research in Science Education, 15, 51-57. Maddock, M. (1987) Social background, sources of information, models of behaviour, attitude, awareness and behaviour in health-related matters, Research in Science Education, 17, 94-103. Marwick, C. (1988) Even 'knowing better' about smoking, other health risks, may not deter adolescents, JAMA, 260 (11), 1512-3. Michell, L. & Stenning, K. (1989) The family atmosphere - growing up in smoke, Health Education Journal, 48 (3), 103-109. Musk, A. & Shean, R. (1988) Passive smoking and health, Medical Journal of Australia, 148, 27,8. Myers, D. (1986) Psychology New York: Worth Pulishers Inc. Nash, J. (1987) Sparking up - smoking and style in school, Health Education Journal, 46 (4). Nelson, S., Budd, R., Eiser, J., Morgan, M., Gammage, P. & Gray, E. (1985) The Avon prevalence study: a survey of cigarette smoking secondary school children, Health Education Journal, 44 (1), 12-14. Nelson, E. & Charlton, A. (1991) Children and advertising: does the voluntary agreement work? Health Education Journal, 50 (1). Noller, P. & Callan, C. (1991) The Adolescent in the Family London: Routledge. Novecek, J., Raskin, R. & Hogan, R. (1991) Why do adolescents use drugs? Age, sex and user differences, Journal of Youth and Adolescence. 20 (5), 475-491. Nunnally, J. (1978) Psychometric Theory. McGraw-Hill Series in Psychology. New York: Mcgraw-Hill Book Company. Pederson, L. & Lefcoe, N. (1986) Change in smoking status among a cohort of late adolescents: prediction and explanation of initiation, maintenance and cessation, International Journal of Epidemiology, 15 (4), 519-25. Pedhazur, E (1982) Multiple Regression in Behavioural Research: Explanation and Prediction New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. Piepe, A., Charlton, P., Morey, J. Yerrell, P. & Ledwith, F. (1986) Does sponsored sport lead to smoking among children? Health Education Journal, 45 (3), 145-48. Potts, H., Gillies, P. & Herbert, M. (1986) Adolescent smoking and opinion of cigarette advertising, Health Education Research, 1 (3), 195-201. Ritchie, (1988) Commerce or con: young people and cigarette advertising, Community Health Studies, 12 (1), 9-15. Robson, B. (1984) Children and smoking, Parent & Citizen, April issue. Shean, R. (1989) Cough up and ad: an attempt to help inoculate children against cigarette advertisements, The ACPHER National Journal, 124, 35-39. Sheth, J., Newman, B. & Gross, B. (1991) Why we buy what we buy: a theory of consumption values, Journal of Business Research 22, 159-170. SPSS Inc. (1986) SPSS - X Users Guide: 2nd Edition Chicago: SPSS Inc. Stanton, W. & Silva, P. (1991) School achievement as a an independent predictor of smoking in childhood and early adolescence, Health Education Journal, 50 (2), 84-88. Sunseri, A., Alberti, J., Kent, N., Schoenberger, J., Sunseri, J. Amuwo, S. & Vickers. P. (1983) Reading, demographic, social and psychological factors related to pre-adolescent smoking and non-smoking behaviors and attitudes, Journal of School Health, 53 (4), 257-63. Sutton, S. (1992) Is taking up smoking a reasoned action? British

Journal of Addiction, 87, 17-25. Swan, A., Creeser, R. & Murray, M. (1990) When and why children first start to smoke, International Journal of Epidemiology, 19 (2), 323-330. Urberg, K. & Robbins, L. (1981) Adolescent perception of the costs and benefits associated with cigarette smoking: sex differences and peer influence, Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 10 (5), 353-361. Urberg, K. & Shyu, S. & Liang, J. (1990) Peer influence in adolescent cigarette smoking, Addictive Behaviors 15, 247-255. Woodward, A., Roberts., L. & Reymolds, S. (1989) "The nanny state strikes back": The South Australian tobacco products control act amendment act, 1988, Community Health Studies, 13 (4), 405. Woodward, A. (1990) Unpublished letter to ACS Public Affairs Committee from ASH (Australia).

Paper presented at the AARE Conference, Newcastle University,

Figure 1 The Model of Attitudinal Influence upon Intention to Smoke to be Tested in this Study

Table 1 Type of Magazines from which Advertisements were Taken

Table 2 The Placement of Cigarette Advertisements within 28 Magazines

Table 3 Categories of Cigarette Advertising observed in the Survey of Magazines Table 4 The Number of Advertisements per Brand Name

Table 6 The Four Attitudinal Scales resulting from the Factor Analysis

Table 8 The Order in which Variables were entered into the Regression Equations

Table 9 Standardised Regression Coefficients arising from the Regression Analysis

Table 10 The Total Effects of the Dependent Variables upon the Ultimate and Penultimate Variables of the Path Diagram