COMMENT Agree on variables BIOGRAPHY A wild ride with FICTION Kim Stanley Robinson FILM Psychology’s most to track from space for group-theory giant John mines interstellar travel infamous experiments conservation-target audit p.403 Horton Conway p.406 for human frailty p.407 on the big screen p.408 ROBIN HAMMOND/PANOS

A 200-kilometre pipeline from a Madagascan mine will result in the loss of biodiverse forest, which the company plans to offset. Stop misuse of biodiversity offsets Governments should not meet existing conservation targets using the compensation that developers pay for damaging biodiversity, say Martine Maron and colleagues.

iodiversity offsetting involves trying southern France to improve the of popularity, governments rich and poor to compensate for the damage to little bustards (Tetrax tetrax). Why? To com- have increasingly recognized that industry species and caused by devel- pensate for a high-speed rail project that will money generated by offsets can help them Bopment such as expanding cities, construct- damage the birds’ habitat2. to achieve conservation targets to which ing mines and building dams, by creating an Interest in offsetting has surged over they have already committed3 — such as ‘ecologically equivalent’ benefit elsewhere1. the past decade (see ‘All the rage’). Bil- those under the Convention on Biological For instance, since 2008, the French con- lions of dollars are spent each year on Diversity (CBD). struction company Oc’via and its partners planning and implementing offsets, and Yet such a diversion of offsets would be, in have invested millions of euros to man- schemes are now under way in nearly effect, an admission of failure. To be valid, age around 1,700 hectares of farmland in 40 countries. As the approach has gained an offset must yield conservation benefits

23 JULY 2015 | VOL 523 | NATURE | 401 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved proponents, to generate licence to social Arrangements driven can be by aproject’s on threatened and species native vegetation. requires developers toimpacts their offset required by law. Australia, for example, often by planting trees. In are some offsets cases, tus, say —or restoring habitat, for instance ing habitat — by giving an area protected sta can involve removing threats from an exist Biodiversity offsetting schemes vary. They NO NETLOSS through offsets. ing of protected-area outcomes achieved ments explicitly require separate account that future international conservation agree are not compromised. We recommend also agreements on protection the of biodiversity of offsetting that so existing international that IUCNprovide the on clear use the rules in October.expected We it think is crucial for biodiversity offsetting to develop guidance standards and global Union for of Conservation Nature (IUCN) are involved inan effort by International the gets are not met, or truly versa. vice Thus, either are offsets the but valid tar the 402 | NATURE402 | VOL | JULY 523|23 2015 gascar Minerals (QMM), of asubsidiary development ize only loss the attributable to a particular goalofbecause the an is offset to neutral ily mean that biodiversity stops declining, loss’ of biodiversity. not This does necessar try’s Bumbuna dam in2009 forest caused by completion the of coun the establishedLeone be damage the to offset to Lomathe Mountains National Park in Sierra projects countries in poor — proposed that helps— which to large fund development panel assembledexpert by World the Bank of funding organizations. For example, an operate, or by lending the requirements COMMENT and governments,indicatedbygrowing useoftheterminscholarlyliterature. In thepastdecade,conceptofbiodiversityo settinghasgainedpopularity withbusinesses ALL THERAGE Most schemes offset aim to achieve ‘no net are offsets Other negotiated by case case. Three of us (M.M.,B.G.M. and J.E.M.W.) Articles mentioning ‘biodiversity o sets’ as a that would have not otherwise occurred. percentage of those mentioning ‘protected area’ 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0 2000 6 . For instance, QIT Mada Scopus Google Scholar 2002 4 . Adraft report is 5 . 2004 2006 ------© 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Allrights reserved ers, as well as land for protected new areas. conservation agreements with landhold contribute to fund, the buy is which used developerssion. and Both government the on biodiversityeffects of city’s the expan Sydney’s Cumberland Plain to the offset lion) to protect threatened on woodlands around Aus$530 million (US$400 mil state of New South Wales up set a fundof areas. In 2008, for instance, Australian the andto conserve manage such protected ments are starting to offsetting use schemes marine areas by 2020. 10% of and coastal inland water) and areas (includingtrial of world’s the terres areas — at least 17% managing protected establishing and —throughserve Target 11 is to con diversity Targets. to convention the agreed on Aichi the Bio CBD. In 196 nations 2010,the that are party schemes overlook latter. the tions to redress threats. those Too many threats and any genuine future inten mustscenario probable both reflect future countoffset) The baseline offsets. as valid have happened without impact the or the tional to a baseline scenario (what would Only biodiversity that benefits are addi EXISTING COMMITMENTS estimates year 0.9%per to be annual rate of forest loss QMM —which net loss’ mean maintaining will baseline the oxide) mine in Madagascar. In ‘no case, this operations of its ilmenite (a titanium–iron forestral that disappear will as aresult of the forest to 1,665 hectares the offset of rare litto has committed to protecting at least enough multinational mining company Tinto, Rio Numerous govern Take commitments the made under the 2008 2010 - - - “For wealthier offsetting.” biodiversity funds from the useof imposed on should be controls nations strict 2012 7 . 2014 ------For some developing countries, such as HONEST ACCOUNTING caused by mine. the concomitantthe damage to biodiversity targetsservation without having to declare progress towards its previously agreed con national parks reporting when country’s the The Panamanian government can list these protectednew area established to be nearby parks (Santa Fe and Omar Torrijos), and a coststhe of managing two existing national compensate, company the contribute will to trations of threatened To on species Earth. This region has one of highest concen the ica’s Mesoamerican Biological Corridor. 5,900 hectares of forest from Amer Central to resultis expected loss inthe of around First Quantum Minerals, among others), project (financed by mining the corporation count towards Australia’s national targets. from other protected newly areas that should areas that are way inthis funded separately Yet no mechanism exists to audit protected house-gas emissions. Although details the trees and reduce growth the green inglobal tives for developing countries to conserve forest degradation. REDD+ offers incen reducing emissions from and Convention on Climate Change for policies REDD+, United the Nations Framework accounting is feasible, as demonstrated by alongside that losses the them. trigger areastected separately must tallied be —and management. pro But offset-funded these to protected new offsets fund areas and their Convention. under CBD the and World the Heritage ing from its inter government withdraw would ineffect, be, protected-area management. the Otherwise, quality beyond for that expected standard only used forbe actions to improve water Area age Marine Reef Barrier Park and World Herit oninfrastructure water quality Great inthe to counter of dollars into government-managed funds companies and other industries pay millions ernment has started requiring that mining past few years,in the Australian the gov from biodiversity offsetting. For instance, trols should on imposed of use the be funds withdrawal is harder to con defend —strict protected areas. of to management use the the fund offsets of understandable; at would least this validate drawal from such commitments would be population. In such honest cases, with to of needs the and apoor fast-growing tion targets may prove beyond reach Mozambique, Aichi the and other conserva Similarly, Cobre the Panama copper-mine A more robust system for ecological It is reasonable, and often desirable, for For wealthier nations —where such a 10 . We argue that money this must balance the effects of port effects new balance the ­ ­national commitments 9 owing owing 8 ------.

ANALYSIS: M.M. ET AL. DATA SOURCE: GOOGLE SCHOLAR/SCOPUS COMMENT

of REDD+ mechanisms and funding are

USGS still being developed, the signatories have agreed on the need to establish realistic baseline rates of forest loss from which to calculate emissions reductions (see go.nature.com/gofoch). With care, offsets can help to reconcile development and conservation. But if they allow governments to renege on their commitments by stealth, biodiversity off- sets could cause more harm than good. ■

Martine Maron is associate professor in environmental management and an Australian Research Council future fellow in the School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. Ascelin Gordon is a vice-chancellor’s senior research fellow in the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies at RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria. Brendan G. Mackey is director of the Griffith Climate Change Response Program at Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia. Hugh P. Possingham is an Australian Research Council laureate fellow at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, and professor of conservation decisions at Estuary sediment and vegetation patterns in Australia, captured by NASA’s Landsat 8 satellite in 2013. Imperial College London, UK. James E. M. Watson is associate professor of environmental management at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Agree on biodiversity Australia, and director of the Science and Research Initiative at the Wildlife Conservation Society. metrics to e-mail: [email protected] 1. Bull, J. W., Suttle, K. B., Gordon, A., Singh, track from space N. J. & Milner-Gulland, E. J. Oryx 47, 369–380 (2013). 2. Aiama D. et al. No Net Loss and Net Ecologists and space agencies must forge a global Positive Impact Approaches for Biodiversity: (International Union for Conservation of monitoring strategy, say Andrew K. Skidmore, Nature, 2015); available at go.nature.com/ gfkgkz Nathalie Pettorelli and colleagues. 3. Pilgrim, J. D. & Bennun, L. Conserv. Lett. 7, 423–424 (2014). 4. International Union for Conservation of Nature. Biodiversity Offsets Technical Study lobal is intensifying. Satellite remote sensing is crucial to Paper (International Union for Conservation But it is hard to assess progress getting long-term global coverage. It can of Nature, 2014); available at go.nature. com/5fcpj1. towards the Aichi Biodiversity Tar- rapidly reveal where to reverse the loss of 5. Kormos, R. et al. PLoS ONE 9, e111671 Ggets for 2011–20 set by the Convention on biological diversity on a wide range of scales (2014). Biological Diversity (CBD). Target 5, for in a consistent, borderless and repeatable 6. Maron, M., Bull, J. W., Evans, M. C. & Gordon, 2 A. Biol. Conserv. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ instance, aims to halve global deforesta- manner . Quantities such as vegetation pro- j.biocon.2015.05.017 (2015). tion rates by 2020; but reliable indicators ductivity or leaf cover can be measured 7. Temple, H. J. et al. Forecasting the Path for deforestation that can be monitored across continents from space. But there is no Towards a Net Positive Impact on Biodiversity remotely have not been developed or agreed agreement on how to translate these meas- for Rio Tinto QMM (International Union for Conservation of Nature, 2012); available at on. National biodiversity monitoring pro- urements into metrics that are relevant for go.nature.com/29puf2 grammes differ widely, most data sets are biodiversity monitoring. 8. The Biodiversity Consultancy. Independent inconsistent, and few data are shared openly. We call on conservation and space agen- Report on Biodiversity Offsets (International Union for Conservation of Nature, To focus priorities, ecologists have pro- cies to agree on a definitive set of biodiver- International Council on Mining and Metals, posed classes of ‘essential biodiversity sity variables and how these will be tracked 2012); available at go.nature.com/jxrht9 variables’ — including species traits and from space, to address conservation targets. 9. Watson, J. E. M., Dudley, N., Segan, D. B. & populations, and ecosystem function and Methods to derive these variables and the Hockings, M. Nature 515, 67–73 (2014). 1 10. Bos, M., Pressey, R. L. & Stoeckl, N. Environ. structure . But measuring these on the set of satellites needed to observe them must Sci. Policy 42, 1–15 (2014). ground is laborious and limited. also be decided, to ensure continuous

23 JULY 2015 | VOL 523 | NATURE | 403 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved