Abraham Diskin Municipal Elections 2008

Israel Office_________________________ The 2008 Municipal Elections in Israel – Outcome and Political Implications Abraham Diskin* On November 11 Israel held level, especially because of proper its municipal elections in 164 interference of the Minister of the settlements. 660 candidates Interior in most cases where competed on the post of mayor. A clashes between the mayor and the second round of the elections – in council occurred. 31 settlements where the race was An attempt to follow the not decided in the first round – took municipal electoral-governmental place on November 25. General system and to adopt a double- elections to the Israeli parliament, ballot system on the national level the Knesset, are scheduled to failed. In 1996 and in 1999 Israel February 10, 2009. The municipal had double elections for its elections, in which half of the parliament – the Knesset, and its eligible voters participated, are prime minister, but both Likud’s regarded by many as an indicator Benjamin Netanyahu, who was of the possible outcome of the elected as prime minister in 1996 Knesset elections. In the following and Labour’s Ehud Barak, who was pages we shall demonstrate elected in 1999, failed to maintain a however that the correlation majority coalition in the Knesset between municipal and general and lost their position. In 2001 elections in Israel is quite weak. Israel held ‘special’ elections of its prime minister (without having parallel elections of the Knesset). The Israeli Voting System – Likud’s Ariel Sharon was elected Between Municipal and General and on the day that he presented Elections his new government to the Knesset he also insisted that the Knesset Thirty years ago, in 1978, would change Basic Law: The Israel used for the first time a Government , such that Israel will double-ballot electoral system in its return to a single ballot vote and to municipal elections. On one ballot a regular parliamentary system. the voters were asked to support The relative success of the their preferred candidate for the double-ballot system on the position of mayor. On the other municipal level contradicted its ballot they were asked to support evident failure on the national level. their preferred list-of-candidates for This is only one example of the the municipal council. The system different lessons that one can be worked quite well on the municipal draw from a comparison between 1 Israel Office_________________________ general and local elections in There is a huge difference Israel. Thus, while in the Knesset between turnout in municipal and elections of 1977, for the first time national elections. In the 1950s and in the history of Israel, a right-wing the 1960s many municipal leader, Menachem Begin of the elections took place on the same Likud, came to power, Labour day of Knesset elections. Hence, came as the winner in the 1978 the level of participation in both municipal elections. Furthermore, types of elections was quite similar, according to exit polls conducted in and usually, the parties supported the 1978 municipal elections, it on both levels were not much seemed that Labour was expected different. In recent years, municipal to return to power on the national and national elections are not held level as well. But the hopes of the on the same date. The turnout in left wing opposition parties to return Jewish settlements tends to be to power did not materialize, and much lower in municipal elections the following general elections of (compared to general elections), 1981 ended in another Likud while turnout in Arab settlements victory. It was proved once and tends to be much higher on the again that 1977 was a turning municipal level. This phenomenon point. Labour hardly succeeded to can be explained by the deep return to power and its leaders involvement of most Jewish voters served as prime ministers only in in ‘big politics’ issues, which are three occasions: Peres between regarded by many as existential. 1984 and 1986, Rabin (and Peres) Among Arab voters one may detect between 1992 and 1996, and a certain degree of alienation on Barak between 1999 and 2001. national issues. At the same time, many Arab voters are often deeply involved in local politics that reflect, The Turnout of Voters – Arab for example, rivalries between Local Patriotism vis a vis leading extended families National Alienation? (‘khamulas’) and controversies on local day-to-day issues. There are many reasons for Among Jews, turnout in the difference between electoral upper class neighborhoods is much results on the municipal level and higher than in lower class electoral results on the national neighborhoods. While upper class level. One prominent reason is the voters tend to support left-of-center level of participation of different parties, lower class voters tend to segments of the general public in support right-of-center parties. different types of elections. It Thus, the drop in the general should also be mentioned that turnout in the 1978 municipal ‘permanent residents’ who are not elections compared to the 1977 Israeli citizens can participate in Knesset elections was more acute local elections but cannot among the lower strata voters and participate in general elections. caused the misleading prediction of the 1978 exit polls. 2 Israel Office_________________________ Such differences in the level population is usually characterized of participation occurred again and by a very high turnout. again, and although the turnout in In Jerusalem there is also a the last Knesset elections in 2006 large Arab population. But while dropped to a record low (63.5% Arabs in the settlements mentioned compared to the regular 75%+), the above had been Israeli citizens turnout in municipal elections is prior to the 1967 Six-Days war, the much lower in Jewish settlements. Jerusalem Arab population lived Thus, in Tel Aviv – the second under Jordanian rule until 1967. largest city – only 130,189 of the Furthermore, the Arab population 399,696 of the eligible voters cast of Jerusalem is almost four times valid votes (32.6%). In Haifa, the as big as it was in 1967. Many third largest city, the rate of valid Arabs who lived all over the votes of the electorate was 35.3%, (previously Jordanian) West Bank in the forth-largest city, Petakh- immigrated to Jerusalem and Tikvah, the rate was 45.3%, in the acquired voting rights in the fifth-largest city Ashdod it reached municipal elections. The Jerusalem a relative peak of 52.8%, in the Arab population, unlike the sixth-largest city, Natanya, it was ‘veteran’ Arab population, tends to 39.8%, and in the seventh-largest boycott the elections. In fact, a city and the largest southern city of prominent religious Moslem leader Israel, Beer-Sheva, it was 38.8%. announced in a ‘Fatwa’ prior to the The situation is completely elections according to which Arabs opposite in Arab settlements. In the who participate in the municipal largest Arab city, Nazareth, the rate elections deserve a death penalty. of valid votes out of the general Hence, the electoral battle in electorate was 70.4%. In the Jerusalem focused on the race second-largest Arab city, Um-el- between the Jewish religious and Fakhem, the rate was 77.7%, and secular voters. in the third-largest Arab settlement, In the 2003 elections, for the Rahat, it reached 89.3%. In many first time in its history, Jerusalem smaller Arab villages the rate was elected and ultra-orthodox higher than 90%. candidate, Uri Lupolianski of the ‘United Torah Judaism’, as its mayor. He was supported by Municipal Elections in Jerusalem 51.6% of the valid votes, compared – A Secular or a Religious to 42.7% who supported a non- Capital? partisan secular candidate, Nir Barkat. The remaining votes were In 2008, elections of special distributed among four other interest took place in Israel’s capital candidates. Lupolianski enjoyed and largest city, Jerusalem. A very some support among secular Jews, large segment of the Jewish and succeeded to gain at least a population consists of religious minimal support in every polling ultra orthodox voters. This station in Jerusalem. Lupolianski’s party was the largest in the 3 Israel Office_________________________ municipal council and with other the popularity of veteran political religious parties he enjoyed a parties in general. comfortable majority. At the same time it should In the 2008 elections Meir be remembered that the Jerusalem Porush replaced Lupolianski as the race was very different than those United-Torah-Judaism’s candidate. held in other cities. Thus, in both Porush seemed to deter many Tel Aviv and Haifa, the incumbent secular voters. Nir Barkat mayors (Ron Huldai in Tel Aviv and challenged the ultra orthodox Yonah Yahav in Haifa) won the candidate again. It was clear that race. Both of them, although one of these two would become officially leading ‘independent’ lists- mayor. The legal requirement is to of-candidates, are affiliated to the come first in the race with at least Labour party. Furthermore, the 40% of the valid votes. If no candidate who came second in Tel candidate overcomes this Aviv with an impressive support of threshold, a second round takes 34.3% was Dov Hanin, who is a place. Only two other candidates Knesset Member representing the participated in the 2008 race and it communist-led Hadash – a party seemed that the race would be which is rarely supported by Jewish decided in the first round. This time voters. Barkat finished first. He was supported by 52.4% of the valid votes compared to 43.4% that went Conclusions to Porush. Many believed that Barkat could win only if the turnout While political parties are is considerably high.

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