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Singapore Office Briefing Q3 2017

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Singapore Office Briefing Q3 2017 Savills World Research Singapore Briefi ng Offi ce sector November 2017 Image: Collyer Quay SUMMARY Notwithstanding elevated vacancy levels, CBD Grade A offi ce rents are rising in Q3/2017. Backed by their strong holding ft and no new supply, the vacancy rate transaction values of S$2.48 billion. power and healthy commitment from of Grade A offi ce space in the CBD Capital values of CBD Grade A tenants, landlords of prime new offi ce fell 0.7 of a percentage point (ppt) to offi ces stayed fi rm at S$2,723 per buildings are now confi dent enough 5.8%. sq ft. to increase asking rents, with those owning older buildings, attempting to Average rents of CBD Grade A follow the trend. offi ces increased slightly in Q3/2017 “As the offi ce market becomes after recording no change in the The “fl ight-to-new-projects” theme previous quarter. Rents of such more complex, understanding which dominated the leasing market buildings tracked by Savills edged since the 2H/2015, has gradually how the market structure up 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to morphed from observation to concrete evolves now is more important rental increases. However, tenants will S$8.78 per sq ft in Q3/2017. consider relocating to newer buildings than traditional demand supply only if there are strong push factors. The offi ce investment sales market also showed encouraging analysis.” As at the end of September 2017, results in Q3/2017 with seven Alan Cheong, Savills Research with net take-up at around 197,000 sq deals completed, resulting in total MCI (P) 066/10/2017 Company Reg No. 198703410D savills.com.sg/research 01 Briefi ng | Singapore offi ce sector November 2017 Market commentary Q1/2017. Based on the statistics the biggest offi ce investment sales Based on the advance estimates from the Urban Redevelopment deal in Singapore so far this year. from the Ministry of Trade and Authority (URA), there were a total of The transaction total of S$2.094 Industry (MTI), Singapore’s 1,1901 leases that commenced in the billion translates to S$2,689 per sq ft economy expanded 4.6% year- third quarter, a 2.1% increase from a based on 778,719 sq ft net lettable on-year (YoY) in Q3/2017, the quarter ago. space. Separately, CCT divested strongest growth in more than the commercial component at its three years. The robust economy However, the “fl ight-to-new projects” Wilkie Edge to a joint venture of Lian performance was supported mainly theme which dominated the leasing Beng Group and Apricot Capital for by the manufacturing sector which market, since the second half of S$280.0 million. In addition, there 2015, has gradually morphed from were fi ve strata-sale transactions, continued to power ahead with a observation to concrete rental each worth at least S$10 million, in 15.5% YoY growth. Service sector increases. Tenants will now consider Q3/2017, involving strata units at growth also accelerated, growing relocating to newer buildings only if Springleaf Tower, Suntec Towers and by 2.6% YoY in Q3/2017. The there are strong push factors, such Prudential Tower in the CBD. job market also showed further as unreasonably high renewal rents signs of recovery with the overall by existing landlords, big changes to Demand, supply and unemployment rate down slightly their real estate requirements arising vacancy from 2.2% in June to 2.1% in from mergers & acquisition activity Based on Savills estimates, with September. and aging premises at their current tenants moving in newly-completed address. With rents beginning to projects and gradual take-up of In tandem with the broad-based trend up, coupled with limited supply secondary stock, the third quarter economic recovery, the offi ce leasing in the medium term, the forward- saw a net take-up of around 197,000 market begun to come alive in thinking tenants have jettisoned their sq ft Grade A CBD offi ce space. With the past few quarters. Sentiments previous bearish outlook and begun no new supply entering the market, amongst landlords and offi ce early rental renewal negotiations, the occupancy level of CBD Grade marketing professionals have swung even if there is still one or two years A offi ce space improved with the from pessimism to optimism as fears left to run in their lease. vacancy rate dropping 0.7 of a ppt of oversupply began to evaporate. QoQ to 5.8%. Backed by the strong holding power The offi ce investment sales market of landlords and accompanied by also registered good results Rental and capital healthy commitment by tenants, in Q3/2017 with seven deals values landlords of prime new offi ce contributing a total transaction value After the second quarter, where rents buildings have turned bold and of S$2.48 billion. This number was did not change on a QoQ basis, began to raise asking rents. For more than double the S$1.18 billion average rents of overall CBD Grade A landlords of older buildings, they too in a quarter ago. Among these, the offi ces increased in Q3/2017. Rents have tried to follow suit. As a result most notable deal was CapitaLand of such buildings tracked by Savills of these factors, offi ce rents turned Commercial Trust’s (CCT) acquisition edged up 1.0% QoQ from S$8.70 the corner in Q3. At the same time, of Asia Square Tower 2 (excluding the per sq ft in Q2/2017 to S$8.78 per the number of leasing contracts hotel component) from BlackRock sq ft in Q3/2017. Grade AAA offi ce continued to increase for three Asia Property Fund III, which is also rents recorded the biggest quarterly consecutive quarters starting from 1 Based on data downloaded on 27 October 2017 growth of 2.1%, followed by those of Grade AA and Grade A offi ces, which GRAPH 1 increased marginally by 1.0% and Net demand, net supply and vacancy rate of CBD Grade A 0.6% respectively. offi ces, 2010–Q3/2017 On a location basis, rents were Net demand (LHS) Net supply (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS) unchanged in the City Hall and 4,000 40% Orchard Road submarkets, while 3,500 35% those in other areas rose slightly from 30% last quarter, with the Beach Road/ 3,000 Middle Road and Marina Bay micro- 25% 2,500 markets topping ranks at 2.7% QoQ 20% and 2.5% QoQ increase respectively. 2,000 15% 1,500 Underpinned by low interest rates sq ft ('000)sq ft 10% and ample liquidity, activity in the 1,000 5% offi ce sales market remained healthy 500 0% in Q3/2017. Capital values of CBD Grade A offi ces stayed fi rm and 0 -5% hovered around S$2,723 per sq ft in -500 -10% the quarter under review. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-Q3 2017 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy savills.com.sg/research 02 Briefi ng | Singapore offi ce sector November 2017 GRAPH 2 TABLE 1 Price and rental indices of CBD Grade A offi ces, Micro-market Grade A offi ce rents Q1/2010–Q3/2017 and vacancy rates, Q3/2017 Price index Rental index Monthly rent Vacancy rate Location 250 (S$ per sq ft) (%) Marina Bay 10.32 3.9 200 Raffl es Place 8.90 3.6 150 Shenton Way 8.04 4.5 100 Tanjong Pagar 7.78 8.9 Q1/2003 = 100 City Hall 9.08 4.3 50 Orchard Road 9.15 4.1 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Beach Road/Middle Road 7.32 23.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy Source: Savills Research & Consultancy OUTLOOK The prospects for the market Going by URA’s latest statistics, nine months of this year. This is a explanation to this seemingly bizarre after nine consecutive quarters’ signifi cant difference from the 279,900 rental-vacancy relationship and the decline, the median rent of sq ft for the similar period in 2016 and paradoxical behaviour for demand Category 121offi ce space just a faction of the 10-year average where the set of island-wide demand recovered in Q3/2017. It rose by of 917,100 sq ft for the Q1-Q3 period. does not appear to contain the subset 2.9% QoQ despite vacancy levels The situation is further complicated of CBD Grade A demand. rising even more sharply from when Savills estimates for the net 14.2% in Q2/2017 to 17.7% in take-up for just Grade A CBD offi ces Year-to-date, the high net take- Q3/2017. This unusual situation is for the fi rst nine months of 2017 was up for Grade A CBD offi ce space amplifi ed further when the island- 984,700 sq ft, much higher than the has been due to three kinds of wide net demand for offi ce space island-wide demand of 53,800 sq ft. tenant movements. One is by those was just 53,800 sq ft for the fi rst expanding within their existing Grade 21 Refers to offi ce space in buildings located The offi ce sector has become A CBD building and also by those in core business areas in Downtown Core and extremely complex. However, it is still expanding by moving to other Grade Orchard Planning Area which are relatively modern or recently refurbished, command relatively high possible to identify a trend between A buildings (new builds or otherwise).
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