Developing Skills Foresights, Scenarios and Forecasts
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DEVELOPING SKILLS FORESIGHTS, SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS GUIDE TO ANTICIPATING AND MATCHING SKILLS AND JOBS VOLUME 2 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). More information on the European Union is available on the internet (http://europa.eu). © European Training Foundation / European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training / International Labour Office, 2016 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU institutions or the International Labour Office. Cover design: © Article 00 Compendium on Anticipation and Matching of Skills DEVELOPING SKILLS FORESIGHTS, SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS GUIDE TO ANTICIPATING AND MATCHING SKILLS AND JOBS VOLUME 2 Part A: Martin Bakule, Veˇra Czesaná and Veˇra Havlícˇková Part B: Ben Kriechel, Tomáš Rašovec and Rob Wilson FOREWORD n a context of dynamic and complex labour markets, gathering Iintelligence on current and future skill needs can support better matching of training and jobs, which is of paramount importance for every country in the world. In recent years, better understanding of labour market needs and skills matching have featured high on the policy agenda of many countries, driven by both rapid technological advances and global competition. Skills matching can also help reduce unemployment, particularly among young people. It helps build a better life for individuals by improving employability, social mobility and inclusion. The European Union (EU) places great emphasis on skills anticipation and better matching. The Europe 2020 strategy and, in particular, the Agenda for new skills and jobs, recognise that anticipation and matching approaches and methods can help develop a skilled workforce with the right mix of skills in response to labour market needs, in a way that promotes job quality and lifelong learning. The EU Skills Panorama, launched in 2012, supports the effort to provide better data and intelligence on skill needs in the labour market. The tripartite representation of International Labour Organization (ILO) Member States agreed that countries that have succeeded in linking skills to gains in productivity, employment and development have targeted skills development policy towards three main objectives: • matching supply to current demand for skills; training or through their work and life experience. Education and training systems, in particular, have • helping workers and enterprises adjust to change; a key role to play in ensuring that opportunities are • building and sustaining competencies for future provided for all individuals to develop their skills labour market needs. continually in a lifelong learning perspective, enabling them to adapt to rapidly changing labour market Skills matching is a complex and dynamic process requirements and conditions. involving multiple stakeholders making multiple decisions at different times: individuals and their families, as they Given the complexity and dynamics of the process, make decisions regarding their own education and perfect matching between skills demand and supply training; education, training and labour market policy is neither feasible (especially in rapidly changing labour makers, as they decide on the configuration of education markets and economies) nor necessary, given the fact and training systems, employment policies and that many people can do many different jobs and many investments; training institutions, as they make decisions jobs can be done by people with different skill sets. on the type and content of the training courses to be However, it is important for policy makers to be aware delivered; and employers, as they take decisions on how of the importance of reducing the risk of creating large to train workers and utilise skills. skills gaps that undermine the employability of individuals and impede the productivity of enterprises Jobs are changing rapidly and individuals are also and the growth of economies. changing their skill sets, either through education and Developing skills foresights, scenarios and forecasts 5 International experience suggests that a tomorrow. They target professionals, policy makers, comprehensive labour market information system is research commissioners, social partners and experts the backbone of any education and employment who need an overview of how different anticipation strategy, but no single methodology can generate and matching methodologies can generate reliable sufficient knowledge of labour markets to avoid or labour market information and how information and minimise skills mismatch. The right mix and evidence can be analysed and used for the complementarity of different methods is essential for a development of policy interventions or adjustments in reliable and comprehensive overview of skills demand education and employment strategies. and matching. The compendium brings together state-of-the-art For developing and transition countries, skills matching international good practice and experience and anticipation is becoming an even more complex worldwide. The most common approaches used for task given their particular socio-economic conditions, skills matching and anticipation in different economic weak institutions, capacities and governance systems. and country contexts are reviewed, and their Many developing countries have limited labour market potential and methodological shortcomings for information and more effort and investment is needed generating reliable data and information are to build robust information systems. At the same time, examined. They serve as reference material for even limited evidence can be better, and more readers to explain the scope, added value and efficiently used, with proper methodological tools and limitations of diverse methodologies. The guides also analyses. provide insight into how the results of different methodologies can be analysed to provide To respond to these challenges, the European Training recommendations and policy formulations. Foundation (ETF), the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) and the Any feedback from readers and users of the guides is International Labour Office have joined forces and very welcome, particularly regarding how the next combined expertise and geographic coverage to editions could be improved or made relevant to their develop a compendium of methodological guides on circumstances and policy dilemmas, how they are anticipation and matching of skills supply and demand: used in different countries and contexts, including especially in bringing stakeholders together, and which • Volume 1: how to use labour market information. topics could be added in the future to complement the • Volume 2: how to develop skills foresights, current compendium. scenarios and skills forecasts. • Volume 3: what works at sector level. Chris Evans-Klock, Chief of the Skills and Employability Branch, • Volume 4: what is the role of employment service Employment Policy Department providers. ILO – International Labour Office, Geneva • Volume 5: how to develop and run an establishment Madlen Serban, skills survey. Director • Volume 6: how to carry out tracer studies. ETF – European Training Foundation The six guides complement each other. They include Joachim James Calleja, both qualitative and quantitative approaches, and Director advocate strong social dialogue and institutions Cedefop – European Centre for the Development of conducive to better understanding the skills needs of Vocational Training 6 Guide to anticipating and matching skills and jobs ACKNOWLEDGMENTS he authors would like to thank Hana Ríhová, Zdenˇka Šímová, Tand Marta Salavová for their inputs to Part A of the volume; Pavel Luksha, Luiz A. Cruz Caruso, Marc Bovenschulte, Bernd Dworschak, Samuli Leveälahti, Tomoaki Wada, Gyu-Hee Hwang, Maria João Rodrigues, Anastasia Fetsi, Hajnalka Tarjani, Mike Campbell, and Rebecca Chesney for making available background materials for case studies, and Tatiana Cyro Costa and Erasmo Soto for their inputs to the initial literature review for Part A. Our gratitude goes to all experts who participated in the development of Cedefop’s project Forecasting skills supply and demand in Europe and its methodology, which was used in Part B of the volume. Many thanks to ILO colleague Olga Strietska-Ilina for technical editing, and Christine Evans-Klock, Fernando Vargas, and Theo Sparreboom for their useful comments on the volume. We would like to acknowledge all those experts who participated in the validation workshop for their recommendations. We are grateful for the energy, steering of the publication and support received from Cedefop colleagues Pascaline Descy, Alena Zukersteinova, Vladimir Kvetan and Roula Panagiotou, ILO colleague Olga Strietska-Ilina, and ETF colleagues Anastasia Fetsi, Timo Kuusela and Mara Arno. Developing skills foresights, scenarios and forecasts 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS 8 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14 Purpose of skills foresighting and forecasting 14 Approaches: foresighting versus forecasting 14 Implementation 15 INTRODUCTION 16 Foresights and skills anticipation: Part A 16 Skills forecasts: Part B 17 Foresights versus quantitative