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New Silk Road H.E NOVEMBER 14th 2019 VOL. 6 Fujairah INSIDE EXCLUSIVE GI INTERVIEW New Silk Road H.E. SUHAIL AL MAZROUEI Minister of Energy & Industry WEEKLY NEWSLETTER United Arab Emirates EXCLUSIVE INSIGHTS /// ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE /// DATA TRENDS /// LATEST NEWS “Part of this is creating a natural evolution and not so much a revolution.” Jeffrey Sprecher, Chairman and CEO, Intercontinental Exchange and Chairman, the New York Stock Exchange Moderator: What were the driving forces behind establishing the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD)? Jeffrey Sprecher: This past year has been volatile, which is OK if that’s the macro environment we operate in. But how does anybody exist in that environment and make long-term investment decisions? A solution to this is creating the ability to hedge out some of that risk and that’s really the opportunity that the new exchange and Murban futures contract bring. Growth throughout the world has been very Asia oriented over the last few years – and Murban has been the engine fuelling that growth. Part of this is creating a natural evolution and not so much a revolution, because the How are you going to ensure Moderator: market will really resist revolution. It is going that the new exchange is an open and to be incumbent on us to make it easy to transparent electronic market for trading? access these markets, easy to learn about Firstly, there is always Jeffrey Sprecher: what you can do and easy to interface with a resistance to change. As much as we all a workflow of clients. That is going to be the expect transparency and want information challenge that we are going to have with all at our fingertips, many existing markets our partners in this venture. Fujairah Average have a custom practice in the way of doing business. You are asking people to change *Edited transcript Oil Tank Storage * their behavior and change their workflow. Source: ADNOC Trading Forum, ADIPEC 2019 Leasing Rates BLACK OIL PRODUCTS Fujairah Weekly Oil Inventory Data 5,601,000 bbl 3,234,000 bbl 14,06,000 bbl Average Range Light Middle Heavy Distillates $3.61 – $4.10/m3 Distillates Distillates & Residues Highest: $4.50/m3 Lowest: $3.40/m3 Source: FEDCom & S&P Global Platts *Time period: Weekly Source: GI Research Insights brought to you by: Thegulfintelligence.com FUJAIRAH NEW SILK ROAD WEEKLY NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 14th 2019 THE WEEK In Numbers Weekly Average Oil Prices Brent Crude: $63.34/bbl WTI Crude: $56.93/bbl DME Oman: $62.56/bbl Dubai: $59.89/bbl Time Period: Week 2, November 2019 Source: IEA, OilPrice.com, GI Research Weekly Imports of Heavy Sweet Crude into Fujairah Total barrels 2,200K 2,061 2,000K 1,800K 1,600K 1,595 1,400K 1,200K 1,000K 997.5 997.5 800K 715.8 725 600K 572.5 526.4 551 400K 200K 0 0K 0 0 0 5-11 Aug 12-18 Aug 19-25 Aug 26 Aug - 1 Sept 2-8 Sept 9-15 Sept 16-22 Sept 23-29 Sept 30 Sept – 6 Oct 7-13 Oct 14-20 Oct 21-27 Oct 28 Oct - 3 Nov Source: Kpler Total Refined Product Exports from the GCC to Asia-Pacific Million barrels per day 2.0 1.805 1.8 1.469 1.6 1.449 1.4 1.263 1.299 1.2 1.070 1.085 0.961 1.0 0.887 0.8 0.774 0.784 0.607 0.6 0.752 0.4 0.2 0 5-11 Aug 12-18 Aug 19-25 Aug 26 Aug - 1 Sept 2-8 Sept 9-15 Sept 16-22 Sept 23-29 Sept 30 Sept – 6 Oct 7-13 Oct 14-20 Oct 21-27 Oct 28oct-3Nov Source: Kpler 2 FUJAIRAH NEW SILK ROAD WEEKLY NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 14th 2019 AN EXCLUSIVE GULF INTELLIGENCE INTERVIEW OPEC+; WHATS THE DEAL? “The direction of where and when that balance occurs in the market is coming.” H.E. Suhail Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy & Industry, UAE What will be on the agenda for the OPEC+ meeting in December? Will you discuss another rollover, or something more substantial? We will have a discussion on both. We will decide what is best for the market. We have been challenged year-on-year to take proactive decisions and we have been able to move forward despite the diversity of OPEC+. In December, we are expecting all member countries to come with their government’s endorsement. The group, including Russia and non-OPEC, has been very active in meeting and showing solidarity. The continuation of these efforts is what the market needs. What is OPEC+’s view on the US-China trade war? How has this affected the predictability of supply-demand patterns? We are seeing a conversion on the dialogues between the US and China where we are getting some clarity. But of course, it is not up to us but to the two countries to decide. This is one element out of many affecting the market. Supply and demand are what we control – not the politics. Hopefully, in the future, oil supply and demand will be clearer. The direction of where and when that balance occurs in the market is coming. Will OPEC+ decide to rollover its agreement through to Q1, 2020? Is there a need for deeper cuts? The answer is, I don’t know. All options are on the table. *Edited transcript Source: At ADIPEC 2019 6% OPEC+ will need to make much deeper supply Not at all % cuts at its December meeting if they want oil 42 prices to average near $70/bl in 2020. Very How confident are you in OPEC+’s ability to balance 24% oil markets in Not very Q4 2019? 23% 77% Disagree Agree 28% Somewhat 3 Fujairah Weekly Oil Inventory Data FUJAIRAH NEW SILK ROAD WEEKLY NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 14th 2019 Fujariah Weekly Oil Inventory Data bbl (million) Light Distillates Middle Distillates Heavy Distillates & Residues bbl (Million) Light Distillates Middle Distillates Heavy Distillates & Residues Jan–9 Feb -13 Mar - 20 Apr- 24 May- 29 Jun- 26 Jul- 3 Aug- 7 Sep- 11 Oct- 16 Nov- 20 Nov- 27 Jan-29 Mar- 5 Apr- 9 May- 14 Jun - 18 Jul - 18 Jul - 30 Aug - 6 Sept - 29 Nov - 5 Dec - 3 Dec - 17 Dec - 24 Jan - 4 Feb - 11 Mar - 4 Apr - 8 May - 6Jun - 10 Jun - 17 Jul -1 Jul -22 Jul - 29 Aug - 26 Sept. - 23 Oct- 21 Nov- 11 As of Monday, 11 November, total seasonally unusual,” a source said. Overall, rising outflows on high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) 3.5% oil product stocks in Fujairah said. Despite higher outflows a combination of higher exports maximum sulfur cargoes and FOB stood at 22.851mn barrels. Stocks from China, steady demand from from India and China, as well as FujairahSour 0.5%ce: FEDCom marine & fuel cargoes fell byBr 491,000ought to you by barrels week-on- the Middle East and India were annual destocking, has left the hit a $256.79/mt premium on week. Overall product stocks fell factors lending support to the market comfortably supplied, Tuesday, the highest level since GIO Gulf by 2.1%, with drawIntellig downsence in the East of Suez gasoline market. The sources added. assessments of the new marine light and heavy distillate stocks, FOB Singapore 92 RON gasoline Stocks of heavy distillates fell fuel grade were launched at offsetting a build in middle crack against front month ICE by 2.2%, falling by 313,000 barrels the start of the year. Shipping distillate stocks. Brent was assessed at $10.49/ on the week to stand at 14.016mn sources said Uniper had chartered Stocks of light distillates fell bl on Tuesday, a rise of $3.08/bl barrels, the third week on record a Suezmax tanker, the Cap by 322,000 barrels, reflecting week-on-week. they have stood above 14mn Diamant, to load 130,000mt of a fall of 5.4% week-on-week. Stocks of middle distillates rose barrels, since stock reporting fuel oil for a Fujairah-Singapore Total volumes stood at 5.601mn by 4.7%, adding 144,000 barrels began at the start of 2017. Market voyage, loading November 24, at barrels. Gasoline cracks have to stand at 3.234mn barrels at participants continued to shift $1.25mn. Trade sources said the risen in recent days to a point that the start of the week. The East of focus towards lower sulfur cargo was very low sulfur fuel was uncommon going into the Suez gasoil market was seeing residual material, with premiums oil (VLSFO), which would have year-end period, sources noted. some downward pressure on the for 0.5% marine fuels continuing 0.1% sulfur and likely for use as “The gasoline market is currently back of healthy supplies coupled their upward trajectory. The a blending component for low very strong right now, which is with middling demand, sources spread between FOB Fujairah sulfur fuel oil. Source: S&P Global Platts Oil Commentary make US manufacturing non- “I want to talk about Donald Trump... competitive.” And my personal favourite on why people should vote for him: “To be blunt, Honestly, I just find the guy off. Meewwwww. Fair enough people would vote for me. absolutely fascinating - he as well, neither party are in They just would. Why? Maybe is proper box office stuff. a rush regardless of market because I’m so good looking.” Mind you, so was Mussolini, pressures. Quite whether we I have to stop it because my but we won’t compare the will see some form of agreement sides hurt.
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