The World Catastrophe Reinsurance Market Steep Peaks Overshadow Plateaus 2006 Contents Contents 1 Foreword 2 Executive Summary 3 Introduction 9 North America 10 United States 20 Canada 23 Asia Pacific 24 Japan 30 Australia and New Zealand 33 Southeast Asia 37 Republic of Korea 39 Taiwan 43 Europe 45 United Kingdom 51 France 54 Germany 57 Austria 59 Italy 61 Nordic Region 63 The Netherlands 66 Belgium 69 Switzerland 71 Central and Eastern Europe 74 Portugal 77 Turkey 79 Latin America and Caribbean 80 Mexico 82 Chile 83 Peru 85 Caribbean Region 88 Africa 89 South Africa 93 Namibia 95 The Last Word 96 Appendix A: Government Catastrophe Programs for Natural Hazards 103 Appendix B: Global Terror Insurance Market Survey 109 Appendix C: Summary of Catastrophe Bond Transactions 114 Recent Guy Carpenter Publications of Note Foreword 1 Foreword The World Catastrophe Reinsurance Market is a study of property catastrophe reinsurance markets in 22 countries and four regions, representing more than 90 percent of the worldwide market for catastrophe reinsurance. Each chapter reviews catastrophe exposures and the availability of insurance from either private or government sources to cover losses from catastrophes. We also summarize respective market conditions in catastrophe reinsurance. This report takes into account natural catastro- phes caused by such perils as typhoons and earthquakes, as well as the major new peril of the early 21st century, namely terrorist acts. This past year was one for the record books, with insured losses reaching USD83 billion – about 70 percent higher than the prior record of USD48 billion in 2004. It was also a year of extremely hard market conditions for some cedents. One promising development in 2006 has been the way in which the market differentiated between highly exposed zones from Mexico to Maine, and most other regions of the world. Rather than rush to the exits from the catastrophe reinsurance picture show, reinsurers in most parts of the globe stood their ground. They distinguished between areas where there was clear evidence of increased risk and areas where perceived risks remained relatively stable. In brief, the market generally reacted in a highly intelligent and discerning manner. Such a measured approach on the part of the industry is unique in itself and a hopeful sign for the future. In preparing this document, we engage the services of our colleagues around the globe, and we gratefully acknowledge their contributions. We also thank the organizations that graciously allowed us to reproduce their material. Each year that we publish this report, we endeavor to deliver more insightful research. We hope this new issue provides added value to those interested in the global reinsurance catastrophe marketplace, and we welcome your comments and suggestions for future reports. David Spiller President and Chief Executive Officer 2 Executive Summary Executive Summary Steep Peaks Overshadow Plateaus World ROL Index* 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 *1990=100 • The world rate on line (ROL) average index increased by 32 percent in 2006. However, this worldwide average was overwhelmingly influenced by the extreme rate peaks experienced in those countries that absorbed the brunt of the losses from the record storms of 2005. Rate increases in the United States and Mexico averaged 76 percent and 129 percent, respectively, compared with only a 2 percent increase for the rest of the world. The Nordic region, which was hit by winter storm Erwin in January 2005, also experienced price increases averaging 20 percent, included in the 2 percent increase worldwide. PERCENT CHANGE IN RATE ON UNITED STATES MEXICO REST OF WORLD LINE - 2006 VS. 2005 % INCREASE 76.2 129 2 • The market was discriminating in its 2006 pricing, not only in terms of countries, but also in terms of regions within countries. Cedents in the United States with little or no Gulf or East Coast exposure experienced fairly stable conditions. Indeed, some programs were renewed at lower than expiring rates. • Markets are reacting to the general perception that the frequency and severity of North Atlantic storms have increased greatly, thus exposing coastal regions of the United States, Mexico and the Caribbean to more frequent and more severe losses. • The major modeling companies have revised or re-interpreted their tropical storm models accordingly, leading to higher probable maximum losses (PMLs) for cedents at the same return period. For example, one model change led to increased modeled annualized insurance losses of 40 percent on average across the Gulf Coast, Florida and the southeast United States, compared to losses based on long-term 1900-2005 historical average hurricane frequencies. • There was increased pressure from A.M. Best and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) on capital adequacy and the management of catastrophe exposures. • In the United States, the federal backstop program for terror cover, the Terrorism Risk and Insurance Act (TRIA), was renewed with minor modifications for an additional two-year period through 2007, relieving much of the pressure from policyholders and primary insurance companies. Introduction 3 Introduction Following the record storm losses of 2004/2005, the property and casualty reinsurance markets took divergent paths across the globe. The world rate on line increased by 32 percent in 2006. However, this increase was due almost solely to the 76 percent increase in the index for the United States. When we exclude the U.S. figure, as in the following chart, the price index shows only a slight increase in 2006. The story of 2006 was really a story of the U.S. market, with only small ripples felt in other countries. World ROL Excluding U.S. Index* 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 *1994 = 100 Within the United States, the 2005 hurricane season constituted a paradigm shift for insurers and reinsurers. This shift reflected a number of factors, including the record hurricane losses, changing perceptions on North Atlantic storm activity, modeling changes and re-evaluations by rating agencies. Record Losses in 2005 The estimated global insured property losses currently stand at USD83.4 billion for 2005, with USD72.6 billion of the insured losses occurring in North America. That figure could prove to be conservative. According to estimates by Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS), the upper range of U.S. losses from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma could be as high as USD79 billion. The following chart depicts the increasing level of losses owing to catastrophes. The top 10 costliest hurricanes have all occurred within the past 10 years, with seven of those occurring within the last two years. Global Insured Catastrophe US$ (Billions) Losses (Constant 2005 $) 90 80 Source: Swiss Re, sigma No. 2/2006 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 4 Introduction The storms of 2005 left a disproportionate burden on the reinsurance industry. Reinsurers have reported estimated losses of USD40 billion from global catastrophes for the year. More than 50 percent of Katrina’s total insured losses of USD38 billion were ceded to reinsurers. While detailed data are not available for previous years, the normal reinsured share is believed to be less than one-third of total losses. Global Catastrophe Loss to Reinsurers Primary Insurers (USD43 billion) Reinsurers (USD40 billion) 48% 52% Given that reinsurers took such a huge financial hit from the catastrophes of 2005, it is surprising that there was not a hard global property market in 2006. Part of the explanation is that new capital entered the industry and alleviated some of the pressure. Many investors viewed the anticipated price increase and potential capacity shortages as compelling motivators to enter the market. As of December 30, 2005, more than USD20 billion in additional capital was raised by new or existing companies during the months following the hurricane season. The following chart provides details on some of the more significant new entrants to the reinsurance industry in 2005. NEW MAJOR ENTRANTS - 2005 COMPANY SPONSOR CAPITALIZATION BEST RATING Amlin Bermuda, Ltd. Amlin $1,000,000,000 A- Ariel Reinsurance Company, Ltd. Blackstone Group; Texas Pacific $1,000,000,000 A- Group; Thomas H Lee Group Flagstone Reinsurance Ltd. West End Capital $715,000,000 A- Harbor Point Re Ltd. Chubb; Stone Point Capital $1,300,000,000 A Hiscox Insurance Company (Bermuda) Ltd. Hiscox, plc $500,000,000 A- Lancashire Insurance Company Ltd. IPO; Cypress; Capital Z $1,000,000,000 A- New Castle Reinsurance Company Ltd. Citadel $500,000,000 A Validus Reinsurance Ltd. Aquiline Capital; Goldman Sachs; $1,000,000,000 A- Vestar; New Mountain; Merril Lynch Introduction 5 In 2005, we also witnessed a more prominent role for so-called “sidecar” investment vehicles. A sidecar carrier essentially attaches itself to an existing reinsurance writer by providing capacity. Sidecars constitute an efficient way for investors to participate in a rising market. SIDECAR ARRANGEMENTS 2005-2006 SIDECAR ARRANGEMENTS 2005/2006 SPONSOR Baypoint Re Ltd. Harbor Point Cyrus Reinsurance Ltd. XL Capital, Highfields Capital Flatiron Re Ltd. Arch Capital, Goldman Sachs Helicon White Mountains Petrel Re Ltd. Validus, First Reserve Corp Rockridge Re West End Capital, Montpelier Starbound Re Ren Re Further, investors increased their exposure to insurance risk by increasing their purchases of catastrophe bonds, as shown in the following chart. The catastrophe bond market in 2006 is already at record levels, both in terms of number of transactions and risk capital.