International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 10, Issue 01, January 2019, pp. 29562977, Article ID: IJCIET_10_01_258 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijmet/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=10&IType=1 ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316
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URBAN FLOOD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., INDIA
Dr. Rajshree Kamat Senior Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture and Planning, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India
ABSTRACT Bhopal, the city of lakes is one of the very beautiful and peaceful cities of India with least vulnerability to natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, landslides etc. In recent years residents of this city find themselves vulnerable to urban floods. Earlier the rainy season in Bhopal used to be so pleasant that people used to take long trips in the nearby areas by road just to enjoy the rains. Nowadays everyone wants to stay at home to stay safe during rains to avoidor to combat problems. The floods are due to natural factors such as heavy rainfall, high floods etc. Blocking of channels or aggravation of drainage channels, improper land use, deforestation in headwater regions, etc., are human factors. The focus of this study is mainly upon the urban flooding scenarios. The paper is based on studying the physical and socio- economic indicators causing urban floods and their impacts on the city of Bhopal. Bhopal has been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains of sudden increase and decrease in population. City being a highly urbanized Municipal area, has given many challenges to be tackled through planning interventions. Urban floods are one of those challenges. Bhopal city has no significant history of urban floods. But from last one decade the city has been facing many situations of urban flooding during the monsoon season. The un-even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization, encroachment and filling of natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the high-value urban land for buildings are the causes of urban flooding. Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. Variety of indicators can be introduced to assess vulnerability therefore selection of more appropriate methodology is vital for authorities. The more accepted assessing method could be used to assess and identify the most vulnerable areas. This paper also includes a suitable framework to assess problematic flood vulnerability in urban areas. Key words: Urban floods, Climate change, Flood vulnerability assessment; Flood control measures; Urban planning and development. Cite this Article: Dr. Rajshree Kamat, Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Bhopal, M.P., India, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology 10(1), 2019, pp. 29562977. http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJCIET?Volume=10&Issue=1
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1. INTRODUCTION Flooding in general and urban flooding in particular is not an unknown event in world and in India. The un- even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization, encroaching upon and filling up natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the high-value urban land for buildings are the cause of urban flooding. Unregulated development in urban area makes the people in developing countries to occupy the hazardous area, thus, making them vulnerable to disasters (Kamat R. 2013) Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. One of the most significant aims of flood vulnerability assessment is to make a clear association between the theoretical conceptions of flood vulnerability and the daily administrative process (Hajar Nasiri, 2016). -most populous nation, may surge 10-fold by 2030 as cities expand and climate challenges worsen, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). A new online global flood-analyzing tool developed by WRI and four Dutch research agencies showed India topped the list among countries with population affected by river flooding on average each year (Chaudhary A. 2015). WRI ranked 163 countries by number of people impacted by river flooding. Led by India, the 15 worst-hit accounted for almost 80% of the total population affected. Bangladesh was a distant second, then China, followed by Vietnam, Pakistan and Indonesia, the tool showed. Annual economic losses from natural disasters have almost quadrupled in the past three decades, the World Bank said in 2013. In particular, southeast Asia faces a notable increase in risk, according to Hessel Winsemius, a researcher at Netherlands-based Deltares, one of the project partners. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer estimates current and future potential exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state, country and major river basin in the world. not a good estimation of what flood risks could be in the (Chaudhary A. 2015). Climate change has played an important role in causing large-scale floods across central India, including the Mumbai floods of 2006 and 2017. During 1901-2015, there has been a three-fold rise in widespread extreme rainfall events, across central and northern India Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam and parts of Western Ghats Goa, north Karnataka and South Kerala (Roxy, M. K et al., 2017) .The rising number of extreme rain events are attributed to an increase in the fluctuations of the monsoon westerly winds, due to increased warming in the Arabian Sea. This results in occasional surges of moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the subcontinent, resulting in heavy rains lasting for 23 days, and spread over a region large enough to cause floods. (Roxy, M. K et al., 2017) (Simpkins, Graham, 2017).
2. FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS OF MADHYA PRADESH As per the State Disaster Management Authority of Madhya Pradesh, With respect to floods, Madhya Pradesh State of India has been divided in to ten river basins. These river basins are Mahi, Chambal, Kuwari Sindh, Betwa, Dhasan & Ken, Tons, Son, Waniganga, Tapti and Narmada as can be seen in Fig. 1 & Fig. 2.
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Figure 1 River Basins of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018)
Figure 2 River Basins of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018) In last 25 years, 36 flood affected districts of Madhya Pradesh have faced floods for 6 to 11 years, as can be seen in Fig. 3.
Figure 3 Flood affected districts of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018)
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This data as well as experience of last 40-50 years or more shows least vulnerability of South of Bhopal district towards natural floods because of the rivers. Analysis has been made using the historical IMD gridded daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall data from 1951-2013 (63 years) for the districts of Madhya Pradesh (UNDP, 2017). The amount of rainfall received has been slightly decreasing over Madhya Pradesh whereas this rainfall has been received in fewer days over the period. Both of these trends have huge implications in terms of more severe floods, failure of rain-fed crops, lesser groundwater recharge, enhanced soil erosion, etc. (UNDP, 2017). Projected Climate - RCP4.5 (low), RCP8.5 (high) (near term: 2021-2050; long term: 2071-2100). Projected extreme events: Heavy rainfall, heat waves, floods and drought are likely to increase in future and will become increasingly important and will play a more significant role in disaster management (UNDP, 2017).
3. ABOUT THE STUDY AREA: BHOPAL Bhopal is located in the central part of India, witnessing rapid urban development and industrialization. Bhopal's 2018 population is now estimated at 2,254,000. In 1950, the population of Bhopal was 100,000. Bhopal has grown by 152,000 since 2015, which represents a 2.35% annual change. These population estimates and projections come from the latest revision of the UN World Urbanization Prospects. These estimates represent the urban agglomeration of Bhopal, which typically includes Bhopal's population in addition to adjacent suburban areas. City of Bhopal lies in the southern part of the district, and the majority of the population resides within Bhopal municipality. Bhopal has been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains of sudden increase and decrease in population. After independence, the rehabilitation of migrant population and establishment of BHEL added to the sharp increase in the population during the post independence era. Fast urbanization in Bhopal during last four decades is resulting in increase in paved area and decrease in the agricultural land, which used to act as a percolation zone which is continuously depleting. Further, poor planning, urban sprawl, encroachments and illegal construction, poorly designed and maintained storm water drains and inadequate solid waste management resulting into choking and blockages in the drains. Unplanned urbanization and poor management are therefore the main factors behind flooding in urban areas. As per the National Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA) guideline, the imperviousness and concretization in urban areas increases the flood peaks to 1.8 to 8 times and flood volumes up to 6 times. Mostly the slums and squatter dwellers and lower income groups are more vulnerable to urban floods as they tends to live in informal settlements with limited or no provision for housing due to regional disparities. Figure 4 and Figure 5 shows Newspaper clippings of 18th July 2018of urban flood in Bhopal and some water logged areas because of 4.5 inches of rains in 5 hours.
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Figure 4 Newspaper clippings of 18th July 2018of urban flood in Bhopal
Figure 5 Hamidia Road Water logged and Mahamai Ka Bagh Area : The Drainage System is Overflowed The problems due to vulnerability of rapidly growing cities to urban flooding increases with the imperviousness the pace with which urban areas grows increases the imperviousness that results in decreasing infiltration and percolation rate of water into the ground. the unplanned urbanisation experienced by the urban areas and the inadequate storm water drains within the city to carry run-off water and solid waste management is aggreviated by the lack of coordination and integration among institutions responsible for managing city. Urban flooding has now become a challenge to urban planners and policy makers for making cities more resilient to urban floods. This emerging issue of urban flooding must be addressed
http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJCIET 2960 [email protected] Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Bhopal, M.P., India through various planning strategies to guide the urban development and make cities more resilient against urban flooding. Therefore there is need of the study to understand the factors and to quantify the vulnerability of urban areas due to unplanned and unrealised development. A detailed literature review was carried out to comprehend the critical issues regarding urban flooding and for identifying factors responsible for it. Literature review also guided in understanding the substantial findings through theoretical and methodological contributions to a particular topic. It was observed after reviewing different case examples from different context that there are metrological, hydrological and human induced factors which are responsible for the huge devastations in urban areas during rainy seasons. Strategies from various best practices were also reviewed to understand the mitigation measures which are adopted by different cases. Bhopal city has been selected to conduct the study on the basis of urbanisation in terms of built up and population in 2 decades; and the past three events of severe inundation of the city in last decade. First being very recent on 17th July 2018, 4.5 inches of rains in 5 hours, second Bhopal gets 297.4 mm in 24 hrs by 5.30 pm on, July 9, 2016, breaking the record earlier one was 275.7mm on July 22, 1973. (SANDRP, 2016) in the year 2006 Bhopal received 29cms of rain in a span of 5 hours in the month of August. Water filled to as high as three to four feet in about 15 low lying areas of Bhopal. First stage of the assessment shows that the 2006 event was the extreme event of heavy rainfall in which city had received 54 percent of excess rainfall. The physical infrastructure of the city fails to cope up the additional rate of runoff from paved surfaces and results in the affectation of 17 percent partially or completely damaged during the event. Govindpura area was identified as the most affected area within the city. Next event was recently happened in July August 2016 in which city had received 17 percent of excess rainfall and the destructions were as similar as 2006. Total 40 thousand people got affected and 5 6 people lost their lives as per the news reports and around 8519 houses are affected during the event. Old Bhopal and Govindpura area was identified as the most affected areas in the 2016 event. Recently in July and August 2018 Torrential rains battered Bhopal on claiming many lives overnight. Life in Bhopal was thrown completely out of gear with houses in old as well as parts of the city flooded.
3.1. Reasons for urban flooding Disasters can result in failed development, but failures in development planning can also lead to disaster risk. (Kamat R. , 2015) Despite spending a huge amount on urban infrastructure and planning over the years, the question emerges why Bhopal still remains susceptible to waterlogging within a few hours of heavy showers. If the damage is assessed before the occurrence of a disaster, measures can be taken beforehand to minimise the damages (Kamat R. 2009). The following are the reasons identified for urban flood in the city: City’s Geographical Character Bhopal slopes towards north and southeast. Hillocks of different altitudes are situated along the southwest and northwest parts of the urban area. Forming a continuous belt from the Singarcholi up to the Vindhyachal, 625 metres. Dense Urban Growth in the City Putting more burdens on the low- lying area. Due to slopes in Bhopal, rainwater water flows fast towards low-lying areas, creating waterlogging and flooding.
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Population density has been increases from 665 to 855 people per sq. km. Unauthorized development in the peripheral areas.
Source: Bhopal Development Plan, 2005
Figure 6 Growth of the city and direction of growth sprawl period area Inadequate sewerage and Storm water drainage Nearly two-thirds of city does not have a proper sewerage system, especially in the peripheral areas. sed drains reach only 28-30 percent of its population. The sewerage system in New Bhopal (the state capital) area is almost 40 years old. The system operates through a 108-km sewer line There is no storm water drain network for the entire city. The BMC has drawn up a 2,200 crore detailed project report for setting up a sewerage network and a 1,200 crore for setting up a storm water drain network. But both the mega- projects are yet to get operational on ground Water logging The existing drainage system is stifled by encroachments, which create bottlenecks in nallahs, leading to waterlogging and flooding every year. Absence of integrated sewerage or storm water drainage network in the city. Source: Based on data received from Bhopal Municipal Corporation, 2005-06 Development alters natural systems as vegetation and open spaces are replaced with new areas of impervious surfaces such as roads, parking lots, roofs, and turf, which greatly reduce infiltration and thus ground water recharge. Uncontrolled storm water runoff develops into Floods. (Sheetal Sharma, 2013)
4. AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY Before we discuss the Aim and Objectives of this paper, few research questions have been prepared to reach till the objectives of our study: What are the factors influencing the flood risk in the study area, including Land use/Land cover type? How those factors can become a set of indicators, which can be used as a tool for flood risk analysis so that we can assess the most vulnerable zone of the city? Which conceptual framework can be used to capture, analyse and assess the flood risk in growing urban areas of the city? What physical and socio- economic measures could be taken to decrease the flood risk in the most vulnerable area?
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4.1. Aim Aim being Urban flood vulnerability assessment of Bhopal. Objectives To study the Socio- economic and environmental parameters of the city along with factors influencing the urban flood risk. To prepare a set of Vulnerability indicators from the identified factors. To assess the identified vulnerability indicators through a suitable framework in the city. To give physical proposals and planning provisions for the most vulnerable area.
4.2. Methodology The study was conducted in five stages (Kamat R. 2017), (i) Topic Selection, and also the theme of the journal given, (ii) Literature Review was further divided in two parts where, the first one was Base line literature review (the need of the study and the problems were identified) and another was Detailed literature review (understanding vulnerability concept and the types of assessment methods). (iii) Indicator development and evaluation of indicators based on expert survey, (iv) Suitability of indicators and finding the most vulnerable zone and (v) Suggestive measures & Recommendations. A methodology that uses indicators derived from geo-data and census data to analyze the vulnerability to floods in a dense urban setting. A research framework will be developed to assess and to identify problematic areas, for example, areas with a high number of people exposed or areas with unfavorable usage. The study will show that variables referring to the physical exposure of the affected population are ranked as much more important for the present case than social characteristics, such as age and gender, which again underlines the suitability of the selected method.
5. LITERATURE REVIEW
5.1. Vulnerability concept Study aims to develop a framework for flood vulnerability assessment using a set of indicators to identify the most vulnerable area within the city. (Vulnerability= Exposure+ Sensitivity- Resilience) Vulnerability covers variety characteristics of risk such as social, environmental physical and economic. VulnerabVulnerabilities must always be assessed in relation to a specified threat (or hazard): which groups of people are vulnerable to what and why.” (IFRC, 1996)
Table 1 An overview of concept of Vulnerability Source Definition United nations Vulnerability is a degree of damage to a certain objects at flood risk with specified amount and present in a scale from 0 to 1 (no damage to (1982) full damage) cal and economic behaviors Cannon (1994) in the face of risks provide different degrees of vulnerability Menoni and Vulnerability term is damage goods, people, buildings, infrastructures and activities in hazard condition Pergalani (1996) The vulnerability of people and things to losses attribute to a certain Alexander (2002) amount of danger and probability that it will visible in a special condition and with a certain degree Vulnerability is a condition which is influenced by physical, social, UNDP (2004) economic and environmental factors that raises the susceptibility of
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Source Definition people to the hazard impact
The characteristics of an individual or group of people and their Wisner (2004) condition that affect their ability to predict, tackling, struggle, and recover from the effects of environmental threats Susceptibility to harm from exposure to pressures related with Adger (2006) environmental and social changes, and in lack of adaptation ability A function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, generated by Næss (2006) multiple factors and processes Balica and Wright Vulnerability is defined with interaction between Exposure, susceptibility and resilience of each community in risk condition (2010) Borden et al. Distinct vulnerability means potential or sensitivity to losses or harm. Social vulnerability contains the susceptibility of society or social (2007) groups to potential losses from hazards Source: (Hajar Nasiri, 2016)
5.2. Urban floods In urban regions there are multiple types of floods that can occur: costal flooding, riverine flooding, flash floods, urban floods, and drainage system floods. Urban flooding is a growing environmental concern in cities. Accordingly, urbanization has a significant influence on flood behavioral changes in urban areas. The scenario study is the basic ingredient for development of disaster management plan for vulnerable area (Kamat R. , 2007) Consequences of Urban Flooding Urban Floods results in stagnation of water on roads, railway tracks and in few cases even at airports because of the inadequate storm water drainage capacity. This results in traffic jams and traffic diversions resulting in loss of man-hours. Communication few cases even at airports because of the inadequate storm water drainage capacity. Economical As communications is disrupted industrial production gets hampered. Prices of essential commodities shoot up. Social There is a psychological stress as safe returns of family members are not sure. Schools and colleges get closed. Displacement of population in low-lying areas and collapsed structures generally meet stiff resistance. Environmental Water bodies get polluted. Waste disposal gets hampered due to traffic disruption. Health dustbins result in epidemics. (ENVIS, 2015)
5.3. Urban flood vulnerability factors All societies are vulnerable to floods, under different cases and situations, which make them somewhat unique; understanding the distinctions amongst them, may help to plan ahead and provide policy ideas to improve the quality of people living in them. Vulnerability assessment is done on the basis of this equation: (Vulnerability= Exposure+ Suscep bility- Resilience)
Source: (UNESCO-IHE) Exposure is defined as the predisposition of a system to be disrupted by a flooding event due to its location in the same area of influence. (UNESCO-IHE)
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Susceptibility is defined as the elements exposed within the system, which influence the probabilities of being harmed at times of hazardous floods. (UNESCO-IHE) The capacity of a system to endure any perturbation, like floods, maintaining significant levels of efficiency in its social, economical, environmental and physical components. (UNESCO- IHE)
Figure 7 Flood vulnerability Factors
5.4. Vulnerability assessment methods Before steps can be taken to reduce risk and vulnerability, they must first be understood (Kamat R. 2017). Vulnerability assessments and risk analyses allow for the identification of areas of critical concern and help to guide mitigation efforts. There are a variety of vulnerability assessment methods, which are different in their vulnerability description, theoretical framework, variables and methodology (Hajar Nasiri, 2016). According to earlier works vulnerability assessment methods can be categorized in four distinct groups, which are given below:
Table 2 Vulnerability assessment methods Vulnerability Vulnerability Disaster Method Model index system index system loss data -Commonly real damage used in flood investigation validity in vulnerability data studies precise Charact- Simple shortage -Pertain to a lot of eristics Imprecise condition complex indices time and and weighting of resource for public their subjective
other areas
Source: (Nasiri, 2013) This research will be based on the vulnerability Index System. The rationale behind selecting this method is explained in the next section.
5.5. Flood vulnerability assessment through indicators Vulnerability indicator method, which adapted to use available data for providing a logical Image of the place vulnerability. This method is widely used in flood vulnerability studies and preferred by policy makers for its clarified vulnerability image over space, a depiction which aims to priorities measures and plan for the risk response in specified region. (Nasiri, 2013)
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This group of methods depends on complicated indices with and without weighting; however, these methods also faced with considerable complexities related with standardization, weighting and aggregation methods. Uncertainty is one more struggle with this method. Since each additive layer includes a diverse variable, struggle about variable Interdependencies must be fixed. The best pro- posed solution for this concern is weighting variables to reduce their impact in forming a final expression (Lein 2010). Indicator based method does not measure flood risk directly, but contribute to evaluating flood risk. (Nasiri, 2013)
5.6. Data collection and analysis Research process includes processing of data to make inference. Analysis at different stages includes primary as well as secondary data. All the information is segregated into two components on the basis of physical and social parameters. Primary data was collected through survey process (Kamat R. 2017). Expert interviews and site visits were the source of primary data. Data collection would be done ward wise because of the availability of data and the analysis would be done zone wise because of the scale of urban floods. (Figure 4) Urban floods leave the impact on large scale and are the consequence of nearby areas.
Figure 8 Map showing Zone and Ward wise Division of city Bhopal Since, the focus of this study to develop the framework for urban flood vulnerability assessment to identify the most vulnerable area. Data collection and analysis would be divided into two key tasks. First is to collect the indicator related data and than identifying the most vulnerable area, where as the second is finding the loopholes within the vulnerable areas through site survey, expert interviews and HH survey
6. INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT A range of widely-accepted relevant characteristics and indicators are being presented in literature, the actual conditions that determine flood vulnerability are to a certain degree very site-specific, location, and hazard-dependent. To some extent these indicators can also be classified into social and physical parameters. Given below the list of parameters compiled in
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the table which were selected through relevant literature review and field surveys and expert interviews (Kamat R. 2017). Thus, Based on literature review social and physical parameter were identified. Thus vulnerability factors were collected from secondary sources. Literature was also useful for other Secondary information. Maps were required for spatial information as well as for identifying. These indicators (responsible for urban flood vulnerability fit the local conditions and the flood characteristics best. At the same time, data for their assessment are available. (Table 4).
6.1. Data Checklist Based on the set of indicators prepared in the above section a checklist was prepared listing the sources of the data Collection and also the methodology the indicator can be assessed for identifying the most vulnerable zone. (Table 5) Apart from these, there was more information to be collected for identifying the most vulnerable zone. A questionnaire was prepared for the zonal officers and the population living in the locality asking about their experience with floods and if yes then what was the duration of flood, how much time did it take to recover. Also the information was collected regarding the quality of infrastructure they have in their zones like water supply, drainage, sanitation, hospitals, schools etc., knowledge about identify the most vulnerable zones and the major issues of that area, which would play a major role in deciding the direction of suggestions and recommendations.
Table 3 Selection of parameters relevant for the flood vulnerability in the urban area Physical No. Relevance Indicators Reference parameter PHYSICAL VARIABLES i) Percentage of household with Kutcha roof Determines the physical fragility towards flood events ii) Percentage of and indicates the resistance to damage and also the household with Kutcha Schneiderbaue Main construction social status wall r (2007); 1 material for roof, Some types of construction material allow humidity to iii) Percentage of Taubenbock walls and floor remain in the walls or floor after flood events which household with Kutcha (2007); can lead to health problems floor iv) Percentage of household with Pucca floor Number of households Condition of People that live in houses with poor condition shows in delipiated condition Schneider 2 household much higher exposure to the floods to the number of total Bauer (2007) households Rapid industrial, commercial and economic growth i) Built up v/s Open promoted flooding with excess rainfall due to the total UNESCO-IHE impervious cover of the area. 3 Landuse ii) Proportion of green Stow et al. The higher the amount of green spaces in an area, the spaces (2007) higher the retention potential and the lower the flood hazard Topographical elements influence land use and drainage network elements. Topography changes on 4 Topography Elevation (in meters) UNESCO-IHE flood parameters, such as maximum flood discharge and time to peak.
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Closeness of inundation areas is always a threat for the Proximity to 5 Inundation areas UNESCO-IHE people living overt here in case of heavy rainfall. inundation areas Type of soil in terms of percolation of water from the 6 Soil type surface is a major factor of concern in urban flooding. Porosity of the soil UNESCO-IHE It largely depends on the built-up cover of the area. Higher the ground water table is considered to be a Ground water Ground water 7 danger for urban areas. Water level reaches the surface prospects UNESCO-IHE level quite early in case of heavy rainfall. SOCIAL VARIABLES Because of large amount of people, more materials are needed, like wood, land, food, etc. This aggravates 5 Population Population Density UNESCO-IHE overgrazing, over cultivation and soil erosion, which increases the risk of flooding. The young and the elderly people are vulnerable to Schneiderbaue Population below 6 6 Age natural hazards both because of their physical condition r (2007); Haki years and their financial dependence. et al. (2004); Women are generally described as more vulnerable to Wisner et al. natural hazards than men because of their stronger 7 Gender Sex ratio (2004); Haki et involvement in family life, sector-specific jobs and al. (2004 lower wages Haki et al. The higher the household size, the lower the social Number of (2004); 8 status and the higher the amount of people affected and Household size Households Cutter et al. therewith the damage (2003) Strong relation to income and social status contributes Schneiderbaue Illiterate population to 9 Level of education to a better knowledge about natural extreme events and r (2007); the total population their origins Velasquez Indicates the regularity of income and therewith the Non working Employment Dwyer et al., 9 possibilities of a household to save money for flood population to the total status 2004) mitigation measures or to cope with negative affects. population
Table 4 Data source and methodology applied for the derivation of information No. Indicators Data Source Methodology PHYSICAL INDICATORS Calculated the Number of total households in the zone made with Percentage of household material, which are considered to be Kutcha for the construction of 1 Census, 2011 with Kutcha roof roofs of the buildings. The percentage of Kutcha roof houses out of the total number households was calculated Percentage of household 2 Census, 2011 Similar as above with Kutcha wall Percentage of household 3 Census, 2011 Similar as above with Kutcha floor Percentage of household 4 Census, 2011 Similar as above with Pucca floor Number of households in 5 Census, 2011 Similar as above delipiated condition Bhopal Digitizing the landuse map of 2005 and than calculating the 6 Built up v/s Open Development plan percentage of built up cover to the total area of the zone. 2005 Bhopal Proportion of green Digitizing the landuse map of 2005 and than calculating the 7 Development plan spaces percentage of green cover to the total area of the zone. 2005 8 Elevation (in meters) Bhuvan (DEM) Preparing the contour map in ArcGIS. Bhopal Proximity to inundation Development plan Overlaying the map of inundation areas one over the overlaying the 9 areas 2005 and media zonal map of Bhopal. coverage 10 Porosity of the soil Land use map Depends on the percentage of built up area present in the zone. More
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2005 built up reduces the porosity of the soil. (built up area) Bhopal DP Bhopal Municipal Digitizing the ground water prospect map in GIS and than overlaying 11 Ground water prospects Corporation 2005 it with zonal map of Bhopal. 12 Drainage pattern Bhuvan (DEM) Preparing the drainage map in ArcGIS. SOCIAL VARIABLES Population Density 13 Census, 2011 Total population divided by the area of the zone. (person per hectare) Calculating the percentage of below 06 years to the total population of 14 Population below 6 years Census, 2011 the zone 15 Sex ratio Census, 2011 Number of female population to the male population. 16 Household size Census, 2011 Total Population to the number of household of the zone Illiterate population to the The relative proportion of the sum of all people belonging to the 17 Census, 2011 total population illiterate group to the total population of the zone. Non working population The relative proportion of the sum of all people belonging to the non- 18 Census, 2011 to the total population working group to the total population of the zone.
6.2. Analysis for weighing the indicator A sensitivity analysis was carried out for identifying the weights of the most relevant indicators based on the evaluation of the experts (Kamat R. 2017). The experts were asked to rank the indicators on the scale of 1-5. The zone officers were also asked to rank the indicators just to make them aware and know about their knowledge in the field of urban flooding. It was observed that the physical indicators got the highest ranks as compared to the social indicators because physical indicators are the urban flood driving factors whereas social indicators and variables plays a minor role in causing the situations of urban flooding. The table given below is the compilation and analysis of all the indicators ranked according to the experts. (Table VI)
Table 5 Analysis of weighing with respect to urban flooding Rank I II III IV V PHYSICAL VARIABLES 1) Percentage of household with Kutcha roof 2) Percentage of household with Kutcha wall 3) Percentage of household with Kutcha floor 4) Percentage of household with Pucca floor 5) Number of households in delipiated condition to the number of total households 6) Built up v/s Open 7) Proportion of green spaces 8) Elevation (in meters) 9) Proximity to inundation areas 10) Less Porosity of the soil 11) Ground water prospects 12) Drainage pattern SOCIAL VARIABLES 13) Population Density (person per hectare) 14) Population below 6 years
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Rank I II III IV V 15) Sex ratio 16) Household size 17) Illiterate population to the total population 18) Non working population to the total population Source:Expert survey These experts were from the disaster management institute, EPCO (Environmental Planning and Coordination Organization), MANIT (Department of Architecture and Planning). The indicators were ranked in respect to the urban flooding, like in the case of seasonal flooding indicators do not play a major role because the seasonal floods are very prompt and may have a huge impact on urban areas. But when we talk about urban floods, these are highly influenced by the indicators given above and every indicator has its own significance in causing floods. Suitability of indicators in the framework (Identifying the most vulnerable zone The data was collected ward wise and grouped together as zones for the analysis of the framework. This framework comprises comparison of all the 14 zones w.r.t to each zone. The comparison is depicted in the form of graphs and maps, later through the preparation of maps ranking of each zone was done on the scale of 1-5 has been done, where 5 is most vulnerable and 1 is least vulnerable. Data was entered into excel sheet, which was later linked to GIS and the maps were generated for each indicator. Zone getting the highest value depending on the vulnerability was ranked as of highest vulnerability (5). The same process was repeated for individual indicators.
7. ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK In this section comparison of each zone has been done as per their degree of vulnerability (Kamat R. 2017). Each zone was ranked on the scale of 1 to 5 for each indicator. Rank 5 is given to the most vulnerable zone for a particular indicator and rank 1 is for the least vulnerable zone. 5 4 3 2 1 Most Moderate Least vulnerable vulnerable Weightage given by the experts has also been considered as visible in the table VII. The values are put in the formula as given below:
where, VI is vulnerability index, vi is rank given by maps generated on GIS and q i is the weightage given by the experts.
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Table 6 Ranking of the zones and weightage given to various indicators Zone S. 1 FINAL INDICATORS WEIGHTAG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 No. 4 E (qi) Household Condition: Delipiated 1 4 5 4 2 3 3 3 2 2 4 1 5 2 4 5 Households
S
R 2 Percentage of household with Kutcha roof 2 4 4 2 5 2 4 5 3 5 2 4 3 3 4 O T
A 3 Percentage of household with Kutcha wall 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 5 3 4 1 3 4 3 3 C I
D 4 Percentage of household with Kutcha floor 2 4 3 4 5 4 4 2 5 3 5 1 1 3 1 N I
L 5 Percentage of household with pucca floor 4 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 2 1 2 4 5 4 5 CA I
S 6 Landuse (Built up area %) 5 1 4 4 5 3 3 4 3 5 5 1 3 2 1 Y H
P 7 Landuse (Proportion of green area) 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 5 5 4 4 2 3 5 Elevation: Highest elevation is ranked as 8 5 3 1 1 5 2 2 4 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 lowest Inundation areas (Proximity to inundation 9 4 3 5 1 4 5 5 5 3 5 1 3 1 1 1 area) 10 Soil (Porosity) 5 1 5 5 5 1 1 5 5 5 5 1 5 1 1
. 11 Population (Population Density) 5 1 4 4 5 2 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 2 C I
D 12 Age (population below 6 years) 1 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 1 3 3 3 5 N I
L 13 (Gender) Female Population 1 1 5 3 5 4 3 3 4 3 5 3 3 3 2 A I
C 14 Number of households (Household size) 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 3 4 1 1 2 2 4 O S 15 Level of education (Illiterate population) 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 1 3 2 2 5 Employment status (non working 16 1 1 3 4 4 4 1 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 population) Putting these value in the formula separately as discussed above we obtain a following framework through excel. (Table VIII
Table 7 Ranking of the zones and weightage given to various indicators S. ZONE 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 No. FINAL INDICATORS 0 2 Household Condition: Delipiated 1 20 16 8 12 12 12 8 8 16 5 20 6 16 20 Households 2 Percentage of household with Kutcha roof 8 8 4 10 4 8 10 6 10 4 8 5 6 8 3 Percentage of household with Kutcha wall 9 9 6 12 9 9 15 9 12 4 9 7 9 9 4 Percentage of household with Kutcha floor 8 6 8 10 8 8 4 10 6 7 2 3 6 2 5 Percentage of household with pucca floor 4 12 12 8 12 12 16 8 4 6 16 9 16 20 1 6 Landuse (Built up area %) 5 20 20 25 15 15 20 15 25 5 8 10 5 0 7 Landuse (Proportion of green area) 12 12 12 12 4 4 8 20 20 8 16 6 12 20 Elevation: Highest elevation is ranked as 8 15 5 5 25 10 10 20 15 20 7 15 8 15 15 lowest Inundation areas (Proximity to inundation 9 12 20 4 16 20 20 20 12 20 5 12 5 4 4 area) 1 1 10 Soil (Porosity) 5 25 25 25 5 5 25 25 20 5 5 5
0 0 11 Population (Population Density) 5 20 20 25 10 15 20 20 25 8 10 7 10 10 12 Age (population below 6 years) 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 2 3 4 3 5 13 (Gender) Female Population 1 5 3 5 4 3 3 4 3 6 3 4 3 2 14 Number of households (Household size) 12 9 12 15 9 6 6 9 12 4 3 5 6 12 15 Level of education (Illiterate population) 6 6 8 8 6 4 6 6 8 3 6 4 4 10 Employment status (non working 16 1 3 4 4 4 1 5 4 4 3 2 4 3 4
population) 17 15 21 13 13 18 17 20 9 13 9 12 15 Total value: 126 9 5 6 5 4 9 5 9 2 5 5 8 1
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ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: Comparison of zones ZONE 1 ZONE 250 ZONE 14 200 2 ZONE ZONE 13 150 3 100 ZONE ZONE 12 50 4 0 ZONE ZONE 11 5
ZONE ZONE 10 6 ZONE ZONE 9 7 ZONE Total value after put8ting the values in framework
Figure 9 Comparison of zones In the above chart depicts the number of times a particular zone has been ranked with the degree of vulnerability. Zone number 4 and 9 has the highest rank of vulnerability out of which zone number 9 has been ranked with the degree 4 and 5 the maximum times. 7 out 16 indicators have been ranked with degree 5 and 6 with the degree of 4. Also zone number 9 overlaps with the flood affected areas during the floods of 2006 and 2016. Hence, considering all the aspects and comparison of indicators zone 9 has been identified as the most vulnerable zone. The most vulnerable zone has been identified and now the loopholes in that particular zone will be discussed and the suitable suggestions and recommendations would be given for the zone.
7.1. Brief introduction to most vulnerable zones (zone 4 & 9) Urban floods can be prevented with the help of adequate physical planning and emergency measures through flood. Management, it can often reduce their disastrous consequences. Inceptions of any flood management normally begin after a major flood event. People always have some other priorities until a major disaster happens. So, to avoid such hazardous situations measures shall be taken at the administrative level, community level and even at the household level. Mitigation planning is always about taking care of the present with the past experiences and future projections. Here, in this case zone number 4 and 9 were identified as the most vulnerable zones. To understand the root causes of urban flooding in these areas site visits and field surveys were carried out. People living in the core problematic areas within the zone were asked about the issues they have been facing and what changes do they want in their living and their surrounding for a better environmental conditions. Since, there are more areas facing the some problem but zone number 4 & 9 getting the highest weightage are considered to be the standard cases for the worst conditions of urban flooding. The further sections will give a brief profile of both the zones. Both the zone lie adjacent to each other situated in the north of upper lake and lower lake as well the city Bhopal. These zones are known for their ancient history and cultural values because of the zones are few of the oldest and most congested areas of the city.
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Source: MPUIIP GIS BASE Map Bhopal
Figure 10 Location of vulnerable zones The development activities has been happening since a very long time so there is no proper planning of the buildings and other infrastructure like sewerage, drainage, water supply, electricity etc. Zone 4 consists half of the old walled city of Bhopal, the area is itself ara, Hamedia hospital, maha mai ka bagh, aish bagh etc. Zone 9 is popular for having one field hockey stadium in the Aish bagh area, which is known as Aishbagh stadium. Figure 6, shows the location and the major Landmarks of both the zones.
7.2. Vulnerable areas within the zones
Figure 11 Vulnerable areas within zones
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The zone 4 and 9 are identified as the vulnerable zones in the case of urban floods, but even in the zones we have the most critical areas having very poor conditions and influencing the whole zone, resulting into the most vulnerable zone. So, the same way these zones have few problematic areas like slums or densely populated areas, which collectively affect the whole zone. Figure 8 over here depicts few of these areas.
Source: Field visits and Imagery su
Figure 12 Vulnerable areas within zones (Images) Cities have been permanently developing their water-related infrastructure and discharging their urban waters into the nearest water body. During time, natural, undisturbed, discharging conditions were becoming deteriorated due to the raising of the river water stages. Floods in urban conditions are flashy in nature and occur both on urbanized surfaces (streets, parking lots, yards, parks) and in small urban creeks that deliver water to large water bodies. Other causes of urban floods are: Inadequate land use and channelization of natural waterways Failure of the city protection dikes Inflow from the river during high stages into urban drainage system Surcharge due to blockage of drains and street inlets Soil erosion generating material that clogs drainage system and inlets Inadequate Street cleaning practice that clogs street inlets Sudden Urban Floods disrupt the social systems of the countries and the cities, and cause enormous economic losses. Impacts produced by increased runoff in urban setting are the following: Loss of human life Flooding of housing, commercial and industrial properties Flooding of streets, intersections and transportation systems, causing traffic delays Recurring basement backups from surcharged sanitary sewers
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Inflow of storm water into sanitary sewers Municipal wastewater treatment plant by-passing Combined sewer overflows- spilling the surcharged sewers content into streets Damage to public and personal property Health hazards Disruption of services such as water supply, sewerage and power supply Delays in public transportation Cleanup demands Adverse effects upon the aesthetics Disturbance of wildlife habitats Economic losses Pollution of local waterways and receiving water bodies
7.3. Suggestions and recommendations If the damage is assessed before the occurance of a disaster measures can be taken beforehand to minimise the damages (Kamat R. 2009). Our objectives of flood management are specific final results that should to be achieved in a predetermined timeframe. Those are: Reducing exposure of people and property to flood hazards Reducing existing level of flood damages Minimizing soil erosion and sedimentation problems Protecting environmental quality and well-being by reducing in-the-catchment pollution Improving the usefulness of floodplains Minimizing receiving water pollution Reducing future after-development flow rates to pre-development levels Enhancing recreational opportunities and improving overall urban amenities Replenishing ground water The FM measures can be categorized into structural, non-structural measures and capacity building. Structural measures for FM are physical in nature and aim to prevent floodwaters from reaching potential damage centers, whereas non- structural measures strive to keep the people away from floodwaters.
8. CONCLUSION An optimal engineering solution may not be the best because of social and institutional constraints, which means that traditional engineering codes reflect criteria which are not anymore politically permissible. The origins and consequences of flooding have to be fully understood, particularly in developing countries, in order to propose and justify adequate institutional strengthening (regulatory agencies, conservation authorities) which should overcome existing institutional and political barriers. Broad multi-media promotion of non- structural urban flood management measures should be carried out particularly at the level of local communities where flood protection facilities are exposed to atrophy due to globally experienced budgetary cutting. Urban flood risk depends on a combination of components
http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJCIET 2975 [email protected] Dr. Rajshree Kamat comprising hazard and vulnerability. It underlines the combination of natural and human factors that create flood risks. Urban flood planning and management measures have to be planned across administrative and sector boundaries. Institutionalized links between concerned authorities facilitate cooperative planning. Successful urban flood risk management is obtained if structural and non-structural measures are implemented. The implementation of multiple purpose measures enables municipalities to achieve multiple goals such as flood mitigation, water supply, space for recreational activities, groundwater recharge and improvement of urban environment. Monitoring and evaluation of implemented measures enable the identification of best practices under the specific circumstances and help to constantly improve flood risk management plans. Community participation in flood risk assessment as well as in planning and implementation of risk management measures is a key for the success of urban flood risk management plans. As per the outcome of the research, further research should be done for proper preparedness and response during future urban flood of not only Bhopal but also other cities. In the context of urbanization, disaster risk increases as a result of lack of smart planning/sustainable city planning. Vulnerability assessment based planning for the future risks found above Show the link between DRR and city and urban planning which will further guide for future practices/policies of town and urban planning which is the benefit of making risk reduction an integral part of local development. The importance of good information for urban risk assessment, government civil society collaboration, and links between local, national and regional levels of government is also evident.
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