Contagion J u n e 2 0 1 0 US Treasuries Investors are not sleeping well, weighed down by thoughts of Europe and the threat As of 31-May of contagion stalling the global economic recovery. The recent market volatility, Benchmark Yield reminiscent of 2008, is driven by European sovereign debt concerns combined with 3 Month 0.16% undercapitalized European banks. We reiterate our view that in the current 6 Month 0.22% environment prudent credit risk management should be the primary focus of 2 Yr 0.77% investors, which should include a thorough analysis of money market fund holdings. 5 Yr 2.09% The potential effect of deteriorating fundamentals in Europe on the already fragile U.S. economy leads us to push our target for an interest rate hike by the Federal 10 Yr 3.29% Reserve well into the first quarter of 2011 at the earliest. 30 Yr 4.21% Follow the Euro Merrill Lynch Indexes 30-Apr to 28-May Investors need look no further than the EUR/USD spot rate to see the extent of the Index Return problems in Europe. Since hitting a relative peak of $1.5134 on November 25, 1-3 Yr Gov/Corp ≥ A 0.27% 2009, the currency has declined 18.69 percent to $1.2306. In the month of May 1-3 Yr Municipals 0.34% alone, the Euro fell 7.43 percent. 1-3 Yr Agencies 0.31% 0-3 Month UST 0.01% Figure 1: EUR/USD Spot Rate S&P 500 -7.98% $1.55 $1.50 Contact Us $1.45 www.ClearwaterAdvisors.com $1.40
[email protected] $1.35 Source: British Bankers’ Association, Federal Reserve, FDIC, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Barclays, $1.30 Financial Times, JP Morgan $1.25 $1.20 Source: Bloomberg The decline in the Euro and widening credit spreads reflect (1) the stressed financial and changing political environment in Europe, (2) uncertainty surrounding the details and the effectiveness of the €750 billion rescue package of Eurozone countries, and (3) deteriorating sentiment and loss of confidence in the European banking sector.