DOCSLIB.ORG

Download the Crso 2017

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Download the Crso 2017 CSCAP REGIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2017 REGIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2017 COUNCIL FOR SECURITY COOPERATION EDITOR Ron Huisken IN THE ASIA PACIFIC Adjunct Associate Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Established in 1993, the Council for Security Cooperation Australian National University in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) is the premier Track Two organization in the Asia Pacific region and counterpart to the Track One processes dealing with security issues, namely, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS) EDITORIAL ASSISTANT and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus Forum. It provides Elke Larsen an informal mechanism for scholars, officials and others Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs in their private capacities to discuss political and security The Australian National University issues and challenges facing the region. It provides policy recommendations to various intergovernmental bodies, convenes regional and international meetings and establishes linkages with institutions and organisations in other parts of EDITORIAL PANEL the world to exchange information, insights and experiences Ric Smith in the area of regional political-security cooperation. CSCAP Australia Anthony Milner CSCAP Australia Philips Vermonte CSCAP Indonesia Jusuf Wanandi CSCAP Indoensia Front cover image The Musudan missile, an intermediate range ballistic missile based on a Soviet-era design that North Korea has under development. Source: Reuters LETTER FROM THE CO-EDITORS On behalf of CSCAP, we are pleased Back cover image to present the CSCAP Regional Security Bamboo Bridge over a tributary of the Nam Song River near Outlook (CRSO) 2017. Inaugurated in Vang Vieng in northern Laos. 2007, this is the tenth annual CRSO Source: Jan Huisken volume. The CRSO brings expert analysis to bear on critical security issues facing the region and points to policy-relevant alternatives for Track One (official) and Track Two (non-official) to advance multilateral regional security cooperation. The views in the CRSO 2017 do not represent those of any Member committee CSCAP thanks the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, or other institution and are the responsibility The Australian National University, for their support with this of the individual authors and the Editor. publication. Charts and images in the CRSO 2017 do not necessarily reflect the views of the Designed and printed by CanPrint Communications, chapter authors. Canberra, Australia. ISBN: 978-0-9942248-3-5 Copyright © 2017 by CSCAP www.cscap.org 3 REGIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2017 CONTENTS 4 The Outlook for Security in the Asia Pacific: Adverse Trends Gaining Momentum Ron Huisken 7 Challenges to U.S. Leadership— Abroad and at Home—Portend Greater Uncertainty for the Asia-Pacific Bates Gill 10 East Asia 2016: A Year of Destabilization Yu Tienjun 13 The Defense Force of Japan Awakens to Address the Contemporary Security Environment Hideshi Tokuchi 16 Russia in Asia and in the World: Back to the Future as a Great Power Victor Sumsky 19 India in the Asia Pacific: Strengthening Asian Multipolarity Sanjay Pulipaka 22 Security in the Asia Pacific: A South Korean Perspective Jong Kun Choi 25 Defence Outlook: Australia Andrew Carr and Stephan Frühling 28 DPRK’s Nuclear Deterrent: The Magic Bullet for Peace and Security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia Choe Un Ju 31 DPRK Nuclear Developments and the ROK Response: Looking to 2017 Cho Namhoon 34 North Korea’s Nuclear Weapon Capabilities: The Emerging Escalation Ladder Hideya Kurata 37 Dealing with the DPRK: Exploring the Trump Administration’s Options Ralph A. Cossa 40 China’s “Island-Building” in the South China Sea: Implications for Regional Security Robert Beckman 43 The South China Sea Tribunal’s Award: New Prospects for Cooperation? Nguyen Thi Lan Anh 46 On Pivots and Puzzles in the South China Sea Jay L Batongbacal 48 Solving a Puzzle in the South China Sea Fu-Kuo Liu 51 The Future of Dispute Resolution and Management of the South China Sea: A Post Arbitration Analysis Haryo Budi Nugroho 3 CSCAP REGIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2017 The Outlook for Security in the Asia Pacific: Adverse Trends Gaining Momentum Ron Huisken It is a melancholy fact that, a decade hence, security analysts are likely to cite the current period as a recent example of realism at work. It is a source of melancholy because both principals – the United States of America and the Peoples Republic of China – believed themselves to be too wise and wily to stumble into a replay of the Sparta-Athens drama but now stand exposed as international actors capable of exactly that. The first eight papers below all confirm this in ASEAN summit 7 September 2016. Source: ASEAN.org. various ways. The United States saw what China with the full economic, political and In the broadest terms, the outlook for could become way back in the mid- psychological fallout of the Iraq war the Asia Pacific is for a prolonged 1990s but elected, as the unipolar and the GFC, it encountered a China period of geopolitical contestation state, to play it cool, welcoming that was more confident and more that will at best yield gradual change China into the club of major powers prepared to press for change. and probably feel like a hazardous and counselling it to find its niche in stalemate. This will occur against the a peaceful and stabilizing manner. A Geopolitical contention, so stoutly back-drop of a broader sensation that decade later, when China’s spectacular denied over a number of years, the constellation of circumstances that relative gains had become only too intensified markedly, and was at produced decades of comparative clear, Washington continued to feign last more openly acknowledged. order and stability, and managed a indifference but, as a precautionary Fortunately, any tilt in the balance of peaceful end to the Cold War, is now measure, began to discreetly hedge its power and influence in Asia is likely badly eroded and in need of significant bets, including through basing more to be neither quick nor decisive. repair and/or re-configuration. aircraft carriers, ballistic missile and Although the drift of the US-China Russia’s new prominence as a security hunter-killer submarines in the Pacific relationship toward difficulty and actor as well as the on-going stresses rather than the Atlantic. coolness inescapably heightens the that stem from Islamic extremism are risk of inadvertent incidents, neither For its part, China matched important in this regard. side has any interest in conflict. For Washington playing it cool, by one thing, the trade and investment Finally, the recent elections in the stressing relentlessly that it had studied relationship delivers enormous US have unexpectedly transformed the experience of past rising powers benefits to both sides. Secondly, the America into a major new source of with great care. China insisted that balance in military power remains uncertainty. President-elect Trump takes it had the wisdom and experience starkly favourable to the United States. an essentially commercial approach to avoid the destabilizing mistakes Thirdly, both powers are conscious toward the merits of alliances, is hostile other rising powers had made. The of their exceptionalism and will strive to freer trade and insists that the US associated narrative of peaceful to ensure that their future status is not must counter Chinese manipulation of development began to taper off stained indefinitely by perceptions of the value of its currency to distort trade rather conspicuously during the having succeeded through bullying, and investment flows to its advantage. second term of President George coercion and other practices unworthy The incoming administration will W. Bush. From around 2009, as the of truly great powers. almost certainly be less radical than Obama administration came to terms the campaign rhetoric would suggest. 4 5 CSCAP REGIONAL SECURITY OUTLOOK 2017 That said, we should anticipate that the has no more important business than of dialogue, cooperation and stability. United States will present a new mood to address what will or should be the and a new orientation that will in many shape of this new order and determine Korean Peninsula respects be broadly representative how to get there peacefully. The US of that rhetoric. Moreover, as the and China have had great difficulty The 1950-53 conflict on the Korean United States is still unambiguously addressing this challenging task peninsula both emphatically confirmed the largest economy in the world, has effectively. Indeed, as argued above, the state of Cold War between championed freer trade throughout it would appear that they have been East and West and proved to be an the post-war period and anchors a losing ground in recent years. There inexhaustible source of belligerence network of alliances still perceived to may be merit, therefore, in a small and tension. The Korean peninsula be an essential part of the fabric of coalition of other resident powers has long had the dubious distinction security, particularly in Europe and offering an independent view on the of being the most highly militarized Asia, even the serious possibility of desirable characteristics of a future real estate in the world. Moreover, the significant change in direction or regional order and on the modalities forces on and around the peninsula emphasis on these fundamental issues of both achieving these characteristics are kept in high states of military will have far-reaching consequences. and making them durable. This readiness and exercise sustained would be an exceedingly difficult – vigilance. The relentless hostility that The new mood and orientation and possibly politically hazardous has characterized relationships on the might, for example, be a more self- – undertaking. There could well be peninsula is difficult to comprehend, centred America that is less hung a role for Track two processes such especially after more than 60 years. up on being the recognized leader as CSCAP to help spark such an On several occasions over these of the international community and undertaking.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • ZRP BRIEF SEPT 2017.Indd
    Brief: 15/2017/FOLDER3 KDN No.: PP 12857/08/2013 (032657) Thank you for making us Employer of Choice 2017 A BRIEF CONTENTS NOTE... page 2 by Dato’ Zulkifl y Rafi que IN-BRIEF... Th e highlights in this Folder include: On managing millennials... • Advocates Ordinance Sabah amended • Court of Appeal ruling on ‘right’ to travel Many of us have discussed, debated and • Landmark ruling on Islamic family law deliberated upon the generation known as the • Pedra Branca dispute “Millennials”. Broadly speaking, Millennials • Sexual Off ences against Children Act 2017 are those born from 1982 to 1995, also • Tourism tax from 1 September known as Gen-Y (Generation Y), who grew • Germany: “NO” to accessing Facebook account up in the age of internet, smart phones • Th ailand: 10-year visa for retirees and social media, and who are identifi ed as • UK: New Lord Chief Justice appointed technologically adept. With the evolution of legal services, law page 4 fi rms are now populated by Millennials, all of whom with diff erent working styles and BRIEFING... ethics. Th us, it is important for law fi rms to Amongst the articles in our features: take certain measures in order to bridge that • KLRCA Arbitration Rules... An update generational gap and manage the working • Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance 2017 force in the best possible way. • Taking the LEAP! We, at ZUL RAFIQUE & partners, acknowledge that a law fi rm’s best asset is talent. We, therefore, strive to adapt to the page 10 requirements of the driving workforce by DEBRIEF... introducing various training programmes on soft skills and legal skills.
    [Show full text]
  • ASEAN Cooperation: the Legacy of the Economic Crisis Etel Solingen
    International Relations of the Asia-Pacific Volume 5 (2005) 1–29 doi:10.1093/irap/lci101 ASEANEtel Solingen cooperation: the legacy of the economic crisis ASEAN cooperation: the legacy of the economic crisis Etel Solingen University of California Irvine, 2927 Woodwardia Drive, Los Angeles, CA 90077, USA. Email: [email protected] Abstract This article examines the implications of domestic political changes in the post-1997 era for ASEAN’s regional cooperation and institutionalization. The conceptual framework traces regional relations to the makeup and grand strategies of domestic coalitions (internationalizing, hybrid, backlash). Had some predictions in the immediate aftermath of the crisis been fulfilled, the advent of domestic backlash coalitions would have portended lower levels of regional cooperation. Alternatively, in the absence of changes in the funda- mental nature of most ruling coalitions after the crisis, ASEAN’s cooperative thrust was expected to be maintained. The article explores the extent to which ASEAN’s activities in the post-crisis era supports either of these two propositions. It finds that a shock of major proportions in Southeast Asia led to some immediate challenges to bilateral relations. At the same time, the aftermath of the crisis led to considerable multilateral and bilateral co- operation on economic issues, expansion, intervention, and security. Furthermore, cooperation may have indeed improved despite subsequent crises, including 9/11 and its aftermath. Yet no linear progression or irrevoc- able process towards internationalization or regional cooperation can be assumed. Alternative coalitions, and their potential for changing regional trajectories, must be reckoned with. 1 Introduction Following a history of deadly conflicts and heightened tension, inter-state conflict in Southeast Asia (SEA) has declined significantly in recent decades.
    [Show full text]
  • The Emerging Architecture of International Dispute Resolution
    SPAIN.DOC 11/23/2010 3:49 PM INTEGRATION MATTERS: RETHINKING THE ARCHITECTURE OF INTERNATIONAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION ANNA SPAIN* ABSTRACT International law promotes global peace and security by providing mechanisms for the pacific settlement of international disputes. This Article examines these mechanisms and their place in the architecture of the international dispute resolution (“IDR”) system. The Article identifies three core deficiencies of the IDR system that limit its effectiveness and capacity. First, the international legal system has prioritized the development of adjudication over other forms of dispute resolution; the judicialization of international disputes and the proliferation of courts and tribunals evidence this. However, adjudication is limited in its capacity to resolve disputes that involve non-state parties and extra-legal issues. This is concerning because empirical studies show that international conflict is increasingly intra-state, and involves non-state actors and extra-legal issues. Second, states prefer mediation to adjudication as a method for resolving disputes that occur in the context of inter-state conflict. Yet the role and value of mediation have been underappreciated, and it lacks institutional support under international law. Third, the current architecture of the IDR system promotes single method approaches, which can foster fragmented IDR approaches that separate legal issues from extra-legal ones, despite their interconnected nature. It also fails to structurally incorporate emerging, hybrid IDR approaches that enhance IDR capacity. In * Associate Professor of Law, University of Colorado Law School. Appreciation and thanks to Adam Bradley, Vic Fleischer, Nienke Grossman, Sarah Krakoff, Clare Huntington, Scott Peppet, Kal Raustiala, Cesare Romano, and the participants at the 2010 Junior International Law Scholars Association Annual Conference and the University of Colorado Law School workshop for their helpful comments.
    [Show full text]
  • Apr–Jun 2019
    Vol. 15 Issue 01 APR–JUN 2019 04 / Reflections on War 06 / Evidence from the Archives 22 / When Food Was Scarce 34 / Retro Disco Scene 52 / Three Records from History The Archives Issue The National Archives Turns 50 p. 10 biblioasia VOLUME 15 APR April 2019 is a special month for the National Archives of Singapore (NAS). After an 18-month JUN makeover, the NAS building at Canning Rise re-opened on 7 April with a slew of upgraded ISSUE 01 2019 Directors’ CONTENTS facilities for the public. As the NAS’ year-long 50th anniversary celebrations that began in June 2018 draw to a conclusion, we will mark its close by hosting the SARBICA* International OPINION Note Symposium from 24–28 June 2019. This special edition of BiblioAsia puts the spotlight on all things archives. In his op-ed, Dr Shashi Jayakumar describes how recent initiatives undertaken by the NAS prepare the organisation – as well as Singapore – for the future. Eric Chin examines the role of the archives in providing evidence and the value this has for Singapore – from resolving the landmark Pedra Branca dispute to helping bring the past to life for today’s generation. Fiona Tan remembers some of the pioneers who started the archives in Singapore, Mark Looking Back, The Unresolved Past: Wong interviews an archives veteran to glean insights into her 45-year career, and Abigail 02 Looking Forward 04 Reflections on War Huang charts the timeline of the archives buildings over the years (we did say this issue is and Memory about the archives!). Cheong Suk-Wai stresses the importance of oral history records and tells us why the life of a humble tailor matters as much as that of the tycoon.
    [Show full text]
  • Integration Matters: Rethinking the Architecture of International Dispute Resolution
    University of Colorado Law School Colorado Law Scholarly Commons Articles Colorado Law Faculty Scholarship 2010 Integration Matters: Rethinking the Architecture of International Dispute Resolution Anna Spain University of Colorado Law School Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/articles Part of the Courts Commons, Dispute Resolution and Arbitration Commons, International Law Commons, and the Jurisprudence Commons Citation Information Anna Spain, Integration Matters: Rethinking the Architecture of International Dispute Resolution, 32 U. PA. J. INT'L L. 1 (2010), available at https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/articles/1243. Copyright Statement Copyright protected. Use of materials from this collection beyond the exceptions provided for in the Fair Use and Educational Use clauses of the U.S. Copyright Law may violate federal law. Permission to publish or reproduce is required. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Colorado Law Faculty Scholarship at Colorado Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Articles by an authorized administrator of Colorado Law Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Content downloaded/printed from HeinOnline Mon Nov 11 13:04:51 2019 Citations: Bluebook 20th ed. Anna Spain, Integration Matters: Rethinking the Architecture of International Dispute Resolution, 32 U. Pa. J. Int'l L. 1 (2010). ALWD 6th ed. Anna Spain, Integration Matters: Rethinking the Architecture of International Dispute Resolution, 32 U. Pa. J. Int'l L. 1 (2010). APA 6th ed. Spain, A. (2010). Integration matters: Rethinking the architecture of international dispute resolution. University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law, 32(1), 1-56.
    [Show full text]
  • An Analysis of the Underlying Factors That Affected Malaysia-Singapore Relations During the Mahathir Era: Discords and Continuity
    An Analysis of the Underlying Factors That Affected Malaysia-Singapore Relations During the Mahathir Era: Discords and Continuity Rusdi Omar Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Discipline of Politics and International Studies School of History and Politics Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences The University of Adelaide May 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE TABLE OF CONTENTS i ABSTRACT v DECLARATION vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vii ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS ix GLOSSARY xii 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Introductory Background 1 1.2. Statement of the Problem 3 1.3. Research Aims and Objectives 5 1.4. Scope and Limitation 6 1.5. Literature Review 7 1.6. Theoretical/ Conceptual Framework 17 1.7. Research Methodology 25 1.8. Significance of Study 26 1.9. Thesis Organization 27 2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF MALAYSIA-SINGAPORE RELATIONS 30 2.1. Introduction 30 2.2. The Historical Background of Malaysia 32 2.3. The Historical Background of Singapore 34 2.4. The Period of British Colonial Rule 38 i 2.4.1. Malayan Union 40 2.4.2. Federation of Malaya 43 2.4.3. Independence for Malaya 45 2.4.4. Autonomy for Singapore 48 2.5. Singapore’s Inclusion in the Malaysian Federation (1963-1965) 51 2.6. The Period after Singapore’s Separation from Malaysia 60 2.6.1. Tunku Abdul Rahman’s Era 63 2.6.2 Tun Abdul Razak’s Era 68 2.6.3. Tun Hussein Onn’s Era 76 2.7. Conclusion 81 3 CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IN MALAYSIA-SINGAPORE RELATIONS 83 3.1. Introduction to the Issues Affecting Relations Between Malaysia and Singapore 83 3.2.
    [Show full text]
  • Download (797Kb)
    SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE LIANCOURT ROCKS: A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF THE DISPUTE BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA CARMEL PROUDFOOT 31249801 Bachelor of Laws/Bachelor of Arts Murdoch University This thesis is presented for the Honours degree of Bachelor of Laws of Murdoch University (November 2014) Word Count: 19,285 DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY I, Carmel Proudfoot, declare that this thesis is my own work and has not been previously submitted for any award. All sources relied upon and used have been acknowledged. i COPYRIGHT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I acknowledge that a copy of this thesis will be held at the Murdoch University Library. I understand that, under the provisions of s51.2 of the Copyright Act 1968, all or part of this thesis may be copied without infringement of copyright where such reproduction is for the purposes of study and research. This statement does not signal any transfer of copyright away from the author. Signed: ………………………………… Full Name of Degree: Bachelor of Laws with Honours Thesis Title: Sovereignty over the Liancourt Rocks: A Comprehensive Overview of the Dispute between Japan and the Republic of Korea Author: Carmel Proudfoot Year: 2014 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my supervisor, Lorraine Finlay, for her encouragement, support and guidance, not only in the preparation of this thesis but throughout my university studies. I would also like to thank my family and friends for their support throughout this process. Special thanks to my parents, who have been there every step of the way. iii ABSTRACT The Liancourt Rocks dispute is one of a series of ongoing island disputes in East Asia.
    [Show full text]
  • THE SPRATLY ISLANDS DISPUTE: DECISION UNITS and DOMESTIC POLITICS CHRISTOPHER CHUNG a Thesis Submitted to the University Of
    THE SPRATLY ISLANDS DISPUTE: DECISION UNITS AND DOMESTIC POLITICS CHRISTOPHER CHUNG A thesis submitted to the University of New South Wales in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2004 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and that, to the best of my knowledge, it contains no material previously published or written by another person, nor material which to a substantial extent has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by colleagues, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, during my candidature, is fully acknowledged. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project’s design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged. Christopher Chung i ABSTRACT This thesis presents a cross-national, cross-regime examination of foreign policy decision-making in the Spratly Islands dispute, focusing on China, Malaysia and the Philippines. It argues that how and why these countries have acted in particular ways towards the dispute relates to the relationship among foreign policy decision-making, government behaviour and domestic politics. The theoretical foundation of the study is foreign policy analysis. It applies the decision units approach advanced by Margaret and Charles Hermann and Joe Hagan to investigate who made foreign policy decisions on the Spratly Islands dispute in the three countries during the period 1991-2002, and how this influenced government behaviour.
    [Show full text]
  • Index More Information
    Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-49526-5 - Towards a Rules-Based Community: An Asean Legal Service Jean-Claude Piris and Walter Woon Index More information INDEX AANZFTA (ASEAN–Australia– AHMM (ASEAN Ministers of New Zealand Free Trade Health), 37 Area), 66 AHRD (ASEAN Human Rights ACB (ASEAN Compliance Body), Declaration), 55, 112, 44 167 ACC (ASEAN Coordinating AIA (ASEAN Investment Area) and Council), 56–7, 88–92, 111, AIA Council, 26–8, 159 155, 175 AICHR (ASEAN ACMB (ASEAN Compliance Intergovernmental Monitoring Body), 79 Commission on Human ACT (ASEAN Consultation to Rights), 69, 167 Solve Trade and Investment AIPO (ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Issues), 44, 166 Organisation), 47 ADMM (ASEAN Defence ALAWMM (ASEAN Law Ministers’ Meeting), 39 Ministers’ Meeting), 37 AEC (ASEAN Economic ALMM (ASEAN Labour Ministers), Community), xxiii, xxvii, 44, 36 78, 108 AMAF (ASEAN Ministers of AECC (ASEAN Economic Agriculture and Forestry), Community Council), 52–7, 36 156 AMCA (ASEAN Ministers AEM (ASEAN Economic Ministers’ Responsible for Culture and Meeting), 19, 24–8, 80, 159 the Arts), 39 AFMM (ASEAN Finance Ministers’ AMM (ASEAN Ministerial Meeting), 38 Meeting), 16–40, 176 African Union, legal service AMME (ASEAN Ministerial observations from, 133, 135–6 Meeting on the AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Area) Environment), 37 and AFTA Council, 20, AMMin (ASEAN Ministerial 26–7, 31, 35, 82 Meeting on Minerals), 39 194 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-49526-5 - Towards a Rules-Based
    [Show full text]
  • Center for Risk Research Faculty of Economics Future Scenarios of The
    CRR DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES A Discussion Paper No. A-12 Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes Shee Poon Kim October 2014 Center for Risk Research Faculty of Economics SHIGA UNIVERSITY 1-1-1 BANBA, HIKONE, SHIGA 522-8522, JAPAN Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes By Shee Poon Kim* Executive Summary The focus of this paper is to analyze three future scenarios in the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These namely are: 1. ‘No War Scenario’: The paper argues that the probability of war in the foreseeable future between the US and China over the South China Sea is unlikely. There are no signs to suggest that the US is preparing for major armed clashes with the Chinese navy in the South China Sea as the US and China share more of a convergence of common rather than a divergence of interests. Low-level military confrontations and skirmishes are possible but war among the claimant states over the sovereignty disputes is unlikely. China has repeatedly stated that it will not use force to resolve the sovereignty and maritime border disputes in the South China Sea. 2. ‘Impasse Scenario’: As long as disputing states believe that sovereignty is exclusive, there will be no solution to the sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. The South China Sea maritime disputes are complex and there is no quick ‘fix’ for sovereignty disputes. 3. ‘Peace Scenario’: China and the other claimants can conclude a ‘South China Sea Peace Treaty’ with the inclusion of ‘No First use of Force’ to preclude violence and make the South China Sea a maritime region of peace, freedom and cooperation.
    [Show full text]
  • Salvage of Sunken Ships in the South China Sea: Legal Basis and Practical Approach
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Xiamen University Institutional Repository Salvage of Sunken Ships in the South China Sea: Legal Basis and Prac鄄 tical Approach 117 Salvage of Sunken Ships in the South China Sea : Legal Basis and Practical Approach *摇 ** LIU Xiaotang FU Tingzhong Abstract :In the South China Sea ( SCS) are buried a great number of shipw鄄 reck remains from ancient China as well as other countries, but no salvage operation has been undertaken of them by the Chinese authority so far. The salvage operation of sunken ships in the SCS is in essence an issue concerning State sovereignty. Pending settlement of sovereignty disputes, such salvage operations will inevitably meet with obstacles, but are still feasible in practice. Although only a basic framework has been established for salvage of sunken ships in the domestic legislations of China without detailed rules for salvage operations in the SCS, international multilateral and bilater鄄 al instruments have nonetheless offered a legal basis, on which a practical approach for sunken ship salvage in the SCS may be explored. Salvage of sunken ships in the SCS, if successfully implemented, will help coordinate China蒺s domestic law with in鄄 ternational law and support China蒺s claims in the SCS disputes. Key Words :South China Sea; Salvage of sunken ships; Legal basis; Practical approach 玉. Introduction The South China Sea ( SCS) and the adjacent sea areas, which used to be a prosperous center of ancient maritime civilization on the Chinese seas and where the Eastern maritime civilization met its Western counterpart since the late antiquity, *摇 LIU Xiaotang, School of Law, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
    [Show full text]
  • Manicom East China Sea-Final-02-03-2009-1
    Cooperation and Confrontation in the East China Sea Dispute: Lessons for China-Japan Relations By James Manicom B.A. (Honours) M.A. (International Relations) Thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Political and International Studies Faculty of Social Sciences Flinders University March 2009 Contents CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................... 1 LIST OF MAPS ...................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. 3 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................... 3 SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................ 4 DECLARATION ................................................................................................................................... 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .................................................................................................................... 6 ACRONYMS.......................................................................................................................................... 7 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]