Top 10 Dividend Elite August 2021 Edition a Monthly Special Report Service from Sure Dividend
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Top 10 Dividend Elite August 2021 Edition A monthly special report service from Sure Dividend By Ben Reynolds, Bob Ciura, Josh Arnold, Eli Inkrot, and Samuel Smith Edited by Brad Beams Published on August 1st, 2021 2 Table Of Contents Top 10 Dividend Elite – August 2021 ................................................................................. 3 Analysis of the Top 10......................................................................................................... 4 BancFirst Corp. (BANF) .................................................................................................. 4 ABM Industries Inc. (ABM) ............................................................................................ 5 Enterprise Bancorp Inc. (EBTC) ...................................................................................... 6 Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW) ....................................................................................... 7 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA) ............................................................................ 8 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) .............................................................................. 9 Tennant Co. (TNC) ........................................................................................................ 10 AT&T Inc. (T) ................................................................................................................ 11 New Jersey Resources Corp. (NJR) ............................................................................... 12 People’s United Financial Inc. (PBCT) ......................................................................... 13 Ranking Procedure ............................................................................................................ 14 List Of Securities with 25+Years of Rising Dividends by Dividend Risk Score ............. 15 3 Top 10 Dividend Elite – August 2021 Welcome to the inaugural edition of our Top 10 Dividend Elite service! The table below gives a quick summary of our top 10 selections of securities with 25+ years of rising dividends. Please keep reading to see a detailed analysis on each of the top 10. Div. # Years Exp. Exp. Exp. Div. Name & Ticker Risk Div. Value Growth Total Yield Score Increases Return Return Return BancFirst (BANF) A 27 2.4% 4.1% 6.0% 12.2% ABM Industries (ABM) A 53 1.6% 5.0% 5.0% 11.4% Enterprise Bancorp (EBTC) A 27 2.2% 4.4% 5.0% 11.4% Lowe’s (LOW) A 59 1.7% 2.6% 7.0% 10.9% Walgreens Boots (WBA) A 46 4.1% 2.0% 5.0% 10.5% Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) A 46 2.5% 2.4% 6.0% 10.4% Tennant (TNC) A 48 1.2% 0.7% 8.0% 9.8% AT&T (T) B 36 7.4% 4.9% 3.0% 13.3% New Jersey Resources (NJR) B 25 3.4% 0.4% 7.0% 10.3% People’s United Financial (PBCT) B 29 4.6% 2.6% 4.0% 10.1% Notes: Data for the table above is from the 7/30/21 spreadsheet of our Sure Analysis Research Database. ‘Div.’ stands for ‘Dividend.’ ‘# Years Div. Increases’ shows the consecutive years of dividend growth. ‘Exp.’ Stands for ‘Expected.’ Expected returns are annualized and based on 5- year forward projections. Data in the table above may be different than individual company analysis pages due to writing the company reports throughout the previous several days. Disclosures: Ben Reynolds is long WBA and T. Eli Inkrot is long WBA and T. We expanded the Dividend Elite special report to include all securities with 25+ years of dividend growth found in the Sure Analysis Research Database, rather than just Dividend Aristocrats which resulted in more changes in the Top 10 than usual. Becton Dickinson (BDX), AbbVie (ABBV), Atmos Energy (ATO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Cardinal Health (CAH), and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) were replaced by BancFirst (BANF), ABM Industries (ABM), Enterprise Bancorp (EBTC), Tennant Company (TNC), New Jersey Resources (NJR), and People’s United Financial (PBCT). An equally weighted portfolio of the Top 10 has the following future expected total return estimate characteristics: Top 10 Dividend Elite S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 3.1% 1.3% Growth Rate: 5.6% 5.5% Valuation Return: 2.9% -7.4% Expected Annual Total Returns: 11.0% -0.6% Note: The S&P 500 expected annual total return calculation above is the simplified method which is the sum of dividend yield, growth rate, and valuation expected returns. 4 Analysis of the Top 10 BancFirst Corp. (BANF) Dividend Risk Score: A 5-Year Expected Annual Total Returns: 12.2% Overview & Current Events BancFirst Corporation is a bank holding company for BancFirst, a bank that is headquartered in Oklahoma. BancFirst is a community bank that offers a standard suite of products including deposit accounts, consumer loans, business loans, treasury services for businesses, individual retirement accounts, and more. The bank’s footprint is just over 100 locations throughout Oklahoma, as well as three in Dallas, Texas. The corporation was founded in 1984, generates about $465 million in annual revenue, and trades with a market capitalization of $1.8 billion. BancFirst reported second-quarter earnings on July 15th, 2021 and results were much improved over the pandemic-impacted year-ago period. Net income came to $48 million, or $1.45 per diluted share. Both totals more than doubled year-over-year from $21 million and 63 cents per share, respectively. For the first six months of the year, net income came to $91 million, or $2.72 per share. The key to earnings growth has been the reversal of provisions for credit losses that were previously taken during the pandemic but were not necessary in hindsight. This totaled $9.9 million in Q2, up enormously from the loss of $19.3 million in the same period a year ago. For the first half of last year, provisions for credit losses were $38.9 million, against a benefit of $9.9 million for this year, a positive swing of nearly $50 million. Net interest income (NII) was $82 million in Q2, up from $77 million in last year’s Q2. Growth in NII was due to loan growth, Paycheck Protection Program income, and lower rates paid on deposits. Net interest margin remains strong at 3.32% but was down from 3.54% in last year’s Q2. Total assets ended the quarter at $11 billion, up almost $2 billion from the end of 2020. We forecast $4.55 in earnings-per-share for this year. Safety & Dividend Risk Analysis Like other banks, BancFirst is susceptible to recessions. However, in BancFirst’s case, prudent credit writing and a strong balance sheet combine to produce a level of recession resilience that many other banks cannot match. Indeed, the company has been able to increase its dividend for more than a quarter century because its earnings hold up well during recessions, and we don’t expect that to change. With a payout ratio of just 30% for this year, we see the dividend as ultra-safe with years of potential growth ahead. Growth, Value, & Expected Total Return Analysis BancFirst has averaged 8% earnings-per-share growth in the past decade, and 15% in the past five years. However, over longer terms that include recessions, we expect 6% per year. We see growth as driven by strong margins and asset growth but offset by interest rate headwinds that are outside of the bank’s control. We see 12.2% total returns from here given the low valuation and decent yield. 5 ABM Industries Inc. (ABM) Dividend Risk Score: A 5-Year Expected Annual Total Returns: 11.4% Overview & Current Events ABM Industries is a service company that provides fully integrated facility solutions, primarily in the U.S. The company serves a wide variety of industries and has a deep book of customers with janitorial services, facilities engineering, parking management, landscaping and grounds management, mechanical and electrical services, and vehicle maintenance. ABM was founded in 1909, employs more than 140,000 people globally, and trades with a market capitalization of just over $3.1 billion. ABM’s most recent earnings report was released on June 8th, 2021 and results were better than expectations on the top and bottom lines. Total revenue came to $1.5 billion, which was essentially flat to the same period a year ago and was impacted from the early stages of the pandemic. The company reduced expenses on a relative basis during the quarter, which helped preserve margins, and also helped it to beat earnings-per-share estimates. That number came to 82 cents in the second quarter, up 37% year-over-year. Following Q2 results, management boosted guidance for earnings-per-share to $3.30 to $3.50. Our estimate has moved up accordingly, and now stands at $3.40, which would represent massive growth over 2020. ABM said in early July it settled the Bucio case that was filed in 2006 regarding a legacy overtime tracking system for a total consideration of $140 million. ABM said it would take a $110 million charge in Q3 of 2021, added to the $30 million previously reserved Safety & Dividend Risk Analysis ABM generally performs quite well during recessions, which is why it has been able to boost its dividend for more than 50 years consecutively. ABM saw strong earnings growth in 2020, during a very sharp recession, so we don’t see any meaningful recession risk for ABM going forward. ABM’s payout ratio is just 22% of earnings, meaning the dividend is extremely safe and has many years of potential growth ahead, even if we do not account for forecasted earnings growth. Growth, Value, & Expected Total Return Analysis ABM’s average growth rate during the last decade is about 5% annually, and the company hasn’t posted a year-over-year earnings decline during that period, which is quite impressive. We see organic growth and acquisitions combining for a 5% average annual growth rate in the coming years, roughly in line with historical performances. ABM’s valuation has moved in a very wide range over the past decade, trading as high as a mid-20s price-to-earnings ratio, down to a low of about half of that, where it trades today. Indeed, ABM looks well-priced today at 13.7 times this year’s projected earnings, as that compares very favorably to our fair value estimate of 17.5 times earnings. Due to this, we see a sizable 5.0% annual tailwind to total returns in the coming years. In total, we see robust 11.4% total annual returns in the coming years.