From the Covid-19 Response to Recovery and Resilience-Building

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From the Covid-19 Response to Recovery and Resilience-Building FROM THE COVID-19 RESPONSE TO RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE-BUILDING ANALYSES OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN UGANDA JUNE 2020 LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND: FROM THE COVID-19 RESPONSE TO RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE-BUILDING Leaving No One Behind: From the COVID-19 Response to Recovery and Resilience-Building Analyses of the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Uganda ANALYSES OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN UGANDA | iii LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND: FROM THE COVID-19 RESPONSE TO RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE-BUILDING © United Nations in Uganda, 2020 iv | A PUBLICATION BY UNITED NATIONS IN UGANDA LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND: FROM THE COVID-19 RESPONSE TO RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE-BUILDING Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.....................................................................................................................................................................vi LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS............................................................................................................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................................................................viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background: COVID-19 Trends and Broader Implications............................................................................................1 1.2. Analytical Framework: Identifying Key Areas of Potential Impact.................................................................................3 CHAPTER 2: MACRO-ECONOMIC AGGREGATES AND REAL SECTORS...................................................................................6 2.1 Macro-economic Aggregates...............................................................................................................................................7 2.2 Manufacturing........................................................................................................................................................21 2.4 Policy Recommendations..................................................................................................................................................29 CHAPTER 3. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY.............................................................................................................40 3.1 Agriculture Sector................................................................................................................................................................42 3.2 Food security........................................................................................................................................................................54 3.3 Policy Recommendations..................................................................................................................................................58 CHAPTER 4. PRIVATE SECTOR..........................................................................................................................................60 4.1 The economic shock of COVID-19 on informal micro and small enterprises....................................................62 4.2 The effect on women employed in the informal sector: A case of market and street vendors in Kampala and Northern Uganda.................................................................................................................................69 4.3 Recovery period for informal micro and small enterprises........................................................................................73 4.4 The effect on formal small and medium enterprises...................................................................................................75 4.5 Policy Recommendations.................................................................................................................................................84 CHAPTER 5. SERVICE DELIVERY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT...........................................................................................86 5.1 State of Human Development in Uganda.....................................................................................................................88 5.2 COVID-19 Risk Factors: Implications for Human Development and Service Delivery.........................................89 5.3 Impacts on health and health sector service delivery............................................................................................91 5.4 Assessment of Local Government service delivery capacity to respond to COVID-19........................................92 5.5 Policy Recommendations...............................................................................................................................................104 CHAPTER 6. POVERTY AND VULNERABILITY....................................................................................................................106 6.1 Poverty rates.......................................................................................................................................................................111 6.2 Assessing potential effectiveness of social protection programmes....................................................................128 6.3 Policy Recommendations................................................................................................................................................136 CHAPTER 7. LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR SDGS.........................................................................................................138 7.1 Impact of COVID-19 on SDGs achievement...................................................................................................................142 7.2 Policy Recommendations................................................................................................................................................147 CHAPTER 8. CONCLUSIONS.............................................................................................................................................149 REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................................................................151 ANNEXES..............................................................................................................................................................................................158 Annex I. Vulnerability and Resilience: Methodology Detail and Supplementary Tables.........................................................................159 Annex II: iSDG Model Methodology Detail.............................................................................................................................................................173 ANALYSES OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN UGANDA | v LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND: FROM THE COVID-19 RESPONSE TO RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE-BUILDING Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the United Nations (UN) Country Team in Uganda in line with the UN Secretary-General’s recommendation on the need for socioeconomic support to countries and societies in the face of COVID-19 as espoused in the Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity report and the UN Framework on Immediate Socio-Economic Response to COVID-19. The report fits within the three core areas of the UN’s efforts to save lives, protect people, and support countries to better rebuild from COVID-19. It complements the health response, led by the World Health Organization (WHO), and the humanitarian response, outlined in the UN-led COVID-19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan and sets a pathway for recovery and future resilience-building. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has been designated by the UN Secretary-General as the technical lead on the socioeconomic pillar of the UN support. In Uganda, UNDP provided technical leadership to the drafting and consolidation of the report under overall leadership of the UN Resident Coordinator. The report leveraged the core competencies and comparative advantages of UN entities that provided substantive and technical inputs into different aspects of the report. This collaboration enriched the report tremendously by bringing together many different perspectives, but all anchored on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Leave No One Behind (LNOB) principles. The specific chapter contributions were as follows: CHAPTER 2: By UNDP, with inputs from the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) on remittances, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) on trade; CHAPTER 3: By Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), with additional inputs on environment from UNDP and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA); CHAPTER 4: By UNCDF, with analysis of impacts on informally employed women in markets by UN Women and reviewed by the International Labour Organization (ILO); CHAPTER 5: By the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) on the COVID-19 risk index, assessment of health and health sector knock-on effects by World Health Organisation (WHO), UNCDF on Local Government service delivery analysis, UNDP on the National Human Development Index, and United Nations Educational,
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