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Turkey Country of Challenge and Opportunity

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Turkey Country of Challenge and Opportunity Turkey Country of challenge and opportunity Özgür Durgun - Risk Services 1 October 2017 Monaco Content ■ Hello! ■ Turkey at a glance ■ Turkish Politics & Economy ■ Major Sectors ■ Foreign Trade ■ Payment Behaviour ■ Doing Business in Turkey and Opportunities ■ Atradius in Turkey ■ Underwriting Strategy & Information Turkey - Risk Services 1 2 Turkey at a glance Population: 80 million G-20, OECD, WTO, Average Age: 31 European Council, NATO, Growth: 1,4%p.a. IMF, EU Customs Union Political stability Difficult Region: Erdogan’s leadership: Neighbours Syria, Iraq, Iran, 15 years Georgia, Armenia, Greece, Previous avrg: <2 years Bulgaria Turkey - Risk Services 1 3 Political Situation . The change to Presidential system has been agreed at the April referendum by 51,4% and will be effective by 2019 . State of Emergency in place since the failed coup attempt and expected to Tayyip Binali Erdogan Yildirim continue President Prime Minister . Ongoing legal process against FETO (Gulen movement) after detention of thousands of public officials and seized companies . Increasing conflict with Kurdish authority in Northern Iraq after the independence referendum in September . Easing situation in Syria; especially with the weakening IS . Normalizing relations with Russia and Israel while tension with EU during referendum and elections Turkey - Risk Services 1 4 Economy Indicator 2016 2017E 2018F Growth 2,9% 5,5% 5,0% Unemployment 10,9% 11,0% 11,0% Inflation 9,5% 10,5% 9,5% Public Debt / GDP 29,3% 29,5% 30,0% Current Acc./ GDP -3,8% -4,0% -4,0% S&P Rating BB Negative BB Negative BB Negative USD / TRY Turkey - Risk Services 1 5 Major Sectors The largest export industry; $24,3bln in 2016 1,5mln units Production and 1,1mln Export Automotive Fiat, Renault, Ford, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Mercedes, Isuzu The largest TV manufacturer in Europe; Arcelik, Beko, Grundig, Vestel Electronics & Durables $14bln Retail Market; Teknosa, Media Markt, Vatan, Bimeks 16th largest market in the world and 6th in Europe; $ 6.5bln Novartis, Pfizer, MSD, AstraZeneca, GSK, Sanofi, Bayer Pharmaceuticals $195bln Market size; $97bln non-food Retail Migros, BIM, Carrefour, A101, Boyner, LCW 33mln tons Production; $15bln Exports Metals 8th largest producer in the world 2nd fastest growing after India The biggest textile manufacturer in Europe Textiles The 2nd elargest export industry; $16,9 bln in 2016 Turkey - Risk Services 1 6 Foreign Trade Exports Imports 2015 2016 2015 2016 Total ($, bln) 143.8 142.5 Total 207.2 198.6 EU 63.9 68.4 EU 78.7 77.5 1. Germany 13.4 14.0 1. China 24.9 25.4 2. U.K. 10.6 11.7 2. Germany 21.4 21.5 3. Iraq 8.5 7.6 3. Russia 20.4 15.2 4. Italy 6.9 7.6 4. USA 11.1 10.9 5. USA 6.4 6.6 5. Italy 10.6 10.2 $ bln Export Import 250 199 200 140 143 150 86 100 44 50 23 0 1996 2006 2016 Turkey - Risk Services 1 7 Payment Behaviour Metals Shipbuilding Plastics Wholesale Textiles Construction ICT Turkey - Risk Services 1 8 Doing business with Turkey 1994 – Currency Crisis Crisis 1998 – Region’s Crisis experience 2001 – Banking Crisis 2009 – Other’s Crisis 2016-17 – Unnamed Group Boss is rich ! Structure Fortune 500 Global Forbes Global (number of companies) (number of billionaires) France 29 France 38 U.K. 26 U.K. 54 Turkey 1 Turkey 29 Turkey - Risk Services 1 9 Opportunities ■ Population & demographics ■ Integrated to global economy ■ Proximity to Europe, Middle East, Asia and North Africa ■ Crisis experience ■ Strong industries & skilled workforce ■ Solid banking system ■ Increasing Risk Management and Credit Insurance awareness Turkey - Risk Services 1 10 Atradius in Turkey ■ More than 25 years of Underwriting experience on the Turkish market ■ Local presence since 2007 ■ Experienced and dynamic team ■ Serving over 1.700 policyholders worldwide ■ The fastest growing Credit Insurer in the Turkish market for the last 3 years ■ 1H2017 market share of 29% Turkey - Risk Services 1 11 Underwriting Strategy Global Developments Country Economy Growth Growth Commodity Prices Currency FED Consumer Confidence China Interest rates Inflation Sector Facts Buyer Assessment Capacity Utilisation Financial Position Competition Ownership Productivity Indebtedness Regulations FX Position Payment Behaviour Payment Behaviour Turkey - Risk Services 1 12 Underwriting Strategy - Sectors Turkey - Risk Services 1 13 Underwriting Strategy - Areas of Concern Buyers operating in high-risk sectors (e.g. Metals) Company age < 3 years Negative payment history Limited or no access to financial statements Quality of financials Parental support not given or not visible FX position gap High dependency on consumer confidence (e.g.Retail) High dependency on bank borrowing (e.g. Energy) Connection to illegal FETO organisation Turkey - Risk Services 1 14 Information KKB Information Agencies (credit pool) INFORMATION Lists, Trade Registry, Customers & Buyers Publications, Press,... ■ Turkish companies are not obliged to publish or register their financials unless they are quoted ■ Companies are also not willing too much to share information; but it is improving ■ Quarterly financials are ready in the following 3-4 months ■ Information Agencies can provide financial information only for 2/3 of the requests ■ KKB –the credit pool- provides information on financing capabilities & trends as well as payment behaviour Turkey - Risk Services 1 15 Thank you for your attention! .
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