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EAC Trade Report 2018.Pdf (4.522Mb) THE EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY EAC TRADE AND INVESTMENT REPORT 2018 Maximizing Benefits of Regional Integration EAC Secretariat Arusha, Tanzania ED 18.8 EAC Trade and Investment Report 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1 PART I: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 5 1. CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND ....................................................................... 5 1.1. The East African Community ........................................................................... 5 1.2. Macroeconomic Context ................................................................................... 5 1.2.1. Global Economic Outlook .............................................................................................................. 5 1.2.2. Africa Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................... 7 1.2.3. EAC Macro Economic Performance ............................................................................................... 8 1.3. Merchandise Trade Trends ............................................................................. 19 1.3.1. Global Merchandise Trade ........................................................................................................... 19 1.3.2. Merchandise Trade in Africa ........................................................................................................ 20 1.4. Investment Trends ........................................................................................... 20 1.4.1. Global Investment Trends ............................................................................................................ 20 1.4.2. Africa Investment Trends ............................................................................................................. 22 PART II: TRADE AND INVESTMENT: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS ............................ 25 2. CHAPTER 2: EAC MERCHANDISE TRADE ........................................... 25 2.1. EAC Regional Merchandise Trade ................................................................ 25 2.2. Sectoral Distribution of EAC Trade ............................................................... 25 2.2.1. Total EAC Trade Trends ................................................................................................................ 25 2.2.2. Intra-EAC Merchandise Trade ...................................................................................................... 28 2.3. Country Specific Trade Trends ...................................................................... 30 2.3.1. Burundi ........................................................................................................................................ 30 2.3.2. Kenya ........................................................................................................................................... 36 2.3.3. Rwanda ........................................................................................................................................ 42 2.3.4. Republic of South Sudan .............................................................................................................. 48 2.3.5. United Republic of Tanzania ........................................................................................................ 52 2.3.6. Uganda ......................................................................................................................................... 58 2.4. Special Category Considerations in the EAC Customs Union .................. 67 2.4.1. EAC Imports of Goods under Exemption and Remission Schemes .............................................. 67 ii ED 18.8 EAC Trade and Investment Report 2018 2.4.2. EAC imports of Sensitive Products ............................................................................................... 69 2.4.3. EAC Imports of Excisable Goods .................................................................................................. 70 2.4.4. EAC Imports categorized by Tariff Bands ..................................................................................... 71 2.4.5. Customs Revenue Performance ................................................................................................... 72 2.5. Prospects for Growth of EAC Merchandise Trade ..................................... 74 3. CHAPTER 3: INVESTMENT TRENDS IN THE EAC ............................. 76 3.1. EAC Investment Outlook ................................................................................ 76 3.2. EAC Investment Flows .................................................................................... 76 3.3. Intra-EAC Investment Flows .......................................................................... 78 3.4. Initiatives to support investment at regional level ..................................... 79 3.5. Country Specific Analysis ............................................................................... 80 3.5.1. Burundi ........................................................................................................................................ 80 3.5.2. Kenya ........................................................................................................................................... 84 3.5.3. Rwanda ........................................................................................................................................ 89 3.5.4. South Sudan ................................................................................................................................. 92 3.5.5. Tanzania ....................................................................................................................................... 95 3.5.6. Uganda ....................................................................................................................................... 100 4. CHAPTER 4: CONCLUSIONS AND PROSPECTS ............................... 106 4.1. Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 106 4.2. Prospects for Growth of Trade and Investment Sectors in EAC ............. 107 iii ED 18.8 EAC Trade and Investment Report 2018 LIST OF TABLES 2:0.2 Bur Table 1.1: Summary of Global Output Growth 2014-2018 (percentage change) .................................................... 6 Table 2.1: Global Trade: Exports and Import, 2015-2018 (percentage growth) .......... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 2.2 : EAC-Total Trade Flows, 2014-2018 (US$ million and percentage change) .......................................... 26 Table 2.3: Total intra-EAC Trade, 2014-2018 (US$ million and percentage change) ............................................. 29 Table 2.4: Burundi: Intra-EAC Exports, 2014-2018 (US$ million) ......................................................................... 34 Table 2.5: Burundi's Trade with EAC Partner States, 2014-2018, (US$ millions) .................................................. 35 Table 2.6: Kenya Intra-EAC Exports, 2014-2018 (US$ million) ............................................................................. 40 Table 2.7: Kenya’s trade with EAC Partner States, 2014-2018 (US$ million) ........................................................ 40 Table 2.8: Rwanda Intra-EAC Exports, 2014-2018 (US$ million) .......................................................................... 45 Table 2.9: Rwanda's Trade with EAC Partner States, 2014-2018, (US$ million) ................................................... 47 Table 2.10: Rwanda Informal Cross Border Exports 2014-2018 (USD Million) ................................................... 47 Table 2.11: Rwanda Informal Cross Border Imports 2014-2018 (USD Million) ..................................................... 48 Table 2.12: South Sudan Trade with EAC Partner States, 2015-2018 ( USD Millions) ........................................... 50 Table 2.13: Tanzania’s intra-EAC exports, 2014-2018 (US$ million) ..................................................................... 56 Table 2.14:Tanzania’s trade with EAC Partner States, 2014-2018 (US$ million) ................................................... 57 Table 2.15: Uganda's Intra-EAC Exports, 2014-2018 (US$ million) .................................................................... 63 Table 2.16: Uganda’s Trade with EAC Partner States, 2014-2018, (US$ million) .................................................. 65 Table 2.17: Uganda’s Total Informal Exports, 2014-2018, (USD million) ............................................................ 66 Table 2.18 Uganda’s Total Informal Imports, 2014-2018, (US$ million) ............................................................... 66 Table 2.19: Duty foregone to exemptions/remisisons, 2014-2018 (USD ml and % change) ................................. 68 Table 2.20: EAC- Imports by Tariff Band, 2014-2018 (US$ million) ...................................................................... 72 Table 2.21: EAC- Customs Revenue Performance, 2015-2018 (US$ million and % change) ................................ 73 Table 3.1: FDI Flows by Region, 2015-2018 (US billions and percentage) ........................................................... 21 Table 3.2: FDI Inflows into EAC Region, 2014-2018 (US$ million and percentage
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