Scarcity and Surfeit The ecology of Africa's conflicts EDITED BY Jeremy Lind and Kathryn Sturman African Centre for Technology Studies and Institute for Security Studies Funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Governments of Sweden and Switzerland Published by the lnstitute for Security Studies, South Africa, 2002 Block C, 301 Brooklyn Court, Bronkhorst Street, New Muckleneuk, Pretoria First published in 2002 by the Institute for Security Studies All rights reserved by the publisher. Cover photographs: Upper front cover picture copyright: FotoStock SA. Lower front cover picture copyright: SA History Online Maps: Department of Public Information, Cartographic Section, United Nations Cover design: A1 Graphics/Andre Snyders Language editing: Denise Fourie and Kathryn Sturman Copyright in this volume and its individual chapters is vested in the Institute for Security Studies and the African Centre for Technology Studies. No chapter may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission, in writing, of the publisher. it should be noted that any opinions expressed are the responsibility of the individual authors and not the ISS nor ACTS. The publisher cannot be held legally accountable for facts and opinions expressed in this volume. ISBN: 1-919913-18-1 Preface vi Disclaimer viii Contributors ix 1. Contemporary Conflict Analysis in Perspective 1 1060 Gomes Porto Introduction Developing Theories of Conflict Analysis 'Greed versus Grievance': Tautological Debate or Two Sides of the Same Coin? The Multi-Level Nature and Dynamic Life Cycles of Armed Conflicts: Towards an Analytical Framework Ecological Sources of Conflict 2. Land Scarcity, Distribution and Conflict in Rwanda Jean Bigaga~~Carolyne Abong and Cede Mukarubuga Introduction Background to the Conflict Key Factors Key Actors Conflict Management Strategies Overview of the Environment Land as a Source of Conflict Conclusion 3. Conflict and Coffee in Burundi Johnstone Summit Oketch and Tam POker Introduction Background to the Conflict Pre-colonial Burundi Colonial Rule Post-independence Key Factors in the Conflict Conflict Resolution Overview of the Environment Land use: Blighted History and Natural (Mis)fortunes Conclusion 4. Coltan exploitation in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo Celine Moyroud and John Katunga Introduction Background to the Conflict Key Factors in the Conflict Other Causes of Conflict Peace Initiatives Overview of the Environment Coltan Exploitation in the Eastern DRC Conclusion 5. Oil and Water in Sudan Paul Goldsmith, Lydia A Abura and Jason Switzer Introduction Background to the Conflict Overview of the environment Case Study 1: The Jonglei Canal Case Study 2: Nuer-Dinka Violence Case Study 3: Private Sector Participation in Oil Production in Sudan Conclusion 6. Spilling Blood over Water? The Case of Ethiopia Fiona Flintan and lmeru Tamrat Introduction Background to the Conflict Underlying Causes of Conflict Overview of the Environment Agriculture Climate and Water Resources Management of Water Resources Case Study 1: The Awash River Basin Case Study 2: The Nile Basin Conclusion 7. Deegaan, Politics and War in Somalia Ibrahim Farah, Abdirashid Hussein and Jeremy Lind Introduction Background to the Conflict Peace and Reconciliation Initiatives Overview of the Environment Deegaan and Conflict in Jubbaland Conclusion 8. Conclusion - Where to from Here? Richard Cornwall Bibliography This book is a product of international and regional co-operation. Many scholars, government officials, non-governmental agencies and programme officers from various donor agencies have contributed to its conception and development. It forms part of the growing efforts of the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) to explore and promote understanding of the complex dimensions and causes of political conflicts in Africa. ACTS is an international inter-governmental policy research and training organization located in Nairobi, Kenya. The Centre's activities focus on the implementation of Agenda 21 and related conventions on biological diversity, climate change and desertification. The ISS is a regional applied policy research institute with offices in Pretoria and Cape Town with a mission to conceptualise, inform and enhance the secu- rity debate in Africa. The Institute undertakes research and analysis; supports policy formulation; awareness-raising; collecting, interpreting and disseminat- ing information on national, regional and international levels; and capacity- building. The publishers would like to thank Jeremy Lind and Raymond Kitevu for taking the overall lead in this study, the country study researchers for their tire- less efforts in gathering information and Adronico Aduogo Adede for compiling and editing the reports. We would also like to recognize the invaluable inputs of several staff members at the ACTS, particularly John Mugabe, the former Executive Director, Patricia Kameri-Mbote, the Director for Policy Research and Outreach, and Elvin Nyukuri who patiently worked on this project as an assis- tant to the researchers. At the ISS we would like to thank senior researchers Richard Cornwell and Jo2o Gomes Porto of the African Security Analysis Programme. Kathryn Sturman, senior researcher at the Institute, was responsible for the editing of the various chapters into a single coherent volume. Thanks also to ISS pub- lications manager Andre Snyders and librarian Mmaditshipi Seageng. Different chapters contained in this volume were first discussed as a draft at a Consultative Session and Regional Conference on 'the Ecological Sources of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa' in March 2002. We thank all those who partic- ipated in that conference for their very useful intellectual contributions. Their ideas have been "guide posts" in the long process of editing this volume. Given the fluidity of events in the Great Lakes and Greater Horn regions, it is important to note that most of the work for this book was completed in 2001, although it has been updated where appropriate. vii Finally, we would like to thank the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Governments of Sweden and Switzerland for providing the financial resources for the project. We acknowledge both intellectual and adminisua- tive support from Walter Knausenberger and Ned Greeley and many others at USAID, who participated in this project in one way or the other. It should be recognized that the contents of this book are wholly attributa- ble to the authors and do not in any way represent the views of the individu- als and institutions acknowledged. Judi Wakhungnu and Jakkie Cilliers ACTS and ISS Nairobi and Pretoria August 2002 viii The production of this hook was sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. Mac-Arthur Foundation, the United States Agency for International [Development's Regional Economic Development and Services Office (USAID/REDSO, Nairobi, Kenya)] and the Governments of Sweden and Switzerland. However, the contents are wholly attributable to the authors. No part of the content reflects the opinions of the donors or any institution related to ACTS or the ISS. Contributors Abdirashid Hussein is a consultant with the World Food Programme (WFP) in Somalia. Carolyne Abong is currently working with the standing committee for human rights in Kenya. At the time of undertaking this research she was a research fellow at the Centre for Conflict Resolution (CCR) in Kenya. Cecile Mukarubuga is a regional representative, Great Lakes Agency for Cooperation and Development (ACORD). Celine Moymud works as a member of the Conflict Prevention Network of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Poiitik (SWP). F~OMFlintan is the center manager at the International Famine Centre (IFC) in Ireland. Ibrahim Farah is an officer on the Somalia desk with the United States Embassy in Nairobi. At the time of undertaking this research he was a poiit- ical assistant/PhD student at the University of Nairobi in Kenya. Imeru Tarnrat is a food rights campaign coordinator at Action Aid, Ethiopia. Jakkie Cilliem is the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), South Africa. Jason Switzer is a project manager, environment and environment policy at International Institute for Sustainable Development (ISSD) in Geneva. Jean Bigagazo is a lecturer, Environmental Technologies at Kigali Institute of Science Technology and Management (KIST), Rwanda. Jeremy Lind is a PhD student. At the time of undertaking this research he was a research fellow at the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), Kenya. J& Gomes Porto is a senior researcher within the African Security Analysis Program, Institute for Security Studies (ISS), South Africa. John Katunga is a programmes coordinator with the Nairobi Peace Initiative (NPI). Johnstone Summit Oketch is a consultant/researcher with United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN/OCHA) in Nairobi. Judy Wakhungu is the Executive Director of the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS), Kenya. X Kathryn Sturman is a senior re5iearcher on intergovernmental organisations at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), South Africa. Lydia Abura is a rapporteur/political officer with the secretariat of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) based in South Sudan. Paul Goldsmith is a consultant/researcher with Kenya Agricultural