ANALYSIS

Sofia

BAROMETER Political parties in

GEORGI KARASIMEONOV, PhD (Editor) Volume 17, Issue 2, April-June 2017

The new government, made up of GERB and , seems stable at this stage. The participation in the cabinet of two co-chairs of the patriots is a guarantee for their close involvement in the country’s governance. At this stage, there are no more significant nega- tive reactions in Europe, due to the participation of nationalists in the government. Borisov’s foreign policy activity shows that in his third term of office he will try to strengthen his role on the international scene.

With its first action in parliament, the BSP has shown that it will want to be strong opposition which governments will have to bear in mind. The call for resignation of the President of the National Assembly was evidence of this. Cornelia Ninova continues with reshaping the party, showing firmness and consistency in positions regarding its future development.

A large number of the extraparliamentary parties in the right space are increasingly disin- tegrating. The intentions and calls for unification have been going on for years, but remain declarative. Mutual accusations of the failure in the parliamentary elections continue to be the focus of attention, which is a major obstacle to maintaining a normal and fair dialogue between the parties.

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BAROMETER / GEORGI KARASIMEONOV POLITICAL PARTIES IN BULGARIA Bulgaria

Contents 1. The political situation...... 2

1.1 Domestic policy...... 2

1.2 External and European Policy...... 3

1.3. The refugee crisis...... 5

2. Status and development of the main political parties...... 6 2.1.Social-democratic and other center-left parties ...... 6 2.1.1. BSP...... 6 2.1.1.1 Condition...... 6 2.1.1.2 Recommendations ...... 7 2.1.2. ABV and Movement 21...... 7 2.1.2.1 Condition...... 7 2.1.2.2 Recommendations...... 8 2.1.3. The “Bulgarian Social Democrats” Party...... 8 2.1.3.1 Condition...... 8 2.1.3.2 Recommendations...... 8

2.2. Center-right parties ...... 8 2.2.1. GERB ...... 9 2.2.2. ...... 9 2.2.3. DSB...... 9 2.2.4. „Yes, Bulgaria!“ ...... 11

2.3. Centrist parties ...... 11 2.3.1. MRF ...... 11 2.3.2. DOST ...... 12 2.3.3. „Volya“...... 12

2.4. Nationalist parties ...... 13 2.4.1. United Patriots ...... 13

2.5. Positions of the parties on foreign and European policy ...... 14

3. Public opinion ...... 14

4. Main conclusions and forecasts ...... 15

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1. The political situation Cabinet of President Plevneliev and Deputy Prime Minister in the two offices appointed 1.1. Domestic policy by him during his term as President. Tsetska The political situation in the past quarter Tsacheva, who was the chair of the National was mainly determined by the process of Assembly, was elected Minister of Justice, setting up the new government after the early and in the last presidential elections was parliamentary elections and its first steps nominated for this post by GERB. since its formation. Most GERB ministers from the second Immediately after the elections, it became cabinet of Borisov retain their posts in the clear that GERB would form a government third one. is again Minister with the United Patriots. Negotiations of Finance. will once continued for nearly a month, and the two again be responsible for tourism. Krasen formations insisted on agreeing first on the Kralev remains Minister of Youth and Sports. priorities of the new government and then on will be Minister of Transport, its staff. Although the party “Volya” (“Will”) Information Technology and Communications headed by businessman Veselin Mareshik for the third time. Temenujka Petkova returns gave indications that they would participate again as a minister in the Ministry of Energy. in the government with their ministers, they Surprisingly, , who for many were not invited to the final phase of the talks. years was Minister of Regional Development The third cabinet of started and Public Works, will be Minister in the its work in May. The National Assembly newly established ministry for the Bulgarian supported the government with the votes of Presidency of the EU Council in January 133 MPs from GERB, the United Parities and 2018. Her place in the regional ministry is MPs of “Volya”. BSP and MRF voted against taken by Nikolay Nankov, who was previously and will be opposition to the government. The Pavlova’s deputy. Minister of the Interior will government has four Deputy Prime Ministers. be Valentin Radev, who up to now was an MP from GERB, who was deputy of GERB and a member of the parliamentary prime minister in the previous GERB cabinet, committee on defense and security. Bisser again took up this post. Two of the co-chairs Petkov, a longtime expert in the field of social of the lower coalition partner of GERB - United policy and former manager of the National Patriots, Krassimir Karakachanov and Valery Social Security Institute, will be minister of Simeonov are also vice-presidents. VMRO Labor and Social Policy. Krassimir Valchev, leader is Deputy who for many years held the post of Secretary Prime Minister for Public Order and Security of the Ministry of Education is to be Minister and Minister of Defense. NSCS leader Valeri of Education and Science. The theatrical Simeonov was elected deputy prime minister director Boil Banov will be Minister of Culture. for economic and demographic policy, but will He was Deputy Minister at this ministry in not head a ministry. The Minister of Justice Borisov’s second cabinet. Rumen Porozhanov, in the second cabinet of Borisov, Ekaterina head of the State Fund «Agriculture» during Zaharieva, this time will be the Deputy Prime the GERB government will be Minister of Minister for Justice Reform and Minister of Agriculture, Food and Forestry. Of the quota of Foreign Affairs. Zaharieva was head of the United Patriots, besides the two Deputy Prime

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Ministers, Neno Dimov will be the Minister of 1.2 External and European policies Environment and Water, and Emil Karanikolov In the past quarter, the Bulgarian state is to be the Minister of Economy. The fact that has conducted an active foreign policy. both of them were listed as United Patriot’s President took part in the quota ministers came as a surprise, because NATO summit held in late May. The president until now their names have not in any way defended the position that engaging NATO in been associated with nationalist formations. the fight against terrorism and involving the Neno Dimov was Deputy Minister in the organization in the international anti-terrorist same ministry in Ivan Kostov’s government, coalition is an important solution that will and until recently he worked at the Institute reduce the flow of migrants to Europe. At the for Right Policy. Emil Karanikolov was head Brussels summit, President Radev confirmed of the Agency for Privatization and Post- that Bulgaria would increase its defense privatization Control. resources. Bulgaria has already committed to The agenda of the new government a gradual increase in the defense budget, with focuses on several priority areas. One of the target of 2% of GDP to be reached in 2024. them is education, which was mentioned as At the beginning of June, Prime Minister a key priority for GERB, with the envisaged Borisov made three significant cross-border doubling of teachers’ salaries by the end of visits, which had serious repercussions not the mandate. The minimum wage is also only in Bulgaria but also abroad. With visits set to reach BGN 650 and the average to to Paris, Berlin and Ankara within a week, be BGN 1,500 within the mandate, and the Borisov showed that his government will seek minimum pension is to be increased to BGN to lead an active foreign policy on the eve of 200. Among the priorities of the government the Bulgarian EU Council presidency in 2018. will be Bulgaria’s accession to Schengen Borisov’s first official visit abroad was and the preservation of the currency board the meeting with the new French President until accession of the country to the Single Emanuel Macron. The two talked about the Banking Union and the Eurozone. development of the relations between Bulgaria In the area of justice, the government and France and discussed the processes plans to adopt a new anti-corruption law in the European Union. The Bulgarian Prime by creating a single anti-corruption body Minister said that Macron has accepted his based on the Commission for the seizure of invitation to visit Bulgaria in August this year. illegally acquired property. Further adoption They also talked about the willingness of of amendments to the Code of Criminal Bulgaria to join the ERM2 mechanism in order Procedure, and the creation of a new order to join the Eurozone. Moreover, the Bulgarian for the prosecution of high-level corruption by Prime Minister raised the issue of Bulgaria’s passing these cases to the specialized court accession to Schengen, because the country and the prosecutor’s office is envisaged. The has long fulfilled the membership criteria and adoption of a new Penal Code as well as the has proved to be a reliable external border of introduction of e-government by the end of the Union in recent years. The Bulgarian Prime 2018 is also planned. In the field of health care Minister stressed that he met France on this starting phased de-monopolization of the issue and hopes that very soon this will find a National Health Insurance Fund is planned. positive solution.

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After his meeting with President Macron, without the active role of Turkey there will be Boyko Borisov left for Berlin, where he no effective security at the border. According was to meet German President Frank- to Borisov, during the referendum in Turkey Walter Steinmeier and Federal Chancellor and the there has been Angela Merkel. Highlights of the talks were some tension, due to «frayed nerves on bilateral relations and cooperation within many sides», but now everything has been the European Union. At his meeting with normalized. the German President Borisov said Bulgaria Borisov acknowledged the role of Turkey would continue to rely on German experience in reducing refugee pressure. He hopes to and support in priority areas for the country, normalize relations between the EU and Turkey such as the preparation of the Bulgarian in order to continue the good cooperation, presidency of the EU Council, security and which is in the interests of both sides. Borisov guarding the borders, investment and dual also said he would continue to insist on the education. At these talks, as well as during the continuation of the Refugee Agreement. meeting with the French president, Borisov He expressed his conviction that Bulgaria specifically emphasized Bulgaria’s desire to and Turkey could really be a benchmark for enter the Eurozone waiting room and to have good neighborliness. In his words during the the country join Schengen. Bulgarian presidency of the EU Council, it During his meeting with Chancellor Merkel, is important to make efforts in normalizing Prime Minister Borisov said that with its relations between the EU and Turkey. forthcoming presidency of the Council of the Borisov expressed his satisfaction that, European Union next year Bulgaria could do during the talks with the Turkish Prime much to help the Balkan countries that aspire Minister there was convergence on a number to EU membership. In his words, this will be of topics, including energy projects. Prime one of the main priorities of the Bulgarian Minister Yildirim mentioned the attempted presidency. Chancellor Merkel, for her part, coup in June last year, saying that «Europe said that Germany has always supported reacted with silence,» while Bulgaria openly reforms in the country, in which progress can condemned these actions. The Turkish PM already be seen. In addition, the Chancellor thanked Borisov for the support, remarking noted Bulgaria’s role in securing the border that after the coup attempt he visited Turkey, with Turkey, and although it is not a member demonstrating with the Turkish of Schengen, the country has significantly people, government and president. The improved border control. Borisov and Merkel Turkish Prime Minister also highlighted the discussed the measures that Bulgaria should forthcoming EU presidency of the EU Council take in combating trafficking in human beings in 2018, which, in his words, is important for and illegal migrants. Turkey’s European perspective. Ankara asked A week after his visit to Paris and Berlin, Borisov, during the Bulgarian Presidency, that Boyko Borisov visited Turkey, where he met visas for Turkish citizens for EU countries be President Recep Erdoğan and Prime Minister removed and for a clear roadmap for Turkey’s Binali Yildirim. Borisov said he had spoken entry into the EU to be drawn. to President Erdogan on various topics. The The increase in the foreign policy activity Bulgarian Prime Minister has stressed that of the Bulgarian government is also due

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to the forthcoming presidency of the EU between the BSP and the government. The Council, which will start on January 1, 2018. BSP has levied the accusation that, despite Therefore, the efforts of Borisov’s Cabinet the decision to build a two-line fence, in some will be focused not only on the preparations places it is actually one-line, which, according to for which a new ministry has already been the Socialists, is due to corruption. In addition, established, but also on strengthening the role of the BSP said that reports over recent months the country at European level, as the presidency should be checked that companies associated provides. This was also evident during these three with representatives of the United Patriots significant visits of the Bulgarian Prime Minister, participated in the construction of the fence. which outlined one of the main priorities that The BSP even appealed to the prosecutor’s Bulgaria will pursue during the presidency - on the office, and the State Security Agency (DANS) is role and the place of the Balkans in the context of currently investigating the case. European and regional security and in particular Despite a sustained reduction in the on integration of the Western Balkans into the EU. refugee wave, the problem of trafficking It was exactly the integration of the Western remains a challenge to the authorities in Balkans that was the subject during the visit the country. This was also confirmed by the of the new Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran serious accident on the Trakia highway in Zaev to . He had a meeting with Prime early June, killing 10 people in the case of Minister Borisov and President Radev. On the migrant trafficking to Western Europe. The Bulgarian side, it was emphasized that Sofia has investigation into the case found that this always supported the Euro-Atlantic perspective was an organized human trafficking group for , and it was agreed that the involving Bulgarian citizens and an Afghan long-awaited Neighborhood Neighborhood who had been detained. Agreement should be signed during the The issue of refugees will be at the visit of Prime Minister Borosov to Skopje on focus of the forthcoming changes to the so- August 2. This date was chosen symbolically, called Dublin Agreement. Bulgarian MEPs because it celebrated the anniversary of have united in the understanding that the the Ilinden-Preobrazhenie uprising. The two Dublin regulation on refugee problems is not Prime Ministers have agreed to celebrate the working effectively, and the new agreement festivities of common holidays and events that the will vote for in the history of the two countries. There was in the summer needs not just cosmetic, but symbolic significance in the presentation of significant changes to bring lasting results. flowers by the two Prime Ministers in front of The new asylum system is particularly the monument of the Bulgarian Tsar Samuil important for border countries such as in Sofia, which at the end of the tenth century Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, who are holding transferred the capital of the Bulgarian state to informal talks about the new rules on Ohrid. refugees. PES leader Stanishev also suggests that countries in the Western, Central and 1.3 The refugee crisis Eastern Mediterranean should not accept In this quarter the building of the last applications for registration of migrants from section of the fence along the Turkish border other Member States. Emil Radev of GERB continued. This issue has led to disputes and the Bulgarian MEPs from the Group

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of the European People’s Party offer their described the changes as clearing the responsibility to accept the countries to which pitch for the team of Cornelia Ninova. In his migrants apply for asylum and not countries words, «she is looking for new and faithful about to enter the EU for the first time. people, she wants to get signboards from the Executive Bureau under the label «Separating 2. State and development of major Functions». According to Mikov, however, a political parties double standard is seen, because some will preserve the parliamentary functions as well 2.1. Social Democratic and other center- as the functions in the Executive Bureau, while left parties others will not. The former BSP organizational 2.1.1. BSP secretary, Krasimir Yankov, criticized Kornelia 2.1.1.1. Condition Ninova openly, saying that the BSP did not Also during this quarter BSP leader, hear any opinion other than that of the party Cornelia Ninova, continued with the changes leader. He predicted that Ninova would not in the party. In mid-May, the BSP National have a full mandate at the head of the party Council adopted the proposed changes in because a leader must unite, not divide. And the Party’s Executive Bureau. Members of the Ninova does exactly that – she separates Executive Bureau were released: Krassimir the party. According to him, Ninova believes Yankov, Ivan Chenchev, Stoyan Mirchev, that by removing the recognizable members Alexander Simov and Vesela Lecheva. Kiril of the BSP leadership she is relieved of Dobrev chose to remain in the Executive dependencies, but this is rather an attempt to Bureau and leave parliament. eliminate internal-party competition. The newly elected members of the BSP The leader of BSP, Kornelia Ninova, will executive body proposed by Ninova are: the also be chair of the parliamentary group of mayor of , Vladimir Moskov, BSP for Bulgaria. The deputy chairs of the Atanaska Teneva from Plovdiv and Apostol group will be Anton Kutev, Dragomir Stoynev, Dimitrov from Varna. The party leadership Zhelyu Boychev and Krum Zarkov. Georgi remains as Stefan Danailov, Valery Zhablyanov, Turnovilyski, Kristian Vigenin and Philip Popov Dragomir Stoynev and Krum Zarkov. will be secretaries, and Elena Yoncheva will Cornelia Ninova will now have four be spokesperson of the group. deputies. The BSP National Council elected With their 80 MPs BSP are expected to be Stefan Danailov as Deputy Chairman of a strong opposition. This was evident in the the Public Policy Party. Deputy Chairman resignation of the President of the National responsible for party activity will be Kiril Assembly, Glavchev, who, with the vote, Dobrev. Vladimir Moskov was elected deputy maintained his position with only 4 votes in chairman of the Local Government, and favor. The request for Glavchev’s resignation Denitsa Zlateva, Deputy Prime Minister of was motivated by the fact that GERB MP Ognian Gerdjikov’s Office of Government, Spas Gurnevski called BSP «a non-Bulgarian will be Deputy Chairman of European Affairs socialist party». According to Kornelia and International Affairs. Vyara Emilova was Ninova, the Speaker of Parliament Dimitar elected as “election” secretary. Glavchev has not implemented the Rules of The former leader of BSP, , the National Assembly and has not punished

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Gurnevski for improper conduct. This scandal of backstage machinations in her business has shown that in this National Assembly we and would be uncompromising in the future will witness sharp clashes between those in when it came to the authority of the BSP. power and the opposition. With these actions, Ninova showed At the beginning of June the BSP adopted willingness and courage to uphold the a Code of Ethical Behavior for the members principles of transparency and openness of the parliamentary group. Members of she promised to follow in her election as BSP for Bulgaria are not allowed to use their party chair. At the same time, however, there official position for personal gain, privilege are more and more internal partisans and or discharge, conceal their illegal actions opponents, and this will be a great challenge or escape punishment. Deputies cannot in her work as a party leader. disclose or benefit for personal purposes from information received in their capacity 2.1.1.2. Recommendations as MPs. It is not allowed for left-wing MPs It is necessary for the Bulgarian Socialist to use official means or cars for personal Party (BSP) to continue with its strong trips in the country and abroad. The Code oppositional behavior without, however, of Ethics also includes special rules against leading to unprincipled confrontation. In a corruption and conflict of interest. party-party plan, a balance must be found The past quarter will also be remembered between change and dialogue in the party. for the scandal with one of the significant Going to extremes can create tension and names in BSP - businessman Georgi Gergov. controversy, and this will only weaken the This regards a meeting mediated by Gergov party. in his office between Chief Prosecutor Sotir Tsatsarov and the head of Overgas, 2.1.2. ABV and Movement 21 Sasho Dontchev. The two accused each 2.1.2.1. Condition other of trying to influence each other, as After the elections, ABV and Movement Donchev tried to get the Chief Prosecutor’s 21 have continued on their own path protection. He himself accused Donchev as of development. The two formations the owner of the Sega newspaper that the participated in an election coalition in order newspaper was used as a stand against to increase their chances of overcoming the the Chief Prosecutor. The fact that Gergov’s electoral barrier. Henceforth, they will have name was involved in this scandal caused to be re-evaluated not only regarding the pre- Cornelia Ninova to ask for his resignation as election campaign, but also their place, role a member of the BSP Executive Bureau. And and strategies for their development in the if it was not voted by the National Council, political life of the country. Ninova threatened to resign. Gergov reacted In ABV the election of a new chairman just sharply to Ninova’s request, saying that she before the election was presented as a desire had become chairman of the party with his for renewal of the party through a generational support and the votes he had secured at change of the elite in it and the putting faith the congress as leader of the Plovdiv BSP in new faces. This did not bring the expected organization. Ninova said she wanted to result, partly due to the short lead in which the change the party and remove the suspicions new leader Konstantin Prodanov had to unfold

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the campaign. After the election, Prodanov their party structures and be active in said that from now on, ABV would focus on attracting new supporters and members to change by trying to attract new, young people become the basis for a qualitative update to be involved in the cause of the party. In his of the party’s assets. On the other hand, the words, this is the path of ABV, his short-term two parties should make efforts to resume task as a leader is to strengthen grass roots dialogue with BSP and strengthen real, not party structures. In addition, ABC will act as a declarative, cooperation with other parties corrective of the management and will seek and organizations with a social-democratic to offer alternative policies. profile. Movement 21, headed by Tatiana Doncheva, has not yet taken stock of its 2.1.3. «Bulgarian Social Democrats» Party participation in the elections. In the past 2.1.3.1. Condition quarter, the leader of the movement Tatiana After not taking part in the early Doncheva has been a frequent guest on a parliamentary meetings held at the end of number of TV shows, where she continued to March, the party gave its support to Vessein defend one of her main concerns - the need for Mareshki’s «Volya», and during that quarter a fundamental change in the political system, the Bulgarian Social Democrats did not which, she says, the current government show any presence in the political life of the cannot do. Doncheva continues to uphold the country. In fact, there is no internal party position of radical reform in the prosecutor’s life, party representatives have no media office - one of the topical issues in public life, coverage, and the party site has long ceased especially in the context of scandals related to function. It would appear that the long-term to the Chief Prosecutor and the election of a participation in Coalition for Bulgaria has led new Supreme Judicial Council. to the deprivation of the party, which seems On the whole, Doncheva gives an to be unable to maintain a normal party life. unfavorable evaluation of the first steps of Boyko Borisov’s cabinet, saying the 2.1.3.2. Recommendations government is more concerned with PR The party must re-establish its internal than with real reforms, which he cannot party activity; it must strengthen its media expect from her. According to Doncheva, presence; it must express positions on major the government has no potential, just as the political issues and the country’s agenda; inexperienced leadership of the Ministry of it must seek dialogue with other left-wing Foreign Affairs makes a deep impression. She and social-democratic formations in order is of the opinion that in the complex regional to implement meaningful and meaningful and international situation headed by the initiatives. Foreign Ministry, there must be experienced diplomats, not people who have no experience 2.2. Center-right parties on the international scene. 2.2.1. GERB 2.1.2.2. Recommendations After the victory in the parliamentary ABV and Movement 21 need to strengthen elections and the formation of the third their work in building up and strengthening government of Boyko Borisov, GERB is in

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a consolidation phase. The success of the Deputy Chair of the National Assembly. election intensifies the interest in the party The chairman of the parliamentary group by younger sympathizers and this leads to of GERB, just as in the last National Assembly the expansion of membership, which was will be . The deputy chairs also reported by GERB Deputy Chairman of the parliamentary group will be MPs Tsvetan Tsvetanov. The success of GERB in Krasimir Velchev and Snezhana Dukova, and recent years is due to well structured local her secretary - Stanislav Ivanov. structures. The party is highly centralized and After Bulgaria did not have an EU internally homogeneous, playing a major role commissioner several months after Kristalina in strong mobilization during elections. Georgieva left, the government proposed the In the past quarter GERB was mobilized GERB MEP Maria Gabriel for the vacancy. to form the new government. The Party Gabriel, who previously had the family name Parliamentary Group will play a decisive role in Nedelcheva, has been an MEP for 10 years. providing stable parliamentary support to the She will occupy the area of «Digital Economy government in order to implement legislative and Digital Society». After a successful initiatives and promised reforms. hearing in the European Parliament, she is At the opening of the 44th National expected to take office officially next month. Assembly Tsvetan Tsvetanov outlined the main priorities of the GERB parliamentary 2.2.2. Reformist Block group. He said the main goal of the party After not making it to Parliament, the would be for the government to spend a full Reformist Block in practice is in a state of four-year term of office . In his words, talks on decay. coalition government take account of people’s UDF leader resigned as desire for center-right politics. Tsvetanov party Chairman. He said that he accepts it as said he needed not only a political but also his responsibility for the election defeat and a public consensus on the priorities for the the blame that the parties of the Reformist country. He has reassured the opposition block did not find a way to unite the traditional that GERB’s political profile is well-known right wing. Lukarski acknowledged that being and it is a guarantee that extreme forms of in government with GERB had brought only will not be allowed, but will follow disadvantages, since the Reformist block had a reasonable and pragmatic policy on the taken only ministries in the most difficult and national priorities of the country. Tsvetanov unreformed sectors. Lukarski is of the opinion pointed out as priorities for GERB the that one should find a way for new right continuation of the judicial reform, the reform wing unification in the interest of the right of education and raising teachers’ salaries, as wing voter, who has not been represented in well as the reform of the health care system the 44th National Assembly. In spite of the with the demonopolization of the Health Fund. resignation, Lukarski was re-elected Chairman Dimitar Glavchev from GERB was elected at the extraordinary National Conference of as Speaker of the National Assembly. In the the UDF in the middle of May. The outcome previous parliament he was the deputy of of the election left UDF with no subsidy and, . The party proposed that in addition, the party will have to give up its the Kardzhali MP be headquarters – the building it has used ever

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since the beginning of the democratic change opinion that this project has to develop and of this country – 134, Rakovski Street. be upgraded in the future in order to reach The leader of the Bulgaria of the Citizens real right-centrist unification. Movement (BCM), Meglena Kouneva, also After the fiasco of the elections Radan submitted her resignation and accepted the Kunev resigned from the leadership of the responsibility for the election defeat. She party. His position was taken by Atanas explained that, despite her resignation, she Atanasov, former Deputy Chairman of the party would remain closely involved with party and former Director of the Counterintelligence operations. Until a new Chairman is elected Service during the time of Ivan Kostov’s the party decided for two of the young MPs in government. Having resigned, Radan Kunev the previous legislature to share the position became Deputy Chairman of the party. A major – Dimiter Delchev and Antoniy Trenchev. competitor of Atanasov for the presidency of After the resignation of the leadership of the the party was Svetoslav Malinov MEP, who party, the processes of decay in BCM seem lost by only a couple of votes. unstoppable. A number of representatives The election of Atanasov as DSB leader of the local structures left the party, and in will hardly bring about any change in the the middle of May, even the newly elected party. He is part of the party status quo, Co-chairman left the party in the middle of has always supported the former leadership May. The motives for his resignation were and has taken part in taking the major that there is mimicry in the party, not a real decisions in it. Many define Atanasov as a change, particularly after the decision to straightforward person, not very dialogical postpone the congress of BCM in spite the and capable of compromise. These qualities plans to hold it in June. Another significant do not correspond to the goals of DSB – to person of BCM from the former legislature find a way for unification with the other non- also left the party – Nestimir Ananiev – with parliamentary right wing parties. motives very similar to those of Trenchev. The In one of his public appearances after his current events in the BCM indicate that the election as DSB Chairman, Atanasov attacked future of the party remains unclear – with no the Yes Bulgaria! party with Hristo Ivanov in subsidy and no resources, the prospects are the leading role, saying that they are where the extremely negative. reasons for the right-wing non-representation The remaining parties from the Reformist in parliament should be sought, because Block are also in a very difficult state – BAPU the initial idea had been for DSB and Yes, and BNM. Bulgaria! to run together. Atanasov declared that his main goal would be to form a strong 2.2.3. DSB right wing alternative to GERB and the current The loss of the election resulted in government. He stated that in the short changes in DSB. The new project - New term he would work for DSB strengthening republic, involving DSB and other smaller and for the preparation of the party for the right wing formations, which ran in the forthcoming local elections. elections, demonstrated that it cannot be The last reshuffle at the top of DSB successful formula in this shape. Still, former demonstrated that there would be no real DSB Chairman Radan Kunev voiced his change in the party. DSB remains an introvert,

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encapsulated party, with no clear strategy and “Yes, Bulgaria” came out with a declaration vision for development. The outcome of the condemning Andrey Navalny’s arrest in recent parliamentary elections showed that Russia. The declaration states that the party the party will continue losing electoral impact “joins the position of the EU condemning in the future too. the mass violations of human rights by the authoritarian regime of Vladimir Putin and 2.2.4. “Yes, Bulgaria!” urges the Bulgarian government and President After the elections, “Yes, Bulgaria!” lost its Radev to take a clear public position in the focus and stays outside the scope of public same direction. attention. In spite of the good election result for a newly established political party, “Yes, 2.3. Centrist Parties Bulgaria!” faces many challenges. First, the party leadership with Hristo Ivanov at the top 2.3.1. MRF must concentrate their efforts on party action Despite DOST getting nearly 3% of the – establishing local party structures, attracting votes, the pre-term parliamentary elections new supporters and membership, widening were something of a victory for MRF, as the the scope of messages, finding dialogue with party demonstrated maximum mobilization other parties and organizations with similar and did not allow its main competitor for the ideas. At this stage the impression remains, votes of the Turkish minority to be represented that “Yes, Bulgaria!” restricts itself to one- in parliament. off initiatives related to appeals for judicial It is obvious that MRF must reassess its reforms, criticizing the status-quo, etc. which, political activities over the past years. The however, do not result in an upgrade of the party has fallen into political isolation and it party in a structural or organizational aspect. was seen during the campaign when the two At the beginning of June, the Political main parties – GERB and BSP – categorically Council of “Yes, Bulgaria!” promulgated a rejected the possibility of a coalition with declaration repeating some of the priorities MRF. The leadership of the party made comprising the core of their recent pre- an attempt to use the situation with the election campaign. The party declared as its appearance of DOST and to brush up its paramount task the defense of the principles of image. MRF stated on many occasions that the democratic legal state-rule of law, division they were a nationally responsible party that of powers, independence of the judiciary, defends Bulgarian national interest, unlike and guarantees for human rights. The party the party newly established by Lyutvi Mestan, announced themselves as opposition to the criticized as a conduit of the interests of the current political status quo, represented in Ankara regime. the 44th National Assembly, as well as the Despite the efforts to improve its image, “fascistoid tendencies” in the parliamentary MRF was left in isolation and will be in majority and the government. The party opposition in this parliament too. At the insists on guarantees for real participation in opening session of the National Assembly drafting the European agenda – a pro-active in a declaration on behalf of the MRF EC presidency and a clear vision for Bulgaria’s parliamentary group Mustafa Karadayi stated EU membership. that MRF will not support the government

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due to extreme nationalists being part of it. appearance of Mestan was immediately after In his words, the division of society and the the elections, when he insisted that they be language of hatred will destroy democracy, declared null and void. Despite of the appeals trust in the institutions and statehood as a of Mestan, no institution sent a request to whole in the long run. He believes that it is the Constitutional Court for the annulment of necessary to unite and bring back normality to the elections. Mestan stated that he would politics and state governance. Karadayi is of turn to the European Human Rights Court in the opinion that a new model of governance is Strasbourg. required, as well as creating a majority based In this quarter the tension between MRF on values in order to guarantee security and and DOST was visible too. Thousands of stability of the country and a decent place activists of MRF booed their former leader in the Euro-Atlantic structures of which Lyutvi Mestan in a rally marking the May Bulgaria is a member. That model cannot be events in 1989 in Dzhebel. Mestan defined provided by a majority where nationalists that provocation and the MRF leadership, who base their policy on fear and speech of in their turn, called him a “traitor”. Later on, hatred take part. Karadayi underscored the Mestan declared that he will request that opportunities which the Bulgarian Presidency the May events should be made part of the of the EC opens to this country. Therefore it is official holiday calendar in Bulgaria and that important to invest efforts into its successful they should be marked at the appropriate realization. state level because, to put it in his words, “the The MRF parliamentary group will self-sacrifice and the example of the heroes comprise 25 MPs. The whip will be the party of 1989 are not only for the natural rights of leader Mustafa Karadayi, and deputy whips the Turkish and Muslim minorities, but for – Yordan Tsonev, Halil Letifov and Hamid Bulgarian freedom and democracy.” Hamid, Adlen Shefked will be the secretary of the group. 2.3.3. Volya (Will) Angel Isaev MP, who made it to Parliament “Volya”, with businessman Veselin due to the high number of preferential votes Mareshki as its, leader formed a parliamentary only because his ranking – 9, coincided group of 10 MPs. Much to the surprise of with the number of the party ballot – 9 was many people, Mareshki became one of the expelled from the MRF parliamentary group deputy Speakers of the National Assembly. after refusing to leave the parliament despite The parliamentary group comprises unknown the leadership appeal for him to do so. In this names, the majority of whom are employees way Isaev will be an independent MP and he of companies owned by Mareshki. As early stated that will support the government of as after the elections “Volya” expressed GERB and the United Patriots. readiness to become part of the government with some representatives, but – as was 2.3.2. DOST to be expected - GERB did not invite them. Over the last quarter, DOST and its leader Regardless of that, “Volya” supported the new Lyutvi Mestan came out of the focus of the government of Boyko Borisov when voting public eye. This was due to the defeat of for the structure and the composition of the the party in the elections. The only public Council of Ministers in the Parliament.

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In its first steps in the 44th National leaders of national agencies. Assembly, “Volya” demonstrated some Involving and Krasimir opportunism in their behavior. On the one Karakachanov as Deputy Prime Ministers hand, the party declared its support for the aims at clearer engagement of the United government, but on the other – they voted Patriots with the government, the goal being with the opposition in the failed attempt to more stability of the governance from the impeach the Speaker of the National Assembly point of view of relations between coalition – Glavchev. This, however, seems to be a partners. Boyko Borisov followed a similar well thought-out strategy. In this way “Volya” strategy in his relations with the Reformist proved in practice that it will have a decisive Block in the previous term of office, when role in key votes and thus becomes a welcome the leaders of the various parties became partner for the parties in government, as well government ministers. Unlike the Reformist as for the opposition. Block, Borisov had regarded the United Prosecutor General Sotir Tsatsarov Partners as a more predictable partner in his requested from the National Assembly to previous government and this is why now deprive Vesselin Mareshki of his MP immunity the expectations are to have synchronized due to a currently ongoing court case for and uniform action between the two political racketeering and inflicting injuries. Mareshki forces, at least during the first half of the term gave up his immunity himself, saying that it of office. is in his interest for that matter to be closed The Parliamentary group of the United as quickly as possible and that his name be Patriots comprises 24 MPs. After the leaders cleared. He declared once again that he is of VMRO and NFSB became part of the innocent and that will be found so in court. government, the leader of “Ataka” became the whip. His deputies will be 2.4. Nationalist Parties Valentin Kasabov and Iskren Veselinov, and Boris Yachev, Desislav Chukolov and Yulian 2.4.1. United Patriots Angelov will be secretaries. With United Patriots being part of the third Despite the expectations of serious government of Boyko Borisov, it is for the reaction on the part of the EPP with regard first time in the most recent history of this to the participation of nationalists in the country that nationalist formations officially GERB government, no official critical reaction have become part of the government. The followed, and Boyko Borisov himself denied first GERB and Boyko Borisov government any criticism on that topic being voiced during was supported by “Ataka” at the beginning his meetings abroad. His words were that this of the term of office. In the previous National issue was not even raised by his European Assembly the Patriotic Front, comprising partners. The only letter that became public NFSB and VMRO, supported the cabinet was the reply of Manfred Weber to Petar without being part of it with ministers. Now, the Korumbashev MEP (BSP), stating that EPP United Patriots are an official partner of GERB has always defended European values and in the government with their representatives does not accept partnership with nationalists. in the central power at the level of ministers, GERB disregarded the letter, saying that deputy ministers, regional governors and it was a manipulation and insinuation on

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the part of the opposition. Manfred Weber that the main parties in this country unite himself explained on Twitter saying that he around the idea of the importance of this “sharply condemns any manipulations of his country’s Presidency of the EU Council words”, adding that Boyko Borisov and his in 2018. There is consensus among the government are working for “a good reputation political parties on that. There are still and stability in Bulgaria”. discussions going on regarding the priorities Regardless of that, the criticism of the of the presidency. Strengthening regional opposition and the intellectual circles in Bulgaria and economic cooperation, as well as the aimed at the participation of the United Patriots EU integration of the Western Balkans are in the government is still ongoing. Concerns priorities around which all political parties were voiced that the participation of the United stand united, at this stage. Patriots in the government during Bulgaria’s EC There are some nuances regarding Presidency will undermine the confidence of President Radev’s invitation to Putin to the other member states in Bulgaria and will visit this country on the occasion of the in no way work in the interest of the positive 140th anniversary of Bulgaria’s Liberation. image of the country. The concerns are that The non-parliamentary right wing parties the United Patriots are an unpredictable declared themselves against this idea, partner and could create additional problems whereas the parliamentary represented during the Presidency. parties seemed to approve of it. The United Patriots came up with two Regional Governors – of the Sofia Metropolitan 3. Public Opinion Area and Sofia – Region. Former “Ataka” A Gallup poll, carried out at the MP Nikolay Pehlivanov became Regional beginning of May, indicates that the third Governor of Sofia Metropolitan and his party Boyko Borisov government started its term fellow Iliyan Todorov became Governor of with 32% confidence. They had a similar Sofia Region. percentage of confidence in the government The new regional governor of Sofia during their previous term of office. Lack of Region proposed to the President to rename confidence is at 55% for the time being, and Musala Summit to St. Ivan Rilski with the is slightly lower than usual over the past motive that the name of the summit is of year, which was over 60%. The 44th National Turkish-Arab linguistic origin. A similar Assembly started with 24% confidence and proposal for changing the name of the 66% lack of confidence, which demonstrates highest summit on the Balkan Peninsula was that Parliament remains one of the least submitted on several occasions to President approved institutions in this country. Plevneliev during his term of office, but was Gallup’s poll researches also the levels rejected. This shows that in the future too, the of optimism and the expectations of the United Patriots will focus their attention on people for the development of this country. typically national-populist initiatives. 30% of the respondents are optimistic for the direction this country is going in and 2.5. Positions of the Parties on Foreign 53% express pessimism. Although it is the and European Policy tradition for pessimism to prevail, in recent A positive trend after the elections is months there has been a certain upward

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trend in the positive assessments. spectrum who were left outside parliament – ABV, Movement 21 and Party of Bulgarian 4. Main Conclusions and Forecasts Social Democrats remained in the periphery of 1. The new government of GERB and the public attention. They lack political initiatives United Patriots seems stable at this stage. on issues of importance to this country. It is The participation of two of the Co-Chairmen necessary to set the emphasis on the work of the Patriots in the Cabinet is a guarantee inside the parties and on developing their local for their close involvement in the governance structures. In order for them to have a future, of this country. At this stage, there are no it is also important to restart the dialogue significant negative reactions in Europe for with BSP in the left sphere of the political and nationalists’ participation in the government. find ways for common political initiatives. The foreign political activity of Prime Minister 4. After the electoral victory GERB is Borisov shows that in his third term of consolidated as a party. All the resources office he will try to strengthen his role on of the party and its parliamentary group the international scene – particularly in the are focused on guaranteeing stability of context of the situation on the Balkans and government and support for legislative the tense relations between the EU and Turkey. reform and priorities of the government. The This activity is related to the forthcoming EC party has carefully divided its resources – in Presidency of Bulgaria next year. Actually, executive authorities, as well as in parliament. this will be one of the focuses of the efforts The main government level and capacity of of the government in the coming months. The GERB in the executive have been kept, the presidency is an exceptional opportunity for majority of the ministers from the previous Bulgaria to strengthen its role at a European governments of Boyko Borisov kept their line level, and present itself in positive light. responsibilities, which guarantees continuity. 2. With their first actions in Parliament Despite the appearance of some new faces BSP showed that they would want to be strong in the parliamentary group of the party, the opposition, which the government would have presence and the role of Tsvetan Tsvetanov to take into consideration. Proof of that was is an important factor for the closeness the demand for a resignation of the Speaker and discipline in the group for providing of the National Assembly. parliamentary support to the government and Kornelia Ninova continues the renewal of for legislative initiative that are important to the party showing hardness and a consistent the party. approach as regards the future development 5. Many of the non-parliamentary parties of the party. However, at the same time, the from the right wing are becoming more and negative attitudes among some of the party more disintegrated. The intentions and the activists who had been in leading positions calls for unity have been going on for years before have become stronger. For Ninova but remain just declarations. The mutual it is important to strike a balance between accusations for the failure in the parliamentary dialogue and the change she wants to elections are still overwhelming, which is the achieve, otherwise internal turbulence among main obstacle to maintaining normal and the leading elite of the party is possible. honest dialogue between the parties. With 3. The other smaller parties in the left the election of a new Chairman in DSB –

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Atanas Atanasov, the status quo in the party party defending Bulgarian national interest, prevailed and it will be very difficult for it to and not the interest of foreign countries, part with the encapsulation they have put which DOST are accused of. themselves in over the past years. BCM is 7. “Volya” led by businessman Veselin also in a severe crisis. UDF reelected Lukarski Mareshki is a new formation with no political as a leader but there is a lack of ideas there experience. The party supported the cabinet too. The new formation of Hristo Ivanov “Yes, when it was voted but it supported the Bulgaria!” still behaves like a pressure group opposition too, when they demanded the with a priority on judicial reform, rather than a resignation of the Speaker of the National party covering the whole spectrum of political Assembly Dimiter Glavchev. These actions of messages. The party has no clear position on Volya show that the party will try and show many issues. the government and the opposition alike that 6. MRF positioned itself as opposition to it might have a decisive role in certain votes, the government, because of the participation despite its mere 10 MPs. of nationalists in the latter. DOST remains the 8. With involving United Patriots in main opponent of MRF. After not managing the government of Boyko Borisov it is the to overcome the election barrier, it vanished first time that nationalists in Bulgaria have from the public space. This will be used by officially become part of the government. MRF in order to restore the support among Although they are trying to demonstrate an the Turkish minority in this country and the improved image and more moderation, the emigrants to Turkey the majority of whom United Patriots might deliver some surprises. voted in favor of DOST. MRF still faces the At this stage at least, it seems that they will image dilemma related to the participation of be firm in their support for the government, Dilyan Peevski in their parliamentary group. even more so, now that Valeri Simeonov and The competition with DOST was used by the Krasimir Karakachanov are Deputy Prime party to show itself as a nationally responsible Ministers.

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About the editor: Imprint

Prof. PhD Georgi Karassimeonov is a lecturer at the University Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Office Bulgaria “St. Kliment Ohridski” and Director of the Institute for Political 97 Knyaz Boris I Str. | 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria and Legal Studies. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. Responsible: Regine Schubert | Director, Office Bulgaria Tel.: +359 2 980 9747, Fax +359 2 980 9747 http://www.fes.bg

Orders: [email protected]

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The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organizations for which the authors work.

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