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Exploring Perceptions of Shakealert During the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

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Exploring Perceptions of Shakealert During the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence Failure to alert? Exploring perceptions of ShakeAlert during the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence Sara K. McBride, Ph.D. Social Science Research Coordinator – ShakeAlert Project Earthquake Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Jeannette Sutton2, Michele Marie Wood3, Lori Peek4, Robert M de Groot5, Andrea L Llenos6, Grace Alexandra Parker7, Danielle F Sumy8, Douglas D Given9, Pascal Schuback10, Ryan Arba11, Rachel Sierer- Co-Authors Wooden11, Emily Holland11, Holly Porter12, Candice Hadley12, Darius Fattahipour12, Alex Bell13 and Gabe Kearney14 1)U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Kennewick, SPECIAL THANKS TO JASON United States, (2)University of Kentucky, Department of BAUMGARTNER, PUSHSHIFT Communication, Lexington, KY, United States, (3)California State University Fullerton, Fullerton, CA, United States, (4)University of Colorado Boulder, Sociology and Natural Hazards Center, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)United States Geological Survey - Earthquake Science Center, ShakeAlert Project, Pasadena, CA, United States, (6)USGS California Water Science Center Menlo Park, Menlo Park, CA, United States, (7)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (8)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (9)USGS, Pasadena, CA, United States, (10)Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup, Seattle, United States, (11)California Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento, United States, (12)San Diego Office of Emergency Services, San Diego, United States, (13)San Diego Office of Emergency Services, San Diego, United States, (14)California Office of Emergency Services, Sacramento, United States SOCIAL SCIENCE AND SHAKEALERT An Overview of the ShakeAlert Communication, Education, and Outreach Program Social Science Research Initiative SARA K. MCBRIDE AND ROBERT DE GROOT USGS ShakeAlert Project ShakeAlert Joint Committee for Communication, Education, and Outreach (JCCEO) National Committee Chair Robert de Groot USGS JCCEO Mission: "Supporting the Vice Chair ShakeAlert System through coordination, Jennifer Strauss UC Berkeley collaboration, and community building." Emergency Social\Science Geological Surveys Research Management Special Assignment Technical Implentation Sara K. McBride and Engagement USGS Cal OES Educational Resources California Danielle Sumy (lead) Rachel Sierer Wooden Cynthia Pridmore IRIS Ryan Arba Shelley Olds Northern CA UNAVCO USGS Liaisons Jennifer Strauss Washington Washington UC Berkeley EMD Corina Forson Emergency Office of Megan Anderson Maximilian Dixon Management Communications Southern CA Brian Terbush Josh Bruce Paul Laustsen Margaret Vinci Chelsea Nied Univ of Oregon Oregon Catherine Puckett Caltech Yumei Wang Oregon OEM Congressional Affairs Washington Chris Trent Althea Rizzo William Steele Univ of Washington British Policy and Analysis Esther Eng Columbia James Mitchell (affiliate) Teron Moore (ONC) Oregon Samara Aitken (EMBC) December 2019 Lucy Walsh Univ of Oregon JCCEO Standing Working CEO Plan Groups • CRWG = Community Resources Working Group (WG) • EAWG = External Affairs WG • EMWG = Emergency Management WG *+ • ERWG = Educational Priority Areas [lead WG(s)] Resources WG • SSWG = Social Science WG 1. Public Safety, Preparedness, and Resilience [EMWG] • TUWG = Technical User WG 2. Technical Implementation and User Engagement [TUWG] 3. Consistent Messaging and Communication [EAWG, CRWG, & SSWG] 4. Integration with Other Federal and State Earthquake Hazards Products [EAWG & TUWG] 5. Educational Resources Development and Dissemination [ERWG] *Social science research is a part of all five priorities (e.g. post alert messaging, WEA messaging, protective actions, logo style guide, WEA test analysis, etc. All social sciencce projects address critical needs for ShakeAlert Operations. + Special consideration is given to address the needs of diverse communities: e.g. limited literacy, limited English proficiency, disabilities, access, and functional needs. ShakeAlert is committed to serving all end users. Goals DEVELOP UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE ESTABLISH A LONG POPULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN TERMS OF RISK PERCEPTION, PROTECTIVE ACTION TERM MONITORING KNOWLEDGE, AND BASIC PREPAREDNESS AND EVALUATION PLAN ACROSS WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND CALIFORNIA. FOR SHAKEALERT PROJECTS IN 8 ACTIVE PROJECTS 2019/2020 9 UNIVERSITIES/RESEARCH AGENCIES FROM 5 STATES AND TWO COUNTRIES About the alerting platforms: • Only one alerting platform publicly available at the time: the ShakeAlertLA app developed by the City of Los Angeles. (There are now three). • Alerting thresholds were set for M5.0+ and MMI 4+. • Due to public response, thresholds for apps were lowered to M4.5+ and MMI 3+. • Caltech developed UserDisplay was available to select ShakeAlert users only but filmed live during a media conference during the Ridgecrest sequence. About the ALERTS WERE NOT WHILE THRESHOLDS THE APP DID NOT Ridgecrest SENT OUT VIA THE MIGHT HAVE BEEN PROVIDE SHAKEALERTLA APP MET FOR THE M7.1, INFORMATION Earthquakes FOR EITHER THE THE SHAKEALERT ABOUT THE M6.4 AND M7.1 SYSTEM ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKES ON and EARTHQUAKES DUE THE EARTHQUAKE THEIR MAP OR TO NEITHER AT M6.3 RATHER RECENT ShakeAlertLA MEETING THE THAN AN M7.1. EARTHQUAKE LISTS ESTIMATED SHAKING THRESHOLD.. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Media analysis: 69 stories analyzed from July – November 2019 about the Ridgecrest earthquakes. Stories collected via Google News; searches began 36 hours post first event and continued monthly after the first searches until November 2019. All stories were coded in NVIVO, using thematic analysis. 600,000+ tweets was the data set as collected by Pushshift by Jason Baumgartner. Collection began within 24 hours of the M6.4 quake, in time to collect real time data from the M7.1 quake. Social Media analysis: 2,100 analyzed and 1600+ coded from the date of the first earthquake until 10 days later. Search terms were: #shakealert and #shakealertla. All tweets were coded in NVIVO, using thematic analysis. TYPES OF MEDIA ANALYZED • PRINT (NEWSPAPERS) • LOCAL/REGIONAL • TELEVISION • NATIONAL • RADIO • INTERNATIONAL (WIRES) • ELECTRONIC MEDIA (ONLINE ONLY) • MAGAZINE • BLOGS RIDGECREST EARTHQUAKES MEDIA Anchorage Earthquake Sequence BOMBAY BEACH SWARM 2016 COMPARISON OF MEDIA ANALYZED BY THE THREE SEQUENCES PRELIMINARY FINDINGS – MEDIA ANALYSIS Third most coded theme 25 articles out of the Top three themes in media stories; the were: ShakeAlertLA (19 69 analyzed mentioned other first was articles), Threshold (19 ShakeAlert. aftershocks (52 stories), other than the original articles), and Failure earthquakes (10). PRELIMINARY FAILURE (446 POOR MEDIA STORIES ANALYSIS – TWEETS OUT OF PERFORMANCE E.G. WERE THE ONLY THE 1668 TWEETS). BATTERY DRAIN, LINKS OR SOCIAL PEOPLE WERE LOCATION ISSUES COMMENTS DISAPPOINTED IN (NOT JUST FAILURE RETWEETED AFTER MEDIA THE APP (RATHER TO ALERT) WAS 72 HOURS POST THE THAN MENTIONING ALSO AN ISSUE, LAST LARGE THE FAILURE ONLY). WITH 38 TWEETS EARTHQUAKE. EXPLORING THIS ISSUE. NO ALERT DESPITE PERCEIVED INTENSE FAILURE: LACK SHAKING FELT WIDELY THROUGHOUT OF ALERT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALONE WAS NOT THE ONLY ISSUE (446 TWEETS SEARCHING FOR USGS WEBSITE ISSUES AUTHORATIVE CAUSED FURTHER INFORMATION FOR ON FAILURE) FRUSTRATIONS. CONFIRMATION AND FINDING NONE. CONFUSION POINTS • THRESHOLD (MMI/MAG): PEOPLE WERE MOST CONFUSED ABOUT MMI/MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES (256 tweets). • WEA TESTS: WEA TESTS CONDUCTED IN SAN DIEGO 10 DAYS PRIOR (4 tweets). • SHAKEALERT (USGS)/SHAKEALERTLA (CITY OF LOS ANGELES)/USERDISPLAY (92 tweets). • MISINFORMATION ON TWITTER E.G. EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (21 tweets). Questions and comments about ShakeAlert • 57 TWEETS DEDICATED TO ASKING FOR IT IN THEIR COUNTIES (SAN BERNARDINO, KERN, SAN DIEGO), DESPITE FAILURE NARRATIVES. • 11 TWEETS CLAIMED TO UNINSTALL APP AND 5 EXPLORED LOSS OF TRUST. • 4 TWEETS TALKED ABOUT TESTING THE SYSTEM. • 85 TWEETS ON SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENTS OF THE APP (MOSTLY AROUND CHOOSING THEIR OWN ALERTING THRESHOLDS). HUMOR – CODED 60 TIMES TOP 12 TWEETS FOR SHAKEALERT 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1603744 13761 238 RepAdamSchiff 844041 Favorites Count LACity 3455386 seaveyybessonn tictoc 3455386 latimes 9901 Retweet Count latimes 8843 3455386 ronlin Reply Count USGS_ShakeAlert 844041 latimes 148241 tictoc 27287 mattdpearce ReadySanDiego Reply Count Retweet Count Favorites Count TOP INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS WITH HIGHEST FOLLOWING • 4 out of TOP 10 personal accounts linked to media stories. • Only 1 of the top retweeted tweets came from the Top 10 personal accounts. • 4 of the Top 12 tweets came from personal accounts rather than organizational, media, or political accounts. SHAKEALERT IS SHAKEALERTS THE USGS NOW IN LIVE ARE ALSO WEBSITE IS TESTING MODE AVAILABLE VIA UPDATED IT IN CALIFORNIA. WIRELESS HELD UP MYSHAKE IS EMERGENCY DURING A LEARNING ALSO ALERTS. RECENT AVAILABLE. EARTHQUAKE IN THE LESSONS BERKELEY. SHAKEALERTLA HAS A LOWERED THRESHOLD. CONCLUSIONS • THE COMMUNICATION OF FAILURE WAS NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD. • MEDIA STORIES FOCUSED ON FAILURE BUT ALSO ON THE THRESHOLDS. • RATHER, THE FAILURE WAS PERCEIVED AS A LACK OF INFORMATION IN OUR COMMUNICATION ECOSYSTEM. DIVERSITY OF COMMUNICATION CHANNELS COULD IMPROVE THIS OUTCOME FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKES. • WHILE LOWERING THE THRESHOLDS WAS POPULAR, THERE WERE DISENTING OPINIONS BY INFLUENCERS ON TWITTER. • THE INDIVIDUAL INFLUENCERS WERE NOT NECESSARILY THE MOST RETWEETED ACCOUNTS. • MEDIA CONTINUES TO HAVE A CRITICAL ROLE TO THE COMMUNICATION OF SHAKEALERT, SHIFTING THEIR PLATFROMS FROM BROADCAST TO INCLUDE SOCIAL MEDIA FOR DISSEMINATION QUESTIONS? [email protected] OR AND STORY GATHERING. AFTER THE FIRST FIVE DAYS, ONLY MEDIA STORIES WERE RETWEETED. @DISASTROUSCOMMS.
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