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______________________________________________________________________________ Cumulative Water Use and Availability Study for the Susquehanna River Basin Publication No. 303 August 2016 ______________________________________________________________________________ John W. Balay, P.H. Manager, Planning & Operations Zhenxing Zhang, Ph.D., P.E., P.H. Contractor, Water Resources Engineer Jeffrey L. Zimmerman, Jr. GIS Analyst Pierre O. MaCoy, P.G. Hydrogeologist Charles G. Frank Web Application Developer Graham D. Markowitz Hydrologist Can Liu Hydrologist James M. Tierney, New York Commissioner Kenneth P. Lynch, New York Alternate Peter Freehafer, New York Alternate Patrick McDonnell, Pennsylvania Commissioner Kelly Jean Heffner, Pennsylvania Alternate Laura Mohr, Pennsylvania Alternate Ben Grumbles, Maryland Commissioner Saeid Kasraei, Maryland Alternate Virginia Kearney, Maryland Alternate Brig. General William H. Graham, U.S. Commissioner Colonel Edward P. Chamberlayne, U.S. Alternate David J. Leach, U.S. Alternate Amy M. Guise, U.S. Alternate Andrew D. Dehoff, P.E., Executive Director The Susquehanna River Basin Commission (Commission) was created as an independent agency by a federal-interstate compact* among the states of Maryland and New York, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and the federal government. In creating the Commission, the Congress and state legislatures formally recognized the water resources of the Susquehanna River Basin as a regional asset vested with local, state, and national interests for which all the parties share responsibility. As the single federal-interstate water resources agency with basin-wide authority, the Commission's goal is to coordinate the planning, conservation, management, utilization, development, and control of basin water resources among the public and private sectors. *Statutory Citations: Federal - Pub. L. 91-575, 84 Stat. 1509 (1970); MD. CODE ANN., ENVIR. § 5-301 (2015); N.Y. ENVTL. CONSERV. LAW § 21-1301 (McKinney 2015); and Act 1968-181, P.L. 368, § 1, 32 P.S. § 820.1 (1976). This report is available on our web site (www.srbc.net) by selecting Public Information/Technical Reports. For a CD or hard copy, contact the Susquehanna River Basin Commission, 4423 N. Front Street, Harrisburg, Pa. 17110, Phone: (717) 238-0423, Fax: (717) 238-2436, E-mail: [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Regulatory Authority........................................................................................................ 4 1.2 Planning Context .............................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Related Studies ................................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................... 5 2.0 WATER USE ....................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Previous Consumptive Use Estimates .............................................................................. 8 2.2 Regulated Consumptive Use .......................................................................................... 10 2.3 Estimated Unregulated Consumptive Use...................................................................... 12 2.3.1 Self-Supplied Residential........................................................................................ 12 2.3.2 Livestock ................................................................................................................. 13 2.3.3 Irrigation ................................................................................................................. 13 2.4 Projected Consumptive Use ........................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Electric Power Generation ...................................................................................... 14 2.4.2 Natural Gas ............................................................................................................. 14 2.4.3 Public Water Supply ............................................................................................... 15 2.4.4 Agriculture .............................................................................................................. 15 2.4.5 Other Sectors ........................................................................................................... 15 2.5 Consumptive Use Results .............................................................................................. 16 2.5.1 Baseline 2014 Consumptive Use ............................................................................ 16 2.5.2 Projected 2030 Consumptive Use ........................................................................... 22 3.0 HYDROLOGIC ANALYSES ........................................................................................... 26 3.1 Gaged Reaches ............................................................................................................... 26 3.1.1 Flow Frequency Analysis ....................................................................................... 28 3.1.2 Flow Statistics for Gaged Reaches ......................................................................... 30 3.2 Ungaged Reaches ........................................................................................................... 30 3.2.1 Reference Gages ..................................................................................................... 30 3.2.2 Flow Statistics ......................................................................................................... 31 3.2.3 Watershed Characteristics ....................................................................................... 31 3.2.4 Regional Regression Analysis ................................................................................ 34 4.0 WATER CAPACITY ........................................................................................................ 35 4.1 Quantitative Approaches ................................................................................................ 36 4.1.1 Baseflow Recurrence Interval ................................................................................. 36 4.1.2 Low Flow Margin ................................................................................................... 37 4.1.3 Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration ........................................................... 37 4.1.4 Other Methods ........................................................................................................ 37 4.2 Water Capacity Metrics .................................................................................................. 39 4.2.1 Previous Commission Metrics ................................................................................ 39 4.2.2 Baseflow Recurrence Interval Metrics .................................................................... 39 4.2.3 Low Flow Margin Metrics ...................................................................................... 39 4.2.4 Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration Metric ................................................ 40 i 4.3 Candidate Water Capacity Metrics ................................................................................ 41 4.4 Selected Water Capacity Threshold ............................................................................... 43 4.5 Water Capacity Results .................................................................................................. 45 5.0 WATER AVAILABILITY ................................................................................................ 48 5.1 Previously Identified Stressed or Critical Watersheds ................................................... 48 5.2 Baseline 2014 Water Availability for HUC-10 Watersheds .......................................... 51 5.3 Baseline 2014 Water Availability for Focus Watersheds .............................................. 55 5.3.1 South Branch Conewago Creek Watershed ............................................................ 55 5.3.2 Halter Creek Watershed .......................................................................................... 57 5.3.3 Meshoppen Creek Watershed ................................................................................. 59 5.4 Projected 2030 Water Availability for HUC-10 Watersheds ......................................... 61 6.0 PROTECTION, MITIGATION AND ENHANCEMENT MEASURES ......................... 64 6.1 Water Use Reductions .................................................................................................... 64 6.2 Passby Flows .................................................................................................................. 66 6.3 Conservation Releases.................................................................................................... 68 6.4 Consumptive Use Mitigation Releases .........................................................................
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