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Testing of Weak Form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from the Bahrain Bourse” “Testing of weak form of efficient market hypothesis: evidence from the Bahrain Bourse” Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7181-2493 AUTHORS http://www.researcherid.com/rid/H-6260-2018 Babitha Rohit Prakash Pinto Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar , Babitha Rohit and Prakash Pinto (2017). Testing of ARTICLE INFO weak form of efficient market hypothesis: evidence from the Bahrain Bourse. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 14(2-2), 376-385. doi:10.21511/imfi.14(2-2).2017.09 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(2-2).2017.09 RELEASED ON Monday, 21 August 2017 RECEIVED ON Sunday, 02 April 2017 ACCEPTED ON Tuesday, 11 July 2017 LICENSE This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License JOURNAL "Investment Management and Financial Innovations" ISSN PRINT 1810-4967 ISSN ONLINE 1812-9358 PUBLISHER LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives” FOUNDER LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives” NUMBER OF REFERENCES NUMBER OF FIGURES NUMBER OF TABLES 29 0 4 © The author(s) 2019. This publication is an open access article. businessperspectives.org Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Volume 14, Issue 2, 2017 Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar(Bahrain), Babitha Rohit (India), Prakash Pinto (India) Testing of weak form BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES of efficient market hypothesis: evidence from the Bahrain Bourse LLC “СPС “Business Perspectives” Hryhorii Skovoroda lane, 10, Sumy, 40022, Ukraine Abstract www.businessperspectives.org Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that financial markets are “information- ally efficient”, implying that current prices fully reflect all available information. The present study aims at testing the weak form of market efficiency of the indi- vidual stocks listed on the Bahrain Bourse for the period 2011 to 2015. Weak form of EMH is tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, run test and autocorrelation test. The K-S test result concludes that in general the stock price movement does not follow random walk. The results of the runs test reveals that share prices of seven companies do not follow random walk. Autocorrelation tests reveal that share prices exhibit low to moderate correlation varying from negative to positive values. As the study shows mixed results, it is difficult to conclude the Received on: 2nd of April, 2017 weak form of efficiency of Bahrain Bourse. Accepted on: 11th of July, 2017 Keywords random walk, efficient market hypothesis, run test, autocorrelation test JEL Classification G100, G140 © Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar, Babitha Rohit, Prakash Pinto, 2017 Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar, Dr., INTRODUCTION Associate Professor, Department of Accounting and Finance, College of Business Administration & Assistant to the President for Accreditation Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that financial markets and Quality Assurance, Kingdom University, Bahrain. are “informationally efficient”, implying that current prices fully reflect all available information. According to Fama (1970), there Babitha Rohit, Assistant Professor, Department of Business are three forms of EMH. They are: “weak”, “semi-strong” and Administration, St. Joseph Engineering College, India. “strong”. Weak form states that prices already reflect all past public- ly available information. Semi-strong EMH states that price chang- Prakash Pinto, Dr., Professor and Dean, Department of Business es reflect past information, as well as reflect new public informa- Administration, St. Joseph Engineering College, India. tion. Strong EMH claims that prices instantly reflect even hidden or “insider” information. The present study tests the weak form of EMH of the individual stocks listed on the Bahrain Bourse for the period 2011 to 2015. Bahrain Stock Exchange established in 1987, officially began op- erations in 1989, with 29 listed companies and a manual trading This is an Open Access article, system. However, in 2010, Bahrain Bourse (BHB) was established distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non- as a shareholding company to replace Bahrain Stock Exchange. Commercial 4.0 International license, which permits re-use, distribution, The market capitalization of the Bourse at the end of 2015 was BD and reproduction, provided the 7, 199, 907, 825 with 46 listed companies. The Bahrain All-Share materials aren’t used for commercial purposes and the original work is Index lists shares under six sectoral indices: commercial banks, in- properly cited. vestment, insurance, services, industrial and hotels and tourism. 376 Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Volume 14, Issue 2, 2017 1. LITERATURE REVIEW of individual stocks. Using serial correlation test, Solnik (1973) investigated market efficiency for A study into the literature reveals large number 234 securities in eight major European stock mar- of publications having examined the existence of kets using daily prices. the EMH theory in various developed and unde- veloped markets with varying results (Ananzeh, Ang and Pohlman (1978) examined 54 stocks of 2014). Iqbal and Mallikarjunappa (2008, 2010, five stock exchanges of Japan, Singapore, Australia, 2011) studied on Indian Stock Market and found Hong Kong and the Philippines and concluded that Indian Stock Market is not efficient in weak that the markets are slightly efficient in the weak- and semi-strong form. est form. Awan and Subayyal (2016) studied six stock ex- Moustafa (2004) analyzed the weak form efficien- changes in Gulf region (Oman, UAE, Kuwait, cy of United Arab Emirates (UAE) stock market Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar) for the period by observing the behavior of stock prices. Three 2011 to 2015. The results provide evidence that years data were considered from October 2, 2001 the stock prices at the Gulf markets do not follow to September 1, 2003. Using nonparametric run the random walk model. Asiri (2008) measured test on 43 stocks of the Emirates market and the the performance of the Bahrain Stock Exchange study concluded that stocks didn’t follow the nor- (BSE) by applying the Dickey Fuller unit root tests, mal distribution. the ARIMA model, and exponential smoothing techniques. 2. RESEARCH GAP Dahel and Laabas (1999) compared the stock mar- kets of Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman. There have been very few studies (Gharaibeh Rao and Shankaraiah (2003) investigated the stock & Hammadi, 2013; Hawaldar, 2015; Hawaldar market efficiency and suggested strategies for Gulf 2016a; Hawaldar, 2016b; Hawaldar, Shakila, & Co-operation Council (GCC) stock markets. They Pinto, 2017) on Bahrain Bourse. This has lead the concluded that these markets were neither de- researchers to undertake the present study and veloped nor informationally efficient and recom- contribute to the existing literature on weak form mended that there must be better networking be- of market efficiency of Bahrain Bourse. The study tween these markets. tests the weak form efficiency of the EMH for -in dividual securities listed on the Bahrain Bourse Sharma (2005) tested the daily returns series of using run test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and au- Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) stock markets tocorrelation test. and reported that the returns follow a normal distribution. 3. OBJECTIVES Elango and Hussein (2007) examined market OF THE STUDY efficiency across the stock markets in the GCC countries using daily indices data from October Based on the review of literature, the following ob- 2001 to October 2006. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test jectives are set and hypotheses are developed to fill has been applied for analysis and the study re- the research gap in Bahrain Bourse. jects the null hypothesis that the returns follow a normal distribution for all seven markets. Run 1. To test the weak form efficiency of individual test has been used for randomness. It is con- stocks listed on Bahrain Bourse. cluded that the market is not efficient in its weak form. 2. To examine the randomness of individual stock prices. Very few studies (Solnik, 1973; Ang & Pohlman, 1978; Buttler & Malaikah, 1992; Rao & Shankaraiah, 3. To test the independence of individual stock 2003; Moustafa, 2004) have tested the efficiency price changes. 377 Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Volume 14, Issue 2, 2017 Hypotheses 2nn⋅ µ =12 +1. (2) nn+ H01: The individual stock prices follow a random 12 walk. 2 22nn12⋅⋅() nn 12 ⋅−− n 1 n 2 σ = 2 . (3) Ha1: The individual stock prices do not follow a ()()nn12+ ⋅ nn 12 +−1 random walk. The standard normal Z-statistic used to conduct a H02: The individual stock prices are efficient in run test is given by: weak form of efficient market hypothesis. Observed− Expected Z = . (4) Ha2: The individual stock prices are not efficient Variance in weak form of efficient market hypothesis. Kolmogrov-Smirnov goodness of fit test (K-S test): H03: The price changes in individual stocks are the K-S test is a nonparametric test and is used to independent. determine how well a random sample of data fits a particular distribution (Mobareket et al., 2008; Ha3: The price changes in individual stocks are Salam, 2013). not independent. maxFx()()−≤ Snn x D,α . (5) x 4. METHODOLOGY Autocorrelation: Autocorrelation is defined as a mathematical representation of the degree The present study uses daily prices of the compa- of similarity between a given time series and a nies listed in the Bahrain All Share Index. The pe- lagged version of itself over successive time in- riod of study is from 2011 to 2015. The sample con- tervals (Hamid et al., 2010). A higher value of sists of 43 companies listed on the Bahrain Bourse autocorrelation indicates greater correlation in for which data are available. values. Fama (1970) proposes that by using a less restrictive condition of submartingale sequence, The stock returns are defined as follows: low serial correlation may persist in an efficient market. Log pt Rt = , (1) m 2k Log P 2 pt−1 LB=⋅+ n() n 2,∑ χ (6) k −1 nk− where Rt is the return at time t , Log pt is the log- k arithmic price at time t and Log pt−1 is the loga- where P – auto-correlation coefficients rithmic at time t −1.
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