Seventeenth Report by the UK Airprox Board: ‘Analysis of Airprox in UK Airspace’ (July 2006 to December 2006) produced jointly for The Chairman, Civil Aviation Authority and the Chief of the Air Staff, Royal Air Force FOREWORD The primary purpose of this, the seventeenth Report from the UK Airprox Board, is to promote air safety awareness and understanding of Airprox. “Book 7” covers the second half of 2006 in detail, containing findings on almost* all of the Airprox which were reported as occurring within UK airspace in that period and which were fully investigated. In addition to the individual Airprox reports, almost all of which have already been published on the UK Airprox Board website - www. airproxboard.org.uk - this Report contains a range of graphs and tables highlighting many of the key statistics from UK Airprox throughout the whole of 2006. As regards the second half of 2006, 8 Airprox were fully investigated having been reported as occurring in UK airspace during that period, this being 22 less than the average of comparable figures in each of the previous five years. Indeed, as Figure 1 (page 6) illustrates, the total number of Airprox in 2006 as a whole was 159 against a ‘prior five year’ average of 198. This reduction in numbers is spread predominantly over three areas: Airprox involving a commercial air transport (CAT) aircraft with either a ‘general aviation’ or a military aircraft and Airprox involving a ‘general aviation’ aircraft and a military aircraft. Details are given later in this Report. With regard to ‘risk bearing Airprox’ (i.e. Risk A plus Risk B), the broad figures for the second six months of 2006 are very similar to those for the same period in each of the preceding two years. Although this Report is primarily intended for those who in one way or another are involved with aircraft and flying, it is understandable that people generally are interested in the safety of com- mercial air transport. In this regard, the number of risk bearing Airprox in 2006 as a whole and which involve at least one CAT aircraft is the lowest in the period 997-2006: there were no Risk Category A occurrences and six Risk Category B. Further information is given in the Commercial Air Transport section of this Report. It has long been part of the aviation safety culture for people to report openly any safety-related incident. This openness facilitates safety improvement action and the identification of valuable les- sons for the benefit of others. I am pleased to report that this spirit of openness is alive and well, people being keen to ensure that others learn from the unfortunate situations in which they have found themselves and therefore being willing to cooperate fully with UKAB’s investigations. If the collective effort helps to make flying safer – over the UK of course, and in other countries where this publication is also read – then all involved will have felt their efforts worthwhile. For that benefit to be realised, it is essential that this Report be made freely available, in particular to pilots and air traffic controllers. Please would you help the process along by ensuring that your crew room, club house or work place has a copy of this book available for people to read. Peter Hunt Director UK Airprox Board * The one exception is Airprox 147/06, this Airprox occurring within a portion of the UK’s oceanic airspace within which, by ‘standing agreement’, ATS (including radar service) is provided by the Irish Aviation Authority. Again by agreement, this Airprox is being investigated by our colleagues in Ireland. 2 CONTENTS Introduction Page UK Airprox Board (UKAB) Composition 4 UKAB’s Role 4 Status of UKAB Reports 4 Risk Categories 4 Airprox Definition 5 The UKAB Data Set 5 Airprox Reports - Processing Times 5 Airprox Results for 2006 Numbers of Airprox - 2006 6 Trends by User Groups 6 Airspace in which conflicts took place 7 Commercial Air Transport Section CAT Risk Results 7 CAT Airprox Rates 9 CAT Causal Factors 9 General Aviation Section GA Risk Results 0 GA Airprox Rates 11 GA Causal Factors 11 Military Aviation Section Military Risk Results 2 Military Airprox Rates 2 Military Causal Factors Airprox Trends 14 UKAB Safety Recommendations 5 List of Abbreviations 9 AIRPROX Reports: 071/06 and 087/06 to 178/06 excepting 147/06 2 - 290 2 INTRODUCTION UK AIRPROX BOARD (UKAB) COMPOSITION The UKAB is an independent organisation sponsored jointly by the CAA and the MOD to deal with all Airprox reported within UK airspace. There are eight civilian and six military voting Members on the Board which is chaired by the Director UKAB who reports directly to the Chairman CAA and Chief of the Air Staff, Royal Air Force. Board Members together form a team of hands-on practi- tioners with first-hand civil and military ‘know how’ on: • Air Traffic Terminal Control, Area Control and Airfield Control, military and civil; • Commercial Air Transport (CAT) flying, both fixed and rotary wing; • General Aviation (GA) flying, including gliding; and • Military flying, both fixed and rotary wing, by the RN, Army and the RAF. UKAB’s ROLE The UKAB undertakes the following tasks in promoting improved safety standards in the air: • Act as the start point for an investigation process into each incident, generally carried out by the Safety Regulation Group (SRG) of the CAA and/or Military HQs; • Determine what happened plus analyses of the main causal factors; • Assess the risk levels involved; • Make Safety Recommendations where appropriate to reduce the risk of incident recur- rence; and • Publish and distribute full reports so that lessons identified can be shared. STATUS OF UKAB REPORTS The sole objective of the UK Airprox Board is to assess reported Airprox in the interests of enhanc- ing flight safety. It is not the purpose of the Board to apportion blame or liability. To encourage an open and honest reporting environment, names of companies and individuals are not published in UKAB’s reports. RISK CATEGORIES Risk level assessments are made on the basis of what actually took place and not on what may or may not have happened. There are four agreed categories as follows: A Risk of collision An actual risk of collision existed B Safety not assured The safety of the aircraft was compromised C No risk of collision No risk of collision existed D Risk not determined Insufficient information was available to determine the risk involved, or inconclusive or conflicting evidence precluded such determination 4 AIRPROX DEFINITION An Airprox is a situation in which, in the opinion of a pilot or controller, the distance between aircraft as well as their relative positions and speed was such that the safety of the aircraft involved was or may have been compromised. THE UKAB DATA SET The UKAB Airprox database comprises a set of records each of which relates to a specific Airprox. As an investigation proceeds, from first report until the conclusion of the Board’s deliberations, fields within the appropriate record are completed by the UKAB Secretariat. Analysis of the set of records is then possible to produce information such as is published in this Report. This Report follows established practice, giving a broad overview on general trends and then ex- amining in more detail some specific results for each of the three principal airspace user groups Commercial Air Transport (CAT); General Aviation (GA) and Military (MIL). To begin this review, Figure overleaf shows the cumulative distribution of Airprox that were re- ported in 2006 and which were subsequently opened for full investigation. Please note that some events reported as Airprox are subsequently withdrawn and are thus not subject to full investiga- tion. Only the reporter can withdraw an Airprox. Notes regarding the calculation of rates of occurrence:- (1) CAT flying hour totals are supplied by the UK Civil Aviation Authority. Included are figures derived from Eurocontrol data on hours flown by commercial aircraft in transit through UK airspace as well as departures from and arrivals at UK destinations. (2) GA flying hours are supplied by the UK Civil Aviation Authority and are based on aircraft with less than 5,700Kg maximum take-off weight authorised. Gliders and microlights are included; gyroplanes, balloons and airships are excluded. General Aviation utilisation data is derived from the Aircraft Register and is formulated from the submissions provided by aircraft owners when Certificates of Airworthiness or Permits to Fly are renewed. Because Certificates of Airworthi- ness are normally renewed every three years, the hours flown by many aircraft will not yet have been reported. Utilisation figures for the last two-three years, as used in this publication, are therefore ‘best estimates’. Each year, past utilisation figures are reviewed and amended as appropriate with this revised data being reflected into the calculation of GA Airprox rates. (3) Military flying hours are supplied by the Ministry of Defence and its Contractors undertaking production and flight test activities and by US Air Forces Europe. In this Report, numbers of ‘Unknown’ aircraft are added to ‘Untraced’ aircraft and weather balloons to pro- duce the category, ‘Other’. AIRPROX REPORTS - PROCESSING TIMES Although not part of the ‘technical’ aspects of Airprox investigation and assessment, Board Mem- bers and the Secretariat are keen to ensure that the time period between first report of an Airprox, completion of the investigation and subsequent assessment by the Board be kept to a minimum. Over the past two years, the average ‘turnround time’ from first receipt of an Airprox report form to assessment by the Airprox Board has reduced from six to four months.