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Morning Market Starter Morning Market Starter Treasury Research Group June 10, 2019 For private circulation only Treasury Research Group Key Developments: China trade balance improved in May The Mexican peso jumped the most in almost a year after U.S. President Donald Trump said late Friday that plans for a 5% tariff on Mexican goods had been “indefinitely suspended.” The US monthly labor market report for May came in much weaker than anticipated as the economy added only 75,000 jobs compared to expectations of 175,000. Readings for the previous two months were revised lower by 75,000. Average hourly earnings growth softened from 3.2% YoY in April-2019 to 3.1% in May-2019. Finance ministers and central bankers from the world’s 20 top economies pledged to take action against “intensifying” global trade and geopolitical tensions, according to a joint communique released yesterday. The RBI on Friday said lenders, including commercial and small finance banks as well as non- banking financial companies, have 210 days to review an account in default and implement a resolution plan, instead of the 180 days previously mandated. Missing the deadline requires additional provisioning, which is reversed once recovery plans are underway including when a case is admitted to the insolvency process. Central Bank Watch: The European Central Bank will take further steps to support the region’s economy if trade or Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Bank Research other risks threaten the economic outlook, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said. ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said that there’s less leeway for monetary policy to react to the current slowdown in the euro area economy. BOE chief economist Andy Haldane believes that the central bank is approaching the time when it will need to raise interest rates to keep inflation pressures in check. Global Market Developments: JN: The economy grew 2.2% annualized in Q1 2019, slightly above the preliminary reading of 2.1% due to stronger capital spending. CH: China’s exports unexpectedly returned to growth in May despite higher US tariffs, but imports fell in a further sign of weak domestic demand leaving the country with a trade surplus of USD 41.65 bn. Forex reserves rose USD 6 billion in May to USD 3.101 trillion. CA: The economy showed signs of strength in May as it added 27,700 jobs and unemployment rate fell to its lowest level 1976. US stock markets ended in green in the previous session. Both Dow Jones (1.0%) and S&P 500 (1.1%) finished the session higher. Asian stock markets are trading in green today. Hang Seng (2.0%), Nikkei (1.0%), Australia ASX (1.0%), Kospi (1.0%) and Shanghai Composite (0.7%) are trading higher. US Treasuries are trading lower today. The 10-year yield is at 2.12% compared to previous session’s close at 2.08. Domestic market developments: Indian Rupee is trading weaker today at 69.45 vs. previous close of 69.34. Indian Government bonds are trading lower today with 10Y yield at 7.01%. Morning Market Starter Remarks DXY The USD moved lower across the board against the DM currency block driven by a much weaker than expected payrolls print. A continued string of weaker US economic indicators has in turn forced the fed funds futures market to price in higher probability of rate cuts in 2019 that is working as the main catalyst weighing on the USD. Going forward, we would not rule out further weakness in the greenback. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair moved higher by ~0.5% in the overnight session to close at the 1.1331 level driven by the anti-USD trade in the global markets. However, news on the local economy remains bleak that was visible in the fall seen in the German industrial production release that fell by 1.8% in April-2019. We see only a modest upside potential in store in the near-term driven more by investor concerns about the US economy than by any evidence of an improvement in the macro-economic framework in the Euro-zone. GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair rose modestly by ~0.3% in the overnight session to close at the 1.2734 level primarily reflecting markets knee-jerk reaction to the US payrolls release. However, we think that there could be downside potential in the week ahead driven by weaker economic indicators and continued anxiety about ‘Brexit’. USD/JPY The fall in US yields that was driven by a disappointing payrolls release pushed the USD/JPY lower by ~0.2% in the overnight session as it closed at the 108.18 level. We see a continued downside possibility in the pair. Japanese eco-watchers survey is due for release that might provide insights into the state of the local economy. However, the survey is unlikely to influence trading. USD/CNY At 6.9340, Yuan is trading 0.4% weaker against USD. The currency weakened as PBOC governor Yi Gang’s statement that no particular level for the Yuan is more important caught investors’ attention in today’s trading session. US Treasury Steve Mnuchin said that non-intervention by China in currency markets means that they want to signal the willingness for a weaker Yuan among the investor community. Higher than expected forex reseves in May end also shows that intervention from authorities was fairly limited last month. Trade data came in mixed as exports rose but imports contracted 8.5%. The higher export figure could have been due to frontloading of shipments to the US in anticipation of tariffs on USD 325 bn goods. PBOC fixed the Yuan reference rate at 6.8925, against Friday’s fixing of 6.8945. AUD/USD The Australian Dollar is trading lower at 0.6974 levels in the morning session. The mixed trade data from China is weighing on the AUD/USD pair. Since, markets are closed in Australia due to Queen’s Birthday; Aussie will be driven by the global developments today. USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair fell sharply by ~0.7% to close at the 1.3265 level responding to opposing forces of a weaker surprise in the US labour market report but an upside surprise in the Canadian labour market data. The Canadian unemployment rate moved sharply lower from 5.7% in April to 5.4% showing resilience to softer global growth. However, the prospect of some softness in the housing sector reflected in housing starts and building permits that are due today is expected to restrict further downside possibility. Indian Equities Domestic benchmark indices opened higher today, tracking gains from Asian peers amid recededing trade war concerns between the US and Mexico. All the sectoral indices are trading in the green led by PSU bank, infra, IT, FMCG, auto, metal and pharma. Concerns over drying liquidity in the domestic non-bank finance space and its effect on other sectors of the economy may weigh on the indices. Indian Rupee The Indian Rupee strengthened higher today against the US dollar because of expectations that in the wake of forecast of multiple rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year, foreign funds may now turn to emerging market assets. Investors would be eyeing inflation and IIP number for further cues, due to release this week. India G-Sec Government bonds opened lower today because a sharp rise in crude oil prices prompted market players to trim their holdings in early trade. Some market participants may continue to book profits after the recent surge in prices. However, the losses are expected to be limited as market players would refrain from placing large bets before the release of May CPI data, due on Wednesday. Oil (Brent) Oil is trading 0.4% higher. Prices rose as a US-Mexico deal provided some support to oil from demand perspective. However, lack of progress on US-China (USD/bbl) trade front has capped further upside. Meanwhile, comments from Saudi energy minister are also supporting prices. He said that OPEC and Russia are likely to prolong production cuts. Brent and WTI are trading at at USD 63.5/barrel and USD 54.3/barrel respectively. Gold (USD/oz) Gold is trading 0.9% lower in the session. Prices retreated from a 14- month peak hit in the previous session as safe haven demand for gold took a hit after US & Mexico agreed to a deal which averted tariffs on Mexican imports to the US. Still, bets on rate cuts by Fed have kept a floor under gold prices. Gold is trading at USD 1328.4/oz. 2 Morning Market Starter ICICI Bank: ICICI Bank Towers, Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai- 400 051. Phone: (+91-22) 2653-1414 Treasury Research Group Economics Research Kamalika Das Economist (+91-22) 4008-1414 (ext 6280) [email protected] Shivom Chakravarti Economist (+91-22) 4008-1414 (ext 6273) [email protected] Anushri Bansal Economist (+91-22) 4008-1414 (ext 6220) [email protected] Sumedha Dasgupta Economist (+91-22) 2653-1414 (ext. 7243) [email protected] Ashray Ohri Economist (+91-22) 2653-1414 (ext. 7249) [email protected] Pradeep Kumar Economist (+91-22) 2653-1414 (ext. 6272) [email protected] Yash Panjrath Economist (+91-22) 2653-1414 (ext. 8161) [email protected] Priyanka Jeph Economist (+91-22) 2653-1414 (ext. 6520) [email protected] Treasury Desks Treasury Sales (+91-22) 6188-5000 Currency Desk (+91-22) 2652-3228-33 Gsec Desk (+91-22) 2653-1001-05 FX Derivatives (+91-22) 2653-8941/43 Interest Rate Derivatives (+91-22) 2653-1011-15 Commodities Desk (+91-22) 2653-1037-42 Corporate Bond (+91-22) 2653-7242 3 Morning Market Starter Disclaimer Any information in this email should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy or sell any financial products or services offered by ICICI Bank, unless specifically stated so.
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