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A Proposed Computer-Assisted Decision Making System for the Hellenic Navy Decision Makers

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A Proposed Computer-Assisted Decision Making System for the Hellenic Navy Decision Makers Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1987-03 A proposed computer-assisted decision making system for the Hellenic Navy decision makers Athanasopoulos, Haralabos Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/30408 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCIIOOL Monterey, California THESIS A PROPOSED COMPUTER-ASSISTED DECISION NAI: I NG SYSTEf·l FOR THE HELLENIC NAVY DECISION MAKERS by Haralabos Athanasopoulos March 1987 Thesis Advisor D. E. Neil Co-hdvisor M. L. Hitchell iwr1wl:l.&1" Eii st.l'islSeiePl aptly ae eli:! ••'as ey 6l:ll'el! iYite~ae~t., Gees 043, t4svsl Postgradl:1ate School, l10nterey G.\ 9:391:3 SOOO, P4areh 1907, or lti~her 000 al:ttholity. gi§TR~~TIQN NQTI6E Qest~o) ~y aAy ffietho~ that will ~Ie(e"t iiseleswpe af eSAteAts er reeeAstrijetio" of the doe~me"t. DOWNGRADED APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY. March 31, 2009 SUBJECT: Change in distribution statement for A Proposed Computer-Assisted Decision Making System for the Hellenic Navy Decision Makers – March 1987. 1. Reference: Athanasopoulos, Haralabos. A Proposed Computer-Assisted Decision Making System for the Hellenic Navy Decision Makers. Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Operations Research, March 1987. UNCLASSIFIED [Further distribution only as directed by Superintendent, Code 043, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA 93943-5000, March 1987, or higher DoD authority]. 2. Upon consultation with NPS faculty, the School has determined that this thesis is approved for public release and that its distribution is unlimited, effective March 30, 2009. University Librarian Naval Postgraduate School http://www.nps.edu THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK SECURI TY CLASSIFI(A t'ON O~ tHIS PAGE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE la REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION , b. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED Za SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 1 DISTRI8UTlON', AVAILABILITY OF REPORT Fur~fier dis~riBtl~ioft only a~ Zb DECLASSIFICATION I DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 043 4 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 6<1 NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b OFFICE SYMBOL 7a NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION (II dppl,uble) Naval postgraduate School 55 Naval Postgraduate School 7b. ADDRESS (City, Sure, .ndllP Code' Monterey, California 93943-5000 ~onterey, California 93943-5000 8a NAME OF FUNDING I SPONSORING 8b OFFICE SYM80L 9 PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZA TION (If 4ppliubleJ 8e ADORE SS (C,ty, Srdre, dnd liP Code) 10 SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TAS/( WORK uNIT ELEMENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO , 1 TITLE (Include Securrt'( .gds.slficdr,on) A PROPOSED COMPUTER-ASSISTED DECISION MAKING SYSTEM FOR TSE HELLENIG NAVY DECISION MAKERS 12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Athanasopoulos, Haralabos '3d TYPE OF REPORT. 113b TIME COvERED 14 DATE OF REPORT (Y.." Month, OilY) lis PAGE COUNT 1,Master's Thesls FROM TO 11987 March I 104 '6 SlJPPLEMENTARY NOTATION , 7 COSA TI CODES 18 SUBJECT TERMS (Cont,nue on 'everte If neceud'Y dnd Ident,fy by block num~,) GROUP SUB,GROU P Decision systems, Computer-assisted, Culture Institutional military, optimization. 9 ~BS TRACT (Continue on reverte If n"eUd'Y dnd IdentIfy by bilxk num~,) The Hellenic Navy currently avoids the use of computers in all functional areas except for routine bookkeeping. Some individual, societal cultural and institutional military factors that influence this attitude are explored. To correct this situation, it is proposed that a staff Information Systems Officer specialty be established, capable of creating the interface between the decision maker and modern computer systems. A computer-assisted decision making system is proposed that can be used by ,the Hellenic Navy decision maker. FInally, three representative problems are proposed and solved using such system, to demonstrate the power of Imodern computer-assisted decision making. 20 DS ~R!3UTIONI AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 2' ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION lZJ i..'IIJCLASSIFIEDIUNLlMITED 0 SAME AS RPT o OTIC USERS lIb TELEPHONE (Include A,.. CodeJlne OFfl(E SYMBOL 408-646-2419 55Ni DO FORM 1473,84 MAR 83 APR edition may be used until e_hausted SECURITY CLASSIFI(A TION OF THIS PAGE All other edItions a'e obsolete 1 SECU..ITY CLASSIP'ICATION OF THIS .-AGE (1'11- D••"".,-4 1. Distribution (cant): Na""al Postgraduate Gefioel, Hoftterey, CA 93943 5889, Harefi 1987, or hieJher DOD a1:l'tfiori'ty. DOWNGRADED APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE S· N 0102- LF· 014. 6601 2 SlECU",TY CLA'I"'CATION 0' THIS .-AGlE(ft." D.'. Illt'.,.d) DOWNGRADED APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE .Fttrther ei!ftrietttieft &ftly 8S eireetee ey Sttl'erintendelH, Code 0=13, ?of., val Postgr aduate Sehe61, M6l'Uerey CA 93943 5000, Mareh 1987, 6r hisher 000 fltlthoiit}. A Proposed Computer-assisted Decision Making System for the IIellenic :\avy Decision ~(akers by Haralabos Athanasopoulos Lieutenant Comr<nander, Hellenic ~a\'y Il.S., Hellenic Naval Academy, 1969 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIE?\'CE I~ OPERAnONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGR.ADUATE SCHOOL ~[arch 1987 Author: Hara1abos Athanasopoulos Approved by:-----------"'-f=---o...--;,...........,.,.--.;r;---.---;-,......--------­ D. E. :\eil, Thesis Advisor M. L. \;litchell, co-Advisor Peter Purdue, Chairman, Department of Operations Research Kneale T. Marshall, Dean of Information and Policy ScienceS 3 :: j. .'<:,. ABSTRACT The Hellenic Navy currently avoids the use of computers in all functional areas except for routine bookkeeping. Some individual, societal, cultural and institutional military factors that influence this attitude are explored. To correct this situation, it is proposed that a staff Information Systems OfTicer specialty be established, capable of creating the interface benveen the decision maker and modern computer systems. A computer-assisted decision making system is proposed that can be used by the Hellenic Navy decision maker. Finally, three representative problems are proposed and solved using such system, to demonstrate the power of modem computer-assisted decision making. 4 THESIS DISCLAIMER The reader is cautioned that computer programs developed in this research may not have been exercised for all cases of interest. While every effort has been made, ~ithinthe time available, to ensure that the programs are free of computational and logic errors, they cannot be considered validated. Any application of these programs without additional verification is at the risk of the user. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 10 II. THE INSTITUTIONAL MILITARY 13 A. BACKGROUND '" - 13 B. CULTURE AND THE MILITARY 14 1. Facts about Culture and Context 14 2. Context, Timing and Stability 15 C. INSTITUTIONAL VSOCCUPATIONAL MILITARy 19 1. The I/O Thesis 19 2. Institutional 20 3. Occupational '" 20 4. Cross-national comparison of some known military 21 D. THE CONNECTION 24 III. THE DIFFUSION OF AN INNOVATION 26 A. UNDERSTANDING THE CONCEPT 26 B. WHAT IS DIFFUSION 27 1. Technological innovations, information and uncertainty 27 2. Characteristics ofinnovations 28 3. Heterophily, ignorance and diffusion 29 4. The Innovation-decision process 30 C. SUPPLYING THE KNOWLEDGE 30 IV. ON HIGH TECHNOLOGY AND THE NEED FOR MILITARY COMPUTERIZATION 32 A. GENERAL 32 B. A LETTER TO AN ADMIRAL 33 1. The Navy and the computer 34 2. The Electronic Battleship 38 3. Conclusions 38 6 V. INTRODUCTION TO MODELING AND MODERN DECISION MAKING 40 A. THE SCIENCE OF DECISION MAKING 40 1. Decision-aiding models 41 2. Elements of a model 42 3. The quantified decision problem 43 4.. Decision problems and fuzzy sets 44 S. The decision process steps 46 B. DECISION MAKING WITH COMPUTERS 48 1. Current computer capabilities and limitations 48 2. The proposed procedure for a "transparent" system 52 3. The transparent system model and its details 58 VI. COMPUTER-ASSISTED SOLUTIONS TO SOME COMMON NAVAL DECISION SITUATIONS " 60 A. THE NAVAL PROBLEMS 60 B; COMPUTER-ASSISTED OPERATIONS RESEARCH TECHNIQUES 60 1. Optimization 00' •••••••••••••••• " •••••••••••••• 61 2: The benefits ofcomputer simulation 63 VlI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 70 APPENDIX A: USER INTERFACE MODES 72 APPENDIX B: A WEAPONS ALLOCATION PROBLEM 76 APPENDIX C: A DETECTION PROBLEM 94 APPENDIX D: A \VEAPONS EVALUATION PROBLEM 97 LIST OF REFERENCES 101 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 103 7 LIST OF TABLES 1. GENERAL DECISION MAKING OPERATIONS 49 2. TYPES OF DECISIONS AND DEGREES OF DECISION STRUCTURE - - - - 51 3. OPTIMAL WEAPONS ALLOCATION 64 4. PROGRAMMER MODE 72 5. EXPERT MODE 73 6. NOVICE iYIODE -74 7. NATURAL QUERY MODE 75 8 LIST OF FIGURES 5.1 The role of the mathematical model 48 . 5.2 The decision maker - intermediary cooperation 55 53 The basic computer-transparent decision-making system 57 9 .~-." ...... ,."":';-!_, ~:~ I. INTRODUCTION There exist people and whole societies of people that are not technologically oriented or inclined. Usually, these peoples' lives and functioning patterns are ruled by their deep roots and attachment to their highly traditional· and cultural values. Furthermore, these" people have a tendency not to readily accept or: adopt solutions that are offered by technological innovations and their agents; They. have this tendency even though they are exposed to and aware of the numerous successful solutions that other, technically oriented people and societies have found in their pursuit of controlling consumption of scarce natural resources, of restoring and preserving the endangered planet's environment, of improving mankind's living
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