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BRAZIL: BOOM, BUST, and the ROAD to RECOVERY BRAZIL: BOOM, BUST, and the ROAD to RECOVERY EDITORS Antonio Spilimbergo and Krishna Srinivasan I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution © 2018 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: Spilimbergo, Antonio. | Srinivasan, Krishna. | International Monetary Fund. Title: Brazil: boom, bust, and the road to recovery / editors: Antonio Spilimbergo and Krishna Srinivasan. Description: [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: ISBN 978-1-48433-974-9 (paper) Subjects: LCSH: Brazil—Economic conditions. | Economic development— Brazil. | Fiscal policy—Brazil. Classification: LCC HC187.B73 2018 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or management. Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A. Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.elibrary.imf.org www.imfbookstore.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Contents Acknowledgments ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������v Foreword ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������vii PART I. OVERVIEW 1 Overview: Brazil’s Road to Recovery ���������������������������������������������������������������������������3 Antonio Spilimbergo and Krishna Srinivasan 2 An Eventful Two Decades of Reforms, Economic Boom, and a Historic Crisis �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15 Alfredo Cuevas, Antonio Spilimbergo, Krishna Srinivasan, and Alejandro Werner PART II. GROWTH 3 Current Constraints on Growth ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 41 Armando Castelar Pinheiro and Paulo de Carvalho Lins 4 Brazil’s Productivity Challenge: Structural Change versus Economy-Wide Innovation-Based Improvements ���������������������������������������������� 55 João M. P. De Mello, Isabela Duarte, and Mark Durtz 5 Structural Reform Priorities for Brazil ��������������������������������������������������������������������� 75 Nina Biljanovska and Damiano Sandri 6 Brazil in the New World Economic Order ��������������������������������������������������������������� 95 Marcello Estevão and Fernando Coppe Alcaraz 7 Trade Liberalization and Active Labor Market Policies �����������������������������������111 Carlos Góes, Alexandre Messa, Carlos Pio, Eduardo Leoni, and Luis Gustavo Montes PART III. SOCIAL PROGRESS 8 Inequality in Brazil: A Closer Look at the Evolution in States �����������������������127 Carlos Góes and Izabela Karpowicz 9 Poverty and Inequality in Brazil and Latin America �����������������������������������������139 Ravi Balakrishnan, Frederik Toscani, and Mauricio Vargas iii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution iv Contents PART IV. STRENGTHENING THE FISCAL FRAMEWORK 10 Modernizing Fiscal Institutions ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������173 Paulo Medas 11 Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil ������������������������������������������������191 Alfredo Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Mauricio Soto, Marina Mendes Tavares, and Vivian Malta 12 The Subnational Fiscal Crisis �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������207 Fabian Bornhorst, Guillerme Mercês, and Nayara Freire 13 Rightsizing the Public Sector Wage Bill ����������������������������������������������������������������223 Izabela Karpowicz and Mauricio Soto PART V. CHALLENGES TO THE MONETARY AND FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK 14 The Conquest of Lower Interest Rates in Brazil—Where Does Neutral Stand? ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������241 Roberto Accioly Perrelli and Shaun K. Roache 15 Interest Rates and Inflation ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������255 Troy Matheson 16 Earmarked Credit and Public Banks �����������������������������������������������������������������������267 Steen Byskov 17 In Pursuit of Anchored Inflation Expectations in Brazil: The Role of Transparency and Communication ������������������������������������������������279 Yan Carrière-Swallow and Juan Yépez PART VI. FIGHTING CORRUPTION 18 Corruption in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Brazil Fare? ���������295 Carlos E. Goncalves and Krishna Srinivasan 19 Legal Issues in Fighting Money Laundering and Related Corruption ������315 Richard Berkhout 20 Lava Jato, Mani Pulite, and the Role of Institutions �����������������������������������������325 Maria Cristina Pinotti 21 Lessons from Italy’s Anti-corruption Efforts ��������������������������������������������������������341 Alessandro Merli Author Biographies ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������349 Index �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������357 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Acknowledgments This book has been a collective endeavor involving both IMF staff and senior policymakers, as well as leading academics and others from Brazil. We would like to thank the contributing authors for their close collaboration and enthusiasm to work on topics chosen in the book. The research presented in this book has been drawn from work done by IMF staff in the context of the annual Article IV policy consultations with the Brazilian authorities and other stakeholders, and has benefited from comments and feedback provided by several individuals at the IMF and elsewhere, including Alejandro Werner, director, Western Hemisphere Department, and Alfredo Cuevas, assistant director, European Department. Valentina Flamini, senior economist, and Nina Biljanovska, economist—both of the Western Hemisphere Department—provided valuable assistance in finalizing various chapters. Linda Kean and Linda Long of the IMF’s Communications Department efficiently managed all aspects related to the production of the book, and we are grateful for their excellent work. Excellent research assistance provided by Henrique Barbosa and Genevieve Lindow, and administrative assistance by Cristina Barbosa, is gratefully acknowledged. Antonio Spilimbergo and Krishna Srinivasan Editors v ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Foreword From World War II until the 1980s and again for much of the 1990s, Brazil was a fast-growing emerging economy, with growth averaging about 8 percent a year. The recession of 1981, with the onset of the Latin American debt crisis, was an adverse turning point, with Brazil experiencing a contraction in activity for the first time in three decades. It also marked a structural downshift in growth, which has averaged just over 2.6 percent per year since then. Brazil has seen falling pro- ductivity, with only short-lived upturns in growth and the economy reverting to a slower long-term trend. Brazil’s lackluster growth performance, however, masks important improve- ments in the quality of institutions and macroeconomic frameworks in the 1990s, beginning with the Plano Real in 1994, the floating of the real, the adoption of inflation targeting, and the passing of the Fiscal Responsibility Law by Congress. These reforms contributed to greater stability and significant social progress in the 2000s. The global financial crisis produced another change in fortunes for Brazil, as both unfavorable external conditions and domestic policy shortcomings morphed into a deep and prolonged recession. Brazil now faces a moment of opportunity, with the economy emerging gradually from the recession, albeit with significant domestic and external downside risks. Brazil can turn the corner by pursuing much-needed reforms to place the economy on a stronger footing. But this will require strong political leadership, a sustained commitment by policymakers to make the right, albeit difficult choices, and partnership among all stakeholders, many of whom are fatigued by reform and have experienced falling living standards. In this regard, this book is timely and important in many respects. It provides rich analysis by assessing Brazil’s economic performance over the past several years from a variety of angles, with a view to understanding the factors that have shackled growth and social progress, and examining policies that have worked well and those that have not. The book draws upon and synthesizes extensive work done at the IMF and in Brazil by leading policymakers, academics, and think tanks, and serves as a fresh platform to deepen our close engagement and policy dialogue with policymakers, academ- ics, and civil society. I hope the book will spark interest and healthy debate on the economic chal- lenges facing Brazil, and help guide policy choices to place the country on the path to greater prosperity and social progress. David Lipton First Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund vii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution
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