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2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results Background Paper No 01/2019 by Antony Green

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2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results Background Paper No 01/2019 by Antony Green 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results Background Paper No 01/2019 By Antony Green RELATED PUBLICATIONS • NSW Legislative Council Election 2015, by Antony Green (Background Paper 01/2018) • NSW Legislative Assembly election 2015: Two-party preferred results by polling place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 02/2015) • 2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, by Antony Green (Background Paper 01/2015) • NSW Legislative Assembly election 2011: Two-party preferred results by polling place, by Antony Green (Background Paper 1/2012) • 2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, by Antony Green (Background Paper 3/2011) ISSN 1325-4456 ISBN October 2019 © 2019 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior consent from the Manager, NSW Parliamentary Research Service, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. 2019 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results by Antony Green NSW PARLIAMENTARY RESEARCH SERVICE Matthew Dobson (BA (Psych Hons), PhD), Senior Manager, Health, Media and Communications ................. (02) 9230 2356 Daniel Montoya (BEnvSc (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Environment/Planning ......................... (02) 9230 2003 Lenny Roth (BCom, LLB), Senior Research Officer, Law ....................................................... (02) 9230 2768 Chris Angus (BA(Media&Comm), LLM(Juris Doctor)), Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 2906 Tom Gotsis (BA, LLB, Dip Ed, Grad Dip Soc Sci) Research Officer, Law .................................................................. (02) 9230 3085 Alice Rummery (BACom, BCII), Graduate Research Officer ........................................................... (02) 9230 2519 Should Members or their staff require further information about this publication please contact the author. Information about Research Publications can be found online. Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion. 2019 NEW SOUTH WALES ELECTION Analysis of Results CONTENTS Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Statistical Highlights ............................................................................................................... 3 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results .................................................................. 5 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral District ..................................................... 10 Summary of Two-Party and Two-Candidate Preferred Results ................................. 31 Final Count Percentages and Results Basis .............................................................. 34 Electoral Pendulum and Analysis of Swing ................................................................ 37 Regional Summaries .................................................................................................. 41 By-elections 2015 - 2019 ............................................................................................ 45 Legislative Council Election Summary of Legislative Council Result ...................................................................... 48 Detail of Legislative Council First Preference Votes .................................................. 51 New and Departing Members ............................................................................................... 59 NSW Election Results 1947-2019 ......................................................................................... 61 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting member + Sitting member contesting other chamber .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations - Unaffiliated Candidates ADV Advance Australia Party (previously Building Australia Party) AFP # Australia First AJP Animal Justice Party ALP Australian Labor Party CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) CON Australian Conservatives CLR Country Labor FLX Flux GRN The Greens IND Independents KSO Keep Sydney Open LDP Liberal Democratic Party LIB Liberal Party NAT The Nationals L/NP Liberal-National Party Coalition (where the two parties have been accumulated together) ONP Pauline Hanson's One Nation OTH Others SA Socialist Alliance SAP Sustainable Australia Party SBP Small Business Party SFF Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (previously Shooters and Fishers Party) UNI # Unity (contested 2015 election, no longer registered) VEP Voluntary Euthanasia Party (# – not registered parties) Important Dates Legislative Assembly dissolved Friday 1 March 2019 Issue of Writs Monday 4 March 2019 Close of Rolls (for printing) Monday 4 March 2019 Close of Nominations Wednesday 6 March 2019 Polling Day Saturday 23 March 2019 Date set for Return of Writ Friday 3 May 2019 (Writ returned 1 May 2019) 2 NSW Election 2019 INTRODUCTION This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2019 New South Wales election. It includes summaries of the results in all lower house electoral districts, comparisons with the 2015 election, and statistical analysis of results and swings across districts and regions. A summary of by- elections since 2015 is also included. Overall first preference results for the Legislative Council are provided, along with a summary of the Council's distribution of preferences. Format for Legislative Assembly Results For each Legislative Assembly district, details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes, percentages and swings are provided, along with alternative two-party preferred results where appropriate. The format and calculations used for each district are as follows. First Count: The vote shown for each candidate is the total of primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote. Change in vote share is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a candidate or party at the last election from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. All primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents votes for the two final candidates after the distribution of preferences. The total number of votes that exhaust preferences before reaching one of the final two candidates is shown as 'Exhausted'. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total of votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. The exhausted percentage is calculated as a percentage of formal votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final two candidates from the previous election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election (e.g. Lismore), ghost candidates are included, and more than two swing figures are shown. Two-Party Preferred: Represents a separate distribution of preferences between candidates of the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. These are included for districts where the formal distribution of preferences did not produce a two-party preferred finish. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred Results Two-candidate Preferred: To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes remaining in the count after the formal distribution of preferences. The distribution is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and distributing each candidate’s ballot papers according to the next preferences for a candidate remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. Two-Party Preferred: Most Australian elections finish as a contest between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. The final distribution of preferences between Labor and Coalition candidates is referred to as the 'two-party preferred count'. If the two-candidate preferred count is not also a two-party preferred count, an alternate distribution of preference is undertaken retaining Labor and Coalition candidates through the distribution. Two-party preferred counts were traditionally obtained from a second distribution of preferences. Since 2015 the NSW Electoral Commission has data entered all ballot papers and used the date to generate the formal distribution of preferences required to determine the winning candidate. The Commission now publishes a preference distribution tool on its website to determine a final count between any pairing of candidates. Two-party preferred totals in this publication have been derived using the Commission's on-line tool. At the 2019 election, there were 74 districts where the two-candidate preferred count was also a two- party preferred count. There were 19 districts where an alternate count was required. There were four Liberal-Green contests
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