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BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS of CHAMBO (Oreochromis Spp.) and KAMBUZI

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BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS of CHAMBO (Oreochromis Spp.) and KAMBUZI BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CHAMBO (Oreochromis spp.) AND KAMBUZI (small Haplochromine spp.) FISH STOCKS OF LAKE MALOMBE PhD (AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES SCIENCE) THESIS WALES SINGINI UNIVERSITY OF MALAŴI BUNDA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE NOVEMBER 2013 BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CHAMBO (Oreochromis spp.) AND KAMBUZI (small Haplochromine spp.) FISH STOCKS OF LAKE MALOMBE WALES SINGINI MSc (AFS), BSc (Agric) A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (Ph.D) IN AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF MALAŴI BUNDA COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE NOVEMBER 2013 DECLARATION I, Wales, Singini declare that this thesis is a result of my own original effort and work, and that to the best of my knowledge, the findings have never been previously presented to the University of Malawi or elsewhere for the award of any academic qualification. Where assistance was sought, it has been accordingly acknowledged. Parts of the materials presented in this thesis have been published and they appear as:. Wealth based fisheries management of Orechromis species (Chambo) of Lake Malombe in Malawi (2013), International Journal of Fisheries and Aquaculture: Logit analysis of socio- economic factors influencing intertemporal preference of fisheries resource users of Lake Malombe in Malawi (2013), Journal of Applied Social Sciences: Modelling and forecasting Oreochromis species (Chambo) production in Malaŵi – A stochastic model approach (2013), Recent Research in Science and Technology: Bioeconomic approach to rebuilding Oreochromis species of Lake Malombe, Malaŵi (2012), Journal of Engineering Science and Technology: Bioeconomic approach to rebuilding Small Haplochromine species of Lake Malombe, Malawi (2012) Journal of Scientific and Technology: Modelling and forecasting small Haplochromine species (Kambuzi) production in Malaŵi – A Stochastic Model Approach (2012), Journal of Scientific and Technology Research. Wales Singini Signature: Date: i CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL We, the undersigned, certify that this thesis is a result of the author’s own work, and that to the best of our knowledge, it has not been submitted for any other academic qualification within the University of Malawi or elsewhere. The thesis is acceptable in form and content, and that satisfactory knowledge of the field covered by the thesis was demonstrated by the candidate through an oral examination held on [11, 11, 2013]. Major Supervisor: Professor Emmanuel K. Kaunda Signature: Date: Supervisor: Dr.. Victor Kasulo Signature: Date: Supervisor: Dr. Wilson Lazaro Jere Signature: Date: ii DEDICATION To my wife Smeda Matundu, you have been patient and committed to my study. I left you alone at home but you encouraged me. Our parents, brothers and sisters for being there for me. Professor Emmanuel Kaunda , you have taken me throughout my education at Bunda (BSc, MSc and PhD). iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION.................................................................................................................i CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL ................................................................................... ii DEDICATION.................................................................................................................. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................ix LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. x LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ......................................................xiv CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Overview of global fisheries ................................................................................ 1 1.2. Overview of Malawi fisheries .............................................................................. 3 1.3. Overview of Lake Malombe fisheries .................................................................. 4 1.4. Objectives of the study ......................................................................................... 8 1.4.1. Specific objectives ........................................................................................ 8 1.4.2. Hypothesis..................................................................................................... 8 1.5. Significance of the study ...................................................................................... 9 1.5.1. The choice of Lake Malombe ....................................................................... 9 1.5.2. Importance of bioeconomic approach in fisheries management ................. 12 1.5.3. Importance of time series in fisheries management .................................... 16 iv CHAPTER TWO ............................................................................................................. 20 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................... 20 2.1. History of fisheries management in Malawi. ..................................................... 20 2.2. Research contribution to fisheries management of Lake Malombe ................... 21 2.3. Bioeconomic approach to rebuilding fisheries ................................................... 26 2.4. The role of intertemporal preference in fisheries management .......................... 39 2.5. Theories of Box-Jenkins models ........................................................................ 45 CHAPTER THREE ......................................................................................................... 49 MATERIALS AND METHODS .................................................................................... 49 3.1. Study area ........................................................................................................... 49 3.2. Data collection.................................................................................................... 52 3.2.1. Intertemporal preference data ..................................................................... 52 3.2.2. Bioeconomic and time series data............................................................... 53 3.2.3. Field data collection .................................................................................... 54 3.2.4. Cost structure data....................................................................................... 55 3.3. Data analysis ...................................................................................................... 56 3.3.1. Intertemporal preference data analysis ....................................................... 56 3.3.2. Time series analysis ................................................................................... 67 3.3.3. Bioeconomic parameter estimation............................................................. 75 3.3.4. Estimation of reference points ................................................................... 81 3.3.5. Trend analysis of annual economic rent ..................................................... 86 3.3.6. Estimation of present value ......................................................................... 87 CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................ 89 v RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 89 4.1. Intertemporal preference .................................................................................... 89 4.1.1. Frequency of respondents’ intertemporal preference ................................. 89 4.1.2. Logit model evaluation ............................................................................... 91 4.1.3 Statistical tests of individual predictor variables ........................................ 92 4.2. Time series ......................................................................................................... 94 4.2.1. Stationarity of time series data .................................................................... 94 4.2.2. First differencing of Chambo and Kambuzi catch data ............................ 100 4.2.3 Model estimation ...................................................................................... 107 4.2.3 Model selection ......................................................................................... 109 4.14. Forecasted catches of Chambo and Kambuzi .............................................. 113 4.3. Bioeconomic analysis ....................................................................................... 117 4.3.1 Estimates of bioeconomic parameters ...................................................... 117 4.3.2. Estimates of MSY, MEY and OAY .......................................................... 118 4.3.3 Estimates of MSY and MEY costs, revenues and economic rents
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