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Evaluation of Reference Gages for Passby Flow Determinations and Monitoring in the Susquehanna River Basin

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Evaluation of Reference Gages for Passby Flow Determinations and Monitoring in the Susquehanna River Basin ____________________________________________________________________________ Evaluation of Reference Gages for Passby Flow Determinations and Monitoring in the Susquehanna River Basin Publication No. 305 April 2017 ______________________________________________________________________________ Can Liu Hydrologist Zhenxing Zhang Contractor, Water Resources Engineer John W. Balay Manager, Planning & Operations Susquehanna River Basin Commission Basil Seggos, New York Commissioner James M. Tierney, New York Alternate Paul D’Amato, New York Alternate Scott Foti, New York Alternate Patrick McDonnell, Pennsylvania Commissioner Dana Aunkst, Pennsylvania Alternate Jennifer Orr, Pennsylvania Alternate Ben Grumbles, Maryland Commissioner Saeid Kasraei, Maryland Alternate Virginia Kearney, Maryland Alternate Brig. General William H. Graham, U.S. Commissioner Colonel Edward P. Chamberlayne, U.S. Alternate David J. Leach, U.S. Alternate Amy M. Guise, U.S. Alternate Andrew D. Dehoff, P.E., Executive Director The Susquehanna River Basin Commission was created as an independent agency by a federal-interstate compact* among the states of Maryland and New York, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and the federal government. In creating the Commission, the Congress and state legislatures formally recognized the water resources of the Susquehanna River Basin as a regional asset vested with local, state, and national interests for which all the parties share responsibility. As the single federal-interstate water resources agency with Basinwide authority, the Commission's goal is to coordinate the planning, conservation, management, utilization, development, and control of Basin water resources among the public and private sectors. *Statutory Citations: Federal - Pub. L. 91-575, 84 Stat. 1509 (December 1970); Maryland - Natural Resources Sec. 8-301 (Michie 1974); New York - ECL Sec. 21-1301 (McKinney 1973); and Pennsylvania - 32 P.S. 820.1 (Supp. 1976). This report is available on our web site (www.srbc.net). For a CD or hard copy, contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission, 4423 N. Front Street, Harrisburg, Pa. 17110-1788, Phone: (717) 238-0423, Fax: (717) 238- 2436, E-mail: [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 3 1.1 Regulatory Authority ...................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Passby Flow Policy ......................................................................................................... 3 2.0 PREDICTIONS IN UNGAGED BASINS ......................................................................... 5 2.1 Approaches and Tools..................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Reference Gage Selection ............................................................................................... 6 2.3 Passby Flow Compliance ................................................................................................ 7 3.0 PURPOSE AND SCOPE .................................................................................................... 7 4.0 METHODS ......................................................................................................................... 8 4.1 Withdrawal Site Selection............................................................................................... 8 4.2 Streamflow Monitoring ................................................................................................. 12 4.3 Field Discharge Measurements ..................................................................................... 13 5.0 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ........................................................................................... 15 5.1 Reference Gage and Withdrawal Site Flow Correlations ............................................. 15 5.1.1 Commission Passby Flow Reference Gages ........................................................... 15 5.1.2 Baseline Streamflow Estimator (BaSE) Reference Gages...................................... 18 5.2 Annual Mean and Low Flow Statistics ......................................................................... 21 5.3 Monthly Low Flow Statistics ........................................................................................ 22 6.0 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................... 24 6.1 Discharge Measurement Accuracy ............................................................................... 24 6.2 Reference Gage Suitability ........................................................................................... 24 6.3 Flow Statistic Estimation .............................................................................................. 25 7.0 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................... 26 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................. 26 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................ 27 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 28 TABLES Table 1. Former Policy 2003-01 Passby Flow Determination Specifications ............................ 4 Table 2. Low Flow Protection Policy Aquatic Resource Class, De minimis Withdrawal, and Passby Flow Criteria ..................................................................................................... 5 Table 3. Withdrawal Sites, with Passby Flows Monitored Using Onsite Flow Measurements, and Their Corresponding Reference Gages ................................................................ 10 Table 4. Withdrawal Sites with Passby Flows Monitored Using Offsite Trigger Gages ......... 11 Table 5. Commission Passby Flow Gage, BaSE Reference Gages, and Withdrawal Site Flow Correlation Results...................................................................................................... 20 i FIGURES Figure 1. Selected Withdrawal Sites with Corresponding Reference/Trigger Gages .................. 9 Figure 2. Schematic of Desirable Single and Paired Baseflow Measurements .......................... 13 Figure 3. Discharge Measurement Taken on November 9, 2011 at Little Conewago Creek, York County, PA ........................................................................................................ 14 Figure 4. Discharge Measurement Taken on July 22, 2013 at Little Muncy Creek, Lycoming County, PA .................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 5. Plot of Discharge Measurements at Withdrawal Sites with Concurrent Streamflow at Associated Reference Gages ....................................................................................... 18 Figure 6. Estimates of 7Q10 Flow for Withdrawal Sites Based on StreamStats Regression and Drainage Area Ratio Methods .................................................................................... 21 Figure 7. Estimates of Mean Flow for Withdrawal Sites Based on StreamStats Regression and Drainage Area Ratio Methods .................................................................................... 22 Figure 8. Estimates of Monthly Percent Exceedance Flow Based on Reference Gage Drainage Area Ratio (Commission) and Synthesized Daily Flow Time Series (BaSE) Methods....................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 9. Source for Withdrawal Site A10 at Sweet Arrow Spring, Schuylkill County, PA ..... 25 ii GLOSSARY Average Daily Flow (ADF) – The average of mean daily streamflows for a period of record. de minimis Withdrawal – If the surface water or groundwater withdrawal impact is minimal in comparison to the natural or continuously augmented flow of a stream or river, no passby flow was required. This is referred to as the de minimis withdrawal. Passby Flow – A prescribed streamflow threshold at which a regulated withdrawal must cease to limit instream impacts during low flow conditions. Percent Exceedance Flow (Px) – The flow that is exceeded a certain percent of the time. For example, a June 95 percent exceedance (P95) flow represents a low flow that has been exceeded 95 percent of all days in June over the period of record. Reference Gages – Selected USGS stream gages to best represent hydrologic conditions at ungaged sites based on similar watershed characteristics. Reference gages are required to have a minimum of 10 recent years of record and are used to calculate streamflow statistics and determine passby flow thresholds. Seven-day, Ten-year (7Q10) Low Flow – Annual 7-day minimum flow with a 10-year recurrence interval. Trigger Gages – Selected real-time USGS stream gages to best represent hydrologic conditions at ungaged sites based on similar watershed characteristics. Trigger gages are used for low flow monitoring, operations, and compliance. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In its review of water
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