World Bank Document

RESTRICTED FAL iur i PS 2 VOL. 1

Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized

PROPOSALS FOR AN ACT]ION PROGRAM

EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT Public Disclosure Authorized

July 17, 1970 Public Disclosure Authorized

Special Projects Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

US$ 1.00 = Rupees (Rs) h.762 Rs 1.00 = US$ 0.21 Rs 1 million = US$ 210,000

WRP.Tr,1T.q AwnD MA ITRR.S

1 Acre (ac) = n.lin hect.re (ha 1 mile (mi) = 1.609 kilometers (km) 1 mile (sq mi) = 6)0rsqur ac = 259 ha

1 long ton (lg ton) = 1.016 metric tons (m ton) J. acre-foot (ac-ft) - 1,23I ic meters (rIL/ 1 cubic foot per second

(Local units)

lmaund (rnu) = .0367 lg ton 1 maund = 82.2 lb

±NJT1A-L AND ACRO'kr(iS

EPADC - East Pakistan Agricultural Development Corporation EPWAPDA - East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority IRRI - International Rice Research Institute, Philippines PARD - Pakistan Academy for Rural Development (at Comilla) SIDA - Swedish International Development Authority TIP - Thana Irrigation Programme UNDP - United Nations Development Programme 1JSAID - United States Agency for International Development USGS - United States Geological Survey

GLOSSARY anon - rice planted before the monsoon and harvested in November or December aus - rice planted in March and harvested in June or July boro - winter rice planted in October or November and harvested in March or April khal .al aua1atrcus kharif - summer (wet) cropping season rabi - winter (dry) cropping season r~AC'r DAV'TC'rA Ar'DTr?,YTMT'1,~ ESUISJA.RUL.iUIL PdNU WATLR UVLV1LUrOEN1 PROPOSALS FOR AN ACTION PROGRAM

Table of Contents

Page No.

CHAP'TER I PERSPECTIVE i

CnTArL II PROVINCE-WIDE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGiY 9

Rice Varieties 11 Inputs 11 Low-lift Pumps ii Tubewells 12 Increasing Returns trom Existing Projects 12 Irrigation Demonstration 12 Surface Water Irrigation and Flood Protection 12 Phasing of Projects 13 Adaptable Water Distribution Systems 13 Rural Infrastructure 14 Flood Control 14 Available Resources and Rate of Development 14 Review of Priority Projects/Program 14 Studies-cum-Action Pro,gram 15

CHAPTER III ACTION PROGRAM 17

CHAPTER IV ECONOMIC SETTING 23

CHAPTER V AGRICULTURE 28

Introduction 28 past Performance 29 Agricultural Setting 39 The Third Five-Year Plan and the Program to Attain Self-Sufficiency in Food 48 Land Capability Data Generated by the UNDP Soils and Land Capability Survey during the Third Plan 53 Action Program in the Fourth Five-Year Plan 58 Objectives for the East Pakistan Economy 58 Main Components of the Action Program 60 Accelerated Rice Production Program 61 Fertilizer Program 65 Pest Control 68 Export, Industrial and Cash Crops 72 Table of Contents Cont'd

Page No.

Integrated Marketing and Crop Prndurtion Pronrrnnm fnr Crons Other than Rice 78 Fis~heries~ 79 Livestock 81 Agrirtilttiural Credit 82 Agricultural Research 83 Agrirtil tuirnl FtensIcon 85 Transportation 87 Prva4t_tex Tnitiativeo 88

CH1APTER VI WATER PROGRAM 89

Pon4 srQ On Low-lift Pumps 92 Tubewell Trrgation 9 Increasing Output from Existing Projects 100 Multi-purpose Projects 105 Flood Control Aspects 109 W.ater Balance Aspects10 Special Investigations 111 VIlood Consulting Group 114 Basic Data 115

CHAPTER VII RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE 119

The Rural Works Program 120 Thana Level Administration 122 The Thana Irrigation Program 123 Integrated Rural Development Program (cooperatives) 125

CHAPTER VIII COMPREHENSIVE STUDY AND FLOOD CONTROL INVESTIGATIONS 128

Scope and Methodology 128 Flood Con.trol Planning 131 Analysis of Inter-Sectoral Links 133 Program Formulation and Evaluation 133 Administrative Aspect 134 System Analysis and Methodology Guidance 134 Interim Reporting 134 Organization and Staffing 135 Study Costs 136

ANNEX I COMPREHENSIVE STUDY: GUIDELINES FOR TERMS OF REFERENCE

ANNEX 2 NEW MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECTS - FEASIBILITY STUDIES ALREADY AVAILABLi - iii -

TABLES AND IAPS

TAB7LS TITTES

3. 1 ( .o-4tments1070/71-1972/73

4I.UtUM U &l UflO *J~%% ~U .. S ~ S. 3.2) Forecasts of Disburse,ment-s Ile-,, Co.mmitm,ents% *fUIC L UL .L W.L UUL %4.kb4'~ ..JUI A. L. L .~LO

3.n3 Forecsst L JJ'sburseb-Wents (CoUmUiUtmuents Already Made)

3.4 Commitments Beyond 1972-73

4.1 East Pakistan: Gross Domestic Product at Constant Factor Cost 1959/60 - 1969/70

4.2 Pakistan: Gross Domestic Product at Constant Factor Cost i959.6u - i96o9iu

4.3 East Pakistan: Gross Domestic: Produce at Current Factor Cost 1959/60 - 1969/70

4.4 Pakistan: Gross Domestic Product at Current Factor Cost l959/60 - 1969/70

4.5 East Pakistan: Overall and Sectoral Growth Rates 1959/60 - 1969/70

4.6 West Pakistan: Overall and Sectoral Growth Rates 1959/60 - i969/70

4.7 Pakistan: Overall and Regional Investment Rates 1963/64 - 1969/70

4.8 Foreign Merchandise Trade

4.9 Public Plan Development Expenditures

4.10 East Pakistan, Provincial Government Revenue and Expenditure

4.11 East Pakistan: Tax Revenues

4.12 West Pakistan: Tax Revenues

4.13 Pakistan: Provincial Governments' Debt Service to Central Governmeni

5.1 East Pakistan - Land Utilization

5.2 East Pakistan - The Provincial Average Monthly Retail Price of Coarse Rice

5.3 East Pakistan - Availability of Foodgrains for Domestic Consumption 1955/56 to 1968/69 - iv -

.1:_AD __T _LD_ c4n7 j.q' A DI tC 1,w_* L Z..ULaI 'r 'r V C-'---.-- '..-v

- .* Lt; rdLr1zwLuL - LSC VLUL * '-'kACb * V* } - ~ 5., East r'aklis tanr= Production of Main A gr-icult-uralI Cropas

5.6 East Pakistart - R'Le Alrea, LP,odUuctiLon anlU i.LdLu

5.7 East Pakistan - "wleat Area, ProductiLon anu Yiel

5.8 Pakistan - Foreign Exchange Receipts from Merchandise Exports

5.9 East Pakistan - jute Acreage, Production and Yield

5.10 World Exports of Jute Manufactures

5.11 Exports of Raw jute and Allied Fibers from the Cnier Producing Countries

5.12 East Pakistan - Area and Sugarcane Production

5.13 East Pakistan - Data on Sugar Industry

5.14 Pakistan - Tea - Production, Supply and Imports

5.15 East Pakistan - Tobacco Production and Yield

5.16 East Pakistan - Area and Production of Pulses

5.17 East Pakistan - Oilseeds Acreages Production and Yield

5.18 East and West Pakistan - Production of Oilseeds, Oils and Cakes - 1964/65 to 1969/70

5.19 Production and Import of Edible Oils Pakistan 1964/64 - 1969/70

5.20 East Pakistan - Area and Production of Coconuts

5.21 Distribution of Fertilizers

5.22 East Pakistan - Area Irrigated by Low Lift Pumps Provided by the E.P.A.D.C.

5.23 East Pakistan - The Number of Installed Tubewells - ADC

5.24 East Pakistan - Irrigated Areas

5.25 East Pakistan - Current Use of Pesticides and the Projection for the Fourth Five-Year Plan

5.26 East Pakistan - Cumulative Distribution of Farms and Farm Area by SizP TADLEB S LITLE

5.J2 East Pakistan - Fragmentation of Farms in the Entire East Pakistan Province in 1960

5.28 East Pakistan - Land Tenure

5.29 Source of Rural Credit in East Pakistan (1966)

5.30 East Pakistan - Institutional Agricultural Credit Annual Volume of Lending

5.31 East Pakistan - Development Expenditure by Sectors Under the third Five-Year Plan 1965/66 - 1969/70

5.32 East Pakistan - Agriculture (Not Including Major Water Control Works) (Estimated Third Five-Year Plan Expenditures and. Proposed Allocation under the Fourth Five-Year Plan)

5.33 East Pakistan - Area Suitable for Irri Rice Cultivation Assuming that the Need for Irrigation is not the Limiting Factor ('000 acres)

5^.34 East Pakistan - Crop Production Targets under the Tentative Fourth Five-Year Plan

5.35 East Pakistan - Rice Production Projection made by the Department of Planning

5.36 East Pakistan - Crop-Wise Annual Targets for Plant Protection Services During the Fourth Plan Period (1970-75)

5.37 East Pakistan - Projected Use of Pesticides by Crop During the Fourth Five-Year Plan

5.38 East Pakistan - Requirements of Imports and Exports

5.39 East Pakistan - Traffic Handled by East Pakistani Railways

6.1 East Pakistan - Cost Estimates of Water Proiects

6.2 Areas Irri2ated and Protected from Flooding

8.1 Special Comprehensive Study, Estimated Costs - vi -

MAPS TITLES

1 East Pakistan - Present Land Use

2 East Pakistan - Drainage

3 East Pakistan - Water Projects Agriculture and Water Development

4 East Pakistan - Transportation System

5 East Pakistan - Land Suitability for Irri Aman

6 East Pakistan - Land Suitability for Irri Boro or Aus with Irrigation

7 East Pakistan - Land Suitability for Kharif Groundnuts

8 East Pakistan - Land Suitability for Rabi Groundnuts

9 East Pakistan - Land Suitability for Wheat with Irrigation

10 East Pakistan - Land Suitability for Rabi Cotton CHAPTER I

PERSPECTIVE

1.01 The Province of East Pakistan needs - and has requested - special assistance, both financial and technical from the members of the Consortium, the UNDP and the World Bank in order to increase its rate of economic development under singularly difficult circumstances. At the February 26, 1970 meeting of a Working,Party of the Consortium, the Chairman of the Consortium informed members that the Bank was preparing proposals for an Action Program for the agricultural and water development of East Pakistan, which would have the following main features:

First, an intensified effort to get projects going that would bring results in the short term.

Second, as floods are a malor problem, the action program would include flood protection works that were hydrologi- callv safe.

Third. snecific gans in basic data would be filled so that additional projects could be evaluated and executed as exprdiJtiJnii81v as nnpo4h1e

Fourth, a more systematic and comprehensive aproch woruiid be applied;to identify constraints and potentialities and to T.7-rlr nxtri 7tatmot- -rit-or4n fnr- tho cplc-rt,inn of nrnia'tS.

1.02 These proposals for an Action Program represent a commitment on the part: of the Government of Pakistan and the Government of East Palkistan tLLoexpand andA lnt.enS4fy the ProV4nce's agricullture ard water develop:nent. The proposals are a continuation of the World Bank's 1966 commitment to assisct t-he Praovincial C-overnment in -lainnitn andS devlowanincy Ifs w5at-P1¢ rp- sources. More immediately, the proposals are aimed at eliciting support from mem.bers of the Consortium for indiv4dual, Joint or psrrallel fimanc- ing of specific investments, studies, and technical assistance; for in- vestiL.ga4lng proJects w4lthI a view towardA fiancn-- where. ji-ptnl proJ*ct have been identified in the presentation but where the present state of project preparation dld not -4it -e.m,or - thro- anlyis-1a adoronri ji.LJ C. i ja ~* LA-A LALl jFC &I.U.. a~" ,0 C ULI AI A o.a y&Oan &LL .JllL 5 buting toward the Comprehensive Study discussed in paragraph 1.14 and Chapter IIT T T

1.03. ThLe reasons whiy an AccLIon PLrograr,., ba-cked L- soun plann:Lng effort, is necessary are compelling: (a) East Pakistan is a deltaic flood plain of 33 million acres, (approxi.mately t-he size otf Florida) with an estirna ted population of 71 million people. Located at the confluence of the Ganges and the Brah,naputra, lt has perhaps the most complex water control problems in the world. Flooding and drainage are severe problems affecting over half of the Province during the monsoon season (May-September). Much of the Province suffers from droughit during the dry season October-April).

(b) Soils are fertile and two or three crops can be grown annually with adequate water control and irrigation. Ilowever, cropping intensity is less than 150 percent and agricultural yields are extremely low.

(c) During the past decade, agricultural production has increased by slightly more than 2 percent per annum, while population has increased at an annual rate of about 3 percent. At present growth rates, projections put the population at 120 million by 1985 and at over 200 million just thirty years from now.

(d) The importation of foodgrains has risen from 888,000 tons in 1965-66 to planned imports of 1.7 million tons in 1969-70. Although most imports have been on concessional terms, large future imports could place a severe burden on foreign exchange resources. At present growth rates, it is estimated that about 5 million tons of foodgrains would have to be imported in 1974-75 just to maintain the increasing population at present nutritional levels. According to a 1962-64 nutritional survey, nearly half of the rural families consumed less than the minimum calorie requirements and there is a serious deficiency in protein. The nutritional problem has probably grown worse since then.

(e) Approximately 22.5 million acres of the total area of the Province are cultivated and there are only very limited possibilities for expanding the cultivated area. Ninety percent of the population is rural, with 80 percent engaged in agriculture, which is largely characterized by subsistence farming. Population density is among the highest in the world - about 2,100 per square mile of cultivated land or 1,300 per square mile of the total area.

(f) Agriculture practices are complicated not only by hydrologic conditions, but also by population pressures. Farms are extremely small and highly fragmented. Average farm size was 3.5 acres according to the 1960 agricultural census but recent feasibility studies for various projects suggest that the average farm size has since diminished to about 2.4 acres. - 3 -

(g) Per capita annual income in East Pakistan. presently estimated at about $60, is among the lowest in the world. Disparities in income between East and West Pakistan are increasine and this has become a major problem affecting Pakistan's political and economic future.

1.04 Fortunately; conditions within East Pakistan are rinp fnr change= Farmers are responding to improved agricultural inputs. Improved seed varieties have been develoned The inRtiti,tional pattern for rhe rapid introduction of irrigation is proving itself. The Government of East Pakistan has evolved an agrlru1lttirnl cstrategy which gives prior4ty to fast pay-off agricultural inputs, while concurrently initiating projects with longer geematinn npriMdz and tndertak4ng the studies necessary for longer range development.

1.05 The investments, studies and policies described in this Report have hben colleatively dacignated as an Action Program. By this I48 pria4 ily meant that a preliminary review of the agriculture sector has identified a sfrpo J4 ectas and - r o r,r amas It.4ich hLav .e Inh4.g p Jhr iorly andL wAhiLtch& OshouldA be adopted for implementation as fast as resources permit. They have been >_rn.,a 6-rouped- to-ete,a.t.-nz as alF^eleent on4 aI in aa1F ~4-st.ratg a l to_an. secur e 4ncrase agric=I8Xu|l-ral,._ 4_ _..1 @..-1 OO% S&t ~ O0L CJ LJ OtU LtL O U .LL AtUJ. U CA. growth by a combination of short-run quick-impact agricultural inputs pro- g-m .- A iriatln .roAects, -1 - - ..4y1A4..... u protection, drainage, irrigation and navigation projects) water control proJectts, tChe technical assistance need.edU to speedu up thle pace o£Lproject implementation and studies to prepare for the further work which will have to be 'one to dUeal wtL th t c UIUVAp yULoULgJ.cal proulemIs wLth wLicIL Pakistan is faced and to prepare the further projects which will have to Ueconstructed 2a.order to ,-iaintalii the rate of growth of the agricultural sector.

1.06 The whole approach to short and medium-term investments in agriculture is in the process of transition, due to recent developments which indicate that water control in combination with other inputs when applied to new seed varieties can UraImat'LaLLy increase yields irom tne scarcest resource - namely cultivable land. A new rice variety (IR-20), which may ismprove yields buy at least 25_40 percent, suitable for the inain growing season (aman) has been developed on an experimental scale. It has been tested, however, on only a limited basis in the aman season. Experience has shown that it takes at least three years to prove a variety in East Pakistan. But ir rurther proving of IR-20 yieids successtul results, then the UNDP land capability survey indicates that it could grow on approximately 6 million acres that are not subject to flooding in excess of one foot of water. The potential results of such a development are important, and the Government of East Pakistan is mounting a full-sca]e IR-20 program. However, the IR-20 program must be clearly labeled as an approach to which probabilities of success or failure cannot yet be attached because it is still uncertain whether the results achieved on a small scale can be achieved on the much larger scale now planned. 'In any event, investments in low lift-pumps, tubewells, large-scale water - 4 - projects, seed research, etc., must continue in order to meet both the short

i1A-_- - - 1 - f-|oA{thAT.4 4 -- - #- .-- -- _. p_- andc - ong ~~~~~~~~~~_r foodvv- demn ds of 'SW -'*'J6 j-' JVfl -.' -l1 -V SZfU LUL L L t t U LL 1x tional levels.

1.07 The projects included in the proposals in this Report appear to be soundU anUr.dLo If. " priority, and their incluson in the Ac-ionnProgrami, mni- cates the scope for considerable, but phased, absorption of additional

L in.,ili an'd teLcnical assistance In `ast Pa'-istan. i£1ny of the projects are further instalments of ongoing programs which have benefited from ConsortuLum fiLnancing (e.g. L ertLizer, low-lift pumps, arid coastal embankments). Some of the proposed projects have already been financed since preparatiLon ofL this R Leportwas begun (e.g. CUandpur, ADU Tubewells, and the Karnafuli/Muhuri Engineering Credit). The Bank's preliminary review of the multipurpose and irrigation projects snows them to be technically sound and likely to yield good rates of return. Though the other agriculture- oriented projects have not been examined to the same degree, prima facie they would be very high yielding projects and have an important place in support of the strategy.

1.08 Much must be learned about East Pakistan in order to lay the basis for sound, long-range planning. Some of the data deficiencies will be corrected by a group of investigations about to be undertaken, for example, the proposed UNESCO vocational education study, the intermodal transportation study by the Economist intelligence unit, and tne unite(d States Geologic Survey ground-water investigations. Other deficiencies should be remedied by specific intensive surveys.

1.09 The implementation of the Action Program would involve a substantial intensification of the pace of development and call for energetic action on a number of difficult financial, organizational and policy questions, ranging from extension work to taxation and user charges.

1.10 A comprehensive program of regional and Province-wide studies, complemented by a substantially increased effort in the supporting programs of basic data collection and resources evaluation, is urgently required to expedite the identification, formulation, and execution of additional, sound projects. While a pragmatic selection of projects and sectoral programs that can be undertaken promptly is recommended, it is nevertheless apparent that an accelerated effort is now required to ensure that revisions of the current proposals are both soundly based and reflect technical and economic interlinkages more realistically than has been possible to date.

1.11 Agricultural production must increase almost fivefold between now and the year 2,000 simply to meet the estimated internal demand. To achieve this will require substantial improvement of agriculture throughout the 22.5 million acres of arable land. Increases in productivity will require the substantial reduction of widespread annual flood damage, provision of extensive irrigation, improved agricultural inputs, as well as improvements - 5 -

in both the physical and social infrastructure. This will necessitate early forward planning of many types of projects whose relative priority wouLld be more adequately determined if the studies recommended are accelerated to the maximum extent practicable.

1.12 In order to make clear the implications of the first year's investments for which Consortium assistance is specifically sought, and to gauge the support for an expanded water and agriculture program in succeed- ing years, the investments forecast for the second and third year have also been given in Table 3.1. The three-year time frame for the Action Program is based on a JudRement as to the most suitable framework to develop new knowledge while a start is made on the basis of present knowledge of potential water and aRricultural investments. The proiect phasing allowed for in the three-year projection is highly sensitive to serious financial and manpower constraints and would be reviewed annually.

1.13 The Bank has had to formulate the proposed Action Program without benefit of a finalized Fourth Five-Year Plan (1970-75), the sectoral composition of which is still not known, and without a finalized 1970/71 Aiinnial Development Program.: The Government of Pakistan has programmed investments in agriculture/water exceeding those nronosed in the Artinn Prnoram, m!!ainlv in the fields of urban flood protection and river training. The Bank has exnressed reservationR conrerning the ahqnrriuvlue and rpesnurce mobIization capacity but recognizes that the execution of this larger program r.ust be considprPd within the ontxpyt of the policies governing national priorities. However, the entire Action Program is included in the East Pakistan Govern- ment's laraer nrnaram and ia connsidred by the Gleovnments teo be the hard core of that larger program.

1.14 The Action Program amounts to a rate of expenditure accumulating to some Rs. 11 billion over the Fourth Plan period. This requirement includes Rs. 1 billion for the fertilizer subsidy. The cost of the program may be reduced if action is taken to red:..e thls subsidy anA to accelerate -le reduction of the subsidies on other inputs, i.e. pesticides, low-lift puimps and tubewetplls, And byu im.poing wster charges as laroe scale we p ts are completed. However, additional financing will be required - mainly for extension and other ric-4 -ltural services and infrastrucrure - to gain optimal returns from the program. The estimated program of Rs. 11 billion

would constlutewr%oilrl 20nnaf-4f-l1, 'Oercent over and aboveVC th-1ei fl ~J.original ?~4-u* 1 FourthI'JU LI I'Pl.an IUS atIal.loca- a tion of Rs. 8.85 billion for water, agriculture and rural works. The Public Sector expenditures--X ~ ~ ~ foriL all-0-.VL3 of Pakistanl.AcL* wereCC setCL atL Rs.LO 497 blil'i-on.U..L .L L.LIJU OuUL ts idU e the Plan there is an allocation of Rs. 1.5 billion for a flood protection pro-ram. i n East Pakistan.

1.15 The present tax=GNP ratio in Pakistan is very low (8., pe9 and only the first steps of the necessary action have been taken to reduce the domesti res ource_^i.._ ga An.*4 ._ .._ -- w _ _ _11_-1 _ ____ Cp VAiAULA.IL 5 L.&M ILCAL L.LV=-yCaL PVZLJ.UU. vle: .LUi 11viuVInebL.C resources is the most critical constraint on development in Pakistan and will - 6 -

be a particularly important constraint in finiancing the Action. Program as Lthe foreiCgn excilhange component of1-It Prog ram is low: of ISh-order ofA 0 percent. Unless the domestic resource position improves radically, ;he

tmAction LJ.L) Program,If L wouldUUU _LLI have10LU toUL beLI.3Z rephased.j a -13 uowever,*1.W~V ~ theL.U Centralk, L LL~. andcLU Provin=AL cial Governments have indicated their readiness to consider expeditiously tLh e TiUCeasures necessary to Lkinance the proposed4 L roJgram.lu.BuL it is contemUl plated that the Action Program will be reviewed and revised annually in .he

.l'ght £±gLLLUIof progrlesspLULC~i mnadueieue inL roZUL)_J_4LZ£LK 'igadtoa 0UU±.L.LUALLaL UUALIR-L~.olsiLLL LCt1UULL;Ubeore 0.iliHl_n1i dealing with manpower constraints. Priority in the initial review should be given to relating the program to the niatLional priorLties of Pakistan anL East Pakistan for the Fourth Five-Year Plan period.

116 Significant improvements in performance will be required to carry out this ambitious program. increasing the pace of project preparation will require extensive use of both foreign and local consultant's. Closer attert- tion to the quality or consultant services and closer supervision will b)e necessary than ha-l been the case 'n th- past. On- the-job training for Pakcistan government staff must be included in consultants' terms of reference in order to keep the need for consultants to an acceptable level. Even with this approach, the nuumber of consultants requLred in tLhe first year wOU ld eD considerable. For the EPWAPDA projects alone the present number of consultant personnel would have to he trcbled to about l80 in the first ye!ar, Addi- tional consultants would also be required in connection with other technical assistance programs, tne agricuitur-ai inputs proj_cts and tne miscelianeous studies. In all this would amount to a considerable influx of outside assistance which could pose serIous absorption problems for the government. The Government of East Pakistan and the agencies concerned maintain that the initial level of consultants could be absorbed. In particular, the Provincial Government has undertaken to rev'ew and streamline administrative procedures, such as those relating to the approval of consultants' contracts and approval of individuals to be resident in East Pakistan. Trained manpower to staff the agencies would also be a serious constraint which would necessitate energetic and effective action to assure that the implementation capacity of the agencies concerned sustained the Action Program.

1.17 It is recommended that immediate consideration be given by members of the Pakistan Consortium and the UNDP to financing the first year's investments and technical assistance, specific surveys and investigations and the Comprehensive Study. As regards the specific surveys and investigations, those enumerated have received careful consideration and are deemed necessary in order to lay the basis for longer range and more effective planning of East Pakistan's economic development. The third component of the Action Program, in addition to the individual investments, surveys and investigations, has been styled a Comprehensive Study. This would constitute a synthesis of all the inter-related surveys and investigations; it would analyze the development program for the agricultural sector. It would also concern itself with issues in the non-agricultural sectors of the economy such as transportation and education, which must be considered within an overall development program. 1.18 In the f,rst year o' the Action Program, the co,l,iui'tments requilred .1. L U LU IIaJ. LL L UL L LLm jLL±L LU tUI A.II±LL~L~L4±~U from Pakistan and from external sources amount to $549 million. Of this sium thie foreign exchange comuponent amounts to v225 I1"LUion. To help f.1IianLLC this Program external assistance in several forms would be needed: grants to finance technical assistance and sLudies; commodity and other program aid to help finance imports of fertilizers, pesticides and imports of agricultural equipment; and project aid on the concessional terms made necessary by Pakistan's limited debt servicing capacity. Pakistan will need assistance in financing tne iocai expenditures in tne Program. Over tne next few years, until the action planned achieves results, Pakistan will also need aid in financing the substantial food imports for East Pakistan that will be needed even if West Pakistan surpluses become available. On the measure of the support that can be shown for the Action Program depends the pace at which the rate of agricultural growth can be raised.

1.19 Credits arranged recently (Dacca Southwest Engineering Credit $1.4 million, Chandpur Irrigation Il $22 million, Karnafuli/Muhuri Engineering Credit $3.9 million, and ADC Tubewells $44.6 million) will make a contribution to financing during the period of the Action Program. For the first year of the Program,'the following projects are likely to be considered for IDA credits, Dacca Southwest Multi-purpose Project, Tea Machinery and Irrigation Project and a Grain Storage Project.

1.20 The studies and investigations included in the Program. are particularly important in,relation to the preparation of further measures to ensure continuing growth in agricultural development in East Pakistan. The Bank would be prepared to assist the Government in coordinating this work through participation in the work of synthesizing and analyzing the results obtained from specific studies and by assisting in the preparation of the Comprehensive Study described in Chapter VIII.

1.21 There is an aspect of the Comprehensive and Flood Studies to which attention should be drawn. As described in this report, the water control studies relate to the East Pakistan Delta substantially in isolation of the river basins upstream. However, the rivers of East Pakistar extend far into neighboring countries, where they are being developed for irrigation purposes. The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna drain a catchment area of about 600,000 square miles of which only about 7.5 percent lies in East Pakistan. I'he Ganges Basin is now being developed in India. Increasing irrigation diversions are likely to be made from some of its tributaries and some water will be diverted from the main stem of the Ganges by the Farakka Barrage. Schiemes to employ the waters of the Brahmaputra and its tributaries in India are also under consideration where flooding is also a serious problem. Schemes for directing low flows to expand irrigation facilities in Assam are also likely to be developed in the next 25 years. Although some of'these developments could seriously affect flows downstream, they are at present being planned without consultation between India and Pakistan. In the longer term sen- sible planning will require taking this fact into account. -8-

1.22 The Action Program is designed to translate the development strategy into concrete investments; into studies and project preparation aimed at early, additional investments; and basic research, investigations, and analysis necessary to develop the framework for more effective comprehensive, long-range planning. One major agricultural target, rice production, can be inferred from the Action Program. However, growth in production will emerge not only from the investments specified in Table 3.1 but also the follow-up investments which are continuations of a particular investment (for example, continuation of the ADC tubewell program and successive polder proiects like Comilla/Noakhali). A 40 percent increase in rice production (from 11.5 million tons to 16.5 million tons) by 1975, 112 percent increase (24-25 million tons) by 1980, and 160 percent (28 million tons) by 1985 are the major targets of such a program. These projections must be juxtaposed against the rurrent and nroiected demands. The 1970 demand at a subsistence level of 1,800 calories per day (compared to a West European standard of 2,700 calo'r's per day) is 14 million tons of foodgrain. The extremely high internal price of foodgrain and the potential danger of a further fall in real wages underscore the need for either additional; future imports or substantial, incremental foodgrain production. The 1985 demand is forecast at 28 million tons at only slightly hizher nutritional standards of 2,150 calories per day indicating that even if the ambitious projections are met the Province will only iust he meeting its foodgrain demands and still face the prospect of again doubling its foodgrain output by the year 2000.

1.23 The Action Program comprises an urgently needed series of projects and programs together amounting to a nositive strategy of development which calls for effort by Pakistan on a scale not previously achieved and for external assistance on a scale not so far made available. Despite the constraints to which attention has been drawn, the targets set by the Pro- gram are achievable if realistic measures are taken by Pakistan and adequate external assistance is provided on suitable terms. To achieve the objectives w411 be t-o reduce by a small dearee the hNardships of the growinv nonulation of East Pakistan: to fall short will be to compound the seemingly intractable problems which will have to be faced, These are the dimensions of the chal- lenge, and the opportunities to assist Pakistan, that the Action Program provides. - 9 -

CHAPTER II

PROVINCE-WIDE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

2.01 East Pakistan is an area of some 55,000 square miles, all of which is subject to winter droughts, periodic droughts in the spring and fall, and in the summer heavy flooding and excessive severe drainage problems. Despite such a small land mass, the Province displays some remarkable geographic, climatic and hydrological differences. In evolving a development strategy, the geography of the Province is of great importance.

2.02 The Province divides into four distinct regions based primarily on hydrological differences, though there are also important differences in population densities, soils, and land availability. The Brahmaputra- Jamuna, Ganges-Padma, and Meghna Rivers form the boundaries of the four regions: the Southwest, the Northeast, the Southeast and the Northwest (see Map 1). Droughts in the Northwest, floods in the Northeast, and floods coupled with tidal inundation in the Southwest and Southeast are among the most serious problems. The agricultural pattern of each region is affected to a large extent by the differing topography, climate, and river regimes. The Nort'heast has the worst flooding problems in the Province due to low relief, heavy rainfall (ranging from 200 inches in northeastern Sylhet district to 70 inches in southwestern Dacca district), and inability to drain the heavy overflows of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna rivers.

2.03 The Southeast suffers from tidal inundation and catastrophic cyclones in the monsoon season. The Meghna and Gumti rivers flood large parts of Noakhali and Comilla districts, while the Karnafuli; althouc'h partly under control, and the Sangu rivers flood portions of the Chittagong and Chittagong Hill Tracts districts. The Southwestj like the Southeast, suffers from tidal flooding. Excess salinity in the winter prevents a double crop, while heavy summer floods result in poor rice yields. The Kushtia and Jessore districts are, however, relatively free of floods in the summer.

2.04 Regional differences are thus crucial determinants of anv nrnvinre- wide strategy. There are frequently different project solutions for each region, such as tubewells rather than surface water nrniects, or variations in the latter. Examples of different projects due to different hydrological conditions in the four regions are: ADC and WAPDA tubewelis in the North- west, Coastal Embankments in the Southwest, Chandpuir in the Southeast, and Upper Kusiyara or Khowai in the Nnrtheast- - 10 -

2.05 The extreme scarcity of resources highlights the need for thorough Prnnnmir nnalyvis in dPtPrminingc develnnment nriorities and eplepting projects. Taking both regional and economic criteria into account, East Pakistan's pmprein deuvlnnment strntpciv ronnpntrntpe on:

(1) TInc#resng arrtiilvtirnl nrnduictinn in ths whnytft-rm with primary emphasis on modern agricultural inputs,

tubewell irrigation, fertilizer, credit and pesticides which bring quick yields and high rates of return with a view to achieving, jointly with the water development program, self sufficiency in food production in the short- est possible time.

(2) Planning and executing an effective flood contrdl program

(3JJ .L _.nm.e4aLely with selected .uUl.pup-eIl APS%roc"ng (irrl- gation, drainage, flood prevention and navigatio-i) surface=watL-er -- j4ects so designed and phased ans to. mai.t4ain the thrust of increased agricultural production because eube-welis th-e marginalLLL~LLZ~)~L~J proluctivityL UUL LL VJ.LL.WLLiI of low-lift pum,psJJL.LLULUW an' J will level off. These projects not only contribute to .Lr,-lgation bLuL a'lUso providue considerable flUoodU controIL and can be incorporated into a province-wide flood con- troL program (see Chapter VI).

(4) Empnasizing rural infrastructuret, inClUUding cLreUdL, marketing, and the planning and construction of local works (see Chapter VII); this is a Ltcessa-ry coUcomiiiiLLt- ant of increased investments in water control, in particular.

(5) Eliminating transport constraints and, by emphasizing a regional approach, ensure that inter- and intra-regional trahsport facilities develop in a complementary manner in accord with agricultural development potential.

(6) Substantially improving the planning, implementation capacity and extension work of Government departments and agencies and emphasizing inter-agency coordination. To the extent that further administrative and flinancial delegation to the agencies responsible for execution of the program are necessary, the Central and the Provincial Governments should take appropriate measures (see Chapter IV).

(7) Undertaking industry reviews for all cash crops including jute, tea, sugarcane, tobacco and oil seeds from research production and marketing through manufacture and export. The reviews are designed to lead to higher yields through improved production methods, pricing, crop diversification and rationalization of agro-industries.

(8) Undertaking now the studies and investments necessary to build the framework for longer-range and more comprehen- Rive nlannina and lnv the baRis for orovince-wide ontimum agricultural and water development (see Chapter VIII).

2.06 The key elements of East Pakistan's agriculture and water development strategy are summarized here in the beginning of the Repnrt in order to show the interrelationship of the various elements of the development strateg-, toether with the -roposed Action Program and to enphasi7e the '- .7 5 _1- _-- importance of phasing, investments.

Rice Varieties

2.07 The highest priority is given to immediately increasing rice yi.elds. RecenFtl -eeoe in-varietie, parti.ular IR-20, will be the most important factor. It is estimated that the accelerated IR-20 rice programL can bue extended to identified non-flooded areas covering z.pproAx,irfate= ly six million acres. The IR-20 seeds, together with the necessary iectilizer ariud supplerIental iLrr'gat'on 'LsproJected to yield 4.J r.LlAon tons of additional rice by 1974, assuming adequate credit or other financing is provlded for seeds, fertilizer, plant protection and extension servlces. However, this strategy must be buttressed by sound water investments if sustained province-wide growth and diversifie agricultural production are to be achieved in the medium to long term.

Inputs

2.08 The ongoing program of agricultural inputs (excluding water which is treated separately below) must be expanded, improved institutionally, and adapted to include the strategy which relies heavily on the payoff from tne experimentally developed IR-20 ror Lne aman seaSou and LLth pruv liLue-WdUe cooperative program. Credit, extension work, fertilizer and pesticide are all fundamental to the program and each of these programs must be strengthened.

Low-lift Pumps

2.09 The ongoing low-lift pump irrigation program must be continued to supply irrigation water for boro rice cultivation and, in some areas, supplementary irrigation for aus and aman crops. Within our present state of knowledge the upper limit for low-iift pumps, based on surface water avaii- ability without major pumps and civil works, is about 40,000 units, serving about 1.5 to 2 million acres. Civil works by WAPDA, which could initially be limited to pumping stations or regulators to increase water availability for low-lift pumping, can substantially expand the potential for low-lift pump irrigation (for example in the one million acres of the Barisal region). - 12 -

Tubewells

2.10 Production of rabi season crops, including boro rice could and Rhonild hp increased ranidlv through groundwater deveoplnent. Production of the aus and aman crops should also be increased through use of groundwater, to provide prnotetinn from drniights nf Rhort duration, and throuigh increased irrigation, especially in the NorthweRt region of the Province where avail- ablp information indirates highly favnrablp anulifpr cnndit-fn-. Parallel programs of tubewell development should proceed at once, one under ADC on a non-intensixbhsqiq (spacing of wells Ahnoutt 1-1/4 mile mrinImum) and by EPWAPDA on the intensive basis in selected zones where known aquifer conditions are favorahlec. On the basis of current Lknntowle , the InstallatIon of at least 15,000 tubewells can be considered hydrologically safe. (The .",,,navsi-'a ns.. th V4Pi,_Vasv Plnn hAa a tAvOOt of Mv AAAnnA 1 s. e,~~~~~. v-- L - *- E1 -- -*- -- - 1974/75.) The;UNDP land capability survey has provided the basic informa- to-n t- assist -In salecting areas for n.w seeds and -n sii-ng well.1(parti-s cularly those of ADC) to avoid areas with drainage and flooding problems.

Increasing Returns from Existing Projects

2.11 As an example of an existing project where incremental investment would yield quick, high r-eturns, the Coastal Em.bank-meents project (eventually covering 3.0 million acres) is the most important one. Despite benefits 0obtainedI from, clood protection against tides an' saline water In.trus'ont, .U~ Ad~.L&U LI us .L.A5U L JL5. .LsL&OaL.. 5 L5.LC eIU ~L.LL5W LLL UU, much larger benefits could now be obtained-through interior water management, and the provislon of agricultural inputs. Because of its size, remoteness, and various technical and sociological complexities, this area will require specia'l attention.

Irrigation DemtonstratLon

2.12 To help reduce the gestatLon period of multi-purpose surface water projects, irrigation demonstrations would be started in future projects prlor to the start of constructLon of major civil works. To some extent this is being done now. Use would be made of low-lift pump irrigation and/or tubewells which would help identify participants and facilitate the formation of water user groups. The acute importance of such an approach is emerging from the current problem of initiating water management and on farm development in the Coastal Embankment project, with some 1,000,000 acres empoldered now (out of three million acres upon completion) -- a major project by any standards.

Surface Water Irrigation and Flood Protection

2.13 Multipurpose (irrigation, drainage, flood prevention and navigation) surface-water projects have been studied intensively in recent years and a strategy is now evolving that is suitable to the difficult hydrologic conditions and to the small, fragmented landholdings that prevail in most of the Province. This strategy incorporates the following interlinking elements into the planning and design of multi-purpose projects: (a) Irrigation demonstrations as the first stage of development based on low-lift pumps or tubewells;

(b) Pumping stations as an intermediate transition stage between low-lift pump irrigation and completed multipurpose projects;

(c) Water distribution utilizing existing natural drainage channels, rather than a conventional gravity irrigation system which requires excessive land acquisition which involves serious water wasteage;

(d) Phasing of construction for flood protection in multipurpose projects in accordance with (a) and (b) above in order to obtain quicker benefits and a higher rate of return, although some projects (e.g., Karnaphuli, Muhuri, Khowai, Upper Kusiyara, and Belkuchi) would have flood prevention first;

(e) Labor-intensive methods of construction; and

(f) Provision of agricultural inputs and improved extension work as an integral part of the project.

Phasing of Projects

2.14 The multipurpose projects involve large investments and it is therefore necessary that they be carefully phased. It is practicable to do this since they involve divisible units, i.e., relatively small scale civil works such as primary pumping stations. Appropriate phasing would recluce the long gestation periods previously associated with multipurpose projects down to the point where they would be only slightly longer than the gestation period of tubewell projects.

Adaptable Water Distribution System

2.15 Adoption of a new method of irrigation distribution, i.e., use of natural drainage channels as distributaries plus low-lift pumps, has eimerged as suitable to the conditions of small landholdings prevailing in East: Pakistan. A major use of this approach would be made in the proposed new projects. Project preparation is almost completed for eight similar projects with an aggregate area of 1.5 million acres. These projects arE teclnically sound and although the results of final feasibility studies are not yet available, are expected to have fairly high economic rates of return. Based on an examination of topographic, soils, and hydrologic factors and from knowledge of existing cropping patterns, an additional four surface water proiects covering 2.5 million acres are technically and economically sound and can proceed to feasibility study preparation to be followed by final engineering and construction. - 14 -

Rural Infrastructure

2.16 Technical, financial and political support being given to three ma1or rural progra,ms - Integ-ratd Rural Development Pro-ram (cooperat4vmes) Thana Irrigation Program, and the Rural Works Program - would be continued dLIUhILL £ IIC~C jJ. Li L alma a.. t ,hr..tr-.aa- - - C.- - tLtJ ~JUJ-., f-L4LaS ni. U- 'JIl andu increased.~dbCU. Thlese program..s6 are necesr------atrbeeit ro, the agricultural inputs program and proposed water investments. In the case of thlte latter, a melding of WiAYDA prolLects with rural works (local drainage and farm to markets roads) would significantly advance development planning and imr-p'lem.entat'ion 'ln East Pakistan.

Floou ControL

in view of LLte uomp'LeL IlyUrUoLUgLcaL cUonditonu s Lna voLIVUeVtU, cUIIoLUerd- tion of constructing major flood protection works such as large-scale barrages and doub;le embankments should proceed with care. Plannin,g would be assisted by special studies necessary to determine technical feasibility, functional design, and order of magnituue CUoLs. A hLgh-level Flood Control Board has been established in East Pakistan and the Action Program includes special studies and a group of 'eauLng experts w,.o ntLer aa wl a-_ on flood control. On the basis of current knowledge, it is possible to proceed with flood protection for an area oi ig,liL ,Iikh±iULI acres, by the means of the multi-purpose projects referred to in Paras. 2.13, 2.14, and 2.15.

Available Resources and Rate of Development

2.18 The rate of implementation of water projects, whether tubewells or multi-purpose surface water projects, will depend on the availability or financing, both foreign exchange and, in particular, local currency; on the supply of trained manpower; on the speed with which effective organizations can both manage the projects and provide agricultural inputs; and, in particular, on policy formulation and implementation by the Central and Pro- vincial Governments. During the next few years, tubewell irrigation should be able to advance at the rate of over 100,000 acres per year. The constraints mentioned, insofar as they affect the multi-purpose projects, indicate a rate of development of about 100,000 acres of irrigated area per year about 6 years from now. As has been indicated, either rate could be increased depending on the speed with which constraints are overcome and on comparative economic rates of returns as the program accelerates. Total irrigated acreage and gross incremental yields resulting from water investments presently included in the Action Program are estimated in Chapter III.

Review of Priority Projects/Programs

2.19 The series of projects and programs comprising the Action Program would be subject to periodic review on at least an annual basis. Before reaching a decision to start actual construction, available information on a particular project would be reviewed against the emerging development - 15 -

strategy and against factors such as the economic rate of return4 as compared ...4 Fh ao h e r r ject/prApnr m hglter ativeo me l p menF t ps oartun4 i t e fcr l cnal labor, availability of contractors and other pertinent factors. The Bank could assist the Oovern.,men- 4n recurrently reviewing thbe phasing of pro4ctS.

St-uAies=cu,,Actior. D-----ml U LU5IAAC L If. ~~ULL IJ* LALA. 0

2.20d~LJ Additions to th'Le "pipeline 01 pLUJ ts"I WUU.oU L -LVUeLVLfuLrLtL investigations, refinement of project/program selection criteria, con- s'Uerat'or of' Lechnical problems, as yet unresolved, which concern lJ.ong- range measures for flood protection and the utilization of water for various competing purposes and in various parts of the Province. Tc. solve these problems certain surveys and studies need to be undertaken as rapidly as tney can be organized and staffed. The various water projects that can safely go ahead as well as the expansion and improvement in providing agricultural inputs and concomitant organizational improvements will provide a time cushion enabling studies to proceed in the next two to three years which would result in further improved projects and a more precisely formulated overall strategy. It should be noted, however, that technical answers to the more complicated water issues will require more than three years to resolve.

2.21 East Pakistan's development strategy and the Action Program are designed to maximize the advantages of the extension to East Pakistan ot the green revolution, the hopes for which are based on very promising early results from new seed varieties. The green revolution in West Pakistan has illustrated that rapid agricultural progress can be achieved in the short-run -- and in Pakistan -- with the correct blend of policies, resources, and modern agricultural techniques. The West Pakistan success suggests that farmers are responsive to economic stimuli and action by the Government to create a favorable economic climate for the farmers, and that major efforts to supply modern agricultural inputs at the right place and time are essential.

2.22 Much of the West Pakistan experience can be applied to East Pakistan, but the two provinces differ in so many respects -- climate, hydrology, size of land holdings, density of population, experience with irrigation, etc. -- that an agricultural program employing modern inputs must be tailor-made for East Pakistan. Here it should be noted that the Thana Irrigation Program and the province-wide Cooperatives Program (discussed in Chapter VII) allow for the fact that holdings in East Pakistan are smaller than those in West Pakistan. Recent good performance in some areas shows that the East Pakistan farmer responds positively to incentives in a manner similar to the West Pakistan farmer. This indicates that the short-run instrument of the creation and implementation of suitable policies should result in growth in agricultural production and productivity while the equally necessary longer-run institution building and training are being carried out to sustain growth. - 16 -

o recapitulate. he followlng are the componenits of a snort-run agricultural strategy:

(a) Improved seed;

(b) Fertilizers;

(d) Low-lift pump and tubewell irrigation; and

(e) Credit.

The longer run economic returns would stem from:

(a) Improved implementing capacity, including agricultural extension;

(b) Large-scale water projects, including flood control, with somewhat longer gestation periods;

(d) Improved animal husbandry and fishing practices;

(e) Extensive research; and

(f) Comprehensive planning.

2.24 The performance of the agricultural sector is evidence of the need for action on the lines proposed. Agricultural production has remained relatively stagnant. In irrigation, only low-lift pump irrigation has made an impact and that only over the last four years. Tubewell development and the agricultural orientation of large-scale water projects have only recently been accepted in earnest. Research on improved rice varieties is beginning to pay off, but this research itself is still in its early stages. The plant protection essential for the new varieties is inadequate. Research on other crops -- both cash and subsistence as well as those for diversification -- is badly needed. The fertilizer program has been reasonably effective, but forward planning particularly with regard to changes in the kinds of fertilizer needed, is necessary. The agricultural extension service badly needs strengthening. In short, almost every facet of the agricultural proeram requires attention. However, the recent success of the low-lift pump program has shown that cultivators can work together to use modern inputs (see Chapter VII on rural infrastructure). It is the cooperation of small farmers which must be helped and organized which will make possible the introduction of modern agriculture. - 17 -

CHAPTER III

ACTION PROGRAM

3.01 To implement the development strategy outlined in Chapter II, an initial Action Program is proposed to maximize the realization of growth possibilities in the short run, while also laying the basis for future growth and further investment in later years. To do this it is proposed to continue, generally, the development strategy the Government has recently been following, but to quicken the pace substantially at which successful programs and sound projects are prepared and implemenated.

3.02 The Action Program translates these objectives into two main categories of activities described respectively as the Short-Run Program and a concurrent and interlinked Long-Run Program. These are described briefly in the following paragraphs.

3.03 The constituent parts of these Programs are described in sone detail in Chapters 5, 6, 7 and 8. The Action Program calls for the commitment of additional resources totalling US$ 1613 million of which US$ 642 million represents foreign exchange costs and US$ 970 million local exnenditures. Of the total. $383 million will be required to finance the cost of importing fertilizers and pesticides. Details of the estimate of resources to be committed and a tentative Forecast of Disbursements are set out in Tables 3.1 and 3.2. A summary of the costs of the three-year Program and of the first year renuirements' is given in Para. 3.07 below.

Short-Run Program

3.04 The Short Run Program consists of the purchase and distribution of fertilizera (total first vyar imst 61 million) and nlant nrotection materials (total first year cost $40 million); a series of agricultural innipts proirta for the manfftinture, stnrage, eilQtr4bhttieon and annplcation of fertilizer and plant protection materials to support the introduction of nw seed varIetles on. a large scale (total first year cost $A56 millinn); low-lift pump and tubewell projects (total first year cost $64.6 mill:Lon) to provide irrigat4o'. i4vn a large area, r.dthernA agvricutural -indutrfes projects (first year.;cost $28 million); and the continuation and expansion of existino~~5 rurl-e - - - -development-e -- - r --- P-05progrms - (f4_st yaye r cost $88.7 m4iIoen.

Thae Long-Run Provnram

3.05 T.he Long=Rur. Program cor,sits of five maLn.i ee..e ents. Fi rst, the preparation and construction of multi-purpose (irrigation, drainage an.d flood0 protect"o. projects whLiIch on the basis oil presentL k-now L-leg; 2-are OIU L4.LIJJ LU _ L L .. VL±LIJ~ LJ~.L Lk~IUL LL ~ t t jZ OLL~L known to be hydrologically safe and which are expected to yield satisfactory rates of return, a.d pro-visLions fLor fLurLLehie LUeve'lopm,ent oil ongoilUag projects to maximize the yield from earlier investment (total first year CosteLs?JAU IU4±L.L±UUj * I),ese projects would LtepLsLILt VeLy sUbstantalU installment of the works needed to provide flood protection for farming areas. Lecondl, agri culture projects, preparation workl in the irst year'). Third, technical assistance programs to improve development planning and proJect implementation capacity, adU to provide staflLf trainLng Lfor the agricultural services (total first year $26 million). Fourth, agricul- tu. re _kea _t c L pr__ gr_it_ to _v_a 'L rs-__ yea _ _ I 1 . _I .1 .I_ N r.~ c t. _ _ _ _ LULatJ [tUtLLIl )LU-lfLIIb I,LUL4J| L:L6 yCdL 9J± IUI±LLULLJ. r.LLII, a program of Studies, Surveys and Investigations to provide the basis for further planning ard investrmientL in future years (total i'rst year $13.9 million).

OD 1ective

3.06 If the Action Plan can be implemented as planned and continuing supporting action is taken, the following are among the objectives which it is believed could be reached.

(a) An increase in rice production by 40% by 1975 from 11.5 million tons to 16.5 million tons. (b) The additional area irrigated by low-lift pumps would be 300,000 acres by 1972 and would increase to about 1 million acres by 1977. (c) the area irrigated by tubewells would increase to nearly 1.5 million acres by 1980. (d) The construction of 12 new multi-purpose projects and further development of three existing nrolects would by 1980 bring flood protection, and improved drainage to over 9 million acres and irrigation to 3 million arres (e) Planning and preparation would be advanced for further development to expand the area irrigated and protected from floods. (f) The planning and implementation capacity of the government agyenfio wouled hara hoon r1auP1n A to npro-jde for rontAn14ngt growth in the activities in the sector, while research programs n er.abld-a continruing im.provement i -4-l-.trl i4elds At -o be achieved.

It is estimated that the rate of return from the low-lift pumps, tubewell woulA 25=50%-l; ar.du a.AUmulti=purposeL.UL.LjU j) L O projectsJJ .S~ beIJu ofIl the%. I orAerLLL of L. &a 'A., providedj LUV. U ale- quate supplies of fertilizer and plant protection materials were used so as to maxUimi±ze the benefit romiLmLpro-veL U water regulati-Lon.

Financing the Action Program

3.07 As mentioned in Para. 3.02, a detailed breakdown of tne costs of the constituent parts of the three-year Action Program is given in Table 3.1 and a tentative Forecast of Disbursements is provided in Table 3.2. As a background to the consideration of what financial assistance Pakistan will need and where various kinds of aid might be applied, the costs of the three-year Action Program and for the part of the program to be undertaken in the first year are summarized in the following table. - 19 -

ACION PRfYIRAM

Co-nituents First Year Three-Year Program Perspectave Project/Arogram Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total _US$ Million Us$ Million

A. Short-Run Program

I. Current Agricultural Inputs 2 68.o 101.0 15.0 232.0 383o. (a) F.e+4i4.er .- ha.ee 32.0 29.0 61.0 v *.0 99.0 240.0 (b) Plant Protection Purchases - 40.0 40.0 - 143.0 143.0

II. Agricultuml. Inputs Project zs.o 26.5 56.0 5. 76.5

III. Quick Yielding Projects 31.2 61.4 92.6 106.2 1h7.h 253.6

(a) Low-lift Pumps 7.0 7.0 14.0 27.0 12.0 39.0 )bTu'nb.lls 1 13.0 37.6 50.6 68.o 138.6 186.6 ?c) Other Projects 11.2 16.8 28.0 U1.2 16.8 28.0

IV. Rural Development Program 88.04 0.3 o8.7 zy3.z 1.1 294.3

(a) Cooperative Credit 32.4 0.3 32.7 97.2 1.1 98.3 (b) Rural Works and TIP 56.0 - 56.0 196.0 - 196.0

Total Short-Rur-Proeram 181.1 IMA- M8 ,g )

B. Long-Run Program

I. Large Scale Water Projects 101.5 3815 140.0 279.4 115.2 394.6

(a) Preparation and bngineering 3.4 7.6 11.0 10.2 21.6 31.6 (b) Construction 98.1 30.9 129.0 269.2 93.6 362.8

II. Agricultural Projecta 2/ y Y/ 19.0 16.0 35.o

III. Technical Assistance Programs

(kranning, Project iWplementation, Training) 16.s 9.5 26.0 ,3u. 18.9 49.2

IV. Research Programs 21.0 10.0 31.0 21.0 10.0 31.0 V. Studies, Surveys, Iniestlgation 3.7 10.2 i3.9 10.7 25.2 35.9 (a) Special Purpose Studies 2.6 4.8 7.4 5.0 8.14 13.4 b) Flood Control Iirq;3stigations 2/ 2/ 2/ 4.4 10.6 15.0 %a) upruneht]sve St-1. .L ,.4 .56.2 7.5 Total Long-Run Program 68.2 210.9 360.4 185.3 545.7 TOTAL ACTION PROGRAM 323.8 225.14 549.2 970.3 6420 1,612.6

' Net budgetary implication wlvl be 50 peroent of previoos year's sales.

/ Will oounence following recnaaissanoe phase of coaprehensive study. - 20 -

3.08 In addition to tne projects for which commitments have yet to be made, projects for which some external financial assistance has already been arranged wiii also be carried out as part of the Action Program. These consist of the Chandpur Irrigation and Tubewells (ADC I) projects and the preparation and detailed engineering of the Dacca Southwest, Karnafuli and Muhuri Irrigation Projects. The total cost of these projects and engineering credits is $72.6 million: $31.1 million represents foriegn exchange costs and $41.5 million local expenditure. External assistance totalling $42.7 million has already been arranged for these projects, but the balance of the local currency costs will have to be provided from the local resources mobilized for the Action Program. A Forecast of Disbursements in respect of these projects is given in Table 3.3.

3.09 As the result of preparatory work that it is planned to do in the next three years, additional phases of multi-purpose projects, which would not be dependent upon the results of further hydrological studies, would be made ready for construction in the next two or three years following 1973. The construction costs of these projects are estimated at $224 million of which the foreign currency costs would amount to $59 million and local expenditures would account for $165 million. These projects may be regarded as an extension of the Action Program for the initial three year period. This list of projects requiring commitments beyond 1973 is given in Table 3.4.

3.10 In view of the urgency of the need to increase agricultural production and to make substantial progress with flood protection works, in preparing the Action Program it has been assumed, in particular, that substantial use will be made of consultants in the preparation,, engineering and supervision of construction of projects; that energetic measures through complementary programs will be taken by the Goverriment to expand and re- organize the implementation agencies and agricultural services and to improve the administration of the rural development program; and that a major effort to mobilize additional local and external resources will be successful. The Government has every intention of taking energetic action to deal with these problems so that the Action Program m2y proceed as fast as planned, but the Program will have to be reviewed periodically, probably annually, and adjustments made for the actual rate of implementation, to review priorities in the light of the resources available and to take account of the relative priorities of development projects in other sectors and the additional information which will accrue as the studies proposed are carried out.

3.11 Apart from other constraints, the pace of implementation of the Program will depend. quite largely, on the measure of the external suDnort provided to support the Action Program. It is necessary to determine as soon as possible what scale of support is likelv to be available in the form of program aid, project aid and technical assistance over the next three year neriod, and more sneciffcallv what assistance is likely to-n he made available for items for which financial assistance is sought for the first year of the Action Program period, so that any re-ordering of priorities that may be necessary may be undertaken quickly. - 21 -

3.12 As will be seen from the Su9rmmary iLi paragraph 3.07 above, commodity aid will be needed to meet the foreign exchange costs of fertilizer, pesticides and equipment, as well as to finance the substantiLal food imports which will be required until production, particularly of rice, is increased.

3.13 Meeting the foreign exchange costs of the high yielding low-lift pumps and tubewell projects would be a particularly suitable form of bilateral aid if made available on concessional terms.

3.14 The Association recently joined with Sweden and Canada in financing the Tubewells (ADC I) Project. The Bank would be willing to explore with members of the Consortium further possibilities for the :oint or parallel financing of projects.

3.15 The Action Program calls for considerable technical assistance much of it related to the development of basic data, training and research programs, not only to complement new investments but also to improve cne yield from past investments. The studies and investigations relatec6 to the longer run flood control projects and the Comprehensive Study are more closely interlinked with the pace at which assistance in financing water development and flood control projects is likely to be forthcoming, and is a matter of particular concern in East Pakistan.

3.16 Even if the Government is successful in mobilizing additional local resources of the magnitude referred to in Chapter 4, assistance in financing the local currency costs will be necessary if the Action IProgram is to proceed at the pace planned. The financing of the multi-purpose projects (drainage, flood protection and irrigation) poses particularly difficult problems, because they will be constructed by labor intensive methods by small local contractors, so that the foreign exchange cost component will be small and the scope for conventional bilateral participation also comparatively small. The Government will be making special allocations at the rate of Rs. 30 Crore per annum, initially for fite years, to a Flood Control Fund to meet part of the costs of multi-plrpose water development projects, and will be requesting Consortium members to make special allocations of aid to help finance flood protection works. To the extent that members are able to make such contributions, this would lessen the difficultv that will have to be faced in financing the sulb- stantial program of large scale water development projects that should be undertaken to increase irriRation facilities, improve drainage and increase flood protection in the large part of East Pakistan whicb. Es annually subiect to droughts and severe flooding. Assistance in fi:nancing the important Rural Development Program is also needed.

3.17 Substantial as the proposed Action Program would be, it would not inelude all the works which the Government of East Pakistan con3iders could and should, be undertaken during the Fourth Plan period. Further- more, there are high prioritV proiects in other sectors for which provision should be made. In carrying out the Action Program it would be important to review with the Government periodically the relative priorities of the development expenditures included in the Five Year Plan of which the Act:ion Program would form part. - 22 -

Bank Assistance

3.18 The Bank has given, and intends to continue to give, assistance for .ueasures affecting the Agriculture n.d Water sector in Eat Pnkistan,

Since 1964, four IDA credits have been4 made for the construction of …..*,lti-purposewater deve-lopmen t pro -te, n.d in th e past -ear o engineering credits to advance the construction period of 'three more have Deen madue, and a tuuewells project, J4ontlyf7w.lt r.ad S a. recently been approved. Two credits were made for agricultural education projects and one, Jointly wit SweAden, for a grain storage pro4ect. East Pakistan has also benefited from an IDA credit approved for use byythe Agricultural Development Bank . Further projects are scheduled for consideration over the next five years, notably the first phases of nine of the poider projects iLncluded in the Action P rogra.,, antd further education and transport projects. Through a shift in emphasis in the Bank/IDA operations from West Pakistan, which has benefited predomi'nant,ly from past assistance, to East Pakistan, IDA assistance is expected to be somewhat greater in the Fourth Plan period than it was iin the Third Plarn period, although owing to the restriction of IDA resources made available for use in Pakistan, IDA cred[Lts Jfor proJ'ec-Ls iLrc'LuUelu iLn the Aci.Jon P wilJl be limited. For the first year of the program, projects for credits amounting to about $35 million are being cons'dered. Ba nk loan assistance to Pakistan in the next few years is not likely to be substantial in view of Pakistants very limited capacity to sustain tile iLncreased debt LurrU w`Li cLLI would be caused by borrowing on conventional terms.

3.19 In addition to project finance, the Bank has assisted by sharing with U-NDP for the past year in meeting the cost of the services of the general consultants to EPWAPDA, and through its East Pakistan Water and Agriculture Group has provided assistance in preparing projects, reviewing policies and improving development techniques. In order to enable the Bank to increase its assistance of this kind, as will be necessary if the pace of development is accelerated, the Bank has already approved a substantial increase in the staff of the East Pakistan Water and Agricultural Group which now forms an important part of its Special Projects Department, and has appointed two staff members to be resident in Dacca to facilitate the coordination of the Bank's operations in East Pakistan. The Bank is also the Executing Agency for UNDP financed studies which were started late last year by the Harvard Center for Population Studies. Preliminary studies have the objective of defining the nature of the problems that arise in planning for water resources development in East Pakistan as indicated in Chapter VIII. The Bank would be willing to increase its assistance by coordinating the studies to be undertaken and supervising a Comprehensive Study if funds for this are made available. - 23 -

(tl A nfqtn TIT

".LJt.L _.L.U,1X_.L !V

ECONOMIC SETTING

4.01 From the general economic setting or Pakistan as it enter-s che Fourth Plan period (1970/71-1974/75) derive a number of compulsions and constraints that have an important bearing on the objectives underlying the Action Program as outlined in this report and on the circumstances in which progress towards its achievement wiil have to be attained. 1/

4.02 As for the compulsions, achievement of a significant acceleration of economic growth in East Pakistan ranks among the most important challenges faced by Pakistan's authorities today. In essence, the economic problem of East Pakistan lies in the fact that growth of regional product has so far barely exceeded, if it has not remained below, the increase in population. In other words, living standards there have certainly not improved significantly and may well have deteriorated. As shown in Tables 4.1 and 4.5, regional product in Pakistan's East wing is estimated to have grown by just over 4 percent annually over the past decade, while population has probably risen at rates close to 3 percent a year. This situation indicates that as yet it has not been possible to develop a strategy that has proved effective in the circumstances of East Pakistan in generating economic growth at an adequate pace.

4.03 Moreover, it is clear that the key to the pace of growth in East Pakistan - in the past as well as in the future - is held by the commodity- producing sectors. A quick glance at Table 4.5 shows that in the second half of the 1960's a marked acceleration of growth was indeed achieved in the manufacturing sector where value added at constant prices expanded by close to 10 percent a year, in contrast to about 6 percent in the first half of the decade. However, it is also clear that there are fairly narrow limits to the impact that manufacturing can have on the expansion of regional product -as a whole because of its small size. Contributing only 7-8 percent to regional product, it is dwarfed by agriculture's share of nearly 60 percent. Indeed, if total economic growth in East Pakistan failed to accelerate in the second half of the 1960's, it was because agricuLture - despite impressive achievements in dealing with some particular aspects of agricultural development, e.g. in the low-lift pump program, in expanding the use of fertilizer - continued to languish with an average annual rate of growth of 3 percent.

4.04 Moreover, the simple arithmetic of the relative shares of manu- facturiLng and agriculture in East Pakistan's economy will continue to dictate the need for a development strategy with heavy emphasis on agriculture. Clearly, there are opportunities for further rapid development of

1 For.a u.ore-----. c- p r e hn-siv analysis o Pak's-,'s peset e.oo.i situation see 'Current Economic Position and Prospects of Pakistan' seCA_ I% . _*3-. T.._ --)f I ^nl \ sJ-_|. UC3bL4D=U ' J UIIC: 4vJ _7L /V . - 24 - manufacturing. These should be exploited. However, there are also limits to the pace at which the manufacturing sector can grow. In the public sector, they are set by managerial and organizational problems that have yet to be overcome. In the private sector, they are influenced by concern in East Pakistan over domination from outside the region which presumably will dictate keeping the growth of the sector as a whole roughly in line with the pace at which entrepreneurial talent in East Pakistan can be attracted to industry. Thus, developments in the agricultural sector will continue to dominate the pace of total economic growth attainable in East Pakistan. It is, therefore, on this sector that any growth strategy must concentrate. Moreover, acceleration of total growth not only requires faster expansion of output in agriculture, but, as analyzed in the body of this report, there is indeed the promise of a marked acceleration from the slow growth of the 1960's. To translate this promise into reality over the next five years is the principal objective of the Action Program.

4.05 There is a second major compulsion as far as East Pakistan is concerned. As shown in Table 4.7, fixed capital formation in that reeion in the 1960's has fluctuated around 10-11 percent of regional product. It is difficult to see any economy achieving rapid expansion of output at such a low investment rate. This conclusion is even more compelling for an economy oneratine in such a difficult physical environment as does East Pakistan's. Thus, while in the short term there appear to be promising opnnrtunities for arcelerating economic erowth nrimarilv by using existing economic assets more productively, there is no question that the rate of growth that ran he sustained over time will become increasingly depnendent upon the pace at which investment in new assets takes place. Here again, economic considerations would, in the light of nresent knouljenIge ahnit the growth potential in the various sectors of East Pakistan's economy and the benefits to be derived frnm investment, argue for a verv large part of any additional resources becoming available for investment going into the a-ricultural sector. Moreover, social considerations would point in the same direction because with 80 percent of the population engaged in agriculture it is obviously this sector uvhich offers the broadest opportunities for raising the standard of living of the population of East -_1-4S ta

L.IU LI t.ULUo * IL O .L* I -. , O^L t- -C V>; V L- t 0t.L Jfl- 5flt4 XVL a- 6LUL16 Pakistan pertain to the resources available for mounting an intensified attackL on E(astL PaIk istar.'s economic proble.s. * T.,1LOLr o uo utJL thet IM.. -A Llan period Pakistan has had to labor under a very severe resource constraint, 'Lr bUothL forein K. exchange aidU 'Loca4l currency. 'iLL the foreign exchan.ge side, serious difficulties arose, despite highly creditable achievements in raising the countries export earnings, largely because of sizeable short- falls in external assistance and a significant diversion of exchange resources to military and food imports. On the domestic front, a severe stringency of resources for public development outlays developed, despite significant action througnout tne Pian period to raise additionai revenue, partly because of the low degree of elasticity of the revenue system with respect to growth of GDP, partly because of a sharp increase in the claim on resources for non-development purposes - first in defense outlays, subsequently for adjustments in the salaries of public employees. - 25 -

4.07 The Fourth Plan calls for total public development outlays of RB 49,000 million over the five years 1970/71 to 1974/75, of which Rs 29,400 million would be spent in East Pakistan and the remaining Rs 19,60() million in the West wing. Altogether, this would suggest public development outlays in the Fourth Plan period at a level roughly twice that actually achieved during the past five years. Considering the strained resource position in which Pakistan enters the Fourth Plan period, achievement of such an expansion would require an effort in mobilizing resources of a magnitude for whose attainment it is difficult now to see a realistic basis. Independent estimates suggest that it may be poss:Lble to plan in terms of a total public development program in the order oE Rs 43,000 million. However, even a program of this size would appear to be dependent on policy action to the extent of about Rs 14,000 million. Such policy action would be required on the part of both those providing assistance to Pakistan and the Government. As for the former, present estimates indicate that, were commitments to continue at present levels, the net transfer of resources from abroad to Pakistan would fall from about US$2,500 million in the Third Plan period to US$1,700 million in the next five years. It would appear necessary at least to maintain the net flow of resources to Pakistan at the level of the second half of the 1960's which would require assistance additional to that built in present policies in the order of at least US$800 million, or Rs 4,000 million. As for action by the Government, present estimates indicate that over the Fourth Plan period as a whole roughly Rs 10,000 million in additional revenue would have to be raised through new measures.

4.08 Raising these additional resources represents formidable tasks indeed. However; on their accomnlishment will largelv depend the pace at which new projects and programs can be taken up. For rough estimates sug- gect that onnoing nronects and programq - even if narrowly defined to include only those for which commitments have already been entered into - will requIre .at least PRS 11,000 million foTr rnmnlpotsn ditring ehe Fourth Plan period, consisting of Rs. 3,000 million for Indus/Tarbela and, assuming the proleet aid normallv covers about 50 nercent of total project cost, Rs, 7,500 million for drawing down the project aid pipeline. Thus, nearly half of the provision for new nroiects and programs In a total Drogram of Rs. 43,000 million would be contingent upon policy action.

4.09 Within a total program of such size, it would appear possible to mount a nT,hlir deuelnnment nrooram for East Pakistan in the order of Rs. 22- 25,000 million. Although less than the Fourth Plan calls for and certainly conQicdralyhv hbelow whnt the Rnast PakIeist-n nauthnritipes would hone to spend, such a program would nonetheless be twice as lacge as actual. outlays of RRa. 10,4)00 m4 1 14 mm in the Third Plan period and, if combined with an improvement in the share of private investment going into the East wing, would result in bringin8 the investment rate of East Pakistan to the level nf the West by 1974/75. 4.10 Several important conclusions follow from this exposition. i rst, because a very laree part of the increase in public development outlays be- ween the Third and Fourth Plan periods would go into East Pakistan - about 60-RO nerrcent - and- furthermore- because well over half of the resources already committed to on-going projects and programs relates to schemes lnoatpd in Went Paki4tan; the nace at which additional resources are mobilized will have a disproportionately large influence on the rate at which npihlir development ont-1va cnn he expanded in Enat Pakisrann

4.11 cornndly, the cQhpr qiS7 nf thp Art-ion Program unTtllnedl in thic report - total outlays involved are estimated at Rs. 11,000 million, or 45-50 percent of the total public development program whIch 4n the circu- stances it might be possible for East Pakistan to plan for - obviously makes it particularly ."Ulnerable to the n.certaInties to which the prospects for the mobilization of additional resources in the amount required are

9ULbJct... at. presentL.* Moreover outLays l thfeL sLO prSopseI.JpO O* .ofUinL A-. L Program would mean more than trebling public development expenditures on agriculture, watLer ar.d. ruSral. works aS com,pared to thLe PIR. 3,200i mL.illlon actually spent during the past five years and imply that well over one half and possibley as much as two thirds of the total increase in pu1bl4 development outlays would go towards the Program. Three corollaries follow. To protect the ActionLor Program... j cut-backs will be requird4-- n othe sectors for which present programs are predicated on the assumption that a total public development prograr in the orde of P1. 2,0 millior. wil be mounted. Furthermore, if it turns out that resources available are closer to the lower tha. the upper end of the range indi.ated sbove, i.e. around Rs. 22,000 million, there is no question that protection of the ALction Prograrn wouldU requiLre severeCLy squeeziLng other pgora-is: there wouLU then be room only for raising outlays on them from Rs. 7,200 million in the hi-rd Plan period LR 's 1to 0 ruillion iLn thle FurtLIh.* Lc Lv response to the compulsions for increasing outlays practically absorb all of this increase. Ai-ltough the content of the programs for the remaining sectors 'has not yet been examined, prima facie some expansion of outlays there will be needed, in part - as in the case of transport - to compiement the program for the agricultural sector. In these circumstances, therefore, some reduction in the size of the Action Program will become unavoidable. Finally, until the prospects for mobilizing additional resources become clearer, Pakistani authorities, in both East and West Pakistan, will have to exercise caution in entering into commitments for new projects and programs particularly those which, once started, will pre-empt sizeable resources for some time into the future.

4.12 Thirdly, relief of the resource constraint is, in part, subject to action by members of the Consortium. This applies in part to project assistance. The three-Year Program Perspective for the Action Program, as given on p. 19 of this report, indicates the need for about US$355 million to be committed in three years for projects, including project preparation and engineering. The average annual level of US$120 million compares with an average of US$230 million committed to project financing by members of the Consortium over past five years in all of Pakistan and about US$75 million for East Pakistan as a whole. Provision for the foreign exchange component of the agricultural input program would require nearly US$80 million a year - 27 -

in non-project assistance, equivalent to nearly half the total annual amount of such assistance made avaIlable to Pakistan a a wholeby mea.mhbers of the Consortium over the Third Plan period. However, these figures, representing Qslebly thea foVre,,r .exhar,,en of outlays on the Action Program give only a very incomplete indication of the extent to which members of Lth Cfonso . S..p m n h el. crate condLift.i ons ,_AUA 4w. wlnich.S 4 AS J A . outlays in East Pakistan can be stepped up greatly. The point that cannot stressed too stror.gly is that4 rchV of the_ for~Crgr,, Eas = --Asa be ~LA. ~L"J ~ U.LJtn~,_A. .4 LI& .L L. UI...L U L LI I C JL V ,.L C111 IL) 4. L.0 U. A. GSX.L a LCILL -_ CULL, particularly those parts of the program that are indispensable if development in East PakistJ. iLs tolube accelerated significantly - hIa-ve on'Ly a fairly small foreign exchange component. In other words, rapid expansion of public develloprent outLays alongL econom,,icall -LLL..1ZysensLU'.L L.Line Ws.L.L LLineViLLaU.ly eLnta'.L.L fast expansion of purchasing power in East Pakistan, considerably in excess of the possibll'ties for increasfng output. If inflation Ls to bue avoie in these circumstances, provision will have to be made for rising imports of consumller goodus, incluudng food, into the Province, from abroad and/or the West wing. Larger amounts of non-project assistance - directly to East Pakistan and, in particular, to West Pakistan to be used in the idle industrial capacity there for conversion into finished goods for shipment to East Pakistan would appear to be an indispensable part or a package of assistance intended to help accelerate economic growth in East Pakistan.

4.13 Fourthly, there can be no doubt that the greatest part of the task of relieving the resource constraint rests with the Government of Pakistan, and the sooner a program of action is set in motion towards raising the additional revenue required, estimated at Rs. 100,000 miiiion, the earlier it will be possible to plan with a reasonable degree of firmness for a public development program for East Pakistan in the order of magnitude suggested here. While much of this task, under the present division of revenue sources, rests with the Central Government and, because of the need to raise the bulk of additional resources required in West Pakistan, with the Provincial Gov- ernments in the West wing, there are a number of areas where the Government of East Pakistan could take action. These include in particular the large amounts of subsidy now involved in the fertilizer and plant protection programs, the contribution by the Government to the cost of operation and maintenance of low-lift pumps and tubewells, the assumption by the Govern- ment of the total cost of large-scale water projects, and the possibility of developing the present inelastic land revenue system into a dynamic source of revenue. 2'

CHAPTER V

AGRICULTURE

INTRODUCTION

5.01 Extremely heavy and ever increasing population pressure, reflected in high man/natural resources and high man/land ratios, continues to dominate East Pakistan's agriculture. The population growth rate accelerated from about 2.7 percent to about 3.2 percent a year during the Third Plan period. The East Pakistanis cultivate about 22.5 million acres, and they cannot expand their cultivable area anymore. (Table 5.1) In 1969/70 the population was estimated at about 71 million, i.e. at about 2,000 per square mile of cultivated land. Population density will probably be about 3,200 per square mile of cultivated land by 1985. At the same time, the arable land per capita will probably decline from about 0.3 acres per capita to about 0.2 acres per capita.

5.02 The pressure on arable land is probably going to be even greater than these figures indicate. This is strongly suggested by the fact that inhabited areas, including village grounds and village ponds! now occupy some 40 percent of the total land area in non-flooded,, good farming areas. Similar population densities can be expected in areas provided with flood protection in the future. Thus, with improvements in the quality of land, the quantity of cultivated area will further decline. and the alrendv acritp scarcity of land will be accentuated even more. Intensification of land use grows more and more vital with sucll develonments. s.03 Agrieiiltiire dominaten East PakiRtan's Pcnnnmvy while indus,trializa- tion is still at early stages. About 90 percent of her population is rural and over 80 percent works in the agricultiirnl ertonr Agricuiiltuir generates about 60 percent of the gross Provincial product, over 90 percent of the exports of the Prov7ince and nearly 50 percent of the totial eports of the country. The export earnings of the Province have declined along with the decline in the competitive positionrof julte, the only -a- expor crop.

5.04 The gross regional product of East Pakistan increased by some 4 percent per annum during the Third Plan period as against a population growth rate of about 3.2 percent -enr ann towardthe- endof theperiod Thus, there was only a notional improvement in the overall per capita income of LIEas'tIDPal.kistan. T.he average per capita inco.,.e ir,creased at 1/, or US$1, a year over an annual income that seldom exceeds US$90-100. Meanwhile, the standard~~aiosru01..L.L1II~ of l'-'viLng probUabl~LU.U± delieUCL._L.LLt=U foWL large-I-.LaL6C -h -ua-and_. seCuentbC6UiCLILb 01I L.Lit LUKa.L dlUU agricultural population. Unemployment increased in the rural sector from about 28 percent to about 32 percent over the Plan period. Tne population on farms with 1 acre or less of land -- estimated at about 13 million -- is underemployed and not self-sufficient in food production. Tne same may well be true on somewhat larger farms. - 29 -

PAST PERFORMA0CE

Nutrition

5,.05C A NTutritiIor.al urvey i n 16/el. fo-.l -I--hA; ulntitir -, 'mi£ LIUL. L L..LUIJ UL V .L7AL .L/UL U4 LULAU LAUIL. bCJL±LUUZ LU4.LLAUL.L.Lt.LOLA prevailed in East Pakistan. Since then underestimates of the population groiwth' rate - ai theref'ore ohfood iMPot requiremensnhave caused ehe retail price of rice to rise from about Rs 25 per maund to Rs 40 at present. Lhe bulk of the populatiLon Jlives outsiLe tne area of influence of the Food Department ration stores, located mainly in the cities and biggest towns, anu has undoubtedly been 'nit nard by rising rice prices ('TaDie 5.2). In fact, many Government authorities maintain that actual hunger prevails in the countryside.

5.06 The production of food crops other than rice has been too limited to compensate for the nutritional deficiency in rice. The factors hinder- ing a nutritional cropping pattern include: climatic and hydrologic conditions that favor rice; the small size of the farms and the poor rice yields that have forced most of the farmers to devote all of their land to rice, the staple food crop; people who are used to eating rice and find it difficult to change their tastes; the infrastructure that has not developed along lines to encourage the production of vegetable oils, pulses, and other protective foods; farmers who can barely grow enough food to subsist let alone grow enough to provide a balanced diet and to sell to the urban population:; and the urban population that does not have the purchasing power to buy enough and varied foods.

Food Grains Availability

5.07 Due to a shortfall in food production, available foodgrains per capita averaged about 345 lbs. a year during the second half of the 1960's, as against 355 lbs. per annum during the preceding five years, according to recently revised estimates (see Table 5.3). The impact of the reduction, which was small in absolute terms, lies in the insufficiency of the basic diet. There is not enough evidence to show that the production of other food crops during this period improved sufficiently to offset the nega.tive effects of the drop in foodgrains production per head. One may conclude that the overall nutritional situation probably deteriorated during the latter half of the 1960's. 5.08 The gross regional product of agriculture only grew about 3.0 per-

ceLn a yearove LeILL1LLXU i Lan perL 'oU as OIUWII UeloUW.

East Pakistan AgricultLural Sector Growth Rates (percent)

Average i965/66 1966/67 196i/68 1968/69 1969/170 3rd Pan

2.6 -L. 1U.3 -0.8 6.7 3.0

5.09 Tne need to grow rice dominates tihe land use (see Table 5.4). During the rainy season two rice crops are grown, the aus crop (early rainy season) and the aman crop (main rainy season). Tneir total area roughly equals the total cultivable area. There is also double cropping in this season since jute and a part ot the aus crop are otten tollowed by aman rice. Only about 18 percent, or 4 million acres, of the arable land is under cultivation during the dry season in the absence of adequate rainfall and irrigation. In 1968/69, about half of this area was in boro rice and another two million acres in rabi crops such as wheat, oilseeds, pulses and sugarcane.

5.10 Rice is by far the most important food crop and occupies about 80 percent of the total cultivated land. Rice production has grown at a disappointing 2 percent a year over the period 1964/65 to 1968/69. The production of minor food crops such as wheat, oilseeds and potatoes has increased at a substantial rate, but these products have had a minor impact on the overall food supply. At the same time, the production of pulses, a potentially valuable protein source for the diet, has increased little. The foodgrain developments have been as follows (see also Table 5.5):

East Pakistan -- Foodgrain Production

(ini in 111Afl toin A J.'if in Is i-n ii 'i r.-Lce LV~~~~~.jtL) LU . *t~94**v .LU 7 ;I xiJ .L .* ±U'JV% ± * LV

TTI - n~~~ A'iJ. A n'iAZ A%n o ArOA f AO A An' f I ^n WL e6L U .UJ)+ u L J.UJ U.IJU v VJU U.:7~ U_V..LUV

Other Food grains 0.019 0.013 0.018 0.081 0.092 0.210 OtherFooa grains~~~ 0.01 0 .O1 0.018o 0.01 0.2 O.831

Total 10.383 1.8 9.496 11.067 1.2 I.83

5.11 Tnus, East Pakistan has become increasingly dependent on food imports. During the last five years the total foodgrain imports averaged about 1 million tons a year as against less than half a million tons a year at the beginning of the 1960's. The imports were 1.1 million tons in 1968/69 and are expected to increase to 1.7 million tons in 1969/70, as shown below. East Pakistan -- Import of Food Grains

Year Tons

1957/58 - 1961/62 500,000 (average per year) 1965/55 888,000 1966/67 1,164,000 1967/68 i,021,000 1968/69 1,120,000 1969/70 1,700,000 (planned)

Major Crops

Rice

5.12 Until thirty years ago the area comprised by East Pakistan was an important exporter of rice. The reason for the Province's growing inability to export rice and increasing reliance on foodgrain imports has been her need to feed a rapidly growing population from the production of a fixed acreage of arable land with near constant yields. Some 86 percent of all rice produced is grown during the rainy season; about 24 percent in the early rains or aus season and 62 percent in the monsoon or aman season. 14 percent is grown in the dry or boro season. Yields in the aus season are poor, an average of 10 maunds per acre, and are difficult to improve with traditional varieties. The IRRI-8 variety intended for the aus and boro seasons was particularly disappointing in the aus season. The aman rice crop is grown on 14.4 million acres with an average yield of 12-13 maunds per acre (Table 5.6). As with the aus crop, the poor yields reflect the little progress made with improved practices till now. IR-5 was tried for the aman season but, like IR-8 for the aus season, proved to be unsuitable in East Pakistan. The only breakthrough realized to date has been with the use of IR-8 in the boro season and this has only been a limited success. Nonetheless, the irrigated area for the boro crop has doubled from 1 million acres in 1964/65 to 2 million acres in 1968/69 and the average yield improved from 15 to 22 maunds per acre. Boro season rice production has nearly tripled during the four years from 0.6 to 1.6 million tons. The principal constraint for the boro season has remained the rate at which land can be brought under irrigation. For rice in general, the constraint has been a lack of successful new varieties, supplemental irrigation, and modern agricultural techniques. The traditional varieties have not responded sufficiently to fertilizer to warrant intensive application. Fortunately, new and more promising varieties are now, or will shortly be, available for all three seasons. The potentials are discussed in more detail in subsequent sections of this chapter.

Wheat

5.13 The maior growth in foodgrain imports has been that of wheat. Rice imports have remained relatively modest, about 3-400,000 tons a year. As a result a chanee of taste in favor of wheat consumption has occurred, particularly in the urban areas -- the natural market for foodgrains. Wheat forms - 32 - one-thirteenth of all food grain consumed. Only one-twelfth of the wheat consumed is locally produced. The acreage under wheat nas doubied since 1964/65 to 280,000 acres in 1969/70. Local production has nearly tripled in the same period (Table 5.7). Yet because of the low starting level, the import gap has increased. Average yields over the Province have been low, rising from 7 to only 8.6 maunds per acre. Most wheat now grown is local seed grown in winter with the aid of residual moisture and limited rainfall. The expansion of irrigation tacilities has enabled some wheat producers to double yields using local varieties; and many farmers have more than quadrupled yields, to 35-40 maunds per acre, using the recently introduced Mexican varieties. The new variety is not adversely affected by heat or by the shorter winter days and is sufficiently quick growing to fit the limited season. A substantial proportion of the 14 million acres which have been identified as suitable for the winter boro rice crop might also prove suitable for wheat. The Fourth Five-Year Plan envisages a doubling of the acreage put to wheat and total conversion to the Mexican and Mexi-Pak varieties. The full implication of the physical ability to grow wheat on a large scale cannot be entered into, as the likely future market prices of wheat and boro rice are susceptible to alteration if the terms of U.S. PL 480 aid change. At present the crops are competitive, boro rice being appreciably more expensive to produce than wheat but bringing a proportionately greater return per unit. Wheat requires one-third the water and considerably less labor, factors that may promote its production in certain areas, particularly on light soils unsuitable for rice production.

Jute

5.14 The principal cash crop and the largest single foreign exchange earner for Pakistan is jute. It is grown exclusively in East Pakistan by 7.5 million farmers on 2.2 million acres. Raw jute and jute manufactures account for about 90 percent of the total value of East Pakistan's merchandise exports and for about 50 percent of Pakistan as a whole although the importance of these exports has been declining slowly in recent years (see Tables 5.8-5.11). The production of jute has only grown very little less than one percent a year during the last decade.

5.15 East Pakistan has a comparative advantage and long tradition in the production and export of jute and jute manufactures. Also, Jute is the most important crop grown solely for cash in East Pakistan. However, in terms of land use jute occupies only about 11 percent of the cultivable land. Jute area is equivalent to about 29 percent of the aus (early rainy) season rice area but being restricted to growth during the early rainy season, to only about 9 percent of the total rice area (1968/69).

5.16 Jute and lute manufactures, however, are the main export products of East Pakistan. Their relative importance has been declining slowly in recent years, but they still comprise about 50 percent of the total value of Pakistan's merchandise exports. - 33 -

5.17 Beginning in the mid 1950's Pakistan has built up a substantial jute manufacturing industry. Tne volume and value of the exports of jute manufactures have grown at a remarkable rate. In recent years (1964--67) the exports of jute manufacturers have accounted on the average for about: 24 percent of the total volume of world exports of these products and for about 21 percent of the value of Pakistan's merchandise exports (1967/68).

5.18 Pakistan's raw jute exports have shown a declining trend from the early 1950's to date. Their share of the merchandise exports diminished from 39 percent in 1964/65 to 28 percent in 1967/68. Moreover, Pakistan's raw jute has been losing export markets at a rapid rate. Her share of the total world exports of raw jute and allied fibers fell from about 98 percent in 1950-53 to about 66 percent in 1964-66. This reflects increased raw material requirements of Pakistan's jute manufacturing industry and the development of kenaf, exported mainly by Thailand, as an important substitute for jute in international trade. Thailand's kenaf exports increased from negligible quantities in the early 1950's to about 29 percent of the total world exports of jute and allied fibers in 1964-66.

5.19 A number of synthetic substitutes exist for jute, such as paper and plastics. The most serious new threat seems to have emerged fromn the development of polypropylene which can be produced in tapes and woven. This development has taken place only during the last three years or so. Moreover, the bulk handling of goods which previously required jute for packing, material is making further advances. These developments constitute an ever stronger threat to the demand for jute.

5.20 A serious weakness of Pakistan's jute industry policies has been that Pakistan has not actively pursued policies for maintaining her share of the exports of raw jute and allied fibers. The policies pursued to date have overlooked the fact that one acre of iute produces the foreign exchange equivalent of about 2-3 acres of traditional varieties of rice. Since there have not been improved IRRI rice varieties available for aus and amman season and since such varieties are not expected to be available until the early 1970's. lute has been competing and will be competing tuntil that time only with the traditional rice varieties. Yet, the agricultural policies to date have concentrated almost exclusively on promoting self-sufficiency in food, especially in rice production. Only recently has jute production begun to receive increased attention. Agricultural policies have not been fuLly oriented toward the growth of the foreign exchange earnings of the country and, consequently, have not been to the country's best advantage since those policies have neglected the promotion of jute cultivation and of raw jute exports while pursuing the expansion of manufactured iute exports and self- sufficiency in food production.

5.21 Jute is likely to face serious difficulties in the foreseeable future. First, competition from substitutes is likelv to grow ever more serious and weaken the demand for jute. Substantial declines in export nrirces nrobablv un to 25 nercent or over, are expected. Second. iur-e is not likely to be competitive in terms of net returns per acre to the farmer against the Pnvinaved TRRT rirc varieties which can be grown In areas; flooded up to about one foot. Such areas comprise roughly 6 million acres. Third, t-e Jute aresa i- expected to diecline -in future irrigated ara this development is suggested by the tentative cropping pattern for the Chandpur irrigation project anA by the ex ninc of Tn4i.n. 1-4o-vr, the nimpat ofa adverse price developments on jute cultivation would probably be initially delayed to some extent by t1he strong tradition of re-arding Jute rather than rice as the cash crop.

Sugar Cane

5.22 The present status and the potential of the second most important cash crop, sugar arnalagou to tIE-t of Jute. Inadequate rsa. a serious problems affecting cultivation, irrigation, organization of transport, prL ~~iclng,L IKatL e Lnd-1 zan,,u m,anufatnrf a c 1-4- r.4 Lave to le resolved) anA a long-term industry growth plan remains to be formulated.

5.23 In East Pakistan, sugarcane growing is confined to those areas -which are not subject to flood damage. Slightly over 400,000 acres have been planted with sugarcane in recent years, producing about 7.5 million tons of cane (see Table 5.12).

,.24 A good part oFL the cane is utilized for local production o£ "gur But East Pakistan has set up a sizable sugar industry as well, though this industry absorbs only a smaii part OI tne cane produced. Totai production capacity, once plants presently under construction and sanctioned are complete, will be about i80,000 tons of sugar annually (see Table 5.13). If this capacity were fully utilized, local production could satisfy demand nearly to the end of the Fourth Pian period. Increased production wouid be of great importance from the balance of payments point of view. In 1968/69 imports of sugar in East Pakistan amounted to Rs 12 million, but imports in West Pakistan were Rs 70 million. However, due to the various constraints, in particular the need for irrigation during the long dry season and due to small farm size, the economics of sugar production requires a thorough review as indicated in a later section of this chapter(paras. 5.192-5.202).

5.25 In 1967/68, East Pakistan nearly reached the desired "self- sufficiency" in sugar production, but production in 1968/69 declined substantially which necessitated substantial imports again. The reason tor the decline was partly a bad production year. More importantly, inflexibility in purchase price policy made the farmers reluctant to deliver cane to the mills. After an exhaustive analysis the Government decided to raise the purchase price during the current year and the present campaign appears to be fairly successful.

5.26 The yields are generally very low even allowing for the fact that the crop has a duration of only 9 to 12 months. The cane yield in other countries adjusted for the shorter growing period of Pakistan is on average at least three times the present East Pakistan yield. Sugar recovery is also low, about 8.5 percent.

5.27 Poor cane varieties are an important reason for low yields. Sugar- cane research and breeding is located in East Pakistan for both East and West Pakistan. Research has been neglected, however, and has failed to produce h.igh yielding varietdies. Ir. order to reduuce the 'leadu tim,e iLn producing such' varieties, the Government is giving consideration to importing high yielding cane from, other countries, as -was the case f'or -wheat an' rice. Tn orler lo A~LL.JL ULLL .. JL ILL± O, a WO LLL U W~LA ~LU LJ. A. LI ~L L strengthen research, an autonomous sugar cane research institute is being set up uy tlet GoUVernmenLLtL ol' East raristan.

5.28 Tne sugar inGusUry suffers irom otner serious probleum. Diuauiy speaking, development at the field side has been neglected while building up the sugar industry. Tne problems are many and serious and cannot be easily overcome. The lack of adequate irrigation and drainage facilities is a major reason for low yields. With the prevailing small farm size, the poverty of growers is a problem since it limits initiating improved practices. Moreover, the average acreage of sugarcane per farm is only about one third of ain acre. Thus, the sugarcane collection area for a mill is large and roads are inadequate.

5.29 Transportation time from the field to the mill is excessively long and the losses of sugar due to wilting during transportation are excessive. nTe stripped cane is;,normally delivered to the factories on bullock carts by farmers within about a ten-mile radius of the mills. Farmers who are farther away convert their cane into gur (brown sugar) for eventual delivery to the mills or for sale locally.

5.30 Many of the mills are located in places that are not the best possible for sugarcane production in view of increased potential for irrigated agriculture, although they may have been reasonably well located prior to the introduction of irrigation. Thus, there may eventually be a need to relocate at least some of the sugar mills. The other major problems which would handicap even the most efficient management are the great number of cane suppliers, the low quality of cane and an inadequate cane supply. Due to the small farm size referred to, the number of cane-supplying farmers ranges from about 10,000 to 30,000 per mill. Handling such huge numbers of small batches of cane is a major problem. With the poor quality of cane varietieEs and the excessive delivery time from farm to mill, the sugar ex- traction rate is low. Finally, the cane supply is inadequate. The EPIDC states that if the mills had an adequate cane supply for operation 121) days a year, their economic position would improve substantially. In view of the above farming conditions and seasonal growth limitations, an adequate cane supply iEI not likely in the near term.

5.31 In view of the above, prices are high at the different levels of the sugar industry. The price announced by the Government for stripped cane at the mill gate is about Rs. 75/ton and is very high compared with other countries. This is coupled with the mills' high processing and marketing margins resulting in high sale prices for sugar by the millS. Meanwhile, imports are kept at a minimum in order to support prices and reduce consumption. The overall result is a high consumer price and the limitation of consumption through a rationing system. Yet, most Of the sugar mills in East Pakistan are operating at a substantial loss, thus placing a severe financial strain on EPIDC which owns most of the sugar miLls. - 36 -

Tea

5.32 For twenty years East Pakistan was an exporter of tea. Diring the first two plan periods the Province exported abroad roughly 30 million lbs. of tea a year. Since then most of the tea produced has gone to West Pakistan. Nearly all land suitable for the cultivation of tea has now been utilized owing to the Government regulation that blue tea estates must plant 3 percent of the total holding to new tea annually. Thus increased production will have to come mainly from increased yields in future. At present yields are poor and since 1964 production has remained stagnant at around 63 million lbs. A new clonal variety of planting material has been tested, which can give a 400 percent increase in yield. The pursuance of a replanting program accompanied by irrigation facilities and certain improvements in the tea processing industry should bring good returns. Ninety percent of the tea produced is grown in the Sylhet area which is under 100 feet above sea level. This tea has desirable qualities for blending and could be exported. However, present production is insufficient to meet the local demands of East and West Pakistan and thus a home market exists for any expanded production (Table 5.J4).

Tobacco

5.33 Tobacco, grown in most districts but particularly in Rangpur, has been a small though important export crop. In 1968/69, 7 million lbs. worth 16 million rupees were exported. However, local demand for all four types of tobacco grown is likely to reduce tobacco available for export considerably, perhaps even to zero by 1974/75 unless production is increased through irrigation. Low yields are due partly to lack of irrigation and partly to poor varieties. Irrigation would provide a sound basis for the upgrading of the industry and for its expansion, since conditions favor the production of tobacco in several areas of the Province. Virginia tobacco has been grown successfully in the irrigated areas of Dinajpur and Kushtia Districts (Table 5.15). Unsatisfactory marketing and, therefore unsatisfactory producer prices, have been major constraints.

Other Crops

5.34 There is also a considerable potential for the inclusion or ex- nansn4n nf valiiualp additive food crons: nulesj grouindnuts, murtard and other oilseeds (Tables 5.16-5.20). Research and extension along with the

expansion of i-rr4gatinn farJliti4e in the rahi 9peson wi1l play tlep mAJor role in realizing their potential. The expansion of both those which are clearly cash crops and of the additive food crops may be vital to any great acceleration of specialized production and the growth of true markets within the Province. This is so because fo.r manyv thenroducrt;in nf the mrninor. AAdIt Ive food crops may bring them into the market, even if only very local markets, and th,erefore into cash farmin,p, as a step to full s1ecialization.

5.3i5 1Tht,efa t-hat few farmer,s devote more than onc-fourth to one-half of an acre to their cash crop, be it jute, sugar or tobacco, suggests the

p LtbtcILL UL LWU ZuULl-11il* ULaLy W UI.a.LL_ELO L.L ;LlL CVlJUIC^J.iV U&LL~A A.*n - 37 -

the nacbs.nc of an active lncal fnnoovrain Ynarklet- nn wyhich theyr can reolxy w-it-h- out being heavily penalized by high prices in poor seasons; and the fact thatb farmers labor unders an In1ab1ltty to 4t.nnp ths4 securtyt hasrd le beauses of poor seed, lack of irrigation and wrong pricing policies with which they muet de--! *hfien growinb cash crops. Effective credilt llinked* witAh. research and extension can help many farmers, but not all. Additive food crops, which are often -r.revaluable crops per unit of landA 4-Lni8 t k sap can act as a cash crop and as a relatively inexpensive staple substitute 'in goodU seasons, or as an effective prouc for ecaLi^in- the1 c alJ-± market in poor seasons. Additive food crops, for which there is littlE OL no r Cesearhiat present, umust be giLven dUue consliderCat . LLIThi par;: in agricultural development is not simply that of a better diet. It is a vital, though unIUraridatic, eelei-ent ofL the creatior, ofl u,iar klets and thereby oi' specia- lization.

Modern Farming Techniques

5.36 Although no agricultural breakthrough has materialized in East Pakistan -- as has been the case in West Pakistan in the last few years -- some progress has been made in modern farming techniques despite the difficulties imposed by the small and highly fragmented landholdings. Further- more, a fertilizer manufacturing industry has been established. Some of the recent achievements are indicated below.

5.37 Fertilizer use has increased from 66,000 tons in 1960 to about 280,000 tons in 1969. It amounts to nearly 10 lbs. per cropped acre per year. This is about half the amount presently used in West Pakistan but it is comparable to the amount used there only three years ago. Fertilizer use on the major cash crops has grown little in recent years. Most of the increased use has gone to rice, particularly the new varieties (Table 5.21).

5.38 In the past five years more than 18,000 low-life pumps have been installed principally through the Thana Irrigation Program (see Chapter VII). The area irrigated in the winter season from these pumps amounts now to more than 700,000 acres. In addition, about 1,300 tubcwells have been sunk. The rapid increase in the boro crop is due largely to these irrigation facilities (Tables 5.22-5.24).

5.39 Farmers are planting the new varieties of IRRI rice; boro rice production increased from 0.5 million tons in 1964/65 to 1.6 million tons in 1968/69 as a result of new varieties appears to be well established and with the support of the input package of the accelerated Rice Program (seed, fertilizer, pesticides) it should be maintained. The cultivated area covered by pesticides, both by ground and aerial spraying operations, increased from virtually nothing to about 15 percent of the cultivated acreage during the last 10 years (Table 5.25). - 38 -

5.40 Although these inputs are not yet fully reflected in incremental production figures, they demonstrate that farmers in East Pakistan are now willing to adopt new techniques when those techniques are clearly to their advantage. The slow growth of agricultural production reflects lagging yield improvements and the prevalence of traditional farm practices.

Fertilizer Manufacturing

5.41 Over half the fertilizer demand is for urea, a fertilizer the Provinces are able to produce at competitive prices. The first urea factory at Fenchuganj, with a capacity of 106,000 tons, has been in operation since 1964. It has achieved a satisfactory levelcof output, from 95-100,000 tons per annum. The major and continuing problem has been its high cost of production, Rs. 525 per metric ton, which contrasts with the present selling price of imported urea of Rs. 492/ton. A:second urea factory at Ghorashal with a planned capacity of 340,000 tons should come on stream in the last quarter of 1970. The capital cost of Ghorashal has been only 128% of that at Fenchuganj and its production costs are expected to be Rs. 450/ton at a production level, of 300,000 tons. Construction of an 8-mile railway spur has been delayed and river transport will be used until the factory is linked with the railhead. The railway spur should be constructed as a matter of the utmost urgency.

5.42 A 12,000 ton capacity ammonium sulphate factory at Fenchuganj recently began to supply the needs of the tea producers. The cost of production is, like the neighboring urea factory, appreciably higher than the imported product (Rs. 520/ton vs. Rs. 460/ton). The first Triple Super Phosphate factory with a capacity of 32,000 tons began commercial production last December and has still to solve problems that have arisen. Two more T.S.P. factories are under construction for completion by the end of 1972. Both have a planned capacity of 120,000 tons. By 1973/74 local capacitv of T.S.P. should be more than 220,000 tons.

5.43 The third T.S.P. factory is a private venture financed by the Pakistan Industrial Credit and Investment Cornoratri.nn hbut 'further interest by the private sector may not be forthcoming until subsidies equivalent to thnoe Qiven fertiier fartories in the nubhlir sertor (up to 55%) are made available to the private sector. Alternatively, the pricing policies could he rationn1iz7ea

5.44 The need to nvnidAe fertilizera fr crops other than rlce will become increasingly important as crop diversification progresses. - 39 -

5.45 The major constraints to agricultural development are the complexity of East Pakistan's natural resources demanding, in principle, a relatively sophisticated inputs package and a correspondingly sophisticated management; a lack of trained manpower; weak institutions; a low overall level of education affecting the farmers as well as all levels of administration and management both in agriculture and non-agricultural sectors of the economy; an inadequate physical infrastructure such as transportation to support an agricultural modernization drive; a lack of focus on the most promising development areas and regions as well as a lack of focus on key Province-wide programs; and an inadequate growth rate in the non-agricuiturai sectors of the economy which could absorb the population growth, both urban and rural, as well as the excess agricultural population.

Farm Structure

Farm Size

5.46 According to the 1961 agricultural census, the average farm size was 3.1 acres of arable land (Table 5.26). Since then it seems to have declined further. This is suggested by recent feasibility studies for water development projects. The problem seems to be particularly acc:en- tuated in the most promising agricultural areas, in many of which the farm size seems to average around 2 to 2.5 acres.

5.47 Of the rural population approximately 20 percent or 13.5 million live on one acre of land from which they cannot obtain sufficient food for themselves. 5.48 The small farmer is defined as someone owning between one aLnd seven acres of land. Seventy percent of the rural population falls into this category. Small farmers hold 13.5 million acres, or 62 percent of the actual agricultural land, but their incomes are so low and their landholdings so small that they can only take limited advantage of the Government"s programs to provide seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and water although these programs are subsidized. In order to facilitate consolidated agricultural growth, a program to meet their particular needs and to provide specific incentives for them-is essential.

5.49 The 10 percent who own more than seven acres can be defined as the large landholders. This group also comprises much of the commercial sector of the rural population. The Government programs to improve agricultural. technology, while not overlooking the larger farms, have been largely directed toward benefiting small and medium farms (see para 5.54 below). - 40 -

Farm Fragmentation

5.50 East Pakistan farms are highly fragmented (see Table 5.27). The average farm plot is less than half an acre per farm. There are two basic reasons for this fragmentation: (a) farms are often divided at the time of inheritance; and (b) to insure the farms against drainage and flood problems, farmers try to have land in different locations at different elevations. The small and fragmented farms result in many difficulties for irrigation water distribution, for the application of efficient farm implements, and for the use of draught power, be it animal or tractor.

Farm Tenancy

5.51 The amount of tenancy is substantial and it is believed to be increasing (Table 5.28). However, statistics on the present situation are unavailable.

Unemployment and Underemployment

5.52 East Pakistan has massive underemployment and unemployment. The East Pakistan Planning Authorities estimate that unemployment was about 28 percent of the labor force in 1964/65. They estimate that the East Pakistan labor force increased to about 3 to 4 million between 1965 and 1970. At the same time, while the total additional employment opportunities increased by about one million, the amount of unemployed agricultural workers increased by about two or three million. The total number of unemployed is currently well over 30 percent of the labor force. Due to this excessive unemployment, the productivity of the agricultural labor force may have declined.

Rural Incomes

S53 Per ralita income in East Pakistan was estimated at Rs 300 in 1969 (Economic Survey of East Pakistan, 1968-69). Per capita incomes in the rural areas are lower than the Provinrial average, nrnhhb y bettween Rs 200 and Rs 250. The income of the unemployed and of the small farmers who have one acre or less, is apparently still lower, i.e., at the verge of the survival minimum.

Impact of Farm Structure on Private Investment

5.54 Undoubtedly, East Pakistan's small farm size, high farm fragmen- tatLion, considerable farr,, tenancy, high unem,ploy.,ient, anlu Low rural incomes are obstacles to private investment in East Pakistan's agriculture. In contrast, private ilVtebtmntIIlyt apltimpO Man ryt rLoLLLUe [in L'a-rastan's recent production increases. East Pakistan's prevailing farm structure is, however, not the only explanatLon Lor the limited pri-vate inivestuent in agriculture. In certain cases, Government policies have made private investment less attractive to farmers than public development assistance (e.g. in the case of smaller than one-cusec capacity pumps). Furthermore, Govern- ment policies do not adequately encourage the larger farmers' private - 41 -

XiXLLaULVe, atLnough East Pakistan needus every possiUble COLILIXLULtIoI to development, and although the larger farms (7.5 acres and larger) have a material portion of the total area, i.e., 39 percent, or the equivalent of some 8.7 million acres of the total cultivated land. The need for pclicies which take into account the development potentials associated with different farm sizes is clear.

Research

5.55 Inadequate adaptation trials and inadequate research have effec- tivelv underminpd; exrent in selected c-ase the nnARilhlitv of formtLlntiny extension programs which would be technically proven and which would promise an adpntiait -- Pvpn dramnrir -- imnrnvpmpnt-lnrpnt4-vp in thi fnrmTr. Tn practice, a dramatic improvement-incentive is often required to make the f2rmpr adnnt an imnrnvpmprnt in FEat Pakistan na farm cnnditinsQ an nfot permit the farmers to accept undefined risks. The current contrast in the stnati of rice and 4ute research highliohts the potentials as well as the problems of agricultural research. The International Rice Research Institute coordinated research which resultled in noe nand pnrnmiQing IRRI rice varieties, IR-8 and IR-5, whicli were used during the Third Five-Year Plan period. The Ford Foundation nna the Fat Pakictan R4i-e Researc-h Tnstitute carrd out adaptation research in Pakistan. To date the IR-8 has had a beneficial impt~ac.t on.yt boro-rice--~no nvn,-1,wtIprodutlo A on,tr,at-cinb that,- a research program with a realistic understanding of East Pakistan's natural resources and withl clear 4 production -b4ective- can h-v great potent al. Yet even ric-e resea-rch has sufferedl from inadequate facilities; for example, East Pakistan's Rice Re- search- St-0ation 4n JoyA--u 4s --ly neain-ow ---- 1-4_rserceton work on rice varieties is still a high priority need.

5.56 However, no spectacular promise is in sight for other important crops 1.in thLe aabsence oi an adeUquate researcn effort. In particuLar, local support for research on jute has been grossly insufficient and has not been malUe goo' by exe. z assistlance. ^A a result t- lte comm.monla±y growLL varieties are several decades old and the improved varieties promise only reLatiLvely riiodues; it'Lprove,,,1ents over the tradLi-tioal. osies * iie promising new varieties now in sight for rice threaten to cause many jute growers to drop jute in Lavor of rice: a move detrimental te the national economy. Ine gaps in research on various other crops such as oilseeds, sugarcane, pulses and tobacco are equally clear. In addition, research on water managenienL, farm management and various other economic aspects of farming including the repayment capacity oL Larmers for proposed improvements such as5 irrigation is inadequate.

5.57 Agricultural research in East Pakistan is now divided among several organizations. Tne Central Governnent has the responsibility for jute and tea and her research stations in East Pakistan; the Depart- ment of Agriculture of East Pakistan has a Directorate for Research and Education, which is responsible for crop and farm management research, and it also has directorates for animal husbandry, fisheries and forestry which each have their separate research programs; in addition the Atomic Energy Institute, the Pakistan Central Jute Committee and the Universities of Mymensing and Dacca, all are engaged in agricultural research activities. The universities are especially interested in basic research and in agricultural economics.

5.58 The Agricultural Research Institute (ARI) which is under the Directorate for Research and Extension, is recognized as the central organization for applied crop research. It presently has sections for agronomy, pulses and oil seeds, chemistry, mycology, entomology, horti- culture and agricultural engineering. Its facilities at Tejgaon (D)acca) are very poor, and the institute is considerably understaffed. The institute's headquarters are being moved from Dacca (where its land has been taken for the construction of the second capital) to Joydepur, 20 miles north of Darr;. wh:ere some 600 acres of land have been acquired, but where a lack of finance has held up the operation. As plans now stand, the institute will eventually control 18 sub-stations and 3 special centers for sugarcane, potatoes and oil seeds research. It should play a vital role in the diversification of agriculture when rice production approaches self- sufficiency.

5.59 The East Pakistan Rice Research Institute (EPRRI) was removed from the ARI in 1970 and granted administrative and financial autonomy. This was done because East Pakistan needed to develop and test new rice varieties, and they could not obtain adequate facilities or staff, under the I)epartment of Agriculture's regulations. The EPRRI presently pays salaries which are almost double those the ARI nays. The Institute is already established at Joydepur, on the land acquired for the ARI, and it has four sub-stations. Since EPRRI is now working in ronnunction with the International Rice Re- search Institute in the Philippines, and with the Ford Foundation in East Pakistan, it should be able to meet the rice research requests.

5.60 The increasingly serious researrh sifint-inon ies nprtlv du,p to partition in 1947 which left East Pakistan without effectively operating researchL fac-ilii-es, an.d partly due to the Government's current lark of appreciation for research, resulting in the inadequate distribution of funds. Right after partition, East Pakistan had the Teg4aon Agricultural research station at Dacca and a few research farms, but all of these stations were uunderstafLfdL andl LlaU inadequate facilii es. Most of the Province's agricultural research was done at institutions now located in India before partitlon. Ln thle first UecadUe alter partition, unt4l about 1958, the Government neglected agricultural research in favor of other Government programs which they believed were more critical to the Province's growth. Research received more attention in 1958 when it became a sub- directorate of the Department of Agriculture. But at the same tLuie autonoous agencies, such as WAPDA and ADC, the Central Government's Jute and Tea research centers, the soil survey, and the Atomic Energy Institute were organized. Uiiable to compete with these agencies in terms of salaries - 43 - a,.d prestige, the Department of Agriculture lost many of its trained agricultural research staff. Laboratory space, equipment, machinery, transport, and land even, remained inadequate for the limited staff that the Department was able to attract and hold.

5.61 In conclusion, a radically strengthened local research effort is required, involving:

(a) A careful evaluation of research priorities;

(b) Adequate incentives to assure the employment of a competent staff and the continuity of the research effort. (The Department of Agriculture is presently considering steps to make ARI and other research organizations attractive enough to get a competent staff.)

(c) The coordination of efforts among the agencies and institutes engaged in agricultural research. The Government realizes this problem and is establishing a Provincial Agri- cultural Research Coordination Board which would coordinate all agricultural research conducted in the province. The Board would analyze present research efforts, avoid duplication and determine new and priority areas where efforts cou]Ld be redirected or initiated. The Board would have its regular staff and funds and would determine the manpower and f:Lnancial requirements of the total research effort. All institutions carrying out agricultural research would release the results to the Board for approval and transmittal to the appropriate agencies.

(d) Improvements in administrative procedures, particularly in the organizational form of the institutes and in the staff's working conditions.

(e) More physical research facilities such as laboratory space, land, equipment and transportation. (Plans to remedy this problem have been made but execution has been lagging due to the lack of finance.)

(f) Preparation of a long-term (10-20 years) indicative research program.

5.62 Agricultural research is vital for me-dium and long-term development of agriculture in East Pakistan and has in fact, become a bottlEneck slowing down the attainment of the Government's objectives with regard to food self-sufficiency, improvement of the population's diet. increased production of cash crops, and the introduction of mechanization. BecauEse the programs for new rice varieties (which need to be continued) were supported by an effective research program, they have been more successful. Agricultural Extension

5.63 In view of the inauequate contribution oi' research, extension programs have had only a limited range of improvements to offer for a limited number of crops. in fact the extension programs have offered substantial improvements only for rice, wheat and potatoes.

5.64 Perhaps the most notable extension program has been available for rice. It has been geared to bringing the inputs package into use comprising items such as improved seeds (IR-8 and IR-5), fertilizers, pesticides and boro season irrigation utilizing mainly iow-ilit pumps, DUt also tubewells and gravity irrigation in EPWAPDA projects. For irrigation, the incentive to the farmer has been clear, in particular since he has not been charged any water rate. While IR-5 has been disappointing, the use of IR-8 has been spreading from farmer to farmer in a very encouraging manner.

5.65 Wheat and potatoes extension work, accompanied by other inputs, has resulted in spectacular production increases but because of the small importance of these crops they have had only a minor impact in the overall food situation. The wheat improvement program has been geared to the introduction of Mexican and Mexi-PAK varieties. On potatoes the improvement program has been based on making seed potatoes available, and providing the necessary advice, inputs and cold storage.

5.66 However, for many important crops, the research and extension organizations have failed to identify improvements associated with adequate incentives to farmers. Consequently, the extension organization cannot demonstrate corresponding success on those crops; in fact, only recently a start has been made with a program formulation for crops such as jute, as mentioned elsewhere in this report.

5.67 Moreover, the extension work has not been adequately oriented to make use of the major projects now underway, such as the Coastal Embank- ment project and the Ganges-Kobadak project, or to promote development in the emerging promising areas such as the Barisal area and the non-flooded areas; in particular the Northwest region.

5.68 Meanwhile, the extension organization is substantial in terms of size of personnel. The Extension Service which, since 1970, is a separate Directorate of the Department of Agriculture, has divided the Province into 4 divisions each headed by a Deputy Director of Agriculture. The staff comprises 20 District Agricultural Officers, 61 Sub-Divisional Agri- cultural Officers, some 400 Thana Agricultural Officers, and over 4,000 Union Agricultural Assistants.

5.69 Yet, the staff is thinly spread over the Province. And each Union Assistant must serve approximately 1,500 farmers or about 5,000 acres, an imnossible task in practice. In countries like Japan, Thailand and the Philippines the number of farmers and acres served by one officer is less than half the Pakistani fieure. This highlights a need to increase the - 45 - staff. The staff's efficiency is reduced since the Union Agricultural Assistants perform many regulatory and service functions unrelated tco extension work so that their relationship with the villagers, and consequently their effectiveness, is impaired.

5.70 Still more important, there is a need to improve the training, upgrade the status and pay of the extension staff and provide them with appropriate facilities as a prerequisite to their improved efficiency in the field. The Government is aware of the needs, generally speaking. Until recently a focus on decisive improvements over a broad front has been lacking; now, however, the Government is taking urgent steps to strengthen the extension service.

Agricultural Credit

5.71 Agricultural credit is necessary for the successful introduction of modern agriculture. Although the performance of agricultural credlit to date has been disappointing, a tailor-made imnrovement in the instittitional mechanism has been evolved, pilot-tested, and accepted by the Governrment. This imrrovement is ready for svstematir hbuild-tin. Tts maior con3traint is the lack of suitable manpower and not the availability of money.

5.72 The need for credit and the difficulty of institutionally clis- nensine lt in East Pakistan arp related to erah ot-her, andl are not de:ffi- cult to explain. Small farmers normally do not conform to the credii:worthi- ness snecifications of lendina institurtions.4 TIn oreir for small fanrers to use modern agricultural techniques and, perhaps even more important, in order for them to vain n fair economic return from their inputs -- includI2g the holding capacity to optimize the price of their output -- they must be able to ohtain credit on non-uiuirinoiua -roma (Tahbl 5.9V).

5.73 During the Third Plan the volume of agricultural cred-it has expanded substantially. The expansion grew parallel with the launching of the "grow-more-food rampaign". Rinno tho principal source of funds for the institutional agricultural credit is the public treasury, the expansion of this credit Alan meant that the Government financed credit mechanism actively4 supported the inputs programs. However, this support suffered from various probloms (Table 5.3).

5, 7L The re-appraisal and strengthening of the existing Co-operative system appears to be inevitable if the systen, is to be utilized to the maxi.m.um extent for. a ma4or cre_4it program.. While providing 'or appropriate J J~~~ YLA.L.L ~ ~L~.VUALL LJL OJL L 4- adjustments, two recent reports, one written for the World Bank, both

**.,'~L .%1V ce^z 5a LaL L L.LotL L.U L tLL±L1 LLUIJJLUVCIUIILLLZ which should bring increased efficiency and service in the short term. 5.75 Three basic approaches are suggested:

(a) build upon the relevant parts of experience gained fcrom. Lthle rura'l infrastructure prograr /see C.hapter VII)T jJLULdI ~ '.dLpLL VA.LL and the knowledge gained from the Comilla experiment -- especially builUding the cred'ULt serVce arouLU a rucleus of economic improvement;

(b) provide an incentive to the commercial banking system to proviue rural creulLt,

(c) extend credit to the distributors of inputs -- fertilizer, fractional pumps, improved seed, etc. -- to permit the distributors in turn to extend credit to the cultivators on non-usurious terms.

In fact, the province-wide expansion of a project for rural credit building on the organizational capacity of the rural works program, integrating the 18,000 already functioning groups of the Thana irrigation program, and employing the relevant portion of the Comilla experience has already been accepted by the Government. Means for making use of the commercial banking network in improving the agricultural input distribution system should be studied immediately.

5.76 Agricultural credit has been described in several reports as the weakest link in the present effort to increase agricultural production. It should not be treated in isolation, however, for the cost of credit to the country will remain high until credit is integrated with extension and marketing. Integration of the services required by the farmers can only come through institutions with which they can identify and which they can control. Until the Co-operatives can achieve this, the communal and moral pressures to repay will remain dormant and the scale of business required to support good management will not be possible.

Storage, Processing, Marketing

5.77 Substantial local variations in the price of rice are common and reflect the marketing, storage and transportation weaknesses. Also, the lack of satisfactory transportation has resulted in numerous small markets for jute and, consequently, the Government agencies have been unable to enforce the minimum producers price for jute. Most farmers suffer losses of foodgrains during storage and, because of their limited holding capacity, they are commonly forced to sell their surplus production soon after harvest when prices are at a seasonal low. However, to help the farmers the Govern- ment is organizing a Warehousing Corporation. Poor transportation, particularly at the inter-regional level, exacerbates their position. - 47 -

5.78 The lak o' rnakt n ffclte to process oilseeds and pe J.I Tme 'acK L1.narkLbLKL dLIU U01. IU±L.L.L.r_ LU PLL~ UL.L U. dULLU jJL- pare other crops for final sale is one of the primary constraints to the development of the agricultural sector. The integ8rated plaLI.rLLg 0f. uaLCL~- ing and processing is needed for all the major crops but cannot proceed until necessary policy decisions are taken regarding them, especially to identify the development areas and policies in line with land and irrigation potentials.

5.79 During the Third Five-Year Plan the IDA ($i9.2 million) and Swedish Government ($4.8 million) jointly assisted in financing grain. storage, facilities, with a storage capacity of 232,000 tons and with a cost of $39 million.

5.80 IDA and the Swedish Government have undertaken to appraise the Second Phase of the grain storage project. It would comprise a silo ot 80,000 tons storage capacity in Chalna, possibly assistance to the rehabilitation of some 800 go-downs (500-600 tons each) and necessary technical assistance. The cost of the silo is rouglhly $14 million (foreign exchange $10.5 million). The cost of the go-down construction and rehabilitation program has been estimated tentatively at $38 million.

Transportation

5.81 Intra-regional Roads: Except for main roads, all-weather roads are virtually non-existent. Normally, travelers can only reach villages along elevated tracks on the embankments bounding the fields. Most cf these tracts are foot paths, too narrow even for ox carts. The situation is still worse since bridges are often missing at water courses, and cuts made by floods are commonly left unfilled. Usually farmers can only reach the field along still narrower foot-paths. Such a transportation situation severely handicaps the performance of agricultural services, the distribution of inputs and the marketing of crops. For bulky and perishable crops. such as sugarcane, poor transportation has already been a constraint although not the only one. The problem is highlighted by the objective of "getting a truck to the village."

5.82 A major attempt to improve local transportation has been undertaken by the rural works program. Although substantial progress has been made, this attempt only amounts to the beginning of an acceptable road system. The program must be continued. There needs to be increased attention to maintenance since the recent political unrest caused a relapse. The program ought to be focussed on the agricultural development points and on the build- up of the provincial transport system.

5.83 Inter-regional Roads. The inter-regional road system suffers from the lack of bridges on many rivers and the inefficient ferry system. The Transportation Department of the Bank is currently contemplating a project which would include improvements in road transport. including river crossings (see Map 4). 5.84 Waterways. A substantial number of towns and villages can be reached by waterways, and country boats are a commlon foru of transportation. Water transportation is handicapped by the virtual absence of motor power.

5.85 Railways. The efficiency of tne raliways is low. Tne Trans- portation Department of the Bank believes that if the East Pakistan Railways were called on to handle about half a million tons of additional traffic they would need to employ serious measures to improve the efficiency of the railways. Such an expansion in railway transportation requirements is likely under the Fourth Five-Year Plan.

5.86 Transportation Survey. A recent commitment has been made under the U.K. Technical Assistance program for the Economist's Intelligence Unit to carry out a transportation survey of the Province.

THE THIRD FIVE-YEAR PLAN AND THE PROGRAM TO ATTAIN SELF SUFFICTENCY IN FOOD

8R7 TIn theo absene- nf effe--tiv aorcriiltu-ira-l reseamrch nari nt-hay ncor4- cultural services, and in the face of growing food shortages and the steady loss of a lgpt of her export market for rw 4-ute, both the Government and the public have grown increasingly concerned with overcoming the difficult flood a.nd drainage proble.ms whch loom as the dominarnt primary cause apparently limiting East Pakistan's agricultural development. Flood protection has becomeamaMo or ornn 4I the formulation of programs.

5.88 A serious effort to introduce water control, flood protection and irrigation, began with the start of the Ganges-Kobadak project in the mid- 1960's, and with the subsequent establishment of EPWAPDA in 1969. In spite of the substantial capital expenditures, the production impact of these efforts has been modest to date.

5.89 The rethinking of the development strategy of the Third Five Year Plan which occurred as a result of the war with India in 1965 led to an increased emphasis on quicker yielding investments. The poor crops of 1965-66 and 1966-67 in both East and West Pakistan, combined with import difficulties, caused sharp rises in food prices in 1966 and early 1967. The combined effect of these two factors plus, to some degree, the arrival of new rice and wheat varieties resulted in the emergence, as a primary objective of development, of self-sufficiency in agricultural production to be attained before the end of the Third Plan. In October 1967 the Government of East Pakistan produced a document entitled "Programme for Attainment of Self-Sufficiency in Food During Third Five Year Plan (1967-70)" (PASSIF).

5.90 As an undesirable by-product, the grow-more-food campaign contributed to diverting attention away from jute, the principal foreign exchange earner, which was regrettably neglected. Yet, an acre of jute earned at least two to three times the foreign exchange equivalent earned by an acre of traditional rice varieties in import substitution. Other cash crops were neglected, particularly sugar and tea, resulting in increased imports. - 49 -

The Agricultural Plan Strategy

5.91 The main source of increased foodgrains was expected to be additional irrigated areas in the rabi season and higher yielding rice varieties. The main reliance for the latter was placed on the new IRRI-8 variety, suitable mostly as a boro crop; it was planned to increase the area under InRI-8 from about 2,000 acres in 1966-67 to over one million acres in 1969-70. Substantial hopes were also placed on IK-5. The main sources of tne proposed increased production are shown below:

Expected Sources of Additional Annual Production ('000 Tons)

Actual Increased of 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 3rd Plan Period ('000 Tons) (Million Tons)

IRRI-8, boro 435 790 1,328) 1.1 (Boro and early Local improved varieties, boro 60 85 151) aus only) Irri-8, aus and aman 23 76 145 0.2 (aus only) Irrigated local varieties, aus and aman 88 127 236 (No noticeabLe con- Unimproved varieties, aus and tribution by aman aman 604 886 1,425 rice)

Total Rice 1,210 1,978 3,285 1.3

Total Wheat, '000 Tons 27 46 90 60

Total Food grains 1,237 20,024 3,355

5.92 Almost 50 percent of the increase in production by 1969-70 was expected to come from the boro crop which in 1966-67 produced about four percent of total rice production. The 1969-70 production of the boro c:rop would thus be over 300 percent higher than in 1964-65, while that of the aus and aman crop would be only 17 percent larger, equivalent to a growth rate of about 3.2 percent per year, or slightly below the rate thought to have been achieved during the Second Five Year Plan (2.9 percent for aus and 3.4 percent for aman). In fact a far more substantial proportiona of the increase in production came from the boro and early aus crops than was expected - 80% vs. 50%.

5.93 The enormous growth in boro production was to be achieved Largely by a combination of low-lift irrigation, improved seed varieties and fertilizers. The major part of the additional irrigation water was to be provided by low-lift pumps of one and two cusec capacity provided thfrough EPADC. A very minor proportion, however, was expected to come from F,PWAPDA proiects, EPADC tubewells, as well as from private tubewells and low-lift pumps. The estimated area to be irrigated in the boro season by each method and the area which was exnecte(i to be irricated in the aus and aman seasons. and the actual achievement were as follows: - 50 -

Expected Increases in Irrigated Area and Results

Base Projection Actual 1964-64 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1969-70 (Acreage Irrigated, '000 Acres)

Boro

Indigenous Methods 921 1,139 1,255 1,355 - /1 EPADCrJ To.w-Lift DL 131 386 5 9. EPADC Tubewells - - 9 22 22 rDLIADnA Proe.cts - 357 94 1 J...UflEL 3J31 3. L~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~JJCS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~LO .JJ -ii 4J .1.11~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Private Wells and Pumps 1 14 45 75 -

Total boro 1,053 1,578 1,962 2,500 2,000

Aus and Aman

EPADC Low-Lift Pump - 5 40 159 EPADl Tube-wells - - - 1 EPWAPDA Projects 5 87(123) 133(189) 150(208) Private Wells and Pumps - - 5 25

Total aus and aman 5 92(128) 178(234) 335(393j)

/1 Apart from the very substantial increases in pump irrigated boro rice, a 47 percent increase in the area irrigated by indigenous methods was expected. This represents an annual growth rate of 8 percent compared with 2.5 percent in the Second Five Year Plan including pump irrigated areas. This is highly unlikely in view of the simultaneous increase in the pump irrigated acreage which occured. It is far more likely that the area irrigated by indigenous methods remained stable or even decreased.

5.94 The development strategy for increasing production in the aus and aman seasons represented no marked shift from that which prevailed during the Second Plan Period and the first two years of the Third Plan. Some additional inputs of fertilizer, pesticides and improved seeds were to be made available and substantial production increases were expected from EPWAPDA's coastal embankment project and from other flood control and drainage works. The sources of additional aus and aman production are shown below. This excludes the increase resulting from irrigated aus and aman. - 51 -

Sources of Expected Increase in Un-Irrigated Aus and Aman ('000 Tons)

1967-68 1968-69 1969-71)

Fertilizer 176 309 578 Plant Protection 65 119 136 Improved Seed 26 66 110 Coastal Embankments 90 124 178 Other Projects 250 283 425

Total 607 901 1,427

5.95 These were regarded as relatively modest proportionate increases a nd little difficulty was expected in attaining them. The un-irrigated Aus and Aman crops, in fact, progressed little during the Third Plan and were one area of real disapnointment. The absence of varieties responsive to fertilizers and pesticides largely undermined this effort.

5.96 In addition to the increases expected from rice, PASSIF assumed a larag increase in ,.wheat nrnduretinnj another dry 8eaSnn cron. Production of local wheat varieties was expected to rise from 43,000 tons in 1967-68 to 60,000 tons in 1969-70, while production of Mexi-Pak wheat would an from 24,000 to 50,000 tons. In fact total wheat production in 1967-68 was 58,000 ton- aand not the 67,000 tons estimated at the time. Wheat nrnduction in 1969-70 reached 100,000 tons, only 10,000 tons short of the target, estab- lishedA unr,i.netio.ally, high due to over-estim.ated base periodo Twenty-one thousand acres were sown to the Mexi-Pak variety and produced roughly 25,000 tors of thhe adiduittiloral* 3Wheat, or 6- pcet of the increase. The acreage under wheat has doubled since 1964-65 to 280,000 acres in 1969-70 while overajl.l productlon nearly 1tripled

Agricultural Expenditures Under The Third Five Year Plan

5.*97 The public developmuer.t expndltures on agriculture - defined to comprise three sub-sectors (agriculture and food, water development, and ene ruraL works prograrn.)-uiJ ounted to near'Ly one-third of the totalU ment expenditures under the Third Five Year Plan; actually the agriculture sector expenditure declined from 33.4 percer.t of the total expenditure in. 1966-67 to 31.8 percent in 1969-70 (Table 5.31). The total agriculture sector expenditure amounted to 3.6 billon, ofLs which 1.4 billion was; spent on agriculture and food programs and about a similar amount also on water development programs whlle the expenditure on rural works was Rs 0.' billion. 52 -

5.98 In line with the above strategy, the expenditure pattern reflects a dUecLsive shift in e.mpasis i favor of agriculture and food production programs as against water development programs. The shift in emphasis was consistent wLLtith tLhle concAlusio,ns of the Bank's rev4eW of IECO'.s Master Plan, the Water and Power Resource Development in East Pakistan (dated November 8,

1965)5 . `L.e expendiULtures on agricul.ure and food programs in.creased much mnore rapidly, i.e. from Rs 140 million in 1965-66 to Rs 410 million in 1969-70 than those on th'le major water dUevelopmIen-L work's progra of W^°DA; the lat expenditures rose over the same period from Rs 220 million to Rs 280 million. Tne expenditures on agriculture and food progralls (i,ncluding tubewell irrigation) increased steadily from year to year; in contrast, the expenditures on water development programs levelled off, reaching the level of Rs 290 million in 1966-67 and were then about Rs 320 million during the subsequent two years but declined in 1969-70 to 280 million, i.e. to below the leveL reached in 1966-67.

Main institutions for and Main Expenditure Components or the Agriculture and Food Programs -

5.99 The Agriculture Department and the institutions associated with it are mainly responsible for the implementation of the agriculture and food programs. The biggest developmental spending agency related to these programs is ADC which is the principal inputs supply agency but also has undertaken some land development activities.

5.100 The Food Department's efforts to develop grain storage have been important (see para. 5.94).

5.101 The principal inputs programs under the Third Five Year Plan were fertilizers, Rs 370 million; plant protection, Rs 200 million; and mechanization, i.e. mainly low-lift pumps, tubewells and related requisites, Rs 200 (Table 5.32). The progress made with these inputs was described in paras. 5.37-5.39.

5.102 The expenditures for the above three purposes are predominantly subsidies. Fertilizer subsidy covers more than 50 percent of the cost of fertilizers up to the point of delivery to the farmer. Plant protection is completely free of charge. Regarding pump irrigation, the amount shown above is a subsidy. These subsidies, as a part of the"respective production programs, have made a major contribution to development as shown by the results discussed above. Whether the subsidy policies should be continued will be discussed below in connection with the Fourth Five Year Plan.

5.103 Expenditures on seed multiplication and distribution (ADC) were only about Rs 30 million during the Third Five Year Plan. This reflects a failure to give adequate attention to a development potential which should have had a very high priority. - 53 -

5.104 Also there were expenditures for various other purposes such as fisheries, Rs 80 million; forestry, Rs 60 million; and co-operatives, Rs 40 million, while the expenditures for each such -important purposes as agricultural extension, research and marketing were less than Rs 20 million over the Third Plan period.

5.105 In conclusion, the expenditures and other associated efforts to expand the use of inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides and pump irrigation have resulted in a rapid rate of expansion in their application. Their impact on overall production has, however. remained modest because of the low starting level of these developments.

5.106 Moreover,' production impact has been partly obscured by temporary fluctuations in rainfall. drainage and flood patterns. The increase in the boro irrigation and production of boro rice highlights most strikingly the progress made.

Land Canabilitv Data Generatpd hv the ITND)P Snils and Land Capability Survey during the Third Plan

5.107 Over the,-Third Plan period the basic information for land use nlanning imnroved fundamentnllv asa A rea,tt nf the-I lnnd t-anabhilitu diata generated by the UNDP Soils and Land Capability Survey which terminsated at the end of 1969., At present, the data are beir.g prodessed for local land use planning by local offices under the UNDP follow-up project which started at the begin.ning of 1.5 s 5.108 ,he Iv^TITUsurvey coveredd zb1out 615- percer.t of -le- agriculturally a1 J.S.J ~ -L CLL V tuIJA t. .J fJL L.L L 5 LtlI .L LA . .LA . y important land of the Province. In terms of detail, the survey met the standards specified for a reconnaissance surv-ey by thCe U.S. Soil Con- servation Service. The classification system of the U.S. Soil Cons,er- vation Service was heLIrLUemodified to some exter.t to tak-e accourlt of the special characteristics of East Pakistan, in particular East Pakistin's hydrologic conrdltions as reflected inrdrairnage and flood patterns.

5.109 In this survey, the soils, placed in the hi,hest class have the least limitations for agricultural use and relatively little effort is required to nroduee hiah -ron yields= Tn surccsQiveyv lwner -1lassen there are increasingly severe limitations for agricultural use and :Ln- f!renainalv great effort; In terms of expendituire in reqiiired to nroduce high crop yields. The poorest class V is unfit for economic agricuLtural tse.. _~~~~The hPst.. I--- e.. CASlR----- __w_T- ----aniln ____ s:--- ___arev monnt r0acrnn -e- ani-)--- mngapemant.rrsaoo- -! _ __ Lower classes have ,successively lower potentialities for improvement. Thi8 feature i8 used as a .ma4,er criterio.n different -i-g Class III from Class IV soils; in"the case of Class III soils, improvement to a higher level of productivity, although difficult, i8 considered feasible and economical; in Class IV improvement to a higher level of productivity is considered imractical ar.d uneco.omical.

5. 11' T.he J*T*5P survey places ...ore e-mpha84s th4an the oziS.a*l I.t . Soil Conservation Service classification did on the capability of soils to produce satiafaeztory crops thro-ighout the year then on the range of crops that i-ould ' e grown. Nevertheless, they lfouad Ll.at e-ven with soils that are seasonally flor:ded, those that have the highest total productivity are almost always those that hare the widest range of crop possibilities in the dry season. Their classificatiorn also reflects the pattern and difficulty of drainage and rloodixig. To re-emphasize, implicit in tneir classification is a statenont of the econtomic potentiality of tChe soil for improvement .

5.111 Since several 14anl m:_sJicns have reviewed the soils and land capability data produced by tne TNDP survey, it is safe to conclude that tne soils and land canability survey work done ?o date:provides a sound basis for many planning purposea. More detailed inforiiation is likely to be needed than provided by a recon-na ssance soils and land capability survey. Hlowever, 'oy t>e fdentification ef potential development areas, and for the sulsequent: planning oi- physical and institut!.onal infrastrtcture for those areae the available intormaition should be fully ad.equate. Further information w'll e prcvi.ded by the current UNPD project (initiated in 1970) to interpret the r:iJ.s an," land capability 5ur%'ey results for the agricultural develop.c?nz work.

Current Soils and Land L.apability Data for Land Ilse Planning at Local. Level

5.112 At the beginning of thts year a UNDP follow-up project (to the terminated solls and land capability survey project) \Jent into operation. The main purpose of the project Is to process further the data to bring it to use withouti delay sirice it is basic to land use planning. Soil strvey data can be interpreted for a w-ide variety of purposes. In the existing reconnaissance soil sturvey reports, soil sturvey data are already interpreted in terms of l&nd capability, irrigability,.crop suitability, soil genesis, etc. The proposed soil survey interpretation units are intended to develop these interpretations further so that they may be more easily understood and used by agrIcultural planners and extension staff.

5.113 Specifically, in East Pakistan, the interpretation unit will assist the Thana Irrigatior. Program by:

(i) providing for each Thana within the surveyed area a tabulated statement on the area and location of soils suitable for irri- gatlon and for particular crops; from this, Thana and higher nlanning officials can draw uD realistic plans for agricultural development by low-lift pumps, tubewells, improved crop varieties, tractor nloughingr etc.:

(ii) providing simplified ouides to the soils -and aaricultural development possibilities of each thana surveyed; these guides will be published in Benali so that they may readily be understood and used by extensiorn staff and literate far.ers; - 55 -

(iii) organizing field instruction courses to demonstrate to agricultural officials at various levels how to make use of these' guides in siting irrigation pumps and in advising farmers to cultivate crops or crop varieties best suited to their;soils;

(iv) providing assistance in planning; the interpretation unit wilL also be available to provide government planning and development agencies, as needed, with interpretations on such matters as:

(a) basic data on soils and land capability for preparation of long-term agricultural development plans, including 5-year plans;

(b) location of areas suitable for cultivation of crops requiring concentration around a processing facility (e.g. groundnuts, cotton, sugarcane, tea, rubber);

(d) distribution and location of sites for agronomic trials, including soil fertility and irrigation trials;

(e) distribution and location of sampling sites for compil- ation of agricultural statistics including a2ricultural census data.

Most Suitable Land'for Present and Future Intensification of Aericulture

5.114 Out of the total 22.5 million arres nf the cultivatepdi 1n,d (see Table 5.33), large areas would be suited for intensification of agriculture without construction of drainage and flood protection works according to the data generated by the UNDP soil and land capability survey. The Survey group has determined the drainage and flood nattern and the 'Land areas suitable for various agricultural uses as indicated below (see Map 2).

5.115 Land Suited for IRRI Rice. Since rice is a staple food and s:Lnce the capability to increase rice nrodurtion in a rritlcal elament in EnaI: Pakistan's development planning, the land capability estimate has been llade specifically in terms of notential to incroana ritc nrnAduc-t-4n. Tha.% fo Il^w- ing assumptions were made in making this assessmient of land suited for ][RRI rice varieties:

(a) the 80il in suitahle for flnnel ir 4gation wlthout excessive use of irrigation water;

(b) f'or IRRI'boro or aus, the land is not flooded, or is subject only to ~vershnllow floodlr.g, for at least five mo..ths Jn theand rablearly kharSf seasons;L ~ .L V ~ the rabi and early kharif seasons; - 6 -

(c) for IRRI aman, the land is highland or medium highland which is not normally flooded more than 1 foot deep after end-July;

(d) the acreages quoted are gross, exclusive of rivers and settlement. The net area irrigable will be smaller due to local topographical irregularities, etc. Probably muiti- plicat lon by a factor of 0.7 would give a more realistic figure for the net area irrigable;

(e) areas of land suitable for two IRRI rice crops per year with irrigation have been indicated separately. These areas deserve the highest priority in irrigation development (provided adequate irrigation sources exist) since it is these areas which can provide the maximum contribution to increased food production;

(f) the estimates relate solely to suitability of the soils and land for irrigation and IRRI rice cultivation. They do not take into account -vailability of water for irrigation.

5.116 The areas identified for IRRI varieties are as follows:

(1) about 6 million acres for growing transplanted IRRI aman rice (see Map 5);

(2) about 14 million acres for growing transplanted IRRI boro and aus rice; and

(3) from the combined acreage above, about 4 million acres on which 2 IRRI rice crops could be grown annually.

5.117 Most of the areas suited for IRRI aman varieties are located in the northwest region of the Province. The districtwise estimate is shown in Table 5.33. There are also substantial areas of such land in the northeast region, in Comilla and adiacent areas. in the Chittagong area, and in the southwest region. With the identified non-flooded land for the newly developed aman season IRRI rice variety, IR-20. the potential to expand rice production is no longer essentially determined by the capacity to exnand irrigation. although sunnlementarv irriQation would nrovide assurance of a crop. In contrast, up to now the IRRI rice varieties were Ruite(d only for the boro seaRnn and there was an uneertaintv about the amount of non-flooded land available which made the expansion in the cu,ltivAtion of TRRT ricr variptipe eritieallv dependent upon contrel led water supplies. Thus, these new developments have enabled a major shift in the rice nronAuct4n strAtega so that ntich of the emphasis 18 now placed on the aman season in the Fourth Five Year Plan, as discussed below in more detail.

5.1.LJ..U Th=e lan.d suiteA for boro anA a-as season I.RRI rice varletles covers much of the Province (Map 6). - 57 -

5.119 A tentative conclusion of the UNDP Soil and Land Capability Survey has been that soil moisture conditions in the Province are such that improved transplanted varieties might provide increased yields w:Lth no exogenous water inputs. This could have dramatic implications on i:he economy and particularly on the acceleration of the pace towards crop diversification. This means that a closely coordinated follow-up by both the UNDP and the Ford Foundation Research Team should commence at the earliest possible time.

Land Suitability for Crops other than Rice

5.120 It should be noted that these areas suitable for IRRI aman rice varieties would also be suitable for a variety of upland crops in the rabi season with irrigation since they are, in general, the higher ridge lands with lighter rains than the depressions. Expanding the productLon of several crops is needed both for import substitution as well as for improving nutritional standards. Consequently, the UNDP study has made approximate estimates of land areas suited for crops such as oilseeds, in particular groundnuts, wheat, pulses, tobacco and cotton. The suitable areas are highliahted in Maps 7-10.

5.121 The bia2est concentration of areas suited for wheat, pulses, groundnuts and tobacco is in the northern region, especially in the northwest, but there are also substantial areas suited for these crops scattered over much of the Province. The land suited for cotton is located largely in the northwest. The cultivation of these crops can also be substantially intensified, in selected regions even without irrigation but usine better timing of the planting and harvesting dates. The latter potential has been grossly underutilized because of the inadeqllate infrastructure; the absence of annronriate nroduction and extension programs, and, basic to the whole, because of a failure to appreciate the full consequentes of the land canabiitv siirvey for the formulation of a development strategy.

5.122 In general, the IRRI aman areas emerge as the most promising development re2ions since the same regions have the best cropping potential also during the dry season - due to the possibility for diversification. provided that irrieation water is available. Thua. identifvinu irrigation water supplies for the respective areas is a major issue of high priority. Regarding various regions. the northwest emerges nerhaps as the most promising region, again dependent on the availability of irrigation water (see also Chanter VI). - 58 -

Government's Role

5.123 Tne identification of areas suitable for IR-2O and the increased urgency with which Government has begun to tackle the problem of priorities bode well for a period of growth directed towards optimizing resuits in both the short and the medium term. The on-going program of agricultural inputs (excluding water which is treated separately below) must be expanded, improved institutionally, and adapted to the emerging new seed/ land capability/least cost water avaiiaDiiity strategy. Regional potentials will have to be focussed upon and utilized to realise maximum returns. Credit and extension work are essential in addition to the provision of fertilizer and pesticides. Both financial, administrative and political support will have to be given to programs to improve the capability of the agricultural service departments and of the rural institutional structure. Real gains can be made through the Integrated Rural Development Program for cooperative development, the expansion of the Thana Irrigation Program and with a formulation of the Rural Works Pro- gram more closely oriented to support the emerging strategy. Similarly, the re-ordering of the existing co-operative structure, which can be done quite quickly, and the formulation of a co-ordinated and expanded training program for all the development agencies so that trained manpower does not soon become a constraint, are immediate goals that government must entertain and which will help considerably to realize the other "production" goals. In the more medium-term, the provision of adequate research facilities capable of attracting and holding competent staff is imperative for the needed diversification and commercialization of agriculture.

ACTION PROGRAM IN THE FOURTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN

5.124 Pakistan's Fourth Five Year Plan and therefore East Pakistan's Agriculture sector Fourth Five Year Plan are being launched from a weak- ened economic base discussed in detail in the latest Economic Mission report and highlighted in chapter IV of this report. The record of the past five years is one of unsatisfactory economic growth (with the exception of agriculture in West Pakistan), unsatisfactory fiscal and balance of payments performance, slow social progress, and an increasing income disparity between East and West Pakistan. Statistics suggest that for both East and West Pakistan the rate of economic growth was slowing down in the latter half of the sixties.

Oblectives for the East Pakistan Economv

5.125 The general objectives and the specific growth targets of the East Pakistan Fourth Five-Year Plan have been set in line w,-Ith the naee to initiate an improved development pattern for the economy at large. - 59 -

5.126 The principal objectives stated in the Fourth Five-Year Plan are to raise the standard of living through increased food supplies and to improve incomes; to create employment opportunities; to ensure greater social justice through the improved supply of social services; to reduce the income disparity between the West and East Wings and to provide flood control. In addition, agriculture is to contribute to foreign exchange earnings.

5.127 In order to reduce the income disparity with the West Wing, the East Pakistan planning authorities had initially proposed extremely ambitious growth and development expenditure targets, 8.8 percent per annum for the GDP of the province and 6.5 percent per annum for the GDP share of the agriculture sector. With the approval of the total size of the National Plan on June 2, 1970, the growth target of the East Pakistan economy was reduced to 7.5 percent a year. This allows for the reduction of the agriculture sector target, probably to about 6 percent. Consistent with the targets, the total public development expenditure has now been projected at Rs 29.4 billion during the Fourth Five-Year Plan period as against the actual expenditure of Rs. 11.4 billion during the Third Plan.

Agriculture Sector Growth Targets

5.128 The new growth target of the agriculture sector is not available nor are the targets for individual crops but they must still remain ambitious to be consistent with the new 7.5 percent target growth rate of East Pakistan's economy. A breakthrough is possible for rice, and wheat should continue to expand along with the expansion of irrigation. For other crops, growth depends on overall improvement in practices, i.e., the growth rate depends on evolutionary rather than revolutionary innovations. For these crops acceleration probably falls short of rates required to reach the targets since an increased momentum in evolution is yet to start, broadly speaking. The targets set for specific commodities by the original Plan are shown in Table 5.34.

rood Production

5.129 The need to grow food, i.e. mainly rice, is still the main determinant of agricultural strategy, but the Government also intends to give substantially more attention to the principal cash and export crop, jute, than during the Third Plan period. The Fourth Plan food production strategy as reflected in the tentative Plan documents is consistent with and is, in fact, a continuation of the Third Plan food production strategy, broadLy speaking. The strategy continues to place the main reliance on the short and medium term inputs ranging from improved seeds and associated inputs such as fertilizers to low lift pumps and tubewell irrigation. The construction of large-scale water proiects would be oriented toward agricultuaral production from concept to completion with a considerable improvement in phasing over past performance. - 60 -

5.130 The Fourth Plan strategy contains a difference of fundamental importance from the Third Plan strategy, i.e., a shift of strategy to place much of the emphasis on increasing the output of the main crop which comprises about 60 percent of the total rice production. If the improved variety is successful, the rice production program will be relieved from exclusive dependence on irrigation. The new approach is based on two important breakthroughs--identification of non-flooded land by the UNDP Soil and Land Capability Survey and the development of a suitable IRRI rice variety for the aman season, IR-20. Meanwhile, the policies initiated to promote boro and aus rice cultivation would continue, but expansion in the production of these crops would still be limited by the fundamental constraint of the capacity to expand the irrigated area.

5.131 There have been no major changes in the production strategy for food crops other than rice and cash crops other than jute. The Government is, however, undertaking projects to increase the production of sugarcane, potatoes, oil seeds and wheat although it has not drawn the full conclusions and not fully evaluated the far-reaching implications of the identification of unflooded areas and of light soils by the UNDP Soil and Land Capability Survey except for rice. The survey identified areas of great potential for crops other than rice. The need for a regional approach in the development of crops other than rice is implicit in the identification of suitable areas. Thus, an inadequate effort has been planned for the development of these crops. Intensive planning is needed to increase and intensify the production of crops such as sugarcane, oil seeds, pulses, and tobacco in suitable areas. The provision of the required inputs, agricultural services and infrastructure for these crops in their respective areas/regions would also be required. Finally, the marketing, price policies and other issues associated with diversification to such crops will emerge as a major issue when self-sufficiency in rice is obtained, say by the mid-1970's.

Main Components of the Action Program

5.132 The Action Program outlined in the report has been formulated to achieve the maximum impact on food production with the emphasis nn ri ee raising foreign exchange earninzs through imDrovements in the production and marketing of jute, as well as increasing the production of CrnnO such as wheat, potatoes, oil seeds, sugarcane and tea. The various measures involved are outlined below: - 61 -

Seed Program - Rice 5.133 A breakthrough in knowledge demonstrating the availability of 1 ndlq,ii t-pd fnr TRRT ri rp varietleA during the AMAN seann the breakthrough in the development of new IRRI-20 rice variety for that season at the Tntprnational Rice Reqparrh Tnstituttp nf thp PhilinnInesi and the promising results from the early trials with this variety in East Pakistan are the basic elements for the nw rice production strartegy. This strategy relies heavily on aman season potential since this opens a possibility to expandice proActiot4nn witthouiit hbengryco .. plely ,lar., f o the, rate at which additional areas can be irrigated. Moreover, new IRRI rice varieties for the BORO aand AUS seasons will soon be ready for multiplication. T!-e seeds supply program' is geared initially to provide the AMAN IRRI rice seed, but wou ld be followed by adequate seed .ultipli ation programs fc r the BORO and AUS season IRRI rice varieties once they are ready for .."ltpllicatilon.

5.134 In view of these newly emerged prospects, the East Pakistan Govern- ment has adopted an ambitious overall target of increasing rice product;ion by about 5 million tons over the Fourth Five-Year Plan period. The AMAN season rice production would comprise about 50 percent, the AUS rice about 34 percent, and BORO and early AUS rice only about 16 nercent of the ptro- jected total increase. In contrast, some 80 percent of the total Thircl Plan increase of 1.34 million tons was contributed by the BOR^ and earlv AUS rice, and 20 percent by the AUS crops, while the AMAN crop made no contribution. 'The comonnents of the inrreaqp hnvp horn n7roiPrtAd hv tfip East Pakistan Planning Department as follows (see also Table 5.35): Million tons of Rice 1969-70 1974-75 Increase Aus 3.08 4.80 1.72 Rrnadcast Aman 1 2 1.92 0.00 Transplanted Amnan 4.90 7.40 2.50 Boro -1.64 2.41 0.77

11-54 16-53 4-99

_135 Arcelerated rice nroduction nroram The crturIal element in the increase of the aman rice crop is the introduction of the new IRRI rice variety, IR-20 (IR-,/329 - SU). This2arIety has emerged from the recent trials with excellent promise for cropping during the aman season. It has shown considerable resIstan.ce to bacterial leaf blight and tungro vius: and some resistance to other pests. It matures in about 135 days, and it does not have to be planted before the 15th of July, which is well Into the monsoon season when the occurrence of leaf hoppers is at its lowest:. It matures Just -a the rains erd in mId-October. It is not as se-ant4,.re to the lack of water as the two local varieties, the yield of which is substantially reduced if the water sho-a occu at.- the time of flowEtring. It has an average stem length of 100-115 cms, but does not lodge, has a percentL Ihigher yieldal potentical than IYL8, Lnd Tall,D-IR "as a - 62 - meiodi im long grain of wrcollpnr tanhle nqulitv qnd is verv detfinit-Ply of export standard. This variety is considered an improvement over the traditional varieties in nractically every

5.136 Wlth this variety, yields have been proJected to be at least 25-40 percent above those of the local varieties. Hiigher yields of 50 maunds are considered a reasonable possbility.- Ihe- Ford FoAunation tas jprJ,cJ . that in order to realize most of its yield potential, improved methods would defi- nitely be required and probably some supplement.al irri.at-ilon, although £its maturation period is fairly well adjusted to the duration of the monsoon sea0 son _. .F. i . t tl r. an. o . wat r s h-rtaI-.. i. 0s reAtivelyCs gJAL

*CLaV CLs L Cit UC >(-tCI)0 JCCtX WVLip C IC L I L

5.138 Experts have estimated that, with the transplanting practice which is to be followed, about 50,000 acres should be adequate to provide seeds for some 5 to 6 million acres of transplanted rice. It should be noted that the area of suitable land according to the UNDP soil survey has been estimated at about 6 million acres althoughi there may be some more land (another 1.5-2.0 million acres) that could be marginally suited for this variety. In conclusion, it should be possible to multipiy enough seed well before 1974/75 to cover the entire suitable area. The only question mark is the performance of the variety itself. This can be determined with a greater degree of certainty towards the end of this cropping season.

5.139 Improved IRRI rice varieties are now in sight for the aus season. Two varieties are about to be distributed to farmers and several others are in the '"experiment pipeline". One of the varieties, IR-272, is medium tall and matures in about 100 days when broadcast sown and in 113 days when transplanted. Thus, if planted with early rainy season showers in March, 63 - the crop should be ready for harvesting'from mid-June-through mid-July, well before the peak flooding. [This would be a major advantage. This variety will be-distributed shortly to farmers. There is also another variety (IR-140) which shows promise for the aus season. :Its maturation period is 120-125 days. These varieties, largely due to their disease resistance, promise a yield increase of 30-60 percent even under traditional farming practices, i.e. not including irrigation and commercial inputs.

5.140 Ln addition, there are better IRRI rice varieties which will soon be ready to support continuation of the efforts to increase BORO season rice production along the lines adopted during the Third Plan. The varieties are called .IR-140-130 and IR-532-176. The maturation period of the latter (IR-532-1-176) is 140-155 days, i.e. 25 .days shorter than that of IR-8 (165-180), it has a good level of -resistance to disease and may prove resistant to stem borer. It has a grain :of medium quality and yields about 60 maunds of paddy per.acre.or.20 percent more :than IR-8. The other boro season IRRI variety ready for distribution shortly, IR-140-130, has a maturation period of 120-125 days (i.e. 45-days shorter.maturation period than that of IR-8), it has excellent cold tolerance. is medium tall and thus suitable.for traditional low-lying boro areas as it can tolerate water up to 1-1/2 feet deenp it is a vigorous grower; it has some resistance to diseases but no resistanceLto pests. It has a long grain of medium qua:Lity, similar to the nresent'lnoal rice of highest quality, has been conqistent1v the highest yielder .in-trials.and has out-yielded IR-8 in boro season byr about 20 perrent This varietv does very well also urndier iinland; non- irrigated conditions and should be excellent also for the aus season. Its maturation neriod is 120-125 dasu.. Thp-third promising boro season varirety (IR-297) is; a real dwarf variety, resistant-to-cold and diseases but.not: partircilarly to nortq Tt mat,ursq 319 dnvaQ e-.ar1iPr.tha=n TR-R Rpenause of its low stalk, it cannot be grown in areas subject to inundation (low-lying areas). Ihe yield rpotpntrit-l is ahoutf- eq,ual t-o% that- nf TR-8, and the grain is of medium quality.

5.141 T'he Planning Department's projections regarding the contribution to be made by the couination of these new varIeties and by the variousnir- rigation developments discussed in Chapter VI can -be summarized as follows (sen also abr.le 5.35):- Increase.in Irrigated Area-(acres) During Fourth Plan Period loro and Early Transplanted Aus Aus AAman 40,000 low-lift pumps 1 ^000 000 7 ArIA 20,000 tubewells -- 1,000,000 1,000,000 ',!APDTA'1 proJ.ets A-hat .woudA

be ready by March:1, 11975 - - 250,000 -

1 000 000 1,000,000 2 >000 X0 a/ Excluding the area under local rice and crops other than rice. - 64A -

.142L LtenL[ative proJections are possible with a substantially larger aman rice area of IR-20 grown in areas where irrigation may or may not be necessary. For exaimple, tLhI LULd± LLtr1aJslatdLLU amlai [LCe area, flooded up to about 2 feet, is roughly 9-10 million acres, of which some 6 million acres is flooded up to 1 ft. Fui.her, in view of the small gradients or East Pakistan, the area flooded up to 1-1/2 ft. and marginally suited for IR-20 mav be some 1.5-2 million acres. If the seed is as good as expected, the use of it may expand also to some marginal areas such as these. It is not in- conceivable that the total area may reach some six miiiion acres.

5.143 An efficient seed supply system for IRR! varieties is one of the major needs of the Fourth Five-Year Plan period in terms of impact on the production, but only a minor item in terms of the total investment required. The initial results depend largely on the performance of the existing seed dlstribution system, in which ADC is the most vital component, as well as the success of the lR-20 itself. In view of ADC's emphasis on the program, it is timely to make the necessary preparations for a successful seed collection from the farmers in fall 1970, for the subsequent handling and storage and for distribution of seeds to farmers in 1971. Initially seed distribution would of course have to depend largely on the existing system and improvisation. Seed distribution is not entirely dependent on any institution, however, since there is likely to be a fair amount of distribution from farmer to farmer.

5.144 The seed multiplication and distribution programs lhave not been worked out for the new IRRI aus and boro varieties. Thley may eventually require similar crash programs as for IR-20 now. In light of these problems, ADC has prepared a project for the improvement and expansion of the seed production and distribution system. The project would comprise improved management, irrigation facilities, farm machinery, seed processing facilities, storage facilities, transportation and laboratory equipment for the 22 ADC seed farms. It would also strengthen the supervision of the registered growers, whose number would be brought to about 4,000, and improve the seed distribution system by making provisions for additional staff, seed storage, processing machinery and vehicles. The project is almost ready for appraisal and would only need some firming up, which could probably be done at the time of appraisal.

5.145 The cost of the project, excluding the cost of the commercial procurement and resale operation of the certified seeds, is estimated by ADC at US$9 million, of which US$3 million would be in foreign exchange. During execution of this project a follow-up seed project would be prepared by ADC, implementation of whichi could begin by 1973/74.

5.146 Whether these measures would be adequate to build up an efficient seed supply system for rice, would be ascertained during the appraisal and subsequent developments of the seed project.

Seed supply for crops other than rice

5.147 The need to introduce improved varieties for crops other than rice is also essential to meet the target set. Much research will be - 65 - neededU, but Lor a nuLIer oil crops gool enougl varieties already exist so that thieir effective introduction would make a material contribution to prouuctiLon.

,.148j 0 S~~pecii±ca'pcfcly y, there~LLCLIL ~L is-ini,.L,ediate 1ULUd needie to06U st LLiLIIZLI r engLthe LLICth upl'.AP P.Ly of Mexican and Mexi-Pak wheat seed varieties which are considered suitable lor the Er.at Pakistan conditions.

5.149 The shortage of improved seeds for the intensive Jute CuLti-VIt0L1 program was revealed by the launching of the program highlighting the urgent need to increase jute seed supply.

5.150 These crops would be a part of the project for building up of the ADC's seed supply capacity. Whether the measures under the project are adequate remains to be ascertained at the time of appraisal.

5.151 For other crops the seed supply efforts would have to be accompanied by the identification of good varieties and adaption trials as well as research. The crops in this category are oil seeds, pulses, tobacco, and sugar cane and tea.

Components of the Inputs Package Other Than Seed

5.152 The inputs package's components other than seed would have to follow the geographic distribution pattern of the aman IRRI seed to the non-flooded areas. Those parts of the respective areas that have an irrigation water supply are likely to develop also into tihe most intensive dry season production areas. The next most intensive inputs use areas would be the areas irrigated during the dry season, even if unimproved pract:Lces would have to be followed during the rainy season because of difficult hydrologic: conditions. Hiowever, the irrigated rice and rabi crop production would not be the entire determinant of the geographic distribution of Inputs. Some inputs would go to areas growing crops such as sugarcane, tea and tobacco which may not necessarily be irrigated. Increased fertilizer and pest control usage is envisaged also on jute. In any case, building up the inputs supply services now requires a clear regional focus reflectLng a transition from a self-sufficient traditional agriculture towards a modern agriculture utilizing commercial inputs.

Fertilizer Program

5.153 The initial Fourth Five-Year Plan projected the fertilizer consumption to irncrease from about 365,000 tons in 1969/70 to about 1 million tons in 1974/75. The Development Plan expenditures on fertilizers would increase correspondingly from about PRs 370 million to PRs 1,000 million under the Fourth Plan. Most of the expenditures shown in the Plan would be subsidies to lower the fertilizer prices to farmers although some monies have been allocated to build up the storage system and the distribution facilitieas. - 66 -

The allocation to build up the storage and the distribution facilities is likely to pro-ve inadequate for reasons indLcated below. Lately, the total fertilizer target iias been revised upwards by the ADC to 1,250,000 tons. The breakdown of' thLe project'Lon fUor thile fiLLrstL Ltihree years ofLJJthe Fourth Five-Year period are as follows: 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 '000 Million '000 Million '000 Million tons _Rs tons _ Rs tons Rs Urea Local 190 131 340 232 391 242 Imported 135 94 22 15 1 Total 325 225 362 247 405 251

TSP Local 24 16 30 20 90 60 Imported 110 77 127 87 110 75 Total 134 93 157 107 200 135

Muriate of Potash Local ------Imported 8 5 65 36 105 57 Total 8 5 65 36 105 57

Ammonia Sulphate TLocl 12 6 12 6 12 6 Imported 3 _ 1 3 1 6 3 Total 15 7 15 7 18 9

Total Fertilizer 482 330 599 397 728 452 Total Cost of Imported Fertilizers 1 177 139 144

(Million US$) (36) (36) (28) (29)

Total requirements for 1973/74 and 1974/75 are provisionally projected at 965,000 tons and 1,250,000 tons respectively. Procurement procedures for fertilizer have to begin 18 months ahead of distribution to the farmer.

5.154 The technical basis of the projections made for fertilizer use on rice appears reasonable. However, it is not certain that the farmers can afford to buy fertilizer. The Planning authorities have concluded that about half of the value of the sales shown in the development plan (i.e. Rs 440 million) would have to be financed on annual production credit to farmprqs This. in turn, places a heavy responsibility on the credit - 67 -

organization. Largely in response to this credit need, the Government has undertaken to strengthen the agricultural credit system. All things considered, the projections provide a satisfactory basis for planning the necessary accompanying measures.

5.155 The emerging new regional intensification pattern requires corresponding adjustments in the fertilizer distribution system. No more than a start has been made with planning and building up the fertilizer distribution system for the emerging areas of potential intensified agricultural production. The first step should be to work out the approximate local demand projections utilizing the existing land capabilitv and irrigation water supply information and other relevant data. Subsequently, the plans would nave to be drawn up and implemented for transDortation, storage and material handling facilities; setting up an efficient stock records system; and for building up the required ADC Dersonnel as well as the local dealership network.

5.156 As a first step towards improving the distribution system, ADC is presently preparing a proiect to increase storage rapnaitv hy 1974!7S tn an estimated 500,000 tons; at present the capacity is 138,000 tons. New storage is reauired mainlv at the Thana level. In addition, a provision would also be needed for handling equipment and for strengthening the management of the fertflizer program. The proneit is expected to be ready for appraisal in the second half of 1970. ADC estimates the cost at IJSS2t millionof whirh Iif millinn wunild hbe in fnreI4 exchange The adequacy and geographic pattern of the project are not clear.

5.157 The importance of strengthening the fertilizer distribution system is however, ahbundantly clear from its central position in the rice and other production programs. Thus, the project warrants strong and appropriate support IJY the aid donors. Since shortage O 1f ties occurs already in the current distribution pattern and the strengthening of the mana-ement would be required,-dealing aW4t the current shortage could 6 ~ ~ ~ XLL6 LL ~U L .LLc-LL.LLO6 LUU± be the first phase of the project. During that period, the second phase would be worked nut reflecting fully the new area intensification pattern of agriculture. This would avoid the delays and assure the start of nrnnper nlninino t-n hbuild iun the fer-t-i1i -ystemto ccrrespond to the needs of the changing situation.

5.158 The use of local natural gas for fertilizer production at Fenchu- cynni nnd nv-n,horshl ic an oarlxy stage 4n the exploitati4on of this resource. which will be of great importance. A large petro-chemical complex is …rocontluchch would include a urea planat on thlt e same scale as Gorashal (340,000 tons). A preiavestment study mission from 4 t-h R:nlt (Z-rniii 4a 1LI, l,, f,s -p- -y. t-ka1 1 i- --., the Rank Group -- -i-l -- latrL .IsI year.. LLUWCvCr, whether part of the complex or not, a decision on an additional urea should Ila mnAa _nnn _n tl]-tl - .i- *nA . t A7 ia ( fnn107/. -7 AAt (-. --~~~ . j ~t & S * L .LJ. _S _.O .ILC0 - -- , IvJ'.J'S LS-L111 Y.\.>VVUuI1CR U&N\ what above projected demand of 630,000 tons). A factor whiich will have to be considered before deidi-1ng on the third urea plan is howthe fr_ a.'.'.'A~ U..116C til L L.IILI U U I=. [0J.ILI L J-t JIUW_ LIMt ---Mtit=Ud IVL) compound fertilizer can be met. The Government may wish to give priority to a co,pouindu fertilzer -i place of u-re. - 68 -

5.159 An important investment poiicy issue requires considerationl in this connection. I.ven though the third T.S.P. factory is a private venture financed by the Pakistan Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation, further interest by the private sector may not be forthcoming until subsidies equivalent to those given fertilizer factories in the public sector (up to 55%) are imade available to the private sector. Alternatively, the pricing policies could be rationalized. A recent report written for the Bank questioned the desirability of any further T.S.P. factories. The report concludes that it is more economic to apply the ground rock phlosphate directly to the crops rather than use it as a raw material for T.S.P. The matter warrants full consideration.

5.160 In view of the difficult financial situation of East Pakistan, a question emerges as to whether fertilizer subsidies should be continued and, if so, whether on the same scale as to date. The Bank's East Pakistan Group has discussed the matter over the last twelve montlhs with the East Pakistan Government authorities. A unanimous conclusion from these dis- cussions is that the farmers' purchasing power for fertilizer is extremely limited. Hiowever, the Pakistan Government has recently decided to impose an excise tax on domestic fertilizer manufacturing and impose custom duties on imported fertilizers. Since no quantitative estimates are available as to the likely impact of any increased fertilizer price on demand, the situation should remain under observation. Moreover, it should be noted that the Ghorasal nitrogen factory should contribute towards a reduction in the overall fertilizer subsidy expenditures, since it is expected to produce nitrogen fertilizer without a subsidy at prices charged to farmers prior to the introduction of the excise tax.

Pest Control

5.161 The projected expenditures on pest control make it one of the major items in the Fourth Five-Year Plan. The importance of pest control has grown with the increased use of improved varieties; the IRRI rice varieties available to date have been more susceptible to pests than the local varieties. In fact, the experts state the susceptibility to pests of IR-8 and IR-5 as one of the principal reasons to their limited success during the Third Five-Year Plan.

5.162 Under the Fourth Five-Year Plan the Government intends to increase the area covered to about 35% of the cultivated area in 1975 as against 15% covered in 1969/70. The Plan projects also that the aerial spraying program of the Central Government would comprise 20% of the cultivated acreage as against 5% at the end of the Third Plan. The pest control program will concentrate on rice and iute. The detailed targets by crops are given in Table 5.36.

5.163 The requirement of pesticides for the Fourth Plan period, detailed per crop, are given in Table 5.37. Procurement of pesticides during the period 1970/71 to 1972/73 is estimated as follows: - 69 -

1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 '000 Million '000 Million '000 Million Tons Rs Tons Rs Tons Rs

Conventional Pesticides 13.5 135 13.7 137 15.8 158

Granular Pesticides 3.2 12 5.4 21 7.0 28

Total 16.7 147 19.1 158 22.8 186

Total US$ (millions) 31 33 39

5.164 Due to difficult transportation and communication conditions in East Pakistan, a satisfactory pest control is perhaps impossible if it is not based on the local effort, local stocks and local facilities.

5.165 The Plant Protection Service and the ADC are currently working out projects/programs to improve the pest control performance. Recognizing the absence of good transportation and the need for timeliness in application, ADC is preparing a project to build up pest control equipment at the village level. The purchase of 64,000 hand sprayers and 46,000 power sprayers is contemplated under the scheme in addition to the 25,000 hand sprayers and 10,000 power sprayers already in operation. These sprayers would satisfy the Fourth Plan requirements. The project would also include the provision of storage facilities at the Chittagong and Khulna ports and at the district and Thana levels. All the power sprayers would have to be imported. A limited local manufacturing capacity for hand sprayers exists. To the extent that local manufacturers can meet the specifications and be competitive, local sprayers could be purchased. The project would be ready for appraisal during the second half of 1970. ADC estimates the project cost tentatively at about US$9 million, of which US$4 million would be in foreign exchange.

5.166 Simultaneously, the plant protection service which would be the ultimate user of the above equipment is preparing an interrelated scheme to strengthen its organization and facilities since both are inadequate to meet the increased targets. This scheme comprises the expansion of tlhe personnel from about 2,300 to about 3,600. the procurement of an arrav of vehicles and boats for the movement of both pesticides and personnel, anid the provision of repair facilities for the equipment. This scheme also includes reinforcement of the pesticide research program, a pest reporting and forecasting service, and the introduction of a training program for the staff and for the farmers who are going to use the equipment provided by the Service. Flinalization of this project would reauire the assistance of agricultural consultants with experience at a cost of the order of US$5 milLion, of which US$2 million would be in foreign exchange. -7() -

54.167 S-Ince efficl.ent strengthening of plant- protection is possib only with adequate village level facilities, requisites and organization, external

ia.LoLL.LA. L1 uld- slart w the fir 4 rJL lis would provide S4multaneous- ly experience along the lines of the second project, parts of which may be any essentiLaLl to the 'i rsLt proJect andu mi4.hLt bDe ic-.------in It 4 i n.l ing additional expertise required for working out the program to strengthen the plant protection service.

J .Juo The1daerial spray program ofUt Centra GovernmentLmaj-or has a value in East Pakistan, in that it can deal inore rapidly with outbreaks of major infestat'Loni thilan thLe ground operations. IPl s LhaVe LU)-II prepared to increas the area covered by aerial spraying to 10 million spray acres by 1974/75 as against 1.0 LitillLIo spray acres olf rLce iIn AnAU/U. ipra new devlo ment may prove to be the employment of a private contractor to spray 150,l00 acres in 1I970/7i amaLI s c ason.

5.169 The Central Governmeflt intends to provide 14' more aiLrcrafLt to East Pakistan, and to construct 7 more landing strips and a hangar. Included in the program is a provision to p'Li Lanmiore un iIfOAm LCLpAO patterns, in order to facilitate aerial spraying and a proposal for a scheme to survey outbreaks of disease. The Service estimates the cost of this project, as it relates to East Pakistan, at about US$4 million, of which US$3 million would be in foreign exchange.

5.170 Procurement abroad of the pesticides required for the aerial spraying program in East Pakistan would cost US$3 million annually over the next three years.

5.171 There are at present no pesticide factories in East Pakistan, and it is not expected that the two factories presently under consideration will be producing by 1972/73. All pesticides ihave to be imported and the above amounts, therefore, represent the foreign exchange required for procurement. Two formulatinc, plants are in operation in the Province, importing and mixing basic materials. As of now, they have not been able to compete with the imported cost of the final product. Invitations to invest should be extended to the producers of pelletized pesticides. A Swiss producer has recently expressed an interest.

5.172 Serious consideration must be given to a different type of pesticide and a different system of distribution. Pelletized pesticide has proven highly effective for the IRRI imiiproved varieties and has been recommended by the IRRI rice experts. Pelletized pesticide, in contrast to the spray variety, could be purchased and spread by the farmer in the same way as fertilizer. This leads to the logical recommendation that pelletized pesticide distribution be added to the functions of the ADC and that pesticide be distributed along with fertilizer through the established fertilizer dealers. The pesticides would be bagged in dosages which relate to the fertilizer dosages.

5.173 Pest control is provided free of charge to East Pakistan's farmers. The pest control subsidy is one of the major items in the current and in the - 71 - projected development expenditures of the East Pakistan agricultural program. Lo Udate, this approach Ihas Ueen cons'dU'ered Justiiceu In v'ew ofL the i,luportance of pest control. The introduction of a charge for pest control would require greater efiiciency on the part of bothi the ground and the aerial pest control services. There is no assurance that the farmer is receiving an efficient service. Moreover, many farmers are still unramiliar with the benefits of pest control and introducing a charge might severely limit the acreage covered. All things considered, a decision to introduce a charge for pest control should be preceded by a thorough review of the effectiveness of pest control. It might aiso De investigated as to wnether it wouid De easier to charge a price for pelletized pesticides.

5.174 The allocation and provision of foreign exchange for the procurement of pesticides abroad by the Center (none are produced locally) has been an usual reason for frequently delayed deliveries hampering timely application. The variety of suppliers tied under different toreign assistance progrzms has increased the problems of securing the correct total range of pesticides. The Directorate of Agriculture hias proposed the build-up cif a stock of pesticides equivalent to six months demand over the Plan pericid to alleviate the recurrent difficulties over procurement. Two 1,000 ton storage capacity godowns at Chittagong and two 5,000 ton godoiwns at Khulna are included in the proposed plan.

5.175 The numerous difficulties that face any plant protection service in East Pakistan, whether operated on the ground or from the air, suggest that an overall survey of plant protection should be undertaken. Research into the harmful effects to fish and other livestock must be undertaken soon. Cost-benefit analyses of different forms of operation over irrigated or flooded areas and by individual and total unit crop size should be included in the survey. An overall survey would complement the program for strengthening the Plant Protection Service of East Pakistan, coordinate the two services, and help direct research efforts.

Current Prospects for Food Crops Other than Cereals

5.176 For other food crops such as pulses and oilseeds, the suitable areas need yet to be determined, the inputs package formulated and promotion programs started, preceded by proper investigations and accompanied by strengthened research. In short, the implications of the newly emerged agricultural resources data - especially of land capability data but al,o of currently crystalizing data regarding tubewell and low-lift pump irrigation potential - have not been worked out concerning future crop production prospects, except for rice and perhaps also for wheat. Yet available data strongly suggests that prospects are good also for a number of other crops. The utilization of these potentials requires the same steps which have been successfully taken in the case of rice, i.e., adaptation experiments and research to generate good varieties, formulating the respective inputs packages including the necessary services, and orienting the application of inputs packages geographically to the most promising areas identified. The infrastructure, such as transportation and storage and processing facilities, would require regional emphasis to coincide with the areas of high agricultural potential. - 72

Export, Industrial and Cash Crops

5.177 Jute. In the future the areas available for jute cultivation may be limited to those where floodin:; exceeds one to two Feet, an(I thus where IRRI varieties cannot be growii. Li these areas the future of jute depends eventually on whether it would he able to compete on the export markets against substitutes. ThIe determination of land-capability - flood-degree zones to orient production prograims of IRRI rice and jute accordingly will be required. [he concentration of jute cultivation in flooded areas would lead to somne declinie in the average quiality of the crop, since the jute variety of those areas (c. capsularis) has a somewhat lower qualitY than that of non-flooded areas (c. olitorius).

5.178 Jute cultivation practices can be improved substantially, however, and an improvement of 50% in yield over the present average under ordinary farming conditions seems feasible. Improved practices and hiigher yields should have some effect towards improving the competitive position of jute.

5.179 The government authorities have grown increasingly concerned about the overall in efficiency of the jtute industry, besides being concerned with the farmin.lg aspects. Botlh short-term and long-term policies would requ-ire a thorough review and( subsequent revisions. In the slhort term, modification of the pricing policies could have a materially favorable imDact on thie jute industry. In the long term, a tlhorough overhaul of the policies and technical aspects would be required, from farming to manufacturing and exports, as well as streamlining of the organizational structure of the jute industry. The Government has taken the first steps along the above lines. A review of the jute industry has been undertaken, an intensive jute cultivation scheme has been initiated during the financial year 1969-70, and the East Pakistan Government has proposed an ambitious scheme under the Fourth Five Year Plan to improve the efficiency of iute cultivation.

5.180 A Government-apoointed conmiittee reviewing the performance of the jute industry has been in session for some time. In these dis- cussions a view has emerged from part of the Provincial Government that in order to improve incentives to farmers to grow more jute, it is going to hp neresary to Drovide subsidies to lower the inputs prices for iute cultivation such as seed and fertilizer prices. Hiowever, this proposal has not rereived an official annroval yet. Moreover, an earlier special study group on jute recommended that a bonus exchange rate shiould also be :nnlp 4 -1 to.-ii,tp exnnrtc. 'Phi .c rtrnmmPndiqi nn h4 noit hm,n qnnrnupti oi ther_ Both proposals, however, reflect the concensus of opinion that incentives t- -JUt- -w ing f2rm.erc tPniUt bNo i mproiveid in orde-r to inrrqcra -eilitu j ". ..------cultivation, especially by using improved practices.

5.181 Also, the experts are unanimously of the opinion that export prices of jute should be reduced in order to strengthe- its competitive position against substitutes. Hlowever, the way of implementing this is stl.l1 disputed. - 73 -

5.182 The study group has apparently not undertaken a serious examination of the practices and measures which might be taken to reduce the fluctuation of export volumes and export prices of raw jute, which would also be important to strengthen jute's competitive position on export markets, especially in the U.S.A. This is a major oversight in the current review of the jute industry.

5.183 The organizational aspects of the jute industry are included in the work of the study group. Upon the request of the East Pakistan Government, the study group has reviewed the possibility of bringing all policy matters and their implementation with the exception of production aspects, under the authority of one government body and locating this government body in East Pakistan. Discussion has centered around establishing a Jute Ministry under the Central Government, but this has not been agreed upon to date. This approach would eliminate much of the divided responsibility prevailing now and would undoubtedly greatly facilitate improving the efficiency of various institutions related to the jute industry.

5.184 Also jute marketing would be improved as a part of the organizational changes. lHowever, the details of these improvements have not been worked out. The only concrete proposals to this effect to date have been to expand the purchases of jute by the Jute Board through its various operating arrangements and to make Jute marketing one of the main responsi- bilities of the proposed Warehouse Corporation. However, the feasibility of the latter proposal is seriously open to question.

5.185 At the farming level, a program for intensifying jute cultivation in East Pakistan was initiated in crop year 1969/70. The Plan provides for a package of improved inputs for specified areas. In the first instance, in 1969/70, the intensified jute cultivation scheme has covered 400,000 acres of jute. Out of this, a complete package of improved inputs including improved seeds, fertilizers, plan production measures, production loan and extension advice has been provided for 100,000 acres. On the remaining 300,000 acres, the farmers would use their own seeds but would receive the other inputs of the package referred to.

5.186 The total cost of the scheme for 1969/70 was estimated at Rs. 2.5 million. The allocation to finance this and to provide the other necessary inputs were provided for in the annual development plan of the Agriculture Department.

5.187 A similar approach to intensify jute cultivation would be continued under the Fourth Five-Year Plan. The target is to increase the Jute production from about 7 million bales to 9 million bales by the end of the Plan period, in 1974/75. This would be attained by increasing yields which are expected to rise from the present average of 3 bales per acre to about 4.5 bales per acre in 1974/75. - 74 -

5.188 A special extension wing for jute has been established in the Agriculture Department which will be responsible for advisory work, as well as for making the necessary inputs available and giving assistance to farmers to obtain the necessary production credits. This nackace annroach covered 400,000 acres in 1969/70 and is intended to cover some 1.2 million acres in 1971/72. About 80 percent of the total iute area would be eovered by the package approach in 1974/75.

5.189 The components of the Five-Year Plan for jute have not been worked out in detail; however. Consequentlv. no detailedl cost estimat-e is available as yet.

5.190 The approach is commendable, broadly speaking, and should be nursited energetically H^owever; a nre-condition to make farmers c-epnt the intensified jute cultivation program would be to improve price incentives to them.

S 191 Finallyv siinrc the decline in exnort prices of raw jute and jute manufactures is considered likely in the next year or two, Pakistan may nrice these aonds out of the mnrket with serifouts ronsenuenres t-n her export earnings, unless she reduces the export prices of the goods concerned in a timely manner. This would mean aeprnting a decline in export earn.ings in the short run in order to maintain the jute goods export market and earnings ;n Fo1nth run An ; ntntre ot-A r;v iT.T fwf the J,. ; -toA a - . choulA be i.. - -- -*--- -1 -- - v &- initiated, covering all aspects from farming and price incentives to market i n g, p rocess g A e-- orsfa wl1Pt ot1 re-1-ate -oic4i4-

C5.192 Sugar Cane. Both short and lon te.,. is4-io reule- to U .7 ~~~ L41J LI~I 01t5 lt. --t& Lt L ati..4.71 4.0 t.l~U A.~ i_W1. 6 improve the efficiency of the sugar industry. Botlh involve policy decisions. ThL'e short run action woul iA nvolve modACificatior,s of the price policies so LLL~ LUA~IULL SLLLLII WL'.Lti U15Li LU 117 t.JLI0 IJL1 LIC .LL L IUL .L 0 as to improve the sugar industry's position from the farm level to processing. Th loe rLong LL Lon would re4uLre policies andU subUsequent program,s tLo inIaLralke fundamental changes in the structure of the sugar industry and in its operating practiLces. 'No such action progra,l t has beenU LoL,iu'LatedU as yet. TLihe .ilaj'or features of a possible program are highlighted below as they emerge logically LUroUI deveClopI uents to dUate, a7nUd fLrom thLe potentials andU constraints or, thLe sugar industry.

5.193 Modified price and tax policies would enable the sugar mills to maintain a higher and more stable pattern of production and improve their efficiency with potential favorable implications also at the farm level. They would also set L[ie stage for renewed investment by the private sector, which in the case of the sugar industry should be a major goal of government policy.

5.194 The experience of the 1968-69 season demonstrated that fixed sugar and sugarcane prices prevent the industry from adjusting to a fluctuating, uncontrolled gur market. As a result, when gur prices rose, mills were unable to procure cane, and so sugar production fell drastically. - 75 -

Thius, in practice, the sugar industry has been prevente.i 'rori-, m,aintain-Ing 1ILL iLL 9L Li L, ILe J.LIUL Li'ld U~L pkvii i LLI -L IL iLiL.1Q a stable volume of operations by keeping prices flexible in line with gur priLces. Instead, prices Lhave been 'lNept steady, and -V ,e has fluctuated.

5Moreover, the prevailing pracLice of taxing the sugar rnills on a capacity basis is inconsistent with the policy just described. Last year, Lor example, the burden of tlle capacity tax increased on a smaler volume of operations, and further reduced the mills' financial scope to procure cane. it is obvious that no more private industrialists will venture into the sugar industry under these policies. Government controls both selling and purchasing prices, and also imposes tax in a way which forces production even at a loss.

5.196 A satisfactory solution at the Provincial level would not be to impose controls over gur making. Last year cultivators had obvious economic reasons for not bringing their cane to the mills, and an improved price policy would be a far superior remedy than controls which seem unworkable.

5=197 As thp first tepn in the right direction the Government raised sugarcane prices for the 1969/70 season. The deliveries of cane to the mi lls increed sustntill and,l crncsiqnt-liy, also t-he product-ion.

5.198 The more fundamental modification of the industry price-ugnr and tax policies remains yet to be undertaken, however, to meet the requirements of the situa-tion described above.

5.199 Regarding long-term policies, several consulting teams have

O A.L~A.A L*V p .ta JA.US 0t UIA L J.UtL1 . * i. L. LLUUtLU U= JOCU. according to experts, to attain substantial immprovements of efficiency. Put it~ sho-1d not le overlooked that the 'as- Pa'-itan clir,ate anid sr.ial .,t L ~t L0LtJU.iU LL . UvL VL L.L JtU LILaL- " L:, I L I rNLU W ±IiL IU~U.iL~ farm size are not ideally suited to sugar cane growing due to the long

nnJO AdO, nnanO Oa An- A 9 . \

5.200 To 4ncrease the *O4productivity of -- s i

-J .a,Js, *t. *flSLCO I jJ%tt.tL -"tL- yL Wii ~LLI otUA L LLJUU.7 L L.)' U OV~.LY, 5 a thorough vertical overhaul of the industry would be required along the 1lines indl-cated below: L..LI ~ LUJ.L~LU ULJ

(a) I'Relocating thLe sugar mills whilWch are now in unsuiLtable locations and establishing new mills only in areas well suited for sugar production. - 76 -

(b) Establishing a sugar zone around each mill, in which an intensive production program would be mounted, by building up the infrastructure and inputs programs with supporting services. It has been estimated that with the fragmented small landholding system and thie need for crop diversification, a zone should probably hiave a radius of 7 to 10 miles to guarantee sufficient supply to the present size plants wnile making some future expansion possible.

(c) Assisting farmers to acquire adequate irrigation facilities such as tubewells and low-lift pumps and providing adequate drainage.

(d) Establishing a transport network in each sugar zone to facilitate fast transport of cane to the mill. In most cases such a network would probably consist of small roads.

(e) Making improved planting material available to be distributed in each zone. Multiplication of imported material should be taken up immediately. But, according to trials by the Atomic Energy Center in Dacca. a number of local strains can perform quite well if properly fertilized and managed.

(f) Making a complete inputs package, especially fertilizers and pesticides, available in the zones on credit against future deliveries.

(g) Providine an intensive extension coverage in the zones.

(h) Tniitiating a practice of naving for sugarsane on the hbqasq of sugar content.

(i) Making, perhaps, sugar research the responsibility of the EPI!DC. This would require transferri ng the existing sugar research station and facilities to the EPIDC.

5.201 It would appear logical to place responsibility for the program with the directly interested organization, i.e., EPIDC ,s PID owns 9 out of an existing 13 sugar mills. It has invested about Rs. 300 million

5 nI Leml and s 11 er1JAg to mAke --.. 4fL -fV 22-. L_ A ±r.- Vi V . v Lav u4 1*2. ..411 could easily be associated with the program. As EPIDC is presently not equipped for theask,it woua4. to .y a n,.ber- of agronoms.ust and would have to be provided with appropriate Technical Assistance. - 77 -

5.202 To recapituLate, tLhough'I thle bUroadu ouLlines of a potenl-4r1 are reasonably clear, a detailed program has not been made to date. In the Fourth Five-Year Plan, proposed to improve sugar research and to initiate a modest cultivation program. These are only partial solutions. The more comprehensive program which is required 'nas not beenI prered. MI i-i tegrated investigation of the sugar industry from farming to processing is required.

5.203 Tea. Consumption in Pakistan during i969 exceeded domestic production by 10 million pounds. This potential for import substitution has prompted preparation work on a project which aims to modernize and expand East Pakistan's tea industry. Development of this industry has stagnated, mainly due to policies which were not conducive to new invest-- ments, but which are now in the process of being changed.

5.204 A first project would provide tea machinery and sprinkler irrigation equipment for about 100 estate factories, and a gas pipeline to bring natural gas to 13 tea factories in order to replace imported coal as a source of fuel. A feasibility study has been prepared by the Tea Board in conjunction with the Agricultural Development Bank. A World Bank mission appraised the project in May 1970. The project would cost about US$8 million including about US$4.8 million in foreign exchange.

5.205 Tobacco. The local consumption of tobacco is increasing annually and some 7 million lbs. were exported in 1968-69, worth nearly 16 million Rupees. Experts now consider it extremely doubtful if during the Fourth Plan period local production could meet the local demand (see Table 5.3,4). A reversal of this unfavorable prospect should be possible with the introduction of irrigation and improved practices. The general modernizatic,n of tobacco production would be warranted since production conditions, except for fluctuations in rainfall, are favorable to tobacco production in selected parts of East Pakistan. Again, these efforts should start with an integrated review of the tobacco industry covering all aspects from farming to marketing and processing, including the respective policies.

5.206 Other Cash and Industrial Crops. There are Lhelieved to be possibilities to produce a number of other crops with reasonable efficiency, such as coconuts in southern parts of the Province and rubber in Chittagong Hill tracts. A followup of these as well as of many other crop development prospects highlighted in this chapter should start with a reconnaissance made by experts with thorough experience in the agricultural and economic aspects of the respective crops. - 78 -

Integrated Marketing and Crop Production Programs for Crops Other than Rice

5.207 The most profound improvements in marketing could be expected itn-t.n4ti f,m the intr- annA irntrro re inn1 t roncnn .f tn 4 mr.^on -o if properly focussed on development areas. Once carried out, such im.,provements would generate private initiative for. ti.,mtint rather than having to rely on public initiative. Thus, the rural works road program a.dU other transport"ation. progr"a..1 have ston- - giutr-- - nd- ~LL1~LU L*~ ~UI ai&u A. LQL JU~* j&L~V~ LL4JLL9J O[6L.%L.4&L C U marketing reasons in their favour.

5.208 Specific commodity/development area oriented marketing programs would be required also. In the case of Jute there is an urgent need to improve the efficiency of marketing so as to provide adequate incentives to farmers. The Government has undertaken to review the situation. The authorities concerned propose to expand and improve Government purchasing programs so as to assure better incentives to farmers. The jute situation is also being studied under the leadership of FAO, which also participates in establishing indicative export prices. However, in view of the urgent need to improve lute's competitive position on international markets it appears advisable for Pakistan to proceed initially on its own with efforts to stabilize its jute exports and respective export prices. Since both the Central Government and the Government of East Pakistan have grown increasingly concerned about the future prospects of Jute, there should be a favourable environment to deal with these matters in a timely manner. This is vital since it is very difficult to recover any share of the lute market once lost to substitutes.

5.209 The orograms for crops such as oilseeds. pulses and tobacco would have to incorporate both the marketing and production aspects with a clear reeional focus on producing areas. Also process:lng facilities would have to be provided, especially for oilseeds.

5.210 Sugarcane marketing and processing would also have to be ap- nrnarhed along the lines indicated in the preceding paragraph, but the nlanning would have to be much more intensive than for the above crops.

5.211 Except for jute, the marketing improvement policies would have to be nrarcead yhinnplicyv derisionn tn selePt intpnsifiePd develnnopnt areas and to formulate appropriate development programs for them. To date such Mn approach has been anpiead nnlyv to ri rp as de fi ned in vari OnU8 nnrts of this report, and to tea, but it has yet to be initiated for other crops. - 79 -

5.212 Ihe GjovernmIentLs growing concern witn marketing proobemu lb reflected in the proposed establishment of a Government Warehouse Corporation. Tne farmers would store tne proaucts in tnese warehouses for a specified fee. There is virtually no storage possibility on the farmsteads without suDjecting tne produce to the risk or severe iosses. The scheme is intended to improve the marketing of nonperishable products (not requiring processing) such as jute, but implementation is likely to be difficult.

5.213 Efforts would also be continued to expand and improve the operations of the cold storage system, one of the key elements in the recent expansion of potato production.

5.214 Marketing of Inputs. The Fourth Five-Year Plan projects would greatly increase the use of the various commercial inputs ranging from the improved seeds to fertilizers and fuel for pump engines. The key marketing agency is ADC at the wholesale level. Successful marketing of these inputs depends very much on ADC's performance capacity.

5.215 Substantial expenditures will be required to build up the local facilities and personnel and to set up the necessary operating procedures, ranging from record keeping to materials handling. To date very little: planning has been done to this effect and only partial cost estimates are available although these measures should have a very high priority.

5.216 Much of the performance of the local dealers in fertilizer and other inputs depends on whether ADC will be able to make these inputs available expeditiously. A substantial amount of effort will be required to overcome the problems during the current transitional phase.

Fisheries

5.217 Fish holds a unique position in the economy of East Pakistan. It forms the second staple diet of the people and accounts for 80% of ithe per capita intake of animal protein. Moreover a large segment of the people of the Province depends directly or indirectly on fish and fisheries for its likelihood. The crucial role of fish and fishing is the natural consequence of the existence of large bodies of inland water (fresh water) plus the Bay of Bengal.

5.218 A study conducted in 1962 found that the daily per capita consumption of fish was 33 grams or less than 10 lbs per-year-per-capita, fiaure which largelv accounts for the fact that in East Pakistan the average - 80 - animal protein diet is amongst the lowest in the world. In 1964 some 90% of the fish catch c-om.e from the inland waters, 720,000 tons, and 1OZ from. the Bay of Bengal, 80,000 tons. Since 1964 there has been little increase iL tnh t,&tLal ft.a.. is ca..a-ah1 cAhDuring.L the Third Plan the prograx,-iue for fisheries was pursued vigoously but its impact was offset by unfavourable developments elsewhere.*Many large water areas were dralned f Coastal and flood control embankments have upset the culture of important prawr. ar.d fish speci-es. Pesti cid es ar,d IndAustrial affluent have 'ecou-e a prawn~~~~~~~iIU~~~~~~~~~~~ L.LuLL a.*~~~~~ ~~~ LL ±G~~~~~~~~A ~~LLLL ~~~~~U~~~IL L LL~~~~~~~~V~~u~~~~cOfl aL threat to fish. A shortage of fish has caused many areas to be over-fished. _i a.. res.L_.e 5.L tLl e toaL A. L catchL t.LN A -ILi 104L.,' VwI J IityUmay' LILAWUI7nomore LLIILLL_tha1n .LU nn,VJI" LULLZ Up on 1964, or represent a likely diminution in the per capita consumption of

I.LS5IL in'la ri Fisheries

5.219 Effort should initially be centered around exploring possibilities to strengthen the management of the inland fish resources along the lines of modern fishery management. This would involve measures to maintain and, if possible, to increase the catch: i.e. the supply of spawn and finger- lings to stock the waters, the maintenance of fish feed supply for the waters, perhaps some control of the catch, and the introduction of marketing facilities as the need for them is established. Knowledge regarding fisheries needs to be built up.

5.220 The inadequate research facilities at Chandpur must be put on a basis compatible with the enormous research effort needed to explore the potential of the inland waters and to defend and propagate them. Under the Fourth Plan several research schemes have been proposed and deserve ftill upnnort. At present. lack of knowledge does not Dermit a ranking of investment opportunities or even of their clear identification. Support fnr rqPeRrrh iS innluded as an area to be covered by a sDecial study.

5.221 Becaunsi nf the larog acrpagp of inland waters and t-hp large annual fish yield, the inland fisheries deserve high priority although at preser.t the sea fisheries' nffer morp i Tmmedinte dsuelApment nns4hibi ties.-a

Marine Fisheries

5.222 Knowledge about the marine side is more complete; fishing on the

Bay of'A Bengr.g1 is being studied by ar. FA tem ar.d there are 4nr.ications that useful investments could be directed towards the procurement and oper- fleet ar.d t1-he modAe.,.iza-ior, of sruall fishir.g boats. ation. of a aLLsrual'l LI LI. Lt'rawwler 0~L0J.JO JcA. .Lc i a&'. t,, ,It,.LLA.` & L.L.JL Ai. OLUO.L.L. L u Aa.a Although marine fish production at present accounts for no more than about

1.5 Of. l' thLe totaLL ar.nuaL tefishL catch, the iLLuiuuLnent coLuWj±Let'Lon ofI a ne-w L.LSLIJLng wharf at Chittagong will facilitate the growth of deep sea fishing operations. oUIe adUdLt';ional irvestigations are required tL learn more - - 81 - the fish potential in the Bay of Bengal, which will continue to be studied by FAQ for another 2 years, to determine requirements of skilled manpower and to look into the institutional, marketing and revenue aspects of fish production. Subject to the feasibility study, already started by the Fishery Development Corporation, being favourable, a project consisting of the provision of some twelve trawlers, about 1,000 engines for small fishing boats (in addition to the 300 now operating successfully), and shore provisions for storage and freezing could be undertaken. Strength- ening of the organizational setup and of the marketing system, and the introduction of a training program for fishermen should be included. 'Ihe study would require the assistance of an estimated 6 man months of fishery consultants. Total project cost would be of the order of US$20 million, of which US$12 million would be in foreign exchange.

Livestock

5.223 The predominant constraint to developments based on the existing large livestock population (some 20 million heads of cattle. 0.5 million buffaloes, 5 million goats, and roughly 20 million chickens and 5 million ducks) is the scarcity of land and the consequent shortage of feed. There is no easy and quick solution to the feed problem. However, some experts believe that even measures of relatively modest scope and cost. such as certain limited disease control efforts for livestock would have a material beneficial effect. Such efforts could generate momentum Lor followup developments to the extent that these initial efforts identify further potentials. Thus. while crons iustifiablv have the ton nriority; livestock also warrants attention.

5.224 The formulation of a sound livestock policy is of immediate imnortanne, hut- Ti 11 rqulre considerably reseavnh and study in both ehe animal husbandry and the farm economic aspects. The role of cattle in the economic and in the social value patternB of the npnnlop shntod be studied jointly. Without such a broad approach the major items and traction the nrnduction of hbef and milk, rannot he tackled effectivelyo The possibility of achieving self-sufficiency in rice plus the expansion of wheat and the more valuable additive food crops raises the possibility of lower grain prices. Should grain prices fall, well orientated live- stork re*ac,Q h, etena4sin and mrleainq o^uld have a dram.atic Imopact towards diversification and improved diets.

Agrr!cult,--a! Credit

5.225 No consolidated estimate of the total funds required to support credit operations exists. ThLe Plaa.-.r.ing authoritiesUhave Ltentatively esti= mated that about a half of the fertilizer sales to farmers would be on annual prod;uction crelditLL iterms. pThis credit requirement would amUount: to about Rs 200 million a year in 1974/75. If half of the low lift pumps and tube- we. ortion cos we _F4realvsoA_ 1 0 {4nae on crdt Ai wol AreqAu 4 ee Rs _..4_An 90 million a year. Thus, the total credit requirement for these two purposes would be rough1v Rs l300mlllon. a year. AAd..itional credt woul be needed for various other farming purposes. This compares with the total volumle ofL Rs 22 milon fro.., -instiutional sources in 1969/70. LLJLa. VLILULICU ~ ~ ILJ~L.A.LL A.LJL LAL.1LLL. LaJ. 5UU~. I L 7V7O f IV.) The projected increase in volume of lending should be possible if sys- temLaticaL.Ly i[1iplemiented.TLThe '1970 U estLimiate Jfor required ruras creuit in East Pakistan by the State Bank is from PRs. 2,500 to 3,000 million (over -&nC.Cfl s.11J. ~ .~ 1.l-s ~ 1 -r.1~. - - US$500 miL OliJ. It ls estLmateL thiat oUnly 1'4 perfent Will De extended through formal institutions, meaning that 86 percent of the current credit requirement in East P-aL1akistan is potentially, but not necessarily, usurious. Tables 5.29-5.30. Interest rates range from 50 percent to 240 percent.

5.226 No estimates are available as to how the increase would be shared between the existing lending institutions and the proposed Comilla type cooperative system as it expands over the Province.

5.227 Within this environment an effective system of both lending and collecting must be a highlv uecentralized one in wnich iocai pressures play a large part in governing performance -- both of the borrower and the lending institution. Three basic approaches are suggested:

(a) build upon the rural infrastructure (see Chapter VIl) and thie knowledge gained from the Comilla experiment;

(b) provide an incentive to the commercial banking system to provide rural credit;

(c) extend credit to the distributors of inputs -- fertilizer, fractional pumps, improved seed, etc. -- to permit the distributors in turn to extend credit to the cultivators on non-usurious terms.

5.228 The positive exploitation of the commercial banking network and the agricultural input distribution svstem should be studied. The province-wide expansion of a project for rural credit, building on the organizational capacitv of the rural works program, integrating the 18,000 already functioning groups of the Thana Irrigation Program, and employing the relevant portion of the Comilla experience has already been accepted by the Government.

5.229 The adoption of the Comilla model for the Province is desirable, but further preparations are needed for its implementation. For example, the credit requirements under the scheme were estimated at Rs 100 per acre. This may be a correct estimate for areas where commercial inputs can be used, but may be an overestimate for traditional farming areas. The adequacy of the training provision for both the cooperative staff and - 83 - the leading cooperative committee members is not clear, although this is likely to be a crucial element to success. Another crucial element is the tactical use that will be made of various nuclei of economic improvement to launch and sustain the new cooperatives, and a third is the employment of competent staff. Continued and consistent political, administrative and financial support to the program and to PARD must be forthcoming. A similar commitment may well be required to ensure that the whole credit operation does not suffer from a lack of funds durinR the Plan Period. These aspects seem to require additional elaboration by the authorities concerned. However, the start of the program does not have to await for the decisions on these matters. The policy decisions can be made and the preparations firmed up while the initial phase (1st year program) is being carried out.

5.230 The Government of East Pakistan has made a number of far reaching decisions in the period prior to the final formulation of the Fourth Plan which denmonstrate its annreriation of the role credit must play In moclern- izing agriculture. Nonetheless, there remain several important policy decisions to he tackled whirh concern the immediate neriod hefore the Province-wide establishment of cooperatives is completed under the Int:e- arated Rtiral Develnnment Proornm- Exneditlouis anrd forthricght dPric iionT making regarding the reorganization of the existing cooperative struct:ure will help institu,te not only the ecnom4ic developmental use of credit, but also advance the introduction of the new inputs.

5.231 ADB has undertaken to streamline its medium term agricultural credit operations so as to se-,e more expeditiously fa.mers as wellas agricultural enterprises. Weaknesses, which will otherwise increasingly hinder the full development of the agricultural sector, can and must be rectified. The larger farms should offer substantial possibilities for develop,.ents bDaseA on private initiat i ve anA soun Aip uts program,.s (see para 5.54).

A.cultural Desearch-

5.232 The now superseded tentative Plan projects a five-fold increase Lor agricultural research (,PRIxs 1L5 millimonI over thLe lI.k.el-v Third Plan expenditure. However, the research programs included in the tentative Fourth Plan did not adequately reflect the ,eeds oF the merging new situation as shown.above. Plans need to be formalized urgently.

5.233 An effective agricultural research program would yield three important benefits. Research fuels the Extension Service and lends iL much of its standing and most of its effectiveness. Research, through auequate extension, raises the returns to farmers on the use of new inputs and practices so that their utilization and renayment of credit becomes one of the major forcing-houses of development. Research - 84 -

agaiLn thiroughi extens;), briLdUges the gap betLween self-suf L iciLency in staples and diversi4 1catlon and consequent commercialization of agriLcu'Lture. RiesearchlL, eAxtension, Lredit anLdi vers'L 'L Ca L.OlO provide the only sure basis for the attainment of self-sustained development in the agricultural sector.

5.234 'While maniy parts of an overall research program can be strengthened or initiated in the next year, and are suitable for foreign assistance, the early emergence and expedient implementation of a research strategy is vital. Initially farm economic research to ascertain the farmers' economic Position and to wnat extent they can pay the cost of inputs and the project expenditures is required.

Soil and Land Capability Investigations

5.235 Extremely useful worlc has been conducted by a UNDP/FAO soil and land capability survev which bezan in 1961 and covered 30,500 square miles. Another 13,500 square miles have been covered by various small surveys. This leaves 11,000 square miles of the Province still to be covered. This area should be covered and a more intensive survey of the areas currently using low-lift pumps on an Intensive scale (i.e. Mymensingh, Sylhet, Dacca, Comilla and Chittagong districts) carried out. UNDP/FAO survey operations terminated in December 1969 and interpretation work is due to expire in December 1970.

5.236 Foreign assistance to the existing organization to facilitate completion of this program to survey the remaining 11,000 square miles appears desirable, to generate prerequisite data for regional olanning having the following objectives:

(i) to provide technical direction and supervision;

(ii) to provide technical support and additional intensive training to recently recruited staff;

(iii) to provide foreign exchange to replace field vehicles provided under the existing scheme in 1961 and now nearing the end of their useful life; and

(iv) to develop work on soil moisture studies recentlv commenced by an Associate Expert and likely to cease with the expirv of his assignment in August 1970, work which has highly important implications for the extensive irrigation and drainage development being planned in East Pakistan. - 85 -

5.237 In addition, there is need to continue assistance to the interpretation unit recently set up which is mentioned in earlier sections of this Chapter.

Agricultural Extension

5.238 The following section on Agricultural Training draws attention to the magnitude of the all too likely shortage of trained agricultural manpower that can be expected during the Fourth Plan Period. The seriousness of the impact that this potential shortage of staff may have on development can be reduced if the Government adopts the regional strategy mentioned in this report, and concentrates extension efforts primarily in areas which have been identified as having a high short term potential. Yet, there is a danger that such a policy may be undermined, should a shortage of manpower develop, by the diversion of staff to areas into which large sums have been invested in permanent facilities. The argument that large returns on incremental investments in such areas are possible is difficult to refute. It does, however, require that the Extension Directorate formulates its own strategy in relation to areas and crops, which while flexible, will add to the substance of agricultural planning in the Province.

5.239 The demands on the service will grow enormously in the next few years. The upgrading, the Drovision of facilities for the staff and the revision of the terms of service so that good staff can be attracted are all areas of immediate conceorn which can bring nuick yains in efficiencv- The expansion of training schemes for 'model' farmers as at Comilla is another lnw-eost high notential form of extension work that shouild hb npursted. Crop specialists can extend the effectiveness of the resident staff at little additional exnpene to the seruire

5 240 The FEtenszion Dirrectorate has heen n 1aorloctted a reonsifiPdrahle. increase in funds for the Fourth Plan Period. The Government clearly intends to strengthen the Rervice bv imnroving the conditions of service. bv hiring additional staff, improving management and providing the service with effective field farilities, such an offiee and housing acic..mmodationn transnorta- tion, communication links and demonstration equipment.

Aarirultura rl Trnininca

5?2A1 Tha art4onn program nronnaoA 4n th4a r vort hac 4Importnt 4imn14cat4ons for the training of agricultural staff. At .-resent the agencies which employ agricultural staff are in general uinderstaffed and are all concerned w-ith the quality of the staff they have. The different agencies all have plans to upgrade their present staff an to hlre addit-ional staff. Whb.i e f-1 ther plans are in more or less advanced stages of preparation, no attempt l-ias been mfdr to co-ordinate Itue oe.ianh agriculturaltor shawi or arrange their supply from existing institutions or with the help of new institutions. Nevertheless - 86 - the likely severe shortage of trained agricultural staff, even in the next few years, threatens the progress of several parts of the program and demands immediate attention.

5.242 To highlight the problem, projections for the demand for different grades of agricultural staff from 1970/71 to 1979/80 have been nrenared.. The Department of Agriculture Extension Directorate has prepared a scheme called the Expanded Az-icultural Extension Training Proiect to unprade 4nd expand the seven p--esent institutes. The Directorate has projected its own demand for Agricultural Assistants at 560 a year uu) to 1973/74 and expects the expanded institutes to produce an average of 500 Union level Assistants per vear. The UNDP and the FAn have agreec' to stunnort thisq srheme for 5 years beginning in 1970. The Fourth Five-Year Plan contains provision a'so for two more extensinon rrain4ng institutes

5=243 Mninta-inin the FAO's facilities as at present and assuming that the pronosed two new institutes take in 150 students in 1971/72 and 250 in 1972/71 to graduate in 1973/74 and in 7974!75 2-year cours), the deficit by 1973/74 would be 1,825 trained nen. Unless a considerable increase in graduates occirq in the next year the deficit will rise by nearly 1,200 a year in 1974/75. If the magnitudes of the projections used here are reasonable, thsen 1w the mid o thve Fourth Five-Year Plan the effeciven.- s of many investments ircluded in the action program will be threatened by the shortnage of traninedi Exenion /Acci g tan ts.

5.244 At present there are 800 men In the Province who hold a Bachelors Degree in Agriculture. The Thana level Officers are drawn from among them. The present output of holders of Degrees in Agriculture from- the Dacca College and from 'Iymensingh University is 70 per annum. The establishment of an agricultural college to award degrees given by theLL ricultura' University at Mymensingh is envisioned under the Fourth Plan. A further 30 sludents are expected to be awarded theirLIastC t LI yL%U±LUL M eachL year to 1975. The graduates with both Bachelors and Masters are likely to enter in increasing numbers the research establishments, the University or its Colleges, or agencies such as EPWAPDA or ADC. Moreover, some graduates will be mitatriculated in Livestock and Fisheries. The projections of requirements take note of these sectors. There will be a serious shortfall in officer material for most of the Fourth Plan period, totaling 426 in 1975/76. Thereafter, supply should equal demand. Short-term measures to bolster the graduate Program at Mymensingh, possibly through research monies granted for work in farm economics and agricultural marketing studies, and the under-graduate programs at Dacca and tHymensingh, should suffice on the output side.

5.245 The training needs and programs of the Fisheries Directorate (Inland and Marine), of the Livestock Directorate or of the Plant Pro- tection Service have not been reviewed extensivelv. East Directorate has its own plans for consideration under the Fourth Five-Year Plan, though few are in complete form. Considerable work must be done to coordinate the various training efforts and to match the total requirement for trained staff to the existing and planned facilities. At present effort is dis- - 87 -

persed in a haphazard fashion so that priorities are impossible to formulate. The training of additional staff is a matter of great importance which it is hoped will attract foreign assistance. While the pressing demand for additional trained staff, and for better and increased facilities for in-service training to upgrade the existing staff, suggests that present schemes should be given prlority, a thorough review of the situation should be undertaken soon with the aim of producinz a coordinated program within a year or two on which foreign assistance efforts can be based.

5.246 A feasibilitv study of one or more training sub-nrojects of the Department of Agriculture can be made in 1970 and would require an estimated 9 man-months of special consultants. The total cost of the training projects now under preparation by the Department of Agriculture is estimated to be of the order of US$11 million, of which US$4 million would be in foreign exclhange. During the next few years there will also be a need for students to be trained abroad in fields not adequatelv catered for at local institutions, and for foreign teachers to come to East Pakistan to help staff the expansion of the old institutes and the proposed new institutes.

Transportation

5.247 A substantial increase in transportation requirements can certainly be expected durinR the Fourth Five-Year Plan (Tables 5.38-39). The increase in the volume of freight to be carried by the railways should exceed half a million tons a year bv 1974. that is an increase of about 50 percent. This volume could not be handled unless serious measures were taken to improve the East Pakistan railwavs. Three times the investment undertaken during the Third Plan will be required in the Fourth Plan Period according to Pakiqtan's eqtimates=q The inland water mechannzpd fleet myv he renuired to move more than double its present volume of traffic. For the fleet to achieve this, improved docking facilities and the regular dredQine of maior channels will be necessary.

5.248 While the projected growth of both imports and exports will tes1t the cn:aa itow nf the arteria1 t-h anmt-p:t riirirorAnrir for transport services is believed to exist at the local level. The growth of mArkptQ AQ a nrereniiaitp tn the P-%mM.V.eri74,ati^n of agriculture depends largely on rapid, reliable and cheap transport to the villages, i=e., "etting 8 truck to the village," and loal and distrirt markets Local transport hias received relativelv little attention to date at thet policy making level. The upgradeIn- of the road construction carried out under the Rural Works Program, especially their design criteria so as t:o brIng about the gradual ua.raAding o roads a 4eri4ni44a1 -.odestconstn:ction standards, and the completion of the basic road network along with imn,rn,md fc-414t-4s to rfoss the numerous rivers will open up the countryside through what would become an adequate feeder and arterial road system (See Map 4). - 88 -

Private Initiative

5.249 It would be proper at the end of this chapter to correct.an impression that reports of this nature tend to create.. The predominance of discussion on Government policies and programs must not be allowed to hide the fact that all policies and programs are designed to enable individual farmers and entrepreneurs to wrest a better living from their environment. Any Government's role is therefore to identify the bottlenecks to individual aspirations and to act either to remove those or to assist the people to do so.

5.250 The magnitude of the development effort in the Province requires that the effect of policies and oractices on private initiative -should play an essential part in decision making. Disincentives limit the breadth of the development front and leave the greater share of the burden on Government. The examination of the incentives for and of the obstacles to orivate initiative and investment in the aRricultural sector would warrant investigation by highly qualified experts along the lines of similar studies related to industry that have already been undertaken in the Province. - 89 -

i.APArTKR VI

WATER PROGRAM

6.01 While quicker and initially, higher yields will come from seed varieties and other agricultural inputs, Province-wide water control is necessary for the full modernization of agriculture. This is especially true for East Pakistan where droughts and floods seriously hamper agricultural production. Water control (irrigation, drainage, flood control and navigation) which are integrated with the agricultural inputs program must take into account East Pakistan's regional diversity as well as its difficult hydrolog:lcal conditions.

6.02 As noted at the outset of this report, almost all of East Pakistan lies in the delta of three great rivers: the Ganges-Padma, the Brahmaputra- Jamuna and the Meghna. These three rivers drain an area of 600,000 sqluare miles, only 7.5 percent of which lies within East Pakistan. There are unfor- tunately no storage sites withip East Pakistan that could assist in flood or low-flow regulation although feasible sites may exist within upstream riparian countries. The long-range technical problem is further complicated by the great magnitude of the peak flood flow (5 million cusecs or about twice the historical peak flood of the Mississippi River) and the enormous sediment load of the combined rivers, which is about 2.4 billion tons annuallv or greater than that of any other river system in the world. The enormous transporting power of the Ganges and Brahmaputra has resulted in major shifts of their channels in recent centuries.

6.03 The cultivable area of the Province (excluding rivers, streams, roads, towns and villages) is about 22.4 million acres. About a third of this area (from 8 to 10 million acres) is flooded annuallv on the average bv spills from the main rivers to the land and by local runoff from the heavy monsoon rains which are backed up by flood levels in the main rivers, see Map 1 Some flooding is also caused by tributary streams, draining hilly areas either within India. or within Pakistan but near the border. In the coastal belt, a zone covering 3 million acres is subject to flooding from oceanic tides and tidal surges from typhoons. Dependine on the time of year and the flood flows in the rivers, inundations vary greatly in their degree oE salinitv. A total of 17 million acres (two-thirds of the cultivable land) is subject from time. to time to one of the foregoing types of flooding although the area flooded in any sinele year has never reached this total.

6.04 Because of floods. 1.7 million tons of rice were lost between 1954 and 1956, and 1.2 million tons were lost in 1962. The rice lost in 1962 had a value of S220 million. Even greater In8ae8 were sustsained in 1968= Resides direct damage to crops, floods hamper rice production in other ways. In deepnlv flooded lAnds (over 15 feet as in the Meghna valley) farmers cannno grow any rice at all. In lands that are flooded from 3 to 12 feet, they can grow only low-yielding aus and transplanted aman rice but they must accept risks from occasional higher floods or from drought and they cannot generally use fertilizers or improved seed effectively. The effect of flooding on land use is shown graphically on Map 2. Naturally, the effect of chronlc disasters on the lives of the population is one of the most vital reasons for attacking the flood problem. During the dry season, about 60 percent of the cultivated land is left fallow because of insufficient water. Residual moisture is the basis for the cultivation of the remaining 40 percent with relatively low- yielding pulses and cereals (mainly millets?- Although rainfall in the Prov- ince averages 85 inches, about 58 inches fall during the rainy season from May to October. Therefore; even during the monsoon neriod due to irregular rainfall there may at times be insufficient water for crops.

Regions

6.05 East Pakistan has been divided into four roughly equal regions, based on hydrololgic diifferences The Brahman,tra-Tamuin.a, Ganges-Padmia a'lnd Meghna Rivers form the boundaries of the four regions: the Southwest, the Southeast, the Northeast and the Northwest. In the Northwest- droughts are more serious than floods whereas in the Northeast the reverse is true. Both droughts and flonnod are seriontis in the Stotheast and Sonuthwest regions; the floods in these cases are mainly tidal in nature.

6.06 The Southwest Region, which covers almost 10 million acres, consists of Kuishtia JTesonre, Faridpur, Khulna andeaRrisal TDistrirt6_ Earh year, cyclones produce high tides in rivers emptying into the Bay of Bengal; tidal surges from typhoons- a^metAm avreach upn tof 25; feeti aover sea level.

Li LAL ~L C ~eaC1 S A.LAO. *j. . jS- L...fl& 75 44 I- abov A. -.a- 1 _ 1. - 6.n07 Tn the past, t-idal floods especially hurt agric l1tu-al output in the coastal belt, an area of 3 million acres approximately contiguous with the laller three TDistri cts. Thl4s tid4a' inundation resulted in extens4ive sallini=- .LO LCL LUL1 CL. W L .L.L _ L&.L LS4 . nuALlaALL A.~ 4.L44 AL cL~l.LV O.t zation of the soil. Farmers planted transplanted aman rice in the wet season after th e raLCirs h'IadU partially leachledCJA tLh resiA..DUUedual salts 4from thLJALeearth. ITn the winter, the drought and soil's excess salinity prevented farmers from growing arty crops . LLUl, on'Ly a s' ngle crop heas bUeen grol-W iLn thlese Dis triCtS (see Map 2). During the past 10 years considerable progress in the construc- tiLon of' e-mbankiMenL1ts (C/t,oakIstall E -wba1nKlsmxen1-1t' p r 0JAecC t\ 1&-a proteLctedL.C arLAtare L o' du U L 1 million acres from saline inundation with resulting increased yields in the transplanted aman crops. Within this zone, irrigation uhould be introduced as soon as possible to further increase crop production and introduce dry season crops. The remaining area of 2 million acres still suffers from tidal inundation but the flooding here is from fresh and not salt water; it seems likely therefore that dry-season irrigation should in this case be done first and flood prevention later.

6.08 Although river and rain flooding are not as serious in the Southwest as tidal inundation, they do harm much of this region's agriculture especially in Faridpur and parts of Barisal. Distributaries from the Padma, such as the Arial Khan, periodically flood the latter two Districts. Because of these - 91 - rioods, Fariapur's yield or rice is only ia percent oI une East rakistan average. Consequently, Faridpur's large population consumes more rice than her farmers can produce and the government has had to import rice to feed the local population.

6.09 Droughts rather than floods are the problem in Kushtia and Jessore where ground elevations are higher. Cropping intensities average about 130 percent with considerable areas in rabi crops (pulses and sugarcane). These crops utilize residual moisture stored in the soil in late fall and early winter. Aus rice is another widespread crop in these Districts but yields are low due to dry conditions in the early part of the growing season. The Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project (Kushtia Unit) covers at its ultimate stage 0.35 million acres in Kushtia and the northern part of Jessore District. The Ganges-Kobadak development will ultimately cover a total area of 2.6 million acres. The Government has intended almost entirely to base this area's irrigation on the diversion of water from the Ganges River. In fact, the Government has proceeded to design a major barrage to facilitate this diversion.

6.10 Whether such an ultimate plan is technically and economically feasible is however not yet clear. For one thing, an agreement with India would probably be needed with respect to water releases at the Farakka barrage located just upstream of the international border. There are also other technical complexities which must be worked out. These include the effects of upstream diversions (including increased saline water intrusion, reduced depths for pumping and navigation, and reduced yields from fishing) and possible counter-measures (such as use of return flow in dounstream areas from upstream irrigation, possible closure of tidal estuaries and development of groundwater).

6.11 The Southeast Region (gross area 7.7 million acres) includes the Districts of Comilla, Noakhali, Chittagong and the Chittagong Hill Tracts. Tidal inundation is one of this region's major water problems. Much of this inundation is saline but some of this has been prevented by the Coastal Embankment project which in parts extends into the Southeast Region.

6.12 River and rain flooding and droughts also have harmful effects. The Meghna and Gumti Rivers flood large sections of Noakhali and almost all of Comilla. The Karnafuli, although in parts under control, and the Sangu River flood sections of the ChittagonR and the Chittagong Hill Tracts Districts. The Southeast produces a large crop of broadcast aman in the summer and early fall when floods in some places reach depths of 12 to 15 feet. Because of droughts, farmers produce only a small winter rice crop and some rabi crops (from residual soil moisture). They also erow a small cron of transplanted aman in less flooded areas.

6.13 The high elevations in the Chittagong Hill Tracts and parts of the Chittagong Districts prevent floods from occurring, although winter droughts are still a problem. The soil here is sandier and has a different composition from the reRt Of East Pakistan, thus enahling farmers to grow cotton, hill rice and citrus fruits on the hill slopes. - 92 -

6.14 The Northeast Region (gross area 9.2 million acres) covers Mymensingh, Sylhet, Dacca and the northern tip of Comilla Districts. This region's topography, climate and rivers all contribute to East Pakistan's worst flood problem. The region includes the Sylhet Basin through which the Brahmaputra River flowed before it changed its course during the latter part of the eigh- teenth century. Much of the Sylhet Basin lies between elevations 10 to 20 feet as a result of 30-40 feet of subsidence that has occurred over the past several hundred years. Because of the plain's low relief, channels and basins are not deep enough to drain the Brahmaputra-Jamuna and Meghna Rivers' overflow during the monsoon season. Nor can they drain the monsoon rains averaging between 220 inches in northeastern Sylhet to 70 inches in Dacca.

6.15 The ultimate solution of the Northeast Region's water problems involves serious complexities. While there are projects in Dacca Southwest, Dacca North and in several smaller areas in the extreme Northeast (total area about 0.7 million acres), and there may be some groundwater projects on perhaps 0.1 million additional acres, engineers are uncertain about the best method for proceeding in the rest of the region at this time. For many years, engineers have considered the possibility of diverting a portion of the flow of the Brahmaputra River into its former channel and thence to the Sylhet depression. Before proceeding, however, this scheme needs a great deal of further investigation.

6.16 The Northwest Region (gross area 8.5 million acres) includes the districts of Dinajpur, Rangpur, Bogra, Rajshahi and Pabna. Drought is this region's most serious problem since the monsoon season is shorter here than elsewhere in the Province. The drought lasts seven months, and prevents farmers from growing a winter crop of rice except in a small portion of the lower-lying lands. Floods are also a problem in the Northwest. While the right bank of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna has now been largely protected by an embankment (completed in 1968), the Teesta and Atrai Rivers continue to overflow. A large section of southeastern Pabna District suffers flooding from the Ganges and Brahmaputra each year (see Maps 1 and 2). As a result rice production is low and in the last few years the government has imported rice to satisfy Pabna's needs.

6.17 As is generally found to be true in East Pakistan, the zones of flooding are also the zones where surface water is available for irrigation. In the Northwest region this applies particularly to the Eastern part of Pabna District. Elsewhere in the region, surface water is scarce and for the most part, irrigation will have to be based on groundwater. Fortunately, the out- look for groundwater development for a considerable part of the region is favorable.

Low-lift Pumps

6.18 Traditional, manual methods for lifting water from surface sources have beenusged to a very limitpd extent and only Rince 1965 have low-lift numps been used on any significant scale. In view of the considerable potential for utilization of low-lift punma the Rank- in 1968 And 1969, evalujatpd thp - 93 - amount ot surtace water available ror pumping. It was estiuated hat here was sufficient surface water in the streams and channels, which have stable banks upon which low-lift pumps could be installed, to onerate about 32,000 pumps each with a capacity of 2 cusecs without materially affecting navigation, fishing or salinity intrusion and without constructing additional works to supply water to the pumps. (Because the banks of the Ganges and Brahmaputra and several of the other large rivers are unstable and have large expanses of sand accretions, it is not practicable to place low-lift pumps on them.) The Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC) has recently concluded that the total number of low-lift pumps could be increased to 40,000 if minor construction works were executed at pump sites especially in tidal regions. (By means of small earthen barriers, inflows during the high part of the tidal cycle can be retained, thus facilitating low-lift pumping.) This estimate has been based conservatively on an 8 hour pumping day and irrigated area extending 3/4 of one mile from the pump. Due to the high return from low-lift pumps these parameters will be reviewed. The latter estimate appears reasonable considering that the cost of low-lift pumping is so much lower than that for other types of irrigation.

6.19 At present, low-lift pumps are used mainly for winter (boro) irrigation. The zones where perennial winter water is available are also generally zones of flooding and it is necessary therefore to remove the pumps before the monsoon season starts. The extent of supplemental irrigation during the spring (aus) and summer (aman) season is thus rather limited. If it were practicable to operate the low-lift pumps 24 hours a dav during t:he months of peak irrigation demand (January and February) and if it were practiicable to shift their location, and if water could be efficientlv distributed so as to minimize wastaee. it would then be theoretically possible to irrigate as much as 100 acres of boro rice with a 2-cusec pump. However, because of the small fragmented landholdings and the difficulties in shifting pump locations, a 2-cusec pump can only irrigate slightly more than 50 acres. Actually, considering the 18,000 pumps now in ooeration- the current average is only about 40 acres. During the coming period of rapid distribution of pumps, the area served per DumD may be expected to remain constant or even dron slightly and then should rise again if the pump program continues to be well managed. Attention, therefore. should not only be concentrated on installation of the maximum number of puimps, but should increasingly be given to measures in the field or to organization and training designed to obtain more satiafActory results from installed pumps.

6.20 Low-lift pumps are supplied by ADC. For each pump, the Union councils. as nart of the Thana TrriaAtinn Pronram (aae Chapter VII for a detailed description) organize farmers into a group of users before the pumos are sunnlpped Tvnically there nare 20-25 far,oa in oach pump nroup though the number can be as high as 50. As indicated above, pumps are located nlono nprpnninl atr_na weith -14*tnle streabnks. However in many cases natural drainage channels tributary to the streams can also be made u_e of. Under the TIP, me..bers of t .. pump groups assist in mapping the drainage channels and to determine where, by means of minor excavation, they ran hp deepened so as to extend the availabilitv of water. The excavation is performed by the local farmers with payment for their labor y trhp Ruiral Wnrks Proncrnm (spp Chanter VTT)= The farmers m,,zl't someit-ime-s give up some land because of the channel deepening but this is provided at no cost to the Government. Fipld rhannels fnr w-ater distribution w4i-hin the typically 50-acre area of a pumping group are arranged and paid for in a similar manner.

6.21 Besides supplying the pumps, ADC lan noNpratesa andi "ntai4ni them. The pump groups pay a lump sum for rental of the pumps to ADC and also pay for the fuel. The rental increases each year from PR 150 per pump in the first year to Rs 2,700 in the seventh year and thereafter.

6.22 In 1966-67 and again in 1967-68 the Thana Irrigation Program was carried out In various parts of the Province on a pilot basis, buil- ing on the ADC low-lift pump capability which had levelled off at about 6,000 pu-,.s In 196 it- was f4rst imle..ented onaPrvnce=wilde scale U, %J%t, PJUMPS LniU. J19668 A . O JU-. I ~Sl6L.L~l onC a ProvA VUS ~UU OtCU and was quite successful. By 1969, 11,181 low-lift pumps were put into the field for operation. Due to the late arrival of some of these f rom-:ard not all were actually used for irrigation. However, 10,852 pumps with a total capaci,; of 20,6L06 cusecs wereA Operate, nd they lrriste 424,798 acres. As a result of this expanded area under irrigation, boro rice production 'lncreased from. 1,1133,000 torB of cleaned r4ce `n 1967-68 to 1,612,00A tons in 1968-69, an increase of 499,000 tons on 44.8 percent over the pre- -v'ious bUoro season .

, q q _] __. AXL _ 'TIiT 1.. 1_ iJ C . I_____X_,_ o6.2Une way 'Ln whlichI tLLCe LL1 LUw-Lift puinp rLUogaiIJ 'La organized is important because for the first time farmers are sharing in the cost of irrigation in East Pakistan. In 1968-69, Rs 1,574,100 were collected for pump rentals. In addition, pump groups purchased 2,771,543 gallons of diesel fuel at Rs 1.38 per gallon for a total of Rs 3,833,009 for fuel. Of this, 55 percent (Rs 2,108,154) represented duties and taxes paid to the Government indirectly. Farmers thus paia a total or 6 million for tne Program (excluding their contribution in constructing all the field channels) while the Government's expenditure was Rs 60,000,000. Tne fact that farmers bore 16.3 percent of the capital costs in the full first year of the Program is of importance because it is the first time that East Pakistan's farmers have made substantial direct financial contributions to a water development project. It also indicates that a system has been developed under which Government subsidies can gradually be reduced as farmers' incomes and repayment capacity rises.

6.24 The Government's program calls for 40,000 low-lift pumps in operation by 1974-75. These would irrigate a total of 1.5 million acres of boro rice or other crops in the winter season. In addition, to the extent that flooding permits (see para. 6.18), there is the possibility - 95 - of irrigation for aus rice (late spring and early summer) and during tine aman season it is estimated that about 750,000 acres could be given supplementary irrigation by means of low-lift pumps. The low-lift pump program thus has an important relationship to the rice production program if the full benefits of the latter are to be obtained.

6.25 Through the 1969-70 winter season, ADC had placed a total of 18.000 low-lift pumps throughout the Province. The ADC program has Drovided for an additional 9,000 pumps to be placed and in operation during 1970-71. The pumps to meet this program plus about 1-000 as spares and renlacements; have been purchased and will be ready for distribution starting in October 1970. ADC then nlans for 5S000 numns to be fielded in 1971-72 and ahnout 8,000 to be fielded in 1972-73 making an addition of 13,000 and a grand total of 40-000-

6.26 ADC requires financing for the additional 13,000 low-lift punps. The first group of 5,000 would cost $14.0 million of which $7.0 milliona in foreign exchange. As indicated in Table 6.1, funds would be needed by January 1, 1971. There is a manufacturing capacity for both pumps and engines in East Pakistan, but this capacity is not adequate to supply all of the engines. The local manufacturing capacity, according to ADC, wLll be adequate to provide engines for the second group of 8,000 pumps, provided that materials can be imported. In addition, the plans provide for the importation of a small number of larger capacity pumps to be used to feed the 2-cusec pumps. It will also be necessary to construct additional storage and repair facilities, strengthen the managemerLt of the low-lift pump section of ADC and train service and maintenance personnel. The cost of this second project is estimated at US$25 million, of which US$5 million would be foreign exchange. Since the final increment of 8,000 pumps may run into some difficulties regarding water availability, the figures shown in Table 6.1 indicate a somewhat slower rate of disbursement for the project than that implied above.

Tubewell Irrigation

6.2 AsiLdAe Lrom tLhle dAr=yseason flows ol perenni'LaLL streams usable iy small low-lift pumps, the large dry-season flows in the major rivers would appear prLJ.ua fLaciLe to proviLU'e the U-Los econoLuica'l source of water Lor irrigation. A major surface-water project (Ganges-Kobadak) was startedI 15 years ago but foL a vaii-y u- LC_DULLD described- below has noI p--ovi-e- benefits to the extent expected. Various multi-purpose projects incorporating irrigation fLrom sur face water have been preparea but aetailed reviews of the corresponding feasibility studies have revealed difficulties in im- ple,-,entation whLich only now are gradually being solved. Since only low-iit - 96 -

pump irrigation from surface sources has succeeded, since tubewell irrigation is the second ranking quick pay-off water input after low-lift pumps, and in view of the urgent need to expand irrigation to realize the full potential of the new IRRI rice varieties during the boro and aus seasons, the East Pakistan Government has given the highest priority to tubewell development in the Fourth Plan period and has proposed the installation of 20,000 tubewells. Concurrent tubewell programs are underway by EPWAPDA and ADC.

Lr 70)a 1. er 4S 14-l AOI tha Es.t PW ,'s Dan. ha abundan ground

V *-U XI&C&C AD .LJ. LLAC U L. LLI.S . - D *L la &O 042 La * 5UL=LCL water resources. At this stage however information is as yet insufficient to per.mit "iLntLensiLve UdeveLopm5ent7 (we.lls of mAore thLan 2=cusec cappacity located about half a mile or less apart) except in certain areas of .liu,ited si'ze. Available_ informattion indicates t hat thte fa-vorat-le groun,d- water zones not subject to flooding are located mainly in,the Northwest Lt<.LULI WiLC L1y UALUIU LJVVL d.LL 6i 5Xregate L.1± L E VCU±.X IL aUVUL "4VVV square miles. The second largest zone, in the northwest part of the

Soutl[west Region, covers about 2,600 square .miles. There 'Ls also a zone of about 500 square miles in the northwest corner of the Northeast Region.

'LIn thL1leTLhLNla Ok'urgaonintensive=typeA evelopment (see next para.) over la relatively large capacity (3-cusec) wells have been operated successfully per square mlle irrigated. Even if an ultimate figure only half this is used, it would appear that over 11,000 3-cusec (or 17,000 2-cusec) wells could safely be installed. it would seem prudent therefore to plan for such a goal while obtaining confirmation from concurrent investigations and on-going projects (see para. 6.33). Wnen more complete hydrogeologic information becomes available, massive tubewell developments (large capacity wells of over 4 cusecs and over 500 feet deep) wii aiso ultimately require consideration; see paras. 6.33 and 6.86.

6.29 An EPWAPDA intensive-type tubewell proiect was substantially completed in 1967 in the Thakurgaon region. It consists of 365 electri- cally-driven large capacity (3 cusec) tubewells to serve an irrigated area of about 71,000 acres under full development. As part of the project, a brick-lined canal generallv several hundred feet lone was Drovided leading from each well. Since completion, additional expenditures for lining field channels that take off from the brick-lined canal (the region is sandy) have been necessary. The cost per well (or per acre irrigated) has been hiah because of the long and narrow configuration of the proiect area and the dispersal of the well sites and because of social benefits provided by means of rural electrification (the nroiect costs include a central generating station and an electric transmission system). EPWAPDA i8 now condncitning studies that could lead to a more rational use of the electric transmission system through the addition of more wells. Irriga- tion and improvrd ariuiilt-uirp for the Thnkurgaon mrniort are he ing dPevlonpd through cooperation with the Pakistan Academy for Rural Development (PARD) - 97 -

at Comilla. which has provided an extension director since mid-1966. This important aspect had not been given due consideration in the early stages of the prolect but that has now been corrected and incremental crop yields in the project are good.

6.30 The total number of tubewells in East Pakistan at present is about 1,360) of which 365 are in the Thakurgaon region (see preceeding paragraph). A more comprehensive development (in the sense that agricuL- tural inputs were provided concurrently) has been that of PARD at ComilLa where 160 wells have been installed since 1962. These wells ranged in depth from about 150 to over 400 feet, are 6 inches in diameter and have an average capacity of 1.25 cusecs. Most have been constructed with hand-powered rigs and have utilized locally-made strainers. The pumps are centrifugal rather than turbine-type and are powered by both electric motors and diesel engines. The closest well spacing is about 2,000 feet.

6.31 The ADC, using its own forces and local contractors, has A. t#&alIled onLy about 800' *ubewe.l.s iA. the past . LWo years main.LyL eause the focus of ADC's attention has been on low-lift pumps and fertilizer distributi;;n. Th-e cost ofr these tulbewellis lo d3ale, whichl have b-een U.L L L.U 6L± J * LL IV L.L~. 1)1 LL&19 L.L,U~ L. L U L. Wi~L. LA uav ~a mainly 6 inches in diameter, has ranged from Rs 26,000 to Rs 40,000.

6.32 EPWAPDA has available feasibility studies for 4 additional tubewell projects in the northern part of the Province that will serve an irrigable area of about 280,000 acres with a total of 1,410 3-cusec tubewells. Various aspects of these feasibility studies require further study, however, including such questions as optimum capacity of each tubewell, whether the wells should be driven by diesel engines rather than electric motors, the extent of appurtenant works required (e.g. lined distribution channels as at Thakurgaon), and arrangements for agricultural inputs. The estimated costs of project preparation, final engineering and capital investment for the 4 tubewell projects are given in Table 6.1 under EPWAPDA Tubewells I.

6.33 Further tubewell developments on an intensive basis can and should proceed as information on aquifer conditions becomes available. A five-year study by the US Geological Survey is scheduled to begin in July 1970. Interim information will, however, be available not only from the USGS but also from tubeweiis on a non-intensive basis being developed by ADC. Some information is already available on a zone located in the flood plain of the right bank of the Brahmaputra River where floocl protection already exists. It is therefore reasonable to expect preparation of additional intensive tubewells, as these data materialize. The cost and timing of one such project is indicated in Table 6.1 under EPWAPDA Tubewells lI. 6.34 ADC has just concluded negotiations for a 3,000 tubewell project with a total cost of approximately $45 million. The tubewells will he installed on a turnkey basis by contractors (approximately 1/3 by local and 2/3 by expatriate contractors). The wells will he 2 -rusec capacity with imported fiberglass screens and casings, deep-well turbine pumps and diesel engines. Sixty percent of the total costs will he finan-ed jointly by IDA and the Swedish International Development Agency, including parallel financing up to about $ 7 million by the Canadinn Tnternntional Development Agency. Both engineering and agricultural consultants will be nrovided under the Credit and the consultants' termQ nf ref erene include preparation of an additional tubewell project. The timing of further tuihewell financ4ng wi{h 11 depend nr4imarilv on ADC's navfonce under this Credit.

6.35 In general, the ADC tubewells are of lower capacity (1.5 to 2 csecs) thenr the PPUIAPnA nnes and are d4spersed (spaCed a mInimum of about 1.5 miles apart). Prime movers are diesel engines. Some of the ADC tub-ells are and will be located in the same zones as tLhe ErWnfrr A tubewells but this is considered beneficial in that the ADC wells provide valuable information on the aquifer characteristics for use in plaanning the intensive EPWAPDA wells. On the other hand, it is obvious that coordination of the two pro-gr--,.s is necessa-.j.

If, A nlr 4 Screnl con . Aer- n atubwL prjecs 4L AU AU_L t L .oL.1 t _0_z__*A ,. the initial 3,000 well projects to be financed by the International Dvelopment Agency, cwedAen adA Canada. TI was agree' dring the IA ~ V~J.jJM.A~i.L~ , ~ anl.. %A&Lu* L L.. wa U LLLL1 LLi LJLia negotiations that such additional projects would be coordinated with the TDA project.

.i.J/L JLL1UJ0V I L L L.J

6J.37 The~ pr±incipal. contrants~LL onL accel Lerae tubewell deve.lopment appear to be:

(a) The rate of formation of water-user groups (the tubeweLl equi-vaLer.t of thle low-lift pump groups, both of which are formed under the TIP program) though this might be rapidly overcome with the new emphasis on tubewell development and coupled with the TIP program (see Chapter VII);

(b) Tne speed at which groundwater conditions can be verified in specific areas;

(d) Institutional capacity with respect to supervision, maintenance and proper irrigation distribution. - 99 _

o.38 rinan.c'al resour ce8adar tra'triea manipower are nIoLt major cUL0stLL IIILb. Both the Center and Provincial Governments as well as several foreign donors have indicated a readiness to make substantial additional funds avaiLabie for an accelerated tubewell program in East Pakistan. As regards manpower, the existing local contractor capacity, together with expatriate conitractors and the limited but developing capabilities of ADC, EPWAPDA and the Comilla Cooperative should be sufficient to sink wells as rapidly as water-user groups can be formed and the necessary concomnitant irrigation distrLbution facilities can be constructed by the water-user groups. This means that the major constraints are institutional, i.e. TIP, Department of Agriculture, ADC and EPWAPDA. Bearing this in mind, it is estimated that the preSent annual rate at which well groups can be formed and wells sunk would De about 1,000 to 1,500 ADC-type dispersed wells and 500 to 750 EPWAPDA-type intensive wells. This rate would increase as the key institutions -- TIP, Agriculture, EPWAPDA and ADC -- demonstrate a greater capacity to form groups; provide supervision and maintenance; construct, or have water-user groups construct, irrigation distribution facilities and as additional information on the under- ground aquifers is obtained.

6.39 As has been indicated above, the tubewells constructed by ADC and PARD utilizing local methods and materials have cost considerably less than either the EPWAPDA tubewells or the 3,000 now being undertaken by ADC. Recent experience in West Pakistan with respect to tubewells indicates that of 83,000 tubewells installed during the past decade only 4,000 have been by public agencies and the remaining 79,000 by private individuals who have been able to obtain credits for the purpose from local banks. The wells have utilized indigenous methods and resemble considerably those at Comilla. Despite a certain percentage of unproductive wells, the West Pakistan wells have on the whole been highly successful. This indicates that the applica- bility of indigenous methods in East Pakistan needs further study and detailed consideration. Obviously recognition would have to be given to the fact that the number of creditworthy individual farmers in East Pakistan is far less, proportionately, than in West Pakistan. Consideration should be given to a policy which would give direct subsidies to the private sector through the Agricultural Development Bank, which would be equal to the subsidies given to EPWAPDA and ADC. Fractional pumps srld dug wells should also be investigated in 'this regard.

6.40 Now that several types of tubewell program have been successfully launched in East Pakistan, comparative data will become available that can become a basis of more intensive programs. It is recommended that a timely evaluation be made that will take into account the need for accelerated tubewell investment, rapid verification of groundwater conditions, and coordination of the various tubewell projects. The evaluation should also take into account: the organization of tubewell groups and irrigation distribution; tubewell operation and maintenance; and an economic analysis of comparative costs and benefits of different types and sizes of tubewells (considering also dug wells as mentioned above). Such an analysis rnust - 100 - consider not only the need for an acceleraed LUDeWeell program ana tecnnicai questions, but also the need for labor-intensive projects in East Pakistan and the desirability of improving indigenous capacity, whether that of private contractors, cooperatives or governmental organizations. It may be possible for the consultants engaged on the 3,000 tubewell project ot ADC (para. 6.34) to make the necessary analysis.

Increasing Output from Existing Projects

6.41 Large-scale water development in East Pakistan began in the early 1950's. At that time after several years of studies, a team of UN experts proposed the Ganges-Kobadak project covering 1.9 million acres in the Southwest Region. In 1954, 1955 and 1956, severe flood damages occurred and the Government of Pakistan again sought the assistance of the UN. A team of experts visited East Pakistan in late 1956. Their report, known as the "Krug Mission Report," dated 1957 recommended the creation of an autonomous corporation to deal with water and electric power development. Such a corporation, known as the East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) was established in 1959.

6.42 Since EPWAPDA's establishment, six agricultural water projects have had primary importance. The main emphasis thus far has been on single-purpose flood prevention projects especially in the coastal area of the Southwest Region. Of the six existing projects, three have been completed (Thakurgaon tubewells, Brahmaputra Right Embankment and Dacca-Demra) and three have been partially completed (Coastal Embankments, Ganges- Kobadak (Kushtia Unit) and Chandpur). The Thakurgaon tubewell project has already been described. Dacca-Demra, a small project (15,000 acres) providing partial flood protection and irrigation was completed in 1967. The Brahmaputra Right Embankment project was constructed in the years 1964-68. This project for which IDA provided a credit of $5 million consists of an embankment 135 miles long and 12 feet high and appurtenant structures consisting of drainage sluices. Protection against floods from the Brahmaputra River have been provided for 580,000 acres and important benefits are being realized, mainly through higher yields from transplanted aman rice rather than the lower yielding broadcast aman previously grown. As a next stage the protected area will require irrigation facilities by means of tubewells (see para. 6.33).

6.43 Coastal Embankments: AmonR the six existine Droiects. the Coastal Embankment project has constituted by far the largest effort. A sum of $200 million (total equivalent) has been invested since the nrolect started in 1959. The principal source of financing has been rupees generated by the US PL-480 nrogram. The nroiect will ultimatelv nrovide protection against inundation from oceanic tides in an area of 3 million acres sub-dividued i ntn 102 separate nnldeFrR TnintiAtinn i9 of two main types: saline and non-saline, with various gradations thereof. - 101 -

6 44 Phase I of the nronict nnonsits of 86 nolders with an aggregate area of 2.0 million acres. To date 61 polders have been completed nrevidino nrntotrtinn to an area of 1 0 million arrpq* the rpmnaning 2', polders in Phase I are partially completed. Construction has consisted nrimnrivl of earth Pmhbnkmpnts. These hnua an avernag height of aboiit 12 feet and their aggregate length is over 2,000 miles. Numerous sluices have been provrifded through the emhAnkmenta to pronvide out e1prtQ for interior drainage.

6.45 Although the project has provided important benefits through. elimination of salin-e flooding, there ave also bee, coaS fn negativ, benefits since farmers in some of the polders had previously been accus- tomed to using non-sal4ne flood waterrs for. irrigatior. As a next stage of development, "water management" in the interior of each of the polders, coupled with agricultural inputs, would provide sizeable benefits at relatively low cost. Water management would have several facets including:

vCki/ LI JUUUi:L ±L&l-JL.L& UXLLU V-LU&LL.LC X VL WL.L %A A. L. "I. LL. bution by various means; (b) conservation of natural rainfall, mainly through adopt'on by farumers of proper cultural practices; and (c) development of deiap as well as shallow groundwater to the extent available. Prelimirnary Infoma&tion is availbable wtitL respect to the extent of areas that could be developed by the first means -- it might cover 1.5 million acres or about half the total area of the coastal embankments. Closure of some of the tidal estuaries might extend this area considerably but the feasibility of such schemes can be determined only after detailed study (see water study or the Southwest Region described below). The extent to which the other two methods are applicabie is not known at the present time.

6.46 Because of its size, remoteness, and various technical and sociological complexities, the Coastal Embankment area will require special treatment and effort. Such special effort appears well justified in view of the large potential of the area and the relatively low additional capital investments required. The speed with which the potential of the area can be realized will depend primarily on the resolution of organizational and institutional problems. The Bank is prepared to send to Pakistan a special mission to assist the government in formulating, in the first instance, the institutional framework needed. Concurrently, "pilot poiders" for demonstrating the value of water management and agricultural inputs can be advanced as well as technical studies for their gradual extension to a major part of the entire coastal embankment area. The TIP program would form an important part of this effort.

6.47 Of the remaining 25 poiders in Phase I, some construction has been started on 17. "Group A" designates the Phase I polders which are either completed or started (78 polders covering 1.5 million acres) while "Group B" designates the 8 remaining polders (covering 0.5 million acres) not yet started. The Group A polders are scheduled for completion by EPWAPDA in 1970-71 and 1971-72 at a cost of $40 million. These polders have had public acceptance in varying degrees. - 102 -

6.48 The Group A polders need additional project planning and water m.anagem,entn to m.itigate the loss of beneficial fresh river owrr iw -in some areas and to increase the water supply and management in all the po'lders. ILhle Guroup uupoldlers hlave bueen deferredA dlue to unacceptance biy the public primarily because they would interfere with freshwater inflows during October and because intensive polder planning will need to be completed before construction can properly resume. For these reasons constructLori expeniu"Ltures will bue mi.nmal in Group BD ['orthe next thIIree years with emphasis on project planning as is indicated in Table 6.1.

6.49 Phase II construction would be deferred to permit polder by polder project planning and management stuaies to be completed with a construction start scheduled for 1972-73. An overall management assistance program, including all facets of implementation from management of water supply, operation of physical works, agricultural extensi-on through advisory services at-dil levels has been programmed for the entire Coastal Embank- ment project as indicated in Table 6.1. The management assistance program, together with the project planning studies now proposed, would-be directed toward solving the many problems of project implementation including the development of a viable overall organization to direct the project.

6.50 For the Ganges-Kobadak project already mentioned above (paras. 6.09 and 6.41), technical assistance was provided by the Food and Agricul- ture Organization of the UN. The Kushtia Unit of the project was started in 1955 with aid in the form of foreign exchange provided by Canada and the United States. The total sum invested since 1959 in GK-Kushtia has been $60 million total equivalent. The purpose of the project is to provide irrigation and drainage and eliminate tiooding in a gross area ot 350,000 acres (120,000 acres in Phase I and 200,000 acres in Phase II). Only Phase I is in operation at present.

6.51 Although GK-Kushtia is providing benefits, these have fallen short of expectations since irrigation is being provided for only 40,000 acres and even this occurs at the end of and immediately following the monsoon season. There is thus practically no irrigation during the 'msummer season" (March-June) nor during the rabi season (November- February). The reason for the disappointing results thus far is that the project has suffered from several serious technical difficulties and because the type of irrigation distribution (conventional gravity system) adopted may not be suited to East Pakistan conditions (very small and badly fragmented landholdings). On the other hand, GK-Kushtia can still provide substantial benefits. The serious technical difficulties mentioned are, in fact, gradually being corrected; a stepped-up effort is needed, however. - 103 -

6.52 The actions that are now indicated as being necessary and desirable are as follows:

(a) Terms of reference should be prepared for the engagement of a consulting firm covering the fields of engineering, agrioulture. agricultural economics and proiect management. The firm would be charged with the studying of the nrnioet and exnediting means of gettina the desired results. In preparing these, the terms of reference in tho Rank's Nnvember 1Q97 misRinn repnort as well as the comments made herein should be taken into consideration.

(b) Collection of water charges would promote efficient 4 use of the pro ect wh4ll pviding r.eAeA revenue.

(c) '11,e use of -un.n-ter, if onl, on a supplemental bas4s, should be considered in both the Kushtia Phase I and Ph ase TT in4ts. TUse of -roundwaterin any part nf the £E LUU LUL t, LO JC 4 5 - f.-.. LC .. a-..; y GK area should not be construed as indicating a lesser nee' f0or Alverslon. of surface water from th,-e ranges River. This matter will have to be studied on a broad basis to Lnclude, fLor exampLe, sa.Line-lntrusion effects. Such a broad approach would be followed in the proposed

SouLhwest RgiOnUII Wftat rLuuy U2bCK.LUCU UC.LUW.

(d) mne costs lndicsted in Table 6.1 are L'or tLite following

(i) Part (a) involving $6.0 million total equivalent would cover about 1,000 low-lift pumps supplied from the existing canal system and 200 tubewells plus some improvements of the existing canal system to enable dry-season irrigation of about 50,000 acres within a few years.

(ii) Management assistance including engineering and agricultural aspects as outlined above; cost $2.0 million total equivalent.

(iii) Completion of Phase II at an estimated cost of $26 million total equivalent. This work would be scheduled to start July 1, 1973.

6.53 Chandpur project: In 1963 IDA granted a credit of US$9.0 million for the Chandpur project, a combined irrigation and flood protection scheme covering 127,000 acres. (The area was later changed to 140,000 acres gross and 75,000 acres net.) The irrigation features were dropped in late 1965 and the credit reduced to US$5.25 million. Work proceeded on the flood - 104 -

control features but these too were halted early in 1967 and the remaining pr-oceeds of the credit were used to engage new, consultants (in1968 to) assist in the preparation of a revised project which would restore irrigation a primary feature of tepr0j=eCt but o us-a. l _-_3'fied_ as gaL.LL .LI~Ly U a.a ~LV~LU ~JJ. I..&~ jJLJJ ~ LP I..~i a OUUO LaULtL.ULJ.~ LY ULUU.L.L.LCU basis as compared with the original project. Whereas, under the original project, irrigation Udistrbution was Lt Lhave UbeLe aCoLkLishd uy meanis 01 canals elevated above the terrain (which involve high construction costs anau extensLLve land acquisi'tlon) , the re-v.seu proJeCt w-u±LJ make use of natural drainage channels requiring the acquisition of very much less land. Water would be lifted from the drainage channels by means of portable low- lift pumps. Finally, flooding within the project area would be eliminated gradually over a perioa of several years to allow farmers time to adjust to the new cropping conditions provided by water control. In Aprll 1970 IDA granted a credit of UZ$13.0 miElion to assist in linancing completion of the Chandpur project, as revised.

6.54 The planning, design and organizational concepts that have now been embodied in the Cnandpur project are expected to find quick acceptance by farmers of the benefits resulting from comprehensive water control (irrigation, drainage and floUUU pLrVeLnLUilJ * A p[1II>Lus Labu1L L I5L with water actually available throughout the project area (via the drainage system), farmers will actually see water during the dry season; this should convince them rapidly regarding the reliability of the project's water supply -- a feature that has been lacking, for exampie in tne Ganges-Kobadak project described above. That farmers react positively to ready availability of water during the dry season has in fact already been proved by the success of the low-lift pump program described above. A second reason is that the use of the drainage channels means that far less land acquisition will be required than for a system of gravity canals; this should also promote farmers' confidence in this zone of extremely dense population. Finally, the fact that flooding will not be eliminated too abruptly will give farmers time to readjust their kharif season cropping from broadcast to higher-yielding transplanted aman.

6.55 Chandpur has been able to gain in other ways from the Ganges- Kobadak experience. The pumping units in the Chandpur pumping station will be of relatively simple design -- perhaps a bit less efficient in a strictly technical sense than those of the Ganges-Kobadak project but on the other hand easier to maintain and operate and better suited to East Pakistan conditions. The Chandpur pumping station will also be located on a relatively stable water channel (the Daktatia River) and will not suffer the serious siltation problems that have afflicted the intake of the Ganges-Kobadak pumping station.

6.56 The appraisal report, on the basis of which IDA in April 1970 granted a credit of US$13.0 million and which is included in Volume IV, indicated that the economic rate of return of the project would be about 22 percent. In this calculation the cost of farm family labor was included; if omitted the rate of return would be considerably higher. The appraisal - 105 -

report also estimated that the net value of production per acre would increase from Rs 425 without the project to Rs 1,411 with the project, an increase of 232 percent.

6.57 With respect to recovery of project cost, under existing TIP procedures the cost of operation, maintenance and replacement of low-lift pumps are to be fully recovered by a "rental charge" collected by the Thana associations. Rental charges are collected on a graduated scale rising to a level sufficient to ensure recovery by the tenth year of full annual operation, maintenance and replacement costs which will amount to Rs 47 per acre. The cost of fuel estimated at about the same amount per acre will be paid directly by the pump group members. The cost of operation and maintenance of the major project works is estimated at about Rs 15 per acre.

6.58 With respect to repayment of capital cost and operation and maintenance costs of the major works, the Government will give this further study. This question will form part of a Province-wide investigation to be assisted in part by the Comprehensive Study described in Chapter VIII.

6.59 The fact that the Chandpur proiect area is already densely populated and that the population will continue to rise presents a problem whlch in nnt limSted to the Chandnur area and ia tvnirnl of East Pakistan. There will be continued pressure on the land not only for agricultural prntlio-inn hbut Alan for additional rural housRin and for roads. These problems which have no easy solution will require further investigation and long-range plann.ing na aesribed in ther omrpeheniive Stuidyv

6.60 'eplrnn conept lnvoled 4in t-he rianr.dur prnoJet, repre-- sent an important step forward. It should be borne in mind that a large, co...plet ..,ut-p pro4ec suc-h as Chandpu-rde not yet exist 4in East Pakistan. Successful and rapid implementation of the Chandpur pro4ect thus has crucial i mnrtAnee fnr future mn lt1ip-murnoae tirniprots

6.6 1.N..1 4Mult r (4 ,firri-ation,drair.age, flood prevention and navigation) surface-water projects have been studied intensively in recent years and a starategy has now evolved hat is sitale tto the smnll, frbag- 7 a,.,... ~~OLOC mented landholdings that prevail in most of the Province. The elementss of

t.l,i as.rategy are:

fa)IT-Cse o lbr-i.*.ensivz- ..ethfAs (for the extensive earth- works involved) which are well suited to the local condi- t.Lons of clir.ate and "Labor; - 106 -

(b) A well integrated project organization for provision of agricultural inputs, including emphasis on rural infrastructure (see Chapter VII);

(c) Adoption of a method of irrigation distribution (i.e. use of natural drainage channels as distributaries plus low- lift pumps) suitable to the conditions of small landholdings; and

(d) Careful phasing of project construction.

6.62 Experience with embankment construction using labor intensive methods has been good. In the Coastal Embankment project, over 2,000 miles of 12-feet high embankments, which provide protection against tidal flooding, have been built by such methods. The Brahmaputra Right Embankment (135 miles long, 12 feet high), which provides protection against river flooding, also used such methods plus supplementary compaction by machine.

6.63 Phasing of multi-purpose surface water projects is practicable since the projects involve relatively small-scale civil works. For example, a primary pumping station (cost $1 to $2 million) can be built in 3 years to serve 1,000 to 2,000 low-lift pumps (50,000 to 100,000 acres). As a second example, embankments can be planned for partial flood protection of a project area or left for a later stage.. Careful phasing can reduce the long gestation periods previously associated with multi- purpose projects down to the point where they will be only slightly longer than the gestation period for tubewell projects.. The multi-purpose projects. moreover, provide important flood control, drainage and navigation and possibly also inland fishing benefits.

6.64 Experience thus far with multi-purpose projects is limited. Only one small project -- Dacca-Demra, covering 15,000 acres -- has been completed. A second -- Chandpur, 140,000 acres -- is now underway; this project has been assisted by two IDA credits totalling $18.25 million (see paras. 6.53-6.60). Proiect preparation is however almost completed for 8 projects with an aggregate gross area of 1.5 million acres (1.0 million acres net) as follows (see Table 6.2 for areas of the Drolects):

Dacca Southwest Karnafuli Mithtiri Pabna Belkuchi Upper Kusiyara

Sangu - 107 -

These projects are technically sound, indicate high rates of return and can ine,tegrateU inLotrsv--cewi a lorg-arg de plan for watr de-ve]Lop- ment including flood control. The status of project preparation as well as the available information on these 8 projects indicates that it is safe to proceed -- as a next step in their implementation -- to final engineering foliowed Dy tendering for construction. Tne financing of final engineering for the first three projects has already been assisl:ed by IDA credits totaiiing $3.2 million. Additional financing requirements for capital investments as well as for final engineering are in Table 6.1. Descriptions of the 8 projects are in Annex 2.

6.65 In addition to the above 8 projects, there are 4 projects covering 2.5 million gross acres (1.8 million net acre) for which feasibility studies do not yet exist but which are considered to be technically and economically sound, as follows (project areas are in Table 6.2):

Dacca North Barisal Little Feni Comilla-Noakhali

The conclusions regarding technical and economic soundness with respect to these projects have been based on knowledge of topographic, soils and hydrologic factors and of existing cropping patterns. These areas are similar to projects that are in an advanced state of preparation (especially Chandpur and Dacca Southwest). These 4 projects can proceed to feasibility study preparation followed by final engineering and construction. Since the aggregate area of the 4 projects is large, it is felt: that for the time being, development should be limited to an initial phase covering about 0.6 million out of the ultimate of 1.8 million net acres. The estimated costs of project preparation, final engineering and capital investment for these 4 projects (initial phases only) are given in Table 6.1; project descriptions are in Annex 2.

6.66 Manpower requirements to carry out the engineering for the multi- purpose projects, low-lift pump and tubewell programs, special investigations and studies, and the basic data gathering described below present serious problems that the Government of East Pakistan must deal with effectively in undertaking an expanded agriculture and water program. A large number of expatriate specialists would be needed in the first three years 1970/71 to 1972/73. Even assumina that consultants' home-office forces will make up;part of the work force and that there will be maximum participation by Pakistan consultants and government forces, the expat:riates required to reside in East Pakistan for the EPWAPDA projects alone total about 125 in 1970-71 and would increase to about 225 in 1971-72 and lc72-71. Presently about 60 expatriate consultants are associated with EPWAPDA proiects and this number would have to be rptninpd; thp tntal rerntirenients for these two years is thus 285. The need for Pakistani consultants' personnel will alRo be hiah with a 1970-71 dpmnnd ptimnAted at ahn,ot ?n00 increaming to - 108 -

about 350 in 1971-72 and 1972/73. East Pakistan faces a difficult task in absorbing these personnel. Experience indicates that such a large and sudden influx of expatriates will create public relations problems which must be dealt with carefully and at an early date. Housing; enuitment and other needs must be met if recruitment is to be successful. Approval of cAnnllltantR by the government muRt be nrompt. While an effnrt shnould be made to locate consultants' offices outside of Dacca, practical considerations relating to lnrAtinn nf key agenries, fac1-ilities and 4nfnV-.atin 4r.dl cate that a large portion of the expatriates must be absorbed in Dacca. In addition to the need fonr cnnasultantsa P.PWtAPfA w411 facea large manpower requirements for the expanded program. Other agencies, such as the Survey of Pakistan, will also require incrased Tmanpower. EPW PDA will need engineering staff and a sizeable body of sub-professional personnel for operation and m-nintenance n8 the program progresses, although this need w411 develop more slowly than that for planning and constructing projects.

6.67 The starting and completion dates shown for project preparation, firan en ineer.ifng en r.dn struct i on o f th e tua r i auo eca (see Table .1) assume that all necessary actions will be taken by the Provincial Govern- ment. To speed up administrative actions, such as approval of con.sultan.ts' contracts and approval of consultants' personnel resident in East Pakistan, existing proceAures need to be streamlined. Thi8 mi-ht require grantirg EPWAPDA more autonomy in such matters. The Provincial Government has inA4*e A 4A oS..11 W41n-s *nnrtoAAto ha "afoaru-n oAmn4-4*a-tA4-. na

6.68 As the phaseA progrsm.s for l-T.,lft p p,tubewells, anA mu-lti purpose projects accelerate or constraints are felt, and as new information deve'Lops L,rom the proposed investigations anlu sur veys, it will bUe necessa to periodically re-examine the projects and phasing for the Action Program. Ine Bank would be willing to undUertake tlhis responsibility iLn the course of preparing the Comprehensive Study. It is possible that projects other than those noted in the Action Program or projects yet to be developed will subsequently show rates of return higher than those in the Action Program. This should be considered at the time of appraisal of eacn project as weli as at the time of periodic revision of the Action Program. EPWAPDA, ADC and the Planning Department should apply sound economic criteria as early as possible in the selection of projects yet to be worked up. Meanwhile, there is no reason to delay undertaking the projects now included in the Action Program.

6.69 The total area involved in the 12 multi-purpose projects is 4.0 million acres. Adding the area of the partially completed existing projects -- 3.5 million acres (including 3.0 million acres in the Coastal Embankment project area) -- gives a total of 7.5 million acres (see Table 6.2); if the existing Brahmaputra Right Bank project is included, the total gross area with flood protection becomes 8.1 million acres. The corresponding net area is 6.5 million acres. Adding the areas of low-lift pump and tubewell developments (Table 6.2) gives 9.5 million acres of irrigation (10.3 million including existing irrigated areas). - 109 -

6.70 With one exception, there are no technical constraints preventing full development of the multi-purpose projects in the Action Program as ample technical data exist (topography, hydrology and soils) for the areas involved and there are no unresolved technical problems of consequence. The one exception is the Coastal Embankment project where full development (including water management) is clearly attainable only in half the project area. Full development of the remaining half will probably have to await results - as they become available - of a special study of the Southwest Region. This reduces the net area without technical constraints from 6.5 to 5.3 million acres. Adding the low-lift pumps, tubewells and existing areas gives 9.1 million acres irrigated.

6.71 For the development of additional water-control projects beyond the 9.1 million acres of irrigation and 8.1 million acres of flood prevention. technical constraints both with respect to unresolved technical problems and availability of basic data become crucial. To overcome these constraints, various "special studies" will be needed. However, before discussing these, it is useful to consider the two main areas of technical constraints, the flood control aspects and the water balance aspects, bearing in mind the four dintinct regions of the Province nreviouslv denerried.

F1 ood rnntrnl Asperts

6. 79 The tntnl ni-an nf thr miiltS-nil-prosn rMoarjct In the AntInn P-roram that would ultimately receive flood protection is about 8.1 million acres. Th,ge Coastal Embankment rpro4ect -41I proviede protee-tion basically asainst ocean flooding. Protection against other types of flooding (spill from the rivers and from excess rainfall backed up by high river stages) would thus amount to about 5.1 million acres.

6.73 The average area flooded in the monsoon season in East Pakistan is froml Q to In .,illion acres but 1-7 M.illion acres are SUl4ect to flooding from time to time. Thus even with 5.1 million acres protected, a flood proble,m of of%as4iAdenh1a mni titAn wouldA v*a?nn. Th probemf prote the remaining areas becomes progressively more complex and involves considerable risks. Th.e Ganges and Brrahmaput ra carr, at m u.-4 tn. staeo a higher flood flow than most rivers in the world and their sediment load (2.4 -l4ion tnons anually) exceeAs that of any ot"her river syste.. 4ln the world. Because of their enormous transporting power, the Ganges and Brahmaputra r4.vers have experienced .mJor shifts of their. .hannemsin recent centuries. The schemes to contain these rivers by "double embanknents" should 'we investigat-ed -it 8Ureat care in view of -le very real 'anger of ULA%JUJ.UU~~ ±1AV~O L.A. 5GU~UA WA. LU 51 ~a 6U t.aL ~~ ILl VA.VW IdA.~ LLL~"IId V.L A. %UOI overtopping and breaching of the containing er.abankments and the problem of quick.ly evacuati'Lng the dUenseily popuJLaLteu ruraL zones 'Jn thle areas protectedU by the embankments. With one minor exception, none of the 15 multi-purpose pruject (3 existing and 12 new projects) iLn tne Action rrogram wouua invoive - 110 - double embankments. The one exception is the Dacca-Southwest project, the upper part of whL oLihwoulIdU iLncLudUe over a stretchll ofL abVout 8 m'iles an embankment paralleling the existing Brahmaputra Right Bank Embankment. However, such limited double embanLking is not considered serious and, in fact, wii provide a significant prototype to be observed carefully following completion of construction. Tne proDlem of fl"ood control is further complicared Dy tne lack of materials, principally stone and gravel, that are required in the construction of works for river training and embankment revetment. Tne need for such works intensifies once double embanking is undertaken on a significant scale. Flood control is further complicated by the fact that little is known about the ultimate effect of upstream projects in India that involve embankments and in some cases double embankments.

6.74 wnile elimination of flooding is clearly crucial to East Pakistan -- whether in human or economic terms -- it must nevertheless be remembered that local farmers have over the centuries adjusted remarkably to the annual cycle of inundation. This is most evident with respect to the prevailing crops grown, especially long-stem broadcast aman (also called "floating rice") which, although low-yielding, not only tolerates flooding but actually depends on it. Higher yielding transplanted aman is also widely grown where flooding depths are shallow and rainfall is favorable. Water control, through elimination ot deep tlooding and provision of irrigation, will permit planting of higher yielding varieties but it must be realized that sudden changes may not always be acceptable to or manageable by the farmers. Three examples come to mind in this connection. One is the Coastal Embankment project, where elimination of fresh-water flooding in some of the polders included in the project has forced the issue of "iwater management" in the interior of the polders. Another is Chandpur where it is proposed that flooding be eliminated gradually over a period of several years to allow farmers time to adjust to the new conditions. A third example is the Brahmaputra Right Bank area where farmers have largely adjusted to the elimination of flooding but where it is evident that further major benefits are realizable by introducing irrigation.

Water Balance Aspects

6.75 During the course of the next 3 to 5 years, provided that the program of projects, studies and basic data gathering go forward, a growing body of information on the hydrology of East Pakistan will become available. With this information "water balance studies" will become possible, first on a regional basis and ultimately on a Province-wide basis. Such water balance studies will play an essential role in establishing the priorities of future proiects and in evaluating their effects on water supply requirements for various uses, including irrigation, navigation and fish culture.

6.76 Water balance studies will also be necessary in determining relative priorities for the long-term development of groundwater versus surface water diversions by means of major structures like the Ganges and Brahmaputra harragpR (aee below under Snpeeal InvpetiQatinns). 6.77 As far as the multi-purpose projects in the Action Program are concerned, the allocation of water use during at least the next decade wiil present no problem. These projects have been chosen not only on the bEasis of acceptable flood risk (para. 6.73) but considering aiso availability ot water supply which would be obtained from rivers with relatively stablef channels so that sediment problems at pumping-station intakes will be minimal. These rivers have moreover ample dry-season flows and, since none are part of the Ganges system, are not susceptible to the effect of upstream developments on that river (see para. 6.80).

6.78 An analysis was made of the ultimate water requirements of the projects dependent on the low flow of the Brahmaputra River. These include all the new multi-purpose projects in Table 6.2 except for Karnafuli and Sangu. Add to these: Chandpur, construction of which is now underway; future project areas such as the Faridpur Unit of the Faridpur-Barisal project and the Sureawar project; and the areas that it is expected will be irrigated by low-lift pumps under the ADC program to the extent that such areas are not already included in the foregoing project areas. The total area requiring surface water from the Brahmaputra could on this basis reach about 3.6 million acres (net). Full utilization, allowing time for construction and attainment of full development would probably take at least ten years. Provided that -- as it now seems likely -- projects are planned on the basis of a "closed system" (one wherein waste water is recirculated, as at the Chandpur project) and making conservative assumptions regarding the future cropping pattern, water requirements during the critical months of February and April would come to about 20,000 cusecs. In comparison, the minimum monthly flow of the Brahmaputra River in February is 133,000 cusecs and in April it is 208,000 cusecs. Thus the diversion requirements would be about one-sixth of the minimum February flow and one-eighth of the minimum April flow. As regards cropping patterns, it was assumed that 1,100,000 acres or 30 percent of the 3,600,000 acres would be planted to boro rice, a crop with very high water requirements. This is conservative since as development proceeds, farmiers should tend to favor aus rice which is competitive with the same area of cultivation. Aus rice has a lower water requirement and its period of growth fits the seasonal rainfall pattern much better than does boro rice.

Special Investigations

6.79 The special technical investigations needed for the preparation of long-range multi-purpose surface water proJects and before decisions can be taken on the construction of large-scale barrages or double embankments are:

Ganges Barrage and Southwest Region Water Study Model of Southwest Region Flood Models Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex (Preliminary Planning Study) - 112 -

6.80 Ganges Barrage and Southwest Region Water Study: By far the largest water investments to date have been made in the Southwest Region. These amount to about US$200 million for the Coastal Embankment project and $60 million for the GK-Kushtia project. From the hydrologic point of view, the Southwest Region is by far the most complex. This complexity results from the following physical characteristics:

(a) There is a large tidal range -- on the order of 10 feet; tidal surges from typhoons may reach elevations 25 feet above mean sea level.

(b) There are large tidal estuaries which vary in width from one to several miles. Closure of these estuaries would provide benefits through elimination of saline-water penetration and through flood prevention, but would entail major engineering works reauiring careful study. The effect on fish ecology would also need to be evaluated.

(c) Flows enter the area from the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. The latter is much greater in volume than the former. When the Farakka Barrage in India is completed, the flow from the Ganges River may be reduced which would increase the saline-water penetration especially in the western part of the region.

(d) There is evidenre of a large groundwater potential particularly in the western and higher part of the region but actual avallability of groundwater needs quant ification The USGS groundwater study would assist in this effort.

(e) The region is interlaced with natural channels. These vary great-ly 4n - depth'dth, ar.d st-at of - …-aTnor decay. Many control structures would be needed to enhance urainage, water distr4bution, capture of return flows from upstream areas, navigation and fisheries development.

(f) EPWAPDA is proceeding with structural design of a major barrage across the Ganges R4ver; see para. 6.09. However, the barrage needs study from a functional view point which requires consideration of the auove LLve features followed by an analysis of the regional water balance. - 113 -

6.81 A period of a year should be spent in reconnaissance of the South- west Region as soon as this can be organized, possibly by January 1971. The reconnaissance should be followed by an approximately three-year detailed technical study. The purpose of the reconnaissance would be to outline and reach agreement on the terms of reference of the detailed study. The services of an agency with the experience on large tidal deltas should be sought to conduct both the reconnaissance and the detailed study. The cost of the 3-year study is estimated at $5.5 million. This is considered minimal and in the long run could be exceeded by a substantial amount. Uncertainty regarding the cost estimate stems largely from current lack of knowledge regarding the extent of surveys, measurements and subsurface explorations required. By the end of the reconnaissance it should be possible to firm up the cost!of the entire 4-year study.

6.82 Model of Southwest Region: An indispensable and analytical tool in carrying out the Southwest Region Water Study would be the setting up of a mathematical model. Such a model, including its operation, would cost about $2 million. Preliminary work now underway at Harvard University will be useful in planning such a mathematical model. See Chapter VIII on the Comorehensive Study.

6.83 Flood models: Despite the technical difficulties described above it is recognized that moving forward with a long-range program of flood nrotection should be expedited. It should also be recognized that since the problem is urgent there may not be sufficient time to collect all of the nhvsiral data normally reauired in the study of such complex technical problems. It may therefore be necessary to proceed with some works that would provide at least partial prototvnes such as the Dacca Southwest project, that can be observed in order to assist further planning and action. For projects such as the Brahmaputra Left Bank, however, the risk involved in construction of the prototype would be excessive. To assist in solving the technical problems and for evaluating the risks entailed in such a nrniert two helpful steps would be the use of flood models and the establishment of a Flood Consulting GFroun. The flood models would be of two types: physical and mathematical. The physical model would consist of a scale model of a re-resentative reach of the Rrahmaputra River; nrobab1y in its upoer portion between Bahadurabad and Sirajganj. Other reaches of the river might a1so be mdelled but at a later stag-e. There are serioUs techniral difficulties involved in the construction and operation of a physical model since, for exa-.,.le, it is tlmnknown as vett.whether the 11iiuviui_s that constitute the bed and banks of the river can satisfactorily be reproduced in a model. The same technical difficultv arises with respect to the verv large sediment movements (bed load and suspended load) of the river. Nevertheless, because of its cruc…al importance, an attempt to set up a physical model is considered justified.

6.84 A mathematical model would also present formidable technical problems . HLere agaiLn, an attempt i8 necessar. in view of the possible beneficial results and the very major works that might ultimately be consiuered Lfor conistructiLon. L' le proposedu physical and .L.atIheUm.ast iLcaJl models are estimated to cost $2.5 million. - 114 -

6.85 Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex: The construction of a complex involving a barrage across the Brahmaputra River near the international border with provision for diversion of flows to the Meghna Basin and to the Northeast and Southwest regions has been proposed from time to time. The purposes envisaged for this complex are: to provide partial relief of flooding alnng the Brahmanutra by diversion through the Old Brahmaputra River into the Sylhet depression of the Meghna Basin; to divert irrigation supplies to serve water-deficient areas of the Northwest and Southwest regionRs and: to generate hydro-electric power which could conserve scarce fuel resources and also provide energy which mnv hp rpnitirpd for npi"n rdrninnage nart1-Xil r1v in the Northest region.

6.86 Development of an adequate safe design for a barrage across the Br a.h.mapp utra River would ir.volve complex.-roblems, particullarly wth respe to hydrologic and geotechnical features. The design would have to incorporate extensive training works to Oeansvu stable cond i*4r,n so that the river would not change course. An alternative massive groundwater development ipara 6.2)\ would have t-o be stuA4ed concurrently. Extensi- Adea41A , C *LfV J U L A .VtL I.tILAt. U- t.f U n . , a t t 1 ... investigations would be required to resolve these and other technical matters as well aS t-o p-rovide relabl st etmates.

y 6 IT..Tn order to define nmnore specificall, the va.a elements and functions and relate these to projected requirements, a preliminary planning study will precede these detailed InvestIgatIons. Th4e prelimina-y phase would have an estimated cost of $5.0 million total equivalent (see Tables 6.1 al ) an' would be carred out4- corn.rrently -it-1, the related studies des- LU 3 *U uLI WOU L iC kO. U . .- '.IA L.'*ttf.Ua I I.J J.Y .ifILI. - .…oI cribed in paras 6.80 - 6.84 as well as with the Comprehensive Study (Chapter

VIII).VL * AllA±.L.L of.A-01. thesLILC_'C stdeMtLUU.L= Ww"L..Uol LJCe 6 uddb-"' looA rons-lti4n G_-rouak' described in the next section.

Flood Consulting Group

6.88 The scope and cost of the various investigations described above, particularly for tne fLooud ou'els and thLe BLrahmapULLarCLa-Ga Meghna Complex, are so vast that they would have to be planned with considerable care. For this reason, it would be desirable to set up a Consulting Group that would direct and review the investigations of the various related components. Tne Government of Pakistan recently requested the Bank to send a team of experts ("Flood Commission") to assist in the study of flood problems. It was felt that since this problem exceeds in complexity any situation of like character elsewhere in the world, experts of the highest calibre would be required in the various technical fields involved including hydrology, engineering, sedimentology, geomorphology, and geography. While the need for such a group is still felt, it is now believed that its scope should be broader and not limited to the flood problem alone. - 115 -

6.89 The proposed Flood Consulting Group would consider not only the overall flood problem but also the question of flood models and the study of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex. It would also be desirable for the Group to give some consideration to the effects of upstream developments in India. Such a Group might consist of 5 or 6 experts that would include the fields already mentioned but in addition would include a broad-gauged economist with experience in water resource development. Suggested terms of reference for such a Consulting Group which would be needed on a paLrt- time (about 1/3) basis during an initial 3-year period, are given in Chapter VIII. The cost of the Flood Consulting Group would be included in the costs estimated for the Comprehensive Study.

6.90 General Consultants to EPWAPDA are currently financed by IDS. and UNDP for the foreign exchange costs. The scope of work for the general consultants includes assistance to EPWAPDA with respect to basic policy, plans and programs related to water and power development and the development of an efficient organization to plan, finance, construct, operate and maintain water and power development projects. The general consultants also assist EPWAPDA in the drawing up of specific terms o0' reference for the projects' consulting firms, in their selection, and in review of qualifications of the specialist personnel actually assigned. Additional financing of the general consultants will be required for the last quarter of this fiscal year, and in the coming years when it is anticipated that their work-load will increase with the expanded program being proposed. Costs have been indicated in Table 3.1.

Basic Data

6.91 Much basic data are already available in East Pakistan on hydrology; tonoaranhv. soils. agriculture and economics. Presently available data were obtained through programs of EPWAPDA and the Survey of Pakiatan (with UNDP Runnort? and throuvh feasibilitv RtudieR for specific projects. These data are generally adequate in the short rur, for the nlannine of water nrolects. However. for lona-range planning and for projects in addition to those in the Action Program, as well as for snme snpec-al fnvestigstion.. additional data will he needed in the near future.

6.92 Surface Water Hydrology: Although extensive work has been (lone in gaging of streams, murh remAins to he done in reviuwino historical records to eliminate unreliable data, correcting errors, and establishing nrnoeadutrea for vrnording and ret-rieVAl of recorda when needed for hvdro1ogic studies. There is also a need for additional training of Pakistani personnel in gaging large r_vers and mnre modern" equilpment will be needed for this work. Accurate hydrologic measurements are also dependent upon re-calibration of measuring instruments at regular intervals. Thare ia at nreae.nt no onperatinal facility in East Pakistan for this. The additional program for surface water h.Ayd: n y -. ,muatbe undertaken now to supply data needed for lona-range flood protection plans and to permit comprehensive planning as in the Southwrest Region anAd for walt:er-bbalance 8at.A-lea. =116..L±U -

6.93 Groundwater Hydrology: Groundwater data are adequate to proceed with the ADC tubewell programs (with dispersed well spacing) and may be adequate for first phases of the EPWAPDA tubewell projects. Hydrogeologic studies will include the determination of aquifer characteristics (such as area, depth, material, specific yield and recharge), well spacing and other factors pertinent to intensive groundwater development. Such studies have been programmed by the U.S. Geological Survey to start in mid-1970 and to be completed in five years. The USGS studies will provide data tor specitic projects but, as the projects proceed, the USGS studies will also make use of data generated by the specific projects.

6.94 Aerial Mapping: Work should begin as soon as possible on a quality aerial mapping survey of East Pakistan. This survey will be an essential source of basic data for flood protection planning and the more comprehensive regional and multiple-purpose developments now being proposed. Information from this survey will be especially vital to the proper examination of double embankment flood control projects, regional studies such as that proposed for the Southwest Region and special investigations such as the one for a Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna Complex. Intensified agriculture programs will also involve use of aerial photography. Pakistani personnel should be trained and equipped to make necessary resurveys as needed in the future. As an essential tool in the study of embankments and river-training works, photographs of the main rivers botlh during the flood season and during the dry season will be needed so as to obtain information regarding the shifting of the riverbanks and streambeds. The survey will also provide basic data on topography, extent of flooding, location and width of waterways and land capability information.

6.95 While most of East Pakistan is mapped with one-foot contours at a scale of 4 inches to the mile, and some to large scales, the maps vary greatly in quality. The nature of the proposed projects is such that accurate locations of drainageways and elevations, and land ownership are of vital importance. Topographic details and property boundaries have to be determined exactly for these reasons. It has been found necessary to map prolect areas at a scale of 16 inches to the mile. The proposed aerial mapping program is designed to facilitate this work. The aerial photograph and mapping program is now under consideration by UNDP and should proceed at the earliest possible data. This program will consist basically of the following:

(a), The rpnhotograDhy of the entire Province of East Pakistan at medium scale, principally for air photo intenrprtation nurooses:

(b) The photography at larae scale of each area scheduled to be mapped at 16 inches to the mile for project purposes in conformity with the mapping schedulel

(c) The supply of moder. equipment and training of East Pakistan personnel to form an aerial photographic unit capable of meeting future requirements. - 117 -

6.96 Geotechnical Explorations: Soils testing and analyses used in design of project works is carried out by the materials testing section of the hydraulic research laboratory. A considerable increase in capacity will be needed to meet anticipated requirements. Training of personnel in modern techniques is essential, and additional equipment will be needed in the laboratory and in the field. Training of personnel should be accomplished in East Pakistan to a maximum extent. However, some engineers will require additional training in laboratories outside East Pakistan.

6.97 Construction Materials: Lack of suitable construction materials for river training works and control structures is one of the major problems facing the water development program. Presently available information suggests that concrete aggregates are principally found in North Bengal and along the Sylhet-Assam border. Supplies of suitable sand are also available at a number of locations throughout the Province. Anart from outerona of near-surface bedrock in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the only known potential sources of rock in East Pakistan are at a depth of about 600 feet in the Parbatinur-Rangnur area and even deeDer in the coal and limestone deposit region of Jamalganj in the Bogra District. An organi7ed explnration for ronntruction materials and consideration of the processing, transport, and costs of providing materials at the job ait-eRa ahnsild he indpertaken soon an that the knowledgve gained can be made use of Ln the expanded development program being projected for East Pak4atan. Ifnfomatinn nhta4ned shnoild be of mnter-ifr value t-n the total construction industry in the Province.

6.98 Seismology: East Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic T^…-iteddata indicates…or.e. that a large n,mber of shallow and intermediate depth tremors have been felt within the Provincial boundaries since seias4c data were frast collected in the Indian sub-continent aro-nd the turn of the century. Historical evidence attests to the tremendous InA Afluence of th- nV 4 t4tiD 4 thf- anvn 1tj4 aenthalik- the avul- sion of the Brahmaputra into the Jamuna some 200 years ago believed to have beenU triOe,C by a.. ear:hquake, ahd tbe tremenAous landslide into t!he Brahmaputra Valley in Assam in 1950 which has caused considerable aggra- dation of the bed oc the river an(d is probably still affectIng the behavior of the Jamuna in East Pakistan. Large hydraulic structures ri.us't bie IUU~Ldeslgr.edLCUAL~L~U U~ 16U:LU -withstridLW.LLI~LULU erhucLL LAB j14 ak. e focesLUL L.=Op ULLZrd-ihu W.L.L.LLLUL.a dqs4vLI pertinent information, over-design for safety can result in substantial excess costs. To provide rational criter'a for design, it i8 proposed to obtain expatriate advice on analyses of aata and the procurement of seismographs for strategic location in the Pro-vince. Presen,tly, the only seismograph location is in Chittagong and it is understood that the data have not been fully analyzed.

6.99 Geomorpnology ana Sedimentology: East Pakistan is traversed by large rivers carrying heavy loads of sediment. These rivers are constantly modifying their course and changing their cross section. - 118 -

Successful river training for flood control and construction of water regulating facilities is dependent upon properly indentifying these conditions utilizing up-to-date techniques of analysis in the field of river morphology, sedimentology and fluvial hydraulics. The importance of carrying out a detailed study of all existing information, including aerial photography, and providing for the best experts available to review these data cannot be over-emphasized. Several universities have wide experience and staffing expertise to assist Pakistan staff in learning modern methods and techniques of analysis in sedimentology, geomorphology, and fluvial hydraulics. Their laboratories include facilities for testing and analyzing specific field conditions as necessary. A number of Pakistani engineers should receive fundamental training under this program. - 119 -

CHAPTER VII

RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE

7.01 East Pakistan's new agricultural technology can promote agricultural develonment only if supported by a strong rural infrastructure program including rural organization, construction and water management. ThIs nrogram's aims are: to organize farmers into viable economic units so they can take advantage of agricultural technology and water programs; to (reate nhvsical and water facilities necessarv for a nroductive rural economy; and to provide a more equitable distribution of income.

7.02 To understand why farmers must be more effectively organized to improve naf- Pnklatan's agrIcul£ure ne must take a brlef l at her rural social structure. Over 90% of her population lives on farma. Most of this populatlon wjna littla lan.d : AT wnft,va ne ai-V nr loass 70% owns between one and seven acres; and only 10% owns more than 7 acres.

Thus, 90%n Of East Pa1k4istn' fer4rers otr n mr than see.en acre n 1 nLn This 90% has such small incomes and landholdings that as individuals, th ey ^an tsake 1i tt1 e advan t a ge o f *t he Gar nm abviente1,-r^gA 4A for seeds, fertilizer, pesticides and water.

7.03 To increase agricultural production, East Pakistan's severe droug5hits a.Ad flooAs must bU effect4 c --- : 1i1vely . ne way of Aolr, this is to organize farmers into irrigation groups. As we have seen Ln tShe Wlater deve'lopment,t chalapter, t'he Government h'as als0 buegun t-o IVu ildl large engineering projects to solve these hydrologic problems.

7.04 To harness the energies of 13 million landless people for agricultural development, to enable the 47 million on small farms to finance and spread the new agricultural technology, and to implement wLdUepreadU water muanagemUent;, 3s-6 PaKistan must en.gage in an Wxte,sivei rural infrastructure program. The improvement of rural infrastructure is effLJcted through three progra91W. the R UU.lL'Lrno rougrLam, the LIiaiia Irrigation Program and the Integrated Rural Development Program (cooperatives').

7.05 The programs for developing rural infrastructure are based on flexible, pragmatic principles evolved from the continued analysis of rural problems and experimental work carriead Ou Dy the Academy ror Rural Development at Comilla:

(a) Any system of irrigation, drainage and water control must emphasize operations at the farm level and include the following elements (see Chapter VI): - 120 -

1. a means of planning and implementing the constructioned maintenance of small local drainage, irrigation and flood protection works;

2. a means of collecting information developed at the local level, and aggregating it at the 'rovincial level for use in planning large- scale works;

3. a means of organizing farmers for collective use of irrigation water before the water distribution system is created.

(b) An effective level of administrative organization must hp t1ontifipri fnr thp nt'rneo nf Aetahlsh1na asupnnlvy service and training systems for agriculture and for

(c) Rcauiip indiuidna'1 farmer3 are; for the most part; 80 poor and have such small holdings, a way must be found to form~ themin rto units thst av~ rrecnm14eAnh1 viable.

(AN Cre-atioen of e r.-lyon.t. nopportivn4tie& -for lalndless laborers is essential. This can be accomplished throug-, wi4Aonespread 1 bor- in.,iai prvo4esa to% Adeve- lop rural roads and water management facilities.

(e) Leaders, chosen by the local people and supported Lby te.hnical ko.wledge, Alfla.^ial reources, supplicW and services of the Government, must inform and mobilize- Ile rral populationU for Aevelopmer.t.

Ine Rural WuJ-w rLsogram

i.0-uto T'ne Easta akistan Rural workss Program was asLao.ixhneu in 19yo after a successful, year-long pilot project in Comilla Thana. Under the Works Program, funds were aLllocated to local councils to enable them to implement labor intensive construction projects within their jurisdic- tion. Tne Basic Democracies and Local Government Department which admi- nistered the Program, limited the types of work than could be carried out to the construction of roads, drainage canals, flood embankments and a limited number of local office buildings. Detailed administrative and technical instructions were given to the local councils and a system of public information and government audits was instituted to minimize the misuse of funds.

7.07 The Program was remarkably successful. The physical accomplish- ments represented a major increase in the facilities of the rural areas. The employment created through the Program sharply curtailed the rise in - 121 -

rural ,employment and helped raise rural wage rate in t s One study which quantified the benefits of the roads, drainage and em- Uan1LLnts cos-acJ.Led unler the WorkI -rogra* calculated thaat the P1ro= gram yielded a rate of return of 57%. In summary, the Works Program Ueuonstrae.eU thLat it coult ruaNKe ar, 'Ju-por.tant corntriLu tLL n to06 LLI e rc,- vinces' development in the following ways:

(a) It is the only means of rapidly constructing and maintaining a large network of farm to market roads, a network of small and medium size drains, and small flood control works througnout the Province. No agency of the Provincial Government has the capacity to carry out this type of small-scale work over the entire Province.

(b) The cost of rural construction through the Works Program is about two-thirds of the cost of equivalent facilities constructed by Government agencies.

(c) It is a sound investment in the rural areas, helping to raise rural incomes and monetize the rural economy, thus preparing the way for the transition to a modern commercial agriculture.

(d) It is the least expensive means of creating a large number of employment opportunities and the onl.y Government Program directly benefiting the landless laborers.

7.08 From its inception in 1962 until 1967, the Rural Works Program was highly effective. The political difficulties the Program has since encountered necessitate administrative adjustment, but the Program has demonstrated that it is the least cost and the most effective means of building rural infrastructure and creating employment. Rural roads of the type built by the Works Program are essential to the movement of agricultural inputs and produce. Small local drainage systems are important in any provincial water management program, and local flood protection works would eventually form part of a Province-wide flood control system. The Works Program is the effort that has successfully executed these tasks in East Pakistan. It is essential that the Program be continued but overhauled administratively. The Works Program, including the TIP Program, is currently being funded at a level of Rs 200,000,000 annually. The level of funding should be increased by at least 50% and local level planning should be integrated more effectively into large water control projects. - 122 -

Thana Level Administration

7.09 The concept of the Thana as a unit of development administration is an innovation of the 1960's that was implemented along with the Works Program. Prior to 1960 the Thana, with an average size of 125 square miles and a popuiation of 160,000 was tne iowest unit of police administration. In experiments at Comilla, the Thana proved to be the most effective unit for the implementation of rural development programs. The reasons for the effectiveness of the Thana level organization are fourfold:

(a) Size -- the hnana is sufficiently large to make the planning and the implementation of projects within its boundaries technically efficient (there are 413 Thanas in East Pakistan).

(b) Cost -- Government agencies can afford to assign an officer to the Thana from the technical departments concerned with development, such as Agriculture, Education or Family Planning.

(c) Communication -- it is sufficiently small so that any Thana resident can easily travel to Thana headquarters and return home in a day; a broad spectrum of the people of the area can participate in Thana activities and identify with its work.

(d) Economic Organization -- the Thana is the established unit of economic and commercial activities. Thana headquarters is normally the site of the principal market of the area. It is also the location of commercial services, supply outlets and the transportation center of the area.

7.10 The Thana Council, consisting of elected members from the area and the representatives of the Government assigned to the Thana, is the chief policy-making body. The Government officers are coordinated by a Circle Officer (Development), a member of the Civil Service who is responsible for coordinating the work of Government officers in the Thana and for overseeing the planning and implementation of the development program in the Thana. The transformation of the Thana from a unit of policy administration to the primary unit of rural development is sym- bolic of the change in the Government's priorities with respect to national development.

7.11 The growing importance and efficiency of the Thana as an AAministrative unit during the 1960's and the shift of rasouresa to that level of administration can be seen in the trend of the Works Program allnrath.nng in the 19608'. AvailablA ntat1itin8 Celarly indicate a shift of focus for rural administration from the District, tradi- tio.all'y the pri4mary, unit -f fieAld ardT4n4ativot4nn eAeLn tn the Thn.a.- - 123 -

7.12 In 1964, the concept of the Thana Training and Development Center was introduced. The Thana Center which contains offices for Government officials, class and meeting rooms, has been constructed with funds from the Works Program. Workshops for the maintenance of irrigation pumps and fertilizer and seed warehouses have been constructed adjacent to the Center. As a result, the Thana has become a center of information, supplies and services for the rural resident. It has become the lowest unit of rural planning.

7.13 The Thana is vital to any expanded agriculture and water program, especially as regards pump groups, the distribution of agricultural :Ln- puts, extension work, rural infrastructure -- in particular, minor irrigation works and farm to market roads -- and training programs for the farmer.

The Thana Irrigation Program

7.14 One of the great ironies of East Pakistan has always been that in a river delta area with numerous rivers and a monsoon climate, no crops could be grown five months of the year for lack of water. Although 2.8 billion rupees have been allocated for water development during the first three five-year plan periods, only recently has substant'al new land been brought under the irrigation.

7.15 During the Pilot Works Proiect in Comilla there was considerable interest in doing irrigation work as part of the Rural Works Program. However, problems ranging from water utilization to pump maintenance and repayment rates cropped up and it was decided not to include irrigation in the initial Works Proqram. In 1962, the Comilla Acadeffy began an experimental irrigation program and from this emerged in 1966 a carefully teated model for the Thana Irrigation Program.

7.16 The Thana Irrigation Program is based on the idea of liftirng water from the Province's numerous rivers, canals and swamps to irrigate land i_mediatelv adlacent to the water source. To utilize water sunnlied in this manner by low-lift pumps, farmers are organized into irrigation groups. EAch group, onre organized by the loral council membeFFr on the group's own initiative, is required to elect a group chairman, and selert a npmn onerator and a model farm from among the memhernhi4p They are then eligible to apply for a pump. Pumps are provided to groups ._nder the conditions thAt the groun' i lAnd cover At least fifty acres and that they agree to pay the established anziual rental fees and costs of nltmn onperatin= Rentnl feee are eabAhlished on a gradAuateA ca.le beginning at Rs 150 for the first year and increasing to Rs 1,400 by the fifth year. The fina1 yerar's fee 4-1QFa oe 0 ^^01"F p"- ment of providing pump maintenance services. - 124 -

7.17 The Thana Irrigation Program (TIP) is vital to the low-lift pump and tubewell programs and is being incorporated into multi-purpose projects such as Chandpur. It is particularly important with respect to the questions of organizing farmers and recovering operational maintenance costs (see paras 6.21 and 6.22).

7.18 The Thana Irrigation Program is also important because it makes a major contribution to the solution of unemployment during the winter (dry) season. Irrigation creates additional land for cultivation. This land needs additional labor. A study of unemployment by the University of Dacca indicated that one acre of rice in one season requires 60 man-days of labor. Calculating from this, the Thana Irri- gation Program in 1968-69 created over 25 million man-days (or 101,951 man-vears) of new agricultural employment. These employment opportunities will grow as the Program, including projects to provide irrigation, expands. The 40.000 low-lift pumps which the Government intends to field by 1972 will create 480,000 man-years of employment in agriculture; nlus the onerating and maintenance iobs necessary for the Program.

7.19 Comnared with other efforts at irrigation, the Thana Irriga- tion Program has been highly successful. The projects to EPWAPDA and its nrpFeeesor agencies (discussed in more detail in Chapter VI) have, through irrigation, added 94,563 acres of land to that under cropping in the Tlat ten vears. The cost of this, if 25% of water development cost for the three Plan periods are attributed to irrigation, has been Ra 720.24 million. The farmers have borne some of this cost. There is a clear economic comparison between the cost per acre of land brought under cuivairAtion bv irrigation. through the large capital intensive type projects, and through the Thana Irrigation Program. Government costs in the Thana Irrigation Program amounted to RR 141 ner acre irrigated- while large project irrigation cost has been Rs 7,609 per acre. These figures are in no way indicative of future WAPDA and An. pronectQ The figures do indicate, however, that the Thana Irrigation Program is so far the Government'Is most successful irriigat4n effort 7.2 I)At. is ir.portant to ar.lyze brief lyr Twhy, th-9a. r ation 1. '10 T.. JL I...--.n - . h,4a1vTJ the Thana ivvrritr.v Program was so successful. Two factors seem to stand out. First, TIP began1- by ensuriLng tat far.er.. demandA~~kAi.A for water eeX.,rrxis,4SteA. . No waters~ was provided until the farmers themselves took the initiative to form water- user groups and agreedu to reet a poLrtLion olf th15e cost. Seco.dly, technology of the Program was sJmple; the technical details were carefully worked out in auvance, anu the systeu was something the farmers could understand and control themselves.

7.21 TIP's successful method of organizing farmers into pump groups is now being used in other irrigation projects. WArPDA 'as adopted ie for its Northern Tubewell project and ADC is using this system for its most recent tubewell project. In the future, the Tnana Irrigation Program is expected to become the organizing and operating system for most irrigation projects. - 125 -

7.22 The Thana Irrigation Program's full potential will not be realized until its administrative problems are solved. Although the administrative system for the Program was well designed, problems are e-merglng as the program arows. Coordination between the three agencies administering the Program (the Local Government and Agriculture Depart- ments and the Agric-ultural Dlevalnpment Cornoration) must be strengthened. Problems have also emerged in the maintenance and agricultural training a-sercta nf the Program.. Some tarhnic-al ass4itanre will be ne.essarv for the expanded TIP role.

Integrated Rural Development Program (cooperatives)

7.23 The Integrated Rural Development Program is the only one of these programs described here that hasrnot yet been .plem.ented. How- ever, it has been extensively tested at Cdmilla and is proposed for 4 D.an4 44J ... A aA. an a a n n 4..a-4 .ma . 4.-.. T..1U. 1 A. ajU.cv.tI. .JVw. * ^Mzov'A *.LVw^ 7O&W M*5ahL**af5 -- a, a 1970. The Program is basic to the concept of rural development and agricu'tur.. roalrt:h unA.er Easta'Padsta.'ns conoa n af4.4 s -11 ---agmereA landholdings, extremely high population densities and low per capita income. Its purpose is to organize village agricultural cooperatives and to create farming and marketing units of an economically viable size. T.hL-eProgramu does r.ot aim1 st comUunal iarCLL.&rbu: at aU coop rai sha-rIA4L of agricultural inputs and economic functions.

7.24 Under the Program, a two tier system of village agricultural cooperatives supp"lies rU UUsVeLrvcu byWa J8lruI cLIenLLal 4ZUWFUaL.LVU WUU.LU be established. In its initial phases the Integrated Rural Development Program will concentrate on establishing a syUtem of agr1cultural credit and savings. Traditionally, East Pakistan has had three sources of agricultural credit. First, it has taccavi loans from the Agriculture Department, which are tantamount to relief grants distributed in limited quantities by agricultural officers. Second, it has loans througn the Provincial Cooperative Bank to Union Multi-purpose cooperative societies. Inese societies are tne 'uwest ex1sting level'L ocooperatILve5 anU are generally controlled by one or more wealthy rural citizens. The loans to cooperative societies are rarely repaid. Tniru, Ia Mhs coMmercial loans from the Agricultural Development Bank whose customers are the large farmers and agricultural businesses. With all these systems, there was still no-widespread, reliable system of agricultural credit for the small farmer.

7.25 Once cooperatives have been formed under the Integrated Rurai Development Program they are required to begin a program of regular savings, and they also become eligible for credit through the Thana Central Cooperative Association. Most of the credits become production credits but loans for other purposes, such as secured loans for agricuitural equipment or animals. The terms of credit for farmers vary according to the purpose of the loan. The State Bank makes loans to each Thana on a 25 year term with a five year grace period. - 126 -

7.26 After the cooueratives are firmly established and their loan operations are working effectively, they will probably begin to process and mArket Aoricultural nroduces. If the pattern follows the one In Comilla, the Thana association will begin to store and mill foodgrains nrndutedp bv its constituent village cooneratives. It m8tht mAke ArrAne- ments for rapid marketing facilities so that farmers could produce vege- t-Ahlea for itrhban ITritketA. It mieht a1o organize noultrv And daAiru ro- duction. Operations will vary from place to place depending on the pro- Adtiotn traditinns and nana ities of the area.

1 7.27 By encouragIng members to 8ave, rural surp l itas m bnh cptred and productively re-invested. The savings of the village cooperatives w.i4ll be 4 -"^"rftnt fnor astorag and npnroaea=- AnnA nther ruvral 4Tindutrale.4 ….~~~~~~~------… -dut i 7.28the U.dr Ir.tegrated Rutral novolnmanrt Pvrogram, Coopeative -- nd ... - …-.. …0- ,r.o Project Officers will be trained for each Thana. The Project Officer will be respo..sible for a-si4ti4.g in the-organiza4ior4- of village------ratives. Where village irrigation groups exist, they will provide the nuclu fo h ilg'scoeaie Ir. oth.er azreOa the bwenefits ofA cooperative membership will be explained and villagers will have the choice of forrrng cooperatives. As they are formd, each rnew village cooperative will elect a manager responsible for operating the organization anA for enforcing savings.

&.U7 OA,C J. Allana Il C , j AV i nI _e uy V. AOX4 will be the supervising and training agency in the initial stages. Subsequertly, it will be the nucleus for Thana-wide economic activities both at the cooperatives and ,Thana level.

7.30 There is summarized below a series of indices prepared by the Comilla Academy for Rural Development coruparFng Co-illa Thana with the neighboring Thana of Chandina where no cooperatives have been established. Prior to the Comilla experiment Cha1din. wazs Xegardeu an a richer Thana and the soil in Chandina is still regarded as richer. The comparisons given are the percentages of cnange between 1964 and 1969. Chandina Comilla

1. Economically active population -5 11 2. Percentage of literacy 58 107 3. Number of modern azricul- tural implements No change 700 4. Numher of houses with tin roofs 48 89

.= nAuAntitv of naddv nroduced per family 10 58 A. Quannr tt nf naddv nrnducAd per acre 10 96 7. nianar4rA nf paddty, asoA per acre 7 33 - 127 -

7.31 Although this comparison is encouraging, most of the benefits of the I'ntegrated Rural Development Project will only appear in the long-run since it takes a long time to change institutions. However, there will be some immediate returns including the farmers' increased use of commercially available agricultural inputs and their increased rural investment.

7.32 it is estimated that if it takes nine years to establish cooperatLves throughout the Province, the cost of administration and construction of physical facilities will be about Rs 417.7 million. in addition, there will be a large requirement for agricultural credit presently estimated at Rs 2,065 million, and if the Program is successful the demand for credit may exceed this estimate. The State Bank of Pakistan has already indicated a willingness to supply the credit.

7.33 Part of the Province-wide expansion of the Comilla type cooperative will be financed by Government grants amounting to 44 Crore over a nine-year period. There will be a non-recurring grant of 2 lakhs per thana for the construction of office buildings and housing. There will be an annual grant of 1 lakh per thana for salaries and other recurring expenses.

7.34 The second major part of the program is a supervised grant scheme. It is intended that during the Fourth Five-Year Plan 119 Crore would be loaned by the State Bank or other sources to the Provincial Cooperative Bank. These funds would then be apportioned to the Thana Cooperative Federation which in turn passes on funds to the primary cooperatives. The latter would then extend short-term credit to farmers at L5% interest. It is estimated that the average annual cost of the Comilla replication program would be 30 Crores over the Fourth Five Year Plan.

7.35 The problems of a Province-wide Integrated Rural Development Program are not yet fully known. However, the experience at Comilla laas provided much information. If this rural development program is to succeed it will require adequate funding, suport from other agricultural and rural development programs, and tough, flexible administration. - 128 -

CHAPTER VIII

COMPREHENSIVE STUDY AND FLOOD CONTROL INVESTIGATIONS

8.01 The Action Program that has been presented in this document is a further step towards "the long term goal" which is the implementation of an agricultural and water development program adequate to the needs of East Pakistan. A Comprehensive Study is proposed to determine as quickly as feasible the optimum development of agriculture and water resources including an effective flood control program. Such a plan for the development of East Pakistan's water and agricultural resources would involve the systematic assimilation of the large quantities of data now becoming available. Since much of these data and resultant findings are interrelated in very comnlex fashion. the basic methodolozv would need to consider the nature of these interrelationships and their relevance to the objectives of the Pakistan development plans and to the requirements of the benefits expected from specific projects. A three-year time framework for conducting the study is considered ambitious but feasible. However. ziven the vast complexities of the problem, it should be realized from the outset that this time framework may have to be lengthened and that this study will only form the foundation for sound future planning and execution. This chapter disrusnes the scone of such a study, outlines possible terms of reference and indicates organizational and administrative aspects.

8.02 The pragmatic orientation of the study must be emphasized. The stiidy iQ resigned to heein to orovide the analvtical hasi-s for the resrnit,- tion of problems such as floods and cyclones, for the formulation of nrpliciea for the devielnnment of nrolentq- and nrineinallv for findinc the avenue to improve in significant absolute terms the living standards of the people of the Province-

e .,. a - A Mo rIS r,Ar. 1 tv

8.03l The1pri lm.a.r objectives ofthe Comprehensive Study are: i) to .analyze the Aevelopment potentiaol of eacmho area onrfth,-Le

Province and the specific regional constraints in East Pak-istar, in re'a-'on to love..rnment- objectives; 4r L iL L L .±A.U L. %YUVL IL. ILL UJ L.LLV

ii) to synthesize from the various investigations anud research programs, from the underlying data base, and from fundamental policy decisions, a comprehensive developm,et program for theI agriculture and water sector of the East Pakistan economy; - 129 -

iii) to formulate from the above synthesis and analysis a longer term action program consistent with a macro-economic development framework that relates the development program for agriculture and water to the other dimensions of the economy, provides the basis for an overall development strategy, and traces the total system effects of agricultural development.

8.04 The study would both integrate the already identified invesitiga- tions and research programs into the comprehensive program framework, as well as identify areas for research and in-depth analysis and provide the structure and scope of such further investigations. It would also provide policy makers with a tool that could test various policy assumptions, and determine the sensitivity of critical elements of the longer term action program to policy changes and to changes in exogenous variables. It would thus become an important element in a dynamic planning/programming chain that would provide a meaningful link between policy makers and planners.

8.05 Methodologically the study would be organized along regional. lines and this regional emphasis would recognize the significant differences between one region and the other as regards hydrology, climate, soils, r'opu- lation densities, land available for cultivation, basic potential for agriculture, basic need for water control, potential for industrial and urban development, and differences in infrastructure development. This regional emphasis would highlight the important spatial and location constraints, and would integrate the development potentials of each region into the Province-wide development strategy. The UNDP land capability survey has already made a start in identifying regions and sub-regions which have each a distinct potential for agriculture development and wherein the development of an integrated water control program is vital if the differing capabilities of each region or sub-region are to be fully utilized and properly merRed.

8.06 The regional emphasis would permit a study of the need for regional growth centers and their relation to agriculture development in terms of providing a central market, and a financial and transportation/distribution center. It would involve a study of the implications of the Provincewide development strategy on the differential growth of the various regions and sub-regions of the Province, point out inconsistencies in the strategy and trace through the imDlication of increasing pressures on land on the future land-use patterns of each region and sub-region and of the whole Province.

8.07 This proposed Comprehensive Study would not only interact with the various surveys and investigations now being carried out. but also with policy malkers, to ensure that the Action Program does indeed evolve in a realistic manner. The Study would afford nolicy makers a tool with whLch to test various policy assumptions and to determine the sensitivity of rritical elements of the annual develonment programc to changes in noLisvy and to changes in other exogenous variables. The Study would also encompass - 130 -

the reconnaissance phase of various detailed technical and economic investigations, such as tentative identification of promising regions for immediate development or further investigations as necessary to formulate the short and medium term input programs, an overall flood model and a South- west region study. The Study would further include project preparation efforts in the agricultural inputs programs, as well as preparation of a framework for agricultural research programs e.g. in fisheries, livestock, groundnuts, cashews, pulses and other high protein vegetables and fruits, etc. An important adjunct to the Study would be the models being constructed by the Harvard University group because they offer a means of testing and understanding the key variables and constraints in optimum project development. Built in increasing complexity, they will be used to test the internal consistency of the evolving program itself. It is the purpose of the Study to develop the background of all the key factors becoming available and their relationships into feasible and sound development proposals.

8.08 A distinction is drawn between a number of specific technical investigations, e.g. aerial mapping, soil surveys, etc., as well as the numerous final engineering and feasibility studies discussed in Chapter VI of this report and this Comprehensive Study. They are intimately related and some of the key data required will come from that work.

8.09 The reconnaissance phase of the regional investigations for the four regions of the Province will be an important part of the ComDrehensive Study. In the Southwest region, owing to the highly complex hydrology, a number of special studies will be needed including the Ganges Barrage and Southwest Region Water Study and the model of the Southwest region. The reconnaissance phase of the first study would be carried out as Dart of the Comprehensive Study; this could start January 1, 1971 and will require about a year (see para 6.81). The model of the Southwest region could start about 6 months later (see para 6.82). Ultimately, planning in the Southwest region would also be affected by one other soecial study which has been described in Chapter 6, namely, the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex preliminary olanning studv: this would start about Anril 1. 1971 and would he au{ded to a large extent by a Flood Consulting Group (described below). There are two nther snerial effnrts rnncernrng the Sonuthwest rgo4ni t-hat t.wi1l be concurrent with the Comprehensive Study. One concerns the large Coastal Emhankment area (3 million acres -- Area 2 in Mon 2) here $200 m4ll4on has already been invested but only for flood prevention against oceanic tides and where large benefits are obtainable for relatively low capItal investments in interior water management. The special effort required in this area was described in para 6.46. The second concerrs the Barisal project which covers an area of 1.5 million acres in the southeastern portion of th L-SeSout*hwest region (Area 14 -in Uap 'Here, agair, the Large potential of the area could be realized at relatively low cost because of the avail.V@ab"iJity of Uample wrat.er supply ar,d 1lW Ud=epth of floo.diLrug. A feasibility study for the region is expected to be started in early 1971. - 131 -

MA1 Tn the NIorthwes--t regior pa_----- 632 la 334) go w.d-w atr u .J LU #L&A ~L L.LWMM L. &=6.LW.LL kO = X CLOLU~ . .JS. %.IJ L . .J-/ , ~* W 5 development is already proceeding under two tubewell projects and will. proceedu further dUuriLngLULLI~LUL.L1~ theL1~I.UL~±L. current L'fisaL.5L~L yeaY=a (1970-fflM71)±LI± inLULL~ thef L&= fo.&WIM of 3 EPWAPDA tubewell projects. The Northwest region will also receive attent.oL on Lrough, thL'e USGS-assisted groundwater investigations. Thle region will also be affected by the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex preliminary planning stuuy Just described. Coordination of these variouU efforts concerning the Northwest region would in the first instance be carried out by EPWAPDA (especially the Hydrologic and the Groundwater Directorates of that agency) assisted by its general consultants (see para 6.90) and in tne second by the Flood Consulting Group.

8.11 in the Northeast region, the so-called Brahmaputra Left Bankc Embankment project presents serious technical difficulties and requires riood models as a preliminary step (see paras 6.83 and 6.84). Before such models can be set up, preparation mainly involving reconnaissance will be required and this will be included as part of the Comprehensive Study. In the Southeast region, an IDA Credit covering final engineering and project preparation for the Karnafuli and Muhuri projects includes funds for a reconnaissance of the over 1 million acres in the Comilla- Noakhaii and Little Feni project areas; almost all the Southeast region will thus be covered. On the other hand, synthesis and evaluation, including comparisons with developments in the other regions will be needed and these will be carried out as part of the Comprehensive Study.

8.12 The need for 'water balance studies" described in paras 6.75 and 6.76 is outlined below. As additional hydrologic information becomes progressively available, it will be necessary to carry out such studies and then to periodically refine and upgrade them. At least one such Study should be carried out during the period of the Comprehensive Study.

Flood Control Planning

8.13 The Comprehensive Study includes the reconnaissance phase for several key special investigations leading to flood control planning (see paras 8.09 to 8.11 above) incorporating the following points:

A. Analysis of the Flood Problem

i) Preliminary analysis of the nature and scope of the flood problems posed by the Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna river region and their tributaries;

ii) Adequacy of the present data base for flood protection planning; - 132 -

iii) Suitability of mathematical delta models such _- c' nfran AUll XA-I T_ I.1 - - -1 3 - I 1' as t1le OVU ;I r J :rUL LOv LL.± Le U&LV%JUL in tIAe clast Pakistan case.

B. Reconnaissance Investigations of the Flood Problem in Major Rivers

i) Mobilization and start of a field program, in accordance with data base deficiencies identified and analyzed above;

ii) Preliminary planning study of a Branmaputra barrage, its hydrologic effects and its agricultural potential, and assessment of need for further investigation concurrent with groundwater studies in the Northwest;

C. Major Flood Investigations

This involves the detailed definition and scope of the special investigat4ions which would draw upon, both the reconnaissance investigations and the analyses of area development potential. Tnis includes preparation of detailed terms of reference for:

i) Mathematical and Physical Modeling of the flood problem including Brahmaputra Left Bank Embankment in the Northeast region;

ii) Ganges Barage Study -- its effects on agriculture, flood control, ecology of fish life, etc.;

iii) Southwest Region Water Study -- further investigation of requirement for flood protection, development of the groundwater potential, etc.;

iv) Brahmaputra Barrage -- further investigation of feasibility should preliminary investigation indicate economic potential;

v) Brahmaputra Left Bank Embankment -- further feasibility studies, in light of preliminary analysis above.

D. Special Hydrological Surveys

Water-Balance Appraisal

i) Preliminary analysis of hydrologic data as it becomes available through field reconnaissance; - 133 -

i1) AssAMsmAnt of need fnr further hydrnlgir studies in different areas;

iii) Preliminary analysis of the system water- hAlAn-e a plude to mrr dailed 'wAter- balance studies";

iv) Preparation of detailed terms of reference for such studies.

Grou-wndwater Survey. Base on nasis of develment potential, and based on preliminary analysis of hydrologi^ Aata:

i) Ide.tifiation of de-led in,_igatio.s in regions other than the Southwest;

ii) Assessment of data deficiencies;

iii) Formulation of detailed definition and terms of

referenceL & A~1 L. 4for A~.Jfurther L LILL grourt.w-aterWL L JLV~L~jLJL&investigations L. in the Northwest.

Analysis of Inter-sectoral Links

8.14 This aspect of the Comprehensive Study will provide the necessary linkages between the development potential of the agriculture and water sector and the developments that are needed in the other sectors of the economy. The most important aspect or tnis inter-sectorai analysis is tne evaluation of the transport constraints within each region of the Province and an assessment of tne likely developments in transport that must complement agriculture development. This part of the Study will also aLnalyze the important manpower constraints and its relation to the implementation capacity of the Province. The recent Bank study of industrial development potential will be used for a consideration of aiternative iand use patterns particularly around urbanized areas. The Economist intelligence Unit Study of transport requirements will provide a number of important inputs tnat would be used in the transport analysis above.

Program Formulation and Evaluation

8.15 In the light of the various analyses outlined above, the economic and technical feasibilities of specific proiect proposals would be assessed for each region of analysis. The prime objective of this analysis and evaluation would be to integrate projects into an overall development program recommendation with an indicated priority ranking. The sequence of project development, the related implementation capacities, services, etc. required would be assessed. At this stage, alternative proposals for the development of each region would be indicatcd and evaluated. The analysis - 134 - would provide decision makers with means to evaluate the relative merits of various alternative programs. The alternatives would not only relate to each region, but to the combination of the individual projects as well. As a final step, the financial and budgetary implications of each alternative, as well as of the overall program of investments will be analyzed. It is expected that the Harvard Systems Study will provide an overall planning model which could be used to coordinate the various detailed planning efforts.

8.16 As the program develops, in addition to the capital requirements for the water projects, the operating (0 & M) costs will rapidly increase, more intense management will be required and a2ricultural inDuts increased. An analysis of financial and budgetary implications, as well as the repayment canacitv of beneficiaries of flood nrotectionn drainaae and irrigation projects outlined above will be necessary.

Administrative Aspect

8.17 The Comprehensive Study will also include the following:

(a) Analysis of the planning and implementation capacity of the G~nvernment avencies in agriculture and water sectors, including an analysis of the administrative machinery at the Provincial- district and local levels:

(b) Formulation of a nrogram to modernize aenouinting nrocedures; program planning and budgeting techniques, including the use rof PERT/CPM modelq for nrnoert and oenarallv tin- - - - _r -_-_ ------_- -~ - 4~~------onntrnl -- - n - g n ra l grading administrative efficiency.

Guidelines for terms of reference for various studies included in the Com- prehesive Study are -resented in ^Annex I.

SysteFms Analysis Wndr MethodologicJral Guidalnce

8.18 A TTMD fir.ar.ced Systems Study is already under ay with the HarvarA Li. UL CA -iS - f*L. A. . 7IJ - - - - 7 .l i0LV0. %4* University Center for Population Studies. This project forms an integral part of tLie Comrehensive tudy in that the dynami..c planing models and hydrological analysis will permit one means of synthesizing and analyzing thLle proposedu investm,ents anLd poliles whch er.erge duriLng the course ol the study.

Interim Reporting

8.19 The Study will produce a number of preliminary reports that would lay the basis for further investigations and technical assistance efforts. The most important of these reports are: - 135 -

(a) Pro4ect preparation and feasRhllitv rannrts for tlhe preparation studies detailed in Annex I paragraph 8.22;

(b) Preliminary reports on the flood models and the reconnaissance investigations of the Southwest Nnrthanar and Northwest Reg:Lonal and the Water-Balance Studies;

(c) Preliminary report on an assessment of the adequacy of the data gathering efforts in co4unctAiorn wit4h f-he WHvuavrd Prnovnm Ann on the need for further data base studies.

Organization and Staffing

8.20 The Comprehensive Study would be the focus of all other stud:Les anduU i L.J.atior,s tha- are undeUrway or hIave been proposeA throughout cls document. It would combine the mathematical sophistication of the Harzard

Systems Aualysis OLuUy W.ith LthC paiLnsakingdetaiALL U l of the data gatheriCng, technical research and other investigations. It would finally hope to brirng about ar interaction with policy makers to integrate effectively policy and planning for the agriculture and water sector.

8.21 In agreement with the Government, the Bank would be prepared to

supervise thle Study. r.L UUdLlg tL,.,L 61e Bank WoL.LU Ub W.L.LinLLg U Ltocr.LtnL the assistance provided for various components of this Study by members of the Consortium, t'he UI anu other agenc'±e. JLisb woulUd 'Li-voUlve organiLziLng a number of consultant groups and individual experts and assigning them, to the various aspects of t'ne Study. It is anticipated that a Coordinating Committee would be set up to steer the course of the study. The principal objective of the Coordinating Comittee would be to keep general progress of the Study under review; to guide the Study appropriately as warranted; to establish the fullest possible cooperation among the Government of East Pakistan and its agencies, (the UNDP, and the Bank) in the execution of the Study; and to seek to resolve any problems which may arise.

8.22 By agreement with the East Pakistan agencies concerned, a nuniber of Pakistani nationals with appropriate professional background from the Planning Department and otner agencies will be assignea to participate fully in the study with a view to:

(a) obtaining a realistic understanding of East Pakistan conditions and attitudes;

(b) enabling the Pakistani participants to gain analytical experience and a broader perspective on agricultural and water development problems and strategy; and

(c) facilitating the continuation of agriculture and water development strategic analysis and planning work within the GOEP after the completion of the Study. - 136 -

As a first effort to strengthen the planning work, the Study organization includes a provision for two senior consultants, with wide planning experience, to be assigned on a full-time basis to the Planning Department. Their main task would be to both guide the Pakistani nationals in developing the planning approach and to train a corps of analysts and planners who would be able to continue the work after the completion of the Study. They would also analyze the need for sectoral planning experts in sectors other than agriculture and water, and would present proposals to this end. A notional amount of $2 million is however provided in the Action Program for technical assistance to the Planning Department, although commitment for this technical assistance program is not sought at this stage, while the Comprehensive Study is formulating more concrete proposals with regard to specific sectoral planning needs.

8.23 The terms of reference for the Flood Consulting Group would be to review and guide the preliminary and detailed flood control investigations, including the mathematical and physical flood models, the South- west regional survey and the studies of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river complex. It would consist of five or six eminent international experts with a deep knowledge of flood and water control problems throughout the world. These would include experts with a deep knowledge in the various technical fields involved: namely, hydrology, sedimentology, geomorphology, geography and engineering, as well as an eminent economist with wide experience in water control and water resources development and a hydraulic engineer to guide the model-building efforts. The Group would work on a roughly one-third time basis over an initial four-year period. Costs of the Group are included in the Comprehensive Study costs.

Study Costs

8.24 The Comprehensive Study is estimated to cost approximately $7.5 million over a three-year period, of which $6.2 million represents the foreign exchange component. Table 8.1 shows the details of the cost estimates. ANNEX 1

COMPREHENSIVE STUDY: GUIDELINES FOR TERMS OF REFERENCE

General Review of Aariculture

1. A terms of refc-rence for the Study would include a aenera] rpFri w and assessment of the present situation in the East Pakistan's Agriculture Sertor and incllude among other thince the fnllnwing pnints fnr nnalyais: Al Annlra=4c etf rhzi Pi-am"t Aqv4g-v1Fti,- VF^"r%m% %f 'Fact- P6lr4c*^_

4l Apapffmp_n.t of npffsr.t status of aricultu:e ard itz contribution to the output of each region and sub- -e-j-" of analysis (see bel- , as tell as to the provincial and national economy.

ii) Present production of main commodities.

iii) Physical conditions, supply of production aids and marlKeting of arclua rdca

iV) In5stitutional an.d structural aspects.

v) AgLrUcLUre LtUUC umBong the various regions as we;; as between the East and the West and overseas trade.

B) Demand for Agricultural Production including an analysis of price trends and possibilities for diversirication in response to changed demand pattern.

C) Production Targets for Agriculture for 1975, 1980, 1985 1990 and 2000 based on effective demand and taking into account the need for diversification of agriculture to ensure stability of prices. Targets would be broken down between food and raw materials for home consumption and export. They should be consistent with the overall economic development plans for Pakistan.

Development Potential of Regions

2. An important part of study would be an analysis of the agriculture and water development potential of the province. This analysis will be aLong regional lines, with the province divided into the four Basic hydrologicaL regions, Northwest, Northeast, Southwest and Southeast discussed earlier, which may be further broken down into convenient sub-regions for detailed analysis. The assessment of the development potentials of each unit of analysis, will include the following aspects: - 2-

A) Land, Soils and Climate

i) suitability for and cost of improvement of land-use by known feasible means:

4-i) snitabh1itv of soils for a diversffled agricultural base, and for improvements in agricultural producri1mn;

iii) climatic conditions that would constrain the use of fmnrrnvoxrc norit-tl lf-iir&l innitz,t

B) Waten Avimn1nl14rty

4) analysis of the availability of rel4ihle grniond- water sources;

ii) analysis of the possibility and cost of improving Ad-tc4 watenv shortas or siurnpIuses;

iii) asesoament of the auvnilhil4tv of drv season watpr supplies, stored in bils and haors, for irrigation use;

iv) assessment of the availab4l4ty of surface water for irrigation;

v) evaluation of optimum water requirements for major crop applications.

C) Agriculture

i) review and analysis of opti-mur agricultural input mixes in each area, including fertilizer and plant protection materials and improved crop varieties, tools and machinery, and credit and technical assistance facilities;

ii) potential for expansion and diversification of agricultural production, given the basic combination of land, soils, climate and hydrology in each area;

iii) review of potential for the production of such crops as groundnuts, pulses, cashews and high-protein content vegetables;

iv) preliminary formulation of an integrated marketing and processing program particularly for high protein products taking into account modern food technology for storage; - 3 -

v) review of the current marketing and distribution practices for the major fruits produced in each area to indicate possible improvements;

vi) review and analysis of potential for various agriculture basei industries, including the availability of manpower, raw material, electric power for machinery, access to markets, etc.

D) Fisheries.

i) need for and potential of expanded and improved fisheries programs on sea as well as on the inland waterways;

ii) analysis of the UNDP study of the sea-fishing potentials in the Bay of Bengal, from an overall systems approach to fishing;

iii) analysis of requirements for an improved program for processing and marketing of sea fish;

iv) analysis of the potential of shrimp fishing in the Coastal Embankments and Estuaries, and formulation of further steps in a detailed study program;

v) preliminary analysis of the implementation capacity of the Fisheries Directorate and the Fisheries Development Corporation, and formulation of further steps in a program to fully exploit the fisheries potential of the province through improved organizational Dractices;

vi) analysis of the possible impact of proposed water and agriculture development projects on fish ecology and of possible ways to mitigate any damaging effects.

E) Animal Husbandry

i) preliminary assessment of livestock potential of each region of the province;

ii) review of research work done on cattle parasitology;

iii) an overall review of present breeding and disease nrpventinn nroaramR of thp TJv0Prtnek Dirprtnratp tn ensure that these programs are tied into the estab- - 4 -

iv) revieLw of t-he C...illa exper4lence with cattle, poulD.y, cheese and dairy, to assure that specific suitable poli ciXes anlu acti ^ons6 are taken;

v) examilnadion of the imaplem,entat ion capacity of th1-e Livestock Directorate, the relevance of their current and proposed programs anrd its organizational relationship within the Department of Agriculture.

F) Evaluation of Specific Constraints

i) Basic infrastructure deficiencies, both current, and in light of projected requirements, deficiencies in the transport system, power, manpower training, rural communications, etc.;

ii) Constraints due to inadequate supply and distribution networks for agricultural inputs, to achieve the potential analyzed above;

iii) Constraints in the form of a lack of a market focus for each area, reflecting the lack of an integrated regional and sub-regional development;

iv) Constraints on land use due to excess population pressure, needs of non-agricultural users including needs for expansion of urban areas, needs tor industrial use, needs for infrastructure, etc.;

v) Constraints imposed by financial capacity of farmers to pay for the cost of specific inputs including water for irrigation, drainage and flood protection; of their capacity to pay general taxes and to increase savings; of potential increases in consumption of their own output and of purchased goods;

vi) Implementation capacity of Government agencies in fully exploiting the potential in each region analyzed above.

Specific Project Preparation Activities

3. There are a number of key development projects and research programs that need more extensive preparation before funds are committed to them. The Comprehensive Study is designed to include the following specific project preparations (estimated man/months of consultant services are in parentheses):

a) Pesticide Project:

preparation of a pesticide project designed to reinforce the exintina nrovince-wide nlant orotection service for more efficient procurement and distribution of pesticides, to procure a basic stock of pesticides, to construct storage facilities and nrovide operating equipment and to undertake a research and extension program; (6 man/months).

(b) Livestock Pro4ects

(i) prepara on of a project to operate poultry stock farms designed to provide live animals and several poultry extension and demonstration farms (3 man/months);

(ii:) preparation of a project to create cattle improvement centers for experiments and extension in the improvement of cattle nutrition, disease control and arti- ficial insemination (6 man/months).

(c! Fiszheries Proiect

Preparation of marine fishing mechanization proiect consisting of trawlers, engines for fishing boats and shore provisions for freezing and storage (6 manImonths).

(t') Rpanrc-h- Trini1nan anti Fycten1nn

(1i prvepnrtlon onf 8 nrnirt Aaaeinad to nprnodea a lnon term research program that would coordinate all agricultur-al rese1arch in East Pakt.fan and pro foreign advisers, training and equipment (6 man/months);

(ii) preparation of a project to improve the research facilities of the Jute Researh Ir .stitute,inclUdir,g the provision of additional greenhouses, introduction of foreign varieties and purchase o' aioudern laboratory equipment (4 man/months);

(iii) preparation of a project for constructing, equipping andl staffing provir.ce-wide agriWcu'Ltura'U± LtraiLniLng facilities (9 man/months);

(iv) preparation of a project designed to strengthen the agriculture extension ser-vice, includiLng the provision of better facilities, and transportation, communication and demonstration equipimenL-- to6IFE man/monCLhs;i

(e) Basic Data Gathering on Agricultural Economixcs

Preparation of a project to be undertaken by the My-mensingh and Dacca universities to collect basic data on farm economics, farm management, land use, land tenure, product prices at farm level, credit, marketing and processing, data that would play an important role in the evaluation of development constraints (12 man/months). - 6 -

Power Aspects of ir'riatiorn Prqgrams IU~ £1jJLL UILLg-LL rLG~a

A4. Ine power survey would evaluate power aspects of agriculture and water projects in light of the development potential and with regard to inter-sectoral analysis. ANNEX 2

NEW MULTIPURPOSE PROJECTS -- FEASIBILITY STUDIES ALREADY AVAILABLE

Dacca Southwest project: The Dacca Southwest Irrigation project would provide flood control, drainage and irrigation to a gross area of about 400,000 acres located near Dacca. The embankments, 167 miles in length, would eliminate tlooding from the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries during the monsoon season to depths ranging from 3 to 15 feet.

For drainage, 8 primary pumping stations would be constructed at: natural drainage outlets along the embankment paralleling the Kaliganga River. Some improvement of the natural interior drainage channels would be necessary to assist in accomplishing drainage. For irrigation, these same pumping stations would be operated in a reverse direction to pump water from the Kaliganga to the interior of the polder.

An important additional benefit of the project will be the provision of interior navigation. A preliminary rate of return has been calculated at about 20 percent. A feasibility report will be completed by August 1970. Tendering has already started and it is expected that construction can be initiated by January 1971. Construction should be completed in four or five Years at a cost estimated at about $60 million (total equivalent).

Karnafuli Project: The Karnafuli project included four sub- nroiects of which two are nronosed for early develonment. These are the Halda Unit with a gross area of 131,500 acres and the Ichamati Unit with a gross area of 16OOO acres. Feasibilitv reporta on thpRe two Un4its; both dated May 1968 were prepared. An IDA credit of $2,400,000 has been made to the GovurnmPnt of Pnak-istan for rpuilqinn of the KAIrnafili ann M,,huri- (see below) feasibility studies and for the preparation concurrently of tender documents and final designs.

The May 1Q9R feanihi1itvy t,dv of t-hp HAldai Unit nroncptd that flood protection be provided by a dike system with a total length of 70 m41es. The embanked channel of the Halda Rlver would have a discharge capacity of 22,000 cusecs with a three foot freeboard. Drainage would come from excav-atior of a 9-mile lor.g cha.nnel, ----led the West Main Drain, as well as from some supplementary works.

Irrigation would be provided by a pumping station that would lift w.ate*r f_-nm the Rvt-nd..1d4 44nii4scha rge 4 in4t *th natural drainage __ .,,_.a. _... .&, ... baa.*cUw. .. %... 0-t a^ a .-l-* W- - system. The project area is crisscrossed by many natural water courses (khals) and excavated drainage charnnels. Utilizing low-lift p 4 t- w11 be possible to irrigate a net area of about 55,000 acres located between ele va t-ion '7a r,d- 25.'aFol l owing4ta further invrestigatior.s it migt beposil &~VOLtbJLiIluAU ~J ~~LJWLII LbAL L& .LL&V=01 LL;Z.LAJLLO .L#I_ III.L?LIL L UC 4JLJ1.LU L~ to further extend the estimated area beyond 55,000 acres, either by additional pumping (relifting) or by development of groundwater, particutarly in the higheir, foothill areas. - 2 -

Final engineering for the Ka-.afuli pro4Je.J (ualda Unt, 0 -ar -te June 1970 and it should be possible to initiate construction by about

DleceAUC,CIIaJC1 _ er_ UJI Ia7 1..

The Ichar,ati Unit will have a gross area of 16,000 and a net area of 11,800 acres. In 1969 it was noted that 6,300 acres or a little more than ha.lf ofL the irrigable area were calready irrigated by low-liLt purittpS. Water supplies for these pumps have been made possible largely by two regulating structures a'LreadUy constructeU' by raruA. ILIese 5trucLures also prevent flooding from the Karnafuli River. The project area is still subject, however, to l"oo'Urig frou the Ichaui.ati RIiver. Extensive revision of Lhe feasibility report will be required.

The rate of return for the Halda Unit project is likely to exceed 20 percent. The project cost is estimated at $21 million. Construction should be completed in about four years.

Muhuri project: The gross area of the project is 101,000 acres. A feasibility report dated January i967 was prepared but needs updating and revision.

For flood control there would be about 92 miles of major embankments (crest width 14 feet, average heignt 9 feet, freeboard above design flood 3.5 feet) including 21 miles along the right bank of the Muhuri, 19.5 miles along its left bank, 20 miles along each bank of the Selonia River up to the point where it discharges into the Kalidas Khal (an existing man-made channel) and 12 miles along the right bank of the Feni River. In addition there would be 56 miles of smaller embankments along some of the tributary streams.

There would be channel improvements mainly to eliminate bends in the Muhuri and Selonia River so as to increase their carrying capacities. With these improvements plus the embankments, the Muhuri River embankments would terminate at the Dacca-Chittagong Highway bridge near Haripur which is about 10 miles upstream of the mouth of the Muhuri River. An additional embankment would be needed to form a closure between the existing right- bank Kalidas embankment and a coastal embankment at Sonapur.

The report proposed sluices at the mouths of the Muhuri River and Kalidas Khal to prevent flooding and saline intrusion from high tides. The design would be similar to that of the existing EPWAPDA regulator across the Little Feni River whose drainage basin adjoins and is west of the Muhuri River drainage basin.

Drainage will need further study with respect to the low-lying area downstream of Haripur and other low-lying areas that cannot be drained during high levels in the main exit channels, namely the Muhuri and Selonia-Kalidas. -3-

IThe 'Lrr'JgatLorL plan proposeu in the 1967 report would proviae irrigation by gravity to only 8,700 acres in the higher, northern portion of tIle project area. mne small are .rrigated- would De on the Dasis or tne available dry-season flow of the Muhuri River. A conventional gravity sysitem was proposed which is probably not workable.

As of May !9f" i13 low-lift pumps nad been instailed by A-DC along the Muhuri and -cs tributaries and the available water supply is ample for some additional pumps. The area irrigated per pump is about 45 acres or 5,000 acres total. Tl would seem that, as a next step, impoundment of water by the proposed Muhuri and Kalidas sluices (as at the Little Feni Regulator) would permit further installation of low-lift pumps. Ultimately, it should be possible to irrigate by means of low- lift pumps all of the low-lying land in the project between elevations 15 and 25 amounting to 57,000 acres. The low-lift pumps will obtain their supply from the natural drainage system. Since, however, the flow of the Muhuri River is insufficient during the dry season, another source of water would be required. Such a possible source is obtainable from the Dakatia River which would have to be connected by a "link canal" to the Little Feni River and thence by means of an existing natural channel to the Muhuri River. A reconnaissance of such a water-transfer scheme is included in the scope of work of the consultants already engaged, as mentioned above, in the description of the Karnafuli project.

As now scheduled, the feasibility study and final designs and tendering documents can be completed by December 1972. Construction could be initiated early in 1973, and completed in about four years. Based upon preliminary data, cost of the project has been estimated at $12 million.

The Pabna project: The Pabna project is located along the left bank of the Ganges River between Abdulpur and its confluence with the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River. The project would provide flood protection and drainage for a gross area of 453,000 acres of which 316,000 would be irrigated. The project is being studied by a joint venture of two consulting firms.

Flood prevention would be provided by an embankment of 188 miles long encircling the project. The embankment along the Ganges would be 49 miles long. Drainage of internal rainfall runoff during the monsoon season would be accomplished by a system of drainage channels (utilizing the existing water courses as much as possible) and by four pumping plants.

Many schemes have been considered for irrigation of the area. The one that the consultants now seem to be favoring would involve a main pumping plant: on the relatively stable Karatoa River at Bera where backwater flow is received from the Brahmaputra-Jamuna. The Baral River would be used as a conveyance channel as would two rivers in the interior of the project, the Itchamati and the Atrai. The consultants are also considering use of existing drainage channels as irrigation distributaries (supplemenited -4- by low-lift p.mps) as is pronnpod fnr thp Channdpur and TDarc2 Snuithwest projects. It has also been suggested that groundwater might be an important water sourr- nnrtirii1nrlv in thp wP.qtrn nnrtinn of the nrnilrt ArPA- The feasibility report is expected to be available in mid-1970. If financing can be arranged, construction of the first stage of the Pabna pro4ect could begin in early 1972.

Preliminary information indicates that a rate of return equal to or exceeding that for Ghandniir (ratP nf reit-urn 18.5 percent) will result for this project. Based on information currently available, costs of Phaa T Iof the pro4ect (gross area 220,000 acres, net area 160,000 acres) have been estimated at $50 million (total equivalent).

The Belkuchi project: The Belkuchi project area is bordered on the rlght bank by the Brahmaputra RIver an.d on the laft by the Knrnana River in the Pabna District. Gross area of the project is 101,000 acres, 70,000 acresof which are proposed for irrigatior.. The Brahmaputra Em bankment completed in 1968 protects the area from overbank spill of that rilver. Hvioever, the area, is still vulnerable to flooding from. the Karatoa- Hurasagar River and Brahmaputra backwater to an average depth of 5 feet. 4 1.Whi le there is ala _Jw.Qnn abfC,,nn1i, wt,ne1ar 4i the A 4a ina r4ivers most of the land remains uncultivated in the winter months and agricultural yield is poor. due to floods an.d droughe.ss. A foeasibi,litL.y report 4n draft form dated September 1968 prepared by the consulting firm Techno-

ConLIsU± L oL Paklisan i:s availabeU . TirJrty-five .miles of elmankrment are propose' 'or flood protection. IL&4L L.i J. L~ L&I.L~ IL kIJLNLLLU d.L. LU9~U £~L L.LLPLPU jL L~LLUh Three pumping plants would supply irrigation water, and two of these plants woulU also serve to dUraiL tLe area UurLing the r-aiLLy seaso.n Exit i.ng channels coupled with one sluice are planned for drainage, and the gravity irrigation planiI Uevelopeu uy thiLe consu'Ltan ts wouWlUd require 58JOmILles ofL main canal and 101 laterals to convey water to the irrigable lands. The water source proposed for the project is the Karatoa River which is said to be reasonably stable. Since the area is traversed by numerous channels, it is bDelieved th[lat low-lift pumps might be utilized to convey water from natural waterways to the irrigable land thus avoiding the right-of-way problems and expense that would be encountered with a gravity system. Use and improvement of the natural channels would aid navigation by country boats, the only mode of transportation available to tne greater bulk of tne farmers. Six to 8 months would be needed to study the low-lift pump alternative. Tne project appears to have good potential for development and costs should be reasonably low, considering that much of the needed flood prevention works already exist. Based upon comparison with other projects (such as Chandpur) it appears that the project should have a favorable economic Justification. Assuming that the same consultants that made the feasibility report of September 1968 are engaged, and that the feasibility study revisions are completed by the latter part ot 1970, It should be possible if financing can be arranged to start construction of the Belkuchi project by about the end of 1971. The cost of the project is estimated to be $24 million based upon currently available data. -5 -

The Upper Kushiyara- prLJc;:L. The Upper Kushi±yara projecL is located in the northeastern corner of the Sylhet District, about 20 miles east of Syihet Town. A feasibility report dated May 1966 was prepared for this project covering a gross area of 87,000 acres. Flood protection of 78,000 acres would be provided by means of embankments; about 50,000 acres would be drained by gravi, and 40,000 acres would be irrigated by pumping from the Kushiyara and -urman Kivers into a conventional gravity canal distribution system.

Alternatives to the gravity canal irrigation scheme proposed in the report should be considered, particularly in view of the short dry season. Low-lift pumps and tubewells could provide attractive alternatives to gravity canals without the right-of-way problems created by the latter.

The project appears justified, at least for flood prevention and drainage. Additional studies should be made considering the alternatives suggested above, and economic studies should be prepared in accordance with current standards established by EPWAPDA in cooperation with the East Pakistan Bank Group.

Once terms of reference are prepared and considering the large amount of useful information in the 1966 report, it should be possible to prepare a revised feasibility study of adequate scope in about 12 months' time. If this can be accomplished by June 1971 it should be possible, pra- vided that financing can be arranged, to start construction by 1972. Based upon preliminary information, costs of the project have been estimated at $13.5 million.

The Khowai project: A feasibility report on the Khowai project dated February 1968 was prepared. Physical characteristics of the report divide it into two distinct areas; Phase I comprising the Northern Area, composed of 39,800 acres which is flooded from late May to late October to a depth of 5 to 20 feet every year by backwater flow from the Dhaleswari Meghna, and Phase II comprising the Southern Area encompassing a gross area of 40,200 acres with a net irrigable area of 33,000 acres which is flooded by the Khowai, Karangi, and Sutang Rivers.

The flood protection scheme for Phase II would involve construction of embankments along both banks of the Khowai River, a river reach of 16.5 miles, the right bank of the Sutang River for 26 miles and the left bank of the Karangi River for 17.5 miles and a diversion sluice and channel from the Khowai near Chunanighat to the Sutang River.

Provision of water supply for irrigation may prove to be very valuable in the Southern Area during the dry season. The consultants planned to provide water for irrigation from a conventional gravity canal system. They also proposed to build a barrage on the Khowai River and divert water into two main canals totalling 21 miles in length. Forty miles of laterals would be required to serve all the land under this scheme. -6-

Gravity canall systes require considerable righ1of-way and cause significant impact upon the densely populated areas of East Pakistan such as Lt:le NK"LWai area. LLIe cana4L0' L lolfnecss'Ly UsUt L Ue .Locau eul onth higgher ground where villages are usually built and as a result right-of-way costs are high, displaced people are very disturbed, and the process of obtaining land is time-consuming and frequently delays project implementation indefinitely. The alternative of releasing water for irrigation into drainageways and khals from which it can be lifted to the lands by low-lift pumps hLas many advantages and should be considered for the Khowai project. A second alternative that should be examined would be to use the borrow area adjacent to the outer embankment as the main canal locations so that less right-of-way would be required.

The Phase II project seems economically justified for flood prevention and irrigation. Additional studies should be made considering the alternatives suggested above. Once the terms of reference are prepared, and considering the large amount of useful information in the 1968 report, it should be possible to prepare a feasibility report in about twelve months' time. If this can be accomplished by June 1971 and if financing can be arranged it should be possible to start construction by the end of 1972. Based upon preliminary information, and the 1968 report, the project is estimated to cost $11 million. It would appear practical to employ the same consuiting firm on Khowai as wiii be used on Upper Kushiyara.

The Sangu Muiti-Purpose Project: A report on the Sangu multi- purpose project was prepared in 1965. The project is located near Chitta- gong. The irrigation aspects are presented in a separate report dated June 1964.

The main features of the project area are a 190-foot high storage dam, a diversion dam (barrage) at Dohazari and a gravity irrigation system covering a command area of 100,000 acres. The main dam would include a power house with three 27,500 kw units. Average annual generation would be 229 million kilowatt-hours at 33 percent plant factor. The benefit-cost ratio for the hydro features was computed at 2.11; for the irrigation features it would be 3.70 for an "optimum program" and 1.35 for a "practical program'"; for flood control it would be 2.43. 1/

Topographically, the irrigated area is low-lying; 80 percent of it is between elevations of 4 and 12 feet above sea level. It is a semi- bowl-like shape with a depression in the center along the Chand Khali. This makes the task of canal alignment difficult and the system costly. Also there are innumerable stream crossings.

1/ These ratios are considered illustrative only as the interest rate and foreign exchange rate, discounting procedures, etc., would need recon- sideration. -7 -

R--'nfall 4!inthe area 4i relatively hih. T.h. average .nual rainfall is 108 inches while the average October rainfall is 7.1 inches. Since~ auout~ ~of ths-- rtclal -anflln October, could4 be ample for transplated aman (provided proper cultural practices, e.g., diking or plots, are aloptedI J J. L. GL UUL~L 6 byLi theL.JS. -Lfa..uers), IULO L~LLLV~reilatively ±L~large b-enefits-u LI..LL Ll. r,,ight L Lit be obtained from a first- _age project limited largely to flood control.

The capacity of the hydro-electric installation should be recon- sidered for a possible lower plar,t factor and higher installed capacity taking into account changes in the power system that have occurred since thIe Leport was prepared. The possibility of pumped storage for peaking should also be studied making use of the Dohazari barrage for re-regulating storage.

rurther steps to audvance this project shouli be considered on a reconnaissance basis before proceeding to detailed revision of the existing feasibility report. It has been proposed that a singie consuiting firm or group be engaged to carry out the studies for the nearby Karnafuli project as well as for the Muhuri and Little Feni projects. It might be possible to arrange for the same firm to carry out the reconnaissance studies for the Sangu Irrigation project and for a subsequent detailed revision of the existing feasibility study.

This project would appear to present no serious technical problems and might provide an excellent opportunity for a hydro-peaking plant to fit in with the East Pakistan power grid but adequate costs and benefits will not be available until further studies are completed. Assuming that the feasibility report and final engineering could be completed by the end of 1973, construction could begin early in 1974. Based upon preliminary information, the cost of the project has been estimated at US$50 million.

New Multi-Purpose Projects - Feasibility Studies Not Yet Available

The Dacca North project area is located in the Northeast region of East Pakistan between the Dacca-Joydepur Sripur Road and the Banar- Lakhya River, north of the city of Dacca in Dacca District. The area extends from Dacca Demra Road in the south to Sripur Railroad in the north.

The gross project area is 218,000 acres and plans are proposed to irrigate 174,000 acres. Elevations in the project area range from 4 feet in the center to above 30 feet near Kapsia. Higher elevations occur generally along the river on the eastern side of the project and along the western boundary. The high area along the west is rapidly developing as an industrial area. - 8 -

The E- t Pakiast-an RanLk Group ha- t-he -opot,unit- t- re--4ew a draft of an agreement on study of the feasibility of the project. The agreem.ent would direct th-.-econsultant i-n the study of plysical plar.s an-, economics for full development of project land and water resources to achUi eve flooA preventlL40on, irrigation, andA drainage . Ceveral alternatlves are suggested to achieve flood control including protecting the project area froUm TaLakya-iver floAi4n by e,m.bankments ar,d a bca.k evee anl drain along the border with the jungle to the north. Gravity sluices and pumping plants would lbCestudifed for drainageU.*Th e source ofLirritgaLL tion1-. w -aLt.Wer would be the Lakhya River through a pumping plant on the right bank. SItudy woiuld beUmade both of a g LyD-ILLtra4 dU Ut LZUl LUdking use of existing drainage channels as irrigation distributaries with low- .Lit £I. puIUps to lift water tLo the lands

Thle plan of develop.,e.t woull include stages starting with partial flood protection with provision for increasing it, and the irrigation sys- teLrI UdveLopeU in bUlockNs to the extent practicable. Grauual arawown of flooding would be planned so that farmers would not be subject to sudden and drastic adjustments by complete elimination of flood water upon project completion.

As there is some relatively higher ground within the project area, which may not be fiooded or may be subject to only shallow flooding, it might be useful to consider two additional alternatives. One would be a first-stage development limited to the high ground with water obtained from tubewells. The second would also consider tubewells for the high ground but as a final stage of the project.

EPWAPDA and its general consultants should follow the feasibility work closely to ensure that it is adequate. If the study is finished by mid-1972, it should be possible, if financing can be arranged, to begin construction of the project in 1973. Based on preliminary information, the cost of the project is estimated at $40 million (total equivalent).

The Barisal area comprises 1,500,000 acres near the southeast corner of the Southwest Region. It is a zone of ample sweet water and i3 subject to relatively shallow flooding. The soil and water resources of the region indicate that it is one of high potential and where major benefits can be achieved both in the short-run and over a longer time period.

In view of its very large size, the Barisal area will have to be developed in phases. Phase I would cover 300,000 acres (gross) and 200,000 acres (net) for project preparation, final engineering, and capital investment. 9-

Project preparation for a Phase I project is estimated at $4.0 million total equivalent. If this zan start by January 1, 1971, it should be completed by June 30, 1973. The initial work of project preparation will have to include a reconnaissance of the entire 1.5 million acres in the Barisal region so as to delimit the 300,000 acres in Phase I. Final engineering is estimated as costing $5.0 million total equivalent. This would include the cost of final engineering for all three stages in Phas e I.

St;ae (a) of the Phase I proiect would consist of the installatiLon of about 2,000 low-lift portable diesel pumps and some drainage sluices in a area of a2bour 100,000 acres net. Stave (h) would invo]uv 2-000 additional low-lift pumps and primary pumping stations and drainage sluices for :n ino-ionnol1 0nn rr0cR (nPtV whi lp qtaCgp (rl woltri inun1vp flnnd prevention embankments and drainage for the entire 300,000 acres (gross).

The cost of the first phase capital investments (stages a, b, and c) as indicated in Table 6.1, is esttimated at $36 .millionof which $9 million is in foreign exchange.

Little Feni Project: According to the IECO Master Plan report of Deceflnrn-er 196$4, the Tittle Feni irrigation proJect- would hav- a gross area of 259,000 acres and a net area of 150,000 acres. The project is located in thIe Southeast reg-ion. Tn 19655, a large regulator structure 1(dralInage sluice) was completed by EPWAPDA near the mouth of the Little Feni river to preven tidal linundation nd saline water intrusion.

WiL.LIIJue Lda.Leu LeasibiP.±±..ly studies, i1t 'Ls not- possible to determine the cost and justification for flood prevention works nor their phasing.

irrigation of the Litte Freni project area, i,ke rIood controi, would have to proceed in stages. Much would depend upon further development ofia schieme involving transfer of water from the Daklat'ia river to the Muhuri river via the Little Feni river; see description of the Muhuri project.

If the feasibility report is finished by the end of 1972 together with tendering documents and final engineering for initial construction, construction could begin in mid-1973. Costs of a Phase I (140,000 acres gross and 90,000 acres net) of the project, based upon incomplete information have been estimated at $30 million.

The Comilla-Noakhali Project lies in the Dakatia River drainage basin in the Southeast region of East Pakistan and covers a gross area of 892,000 acres. The area is bordered by the Chandpur Project (now under construction) on the southwest. - 10 -

An IDA credit of $2,400,000 has been granted to the Government of Pakistan to finance revised feasibility studies and final engineering of the Karnafuli and Muhuri Projects and consultants have already been engaged by EPWAPDA for this work. Studies of water supply will involve investigation of the Dakatia River as a source for the Muhuri, Little Feni, and n*jor portions of the Comilla-Noakhali area (in the latter two cases on atrpre- liminary reconnaissance basis).

Based upon a knowledge of the topographic, hydrologic, a0d' agricultural aspects of the area, it would appear likely that a technically and economically sound proJect can evolve. EPWAPDA and its general consultants should make use of reconnaissance findings for the projects and prepare appropriate terms of reference for feasibility studies. Table 6.1 indicates the possibility of a construction start in 1974. Based on nreliminarv data, cost of Phase I (220.000 acres gross and 160,000 acres net) of the project has been estimated at $50 million. TabLe 3 .1

EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTUEE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT

Prcposals for an Action Program

Commitments lFn/71-1972 /7

Project./Program C0sts ($ M"ilion) 0- -I M7I777! -1972773 Pro ject/Program Local ForeLgn Local Fcr eigrn Local. Foreign Local For-eign Currency Currenicy Total Currency Currency Tol;al Currenicy Currency Totail Currency Currency Total.

A. Short-Run Quic: Impact Program

I. Current Agricultural Inputs

(a) Fertilizer - amnual purchases 2/ 32.0 29.0 61.0 54.0 30.0 84.0 65.0 30.0 95.0 191.0 89.0 240.0 (b) Plant Protection - annual purchases - 40.() 40.0 47.0 47.0 - 56.o 56.o - 143.0 143.0

Total - Current Inputs 32.0 69.0 101.0 54.0 77.0 131.0 65.o 86.o 151.0 151.0 232.0 383.0

II. AgricuLtural Inputs Pro jects

(a) FertiliZer: storage and distribution V11/71 14.0 6.o 20.0 - - 14.0 6.o 20.0 (b) Ferti]Lizer: factory - - - 30.0 50.0. 0 .0 - - 30.0 o0.0 80.0 (c) Plant Protection: spraying equipment and storage 5.0 4.0 9.0 - - . .0 4.0 9.0 (d) Plant Protection: aerial spraying equipatent 1.0 3.0 4.0 _ 1.0 3.0 4.0 (e) New Seed. VariLeties: production and distribution 6.0 3.0 9.0 - - - - - 6.o 3.0 9.0 (f) Grain Storage 3.5 10.9 14.0 - - - - 3.95 SLO. li.0

Total - Agricultura]L Inputs Pr-ojects 29.5 26.9 56.o 30.0 50.0 80.0 - - 59.5 76.5 136.0 III., Quick Yielding Pro ects

(a) Low-Lift, Pumps (i) ADC:I 7.0 7.0 14.0o - - - - - 7.0 7.0 14.C) (ii) ADC:II - - _ _ _ 20.0 5.0 29.0 20.0 5.0 25.0 (b) Tubewells (ii AOCII _ _ _ _ _ (ii) ADC II - - - 42.0 42.0 84.0 _ 42.0 42.0 84.0 (iii) EFWAPDAI 12.3 36.3 48.6 2.5 7.5 o10.0 14.8 43.8 98.6 (iv) E;WAPDA II D.7 1.3 2.0 *o- - 10.9 31.5 42.0 11.2 32.8 44.( (c) Other Proects (i) Tea Equipeent and Irrigation 3.2 4.8 8.0 - - - - 3.2 4.8 8.0 (ii) Marine Fisheries 8.0 12.0 20.0 - - - - 8.0 12.0 20.0

Total - Quick Yielding Projects 31.2 61 .4 92.6 44.5 49.5 94.0 30.5 36.5 67.0 106.2 147.4 253.6 IV., Rural Development

(a) Grants) Integrated Rural Development 8.4 - 8.4 8.4 - 3.4 8.4 - 8.4 25.2 - 25.2 (b) Loans ) 24.0 0.3 24.3 24.0 0.4 24.4 24.( 0.4 24.4 72.0 1.1 73.:L (c) itRral Infrastruicture (Works Prograrm including TIP 55.o - S6.0 65.o - 65.o 75.0 - 75.0 i96.o - 196.(

Total - Rurral Development 88.4 0.3 88.7 97.4 0.4L 97.8 107.4 o.4 107.8 293.2 1.1 294.3

TOTAL SHORT-RUN QUICK IMPACT PROCRAM 181.1 157.2 338.3 225.9 176.9 402.8 202.9 122.9 325.8 606.9 457.0 1066.9 Tab), 3.1 ond P-age2

Project/Program Costs (:3 Nillion)

197C71 23172 9 2 7Total-- Local Foreign Ircal Foreign Local Foreigni Local For eigrn Froject/Progran C______ivorencyvC~urrency -Total Currency 'Currenicv lotal Crec Cueny Total Turrenc! Currency lotal

B. ~TheLonger-Rui Prograr

I. Lare Scale Water Proects

(a) Prlj'e1l,Preparation and Fi'lEgnei~ Wi Pabna Phase I and Belkuchi 1.0 3.0 14.0 ------1.0 3.0 14.0 (ii) Dacca North 0.9 2.0 1.9 0.9 1.6 2.95 - 1.4 2.6 4.0. (iii) Khowai and Up,per Kusjyara 0.6 C'.9 1.9 ------0.6 0.9 2.9 (iv) Barisal Phase 1 1.3 2.7 4.0 ------1.3 2.7 14.0 (v) Little Feni Phase I - - - 1.5 2.5 14.3 - - - 1.3 2.5 14.3 (vi) Comilla-Noakt.ali Phase I - - - 2.6 5.Le 5.0 - - - 2.6 5.14 8.0 (vii) Sangu - - - 1.0 3.0D ~ .O. - - 1.0 3.0 14.0 (viii) Ganges-Kobadak Jessore Unit, Phase 1I ------0.9 1.5 2.0 0., 1.9 2.0

Total - Pr-oject Preparation and Final Engineeri-ng 3.14 7.6 11.0 6.3 12.5 18.8 0.9 1.9 ?.0 10.2 21.6 31.8

(b) Proec Constructioni (i30anges-Kobadak, Kushtia Unit 2.9 c5. 8.0 ------2.9 9.9 8.0 (ii) Coastal Emban2nents 144.8 ~.2 90.0 - - - 33.8 131.5 148.3 78.6 19.7 98.3 (iii) Dacca Southwest 149.0 1;9.0 60.0 ------149.0 19.0 60.0 (iv) Barisal Phase I 9.8 '.2 11.0 - - - 10.7 3.3 1~.O. 16.5 8.9 25.0 (v) K(arnafuli - - - 19.0 6.0 21.0 - - - 19.0 6.0 21.0 (vi) UJpper Kushiyara - - - 10.0 3.9 13.5 - 10.0 3.9 13.5 (vii) Khowai - - - 7.9 3.1 11.0 - - - 7.9 3.1 11.0 (viii) Plabna Phase I ------37.9 12.5 90.0 37.9 12.9 90.0 (ix) Belkuchi ------18.0 6.0 214.0 18.0 6.0 214.0 (x) Muhuri ------8.2 3.8 12.0 8.2 3.8 12 .0 (xi.) Dacca North ------30.0 10.0 140.0 30.0 10.0 140.0

Total Project Construction 98.1 3C'.9 129.0 322.9 12.6 149.5 138.2 50.1 188.3 269.2? 93.6 362.8

Total Large Scale Water Projectbs 101.95 3E.9 1140.0 39.2 29.1 614.3 138.7 51.6 190.3 279.14 119.2 3914.6 II. Agricultural Projlects

(a) Livestock Ci) -Liv-estock (Cattle) IrMprovemnent Farms 3/ 3/ / 7.C 9.0 12.0 ..-- 7.0 9.0 12.0 (ii) Livestock (Poultry) TmnprovEment Farms 3/ j/ / 2.0 1.0, 3.0 -- 2.0 1.0 3.0

(b) Credit - and meedium- long-ter-m 3/ / 3/ 10.0 10.0 20.0 . - 10.0) 10.0 20,0

Total - Agricultxra1 Projects 2/ 2 / 19.0 16.0 35.0 .--- 19.0' 16.0 35.0o

III. Planning PoJect Implem ntatiorn: Triig(ehLa Assistance) Programs

(a) Technical Assistance - Planning Dept. -03 D 0.9) 1.2 *.- - 0.3 0.9 1.2 (b) Agricul-tural Training Program 3.2 2.0 5.9 - - 3,.5 2.0 5.5 7.C' 14.0 1-11.0 (c) Agricultural Extension Training Program 8.0 1.9 9.5- - - - ~ 8.0O 1.9 9?.9 16.0~ 3.0 19.0 (d) Plant Pmtecotion Service Training Program 3.0 2.0 9.0 - - - . - - 3.C 2.0 9.0 (e) KPWqAPfliGenerial Consultants 2.0 14.0 6.0 - - - 2.0 9.0 7 .0 14.c 9.0 13.0

Total - 'rraining Progr-ams 16.5 M. 26.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.3.6 8.5 22.0 30.3 18.9 149.2 Ill. ResearchPgrm

(a) Agricul-tural Riesearch 18.0 7.0 29.0- - - . - - 18.0 7.0 25.0 (b) Jute Research 3.0 3.0 6.0o .. - 3.0 3.0 6.0

Tctal - Research 21.0 10.0 31.0 -- --- 21.0 10.0 31.0 TaLble 3.1 (Cont d) Fage 3

project/Program Costs ($ Million) ____- 7CE7I77T 2 TOtal Project/Program Local Foreign Local Foreing Loc2 l Foreign Local. Foreign Cuwrrency Currency Total Currency Currency Total Currecy Caurrency Total Curren cy lrrencv Total

V. Studies, Sarveys and Inirestitions

(a) Speci&l P se StudLies (i) Soil Survey 0.2 0 .3 0.5 - - - - 0.2 0.3 cl.5 (ii) Inland FisbariLes Survey - - - 2.0 3.0 5.0 - - 2.0 3.0 5.o (iii) Agricultural Economics _ - - 0.4 o.6 1.0 - - - 0.4 o.6 1.0 (iv) Jute Irdustry 0.1 0.3 0.4 ------0.1 0.3 C'.4 (v) Surface, Water Hydrology 0.3 1.5 1.8 ------0.3 1.5 1.8 (vi) Geotecknics 0.2 o.6 0.8 ------0.2 o.6 0.8 (vii) Seismology 0.1 0.1 0.2 ------0.1 0.1 0.2 (viii) Morphology and Sedimentology 0.0 0.1 0.1 ------0.0 0.1 C.1 (ix) Construction Materials Stud-ies 0.3 CI.3 o.6 ------0.3 0.3 0.6 (x) Aerial Mappintg 1.4 1.6 3.0 ------1.4 1.6 3.0 Total - Special Purpose Investigations 2.6 4.8 7.4 2.4 3.6 6.o - - - 5.0 8.4 13.4 (b) Flood Control Investigations Ti) Giarges Barrage: SWRegion Water Supply 1.5 4.o 5.5 - - - 1.5 4.0 5.5 (ii) Model of Soutlmiest hegion / / o/0.6 1.4 2.0 - - - o.6 1.4 2.0 (iii) Flood Fodels 3/ 3/ 3/ 0.8 1.7 2.5 - - - 0.8 1.7 2.5 (iv) Ganges Brahmaputra-Meghna Complex 3J I/ 31 1.5 3.5 s.o _ _ _ 1.5 3.5 5.0 Total - Flood Control Investigations - - - 4.4 10.6 15.0 - - - 4.4 10.6 15.0 (c) Co rehensive Study i)General Revieii of AgriculttLre 0.1 C0.3 0.4 - - - - - 0.1 0.3 0.4 (ii) Development Potentials of fRegim 0.3 1.6 1.9 ------0.3 1.6 1.9 (iii) Flood Control Planning 0.1 0.7 0.8 ------0.1 0.7 0.8 (iv) Project/Program Preparation Activities 0.0 o.3 0.3 - - - _- - 0.0 0.3 0.3 (v) Power Surveys 0.0 .-3 0.3 ------0.0 0.3 0.3 (vi) Analysis of Initer-Sectoral Links 0.2 o.6 0.8 ------0.2 o.6 0.8 (vii) Program. FormuLation and Evalsa tion 0.3 1.0 1.3 ------0.3 1.0 1.3 viii) Flood Consulting Group 0.1 0.6 0.7 ------0.1 o.6 0.7 (ix) Systems Analysis and Methodlolo- gical Guidance (Harward Systems Study) - - - 0.2 0.8 1.0 - - - 0.2 0.8 1.0 Total - Comprehensive Study 1.1 5;.4 6.5 0.2 0.8 1.0 - - - 1.3 6.2 7.5

Total - Studies, Surveys and Investigations 347 10.2 13.9 7.0 l5ao 22.0 - - - 10.7 25.2 35.9

TDTAL LCNG - RIJN PhOGRAM 142.7 68.2 210.9 65.5 57.0 122.5 152.2 60.1 212.3 360.4 185.3 545.7

TOTAL ACTION PROGRAM 323.8 22S.4 549.2 291.4 233.9 525.3 355.1 183.0 538.1 970.3 642.3 1612.6

I/ Commitment means the total funds required for the project.

2/ Net bud.getary imnlication wrill be 50% of previous yearxs sales.

3/ Will commence following reconnaissance phase of comprehensive study.

T LIe 3.2 Piage 1

EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTURnE ANDWATER DEVELOPMENT

Proposals for an Action Program Forecast of Disbursements

(New Commitments) (1970/71-1972/73)

Disbursements ($ MilLion) 1970/71 1971/72 1972/13 After 1972/73 Total Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Fareign Local Foreigni Local Foreign ______rreoF' rency Total Currency Currency _Total Currencv Currenlcy Total Cur rencv Currency Total Currenlcy Currenc r Total L. Short-ban Quick Impact Program

I. Current Agriculture Inputs

(a) Fertilizer - annual purchases 32.0 29.0 61.0 54.0 30.0 84.0 65.0 30.0D 95.0 1/ 1/ V/ 151.0 89.o 240.0 Cb) Planit Protection - annual purchases - 40.0 40.0 - 47.0 47.0 - 56.0 56.o V/ 1/ 2/ 3143.0 143.0

Total - Current Inputs 32.0 69.0 101.0 54.0 77.0 131.0 65.0 86.0 151.0 1/ 1/ I/ 151.0D 232.0 383.0

II. Agriculbural Inputs lrolects la) Fertilizer: StoraLge and distribution 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 2.D 5.0 7.0 2.0 9.0 14.0 6.0 20.0 (b) Fertilizer: factory - - - 5.0 10.0 15.0 10.0 15.0 25.0 15.0 25.0 40.0 30.01 50.0 80.0 Ic) Plant Protection spraying equipiment anld storage 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 - - - 5.0 4.0 9.0 (d) Plant Protection, aerial spraying equipiment - 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 - 1.0 1.0 - - - 1.0 3.0 4.0 (e) New Seed Varietiets: productiorL and distribution 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 - - - 6.0 3.0 9.0 (f) GraLn Storage 0.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 6.o - - - 3.5 10.5 14.0

Total - AgriLcultural Inputs Prcjects 3.5 6.5 10.0 14.0 18.0 32.0 20.0 25.0 45.0 22.0 27.0 49.0 59.5 76.5 136.o

III. Quick Yield Projects

(a) Low-Lift Fumps 71-T A-Dc-I 3.5 3.5 7.0 3.5 3.5 7.0 ------7.0 7.0 14.0 (ii) ADCII ------6.0 2.0 8.0 14.0 3.0 17.0 20.0 5.0 25;.0

rb) =ewelw s (i) ADCII - - - - - 7.0 7.0 14.0 35.0 35.0 7'0.0 42.0 42.0 814.0 (ii) EPU1PDA I 0.2 0.14 o.6 1.5 4.0 5.5 5.4 16.1 21.5 7.7 23.3 31.0 14.8 43.8 58.6 (iii) EFWAPDAII 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.0 2.2 3.2 5'.5 29.5 39.0 11.2 32.8 44.0

(c) Other Pro:ects 7ji Tea Equipment and Irrigaktion -- - - 0.8 1.2 '2.0 1.2 1.8 3.0 1.2 1.8 3.0 3.2 4.8 6.0 (ii) Marine Fis'heries 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 7.0 4.0 5.0 9.0 - - - 8.0 12.0 20.0

Total - Quick Yielding Projects 5.9 6.2 12.1 8.3 14.5 22.8 24.6 34.1 58.7 67.4 92.6 160.0 106.2 147.4 253.6 IV. Rural Develent

(a) Grants 8.4 - 8.4 8.4 - 8.4 8.4 -- 8.4 2/ 2/ 2/ 25.2 - 25;.2 (b) Loans 24.0 0.3 24.3 24.0 0.14 24.4 24.0 0.4 24.4 7/ 2/ 2/ 72.0 1.1 73.1 (c) EhreL Infrastructure (Works Pr-ogram includirng TIP) 56.0 - 56.o 65.0 - 65.0 75.0 - 75.0 2/ 2/ 2/ 196.0 - 190.0

Total - Rurial Development, 88.4 0.3 88.7 97.4 0.14 97.8 107.4 0.4 :L07 .8 2/ 2/ 2/ 293.2 1.1 294.3

TOTAL SHORT-RUNIQUICK IMPACT PROGRAM 129.8 82.o 211.8 173.7 109.9 283.6 217.0 145.5 362.5 85,.4 119.6 209.0 609.9 457.0 1066.9 Cal ot 9 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Page2

Disbursesents (3 Mil-lion)

1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 After 19712/73 Total ign Local Foreign Local Fore ign Local Forsi gn Loc:al Fore ign Local Fore rec CurrencyC-g5 Total Cur-rency Currenicy Toal Currency Currenc' - ox,a ______~~~~CurrencyCurrency Total Curreicy Curency, Total

B. The Lin1gzRuntProgrI

I. Large-Scal e Water. Pro jecta

(a) EmJect Preparation and Fiml Eineer Ig - 1.0 3.2 4.0 (i) Pabna Plhse I and Belkuchi 0).5 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 - - - - 1.7 1.4 2.6 4.0 (ii) Dacca Niorth 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 11.1 .- 0.6 0.9 1.5 Ciii) Khowai and Upper Kusiyara 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4, 0.6 1.0 - - - - 1.3 2.7 4.0 (iv) Barisal Phase I 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 - .-- 0.8 1.8 2.5 4.3 (v) Little Fenin - - - 0.7 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.8 0.3 0,.5 2.6 5.4 8.0 (vi) Coailla-Noakhali - - - @.B 1.7 2.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 o.8 1.-7 2.5 1.4 1.0 3.0 4.0 (vii) Sangu - - - 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.4 1.0 (viii) Ganges--Kobadak Jessore Unit, 2.0 1.5 2.0 Phase IT ------0.5 1.5 0).5

Total - Project Preparation and 10.2 21.6 31.8 Final FBiginearing 1.2 3.0C 4.2 3.5 7.3 10.8 2.9 5.5 8.4 2.6 5.8 8.4

0304 5 80 (b) ~Proet Cons truction3. 0.2 o.8 2'.55.80 (iT 5Ganges.-Kobadak, Kushtia Uni-t 0.8 2.6, 3.4 0.8 2.6 34 03 0.1 0.o.6 38.0 78.6 19.7 918.3 (ii) Coastal istankments 29 .5 1.3 30.8 11.9 2.2 114.1 9.4 6.0 15.4 27.8 10.2 7.0 31.0 45.0 15.0 60.0 (iii) Dacca Southwest 3.0 1.0) 1.0 6.5 2.5 11.0 9.5 4.5 14.0 24.0 3.3 1,.0 16 .5 8.5 25.-0 (iv) Barisal Phase I 0.-3 0.7 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 6.0 10.7 10.0 15.0 6.0 21.0 (v) Karnafuli - - - 0.7 0.3 1.0 7.5 2.5 10.0 6.8 3.2 7.5 10.0 3.5 1-3.5 (vi) Upper Kusiyara - - - 1.5 0.5 2.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 5.5 2.0 7.9 3.1 1-1.0 Khowai - - - 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.6 2.0 5.8 2.2 8.0 (vii) 44.0 37 .5 12.5 5;0.0 (viii) Fabna Phase I ------4.5 1.5 6.0 33.0 11.0 15.0 5.0 20.0 18.0 6.c 24.0 (ix) Belkuachi - - - - - 3.0 1.0 4.0 3.5 11.0 8.2 3.8 1.2.0 (x) Mohuron- - - - 0.7 0.3 1.0 7.5 10.0 40.0 30.0 10.0 40.0 (xi) Dacca ]North ------30.0 1-66. 224.3 269?.2 93.6, 362.8 TFotal - Project Construction 33.6 5.6 .39.2 26.1 10.4 36.5 42.8 210.0 62.8 7 57.6

- Large-Scale Water Total 1.15.2 39~4.6 Projects 34.8 8.6 543.a 29.6 17.7 .47.3 45.7 2,5.5 71.2 1.69.3 63.4 232.7 279.4

II. Al,icultural Projects

(a) LivestLock (Cattle) :Eiprovenent UT Lirvestock 7.0 5.0C 12.0 Fa.rms 3/ 3/ 3/ 1.10 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 lt.0 3.0 7.0 (ii) Livestock (Pcultry) Improvesment - 2.0 1.0 3.0 Farms 3/1 2/ 3/ -.- - 2.0 1.0 3. - - - 10.0 10.0 20.0 (b) Credit, Medium and Long Term- - - 2 ,0 2.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 16.0 - - 2.0 7.0 19.0 16.0 35.0 Total - Agricultural Projects -- - 3~.0 3.0 6.0 12.0 10.0 22 .0C 4.0 lIT. Pb'uui_jProjet Inwlementation; Training alAssistanCe Pro -ma - - - 0.3 0.9~ 1.2 (a) Technical Assistance - Planiui Dep t. -- - 0.1 0.5 0l.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 2 3.7 7.0 4.0 U1.0 (b) Agricultural Training Program 1.1 0.-7 1.8 2,.4 1.3 3 .7 1.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 1.3 (c) Agricultr,A Extenision Trai ninag 2 5.4 1.0 6.4 16.0 3.0 19.0 Program 2.6 0.5 3.1 5.4 1.0 6.4 2.6 0.5 3 .1 (d) Plant Pr on SE!rvice 'rraining ~qti2 1.0 2.0 1.0 - 1.0 3.0 2.0 5.0 ) Program - - - 1.0 1.0 21.0 1.0 3.5 4.0 9.0D 13.0 (n)EPAPDA Geretral Consultan[s 1.0 2 .0 3.0 1.0C 2.0 3t.0 2.0 2.5 3 .5 1.0 2.5 41.8 14.6 30.3 18.9? 49.2 Total - Training Programs 4.7 3.2 7.9 9.9 5.7 i15.6 5.9 5.2 11.1 9.8

IV. Research ProgramLs 5;.0 15.0 18.0 7.0 25.0 (a) Agricultural. Research 1.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.7 2.7 5.0 1.0 6.0 10.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0) 6.0 Cb) Jute Research 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 11.0 6.0 17.0 21.0 10.2 31.0 Total -*Research Programs 1.3 0.6 1.9 3.0 1.7 14.7 6.0 2.0 8.0 Table 3.2 (Cont'd) Page 3

Disbursenents ($ Million)

1970/71 1971/72 1272/73 After 1972/73 Total Local ForeLgn Local Foreigni Local For eign Local Foreign Local Foreign Currencv Currency Total Currency Currenc-v Total Currenvcy CLurrency Total Currencv Currency Total Cur rency Curre,cv 'otal

V. Studies, Surveys and Investigations

(a) SPecial Purpose Studies 5I) Soil Survey 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 O.( 0.1 0.1 _ _ _ 0.2 0.3 0.5 (ii) InLard Fishe!ries Sulrvey - - - 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.' 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 (iii) Agricultural. Economaics - - - 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.: 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 o.6 1.0 (iv) Jute Industiy - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 - - - 0.1 0.3 0.4 (v) Surface Water Hydrology - 0.2 0.2 C).1 0.5 o.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.5 1.8 (vi) Geotechnics 0.1 0.1 0.2 C).1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.2 o.6 0.8 (vii) Seismology - - - 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - 0.1 0.1 0.2 (viii) Morphology and Sedimentology - 0.1 0.1 ------0.0 0.1 0.1 (ix) Construction MaterLals Studies 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.L 0.1 0,2 - - - 0.3 0.3 o.6 (x) Aerial Mapping 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 o.6 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 3.0

Total - Special Purpose Investigations 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.6 2.9 4.5 1.1 2.4 3,5 1.8 1.9 3.7 5.0 8.4 13.4

(b) Flood Control Investigations ;;Gang-e.s Barrage : S,outhwest Region Water Supply - - - (.5 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 4.0 5.5 (ii) Model of Souithwest Region - - - 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 - _ _ 0.6 1.4 2.0 (iii) Flood Models - - - - - 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.7 1.0 o.8 1.7 2.5 (iv) Ganges Etrablmaputra - Meghna Coniples -- o.6 1.4 2.0 0.6 1.4 2.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 3.5 5.0

Total - Flood Control Investigations - - - :L.4 3.6 5.0 1.9 4.6 6.,5 1.1 2.4 3.5 4.4 10.6 15.0

(c) Co grehensive Stucd, 71) General RevLew of Agriculture 0.1 0.1 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 ------0.1 0.3 0.4 (ii) Devel,opmert PotentLals of Regions 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.0 o.6 o.6 - - - 0.3 1,6 1.9 (iii) Flood Control Planrning 0.1 0.3 0.4 - 0.4 0.4 - - - - 0.1 0,7 0.8 (iv) Project/Program Preparation Activities 0.0 0.3 0-3 ------0.0 0. 0.3 (v) Powei Surveys 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 ------0.0 0,3 0.3 (vi) Analysis of Inter-Sectoral LirLks 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 - - *- - - 0.2 0,6 0.8 (vii) Progara Fornulation and Evaluation ------0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.3 (viii) Flood ConsuLting Croup - 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.D 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 o0.6 0.7 (iU) Systems Analysis and Methodolo- gical Guidance (Harvard Systems Study) - - - 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 - - - 0.2 0.8

Total -. Comprehensive Study 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.5 2.4 2.9 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.3 6.2 7.5 5 Total tWdies, Surveys and Investigations 0.8 2.6 3.4 3.5 8.9 12.4 3.3 8.9 12.2 3.1 4.8 7.9 10.7 25.2 35.9

OTA-L LONG-RIJN PROGRAM 41.6 15.0 56.6 49.0 37.0 86.o 72.9 51.6 124,.5 197.3 82.0 279.3 360.4 185.3 .i45.7

GRANDTDTAL ACTION PROGRAM 171.h 97.0 268.4 222.7 146.9 369.6 289.9 197.1 487.0 286.7 201.6 488.3 970.3 602.3 1612.6

L/ Disbursements for currenit agriculture inputs will take place. Projections have not been made beyond 1972/73. ,5/ insoursements fon- rural development programs will continue, on the scneh,due ou Qwe Fourth Five-Tear rlan. 5/ Project Preparation Actlvity inn Comprehensive Stud:T (see Table El.!).

Table 3.3

EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE Al]D WATERDEVELOPMENT

Proposals for an Action9Pro lm

;!orecast of DaLsbursements (Coanitnients A:Lready Made)

Project/Program Costs ($ Million) 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 Beyond 1972/73 Total Projects/Programs LocaL Foreign Local Poreign Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign CurrencY Currency Total Currency Currency Total Currency Curency Total Currency CurrencyToml Currercy Currency Total-

A. Short-Rmn quick Impact Pro n

TubeweLls (AIDC I) (IDA Credit) 3,5 5.6 9.1 6.5 8.9 15.4 6.5 4.9 11.4 5.3 3.4 857 21.5 22.8 44.6 iB. Lo rg-Run iProgas

-a Large oale Water Projects

(a) Prioect Pre ation and Final EIL nering i Dfacoa Southwest (MIA Credit) o.6 o.8 1.4 - - O.6 0.8 1.4 ii) Karnafuli &MuhLri (IDA Credit) 0,.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 _ - 1.5 2.4 3.9

Total - Project Preparation and Final Engineering Ill 1.8 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 - _ - 2.1 3.2 5-3

(b) Capital Investments Chandpur(IDA Credit) 8.O 2.6 10.6 7.5 2.0 9.5 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.1 1.4 17..6 5.1 22.7

Total - Large Scale Water Projects .9..L 4.4 13.5 8.2 3.0 11.0 1.3 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.1 1.4 19-7 8.3 28.0

TDtal CComitmentB Made 12,.6 10.0 22.6 14.5 11.9 26.4 7.8 5.7 13-5 6.6 3.5 10.1 41. 5 31.1 72.6

Table 3.4

EAST PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AND WATER DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

Commitments Beyond 1972-73 Project/Program Costs

Local Foreign

Large Scale water Projects

Capital Investments

i Ganges-Kiobaaai,&KU Sv Ii uu.A.LuL -- r-L % *z.v O'.i ii) Coastal Embankments -- Phase I, Group B, Stage 2 13.8 4.6 18.4 iii) Coastal Em'bankmnents -- Phase II, Stage 2 20.0 10.0 30.0 iv) Coastal FmDankments -- ha3ses I & II, Management Assistance, Part 2 2.6 1.3 3.9 v).%. Commilla-N4oakhali -- Pnase I 37.-II ... . _ ...... -%...... 12.5 ^ r' rlt 0V0Vf vi) Little Feni -- Phase I 22.5 7.5 30.0 vii) Sangu 37.5 12.5 50.0 viii) Barisal -- Phase I, Stage (c) 12.0 14.0 16.0

Total Capital Investments - 164.9.5 .4 224.3

Tab e L4.1

ZAST ?kCa5TkAN: ,SOSS D.7>tr'C_?=WDUCC AT C0ZTS.S FAC R COST 1959/50 - 1969/70 1iT13mor.sorpeezt; 17TVTJ-;Ee7s

Second Plarn Period Thifrd Plan Period L'a2/ti 19 c/LT 1961T7i/-2 137 5 -1707IM- l7w, TSZ; I9; LH758; 7 R 1A7 '.-,1 :nuat ure 0 L2 9,59C 10,lC1 9,765 10,598 10,,1:85 10,75.' 10,L67 11,5L254L5o 15,15- -' ajc= Craps 5,752 6,17 6,5c6 6,011 6,910 6,,82L 6,991 6,555 7,0L7 7,308 ' i Mior ^rops 7,77- 1,22'7 1,36c 1,:398 1,490 1, L55 1,386 1, :141 ,5LO 1,645 1,757 L7esto.k 882 90C5 928 946 868 i Fis!-n-g 970 95 ; :,026 1,037 1,oho 1,07C 1,099 1,1L2 1,170 1,212 1,214z 1; :1,295 1 7 Forestry 322 81 79 81 86 89 91 94 98 102 10o 2. Mining/Quwrrying - 1 2 14 14 9 4 8 8 10 10 3. IYa.facturiryg 91' 986 1,o514 1,110 1,165 1,210 1,L33 1,539 1,658 1,753 1,905 ij Large Scale 1406 L66 520 562 603 633 81 932 1,036 1,115 1,250 i; ) Sc31 Scale 506 520 53l6 5L8 562 577 592 607 522 638 65, L. Constrruction 2214 1814 386 386 797 892 8147 952 :1,075 1,289 1,L2L 5 . lec'ricity/GasM&ter/Sanitary Se:Crvices 20 21 26 51 91 131 128 135 149 169 18E 6. 'tranJportat.on/Storage/C

Source Central Statistical office and plannLn Ccmmission; Unprtlished Irforrriation. Tabla 4.2

PAKISTAN: GROlS DOY1-C PRODUCT AT COKSTAMT FACTOR COST 1959/65o - 1969/7'; -(llons > e ;7i5 rE Thi-rd Plan Period _ _econd Plan Period

20,t,0 20 ,2t :22,52"' 23,320 2,!.;19 1t,753 17,285 18,183 1',272 19,'1l 19,761 1. AUiculture 11,L19 11,712 11,&12 11,-9. 13,552 13,993 1,t691. i) MAjor Crops 9,63L 10,015 10,715 1),606 3, 503 2,316 2,3t81 2,58L 2,518 2,61; 2,e 3,051 3,259 itj Minor Crops 2,18w 2,229 1,333 4,1,20 1,50 3,,793 3,860 3-,92 4,o16 4,091 i.,165 1,2_S iii. Lv,.tock 3,719 1,143C 1,482 _,510 ~1,112 1,137 1,169 1,219Z 1,261 1,303 1,341 1, 3521 ?i~~~~~~'dn~~~~~~~~ 131 137 1144 150 158 166 171. Forcu ltry109 111 115 12 100l 17 131 137 LI4 L15 151 15S 2. Minii:Lg/QuarryiDg 70 82 88 ' 6 5,676- 6,164 6,541 2,513C 3,262 3,630 3,973 1,351 4,7L1 L,919 5, 3. M=aniacturLng 2,836 3,156 3,351 3,;70 3,99 4,40 4,772 1.) Le:rge Scale 1,155 1,860 2,191 2,496 1,515 1,555 1,595 1, 637 1,68) 1, 721 1,765 i.) Scall Scale 1,365 1,402 1,139 1,477 982 1,086 1,694 1,921 1,825 2,052 2,257 2,605 2,72cl 4. Construction 651 796 165 173 233 283 325 3L2 373 420 5. Elecl.ricity/Gas,Vater/Saaitary Stwvice,s 107 120 125 3,531; 04 2,219 2,316 2,424 2,761 3,033 3,18'5 3,362 6. fransportation/S;torag,e/Cccmnicaitons 1,857 2,006 :p, 6,351 6,696 1,211 L,489 4,856 5,109 5,337 5,707 5,936 7. Wholesale/Retail Trade 3,665 3,938 299 32'5 357 115 503 591 o98 830 8. BankLng/raxana:e 224 247 268 2,296i 1,917 2,017 2,068 2,130 2,181 2,240 9. Owvurahip of Dwellings 1,'772 1,814 1,860 1,467 1,677 1,790 2,:129 2,781 2,815 2,966 3,3110 1'0. Public Admeinistration/Defense 1,331 1,367 1,419 -218 3,0oL _.79 2, 365 2,45L 2,637 2,72 2,3 U. Sarvices 2,U2 2,198 54,;033 36,360 39,399 1,t08 42,958 L5,123 48,526 '51,425 Gross Dmeslic Product 31,472 33,117 35,079

and Unpublishe,d Information, Source: Centrail Statistical ofirice; MontbiLy Staitistical EBuletini, March 197'0; Table 4. 3

EAST PAOSTAIN: tCSS D:DOMMC PC1W)CT AT CURFLZNT FACTOR COST 1959/60 - 196/

Second P1&ni Fcriod_ Thrd Plan Porid 1959/60 1767 -TZ-.______, ____, ____507 1. AgricLlt.ure a,0J2 10,281 4 10,663 11,187 10,576 U,isl 12,765 1T,7^9 15,755 16,5 i' F-.Jor CrOP3 5,752 6,732 6,756 6 7,111 , 1;3 6,787 8,186 9,267 9,864 10, i' ) Yi Crope :1,287 1,399 l4 1,565 1,651 1,513 1,567 1,625 2, j56 2,5;21 2, 4L8 iii) LivLatock 882 1 915 9Uj 962 1,OLO 1,123 1,143 1,295 1,309 iv) FYishta :L,0b0 1,133 1,285 1,313 C 1,298 1,1472 1,8m13 1,6145 2,795 1,8149 1,637 v) Forestry 81 102 113 r 1365 153 161 166 ,96 212 23;2 2. OLnArj/i&rg - 2 3 5 1D0 , 5 5 3 * Mnuract.uring 912 1,058 1,LLL 1, 1ia 1,189 1,2 E3 i) Large Scale 1,657 1,78.3 1,877 2,133 I 406 500 518 57s 6'L6 677 973 1,079 1,156 ii) E;1"L Scale 506 558 1,3i53 563 563 573 6C6 6Q4 704 721 7R30 A Lt. Coatstrtion 214 197 407 297 8124 9CM 976o 1, La 1,263 1,633 v 5. Eaectricity/C.se/"ater/SaEdLtary Services 20 22 28 55 1i01 12S8 11 8 173 191 z04 I 6.. frensportatiOa/Sttorage/Cc-eic=at-i-t 900 991 1,043 1,13:L 1,220 1,264 1,339 1, 512 1,607 1,71nL8 A 7.. Ih1coealeAet.ail Trade 1,560 1,859 1,935 B 1,97.3 1,9';0 2,130 2,3LO 2,975 3,uo 3,'239 L 8. [iadngJrnur aace - - z - - - - ' 9., Camrahlp of lUe11.nlg- 935 956 1,017 0 1,075 1, 207 1,200 1,336 1Jg29 1,461 10. Public AdcianrtrationA)efefs 195 232 243 262 267 405 334 375 1443 563 11. Servicoc 701 726 776 8215 &7> 911 9147 -j91,L34 l _ Oz-o8i DCeStiC Prodact 11, 489 16,323 17,225 18,0415 18,182 19,777 21,713 25,306 26,8$14 28,T36

Sowce: Central Statistical of(fice .nd rl3ani CCcLsaioi; UMubliebed Information. Table 4.4

P,krISTAN- GtOSS DO,TlSI'!C PRODUCT AT CUR.RT FACTOR COST 1959/60 - 1969170

Second Pl;. Poriod -L-c ?1a:-. eriod ]i959/6tD1S>60/f,l 19c,'/7Q3 Z r~F,/o197E 1-5,;)O7 -/ -

1. Aricalture 16,753 18,665 18,879 19,'752 20,075 21,919 23,337 27,,.9 28, 7Li 31,3L. i) Ka 4cyr Cropqs 9,63L 13i,8633 IC,535 11,501 11,378 12,517 13,855 175, 16,,2C2 16,025 ii) Ginro 2,18D 2,299 2,676 2,515 2,c68 2,9'3 3,073 L,29 i 7677 ,5: N iii) Livestock 3,719 3,979 L,o564 L,L65 6,248 4,322 L,397 L,963 5,536 6,069 0 iv) Fi lng i,111 1,212 1,368 1,.396 1,588 1,970 1,7e3 1,9L6 1i,952 2,083 T v) Foreu7ry 109 13l2 1V6 175 193 207 229 270 269 332

2. Iirnig/Quarring 70D 8l6 91 105 12L 150 156 163 170 185 y E 3. 1nanf acturirig 2,930 3,316 3,713 1,:165 6,603 5,042 5,621 6,235 6,,627 ?,625 T i) large Scale 1,565 1,883 2,236 2,621 3,006 3,381 3,837 L,325 L,807 5,6W1 il) Sml l Scale 1,36.5 1, 4'3 1,J77 1,'56 1,597 1,661 1,I61J 1,91O 2,020 2,18! L. Construction 651 801, 1,009 1,l36 1,774 2,057 2,080 2,393 2,T13 3,L31 ?

5. Klectricity/Gas/Mater/Sanitary Services 107 12L 133 162 258 328 377 L42 482 5i5 L 6. ranspartation/Sttorage/cmzrniCationDa 1,857 2,09L 2,158 2,335 2,568 2,609 3,174 3, 962 4,,l8 4,404 A 7. iWholesale/Retail 'rrade 3,665 4,179 4,440 6,6579 5,109 5,654 6,159 7,315 7,602 8,181 L 8. BmnMng/IsLrance 22,!6 260 289 317 360 164 479 632 769 936 9. (raorahip of' DweLlings 1,772 1,831 1,915 2,021 2,105 2,290 2,387 2,726 2,830 2,977 10. Public AtanistrationA)efeenae 1,331 1,lJ30 1,493 1,560 1,812 2,025 2,,845 3,L64 3,656 6,151 la. Ser*ices 2,112 2,231 2,376 2_65 2,611 2.67 305 3_ 9 3,L657 3 _ Grcsat Desistic, Product 31,472 34,818 36,522 38,72 61,399 45,525 49, 680 58,193 61,598 68,,127 73, 645

SourcA: Ceatral Statistical office; Monthly Statistical Bli.etit, Yarch 1970 , and Staff Estimatea. Tab.e )4,5

EAST PAkISTAIN: OVERALL AND SECTORAL GRrMi RATEs 1959/60 - 1969/70 (GDP at Conastant Factor Cost s

Third Plan Period C d Rates of Gorawth 1560/61 1964/65 IE76x '; i7- - 677) - y 'P ond -. L/ 1. Agiculture 6.1 - 1.1 2.6 - 2.7 10.3 - 0.,8 6.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 2. Mirdxr£g/Quarrying 150.3 - 67.0 100.0 - 25.,O - - .4 - 3. FumifacturIng 8.2 4 .1 18.5 7.4 7.8 5.7 8.7 5.8 9.5 7.7 L. Con.struiction _ 25.1 11.9 - 5.2 12.1 13.0 20.0 9.8 30.0 9.7 19.2 5. aectricit/Cja//Water/'Sanit4ru Servicea 5.0 23.2 15.Li 6.3 11.,2 14.2 11.9 42.0 11.3 25.0 6. Transport /'itrag&/Ccgzuzdcatia - 2.1 4.8 7.d 0.8 - 2,3 8.6 3.7 4.3 3.6 L.0 7. WholeSale-/1.etail trade 8.2 1.1 4.Li 7.6 5.3 2.5 1.7 4.5 4.3 4.4 8. Barnklng/Inrxrance ______9. 0esrshl.) of Dwellings 2 .4 1.9 2.1 2 2.8 2.2 2.5 .4 2.2 2.3 2.3 10. P.ablic AdIniatration/Defenfe 1A4.4 5.6 - 20.7 5.3 17,.7 20.0 4.3 13.0 4.1 8.4 1U. Services 2 '9 3.2 3-0 3.5 3.1 3.2 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

Gross D e61tic Product 5.7 O.6 3.4 0.9 87 2.5 5.2 4 .3 4 .1 L4.2

SAcce: Table 2.2.2 Table 4.6

WMT PA1S&N: WVMALL AN SEC-IORAL CG"s'w RAM> 1959/oO - 1969/70

Thi-rd Plam Period _____ undRAtes of C-crwt.n 1,960/61 1964/65 7 ;9 =. 5 -- a / h Second ?an ?er-'Iod Fi 19,ar_i7o7;

;. Agrlcultetre - 0.1 5.3 0.5 5.5 LL.7 6.2 4.1 3.8 5.5 L.6

2. Kining/Qtwxryimg 17.1 8.9 9.8 - 3.8 3.7 4.3 12.0 3.8 7.8

3. Xanufact'uinm 12.8 9.9 °.5 8.3 5.6 6.2 9.6 U1.7 6.0 8.8

>ConstruetLcrn ~43.6 14.3 - 5.3 12.6 7.L 20.3 8.5 19,.3 8.! 5. E-ectri-ity/Gas/Wataer/SanLt4.y Services 15.4 2:L.9 15.1 5.6 8.7 12.6 10.4 llj.9 9.9

6. Traxporisation/Stara,ge/Cogmnmmcation LL.2 ?. 4 1,9.1 19.3 1.9 5.4 11.2 5.9 11.1 8.s

7. Whclege.le/Retail Trade 21.2 7.9 4.6 6.6 3.2 7.7 3.0 8.5 5.0 6.7

e. Ba g/g:nsurance - ., - _ _

9. Ownership of Dwellinrgs 2.7 3.6 3.2 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1

10. Public Ackinistratio.n/Defenae _- 1s4.3 26.1 24.6 8.2 8.9 13.0 8.4 15.8 12.0

11. Services 4.8 ]..1 - 4.1 L.3 .1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2

Choaa Domestic Pr"tLct 4.9 .7.1 3.1 7.7 7.4 6.8 5.9 6.4 6.1 6.2

SOUrce: Table 2.2.1 'Table 4.7

PAISTAS: OVERAiL AM]) REGIONAL INVFSTMENT RATES 1963/64 - 1969/70 rcenVtofGDP at ciurFeFnt T )orosT

Third Plan Period

I. nvestment Rates

A. PAXISTAN

1. Fixed Capital Forn;ation 17.4 18.3 15.L IL., 15.2 114.5 13.:1 i) Privazte Sector ( 8.8) ( 5.2) ( 8.0) ( 7.2) ( 7.3) ( 6.8) ( 6.2) ii) Public Sector ( 8.6) 9.1) ( 7-.) ( 7-3) ( 7.9) ( 7-7) ( 6.9) 2. Private I]nves1ment as Parcentage of Total Inavesti;ent 50.6 50.14 5-1.9 49.7 47.9 46.6 47.14

B. W.ST PAKISTAN

1. Fixed Capital Formation 22.0C 23.6 19.8 18.2 16.9 16.3 i) Private Sector (13.0) (13.2) (11.6) (10.4) (1.0.0) ( 9.4) ( ) ii) PubliLc Sector ( 9.C)) (l).4) ( 8.2) ( 7.8) ( 6.9) C 6.8) ( ) 2. Privrate Investment as Percentage of Total Investment 59.2 55.9 58.5 57.1 59.2 58.1 51.9

C. EAST PAKISTAN

1. Fi.e-d Capital Formation 11.3 )10.7 9.0 9.2 u1.8 11.6 i) Privzate Sector ( 4.3) ( 14.8) ( 4-4) (L4.1) ( 4-1) C 4.0) ( ii) PubLic Sector ( 7.C)) ( 5-9) ( 4.6) (5.1) :( 7-7) ( 7.6) ( ) 2. Private Investment aa Percentage of Total Investment 37.8 145.1 148.5 14L.2 35.0 34.6 29.6

II. EAST PAKS=TAN'S SHARE IN:

Total Capital Formation 28.14 21 .3 25.L4 27.6 33.9 34.1 41.8 i) Private Sector 21.2 22.7 23.8 2L.6 24.8 25.3 26.1 ii) PWblic Sector 35.8 28.0 27.2 30.7 142.3 41.8 55.9

Soiurce: Staff Estimates Table 4.8

FOREIGN MERCHNDISE TRADE Mtil'ons of rupees)

Total TDt&1 Trade Imports Exparts Year Imports Exports Balance I St Percent West Percent Ec.st Percent West Percent _(M)_ (X-M) Paki3tan of rotal Pakistan of Total PakLstan of Total Pakistan of Total

First Plan 19?7/6 1,325 1,781L - 459 361 27.2 9,64 72.8 1,0o4 58.4 7142 L1.6 19j6/57 2,335 1,608 - 727 819 35.1 1,516 614.S 909. 56.5 6198 1.5 1957/5£ 2,050 1,422 - 628 736 35.9 1, 314 64.1 988 69.5 434 30-5 1958/59 1,578 1,325 - 253 554 315.1 1,0025 64.9s 881 66.5 141414 33.5 !95)/60 2,461 1,843 - 618 655 26.6 1,806 73.14 1,080 58.6 763 L1.14

Second Plan 1960/61 3,188 1,799 -1,3B9 1,014 31.8 2,173 68.2 1,259 73.0 540 30.0 1961/62 3,109 1,843 -1,266 873 28.1 2,236 71.9 1,301 7C.6 53 29.14 1962/63 3,819 2,247 -1,572 1,018 26.7 2,800 73-3 1,2149 55.6 998 414.14 1963/64 4,43,0 2,299 -2,131 1,449 32.7 2,982 67.:3 I,224 53.2 1,075 46.8 1961h/65 5,3714 2,408 -2,966 1,702 31.7 3,672 68.3 ],J268 ;2.7 1,1140 47.3

Thi-rd Plan 195/66 14,2Ci8 2,718 -1,490 1,328 31.6 2,880 68.14 IL,511 5.5.7 1,c014 114.3 1966/6.7 5,192 2,913, -2,279,2 1,567 30.2 3,626 69.13 L,575 j14.l 1,-338 45.9 1967/6k8 4,65;5 i, 2512 -1,543- 1,32 28.5 3,327 7.45 ,... L7.14 1,6145 52.6 1?68/69 4,8597 a, 240iL -1,673,2 1,850 37.8 3,047 62.2 :I,514o 147.5 1,700 52.5 l 965/769 4,078 2,749 -1,329 1,549 38.0 2,529 62.0 lJ . 14.57I53 5Z.5 1969/TO 3,864 2,692 -1,172 1,176 30.4 fft 6.6 ;1. L,3;3 48.4

Ji DaLta on exports excludes re-exports irom 1967/68. Re-exports in 1968/69 yore8Ra. 224 and 66 million respectivrely. /2 The trade bELlanoe hbas been adjUited to exclude some double coruntin of exportsa on acaulnt of short sipmnentEi. These awounts are unallocable and ir; 1967/68 arLd 1968/69 were Rs. 12.90 and Ets. 16.47 uillion respectively.

0ource: Customw, dataL from the Centrral Statistical Office. Table 4.9

EST PAKISTAN: PUBLIC PLAN DEVELOPMENT IXPNiDITIURES Lliions of rupees; current price75T-

Revised Plan Third Plan Total Achievement Allocation 1965/66 1966/67 196 7/68 1968/69 1969/70 ThLird Plan __

Agriculture -2,121 150 207 293 341 401 1,392 66

Manufacturing I Mtining 2,414 254 290 369 564 348 1.,825 76

Water St Power 3,510 331 543 721 744 348 3,099 88

Transport St Camnunication 2,250 206 185 237 2359 294 1 ,161 5'2

Physical P:LannLng &kHousing 1,008 79 126 138 131 167 61 ' 64

Education St Training 1,238 86 130 160 161 245 782 63

HeaLLth & Medical Services 563 75 68 88 107 1 10 448 80

Manpower Training 4&Labor 46 2 5 5 6 6 24 52

Social WeLCare 40 1 2 4 5 13 25 63

Work Programme 1,200 101 150 183 196 194 824 69

Gross Total 14,389 1,285 1,706 2,198 .2,494 2,538 10,221 71

Less Debt Service 143 153 256 358 429 1 ,339 _

Toloal Development Expenditure Net of Debt Service 1,123891,553 -1942 . S @09 18382 62

Source: Planning Commission for FY 1 966 throuLgh 1969 andL Goverrmient of East Pakistan Planning Department for FY 1970. Tabl3oI. 10

EAST PJKISTANt PROVINCIAI, GOvEPmTfl'NT REVFNUE A!NDEXPEh'DITURE g

1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 Provisional

A. ',-uo Account

I %. v, Ilu(* o82O 937 912 o,u cv/izic.5 I a'rayes 288 321 339 326 39! o1 contral Taxes 540 616 573 572 621

Nyn¢-Thx lNuvunum 267 263 336 438 512

i rt It(!caipts 138 160 250 325 37'8 20 22 25 29 25 109 81 63 84 113

'ITXtal RfcvciueS2Y 1095 1200 1250 1336 1531

'n-kv ...j.n.t Rovonue v655 5 737 951

Is.bt. SerV I ca3/ 20 28 52 39 61 i.iucaLion 122 138 ±V) -1 iI,-Ilt.h 51 51 62 57 81 hl.lwr 4s62 317 379 [56 597

lv vc2tont IlevLnue Expenditure 226 331 377 L92 567

T tal Revniiuo Expendtture3/ 681 665 1021 1229 1518 1'. lnue Account Surplus2,2/ ?1,4 335 229 107 13

p .t 4 Account W !k v loiwont Capital Expenditure 767 1297 1180 1716 1698 ;) rect 245 268 286 374 438 IA,aols 491 1024 894 1371 140G 'ther 31 5 - 2 L2 Loss: Shortfall - - - -31 -1°0

N; :EnDvelloFFant (napital Expendtture-k/ 'I 7]17. 32-3 ?Nuii-IX've2opmrnt Lo.ns anid AivancesY - - 39 95 76 Totnl Capital Expon.dlture 765 1291 1393 1843 1736

Fiiancod by

li. vunue Accouit Surpl s 2e14 335 229 107 13 Iinfu.ndod Dobt (Not) . 10 6 8 10 10 F&.posits uni Ilomitt6nces (Net) / 1i9 106 22 149 58 I,o:up ReCoverios 73 116 l7 169 221 Nou-Dank Borrowings 4 14 . _ 3

rotal _9/ 350 577 376 335 305 volrall Deficit l15 71h 1017 lo8 l13V

I/ Accounts for 1965/66 through 1968/69 have been revised. Net of grants fro,m …--G… - me…t. NNet of interest payments to Central Government. /Net of' loan repayments to Central Govermnent. / State trading schemes, construution of storage faci'ities, etc. Tr;nsfurs to auricipalitioe, port fiLnds, etc. 7/ Largely post office deposits and provident furds. 0,' Includos accretions to and expenditures from reserve funds. Net of tratfers, grants and loans fromt, Centrkl Government.

Source: Central Government, Ministry of Finance and Government of East Pakistan, Finance Department. Table 14.11

EAST PAKISTAN: TAX REVENJES (millions of Rupees).

1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69!/ 1969/70 2!

Provincial Tax Revenues 288 321 a 326 394 Land Revenues 134 147 149 130 185

Agricultural Income Tax 16 18 18 20 18

Provincial Excise 17 18 18 18 20

Stamp 58 68 74 72 78

Registration 15 18 18 21 20

Motor Vehicles 10 12 13 13 18 Reha.bilitation Charges 7 4 4 5 5 Other 32 36 45 48 50 Share of Central Taxes 514 616 572 621

Total Tax Receipts 828 912 898

1/ Preliminary actual

2/ Budget

Source: Government of East Pakistan, Finance Departmcnt Table ;.12

WEST PAKISTAN: T9( REVENUES 7Tmillions of rupees

Total Third 12X/66 1966/67 1967/68 15968/69 1969/70/1 Plan 1965-70

Provincial Tax Revenuets 369 428 379 4214 450 2,050

Land Revenue /2 114 151 90E 82 91 528 Agricu,ltural Income Tax 4 5 5 5 24 Excise Duties ,L40 42 42 1414 46 214 Stamp Duties 55 66 52 74 75 322 Registration 54 I5 6 6 26 Motor Vehicle 64 66 79 77 714 360 Entertainment Duty 33 41 45 ) ) ) ) Property Tax 37 32 40 ) 136 ) 153 ) 576 ) Other 18 20 21 ) ) ) )

Share of Central Taxes !529 607 546 ,$8 617 2867

Total Tax Receipts 1398 5 92 9'92 _1 7 4,5'17

/1 Revised estimate. 7:> Net of irrigation share.

Sources CiovernmnLt of' West Pakistan, Finance Department. Table 4 .1 3

PAKISTAN: PROVINCIAL GOVERNMJ!NTS' DEBT SERVICE TO CENTRAL GOVERM{ENT (Ril-lions of r-pess! 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69T/1969/702/Total Third Plan (Rovised) 1965 - 1970

Interest

East Pakistan 212 262 306 388 h6l 1.630 West Pakistan 266 306 288 330 lb03 1<9 TOTAL 7869 m 7-15

RepaymLent Of Principal

East Pakistan 60 116 76 90 157 L99 West Pakistan 62 66 66 101 157 j90 TOTAL 122 F2 T5T91 b319

Total Provincial DebtU Service to Central Government 600 751 774 909 1178 4212

Source: Governments of Fast and West Pakistan. Finance Departments

1/ Revised 2/ Budget Table 5.1

EAST ?AXBT-AN ..LAND. UTILIZATION (Mllion Acres)

5 year 5 y-ear -a&veraoe avera,,e lAncl Uso arid Cropping Inten-,.t1½ endin, endin- --_ __ )159-601______196'i-65 196?7-63 lci7;?-75 l9 ''-9D

Nor.-..ul' i.va te4 Lar3-

Foz(-5n L 5!46 5,46 5. 4 5. 56 5.60

No'~av- flblor cultivation 5.59 5.97 6.24 6 40A 6 ?G

CuitivacKte wastL,e 1.

Current. fallowr. 1. 3? 0.93 0.73 0.50 0.20

Net cropped area 20.33 20.98 21.57 22.00 22.50

Totel 21.65 21.91 22.!43 22.50 22.7,.0

Total Crop Area writh Multiple Crovping 25.91 27.88 31. 44 31.9yi 35.00

CromA.rri Tntensitv. < 128 133 145 145 31 5

Souree: Conpiled end estimated h,, Plnnnin-' Depnrt_riret from the rata of thei e of Statistics end the Planninc Dcpart!r.o!nt. Table v .2

EAST PAKISTAN! - THE PROVINCIAL AVERAGE MONTHLY RETAIL PRICE OF COARSE RICE

Mornth L-Year Averag, 1959-60 196o-61 1961-62 1962-6:3 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 196,8-69 1969-70 1 '59/60 /64

July 27.57 28.19 28.85 24.99 27.35 28.49 23.33 29.'51 39,17 39.48 39.06 41.60 August 25.61 26.56 25'.97 24.61 25.29 25.60 23.32 28.34 38.24 35.54 37.73 4:2.L0 September 25.88 26.94 25;.03 26.19 25.74 25.51 24.81 28.99 40.69 35.87 38.03 4L4.00

October 25.52 26.37 23.06 25.86 26.40 25.92 23.92 28.40 38.82 35.57 35.73 4 5.50 November 24.53 24.31 21.98 25.12 26.36 24.88 23.19 28.414 35.92 33.70 35.02 W1K.60

December 23.17 22.44 21.97 23.69 :25.39 22.38 22.39 25.79 34 .33 31.57 34A.63 34.80

January 23.79 24.06 23.14 23.75 :25.80 22.18 23.07 26.17 36,52 31.85 36.06 35.60 February 24.37 25,.00 23.84 24.22 :27.01 21.76 25.11 28.78 39.,23 31.87 37.56 n,,a. March 25.34 27.06 24.30 25.46 28.46 21.44 26.09 30.26 39.30 32.79 41.92 n a. April 25.73 28.06 24.86 25.57 '28.76 21.40 26.85 32.81 40.92 34 .08 4o.60 n.,a. May, 26.63 28,.94 2';.35 27.23 :28.94 22.74 28.92 33.35 40.77 35.22 40.4O n,a. Jurne 27.74 30,.84 26.15 28.05 29.81 23.85 29.72 35.08 40.92 38.17 4L3.20 n.,a.

YEHRLY AVERAGE 25.49 26.56 24.54 25.39 :27.11 23.85 25.06 29.66 38.74 34.64 313.83 40.79

Sources ]Food Department Statistics as given 'by ths Planming Depa.-tment of the Government of East; Pakistan. n.a. - Not Available. Table 5.3

EAST l'AK][STAN - AVAULABILITY OF FOODGRAINS rOR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, 1955/56 TO 1968/69

------…------…------(Thousand Tons) ------…------Availability fromi Total Population Provincial Production Provincial Production Import Availability of Qua1ntity, Index Year (illion) Rice Wheaeat RTota Rice and 'heat (Ibs.) (l9<5-56 - 100

]L955/56 50,('6 6,380 22 6,,402 5,7142 20 5,762 149 21 1'70 5,932 265 1000

1956/57 51.0C4 8,190 23 8,213 7,371 21 7,392 521 69 5'90 7,i82 350 132

1957/58 52.08 7,600 22 7,622 6,840 20 6,860 556 118 670 7,530 324 122

1958/59 53.13 6,920 25 6,945 6,228 22 6,250 379 87 4656 6,716 283 107

:1959/60 54.1]8 8,1480 29 El,509 7,632 26 7,658 464 148 612 8,270 342 129

:1960/61 55I9a 9,519 32 9,551 8,567 29 8,596 464 234 698 9,294 372 140

1961/62 57.O 9, 465 39 5',504 8,519 35 8,554 206 202 1408 8,962 349 132

'1962/63 59.: 8,730 44 8,774 7,857 140 7,897 542 894 1,1436 9,333 352 123

1963/64 6 1 .1 /a 10,1456 34 10, 490 9,419 31 9,450 346 656 1,002 10,452 383 144

19614165 63.La 10,337 34 10,371 9,303 31 9,334 95 250 345 9,679 344 130

1965/66 65.c)± 10,335 35 1C0,370 9,301 31 9,332 360 529 889 10,221 352 133

L966/67 67.G/ 9,1424 58 59,482 8,1482 52 8,53h4 432 6547 1,079 9,613 321 121

1967/68 69.(- 10,995 58 11,053 9, 896 52 9,948 308 712 1,020 10,968 356 134

.1969/'69 71.(0- 10,9(0 92 1C),992 9, 810) 83 9,893 236 1984 1,120 11,013 347 131

1969/70 73 /-a 11,710 100 11,810 10,539 90 10,629 465 1,235 1,700 12,329 378 143

a As per revised tentative popFulation orojections by the Ilanning ommission

Note: Availability fc - dornestic consumptior froin Provincial prodluction has been arrived at by deductirig 10% rrom production for seed, feed, wastage, etc.

'ources: Planning Department utilizing the data or the FoodL Department and of the Directorate of Agriculture, Government of East Pakistan. Taule 5.

EAST rAIISTAN -- t'. OUAE tFi'P.;.t UPLUVSCIRO (million acres)

1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69

Rainy Season -- Mlain Crops

Aus -- Early Rainy Season

Rice 6.64 7.32 6.96 8.22 7.66 Jute 1.66 2.09 2.33 2.ho 2.22 Sugarcane 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.41 0.41 Tobacco 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0-11

Total 9.90Q8.t 9.81 11 1) in0 L

Aral -- PICk.1-lL £d.-IIj Seson

Ri-ceL2.1 14'.6 UV 14.VU 1L4. 40

% of Cultivable Land 65.2 64.1

Total Rainy Season 235.77 244t 23.76 25.71 2-.69

% of Cultivable Land i114.4 110.0

Boro/Rabi -- Dry Season

Boro Rice 1.05 1.14 1.39 1.53 2.02 Rabi Crops Wheat 0.13 0.14 0.18 0.19 0.29

O;4 Seedc Rape and Mustard o.46 0.47 0. 1L9 0.53 0.55

QRZ:0.LIILJ* *A %.Ij r .J .1) VJ. I ) Linseed 0.53 o.54 0.44 0.37 0.36 rriuud 'Nubs 0.23 0.f O.i 0.20 V.83 Cotton 0.37 0.27 0.36 0.36 0.34 Total Oilseeds 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.80 o.84 Pulses 0.81 0.83 0.89 0.90 0.92 Total Boro/Rabi Season 2.69 2.82 3.19 3.42 4.07 % oI Cultivable Land 13.5 .i Perein-al Cros Tea 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 (Sugarcane as above) Total Cultivable Iand 22.5 22.5 Table e East Pakistan

Production of Main Agricultural Crops

P r o d u c t i o n Third Bench Plan Croo Iiark 196li/o5 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 Target

(-- million tons -- ) Rice a) Aus 2.50 2.92 2.67 3.07 2.68 b) Aman 7.26 6.80 5.92 6.81 6.87 c) Boro 0.58 0.62 0.83 1.11 1.61 Total 10.20 10.34 10.34 9.42 10.99 11.16 13.39

W,heat 0.04 0.03 0.04 6 0.06 0.09 0.11 Gram, Pulses 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.27 0.28 0.24 0.31

Edible Oils 0.16 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.27 Potato 0.40 0.48 0.59 0.70 0.71 0.73

Sweet Potato 0.41 0.45 0.72 n.a. n.a Fruits and Vegetables 2.65 2=21 219 2.34r.a. 2.35 3.38

Suc,arcane L.o 6.23 7R5 8 .07 7 .59 7 .A 7 .0,

I _e 1 o '.'r''A -- ) A.ale

Jute 6.20 5.33 6.36 6.40 6.72 5.88 8.u Snnnhemn ~0.025 OeO23 0.026 0.023 0.026

Sawflie.EA n ()9cnn (=- loIn I pounds. = ~ 'AI ',0

_e3 J.) vv U4.3U O)f.O 'O.UL)50

Soburc: Agricltur an Fo Setin P 4aniComm i sion00

Source: Agriculture and. Food Section, Planning Commission Tabl6 5.6

EAST PAKISTAN - RICE AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD

(in millions)

1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 AUS

Area, million acres 6.64 7.32 6.96 8.22 7.66 %'of total rice area 29.1 3Vi7 31.1 33.6 31.8 Yield par acre, mds 10.2 10.9 10.h 10.1 9.5

Production, million tons 2.5; 2.9 2.7 3.07 2.f68 % off total rice production 21,.2 28.2 28.3 27.9 21 .(0

m."av Al.6 n a, .r67 . .o6 iLJ4.68 % of total rice aroa 66.3 63.4 62.7 60.0 60.o ie'l' per acre, MO's 13.1 12.6 11.5 12.6 13.(

rroduction, million tons 7.3 6.8 5.9 6.8). 6.117 % of total rice production 70.3 65.8 62.9 62.1 61.;

B')RO

Area, million aares 1.05 1.1I4 1.39 1.53 2.0? % of total rice area h. 6 4.9 6.2 6.3 8.?) Yield per acre, mds 14e8 1b.8 16.3 19.7 21.17

Production, million tons o.6 0.6 1.11 % of total rice production 5-6 6o 8 10.0 )i1. r

TOtal rice area (alL seasons), m..4l11ion acres 2.8. 23.1n3 2.biL 24 .801 234.7

A JutaJ ri ce prJluLL(.1 1ct (aLIn seasons), million tons 10.1 10.3 9A4 10.99 11.19

S iurce: Department of Agriculture Table~%7

I.At. n A v-rI"A I t?Th'Amn AnV~A fl1nr%Tr%M,yrArT AIMr rVYy?Tr

XAW rLAfl.L*J1AU1 - flfl.LIA ALnXJAIj L -%4VJL.LJJUJ±J. J± IA IJ I±.LJ4

kLlinthusanusj

Area., thousand acres 132 136 180 192 290 279

Production., thousand tons 34 n 35 58 58 92 n.a.

Yisld, maunds per acre 7.0 7.0 8.8 8.2 8.6

g/ Includes 21,000 acres of Mbxi-Pak varieties.

2 Estimated.

bJV AL W,%7 I L rn.L.LL.LL, L" V P.ais ta L'.LjasLA." Wt.L . LUIA U Government of Pakistan., Islamnabad. Tab} e 5.8

p JAL-&J AIL

FOREI(}N DciiANGB RECUS FROx rUieCHaDISE EPORT-S

196h,/605 1967/68 Million Millici) PRs % PRs

R,.r Jute 926 38.5 ?98 ?8.). Peii -,otton 331 13.8 LJ9 1h.8 Ra,! Wool 78 . 3 1 .3 Ri:e l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3i74 9 123 9 Oth.er Prituary^-omr.odities 250 .... 1. 181 6

' ,o;.:-cli ti c s 1,70? 70.8 1,50, 5l . Ju.. iTs acturev 320 13.3 590 20.8 ,o,ton e es 188tacsu,ltiU 7.8 39( i3.9 Ot icr Mn',ufnu'rcturczF 261. 1c0.9 L16 12' .6

'T,'hi ' enu;."ac~'.trc>:796 32.0 1 ,9!9 -3 Fr i 5,ht 1.n ja3t-i',n-r. -68 -2.8 -109 -3.8

To'iYa ;,chcnndise 2.b03 JOD 2.81!i To',-, I of Juitte and Jvte N *anuf~ct. ues 1,2116 51.8 1,JI t,-.9

Son:rc IBRD,- Resort '.;o. SA = ?., cLr""I n V Econo,,ic.- ;n a;.v~ PIIpz t of Pa-Listan, Volu-.l, I.. The rnin Report (April. 18, 2969) Tabhl e ;9

rAm,r PtAT(ZfPAM = TrTY' A I' PVRnvTlG'TTON?J An VTV.Tn

AcgeU Produuu cLtII fl.eU per acre (Thousands (Thousands (in Bales) of Acres) of Bales)

1960-61 1,i8 5s670

1961-62 2,061 6,969 3.38

1962-63 1,723 6,300 3.65

1963-64 1,700 5,875 3.45

1964-65 1,660 5.328 3.51

1965-66 2,090 6,693 3.20

1966-67 2,332 6,862 2.95

1967-68 2,h00 6,850 2.85

1968-69 2,219 5,881 2.65

TOhVt 1 ftale 11'0 bhsQ

so^ tvce : mn-n-i n gr - Table 5O10

WORLD EXDORTS OiF IT7TE A'%?A-'T`REUST

dnnual Averagges of uac' L. i.caved re. ic a-.d :'erce5itage Ircreases over the Averaga cf t'.e P-cedi..- Period

Of 70I)rVelopinL Cowntrics'eot al Year World Dfevoleoed Countr~..is Dek2elo,:ties n r,.a _ ak i as;2r. 7 --- ~~ToiT~ncrease 1000 TonInczeasse Total rIcrease 'CO0 Tions Zahcrease 'C03 or.s , ncreas( '000 Tor.s

1950-1953 656 - 110 - l718 _ _ L95Lh-1e58 1,037 21.0 1li7 6. S'9 23.0 660 i5. 60 L959-1963 t 1,178 13.6 118 0.5' 1,060 ;5.2 81L9 -1.3 211 251.7 .961-;59672 1,327 12.6 13 2J 11.9' 1,195 12.7 680 3.7 315 L9.3 'akistan's share ,r WZrorld TotaL 23.7

'ote: Tons refer to nietrLc tons .mhe minrus sign refers to a decline.

i/ The fiures for the year i967 are prulminary. /Of0Which Western Europe 131

ource: I:ndustrial Fibers ard AEJE, Statistical Yearbook of the EuroDean Jute industry, various issues. Itioe5.11j

EXPORTS 07 RA'W'.fUiTE A'ND A L-,,.r; TR S FROMY Tl;, Cr; P ODU0IMDGCUN2iL;S

Yearly Averages of the 1dicFtu-^ 'eriods MW: 0hpnges cver the Averago3s of Each ;recedirn Period oa b/ niaC/ Others- Total Pakistand/ Thail.21n4- Indi, .'000 Cons '000 Tons '0(X) Tons % '000 Towu 'C00 Tons 3 17 974. - -_ 8 - 1950-I953 - Share of Total, % 98 (Om6)

- 8 907 -6.5' 1!?5h-i958 887 -.6.8 11 - Share of Total, % 98 1 1.3 11 876 -3.1, 1,959-1963. 730 -17.7 121. - Share of TotasL % 83 :66.1 26 38 1,127 2e.7 196L-1966''1 7L1 1.5 322 Share of Total, % 66 259

exnort-ed a/ Jute only. In addition, Pakistan is rer,orted to have kenaf in recent years. - 20-30 thoousand tons of bl.lMostly kenaL. sm2,11 cl Nepal, Congo (Kinshasa), Burna and Brazi.l. It excludes quantities exported by Mainland China. d/ Preliminary.figxues for the year 1966 !Yonthlv Rporoits; 'Source: .FAO: Trade Yearbooks; Bank of' T.hailancid. §entra].Statistical Offices of Pakisvan, 'o.nLy Sta; Ls;ical Bulletin. Table 5 12

EAST PAKISTAN - AREA AND SUGARCANE PRODUCTION

(in thousands)

Area Production Yield per Acre (acres) (tons) (tons)

196h/6'5 356 6.231 17.5 1965/66 379 7,550 19.9 1966/67 h1l 8.070 19.q 1967/68 h12 7,589 18.h 1968,/69 Ln7 7,297 17-9

AdoptedXoa : from Aegricultu+-e',Jinig -ini stri, '%f 4hm jviculti-re and Works, Government 3f Pakistan. Tab-Le 5.13 r)

EAST PAKIS'L'AN - DA'fl ON SUGAR INDIJUS'lY

a/ Produiction Capacity of Sugar as of May 1i, 1Y70

Mills Sanctioned or Okwned by In Operat;ion in Construcaion

'000---- tons of Sugar------

E.P.I.D.C. 122 25

Private 2 7 5

tllot,al 1)49 30

Plant;s as of May 11,1.970

-nu------number of Plants ------

R.P.I.D.C. 10 3 (incltudi-ng one under expan3ion)

Private 4 1 (Expansion)

'Lotal 1). 4

Production

Cane Crushed Sugar Produced Average Recovery Rate

…------'(00 tons …

1966/67 E.P.I.D.C. 1,238 96.4 7.87

Private 198 15.6 8.4to

1967/68 E.P.I.D.C. 1,200 94 8.oo

Private 162 15 9.45

1968/69 E.P.I.D.C. 700 48.7 7

Private 224 9.3 7.35 a/ Crushing Capacity is given as Capacity over 120 days.

SourceLL.: £The rlar-varu Advisor-y Gxroup. F'AKI'STAN - TEA - PRODUCTION,_SUPPLY AM) LMPORTS

East, PalLstan Pakistan ConsuUm:ption East Paldstan West Paki.stwi Year Area Production Exports -Imports Total Appparent ier Total Aptaarlnt r (t'000 (Xillion Lbsi...... li) (ilion Lbs.) Capita Consumw- (MiIlio r Capita Con-um- ption Lbis.) ption (Availabijlty Lbs.) .(Availability Ths.) l96;4-61, 88 63.100 5.5< 01.29 8.22 20. h9 .5h 15.SO 1965-66) 92 60o.00 6.4h) 8.10 lo.112 2.7 5>0518 15." 1966-67 95 6i4-50 1.51 3.30 7.91. 1.95? :8.39 17.-C 19067-68 .101 Xo4-50 Nil. 8.70 145h6 3 .4 51n68 16.6 1968-69 105 iO2.90 Nil. 6040 16.86 3,E8 12.44 14.4h

Source:s Pakistan Tea Bclard. Dacca. Table 5- 15

EAST PAKISTAN ?.bacco Production and Yield

Yield per Area Production Acre, lbs. (000 Acres) (I lIIion Pouids)

1964-65 103 60.0 582 1965-66 109 60.2 552 1966-67 113 8 400 743 1967-68 112 86.3 770 1968-69 113 89.6 792

Source: Food and Agriculture Section, Planning Coinmission. Table 5.16

EAST PAKISTAN - AREA AND PRODUCTION OF PUISES

Area Production Yield per Acre (000 Acres) (00n Tons) (Maunds)

196E/65 813 238 7.9 1965/66 830 234 7.6 1966/67 89h 278 8.3 1967/68 895 273 8.2 1968/69 915 290 8.5

Source: Idapted from official figures supplied by the Fonod and qAreictunltnre n Plannircg OonInirns.on, Covernment of Pakistan. Table 5.17

EAST PAKISTAN - OILSEEDS ACREAGES PRODUCTION AND YIELD

('000 acres and '000 tons)

Rape and Yield Mustard

Acres prro- Tons/Acre uction

East Pakistan 1 64/65 459 90 0.20 1965/66 474 95 0.20 1966/67 487 102 0.21 1567/68 530 120 0.23 1568/65 552 128 0.23 Sesamurn- 16f4,`65 126 22 0.17 1965/66 124 24 0.19 1966/67 124 27 0.22 1967/68 129 30 0.23 1968/69 131 31 0.24

Linseed 1564/65 53 9 0.17 1965/66 54 9 0.17 1966/67 44 9 0.20 15>7/008 37I I 1968/69 36 7 0.19

Groundnut

1964/65 23 12 0.52 1965/66 25 14 0.56 1566/67 41 24 0.59 1967/68 70 41 0.59 1568/69 83 52 0.63

Cotton Seed

1964/65 37 5 0.14 1565/66 27 6 0.16 1566/67 -136 5 0.14 1967/68 36 5 0.14 1968/69 34 5 0.15

Total Ojiseeds 1964/65 696 138 - 1965/66 714 148 _ 1966/67 732 167 - 1967/68 802 203- 1568/68 836 223 -

'Ktraction rates for oil: .ape and Mustard - 34%; Sesamurm - 40%; Linseed - 35,- Groundnut - 40%; Cotton Seed - 15%.

Source : Agriculture Wing, Ministry of Agriculture and Works, Government of Pakistan. Table 5. 18

EAST AND) WEST PAKISTL.

1 Prorjjct,jonl of Oilseedsi, O 13 andcalces - 1964-65 to 1/969-70/

-196565 5. 00 0.75 14.25 90.00 3o.60 5M.hO 22.00 8.80 '3.20 59.00 3. i5 5.85 1 55- 66 6.00 0.90 5.10 95.,oo 32.30 62.70 2L.00 0.60 '.LO 91.00 3.15 5-.0,5 1 _:?56-67 5. 0c0 0. 75 .2 5; 102.0co ,.6o3 67.32 27. C0 10, 0 :6.20 5!. 0 3.115 5. 1967-63 5.0o 0.75 !.25 102.00 4LO. 80 79.20 30.00 12.00C 8.c0 7.00 2.1t5 1960-,69 5.00 0.7,5 h.25 128.00 13.52 8h.8 31.00 1230 :8.60 7'.00 2.iL5 L,

1964.-.65 7:24.oo 108.60 6:5.40 212.00 72 .08 139.952 9.00 3.60 5.ho L.CO i.1O 2.60 19 65- 66 816. cc 1L22.40 693.60 179, 00 60.86 :115. h 7.0C0 2.80 _.2L .oO.C 1.95 19 -67 9:L2.00C 136.8o 775.20 200.00 6 8.'' '32.00 7.CO 2.°0 .20 ',.00 1.55 1.95 1967-68 1,09.9.0C) 152.85 866.155 270.00 91.80 :76.20 .00 3.60 5.Lo L.co 1.2 2.60 1"/6&G.9 1,G30.CC.! c!5 :L55.12 320°-' 223.06 :L1L.5 8.00 3.20 .80 3.00 1.05 1.S5

5 ./ xtraction rates: rctton seed - 15t; Rape and Mustard - 3 lv; Sesa.'miwn - J±0P; linseed - 35'.

Agriculture Wing, I4inistry o., Agriculture &:Works, Government of Pak'istan. Table 5.19

PRODUTIO AjT DIOPOT OF EIBLE OTIS PAXTRTAM IQ6l.V; - lQAQ/7O (000 ton~s

RD'3CTT'TTIONTIo 1. i oA rJ/,A I 1/A7 1 7 /1A 1A9AoI boAr0/7f%

1,& n-- C!eJA4%J. 4 'eJ.e ~ J JI ~ /J1 S .JJ J J7J/5

West P>.J n 12.7C10.I 151.5 . 172.6 215.9 20L.5.

£4-st rCJ.PLstan 38Ji. 46.. 546..L 62. f70

Totals ;190.8 i9.5 2i.7 272.0 268..i. 270

IMPORTS lWest Pakistan PL 460 -17 60.05 34.00 49.70 50.00 72.70 110.00

U.S.S.R. - - - 30.00 - _

Totals 60.05 34o00 49-70 80.00 72.70 110.00

East Pakistan PL 480 1/ 66.80 31.40 28.40 107.04 16.60 102.00

West Pak. 2/ 28.00 37.00 28.20 34.03 32.60 33.90

Totals 94.80 68.40 56.60 111.07 49.20

1/ nreakdmnm nnt rpvnilanh1 - hut mTnt edibjle oil.- imnorted unAder PT. 480.

2/ Miustard Oil.

Source: Price Stabilization Wing, Ministry of Industries & N.R., Government osf P:kistan.n Table 5. 20

EAST PAKISTAN

Area and Production of Coconuts

(in thousands)

Area Production (acres) (tons)

1964-65 47 63 1966-67 57 91 1967=68 60 93 1968-69 63 79

Source: Agriculture Wing, Ministry of Agriculture and Works, Government of Pakistan. Table 5.2J-

DISTRIEUTION OF FERTILIZEIRS (Thousand Tons)

i § { ~~~SUPlER- . l;ilOIU Vol A , raA a T S .P. Dtl0S§ T T 0 T t r I.§ ffPHATE I A A

-1960-61 30.38 6.50 _ 1.65 27.38 65.92

1951-62 29.T)2 5.99 1.65 1.03 29.27 66.95

462-63 41.12 3.09 2.52 1.97 z 4.53 73.23 / -1963-64 75.02 22.99 2.02 4.12 7.56 111.71

11964-65 71.06 18.97 0.34 3.93 7.32 101.59

1965-66 83-31 20M47 010 3.82 21.-33 129a03 i 1966-67 120.87 34.46 0.06 8.31 6.23 169.'3

.I C %v A! JL lr~ Anv IA A %Jr. 11 kOi Ij iAl 'V. CV- a/ .JL9W69 *. v 60.0u - J1.50) i3.5vaJ 27c , b/* .1969-70 233.40 7-.50 _ 26.10 15.400 355.00

a/ 1968-69 figures arc estimates. Total sale upto the e-nd of Apr5.l 1959 was 107,411 tons.

_i Figures fo- 1969-70 are according to the Annual Devcloprnen. Plan.

Source: L ng Depar,.ent, Go-erru,,ent of E.ast PI; .k Lis Table ).)X

FAST PAKISTAN - AREA IRRIGATED BY LOW LIFT PUMPS PRQVIDED BY THE E.P.A.I;.r,.

Years Number of Pumps Targets Area Targets in Operation Number of Irrigated Acres Pumps Acres

1?60-61 1,470 62,100 1961-62 1,560 73, 900

1962-63 2,000 133,000

1)63-64 2,500 156,800

.1?6L-65 2.300 113,100

1?65-66 3,±00 173,000

1?66-67 4.000 225,1 O

P67-68 6,6oo 317,9J0 b/ 1?68-69 10,800 515,0)0 a/ b/ 1)69-70 18,000 21,.00 72,OOX 1,000,0)0

a / As per A,nnulal D3velopmoent Plan. h /FqtEsitmate . Table 5.23

a/ 1 V A Q A !VTX 'P A Al - rTPUV _MPAM (v TMCrA T.T.n TWEAT'.T.T.R ATYn.

T .tanedon nt"e Force Account by Es 'inated

J_ I I Lsa.LJ..L... .j1L Q %,h,A.±.L_J4 01 I I IU..J.1..VL.Al. 1-l.. V Installed) (Term Key) Total on(raLion

------( umbe-r of -lube-wells)------

1967-68 n.a. n.a. 106 106 n.a.

1968-69 34 52 86 192 n.a. bj 1969-70 65 L43 505 700- -3S

14th Plan Prograxn

1970-71 500 l,COO 15,000 2,200 ]-^(,.)O

1971-72 750 2,'-00 3,250 5,1.50 ,(no

1972-73 1,500 4,COO 5,500 10,950 8,(0

1973-74 1,500 5,coo 6,500 17,h50

1974-75 750 2,500 3,250 20,700 1 .1(.)0

a/ In addition, WAPD1. has installed abcut 360 tubewells .nd the Comilla Co-operative about. 160, bringing the total to about 1.200 as of mid April, 1970. b/ Target 1,000 of which 700 completed as of mid April, 1970.

Souice: Planning DeDF.rtment Table 5.2h

lAflM "A"Y,n-Al ty r nrr,A nyy ff AM (Acres)

Project Commanded Irrigated Area, net Area 1969--70 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70

EPWAPDA

Ganges-Kobadak Kushtia Unit - Phase 1 120,000 47,000 58,0o 90g,000

Northern Tubewells 80,000 52,000 58,OOO 62,000

Northern lift pumps 58,000 17,000 11,000 10,000 Dacca-Narayanganj-Demra 15,000 3,000 8,000 9,000

Teesta Barrage Project 3,000 6,ooo

Total 273,000 119,000 138,000 177,000

ADC

Low lift pumps 900,000 318,0o0 515,000 720,000

eweJls 35.000 n.a. n.ao 22,000

Tbtal 9352000 n.a. n.ao 744.,000

COMTLT.A OOPERATIVES 8,000 n.a. n-aO 8o000

Grand Total 1,216,000 n.a. n.ae 929,000

n.a. Not available.

Source: Planning Department and Department of Agriculture. Table 5.25

EAST PAKISTAN - CURRENT USE OF PESTICIDES

AŽ.D THE PROJECTIOM FOR THE FOURTH FIVE YEAR PLAN

(Tons)

3rd Plan --Two last Years

1968-6'? 6;200

1969-70/ 10;900

bith Pla;n

197n-71 13 900

1971-72 18,100

1972-73 21,600

17 -7- 7), q~)n

a9,-1 ± . 5,.,.L2a±

nIPretll ynar

Note The procurement - sho th e tjext are- SWie- what higher than the above figures and allow For building up some, stocks to assure 4iMely a vaail l Or_ pe9t control materials.

Source: Planning Department. Table 5.26

EAST PAKISTAN tC/AI/1A/V/ ?2;72/&K?//762 /OV0f MA I6'l FH4/?/fl AklS Y' 9/Zz

10? ___ _ T- _-- _ I __ __s

l~~ I-_,s > _ _ _

Lz\' o' __ Cumulative Percentage of Farms under 69__ _ _-7: 2 - ___ q_ _ p Indicated Sizes and Their Area Number of

*>l b -_ _ _ .__ J__ _ _. -- 5ize f arms Farm Area

_____ 4° -----< - ______--P( __ Under 0.5 acras 13 1

- ~~Of1.0 "24 3 R 30 __ ___5._ j 77 L2

,20 ______,__ . _L2.51 2 " 96 so ______j ______--- aI ;25.0 99 94

° o/z I ,2/2 5 7,8 - r ?, '.

Source: 1.960 Paki-stan Census of Agriculture, A Sumnary of Easv Pakistan Data.X Agricultural Census Organization Ministry of Foocd and A.griculture government of Pakistan (undated, printed probably in 1962). Table 5.29

SOURCE OF RURAL CREDIT

TN EAST PAKISTAN (1966)

Non-I_n.-titA +ti mvn

Friends & Relatives 52-05

Landlords, Traders, Moneylenders 34108%

86AA

Institu±tional

Co-operatives 7.73%

Agricultural Development Bank 5. 36%

Taccavi Loans 0.77%

13.6oO

Total 100 % Table )-30

EAST PAKIST.A - NST. AGRICULTURAL CPREIT

ATZNJ 4 VA Ui OP LENDING f&z II 'A or_lt-;i o ,l T )p j

,44,ency>7~e - 1960-61 L961-.62 1962-63 :L63-64 1i564-6i5 196- 66 '966-67 :967-680, 1968-69 '';

Taccavi 13.,4.8 214-W 29,00 38.45 30.22 17.79 J9$0;4 15.0 28 2-LO ; oG0

A.D.B. Po 38 19 40.54 37.67 38.314 36343 41055 I6505u 75179675 7 6

Co-operativs 143,,08 45e7? 37.82 35-35 5 157 9e3t 23 c-lB 7 0,13 791.05 12>

Source; Planrnizg Department, using cdava oI;

a) -spa r,tnsra of Agricu2.t'le3 Governxraent o' Zast* Pakistan.

kb ) ierect,orate ,of (co-,)oera v-rC3 ,pDacca.,

Co) 'rile Ajkicu1turaJ Deve! opir,ant Ban'k f£ PaLi3stwn, IaCca Table 5.31

EAST PAKISTAN - DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE BY SECTORS UNDER THE THI}D FIVE-YEAR PLAN 1965/66-1969/70

/'otal 3rd PlEn 196!___CD 1967/6,5 1968/69 10969/70 Allocation SectoDr rllLulorl Milio llion Million Million Million Rs % Rs % Rs- Rs - Rs AGRICULTURE

Agriculture & Food 136.70 8.9 239.70 120. 307. 6 12.9 346.40 12.0 41CI.70 1'i.6 1,441.6 L12.0 Wvater 215.25 13.9 -2 03 0. 1l.1 283.96 1().6 1 2.12.5 Sub-total 351.95 72. 3 532.73 2 0.7 628.25 26.3 6T66.30 23.1 69q!eo6-20.2 2, 873.'94 25.2

Works Progran - Rural 100.58 6.5 123.22 6.7 150.91 6.3 196.10 6.8 144.14 5.4 714.9 Agriculture Total (Broad Definition) 452.53 29.3 656.oo 33.4 779.16 32.6 862'.40 29.9 838.80 3:L.8 3,588.89 31.5 NON-AGRICULTURAL SECTORS

P?ower 126.96 - 273,44 - 377.14 - 537.00 - 473.38 '- 1,'784.92 - Industries 349.23 - 305.61 - 250.31 - 463.40 - 40-.66 1,770.71 - Transport & Comuni- cations 283.09 - 308.30 - 443.41 - 447t.30 - 436.73 1,918.83 - Physical Planning and Housing 158.56 - 219.10 - 253.49 - 195'.80 - 229.00 - 1,056.72 - .ducation & Training 92.23 - 159.70 - 194.11 - 177'.20 - 17:L.01 - '794.85 _ Health 75.40 - 75.36 - 92.35 - 112.40 - 104.10 460.11 - Social ½elfare 3.13 - 3.21 - 4.01 - 7.10 - 8.00 25.50 Manpower & Employment 2.24 - 4.41 - 3.98 - 6.00 - l.5518 - Non-Agriculture 6 4 Total j1,091.39 _7O.7 1,49.13 65.6 1,6 16.30 7. J,94.20 71.1 ,83:L.20 68.2 7,834.22 68.5

Grand Total 11,j42.92 100.0 2,0C5.12 100.0 2346 100.0 4h8EL.60 100.0 2,6?t), 00 100.0 11, 31 100.0

Note: 1. The available data do not give separately the combined water and power development expenditures of the Central and Prc-li neial Gnr m,n±t To q nqihT an arp,HrnmAt.i on for ea- f'nris't.i or. t-.he Ientral Grovernment.' s nontri hiit nn was divided equally between the Provincial Government's allocations l'or water andcl po,wer. 2. Includes the debt service; therefore the actual developm-nt expendituires durinz tLhe '3rd Plan were less than the above indicated, Source: Strategies and Programme for the Fourth F'ive Year Plan, 1970-.1975, from East Pakistan Planning Department, 5overnment of East Paldstan (Octobrr 19651).

lL- -I v '. T-

EAST PAKISTAN - ACRTIC'ULTURE (NOT IINCLUDN MATJOR WATi;'R CO NTR 'IOiYS)

Estimntnrd Thivd Five-Year Plan Exnenditures and Proposed Allocation under the Fourth Five-Year Plan

(Million Rs)

Third Plan Fourth Plan__ Cost of Likely Carry over New Total pro- Nam,e of Sub=Sector the Allo- utili- frmn program noseri alTo- Per- scheme cation zation third plan allocation cation cent

1. Agric. Dev. Corpn. project areas, etc. 39.54 51.80 13.59 25.95 107.15 133.10 1.9

2. Fertilizers 497.54 484.20 367.58 - 881.10 881.,0 12.7

3. Plant protection D.A. 260.58 258.29 199.10 - 944.22 944.22 13.7

4. Seed multiDlication and distribution 46.76 34.92 29.75 17.01 65.69 82.70 1.2

5. Mechanization 433.79 322.22 198.32 235.47' 1,550.45 1,785.92 25.4

6. Agric. 6conomics 2.94 2.94 1.58 1.36 18.00 19.36 0,3 and statistics

7. Agric. marketing 13.20 13.20 5.61 7.59 24.41 32.00 0.5

8. Agric. extension 9.81 9.69 6.08 3.73 120.04 123.77 1.8

9. Agric. research 56.38 31.24 17.29 39.11 76.71 115.82 1.7

10. Agric. education & training 1.81 3.99 1.32 0.49 38.93 39.42 o.6

11. Soil conservation 2.12 2.12 1.95 0.18 2.34 2.'i2 (0.0)

12. Animal husbandry 52.40 54.88 23.25 28.14 96.86 125.00 1.8

13. Forestry 122.56 119.52 56.51 66.49 86.51 153.00 2.2

14. Fisheries 125.03 92,45 81,8i 51.93 78.07 i30.() 1.9

15. (a) Cooperatives '74. 63- 4.7L 40,39 21.63-An 274.00 295.f(;3 4.3' (b) Cooperative farning on Comilla basis 36.54 36.54 0.5

16. Governrment Foodgrain Storage n.a. 202.70 165.14 37.56 20.00 57.3 0 Total 1,739.09 1,724.70 1,209.27 723.03 4,229.43 4,920.00 17. Soil survey 5.39 5.39 4.62 0.77 1.46 2.23_. (0.0) 18. Rural development and works proy,ram n.a. n,a, 720.00 n.a. 2,000 2,000.00 29.0

Grarsi total 1,7C 44. 1 c y2 . 2, ,3ovG) 2 9- .77.3.05 , 6 -23. ':,

P.T.O. - 2 -

Subsidy to promote fertilizer application by lowering the respective prizes to farme-rs and necessary working capital.

It will be financed by Central Government. t** Source of financing has not yet decided.

Sources: Planning Department of East Pakistan; various data on actual and projected Third and Fourth Pian Expenditures. i I, iAi. - iN,'~A[O.- L 1.1 J i ,V t, -L .-t:Ui±t .-.iL.JI . . j ^._ L'.... i .T'.W 1 , ... I9i~~9..L4L1ITG ATiC i20 r' Ti.K;` .L .1... !

Surv",JtArea B3o- 'v;I.),,; C'c.-

!L j ,-b±Y Dit 'D__.. i . c r

'i"-7l.1:ur:. .c. SU.¾9 iv1sLoH1 36() 19"94

I'-v-pir, andl N:Viwhl.rra ri sulixlivisions 630 4-j '12C Kur i .r; i.. and1 Gatbandha sulxdivisionsb/ 475 91 L Bomrra D)I! sticta! 61', It6'3 )Jcr6(

Ra istrict . 1shh,377 628 5)7f, i:'alma Ois tri Pt 618 19 19

1') rPrl ) ,r,, i on

JIaJ.3].u; suidvisirore c 291 217 63 v-h Sadar North ant) Noetralkona subdivisionsc)" 950 525 292

Tsrrr,nsi n h Sardar Southi and Kishoregan,j subdiviasions 61 Dacca Di strict 1,018 146 113 Faridpur Sacrar and Goa:lundo subdivisions 347 22 22

M'JI). .- i LU- a.-nd -opaIJ'..LnJJ,JG -"UAv Vi -s-a/ 2.2 7 I I >,us r: I - L,U L f J L Uj.%L.CjJ D rurl .)UV J. ,J (r

Io)shtia Sadar andc i'ienerpur su5lvi.LV±UIIonsLQ' 3°(U Chup,:1all c- subdi\'isiona/ 141 85 89 docssorer . jJ)?tStr2CtltJ J i r, rJ, . t., I ou: '*-*o •hul-na Di-st.rict (except: southern par' of B&rgerhat)a/ 27, 10. 103 i.V.o iras Di)Dst'rict (and southcrn part of BaEc rha'.) 94a 342 3'

D-i tt a.l'n'-:l Dix s-.V9o.>

S,y,rlhct 'aoar and t.au.vi Liazar sulivisions 74/. 333 27j Surina,i,igj and Habiganj su-lIivisionsi/ 926 167 -34 B3r.-rr;: ... ;>lvarSc sulyivisior^' 32-U 1 11 Co:iilmlj Sadnxr North an- South subdivis.ions-, 53,' 22.1. 190 Noakh,a.li District an( Chandpar subdivisioru/ 513 107 1 C4Y Chi1.irc0ng D:)i.s1,ri. c,a2/ * 14.2; 581 426 Chi Lta on- Ijli. 1.1 Tra c ts2

G__ROD TOTAI _____ -.4. 6,13U 5.213

nl/ I-Jot, sure-veyd h/ ,'x.Ju0.r I-Rahuymari th!nta C ! Irl(:J.vfCM.; tIVr1Sifel,.sjn.hn Kot.,ali thana ci / 1 i (Jlf

'.toi' '-: SoiL. surzvcy P'ro()je.ct of 1-akiistnin by. thie UNDP ald thl w Gcv:l.ntcn, ofo iG-i s-i, TIable 1, fable

1-GABT PAKISTAN - CItOP PRODUCTION lARGETS ,1 i- Til: INTLAT-rP vii: FMIF?TH FiV1b Yf:AIR PLAN

Base Level Projected Projected Targets Percentage Crop 1969-70 for Addditional Increase ?er

Ri^e ('000 tons) 11,53 16,530 IL 87'43 7

Wheat " " 75 200 125 167 22.0

Mea i e I h4 33 Cz

Qorg"L,. and MeIt-I QL,J Joar, etc.) ('000 tons) 15 16 1 7 1.5

Total food-rains 11,636 16,750 5,114 44 7.5

Gram ('000 tons) 50 55 5 10 2.0

Pulses " 240 300 60 25 4.5

Sugarcane " " 8,000 11,000 3,000 37 6.5

Potato g900 o 14,000 500 55 9.5

Oilseeds to . 255 340 115 51 8.7

Other vegetables It i 1,720 2,200 490 29 5.3

Jute ('000 bales) 7,000 9,000 2,000 29 5.3

Cotton " " 15 15 - _ _

Tobacco (Million lbs) 85 114 29 34 5.3

Tea itU, 70 90 20 29 5.3

Source: Strategies and Program for the Fourth Five Year Plan,, 1970-1975,, East Pakistan (Third Draft, Planning Department of East Pakistan, October 1969). Table 5.35

EAST PAKISTAN -- RICE PRODUCTIONi PROJECTION niij{'. BY

TH7- 1)R,PAR'1hENT OF PLANNI.NG

: 16-197)h- 796970 715 * -~ NEW VARIET'IS :1W . - EW VARIETR'; Ol d ;Without ith : Old Without With varie-: Irriga- irriga- :Total :varie- irriga- irriga-:: Total ti p CZ ti on t:nn tA-.q ti on tion

APP TTT ITT.T.TOtJ MP Zq

1. AIS -( - - 50 552=0 1 Q &.

2. B. ANAN 5,5 _ _ 5.5 5.5 - - _

3. T- ,APLk 9,0 _ _ 9.0f 5.5 2.0 2.0 9.5

4= BCRO - 0.5 2.0 2.5 - 1.0 8 5

24.0 24.5 18.0 4.0 4.o 26.0

PER ACRE

YIELD IN vAUNDS OF RICE

1. AUS 10.5 - 10.5 10.9 1644. 38.2 15.4

2. BEs AMAN 9.5 - - 9.5 9.5 - - 9.5

3. T. AMUAN i14.f - - 14.8 15.3 20.4 38.2 21.2

4. BORO 16.0 - 40.8 22.2 16.5 - 40.8 26.2

12.'3Li -17 1

PRODUCTION IN MILLION TONS OF RICE

1. AIJS 3.08 - _ 3.08 2.20 1.20 1.40 4.80

2. B. ANIAN 1.92 - _ 1.92 1.92 - - 1.92

3. T. AMA,' 4.90 - - 4.90 3.10 1.50 2.80 7.40

!; OiO0,89 - 0.75 1.64 0.91 1.50 2041

10.79 - O.75 hI.r,J, 8.13 9,70 5.70 16.53

Source: Strategies and Programrmne for the Fourth Five Year Plan, 1970-75 for East Pkistan., Plnnning Department, rovenrai.ent of has Pnkist.an (October, 1969). TABLE 5.36

EAST PAKISTAN

Crqj:4LLse Annual1 Targets for Plant Protection Services Durg he t1 PlanPerio1(7_T 0-7 (Area in thousands of Acres

Pulses Year Rice Jute Sugar- Potato oi:L Vege- Fruit Wheat Rodent Weed Total e a kks cane seeds tables trees control control

A 5,000 800 25)0 10( 350 300 100 025 100 075 7,100 1970-71 B 11,700 2.L.00 750 300 358 300 100 025 100 075 16,1.00 C 2,020 3,333 5,828 4,167 1,936 - - 1,289 - - -

A 5,800 900 275 125 375 300 125 050 125 100 8,175 1971-72 B 14,500 2,700 825 375 375 3003 125 050 125 100 19,W.75 C 2,314 3,750 6,166 1,90g 1,988 - - 2,294 - - -

A 6,600 1,C)00 300 125 375 325 125 050 125 100 9,125 1972-73 B 17,200 3,C)00 9)00 375 375 300 125 050 125 100 22,575 C 2,601 4,].66 6,466 !x,63( 1,909 - - 2,066 - - _

A 7,500 1.1]00 3 5 150 400 350 150 075 150 125 10,325 1973-74 B 20,100 3,300 975 450 400 350 150 075 150 125 26,075 C 2,920 4,583 674 5,263 1,959 _ - 2,809 - - -

A 8,500 1,200 350 150 400 375 150 100 150 125 11,500 1974-75 B 23,000 3,600 1,050 450 L400 375 150 100 150 125 29,h00 C 3,269 5,000 7,0(0 5,000 1,887 - - 3,425 - - _

A = Actual Acres B = Spray Acres C = Percentages of the Cropped Area

Source: Department of Agricult;ure J,>Xh~~~~~~~~~~ C,v,E,)' j( 5tt ...... ;Z;;

JV' L * COI: tiev I-tL v- <6:;.t:,:- -5i

2 ?11 XSffi v <) Slz ' ('i,1.' ^','()' 'lZ ls) U. ,; . . 9.'.!! £ 1': , ;.¢. ! ! i,Hi -i tt.<~~~~~~~c

. ._ _.....____...... _...... _.._...._...... ___...... L

._ L ;i ,):lt i( , ' ! !; :l ', . (,C i,j L;l ifir ii~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t iL,-,

.~~~~~~~~~~~~~A j,s. ;&Jc~1:ii. *t)tt!

To~~~~~~~~~-lTOr- 6| ; ;\t

5ij i_ a t ,;t '0Fi 2 jSit O O).s .L ,

,;0a;I l:' (..2 -. , :2lG i o.) '

QQT)CI{ OLc.- ? crL.+-K0} }]-{ {ZC':1,t4! t,

: , ....: ......

CL C-1 V 11.11,Ec '-i L;,,:;

dtoer s.rg SHC[IIS=ad do -asn asaloaoEd - ,ISIWd I SE

L~'5., aTqeJ, Table 5.3'S

EAST PAKISTAN - Requirements of IoiporLs and E:ports T:in mill1i'777,77

Comodities 1]969-70 :L970-71 1971-72 '1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 TIhportABXxport Import/Export ImportAKxport Import/Export Import/Export Imp,ort/Expc'rt

1. Coal *525 - .350 - .380 - .4200 - .450 - .50Q -

2. Cement .665 - .860 - 1.150 - 1.,L80 - 1.630 - 1.730 -

3. Fertilizer .260 - .1L82 - .110 - .i85 - .277 - .585 -

4. Foodgrains 1.718 - 2.200 - 2.200 - 2.200 - 2.200 - 2.200 -

5. General Cargo .900 .500 .,LOC .50 1.300 .715 1.690 .930 1.860 1.C23 2.CL6 1.125

6. Jute - .6o0 - .600 - .600 - .600 - .600 .600

7. Jute Products - .3(0 - .3:25 - .355 - .382 - .416 -453

Total 4.068 1.4()0 4L592 1.475 5.140 1.670 5.955 1.912 6.417 2.C39 7.C61 2.178

Total of Imports and Exports: 5.1468 6.067 6.810 7.867 8.456 9.239 Ta;ple 5 39

EAST PAKIST AN

Traffic Handled by East Pakistan Railways

CcnmodiLt i e 1965-66 :1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 Estimated

1. Coal .271 .572 .500 .200 .250 .280 .300 .350

2. Cement .236 .313 .400 .*400 .k475 .5 80 .625 .700

Feet ilizer - - - .280 .350 .375 .4OO .)425

F.Foodgra_is .960 .937 1.100 .900 .S00 .500 .900 #I900

5. E 0 1 .2,L4 .3:24 .400 .700 .775 .850 .975 1.100

6. Jute & Jute iProdlucts .756 .482 .400 .425 .450 .475 .500 .525

7. Others (iLncludinv generaL cargo) 2.970 2.109 2.500 2.750 3.025 3.328 3.631 4.000

Total 5.437 L.737 5.300 5.655 6.225 6.7'88 7.331 8. 000

Zon miles (in million) 854 725 795 848 934 1.C)18 1.L00 1.200

7rable 6. i ?ar 1/7 EAST FKKISY±N AGEORTC3IC7 AND WATESIDEVELOPMEN1 EAST PAKISTANf -- COST RSTTMkES~CF hATENPROJECTS

(Mll-lllsn of T0 Dollars)

Type of 1970 - 71 1971 - 72 P R 0 J2 E C T S 5soat-aet 1972 - 731 1 )72 - 73 Prograt_ Total_ Renarks Start Complated alFonlgP Tllt U=Loca psTV7-9 T=7f Local For-eign. Total Lo-al F-ig!N Total local r___ .

RjIANPAPROJTCECTS 1. Gar4ps-Eo..aAa, I~tuata Utilt 05 2 . . . . Fart (a) Capital ln'. 1/7/70 30/6/72 C1.5 "5 .0052.5 3.0 . 6 C Part in) CepitaL In'. 1/7/73 30/6/75 ------19.0 7.0 26.0 Mgt. Last. 19.0 7.0 26.0 1/1/71 30/6/75 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1L 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1. 0. 2.0 0'.6 2!.6 3.4 0.8 2.6 3.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 19.6 7.2 76.6 21.5 12.5 31.0 2. COa..t±-I Eaba,k-tatt Piano C - rnzp A Capital Inv. 1/7/70 1/6/72 29.0 1.3 30.0 9.0 1.0 10.0 ------36.I0 2.0 40.u ti-np A (waterMgt.) Proj.Planing L/1/71 30/6/74 0l.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 U.3 1.1/ 0.6 1.4 Orsu.p A Proj. Planning 1/7/70 30/6/72 0.3 7.1I 0. 3 2.2 0.8 3.0 ------2.64 0.9 3.3 Gm,op 8 - Stage 1 Capitta1 Tnv. 1/9/72 30/6/75 - . - - - - 3.6 1.2 5.0 10.0 3.3 13.3 13.n Grcu p a--Stage 2 CapitalIn-. 6. 5 11.3 1/7/75 31/12/76 . - - - - 13.6 6.6 15.6 13.s 6.6 11.4 PhaseIT Proj.Planning L/1/71 30/6/74 0.1I 0.1I ).2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 StbageI Capttal 0.9 0.6 1.5 Inv. 1/9/72 30/6/75 -LO - - - . 6.0 6.0 lo.0 6.0 22.0 20.0 10.0c StaLge 2 Capitallot. 33.0 1/9/75 30/'6/76b - - - 20.0 10.0( 30.0 20.0 12.0 3tU.0U PhaseaaI &1 CIveral Mgt. Aset,. Part 1 L/7/71 30/6/74 - .1 0.1 0.2 1.0C 0.5 1.5 1.41 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.3 3.a Port 2 1/7/76 31/12/77 ------2.6 1.3 3.9 2.0 1.3 Jo? 29.5 1.3 30.86 :1.i9 2.2 16.1 9.61 6.0 15.6 66.2 26.1 90.-3 115.0c 35.6 1510.6 3. Chn±dpurt/ CapitalTnt. IDA Cr-dit 1/7/70 30/6/73 8.0 2.6 1-0.6 7.5 2.0 9.5 0).8 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.1I 1.6L 17.5c 5.1. 22.7 1. Santasouthvesi CapitalIns. 11/l/71 30u/6/76 3.0 7.0 6.0 8.5 2.5 11.0 9.5 6.5 14.0 246.0 7.0 31.0 FinalEnig. 65.0c 15.0 60.0 Il/0 3127 . C. i4 . (8 i4 - Pro~~~~~~?j.prep.)Vj ID Codt 1//0 3/27 . 09 16 ------. . . 3.6 1.8 5.6 6.5 2.5 11.2 9.5 6.5 14.0 26.0 7.0 31.0 45.6 15.b 61.1 5. Eartnfali CapitalIs.- 1/1/72 1/1/75 - . - 0.7 0.3 1.0C 7.5 2.5 10.0 6.8 3.2 10.0 15.u 6.0 21.0 Fi-aIEng. ) 1/12/70 1/12/71 c.5 1.1; i.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 - - - 1.5 2.1 7.9 Proj. hrepjlI/ IN crttPt 1/7/70 1/5/71 Z------0.5 1.3) 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.5 8.0 2.9 10.9 6.8 3.2 10.0 16.5 6.6 26.9 .Ohluri Pepita1In'. TnIaudd 1/1/73 1/1/76 - _ .3 0.3 1.0 7.5 3.5 11.0 6.2 3.s 12.0 Final &ng. )l/ in :L//71 1/12/72 - . ------Proj. Prep.)- gs,ofalt 1./2/71 1/6/72 ------Z-

0.7 0.3 1.0 7.5 3.5 10.0 8.2 3.0 12.1L 7.Toeoa2 Thokorg- anPtnsion Capitol. Inv. 1/7/71 1/6/76h 0.7 1.9 2.6 1.2 3.8 5.0 Tentalia. Panda agarh 1.2 3.8 5.0 3.1 9.5 12.6 Capital Ine. 1L/7/71 1/6/75 - .3 1.1 1.i. 2.0 6.0C 8.0 3.0 3.0 12.0 ltangpLir 5.3 16.1 21.6 CapitolIs. 1.v /7/71 1/6/764 0.2 0.6 o.6 1.5 6.5 6.0 Na th lVoetiengh 1.5 6.5 6.0 3.2 9.6 12.6 1L7/72 1/6/75 - - - 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 2.5 7.5 10.0 Final 5mg. & ll Proj. Flaming Tabealla 1 1/7/70 30/6/72 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 - - -7 - - 0.7 1.3 2.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 6.1 5.6 5.2 15.8 21.0 7.7 23.3 31.0 14.8 63.6 58.6 8. Patina Plase C Capital Tnt. 1/9/72 1/7/76 - . - - - - 6.5 1.5 6.0 33.0 01.0 4b.0 37. 5 12.5 50.0 FInal Er~g. 1/1/71 30/6/7 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 - - - - - 1.0 3.0 6.0 Pro3. Prat. Cos~pleted In mid-1970

0.5 i.5 2.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 6.5 1.5 6.0 33.0 11.0 44.0 38.5 15.5 5.1,- 9. Sel1±-hI Capita1lnIs. 1/9/72 30/6/75 ------3.0 1.0 6.0 15.0 5.0 20.0 18.0L 6.0 26.0 Final Erg. 1/) Iio Lodt,------Proj. Prop.Y) PaIne - - -

3.0 1.0 4.0 15.0 5.0 20.0 18.0 6.0 26.0 10. LittleFrl F-heer C Capitol lI-e 1/12/73 3C/6/76 - -2 - - 2 22.5 7.5 30 0, FinalEog. .22.5 7.5 30.02/ 1,7/32 31/3.2/73 - - 07 0.5 0 8- 0 6 0.5 09-' 0.3 0.5 0& 1.0 1.5 2.5- P.-J. PooP. 1/1/72 21/12/70 - 0.4 (36 0 z'l :.h 0.5 0 3j/ - - 08 10 1.8 0.37 LUo 1.7 04 1.0C 1.8 22.5 0.0 30.0 24.3 10.0 3.±.3 EAST PAKISTAN3-- COSTESTIMATE 0F WATERPROJECTS

(Millions of US Dollars)

Type of 1970 - 71 1971 71972 - 73 1972 - 73 Pro9.grm Total F R C0J E C T S lnvestrent Her,rks StaLrt Completet Local Foreign Total_ Local Forin Total 1local Foreigom 5ToaloclFo7e-tl oal Forign Tot i_

11. Upper .Kozhlyare Capital Inv., 1/1/72 1/1'/75 - . 0.5 2.0 3.0 1.0 1.0( 5. 5 2.0 7.5 10.0 3.5 17.5 .nsa Fog. ) 1/7/71 30/b/77 . : 0.3 0.5 0.1. 0.6 1.0 .. - - o.6 0,9q 1.5 Proj. Frep.P.:- :..... -

1.7 0.8 2.5 3.4 1.6 9.0 5.5 2.0 7.5 10.6 4.4 15.1

12. Khowai Capitol Inv,. 1/1/72 1/1/75 -- 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.4. 0.6 2 .0 58 2.2 8.0 7.? 3.1 11.1 Final ERg . InloledT in 1/7/71 30/6/72 - -. ------.. - - - -- Po. pre.I/) Upe osyr .------. - - - - Z- - 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.1 0). 2.0 56 2.2 8.0 7. 9 3.1 11.1U

13. DJaeca North Capital Inv. 1/7/73 1/7/77 ------30.0 1oo 10.04. 30.0 10.0 10.1C Final E2g. 1/7/72 31/12/73 - -. - - - - 0.3 0.5; 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.9~ 1.6 2.5 Proj . Prep. 1/1/71 30/6/72 - -. - 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.b - 0.5 1. 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 o).6 1.0 1.6 30.6 111.1 41. 7 31.1 12.6 114.C l1b. Rorioa1 Phase I 1090cot Prepartcon 1/1/71 30/6/73 0.3 0).7 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 .. - .3 2. 7 4.0C Final Engi re!e-,tg For -ll stages 1/71/2 30/6/731 0.3 .7 1.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 0).5 1. 5 2.0 *- -- 1.3 3£7 5.0C Stage (a) Capital Tcv. 1/1/71 30/6/71b 1.5 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.7- 3.0 0. 0.3 1.0 4.5 1.5 6.C Stage (o) Capital Toy 1/1/73 30/6/78 . - - - 37 0.3 1.0 10.0 3.0C 13.0 10.7 3.3 14.0O Stagec Capital In,. 1/1/71 30/6/77 - -. - -- - 30 1.0 i6.0 12.0 4.0 16.01 0.6 i. 4 2.0 2.5 3.0 5.5 4.0 3.5 7.5 22. 7 7.3 30.0 29.8 15.2 45.0 25. Coo I Io-Noakhali Phase C Capital in,,. 1/1/7/3 30/6/77 - . ------2/ 37.5 12.5 50.0 37.5 12.5 50.0 Final Eng. 1/7/72 31/12/73 - -. - 0.5 1.0 1.52/ 0.7 1. 2 U.01 05 10 15 . . Proj. Prep. 1~~~~~~~~~~~~/1/7230/6/73 - . - 0.3 0.7 1.0LZI 0.3 0.' t.?. 03 0.7 1.0 0.9 2.1 3.u 0.8 1.6 2.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 318.3 24.2 52.5 40.1 17.9 50.0 lo. Sang. Capital Imv. 1/1/74 1/7/77 - -. - - - -. - - - 37.5 12.5 50.0 37.5 12.5 50.0 Pica1 'Log. )1/7/72 31/12/73 - -. - 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.4 .1.0C 1.4 1.0 3.0 4.0O Proj. -Pre.!/) - _ _ 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 37.9 1.3.5 51.4 3b.5 15.5 54.11

17. Tuowe.llo II Capital Tn,,. 1/1/74 1/1/79 .- - - - 1.0 2.0 3.0 9.5 29.5 39.0 10.5 31.5 12.0C Final Eng. 1/1/72 30/6/73 - .. - 0.1 0.7 0.3 - 0.2 0.2 - - 0.1 0.4 0.5~ Proj. Prep. 1/12/70 30/6/72 0.2 0).3 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 - - - - 0.6 0.9 1.5: 0.2 (J.3 0.5 0.5 0).8 1.3 1.0 2.2 3.2 2.5 29.5 39.0 11.2 32.6 44.0C 1b, 0angyo-KoI)adak, Jes.ore Unit (Phase II) Fooj. PreP. 1/6/73 3u/6/74 - .. - - - - .5 _1.5 2.0 0.-5 1.I-5 2.01 Total EFWAFDAFrejeoto 44.1 1-3. 1 57.2 39.3 25.3 64.6 53.9 45.4L 99.3 352.7 175.7 528.4 490.0 259.5 749.51 Flood Coot,ol Inveoll gatlto 1. G0a- s darrage and Soothe st Re.am 1/1/72 31/12/74 - . - 0.5 1.5 2.0C 0.5 1.5; 2.0 3.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 4.0 5.5 2. Model df Soulhwot llsgics 1/7/71 30/6/73 - .. . 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.7 3.0 - - o.6 1.4 2.0C 3. Flood Models 1/7/71 30/6/74 - .- - - - 0.5 1.0 3.5 0.3 0.7 2.0 0.8 1.7 2.5~ 4. 8aoapraans-ghaCois,plex 1/1/72 30/6/76 - - .4 20 o60-. 1. . .3 07 10 1.L. .

Total Flood Control Invesotigations 1.4 3.6 5.0 1.9 6.6 6.5 1.1 2.4 3.5 1.4 10.6 15.0C AkWFrjeclts 1. low4-lift Nope C 1/1/72 30/6/73 3.0 L.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 ------7.0 7.0 1. 2. low-lift FNape T117,067 - - - - 6. . . 40 3.0 170 20.0 5.0 25.0 3. Tooells I 1/12/70 31/12/73 3.5 5;.6 9.1 6.5 8.9 15.4 6.5 4.p 11.4 $.3 3.4 b.7 21.8 22.0 44.6 L.. Toosoall II 1/12/72 31/12/76 - . - - - - 6.3 6.3 12.6 35. 7 35.7 71.4 42.0 42.0 84.0) Total ADCFrejeoce 6.5 .6 11 105 12.9' 22.4 16.8 13.2 320 5S.0 121 97.1 90.8 76.8 167.6

G0R010mTOTL 50.6 22. 7 73.3 51.2 40.od 92.0 74.6 63.2 137.8 40i.8 220. 2 629.0 585.2 346.9 932.1.

I/ Roeioton of existing feaeiblllityetudy.

2/ San careutant as tha1t engaged on ths Kamnatuli ad Meloi projects.

3/ Rsessnatsosnce pa-s of thes stodles are in1cludedin the Coeprlenelios Stody; see Chapl,erVIII.

4/ 1970-71figuoeo in.1l de expencliture in 1769-70. TabLe 6.2 EAST PAKISTAN AGESCULTURE AND WATER DEV!ELOPMENT

AREAS rRRIQATED-1 MD PROTECTED FROM FlLOODING- (thousands or acres)

1975 - 76 1980 - B1 1985 _ 86 lI;Ulti,Aate ricod ~~~Flod F lood~ Po R e a r k Protection Irrigation Proteci rn Irrigation Prcotection IrrigatiUo Protection Irrigation __-

Low-lift Pup/ 1,000 - 500 - 500 - 500 Peak 1,100 iA 1976-77

Tunewells (Non-intenzve)L - 350 _ 600 - 300 - 300 Peak 800 in 197b-79

Tubewells (Intensive)!/ 200 - 1,OOCI - 2,200 _ 2,200

MultU-purpose Projecto / New PrjoJ: ta Dacca Soutlhwest 260 130 390 260 390 300 390 tOO Karnafuli 100 20 150 70 150 100 150 100O Muhuri 5;0 10 100 50 100 60 100 60 Pabna I 220 40 220 160 220 160 220 160 PaDna II - - 230 B0 230 120 230 160 aelk.uhb i 100 30 100 70 100 70 (10 70 Upper Kushiyara tlO 70 80 40 o0 50 80 50 Khowai tlO 20 60 40 bO 50 110 50 Sangu 20 10 120 t 0 120 80 120 80 Dacca Norw' - 160 100 160 110 160 110 BarisaL I - 50 300 160 300 200 3(0 200 Barisal III - - 150 100 150 0 340 900 600 Little FP&i I _- 14 8C 110 90 14,0 90 Little Fenit II - - 120 40 120 70 120 70 Cosilla-NoakhbaU I - - 220 1601 220 160 220 160 Coinlla-Noakhal _ 300 100 670 340 670 45C

Subtotal, New Proje :te 910 330 2,b60 1,590 3,230 2,300 3,980 3,710

Existing Projects

Coastal Enrk,ahnts 1,5C0 350 1,800 1,100 ,hO00 1,600 3,0G0 2,';00 OK-Kushtie- 350 130 350 220 350 220 350 220 Chendpur l40 60 140 90 140 90 1140 90

Subtotal, Existing Projects 1,950 540 2,290 1,141( ,890 1,910 3,490 2,810

Total. Multi-p=upoae Projects 2,9C0 870 5.150 3,000 C,6120 4,210 7,470 6,520

GR1ND TOTAL 2,9C0 2,420 5,150 5,100 6,120 7,210 7,470 9,'i20

1/ Net area co-nded. 5/ Not including existing (1969-70) area of 70,000 acres.

2/ Oross area protected. 6/ Not including exiastng Eacca-Dewra project (15,000 acr roe, 10,000 acres net) nor arelhcap.tra Right Encankosont floc,d protection project (580,,000 acres gross,). 3/ Not inclucding existing (1969-70) area of 700,0100 acres. 7/ Includes 40,000 acres now partially irrigated. 4/ Not inclding existing i1969-70) area of 40,00) aces.

TABLE 8.1

SPECIAL COMPREHENSIVE STUDY

ESTIMATED COSTS (IN US$)

DURATION TOTAL ESTIMATED COSTS STUDY ITMnOrTT-'I POOlS 11* Uni UOIT'PUC TOPAT iPT',

1. General Review of Agriculture 1/ 1/71 31/12/71 75 56,000 294,000 350,000

a) Analysis of Present Agriculture Economy) 35 26,000 142,000 168,000 b) Demand for Agricultural Production ) Through period above 20 15,000 81,000 96,000 c) Production Targets for Agriculture ) 20 15,000 81,000 96,000

2. Development Potential of fLegion 1/ 1/71 30/ 6/73 13410.000 1 600 OOo 0-0o0

a) Land, Soils ancl Climate 1/ 1/71 30/ 6/71 30 24,000 115,000 139,000 b) Water Availability 1/ 1/71 30/ 6/71 50 4o,ooo 193,000 233,000 c) Agriculture Through Period 120 100,000 462,000 562,000 d) Fisheries 1/ 1/71 31/12/71 60 50,000 231,000 281,000 e) Animal Husbandry 1/ 1/71 31/12/71 60 50,000 231,000 281,000 f) Evaluation of Development Constraints Through Period 95 76,000 368,000 444,ooo

3. Flood Control Plannirx 1/ 1/71 31/12/71 200 145,000 710,000 855,000

a Flood Problem,, Trough Per-iod 5 36,ooo 178,0oo 214,000 b) Reconnaissance Investigations 60 45,000 212,000 257,000 c) MaJor Flood Investigations 50 36,ooo 178,000 214,000 d) Special Hydrological Survey 40 28,000 172,000

4. Specific Project Preparation Activities 1/10/70 30/ 6/71 58 39,000 236,000 o,000

a) Pesticide Project 1/ 1/71 1/ 3/71 6 4,000 24,000 28,000 b) T-veAtn'k P,oi.c+. 1/ 1/71 30/ 6/71 9 6.000 36;000 ),2j00n c) Fisheries Project 1/10/70 1/ 1/71 6 4,000 24,000 28,000 d) Research, Training & Extension 1/ 1/71 30/ 6/71 25 17,000 104,000 121,000 e) Basic Data Gatniering on Agriculture Economics 1/10/71 30/ 6/71 12 8,000 48,ooo 56,ooo

5. Power Surveys 1/ 1/71 31/12/71 65 60,000 250,000 310,000

6. Analysis of InterSectoral Links 1/ 1/71 3o/ 6/72 180 1'0.000 65o.ooo 800.000

a) Transport 85 72,000 315,000 387,000 b.)' ,po,er ard 'l. .lom,,.ent .,rugPeriod 40 000 165,o00 203,000 4 -V1115U 0 -i -l£iE)VJhOlUA - -O ... l i4&J)lU.AJ 10 '>, c) Industry 55 40,000 170,000 210,000

7. Program Formulation & Evaluation 30/ 6/72 31/112/73 L 260.o000 980,000 1.24o,000

8. Flood Consulting Group 1/ 1/71 31/12/74 100 70,000 660,ooo 730,000

9. 3Xstems Analysis & Methodological Studies 200 200,000 800,000 l,O'OOO

T)TAL 1,320,000 6,180,000 7,500,000

Hiarvard System Stutr 1/12/69 31/12/71

1/ Conmitrment reqTi1rmi nn1. in 1971 /7P

MAP I

INEPALIC; i L.a- UTXH j EAST PAKISTAN| | !I' /NID (11 A /(t2 >v,om v

1E0 h J \ Et: I wBE GAL )t L Tidal samps- S.ndcrbon forest

0,, ,/ P \ayS t ( , r ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Salinetidal acnd- -cn-pl-ted Amnn riP-

4XA.-4:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 1-- 0\ ' t -\ 1-->} ~~7Nk t '(A2.

A\'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 F [TT175;t

X~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Ine a,o l boNdO iesh1 |I

JUNE!970 SR IERD 3026~~~~~~~10

MAP 2

4 \ 1 0 jL t BkH U T AAN 7 _~~90 EAST PAKISTAN

|->\ j .\.^./EtT) a . BRKIGAL ,,)'j, / | H~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~iillyland

I ,_^ iC | k df , i 1 -- t 1 / E Uo~~~~~~~~~~~Minlywell-droined level highlond / , L / @z oo ;; --= 5 t1 *--, 8 t g 5hol~~~~~~~~Mieldwell-ddroined l evel highland a,nd poorly drained. level,

| > wr , a _ , -g-.i 3-, = -- 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~P)orlydrained level highland Lz6. 2 ; s . ' c anlw g ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Mixed shallowly-flooded annddeeply-flooded Io,,d I ll4a>|s{ tC,il ->,, i. - 2 42, Mainly deeply-flooded land26 | ,5. (i 5 ' Fj,tj ! ;-.oS -w. | / / l ~~~~~~~~SalinelaJnd (moinly non-soine in monsoon scason ,\ ; Gr \f, h. ] m ~~~~~~~~~~~Tidaliswamnps-Sundorbon forest | '4 1 | ? '>2Cy { I W wIl;")- ~~~~~~ASSAM Covered by the survey for the Joydepur reseaJrch station \ | | , S ._.A Infernulion.1 boundaries a ) 7 s $ g- i ,, X 2__ Pr~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~F1ovinciolboundaries i x ptl <|\, ; ~~~~~~~~~~~Source:Soil Survev Project of Prakistan, I1570

', ^14rw7 n :~~~~~~~~~~~~~ gr.1,

| I ptI r0 G

| W E STj Ae, B E NGA L iR i / J ri*~~~TH ET( \ \|

Bay~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Beg \f I I /-A~~

i~~~~~~~'' NWSTI,D! 'AI IN -

| / \ )\ t VURMA rAOS0] 8 91l R ASU>2 SA ,A,~~~~~~~~~RPLJAM

I ~~~~~~~aETN .Cg L' ... l k ,< ~~J< ZE0 60 S O0t\ WAeeinSTe \ENGaeJL eie/tLN | IE

yru CEYLoN o Jt,20 40 60 S0 Q00 20 140 lroSe- A

! lJ WS so KILOIMETERS 92 9 1 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~g JULY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~f 7r BD36

MAP 3

|NEPAL| - UTAN 9 WATER P,ROJECTS | t8D0 | 1t .ruA t.-1--AGRiC(UL1URE & WATER )I:vEtLUI`MLN1 ! 7 \A/EST RBENG_A I A,eoDsn.,..lly flooded

| 9 J ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-' A;je \(-t Brchmopulra right embankmnenl

// o6, / n ((ESt ,, ,1 , 1, | --- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~P,ovnc,ral boundor,res t /ff 0 >(n\<, 4or¢_fj22~~~C Tidal s.aoms-S.ndortro n forr-i;

~~~~~~~~jkD N8J>;--? L__ j\ -, Pojeciareais2- ( t .,8 ! <-Rr ngpurI ,, W !~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.Gonces-Kobrldzk, Kushfio uIni !O Little Fen, \ i4 _E 91 o>\ (? IRc,n ;.; J Dlna}lplrOU j°J %; ASSAM 2. I embankments .211 KhordurUpper .nw Kus,yraro

~~~~~~~A 6Mhu o o-No I XI V 4 ;lI fa l RNG PC,R 1 h t \ w \ ( ! ! \S / 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~7,Tubewells I (Infensive) 16. Songu . > ( f %\ X > *\ |. 6elk-rhi ~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~!7TbWl ~ k d ~~~~~~9., Jssore unit

W~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~y - -NS IXN -AH ; D77l

rv~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t -\(E STY L H] E BHTA

s~~~~~~~~~~~~.'en ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ hAISA'\6-|a O Z0 C o

|~ ~~~I-AroHjen gfe If0 f5n7 AO| tlL

9 J rJ t || a 7n 4n r n 80 '00 120 '40 '6 <.ajshX YLOhi1_ __ 6)90KIL4EARS97 11S_ ~ ~ ~ /R BN 24LY 97 _; 18D 407

MAP 4

.. ~~~~~~~~EAST PAM0STAN

* P chogi;--. .-00 RJhf t ' *-*2 * y R ;-\ - Sisdn~~~~~~~E.46gT-Jk Roo

| * * ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~B--dgcuge- eeti.qle tr.ck,rcil-zys

\ 9 S J . / | ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.-Min, irtl-d -t.-rwys oper c11yepr

KamolPur MILES SHILLONGi t*----- 0 ; 3 ~~~~~~~TO

t ;02\ XS S 6 _A ,,..'-''''''-""''-......

I 8,,+fE0CALCUTCLIh l >+ k; % 85: /RpngZr.....

alf ;, $A\ AR>gA < d0hoShe,pGMA;\ I HCALCUTTA *- SW\grffi°mesttE4) fC¢\)\\}?\ \XX )@z>V) - aA \It iAt , WSIroGO weA~Nato

_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _ |__ _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~h

JULY1 970 IBRD 3071~~~~~~~~~md.

fl 88° t U) T/ A N. 9;;l EAST PAK!SwTAN ~~~~~~~~~~~~MAP5l |NEPAL{ 1U TAt/N LAND SUITABILITY FOR IRRI AMA

/ 1> i i tXD ti~~~A / ~ Moiny v,ithout suppleelr ri gofion ( Jrk! < KWEST J~~~~BEGL A/ /Ir More Ihon 50 percent of land suiloble Nf Irri Aman

7\.i (bx 9t >Nu t S / > ( 1 J ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~20-50 percent of lond suitable for Inil Amon |f ) Q / < 4 2 \ W % < voU f B~~~~~r Ma,nly_ r_q.i,ing sgppl-ernew.y_!rrigat orl

a / _>- - _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~b~1 ui,ing_pum_dcioge and irrigalton

[ (/ ilua;JFltP 1Ut - ; t<0 Ak *l 3 < ~~~~~~~~~~~Northern limit of saline area betweeii August-Oecember I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ArfSswomps- ; a -i-LS,,nda,bwn fo-et| IX )4 r;>-,rl,ts ft \tv'N - -- 1 1,'R - LJ ~~~~~~~~~~~~.-red by the su,veyfor the Joydepu, re;eo,ch staiion

4 ft }+ \ \ - ftlH ~~0,4N 5SF . I ncioal bounda e s

j 7 g < / \.;ij( q | _. | / ) : ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...:e:Soil Survey Project of Pok,st3n, 1970

ISf)t70S 0a,4|!Xa ' -_nE; - km em lwi;I Sft(+ -i u - ~~~~~~~~~-> - Yi--~~~ SylKe t-;

I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~( "'XS-J58tIY L-'--' Ht1'AET NI

I2, j ^-;u _`01\\ND1;

;'~~~~~4

~~~~~~~~~~~~#\~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Yi i ~ IFRU N ' I A, \ XPKISA I A *.

ero#on~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IeF Ui RGA f i LAN w ||1I LSjA M

IL N97 I A _ILRD IL 3075

MAP 6

| 880t |( ¢\ XH U ~~~~~~~~~TN _EAST PAKISTAN tNEPAL;t | _A,\ < / jlAND SUITABILITY FOR IRRIl BORO I ! g W lNX D ~~~(I ( t, OR AUS WITH IRRIGATION

p e rc e n t o f l ond su dtab le fo r 1rri Eoro o r 1-t J -) - 9 I 1ll > S \QS <<, 5.G ~~~~~~~~~~~Covered by

InternaolionoI boundariesj 6 - I . ; t , ^ 6>., x ; >- \ g- 1 - :: 9 f 8 6 '~~~~{It6rp/ ~~__. ncial boundar,es ..... 2

1970 X( St t- T? >n !uf, @']o2g'~~-i...... !ee:Soil 1,l,j SJrvey Project d Pakistan, I f it'l9\;;.it.>rC.,..'rsJ..',,-,'j -- ,. JJ | r <4'}§'1 1ll;-l) ~m>

> I - . G . ? : 1 :.( . i -. -..1 tf til(. i ~ r :~~~~~~~~~~~~-.-.. |<~~~~~~~~~~. tti/\ ~i\ ;°M .dslC, 1 d~~~~~~~~ o o' !< . <

/ '} \ A| i\t jj X j A 0~~~F, 2\4) , I S - < it x g r | r R A ($, 1t S S

zrE i -;E .; 1t 5 ...... s. --;s2rtn,j...... \,1 X°inDlliz/ lly ~--, > *D*ttD'.f---- E,...... X , .Ji_ |ET>EGLJ 5c*:;1'4)1D | / < %_ $SL z , eaNr j ti < '-1

; e E, } Xt J Sulcutts & 1 . 9 -J- I0:

FWJ<;t-<0tdJ e~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-\;1i! 1S!Y| ,,; ,1 J_L.? IN '(51\I Al1131clvu|o-

%>' s9'-' ^|XB;fi.t.S1l'. TLAHLi',I_, __j, '1'- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IIIAS; AIM

0 NVvv- A_: _;> __0|& E> I L/L/l A'

| B o y o f Be n g o I } I X kJ-/tJN0- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~° \; F WA E51 7N BENGE IL {tK<[TtCHINA+jg

Icutto~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

JULY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~"97 LI, IBR\j H3072A-O.(~l

MAP 7

88 ' tt TA N 'O. _ EAST PAKISTTAN| g i I > t\ -*\ I / L~~~~~~IANDSU!JTARII!!TY FC)P I1%. jN' D 'l A,/¢t _ KHARIF GROUNDNu-rs j .1 , V, 1_| 1 BENLD,rEST( ,2t

TCt / rExiM t i a g AfS >? (, i ~~~~~~~~20-50 percent ofIond suiloble for Kharilfgroznn.s g3 /ax / oi | w11 Qwt ll a 1 r / / 1/1 ~~~~~Tidalswamps- Sundarbon forest

_ JZt ~~~~~~~~~~j I 1 -- z~~~~~~~~ Covered by the survey for Ihe Joydepur res earch station * ;s', 1 1$ ) . t ' nN - - _ . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Internatlionalbourido,,es

26 ' 'r 'u 2 e - ;Z_ Provincial boundaries26 r\ 1 -.. * | | :1 b / : ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Source:SodlSurvey Project of Pakistan, 1370 \ \t 1 >1 1\ 6ngDur - | _ 0 N.B. Irrigation not essential, Flood prottiction ond St Af 1>1 - l ! _>11 . f ~~~~~~~~~~~drrnuhuynot -- ,lwed.

I V V * 4 ~1,kRANUGPU4, - -.

i >1S wt , l 6 bt |2> 0>-V

7ti ;@ | E tt~~~--iC (- i- )I Mr -- <; _SYlht<"/;

| X > \ .\ *zishor;. i vt r | - ^ _ - S t X t 6 w814'A-AJ'> ({1 ' (~~~/)14 \ iA5gt\X9\231b-1 r> 1S;X 1~

,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ii1_ -1AI'l. D SY E fJAIM svFtr\1 ->T t AHS

i.s/t A i

~~~~~~~~~~P EJ;n

I VD S _wv | Bay of Bengol XII J9--t W l g ACoA X; I l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I~~~~~~~~~~~~

. .,/ \ "| ^ * * N A | | < y a lb

JULY~~~~970i U IA7 IBR

MAP 8

|NEPAL15L-L ;~~~~,H U TAFN 7 _EAST PAKISTAN

| 4 g2 l\P48DA /¢ . >61 1 IA~~IAK1% 51 ITA 9111ITV pr-

1'JX A ydr u wm Snu es

t X~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ia s.nrp -Sdra forest

/\~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bth sAve fo the Jodeu es rt,, stto

I Ns] ) -I X O I t aS\ XS f l I~~~~~~ntenawalbondaie

|~ ~ ~~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~lLH ~ ~| ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ore0 0 6 6 SoilSoSurve 0tan,P\jc of Pakoisno 19

I~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Rb40 5 Su0 !0 !0g,udn 5 shul beLO9,v, o0 idg DiI '- 90'ru-MEERS92't- ih fo, ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A S Mcgn I r-Ig insdsrbe u o s n o, JULY~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ms''dli ts90iIRDs07

MAP 9

88° /( 9 t\_ BkH U T AN EAST PAKISTAN NEPAL; \ / / i LAND SUITABILITY FOR WNHEAT

| >0 7 D tLA A | j ' WITH IRRIGATION

I I(. I wr4 0t Nt 2M. L/ r ri MoreM han 50 pe,rcent of aord s.iabletrforcwheat NI.V Na k~~~~~~~I/~~~(\/ I// LW ~~~~~~withIrrigation ~~ f-~~~>,L Nt(/) (') ~~~~~~y 20-50 percent at toandsitabte tar wneatwith '. kJ'~~~'~~2.I. 4 rid yr ~~~IIrrigation-- ''\.J?O~ S~~~~~~~X~ ~ ~~~ LIIi~~~~~Tidal nwa,,,pn- Suadarnon foren: Cnverd ha thi,-r fnrntar , Jet lei-, - -en h utatia

26 . ' *. International boundaries

__P-ovin6i 260 -26° (- %;> 86- ~\59

(i-l'.r.l 11|s-|,jr1t: ! = Source:|^ j Soil Survey Project of P?akisin, 1970 4 1 Cultivotion at wheatmright onlr bra at agon hr r~~~IIa. 1~~~~~~~'& ti ,I. A SA

0-joait_^Pw 11.s ^, . 2 | - .r ; tl ~ A SSAM ,. irrigation water is insafficient tar trantploeed rice ji , _ : Ft 11jr fx Jag/J \ i-r - ^

J i~ -'A ec.j , ] (-,J - .. E T

ff HX~~~~~~~~~~~_d f ni j -f er ,(,\i, j~ _ X<-L' %, L K,1 A fte/Ža)t.1 )2\..-'%i%(t I\> t>tJr - . g i 1^i . >J |)_ V ~ t ) -l . p " P j4Pr xr iC i I Ii' -'~~~~~~~~~% N L I I/ t ~~~~ ~ |-- hL)--}/.IA IS ti1 K-?LJt,-t-.7'-Yr. N - !Vtj._, K t ,I, " L"4I - S \YPR SI H{ L I \

FjY } : c- u -tr t 7t t, 1nu 'wK~'~n ' - §\yQy; ~ | |1 %2 t. F 10~~n-% -f>z ' .\<_i_tiz' Ite ;L{> 4 rRP A 4 nAs 4 S S M

I~~~~~~~~~~"E N$ IK 1 t

JULY9I cr/ t Di:Nlr'A 3 P ti 4K j-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-N L:~~~~~~'~ N

ft~~~TI.~,><;tJ L%a.-¾l L-.Boyvof Bngol N<11D i~ ji ; J?cocuttort, 51K t .3 -(p

V~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I 41 1JL5L11 -4O2 tjpB MA

nq Al~~~~~~~~~~~cmAtA

. ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ V _A

`,AIFGHANISTANtŽu&2YINEd f Begl-~~~

> 'I"~EST ICN Ait )1BP- 0 tA A INDIA tl RM CE -~~~ LAS ~EAST7PKSTAN L

T Arabian Sec oy fane \jHi~t,; 0 20 40 IE 60 60 100

L ~~~~~~~~~ ON0 20 40 60 ro io iO iO IC

JULY 1970 IBRD 3076

: ;, X, W E 0 'M a

0 pQX

: p O - ^ d. A > X < > W 4 o W : . | : o O X O w = C ~4 cU

lo s X< i A t W\ * ; ' ~~~~~~~~~~~>a 7 //___ jL-0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~W1 a5 Y~ CDv L - w _ m DeO|

~~~~0r v.' ')g_~ - 1 o o f t t O _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r