Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, April 14

Headlines: ● Coronavirus Death Toll Climbs to 119, Cases to 11,868 ● Opposition to Palestinian State Harms Sovereignty ● PA Rebuffs Call to Stop ‘Incitement’ Campaign ● Hamas Ready to Release Information on Israeli Prisoners ● Netanyahu, Gantz to Resume Talks in Effort to Finalize Deal ● US Group Warns Annexation Would Damage Alliance ● Gaza Resumes Coronavirus Testing Despite Kit Shortages ● Hilltop Youth Suspected of Throwing Stones at Palestinians

Commentary: ● Jerusalem Post: “Priorities for the IDF Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic” − By Yaacov Ayish, former head of the IDF General Staff Operations Branch

● Times of Israel: “Politics? Not Again!” − By Esor Ben-Sorek

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts April 14, 2020 Ynet News Coronavirus Death Toll Climbs to 119, Cases to 11,868 Israel now has 11,868 confirmed coronavirus cases and the disease has now claimed the lives of 119 people, the Health Ministry said Tuesday morning. Of the latest number 181 patients are in serious condition, including 136 people in need of ventilator support, a rise of 2.3%. At least 168 patients are in moderate condition, while 9,402 have light symptoms. At least 2,000 patients have recovered from the virus. Hospitals are treating 763 patients, while 7,145 people are fighting the virus at home. Another 1,214 people are currently in specially designated hotels and 629 are awaiting a decision on whether they will be treated. Jerusalem still remains the city with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases with 2,258, followed closely by the Haredi city of Bnei Brak with 2,053. See also ‘‘Israel Stockpiles Malaria Drug to Treat Virus, in Case Trump Is Right About Cure’’ (Times of Israel).

Jerusalem Post Opposition to Palestinian State Harms Sovereignty Right-wing opponents of a Palestinian state are harming Israel’s chances of applying sovereignty to the settlements in Judea and Samaria, Efrat Council head Oded Revivi told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Revivi spoke out as three major settler leaders were in the midst of a public campaign to sway Derech Eretz parliamentarians Zvi Hauser and Yoav Hendel to help Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu form a right-wing government. If Netanyahu had their support, he could form a 61-member right-wing government. There would then be no need for Netanyahu to form a unity government with Blue and White Party head Benny Gantz. At issue is whether the government that will be formed could support US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, to which Netanyahu has already pledged allegiance. The plan, which was unveiled in January, allows Israel to apply sovereignty to 30% of the West Bank.

Times of Israel PA Rebuffs Call to Stop ‘Incitement’ Campaign Senior Palestinian officials refused on Monday to back down on accusations that Israel has been responsible for intentionally spreading the coronavirus in the West Bank, after Jerusalem called such claims “incitement” and warned of significant consequences for repeating them. “We will not bow to blackmail in any form,” Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said during a press conference. The premier was responding to a question regarding Hebrew media reports, according to which Israeli defense officials have been furious about the rhetoric coming out of Ramallah in recent days, where officials have implied or outright accused Israel of seeking to spread the virus among the Palestinian population. See also ‘‘PA: Israel Is an Agent of Coronavirus’’ (Jerusalem Post).

2 Jerusalem Post Hamas Ready to Release Information on Israeli Prisoners Hamas is ready to release information on Israeli prisoners if Israel releases 250 prisoners it's holding, but is still not ready to negotiate a deal to release the Israeli captives, according to Al- Akhbar. A German mediator who was involved in the prisoner swap that led to the release of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011 has begun participating in the current talks between Israel and Hamas. Hamas stressed that they will only negotiate the release of the four Israelis being held if Israel releases the prisoners that were re-arrested after they were originally released in the Shalit deal, according to Al-Akhbar. The terrorist group insists on dealing with the possible prisoner swap as a single file, including all four Israelis. Hamas is holding the bodies of IDF soldiers Lt. Hadar Goldin, Sgt. Oron Shaul and civilians Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed. It is unknown what the medical condition of Mengistu and al-Sayed is. Hamas claims that all four of the captives are Israeli soldiers. See also ‘‘Hamas Willing to Trade Information on Israelis Held in Gaza for Ventilators’’ (Ha’aretz).

Jerusalem Post Netanyahu, Gantz to Resume Talks in Effort to Finalize Deal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz reported making significant progress toward building a national emergency government late Monday night. Rather than meet all night, they decided to reconvene in the morning with their negotiating teams to complete a long-awaited agreement. Sources in the Likud negotiating team told The Jerusalem Post earlier Monday evening that "the gaps between the two sides have narrowed but disputes remain." Those disputes needed to be finalized by the two party leaders. Gantz's mandate to form a government ended at midnight, so Netanyahu and Gantz jointly asked President Reuven Rivlin for two additional days. Rivlin approved the request and technically extended Gantz's mandate to Wednesday night at midnight. See also ‘‘Netanyahu, Gantz Jointly Ask President to Extend Mandate as They Negotiate Unity Gov’t Into the Night’’ (Ha’aretz).

Times of Israel US Group Warns Annexation Would Damage Alliance A pro-Israel group sent letters to Israeli leaders that reports of planned annexations of parts of the West Bank would cause “long-term damage” to the US-Israel alliance. “Such a move would make a two-state solution harder — if not impossible to achieve — and would likely have far- reaching negative consequences for the US-Israel alliance,” Mark Mellman and Anne Lewis, the president and the co-chairwoman of the Democratic Majority for Israel, wrote to the three leaders negotiating to form a new government in Israel. The letters were sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and two of his rivals, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid. Annexation of parts of the West Bank may be on the table as part of a coalition agreement, according to reports. See also ''Prominent Pro-Israel Americans Warn Benny Gantz Against Joining Government That Would Annex West Bank Areas'' (Jewish Telegraphic Agency).

3 Ynet News Gaza Resumes Coronavirus Testing Despite Kit Shortages Coronavirus testing has resumed in the Gaza Strip after Israel allowed five testing kits purchased by the World Health Organization (WHO) into the enclave, a Gaza health ministry spokesman said on Monday. But the spokesman, Ashraf al-Qidra, said the kits would be of "limited immediate help" because they could be used to test only about 500 people in a densely populated territory of two million. On April 8, health officials in Gaza said they had run out of testing kits and voiced concern that a shortage of medical supplies could lead to the rapid spread of infection in the territory. Gaza has 13 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, all in quarantine. Colonel Sharon Biton of COGAT, an Israeli defense ministry office that liaises with the Palestinians, said it was cooperating with "representatives of the international community" to maintain public health in Gaza.

Jerusalem Post Hilltop Youth Suspected of Throwing Stones at Palestinians Masked Israelis allegedly threw stones at three Palestinians and sprayed them with pepper spray and then proceeded to light two cars on fire near the Dead Sea on Monday night, according to Ynet. Israeli youth staying in quarantine in a tent near Metsoke Dragot are suspected of carrying out the attack. The Palestinians did not require medical treatment. The group of far-right youth were quarantined by the IDF in a temporary outpost in the West Bank after shattering the windows of a bus taking them to a quarantine facility and trying to escape. The group of about 20 hilltop youth from the West Bank settlement of Yitzhar had refused to stay at a government quarantine hotel in Jerusalem after they were told they would have to stay in separate rooms. The youth staying in the tent were not being guarded. See also ‘‘Police Probe Firebombing of Palestinian Cars Near ‘Quarantine’ Outpost’’ (Times of Israel).

4 Jerusalem Post– April 14, 2020 Priorities for the IDF Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic By Yaacov Ayish ● The coronavirus pandemic has shifted priorities that animated nations only weeks ago, severely disrupting daily life and the global economy. As Israel struggles to contain the outbreak, its military must reckon with the dramatic changes unfolding at home and across the volatile Middle East – and recalibrate accordingly. In these uncertain times, Washington should protect its own regional interests by considering ways to support its ally, without expending resources that must be spent domestically. ● Israel is situated in a hostile neighborhood on the best of days, facing what Israel Defense Force leaders often describe as three concentric threat circles. The first is populated by nearby terrorist groups like Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, all of which receive Iranian aid. The second includes conventional threats, namely the Syrian military, which is bolstered by Iran’s Shiite militias and Hezbollah. The third circle encompasses unconventional dangers, mainly the specter of nuclear warfare with Iran. The Islamic Republic stands as a driving force in all three categories. ● To address these challenges, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi formally launched the ambitious five-year plan “Momentum” in February, following an extensive, yearlong assessment. The plan aims to increase the military’s lethality while shortening the duration of operations. It calls for integrating IDF systems into an advanced network that will empower fighting units to access precise, timely intelligence and rapidly locate and destroy enemy targets, all while minimizing damage to Israeli forces and the home front. “Momentum” recognizes that despite its missile defense systems, the Israeli economy and critical national infrastructure suffer while the country is under attack, and aims to neutralize threats with maximum efficiency. ● Yet funding for “Momentum” was unclear before the pandemic hit, amid protracted political deadlock and efforts to reduce Israel’s snowballing budget deficit. It now faces complete derailment, as Israel implements unprecedented restrictions to fight the pandemic that have raised its unemployment rate from under 4% to a staggering 24%. This economic crisis led the government to recently introduce an NIS 80 b. ($22.6 b.) stimulus plan, further swelling the deficit. With plummeting tax revenues, increased expenditures and declining growth, the Israeli government will face serious budgetary difficulties even before it considers additional IDF funding. The makeup of Israel’s expected unity government will add another layer of complexity, as a cabinet with broad backing and two former IDF chiefs of staff, Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi, can more easily question military requests or reallocate defense spending without major political blowback. ● Kochavi will have to reassess the IDF’s operational requirements in light of what the economy can now afford, and to reevaluate Israel’s strategic environment. Though coronavirus has severely impacted Iran, Tehran’s proxies have continued confronting US forces in Iraq while a Hezbollah drone recently breached Israeli airspace. The pandemic’s

5 lasting impact on the Middle East remains to be seen. Kochavi has multiple solutions at his disposal, as well as the requisite experience, vision, and leadership ability. The IDF could prioritize its response to first-circle threats like Hamas and Hezbollah, and rely on its existing capabilities to counter the nuclear threat. The military can also explore outsourcing second and third-tier support activities that do not directly impact readiness. Such tradeoffs would both reduce fixed costs and provide a needed boost to the civil sector. ● The IDF should also reconsider its “mega projects,” such as the Eitan armored personnel carrier (APC) and the new self-propelled artillery gun ATMOS. It could use US foreign military support to procure American platforms, or to manufacture them in the US. Critical R&D operations, both domestically and with the US should, however, not be suspended, as they will ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge and support economic growth. The IDF should pursue further solutions along with its American ally, whose regional interests Israel helps protect. As detailed in a November report by JINSA, the countries could frontload the funds already designated by the 2016 memorandum of understanding (MoU) on US defense assistance to Israel, which are currently locked at a steady annual level through 2027. For instance, Israel could take a commercial loan against the MoU and use the funds to procure critical weapons. The US would incur no additional costs, while its post-pandemic economy would benefit as Israel must spend most of the funds on American equipment. ● Washington may also consider replenishing its prepositioned munition stockpiles in Israel, to further improve readiness and deterrence. This could be done by relocating existing US regional stocks, which would not initially involve new outlays. These solutions will still require the IDF to sacrifice portions of its strategic vision, at least in the short term. Yet the military already has the advantage of strong tactical leadership, rigorous training, and extensive operational contingency plans. With careful preparation, it will be able to deftly navigate the challenges of the post-pandemic landscape.

6 Times of Israel – April 14, 2020 Politics? Not Again! By Esor Ben-Sorek ● Our distinguished President Reuven Rivlin has lost his “cool”. He is frustrated and angry that talks between Netanyahu and Gantz have so-far failed to reach an agreement. The president has made ultimatums, particularly to Netanyahu, who the president feels is the source of the dissention. He has set a deadline on which an agreement must be signed or new elections, for the fourth time in a year, will be called. How successful another round of elections will be is doubtful. How many voters will want to go to the polling stations with large crowds? They believe it will be better to stay at home and let the High Court make the decisions for establishing a new government. Readers, largely from anglo backgrounds, still fail after so many years in Israel to understand how our rotten and corrupt-filled political system really works (when it is, at least, working). We are not Canada nor Australia. We are a tiny nation dominated by a corrupt government. ● We need to change our political system at once. We have more than 38 political parties, mostly small splinter groups. We need no more than four (4) political parties and they are: Right wing, left wing, religious and Arab. Those four parties should be able to include every Israeli voter. In the past few years of Netanyahu’s “one-man” rule (his own) we have seen more indecisiveness and false statements, some at the level of a dictatorship. President Rivlin has given an ultimatum. Either sign an agreement at once or we shall go to new elections. If Bibi Netanyahu is smart (which he is, only sometimes) he would conclude that it would be best for him to voluntarily step down due to illness brought on by tensions and fatigue. Surely it would be a better thing for him to consider rather than being booted out by legislation or elections. ● On the other hand, if Bibi receives a mandate to form a government, the petition to the High Court demanding that no indicted person can hold the position of prime minister may be accepted by the court. That, of course, would be more humiliating to Netanyahu. Besides his Likud party there are not many others in Knesset or in political huddles who would want another Netanyahu-led government. Should Bibi begin packing his suitcases and personal belongings in preparation to exit the prime minister’s residence on rehov Balfour in Jerusalem? Don’t ask him. Ask only Sara. She makes the decisions. President Rivlin is old and tired and yet continues working feverishly on behalf of the nation. He does not need more aggravation. We should applaud his forthright ultimatum to Netanyahu. Form a unity government with Benny Gantz, sign the agreement, end the stubbornness, or take a leave of absence from governing (a permanent leave many of us hope for). ● Gantz wants his party to have control of the judiciary and authority of selecting judges to our courts. Netanyahu opposes it and demands that those functions be given to Likud and its political allies. They are stuck in finding an agreement. Yamina, under Naftali Bennett, is fuming that so many of the highest cabinet and ministerial offices have been given to the Blue and White party, thus alienating Yamina in its relationship to Likud. Experts inform us that no coronavirus vaccine will be available before the coming 12 – 18 7 months. Hopefully those same experts can invent a vaccine that will put Israel’s political system into a sleep… one that will last for 20 years. The author Washington Irving wrote a charming story about Rip van Winkle who fell asleep for twenty years. When he awoke he did not recognize where he was nor the people in the town. Wouldn’t it be nice if Binyamin Netanyahu could fall asleep for twenty year? When he would awake he would be 90 years old. Too old to damage our government, our State and our people. Well, I can dream, can’t I?

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