International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 10, Issue 01, January 2019, pp. 29562977, Article ID: IJCIET_10_01_258 Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijmet/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=10&IType=1 ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316 © IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed URBAN FLOOD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BHOPAL, M.P., INDIA Dr. Rajshree Kamat Senior Assistant Professor, Department of Architecture and Planning, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India ABSTRACT Bhopal, the city of lakes is one of the very beautiful and peaceful cities of India with least vulnerability to natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, landslides etc. In recent years residents of this city find themselves vulnerable to urban floods. Earlier the rainy season in Bhopal used to be so pleasant that people used to take long trips in the nearby areas by road just to enjoy the rains. Nowadays everyone wants to stay at home to stay safe during rains to avoidor to combat problems. The floods are due to natural factors such as heavy rainfall, high floods etc. Blocking of channels or aggravation of drainage channels, improper land use, deforestation in headwater regions, etc., are human factors. The focus of this study is mainly upon the urban flooding scenarios. The paper is based on studying the physical and socio- economic indicators causing urban floods and their impacts on the city of Bhopal. Bhopal has been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains of sudden increase and decrease in population. City being a highly urbanized Municipal area, has given many challenges to be tackled through planning interventions. Urban floods are one of those challenges. Bhopal city has no significant history of urban floods. But from last one decade the city has been facing many situations of urban flooding during the monsoon season. The un-even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization, encroachment and filling of natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the high-value urban land for buildings are the causes of urban flooding. Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. Variety of indicators can be introduced to assess vulnerability therefore selection of more appropriate methodology is vital for authorities. The more accepted assessing method could be used to assess and identify the most vulnerable areas. This paper also includes a suitable framework to assess problematic flood vulnerability in urban areas. Key words: Urban floods, Climate change, Flood vulnerability assessment; Flood control measures; Urban planning and development. Cite this Article: Dr. Rajshree Kamat, Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Bhopal, M.P., India, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology 10(1), 2019, pp. 29562977. http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJCIET?Volume=10&Issue=1 http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJCIET 2956 [email protected] Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Bhopal, M.P., India 1. INTRODUCTION Flooding in general and urban flooding in particular is not an unknown event in world and in India. The un- even distribution of rainfall coupled with Mindless urbanization, encroaching upon and filling up natural drainage channels and urban lakes to use the high-value urban land for buildings are the cause of urban flooding. Unregulated development in urban area makes the people in developing countries to occupy the hazardous area, thus, making them vulnerable to disasters (Kamat R. 2013) Vulnerability is the main construct in flood risk management. One of the most significant aims of flood vulnerability assessment is to make a clear association between the theoretical conceptions of flood vulnerability and the daily administrative process (Hajar Nasiri, 2016). -most populous nation, may surge 10-fold by 2030 as cities expand and climate challenges worsen, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). A new online global flood-analyzing tool developed by WRI and four Dutch research agencies showed India topped the list among countries with population affected by river flooding on average each year (Chaudhary A. 2015). WRI ranked 163 countries by number of people impacted by river flooding. Led by India, the 15 worst-hit accounted for almost 80% of the total population affected. Bangladesh was a distant second, then China, followed by Vietnam, Pakistan and Indonesia, the tool showed. Annual economic losses from natural disasters have almost quadrupled in the past three decades, the World Bank said in 2013. In particular, southeast Asia faces a notable increase in risk, according to Hessel Winsemius, a researcher at Netherlands-based Deltares, one of the project partners. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer estimates current and future potential exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state, country and major river basin in the world. not a good estimation of what flood risks could be in the (Chaudhary A. 2015). Climate change has played an important role in causing large-scale floods across central India, including the Mumbai floods of 2006 and 2017. During 1901-2015, there has been a three-fold rise in widespread extreme rainfall events, across central and northern India Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam and parts of Western Ghats Goa, north Karnataka and South Kerala (Roxy, M. K et al., 2017) .The rising number of extreme rain events are attributed to an increase in the fluctuations of the monsoon westerly winds, due to increased warming in the Arabian Sea. This results in occasional surges of moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the subcontinent, resulting in heavy rains lasting for 23 days, and spread over a region large enough to cause floods. (Roxy, M. K et al., 2017) (Simpkins, Graham, 2017). 2. FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS OF MADHYA PRADESH As per the State Disaster Management Authority of Madhya Pradesh, With respect to floods, Madhya Pradesh State of India has been divided in to ten river basins. These river basins are Mahi, Chambal, Kuwari Sindh, Betwa, Dhasan & Ken, Tons, Son, Waniganga, Tapti and Narmada as can be seen in Fig. 1 & Fig. 2. http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJCIET 2957 [email protected] Dr. Rajshree Kamat Figure 1 River Basins of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018) Figure 2 River Basins of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018) In last 25 years, 36 flood affected districts of Madhya Pradesh have faced floods for 6 to 11 years, as can be seen in Fig. 3. Figure 3 Flood affected districts of Madhya Pradesh (Source-SDMA, MP, 2018) http://iaeme.com/Home/journal/IJCIET 2958 [email protected] Urban Flood Vulnerability Assessment of Bhopal, M.P., India This data as well as experience of last 40-50 years or more shows least vulnerability of South of Bhopal district towards natural floods because of the rivers. Analysis has been made using the historical IMD gridded daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall data from 1951-2013 (63 years) for the districts of Madhya Pradesh (UNDP, 2017). The amount of rainfall received has been slightly decreasing over Madhya Pradesh whereas this rainfall has been received in fewer days over the period. Both of these trends have huge implications in terms of more severe floods, failure of rain-fed crops, lesser groundwater recharge, enhanced soil erosion, etc. (UNDP, 2017). Projected Climate - RCP4.5 (low), RCP8.5 (high) (near term: 2021-2050; long term: 2071-2100). Projected extreme events: Heavy rainfall, heat waves, floods and drought are likely to increase in future and will become increasingly important and will play a more significant role in disaster management (UNDP, 2017). 3. ABOUT THE STUDY AREA: BHOPAL Bhopal is located in the central part of India, witnessing rapid urban development and industrialization. Bhopal's 2018 population is now estimated at 2,254,000. In 1950, the population of Bhopal was 100,000. Bhopal has grown by 152,000 since 2015, which represents a 2.35% annual change. These population estimates and projections come from the latest revision of the UN World Urbanization Prospects. These estimates represent the urban agglomeration of Bhopal, which typically includes Bhopal's population in addition to adjacent suburban areas. City of Bhopal lies in the southern part of the district, and the majority of the population resides within Bhopal municipality. Bhopal has been repeatedly subjected to stress and strains of sudden increase and decrease in population. After independence, the rehabilitation of migrant population and establishment of BHEL added to the sharp increase in the population during the post independence era. Fast urbanization in Bhopal during last four decades is resulting in increase in paved area and decrease in the agricultural land, which used to act as a percolation zone which is continuously depleting. Further, poor planning, urban sprawl, encroachments and illegal construction, poorly designed and maintained storm water drains and inadequate solid waste management resulting into choking and blockages in the drains. Unplanned urbanization and poor management are therefore the main factors behind flooding in urban areas. As per the National Disaster Management Authorities (NDMA) guideline, the imperviousness and concretization in urban areas increases the flood peaks to 1.8 to 8 times and flood volumes up to 6 times. Mostly the slums and squatter dwellers and lower income groups are more vulnerable to urban floods as they tends to live