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Global Warming Impacts on Japan -Latest Scientific Findings Ministry of the Environment, Japan Global Environment Research Fund Strategic R&D Area Project S‐4 Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts to Determine the Dangerous Level of Global Warming and Appropriate Stabilization Target of Atmospheric GHG Concentration Global Warming Impacts on Japan - Latest Scientific Findings - May 2008 Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts Ibaraki University, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, National Institute for Rural Engineering, The University of Tokyo, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, University of Tsukuba, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Agro‐Environmental Sciences, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Kyushu University, Meijo University, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. Introduction This report is a compilation of the research results for the first three years (fiscal 2005‐2007) of the Global Environment Research Fund Strategic R&D Area Project entitled “S‐4 Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts to Determine the Dangerous Level of Global Warming and Appropriate Stabilization Target of Atmospheric GHG Concentration” (abbreviated title: “Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts”) being implemented by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. This ongoing research project, initiated in 2005, has a total term of five years comprising the first period of three years followed by the second, two‐year period. Widespread impacts of climate change are appearing in the world, as described in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2007. Discussions on medium‐ to long‐term measures to deal with these impacts have now become a focus of global attention, including at the G‐8 Summit in Toyako, Hokkaido, in July 2008. For the planning of such measures, future impact projections and a clear determination of the dangerous level of global warming based on these projections are indispensable. By combining impact studies by field and synthesizing these studies using an integrated model, the objective of this report is to provide information essential for discussions on climate policies currently in progress; that is, the projection of climate change impacts on Japan and scientific findings concerning the dangerous level of global warming. In the first part of the research term up to fiscal 2007, targeting the period up to the end of the present century while focusing on the period up to around 2050, we have made projections of climate change impacts on Japan as well as economic assessments in key fields such as water resources, forests, agriculture, coastal zones, and human health. We have also developed an integrated assessment model in order to comprehensively analyze and assess the impacts and risks, and conducted quantitative studies to elucidate the levels and regional distributions of impacts occurring in Japan as well as their rate of appearance in Japan. The results of these studies reveal that although the level of impact and rate of increase vary according to the field, severe impacts will also appear in Japan even with a relatively low temperature increase and that while impacts will vary by region, there are especially vulnerable regions for each field. These results provide the latest comprehensive findings concerning the dangerous level of global warming not only for Japan but globally as well. It is our hope that these results will be utilized on a broad scale for studies on both mitigation measures and adaptation measures, as well as for promoting widespread understanding of global warming. In the next two‐year period, we will make efforts to provide even more useful findings by further improving the projection of impacts on Japan and conducting impact projections for the Asia‐Pacific regions. On behalf of the Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts Nobuo MIMURA S‐4 Research Project Leader (Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS), Ibaraki University) May 29, 2008 Contents Contents 3.3 Future Projection of Agricultural Impacts ･･･ 38 (1) Rice yield in Japan ････････････････ 38 Introduction (2) Outlook of impact of climate change Contents ･････････････････････････････････････ 3 by world food model 43 ･････････････････ Main Research Results ･･･････････････････････････ 4 4. Impacts on Coastal Zones 47 Objectives of This Report ･････････････････････････ 6 4.1 Outline ･･･････････････････････････ 47 Outline of This Report ･･･････････････････････････ 6 4.2 Object and Methods of Impact Assessment ･･ 49 Climate Change Impact Studies in the World ･････････ 9 (1) Storm‐surge flooding ･･････････････ 49 (2) River levee ････････････････････ 49 Ⅰ. Climate Change Impacts by Field (3) Economic value of sands ･････････････ 49 (4) Economic value of tidal flats ････････ 49 (5) Variation of liquefaction risk ･････････ 50 1. Impacts on Water Resources ･････････････････ 11 (6) Risk of slope disaster ･･･････････････ 50 1.1 Outline ･･･････････････････････････････ 11 4.3 Estimation of Future Effects on Coastal Zone ･･ 51 1.2 Targets and Methods of Impact Assessment ･･･ 11 (1) Estimation of future storm surge (1) Floods ････････････････････････ 11 flooding damage 51 (2) Slope disasters ･･････････････････ 12 (2) Future estimate of vulnerability of river levee 54 (3) Sedimentation ････････････････ 12 (3) Economic value of sand beaches ･････ 56 (4) Snow water resources ･･･････････ 12 (4) Economic value of tidal flats ････････ 58 (5) Water supply and demand ････････ 13 (5) Variation of liquefaction risk ････････ 59 1.3 Future Projection of Water Resources Impacts ･･ 14 (6) Risk of slope disaster ･･･････････････ 61 (1) Future projection of floods ･･･････ 14 5. Impacts on Human Health ･･･････････････ 63 (2) Future projection of slope disaster ････ 15 5.1 Outline ･･･････････････････････････ 63 (3) Future projection of sediment disasters ･･ 16 5.2 Targets and Methods of Impact Assessment ･･ 63 (4) Future projection of snow water resources ･ 17 (1) Heat stress mortality risk･･･････････ 63 (5) Future projection of (2) Heatstroke･･････････････････････ 63 water supply and demand ･･････ 19 (3) Atmospheric pollution risk ･････････ 64 2. Impacts on Forests ･･･････････････････ 20 (4) Dengue, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis ･ 64 2.1 Outline ･･････････････････････････････ 20 5.3 Future Projection of Health Impacts ･････ 65 2.2 Objectives and Methods of Impact Assessment･･ 20 (1) Mortality risk due to heat stress･･･ 65 (1) Fagus crenata (Siebold’s beech) forests ･･･ 20 (2) Future projection of heatstroke ･････ 66 (2) Pine wilt ･･････････････････････ 21 (3) Atmospheric pollution risks ････････ 67 (3) Sasa kurilensis (Chishima dwarf bamboo) ･･ 21 (4) Future projection of dengue and malaria･ 70 (4) Mountain bogs ････････････････････ 21 6. Comprehensive Assessment of Impacts by Field ･･ 78 (5) Pinus pumila (subalpine stone pine) ･･･ 22 (6) Abies veitchii (Veitch’s silver fir) ････ 22 Ⅱ. Adaptation Measures and Future Tasks 2.3 Future Projection of Impacts on Natural Forests･･ 22 (1) F. crenata forests ･････････････････ 22 1. Impacts on Water Resources ･･････････････ 81 (2) Pine wilt ･････････････････････ 28 2. Impacts on Forests ････････････････････ 82 (3) S. kurilensis ･･･････････････････ 29 3. Impacts on Agriculture ･･･････････････････ 82 (4) Mountain bogs ････････････････････ 30 4. Impacts on Coastal Zones ･････････････････ 83 (5) P. pumila ･･････････････････････ 31 5. Impacts on Human Health ････････････････ 85 (6) A. veitchii ･･････････････････････ 32 3. Impacts on Agriculture ･････････････････････ 34 Reference Material ････････････････････････ 87 3.1 Outline ･･･････････････････････････････ 34 References ･･･････････････････････････････ 90 3.2 Targets and Methods of Impact Assessment ･･ 34 Members and Contacts ･･･････････････････････ 93 (1) Rice production in Japan･････････････ 34 (2) Outlook of impacts of global warming by world food model 36 3 Main Research Results Main Research Results 1. While impact levels and rates of increase will vary by region, there are especially vulnerable regions for each field. A number of risk maps have been presented showing the regional distribution of climate change impacts on five fields: water resources, forests, agriculture, coastal zones, and human health. In these fields, a wide range of impacts will appear such as increases in flood and landslide disasters, northward migration and decline of forests, impacts on rice production, increases in storm surge disasters as well as the risk of liquefaction in coastal zones, increases in the number of heatstroke cases, and increases in the potential risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, while there are regional differences, some of the impacts will be extremely severe when the country is examined as a whole. 2. Although the level of impact and rate of increase vary according to the field, Japan will also experience significant impacts even with a relatively low temperature rise. Climate change impact functions elucidating the relationships between the temperature rise and the concurrent levels of impact have been developed and utilized for the comprehensive study of how the impacts on Japan will intensify under a climate scenario in which global warming progresses up to 2100. The results show that even with a relatively low temperature rise, severe impacts will also appear in Japan. 3. In view of the fact that the
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