Knowledge is Power Issue No. 19,

AF E RICA ITUT August 2017 POLICY INST Research Notes Africa Policy Institute

President (R) receives a special sword representing the instruments of his power and authority from his predecessor (L) as Gen Julius Karangi looks on after his official swearing-in ceremony at Kasarani Stadium in the capital , April 9, 2013.PHOTO | REUTERS

DOCTRINE OF PEACEFUL TRANSITION OF POWER KEY TO ELECTORAL PEACE

Peter Kagwanja

Professor Kagwanja observes that the 2017 election is occurring in a polarized environment fostered by intense and conflict-prone post-truth politics. His views emanate from a historical perspective depicting ’s return to multi-party democracy in 1992, where every subsequent General Election has been billed as “critical.” So is the August 8, 2017, election. Peace is, again, on trial. However, borrowing the thoughts of Thomas Carothers on how a nation can have a peaceful transition of power shows the need for election-monitoring groups which can boost voter confidence, improve election logistics, deter fraud, alleviate violence, and spread international electoral norms. Thus, the over 5,000-international election observers and hundreds of journalists from global news outlets who have joined over 7,000 local observers need to ensure that the Election observation process must be above suspicion as the Caesars wife.

Africa Research Notes, No. 19, August 2017 Issue No. 19, Africa Research Notes August 2017 2

Nairobi. Tuesday, August 9, 2022. Some 32 million deal. Odinga is still eligible to fight for the election Kenyan registered voters go to the polls to elect in 2022 and 2037! After all, Jomo Kenyatta was a successor to President Uhuru Kenyatta. Deputy 73 when he ascended to power and went on to President William Ruto and former Prime Minister rule the country for a full 15 years. Kibaki came to are head to head as front-runners. A power at the age of 71 and reigned for a decade. local polling research firm predicts that the 77-year Indeed, the ODM chief is just a year older than old former premier might be the victor. But the Ipsos Donald Trump. 2017 might as well be a dry-run for Group, a global market research and consulting his 2022. Opinion polls of doubtful accuracy and firm headquartered in Paris, France, puts the integrity are proving too costly for peace—what Deputy President in the lead. The presence of three Tom Wolf described as “Poll poison” in an article other strong candidates rules out the first-round published by the Journal of Contemporary African victory, pushing the election to a run-off. However, Studies (2009: 79-304). These polls and the motives the presence of strong political institutions has of those behind them have been rightly blamed for lessened tension, making Kenya’s democracy more contributing to the polarized environment ahead certain. East Africa’s largest economy has finally of the 2007-2008 post-election violence. taken off, and Kenyatta’s legacy is assured. Since Kenya returned to multi-party democracy in 1992, Ahead of the August polls, a survey by IPSOS Kenya, put President Uhuru in the lead with a popularity rating of 47 per cent while Raila is at 43 per cent. But the Infotrak research firm— whose Since Kenya returned to multi- chief executive has denied accusations that she cooks polls and is related to Odinga—put Odinga party democracy in 1992, ahead by one percentage point with the two at every subsequent General 47 and 46 per cent, respectively. Similarly, in 2013, Infotrak put Odinga ahead with 46 per cent against Election has been billed as Kenyatta’s 44 per cent. “critical.” So is the August 8, Although Kenyatta clinched a 50.51 per cent first- 2017, election. Peace is, again, round victory against Odinga’s 43.70 per cent, the results of the flawed poll fueled claims of ‘rigging”. In on trial. 2017, other pollsters predict a victory for President Kenyatta between 4 and 21 percentage points, signaling the ideological biases and polarization of pollsters. Globally, the polls industry has lost every subsequent General Election has been billed its shine and reliability after pollsters failed to as “critical.” So is the August 8, 2017, election. Peace accurately predict the out of Brexit and victory of is, again, on trial. The 2017 election is occurring Donald Trump. However, Infotrak and Ipsos polls in a polarized environment fostered by intense seem to suggest a ‘run-off scenario’. However, the and conflict-prone post-truth politics. As earlier truth is, there is absolutely no run-off in the 2017 predicted in this column, the rise of ‘post-truth’ presidential election! The election is a perfect two- global order has intensified tension in the elections horse race that will be decided in the first round, (Sunday Nation, 25/2/17). averting a divisive and costly second round. For rival political formations, victory in all positions is A shrilly “last bullet theory” has created a false notion key to ensuring a stable polity to lay the foundation of a country teetering on the brink, contributing of peace, legitimacy, and stability as pre-requisites to tension and acrimony. The last-bullet thesis is for Kenya’s long-delayed economic take-off. hoisted on the false premise that Odinga is old and sickly, and winning the 2017 election is a do-or- However, more than in any other election, the die affair. The truth is that losing 2017 is not a big margin of victory is pivotal to securing post- Issue No. 19, Africa Research Notes August 2017 3

election peace. A narrow margin will most likely is key to democratic consolidation and peace. fall into the booby-trap of ubiquitous ‘rigging’ The presence of over 5,000-strong world teams claims and perhaps provide logic for “spontaneous” of election observers and hundreds of journalists violence to force a power-sharing deal. Peace from global news outlets who have joined will largely depend on the tyranny of turn-out to over 7,000 local observers underscores Kenya’s widen the margins. Nevertheless, Jubilee will have geopolitical and global importance. As Thomas a Herculean task defending a narrow victory and Carothers rightly observed, election-monitoring securing the nation. An opposition loss throws up groups can boost voter confidence, improve two scenarios. One, the opposition might opt to election logistics, deter fraud, alleviate violence, seek redress for its grievances in the corridors of and spread international electoral norms. But justice, leading to either confirmation or rejection election observation can prove a double-edged of the results by the Supreme Court. Inversely, it blade that can cut both ways. The presence of too might invoke ‘people’s power’. With the failure of many amateurs in the field, the excessive focus the run-off option, the alternative model is the on polling day, and the frequently superficial “People’s President” installed through “people’s judgments of “free and fair” without due regard power” in the streets—as a contrast to “Official for complex electoral environments can be a risk President” announced by the IEBC. This ideological to peace and democracy. Carothers lamented fault line is likely to define any post-election that election observers often fail to be impartial. dispute. Election observations must be above suspicion as the Caesars wife. Ultimately, Election Observers The ‘adopt-a-polling-station’ strategy, previously must insist on strict adherence to the doctrine of used in Ghana among other countries to mobilize peaceful transfer of power as the surest guarantee a high voter turn-out, risks becoming a lightning for post-election stability. rod. The call by National Super Alliance (NASA) on its supporters to remain at polling stations after Professor Peter Kagwanja is a former Government casting their ballots to guard their votes against adviser and currently the Chief executive of “rigging” risks triggering clashes between law Africa Policy Institute and Visiting Scholar at the enforcers and mobs. Furthermore, the opposition’s . The article was previously parallel vote tallying strategy might also imperil published under the title- Observers must be as peace if its results are used to declare victory as a above suspicion as Caesar’s wife, Sunday Nation “people’s president.” Finally, election monitoring (Nairobi), August 6, 2017. Issue No. 19, Africa Research Notes August 2017 4

API Africa Research Notes Series publishes scientifically valid research outputs that cannot be considered as full research or methodology articles. Its aim is to provide a forum for sharing data, useful information and perspectives on topical issues of concern to the policy and research communities. Articles published under this series cut across disciplines, and include some short articles or opinion pieces that have already been published by the experts of the Africa Policy Institute. Some are brief publications, updates to previous work, abridged versions of research agendas or concept notes or brief reports of policy forums.

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