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By Placing Its Thumb on the Scale of Competition, the Commission by This

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By Placing Its Thumb on the Scale of Competition, the Commission by This ....@-- by placing its thumb on the scale of competition, the Commission by this Rule has distorted and restricted competition in other ways affecting pro­ gram producers, syndicators, independent stations, new networks, and network affiliates. The Rule has come to be seen largely as a measure to promote the fortunes of independent and UHF stations. The evidence shows that today many independent stations are more profitable than affiliates. Further, UHF affil­ iates of ABC, CBS and NBC are victims of the Rule, yet on average are fi­ nancially weaker than UHF independents, intended beneficiaries of the Rule. Furthermore, any "handicapII affecting independent UHF stations in the past has been reduced or eliminated, due to forces other than PTAR. The economic costs, penalties, restrictions and consumer harms caused by PTAR cannot be justified by an increase in diversity, because PTAR has not increased diversity. The number of outlets for local broadcast programming is unchanged by the Rule. The number of sources of programming avail­ able to those outlets is reduced by the terms of the Rule. There is no basis to believe that the Rule enhances the diversity of prime-time broadcast program content (or the variety of viewpoints), and there are some reasons to believe that diversity has been reduced. In any event, the flowering of new media alternatives makes irrelevant whatever marginal change in broadcast network affiliate content diversity, if any, can be attributed to the Rule. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 65- Appendix A Data tables Table A-I Prime-time shares by season 1964/65 to 1993/94 Date ABC CBS NBC Fox 1964/65 31.3 31.5 31.3 1965/66 29.5 33.3 32.2 1966/67 28.8 32.9 32.3 1967/68 27.5 34.0 31.4 1968/69 26.0 33.1 33.0 1969/70 26.7 32.3 32.2 1970/71 27.8 31.3 31.3 1971/72 29.5 32.6 31.1 1972/73 28.2 32.0 30.9 1973/74 28.4 33.8 30.0 1974/75 26.8 33.8 32.3 1975/76 31.1 32.2 29.1 1976/77 34.4 29.9 29.0 1977/78 33.4 30.3 29.2 1978/79 34.0 30.1 27.4 1979/80 31.4 31.3 27.8 1980/81 28.7 31.3 26.2 1981/82 28.8 30.3 24.2 1982/83 27.9 28.7 23.8 1983/84 27.1 28.4 23.5 1984/85 24.4 26.7 25.6 1985/86 23.4 26.2 27.5 1986/87 22.4 25.1 28.2 7.3 1987/88 22.5 22.0 26.2 5.9 1988/89 21.0 20.8 25.6 8.9 1989/90 21.5 20.2 24.1 10.6 1990/91 20.8 20.5 21.1 10.5 1991/92 19.9 22.6 20.2 13.0 1992/93 20.3 21.8 18.0 12.4 1993/94 20.1 22.7 17.8 11.4 Source: ABC Affiliate Relations, based on NIELSEN TELEVISION INDEX (various years), network season. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 66- Table A-2 Fox affiliates in the V.S. Year Number 1987 106 1988 115 1989 125 1990 131 1991 134 1992 140 1993 139 1994 141 1994 (Sept.) 199 Source: Fox Broadcasting Company, May of year noted. Fox began to include its secondary affiliates in September 1994. Table-----A-3 dent commercial stations in the-----,V.S. Number Number Number 25 69 160 26 73 186 28 75 214 29 77 255 32 79 293 36 84 310 41 89 321 50 94 339 58 106 345 59 113 355 62 135 422 438 Source: INTV. All data through 1991 are year-end. The 1992 figure is from March 1993. The 1993 figure is from February 1994. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 67- ~-- Table A-4 Low-power television stations in the U.S. Fiscal year Number 1988 523 1989 726 1990 935 1991 1085 1992 1211 1993 1310 Source: FCC Annual Report to Congress. The low-power television service was established March 4, 1982. Table A-5 Cable networks in the U.S. Regional networkst Year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 18 1986 20 1987 24 1988 30 1989 37 1990 37 1991 39 1992 41 1993 42 1994* 43 Source: NCTA, CABLE TELEVISION DEVELOPMENfS Fall 1994. *1994 data are through September. tTELEVISION & CABLE FACTBOOK, SERVICES (various years). ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 68- ~-...,,-- Table A-6 Cable service in the U.S. Homes Year Whouse- Homes Cable subs passed per Cable subs holds passed 1VHH per1VHH (millions) (millions) (millions) (percentage) 1975 68.5 21.8 9.8 31.8 14.3 1976 71.2 23.1 11.8 32.4 16.6 1977 72.9 24.2 12.6 33.2 17.3 1978 74.5 26.8 14.2 36.0 19.1 1979 76.3 29.3 15.8 38.4 20.7 1980 79.9 34.9 19.2 43.7 24.0 1981 81.3 41.8 23.0 51.4 28.3 1982 81.9 49.5 27.5 60.4 33.6 1983 83.3 55.9 31.4 67.1 37.7 1984 84.9 60.5 34.2 71.3 40.3 1985 86.5 64.7 36.7 74.8 42.4 1986 87.7 69.4 39.7 79.2 45.3 1987 89.2 73.1 42.6 81.9 47.8 1988 90.9 77.2 45.7 85.0 50.3 1989 91.6 82.8 49.3 90.4 53.8 1990 90.9 86.0 51.7 94.7 57.0 1991 92.0 88.4 53.4 96.1 58.1 1992 93.1 89.4 55.2 96.1 59.3 1993 93.9 90.6 57.2 96.5 60.9 1994 94.9 91.6 59.0 96.5 62.0 Source: KAGANMEDIAINDEX,]an.ll, 1995, at 7,14; Feb. 26,1993, at 2. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 69- Table A-7 Households subscribing to video programming through backyard dishes, SMATv and MMDS (ill IIlilliolls) Year Backyard dishes SMATV MMDS (wireless) 1983 0.5 1984 0.4 0.4 1985 0.5 0.3 1986 0.1 0.6 0.3 1987 0.3 0.7 0.2 1988 0.4 0.7 0.2 1989 0.6 0.8 0.1 1990 0.7 0.8 0.2 1991 0.8 0.9 0.2 1992 0.9 0.9 0.3 1993 1.4 1.0 0.4 1994 2.1 1.1 0.6 Source: KAGAN MEDIA INDEX, Jan. 11, 1995, at 7, 14. Table A-8 U.S. video cassette expellditures (consumer rentals and sales ill millions of dollars) Households Household Household Year with VCRs video cassette video cassette (millions) ex nditures rental revenue 1983 9.4 218 1,065 1984 16.9 381 1,827 1985 27.5 656 2,910 1986 38.1 853 4,173 1987 47.6 1,108 5,245 1988 55.3 1,591 6,377 1989 61.3 2,258 7,052 1990 66.0 2,829 7,616 1991 71.2 3,229 7,770 1992 76.1 3,739 8,230 1993 80.5 4,386 8,840 1994 84.5 5,008 9,389 Source: KAGAN MEDIA INDEX, Dec. 29, 1994 at 14, Jan. 11, 1995 at 7. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 70- ....i-- Table A-9 Average ABC, CBS and NBC shares of all dayparts by season Cable SlB.ul 1bIBl Basi; 1980/81 3 1 2 1981/82 9 4 5 1982/83 9 4 5 1983/84 11 6 5 1984/85 14 8 6 1985/86 13 8 5 1986/87 19 13 6 1987/88 22 15 7 1988/89 24 17 7 1989/90 27 21 6 1990/91 30 24 6 1991/92 30 24 6 1992/93 30 25 5 1993/94 31 26 5 0 Sources: NIELSEN TELEVISION INDEX for 1980/81 and 1981/82. CABLETELEVISION ADVERTISING BUREAU, INC., CABLE TV FACTS, 1984-1995, (based on NIELSEN TELEVISION INDEX) for 1982/83 through 1993/1994 data. Notes: Shares are not equivalent to percentages ofTVHH and sum to more than 100 percent because some households operate more than one TV set at a time. Independents excludes superstations, and includes Fox affiliates. TBS is counted as a basic cable network starting 1989/90. Superstation WWOR is included in Independents and superstation WGN is included as a basic cable network starting 1992/93. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 71- ••1, _ Table A-tO Average ABC, CBS and NBC shares of U.S. national television advertising revenue ($ figures in millions) Net. as % Year oftotal 1970 57.3 1971 58.2 1972 57.8 1973 58.8 1974 58.9 1975 58.7 1976 57.0 1977 61.1 1978 60.4 1979 61.5 1980 60.4 1981 58.6 1982 56.7 1983 56.3 1984 56.6 1985 53.1 1986 51.5 1987 50.4 1988 50.5 1989 48.1 1990 46.6 1991 46.0 1992 45.8 1993 7,793 2,380 43.7 Source: TELEVISION BUREAU OF ADVERTISING, TRENDS IN GDP AD VOLUME, 1960-1993. * National Cable data are from VERONIS, SUHLER & ASSOCIATES, COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY FORECAST, 1994. **Indudes Fox. ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED - 72- Table A-II Average ABC, CBS and NBC shares of prime-time entertainment series broadcast Network in-house productions as share of broadcast hours (percentage) Season ABC CBS NBC 1969/70 0.00 1.85 1.78 1970/71 0.00 2.75 1.87 1971/72 0.00 2.40 3.11 1972/73 0.00 2.59 0.83 1973/74 0.00 3.38 0.00 1974/75 0.00 2.49 2.49 1975/76 0.00 2.27 0.00 1976/77 0.00 3.38 2.09 1977/78 0.00 0.00 2.59 1978/79 0.00 2.10 4.62 1979/80 0.00 1.07 5.22 1980/81 0.00 0.00 3.80 1981/82 0.00 0.00 8.11 1982/83 0.00 0.00 2.68 1983/84 0.00 0.00 0.46 1984/85 0.67 0.00 1.91 1985/86 2.13 2.29 0.99 1986/87 2.24 0.55 0.19 1987/88 1.79 0.99 0.73 1988/89 0.79 0.00 0.00 1989/90 0.88 4.37 3.87 1990/91 2.46 7.04 1.83 1991/92 4.05 7.74 1.89 1992/93 6.31 8.57 9.40 1993/94 4.78 10.85 7.03 Source: Appendix E.
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