CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 22 FEBRUARY 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

MDC’S POSITION SHORT ON CLARITY

As the opposition agonises over tactics, the Zimbabwean president pre-empts any compromise by setting an election date.

By Marvelous Chigora in

The Zimbabwean opposition seems to have been caught off balance by the announcement that joint presidential and parliamentary elections will go ahead on March 29.

When President announced the poll date on January 25, he demolished all hope that the election might be delayed until a new Credit: Lazele constitution was agreed. Police bar MDC supporters from marching through Harare in support of a new constitution. Picture taken January 23. The postponement was a key demand that the opposition had been pressing The decision came as the divided to devote its energies to organising for in the negotiating process opposition Movement for Democratic mass action to push for a new mediated by the South African Change. MDC, already appeared to constitution. It announced a Development Community, SADC, be struggling to find a clear “freedom march” through the streets aimed at ending the country’s political strategy. of Harare to press for a constitution and economic crisis. The mediation that would guarantee free and fair effort is being led by South African Shortly before the election date was elections, and for a postponement of president Thabo Mbeki. announced, the party had decided the election.

NEWS IN BRIEF

On January 25, President Robert better chance of defeating Mugabe mediating in talks between ZANU-PF Mugabe announced that joint in the presidential vote and the and the opposition, to be more presidential and parliamentary ruling ZANU-PF in the parliamentary forceful in pressing Mugabe to accept elections would go ahead on March poll. compromise. 29. The decision destroyed all hope that the authorities might accede to Zimbabwe’s electoral commission Meanwhile, Mbeki sent his chief the opposition’s demand for a said voters would be given four negotiator Sydney Mufamadi to postponement to allow time for a separate ballot papers to elect a Zimbabwe in what the London-based new constitution to be introduced. president, members of the two SW Radio Africa called “last-ditch houses of parliament, and local attempts to rescue the stalled talks”. In response to the move, the councillors. The papers will be The radio said that in the face of the two factions of the opposition printed in different colours to make deadlocked negotiating process, Movement for Democratic Change them clearly identifiable. Mbeki was close to going public and began talking to each other about telling the Southern African coordinating their response. The The leader of the main MDC Development Community, on whose two factions are said to be faction, , went to behalf he is leading the mediation considering fielding a single to ask that country’s effort, which of the sides was candidate list in hope of standing a president Thabo Mbeki, who is obstructing process.

FEBRUARY 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

Police refused permission for the constitution, has accused the MDC of constitution, and calling for mass march, and waded in with riot gear to opportunism, arguing that the protests and possibly boycotting the break it up when supporters document it had drafted had been election altogether. According to these assembled on January 23. Morgan seen only by the two MDC leaders, the critics, the MDC’s position is neither Tsvangirai, who leads the bigger of two SADC negotiators and a few others – focused nor transparent. MDC factions, was detained briefly to but not by members of the public who stop him taking part, but he and others were being asked to go on marches. “The reason the MDC wants the were able to attend a large rally in a elections postponed, we are told, is Harare stadium later the same day. because they want the transitional “How can they ask people constitution to take root. In other words The MDC decided to resort to mass to press for a [constitution] this is not about a referendum to give mobilisation because it felt the ruling that they have not seen? the people of Zimbabwe a chance to ZANU-PF was backtracking on craft their constitution. It is all about agreements reached during the This shows they are not swapping horses to ,” said SADC-brokered talks. serious” - Lovemore a recent editorial in the Zimbabwe Madhuku. Independent. Since this new approach came only two months before what was already “How can a make-or-break document anticipated as a likely poll date, some about the future of Zimbabwe be observers asked why the MDC had In any case, he said, the MDC had drawn in secrecy and we are waited so long before identifying this undercut its own position by tactically expected to merely endorse it?” as their strategy. aligning itself with ZANU-PF on some issues, notably when its members of A journalist who writes for an After Mugabe’s announcement, parliaments supported a controversial international media outlet added that everything changed again. The MDC constitutional amendment in the MDC should tell people what it said it would make a formal decision September, and subsequent changes really stands for and focus on those later this week on whether to take part to repressive security legislation. issues. As the journalist, who did not in the ballot or stage a boycott. Earlier want to be named, told IWPR, “victory this month, Tsvangirai said his faction “They are not serious on these issues. will not be given on a silver platter”. would not run in the election if ZANU- They are not even targeting ZANU-PF PF refused to accede to its demands but civil society, whose support they at the talk. lost after they endorsed Constitutional “The MDC needs to accept Amendment No. 18 and agreed to that there is no way that cosmetic changes to the Access to ZANU-PF will level the Information and Protection of Privacy It has been hard to discern Act and Public Order and Security playing field so that the a sense of urgency in the Act,” said Madhuku. MDC can take over” - MDC in the face of crucial journalist. elections. “They are just opportunists. What they are calling for is a new constitution that is not people-driven. How can they ask people to press for a document that “The MDC needs to accept that there The two factions have also indicated they have not seen? This shows they is no way that ZANU-PF will level the that they are getting closer to a are not serious. What would people be playing field so that the MDC can take position where they might reunite. The supporting? Even civic society has not over. It has to come up with strategies groups led by Tsvangirai and Arthur seen that document.” that can work in this environment,” he Mutambara divided in late 2005 over said. “Opposition parties have won in the issue of participating in an election , spokesman for the worse environments, even in a war to a newly-reconstituted upper house Tsvangirai faction, has said the situation, and boycotts are not the of parliament. “transitional constitution” agreed with solution.” ZANU-PF during the talks was drafted Watching the opposition parties, it has is only intended to ensure fair As the Zimbabwe Independent put it, been hard to discern a sense of elections, after which a genuinely “Given the dithering and prevarication urgency ahead of these crucial “people-driven constitution” will in opposition ranks, one gets the elections. become possible. impression that it is the Americans who are voting in March and Lovemore Madhuku, who chairs the Non-partisan observers have accused Zimbabweans in November.” National Constitutional Assembly, a the MDC of vacillating between non-government group that has reaching an accommodation with the Marvelous Chigora is the pseudonym consistently pressed for an all-new Mugabe government over the of a journalist in Zimbabwe.

2 ISSUE 22 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS MUGABE UNDER THREAT FROM ZANU-PF DISSIDENTS

Powerful figures in the ruling party are building up momentum for a direct challenge to the president.

By Nonthando Bhebhe in Harare

A powerful ZANU-PF insider has confirmed that plans to replace President Robert Mugabe as the ruling party’s presidential candidate in the March election are at an advanced stage.

In December, Mugabe appeared to have dealt with his critics within ZANU- PF once and for all when he secured

unanimous endorsement as the party’s Credit: Lazele official candidate at an extraordinary ZANU-PF's entering the parliament building. Picture taken congress of members. September 20.

It had been thought that the party This even includes Mugabe’s home “Most of the politburo members, meeting would see his nomination at province, Mashonaland West. including the powerful former army least debated if not challenged, but commanders Mujuru and General that possibility was taken off the The only divided province, the source Vitalis Zvinavashe and influential agenda in advance. Ahead of the said, is Midlands, which is home to former ZAPU-PF member Dumiso meeting, a key ally, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Dabengwa, want Mugabe out of the Mnangagwa, the party’s secretary for race. The majority of cabinet ministers legal affairs, said the congress would are also opposed to Mugabe as the not be looking for a new presidential Nine out of ZANU-PF’s ten candidate.” candidate since ZANU-PF’s rules made provincial branches said to it clear that the First Secretary – in this be opposed to Mugabe as a He added that the few undecided case Mugabe – must automatically be candidate. senior members included security put forward for election. minister and ZANU-PF secretary and the party’s Now, however, IWPR has learned that national commissar . high-placed dissenters within the party Always regarded as Mugabe’s preferred are revisiting the issue, and are successor, Mnangagwa is a bitter rival of “We can safely say 90 per cent of the gathering support for a challenge to retired army commander General population is opposed to Mugabe, and Mugabe. Solomon Mujuru, who has led the drive to obviously ZANU-PF will not win under oust the president and is now believed to his leadership. It is an inevitable IWPR’s source, a key party insider who be the kingmaker behind Makoni. outcome. What is happening now is asked not to be named, said that that the majority ZANU-PF within a matter of weeks, Mugabe “All those that were opposed to membership and all other forces we would be removed as the party’s Mugabe standing as the party’s are talking to will support these official candidate and replaced with presidential candidate are backing initiatives.” former finance minister . Makoni as the preferred candidate for the elections. Everyone agrees that if The state-run Herald newspaper has He said nine out of the ten provincial ZANU-PF goes to the elections with carried a barrage of insults directed at branches were now opposed to Mugabe, it will lose - hence the need what is termed the “Makoni project”, Mugabe and wanted a change in to change the leadership now,” said indicating that the news has made leadership before the crucial election. the party insider. Mugabe’s backers jittery. The remarks

FEBRUARY 2008 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING have come from columnist Nathaniel The retired general was responsible charisma, ability and intellect to mount Manheru, believed in reality to be the for the rise of his wife Joyce Mujuru to a serious challenge to Tsvangirai, and Mugabe spokesman George the ZANU-PF presidium in 2004, he is also seen by many as a match Charamba. blocking the way for Mnangagwa. for Mugabe. Joyce Mujuru was appointed deputy This is not the first time that Makoni’s head of the party when it amended its The Mujuru/Makoni faction has name has been mentioned as a constitution to make it mandatory for reportedly ruled out any alliance with potential successor to Mugabe. In the one such post to be held by a the MDC, preferring to continue with past he has failed to make headway woman. ZANU-PF’s ideological line under a because, while he is an expert on new leadership. financial and economic matters, he As far back as 2006, IWPR was told by has been regarded as a political a source close to Mujuru that lightweight in the brutal world of discussions with Makoni were under ZANU-PF politics. way. Efforts to woo him started when Makoni could be the most the general realised his wife was not presentable option for the ideal candidate to succeed Mugabe, who was then hinting that he those in the establishment Simon Makoni is being might step down. who want to end backed as a contender by Zimbabwe’s international Solomon Mujuru, a “The general knows that what he isolation. powerful figure within wants is a winner,” said the source at the time, explaining that this meant a ZANU-PF. figure who could not only beat Morgan Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, in an Compared with most of the senior election contest, but also defeat ZANU-PF candidates Makoni, 58, is a His future has always depended on Mnangagwa and win acceptance from youngster. While the old guard was the backing of more powerful party ordinary Zimbabweans. fighting the liberation war in the barons. Seventies, he was studying chemical engineering in Britain, where he Mujuru is now said to be the driving obtained a PhD. He also represented force behind him. Analysts say Mujuru The technocrat Makoni is the exiled ZANU in Europe2He was is not interested in becoming president forced out of government in 2002 by himself, but wants to be the power perhaps the most popular ZANU-PF old-timers who saw him as a behind the throne. figure in ZANU-PF. threat to their interests. A senior party official once described him as being A long-running battle for the “too hot to handle”, and “too clever succession has divided ZANU-PF into and too young” for the older a camp led by Mnangagwa and members. supporters of Mujuru. A highly-educated technocrat, Makoni is perhaps the most widely liked figure In the Nineties, Makoni served for ten Although he retired as head of the in a deeply unpopular party. years as executive secretary of the army more than a decade ago, Mujuru Southern African Development has endured as one of the most feared Both friends and critics agree he is Coordination Conference, the and powerful figures in Zimbabwe. extremely clever and has a reputation precursor to the Southern African Under the nom de guerre Rex Nhongo, for integrity, once again a major asset Development Community. This gave he led Mugabe’s guerrilla army during when much of the establishment has him international experience and a the 1970s war of independence been tainted by corruption scandals great deal of exposure, and he against white-ruled . and human rights violations. returned to Zimbabwe a far sharper and more polished politician. He went on to become a wealthy and Makoni could just be the most hardnosed businessman, and is presentable choice available for those He is currently an investment rumoured to own several farms seized in the establishment who want to end consultant working widely in Africa. from white farmers under Mugabe’s ill- Zimbabwe’s international isolation. He fated land reform programme is popular among the business Nonthando Bhebhe is the pseudonym launched in 2000. community, where it is felt he has the of an IWPR contributor in Zimbabwe.

4 ISSUE 22 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS QUESTIONS OVER REPORTED PROGRESS IN ZIMBABWE TALKS

Observers can see none of the improvements claimed from the negotiations on resolving the long-running political stand-off.

By Joseph Sithole in Harare

South African president Thabo Mbeki has once again reported progress in the talks he is mediating between Zimbabwe’s ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition in an attempt to end the country’s eight-year political and economic crisis.

However, analysts say that any headway made in the negotiations Credit: Lazele brokered by the Southern African Presidents Thabo Mbeki (left) and Robert Mugabe meet for talks at State House in Development Community, SADC, is as Harare. Picture taken November 22. imperceptible and inaudible as the so- called “quiet diplomacy” Mbeki has and outcome of their meetings with constitution and to postpone the used in dealing with President Robert Mbeki, insisting on the blanket of elections to allow reforms to electoral Mugabe. secrecy they swore to at the start of and security laws to take place in the SADC-initiated negotiations in April advance. On January 17, Mbeki met Mugabe for last year. four hours at State House, and then An analyst in Harare said that it was talked separately with both leaders of Earlier in the week, Mbeki told visiting hard to see what progress Mbeki the divided opposition Movement for Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern that could be referring to. Democratic Change, MDC, at the while a breakthrough was close in the South African embassy in Harare. talks, there remained certain “sticking “Perhaps they know something we points”. don’t know,” said the analyst, who also The South African leader told noted the continuing reports of journalists after these private meetings During the negotiations, the opposition violence around the country. that he was satisfied with the have called for a new constitution, commitment of all political leaders to reform of the country’s electoral laws “Since they began, the talks have resolving the long-running crisis. and the right to vote for all been cloaked in secrecy except for Zimbabwean expatriates, as well as an leaks and occasional complaints by “You cannot doubt the level of end to political violence and the opposition about ZANU-PF’s failure commitment of the Zimbabwe repression before the elections to meet fully its commitments. The leadership to ensuring that the scheduled for March. progress is as imperceptible as the country’s problems are solved,” said effects of Mbeki’s ‘quiet diplomacy’ on Mbeki, standing next to Mugabe, who After Mugabe categorically rejected Mugabe. There is nothing on the will be 84 next month. introducing a new constitution before ground.” the elections, the MDC asked instead “This [negotiating process] is work in for a transitional document designed The MDC also came in for criticism. progress and I must say that there has to ensure free and fair elections. been very good progress. There is Sources close to the meeting between definitely a lot of light.” However, the opposition recently Mbeki and the MDC leaders say the complained that Mugabe’s ZANU-PF opposition “capitulated” without a Both sides in the negotiations have party had backtracked on agreements whimper when they were informed that refused to comment on the content to come up with such a transitional Mugabe had dismissed their calls for a

FEBRUARY 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING new constitution and for a delay in recently told a rally in the poor suburb SADC talks, has planned a total of 300 holding the elections until June. of Dzivaresekwa that there would be a rallies to take place this month, bloodbath worse than that in if starting with three in the capital Few of the MDC’s other demands have there is a feeling after the March Harare. been met by the ruling party. ZANU-PF elections that the vote was rigged. has so far agreed on only cosmetic “The march of a million men and amendments to repressive laws such as The analyst concluded that the MDC women that we intend to hold on the Public Order and Security Act, which may believe the threat of angry January 23, 2008 is a dipstick in an oil empowers police to unilaterally ban protests will be enough to deter the tank to gauge the seriousness I have opposition rallies if they have a reason to authorities from vote-rigging in the alluded to earlier on,” said , believe these might result in violence. spring elections. who is secretary-general of the Tsvangirai faction and is representing Less than two months before the polls, “They believe ZANU-PF will be loathe it at the Mbeki-led negotiations. there is still no sign that government to go that route when events in Kenya plans to relax its grip on the state are still fresh and Mugabe has not got “I have to point out that this intended media and allow the opposition to over the tag of illegitimacy which he march is in no way prejudicial to the campaign freely. has worn since his controversial re- SADC mediation efforts,” he said. “I election in 2000.” have to place it on record that the From the look of things, said one MDC remains committed to the SADC observer, the MDC had backed down talks and we remain hopeful that from its previous militant approach. something will come out of that “We want to take the process.” “Either they have capitulated or they believe that indeed ZANU-PF can’t struggle outside the “This is part of Zimbabwe’s beat them in free and fair elections,” boardroom and into the democratisation process,” said Biti. he said. streets” – Biti. “Now that we have been in the According to this analyst, who did not boardroom [with the ruling party] for want to be named, the MDC have this long, we want to take the struggle drawn encouragement from recent Meanwhile, the MDC announced outside the boardroom and into the events in Kenya, where violence demonstrations for January 23 to push streets, where we will gauge whether erupted after the opposition accused for a new constitution and also to test there was any seriousness and the incumbent president ZANU-PF’s commitment to non- commitment to the SADC dialogue on of stealing the election. violence. the part of ZANU-PF.”

Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the The opposition movement, which Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of a MDC faction led by Morgan Tsvangirai, insists it remains committed to the journalist in Zimbabwe.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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