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Piper Jaffray Cybersecurity Earnings Update

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Piper Jaffray Cybersecurity Earnings Update Piper Jaffray Cybersecurity Earnings Update Fourth Quarter 2017 Greg Klancher Principal, Technology Investment Banking Piper Jaffray & Co. MINNEAPOLIS | BOSTON | CHICAGO | HOUSTON | LONDON | LOS ANGELES | NEW YORK | SAN FRANCISCO | ZÜRICH Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC) is an investment bank and asset management firm headquartered in Minneapolis with offices across the U.S. and in London, Zurich and Hong Kong. Securities brokerage and investment banking services are offered in the United States through Piper Jaffray & Co., member NYSE and SIPC, in Europe through Piper Jaffray Ltd., authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and in Hong Kong through Piper Jaffray Hong Kong, authorized and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. Asset management products and services are offered through three separate investment advisory affiliates registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: Advisory Research Inc., Piper Jaffray Investment Management LLC and PJC Capital Partners LLC. Piper Jaffray & Co., Member SIPC and FINRA 11/17 Revenue Growth Remained Strong in Q4; Revenue Guidance for Q1 Mostly In-Line with Expectations Year-over-Year Revenue Growth in Q4 remained in-line with average growth in the past 6 quarters Year-over-Year Revenue Growth – Post Q4 2017 Earnings Quarter-over-Quarter Revenue Growth – Post Q4 2017 Earnings 10.0% 9.0% 25.0% 8.3% 21.0% 8.0% 20.5% 20.0% 6.2% 6.7% 5.4% 20.0% 18.2% 6.0% 5.3% 16.3% 16.7% 15.6% 4.0% 15.0% 13.2% 2.0% 0.0% 10.0% (2.0%) 5.0% (4.0%) (4.2%) (6.0%) (5.7%) 0.0% (8.0%) C2Q16A / C3Q16A / C4Q16A / C1Q17A / C2Q17A / C3Q17A / C4Q17A / Q1 18 C2Q16A / C3Q16A / C4Q16A / C1Q17A / C2Q17A / C3Q17A / C4Q17A / Q1 18 C2Q15A C3Q15A C4Q15A C1Q16A C2Q16A C3Q16A C4Q16A Guidance C1Q16A C2Q16A C3Q16A C4Q16A C1Q17A C2Q17A C3Q17A Guidance vs. Q1 17 vs. Q4 17 Actual Actual Quarterly Revenue vs. Street T+1 Share Price Reaction Post Q4 2017 Announcement 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Q4 17A vs Q4 17 Street Q1 18 Guidance vs Q1 18 Street Mean Median Source: Company filings, S&P Capital IQ and FactSet; median of companies listed on page 2 PIPER JAFFRAY 1 Q4 Revenues Were Largely Better Than Street Expectations; Q1 Guidance is Mostly In-Line with Street Expectations • Seven companies (PFPT, FSCT, MIME, VRNS, SAIL, SPLK, OKTA) reported YoY revenue growth in excess of 30% in Q4 T+1 Percent 4Q17 Q/Q Revenue 4Q17 Y/Y Revenue 4Q17 Actual vs. CQ1E QoQ CQ1E YoY Growth CQ1E Guidance CY18 YoY Growth CY18 Guidance Reaction 4Q17 Ticker Company 4Q17 Earnings Date growth growth Street Growth (Guidance) (Guidance) vs. Street (Guidance) vs. Street Announcement Security SYMC Symantec Corporation 01/31/18 (2.5%) 16.1% (4.4%) (1.6%) 14.3% (7.0%) NA NA 0.5% CHKP Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. 01/31/18 11.3% 4.0% (0.5%) (11.1%) 3.3% (2.6%) 5.1% (1.0%) (0.4%) FTNT Fortinet, Inc. 02/05/18 11.3% 14.8% 1.9% (6.4%) 14.5% 0.1% 14.1% 0.9% 6.2% AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. 02/06/18 6.8% 7.7% 2.2% (1.6%) 7.2% 0.8% 7.5% 0.0% 1.3% PFPT Proofpoint, Inc. 02/06/18 8.3% 36.1% 4.1% 3.2% 32.5% 1.5% 28.6% 0.3% (2.6%) RDWR Radware Ltd. 02/07/18 10.2% 13.0% 4.5% (7.6%) 10.4% 2.1% NA NA (0.2%) FSCT ForeScout Technologies, Inc. 02/07/18 2.5% 33.4% 5.7% (16.6%) 24.0% (0.7%) 20.0% 1.2% (11.9%) LSE:SOPH Sophos Group plc 02/08/18 6.5% 23.4% 2.0% NA NA NA NA NA (1.6%) IMPV Imperva, Inc. 02/08/18 8.6% 16.2% (0.0%) NA NA NA NA NA 10.7% FEYE FireEye, Inc. 02/08/18 6.7% 9.5% 4.4% (3.8%) 12.0% 4.0% 9.2% 2.5% 9.3% MOBL MobileIron, Inc. 02/08/18 14.3% 7.4% 5.1% (10.9%) 2.9% (3.3%) 10.5% 4.3% 20.0% MIME Mimecast Limited 02/12/18 6.7% 39.2% 3.6% 6.2% 36.3% 4.8% NA NA 3.1% RPD Rapid7, Inc. 02/12/18 14.3% 28.2% 0.6% (4.2%) 22.2% (0.7%) 20.4% 0.7% 0.9% VRNS Varonis Systems, Inc. 02/12/18 36.6% 34.6% 10.4% (32.2%) 22.8% 1.4% 20.7% 4.8% 0.5% QLYS Qualys, Inc. 02/12/18 5.8% 20.5% 1.5% 1.3% 20.0% 1.5% 20.0% 3.5% 7.5% TSX:ABT Absolute Software Corporation 02/13/18 0.9% 3.4% 0.4% NA NA NA NA NA (3.4%) CYBR CyberArk Software Ltd. 02/15/18 24.0% 24.9% 6.3% (14.1%) 16.9% 0.1% 20.0% 2.5% (1.9%) SAIL SailPoint Technologies Holdings, Inc. 02/21/18 55.6% 52.8% 21.8% (34.3%) 25.5% 0.0% 19.3% 10.2% 11.4% VDSI VASCO Data Security International, Inc. 02/21/18 6.6% 14.5% 8.1% NA NA NA 4.5% 0.3% (11.2%) ZIXI Zix Corporation 02/22/18 1.3% 7.8% 0.5% (0.6%) 5.1% (2.9%) 3.9% (3.9%) (0.9%) PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. 02/26/18 7.3% 28.3% 3.4% 0.1% 25.8% 1.8% NA NA 2.3% SPLK Splunk Inc. 03/01/18 27.7% 37.0% 7.4% (29.5%) 22.1% 0.4% 27.9% 4.2% 9.3% OKTA Okta, Inc. 03/07/18 13.9% 59.3% 0.6% 1.0% 48.1% 4.4% 32.9% 0.5% 8.8% Mean 12.4% 23.1% 3.9% (8.6%) 19.3% 0.3% 16.5% 1.9% 2.5% Median 8.3% 20.5% 3.4% (4.2%) 20.0% 0.4% 19.6% 1.1% 0.9% Source: Company filings, S&P Capital IQ and FactSet PIPER JAFFRAY 2 Impact of ASC 606 & Tax Reform Multiple companies stated impacts of ASC 606 and tax reform on their Q1 2018 and FY 2018 guidance ASC 606 . Eight companies (out of the 23 companies covered on Page 2) provided Q1 2018 and FY 2018 guidance reflecting the adoption of ASC 606 • Three (PFPT, RPD, VRNS) provided guidance under both ASC 606 and ASC 605 • Five (FEYE, QLYS, OKTA, SPLK, VDSI) provided guidance only under ASC 606 . Most significant impacts of ASC 606 have generally been related to perpetual software license revenue recognition, capitalization and amortization of sales commissions, and treatment of contract costs Tax Reform . Six companies (SYMC, AKAM, MOBL, CYBR, PANW, SPLK) discussed or quantified the impact of U.S. tax reform under the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017 . Most commonly stated impacts are re-measurement of deferred income tax liabilities / asset, repatriation (transition) taxes on foreign earnings, limitation on net operating loss carryforwards, and reduction of effective tax rates to ~22-25% PIPER JAFFRAY 3 Top Performing Security Stocks in 2018 Year to Date Stock Price Change % of 52-Week High OKTA 52.8% FTNT 99.8% SAIL 51.0% PANW 99.6% RPD 49.1% FEYE 99.4% PFPT 33.6% RPD 99.4% QLYS 30.7% SPLK 99.3% MIME 30.6% AKAM 99.0% PANW 28.5% MIME 98.9% FEYE 27.7% OKTA 98.8% SPLK 27.5% RDWR 98.7% MOBL 21.8% VRNS 98.7% VRNS 21.0% QLYS 98.6% CYBR 20.9% FSCT 98.5% FTNT 20.1% PFPT 98.3% IMPV 19.8% SAIL 91.5% RDWR 10.2% IMPV 90.7% FSCT 8.2% CYBR 90.0% AKAM 7.6% CHKP 88.1% CHKP 1.4% VDSI 85.7% ZIXI (2.5%) SYMC 79.6% SYMC (2.9%) ABT 73.8% ABT (5.4%) SOPH 73.4% VDSI (7.6%) MOBL 70.1% SOPH (13.1%) ZIXI 64.0% (40.0%) (20.0%) 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% YTD % Change % of 52-week high Source: S&P Capital IQ, as of 03/07/2018 PIPER JAFFRAY 4 YoY Revenue Growth by Quarter Post IPO for Recent Cybersecurity IPOs Recent cybersecurity IPOs have grown, on average, 30-40% on a YoY basis in the first 10-12 quarters post-IPO 100.0% 90.0% 80.1% 80.0% 71.4% 70.0% 66.2% 66.6% 1st to 3rd Quartile Median 60.0% 56.0% 54.8% High Low 50.3% 48.6% 48.9% 50.0% 47.2% 45.3% 45.6% 43.5% 42.2% 42.0% 40.9% 41.4% 38.7% 40.0% 37.3% 36.0% 36.1% 34.3% 31.6% 35.0% 29.0% 30.0% 32.0% 31.0% 30.1% 28.8% 27.0% 25.3% 25.1% 24.8% 25.2% 24.0% 24.0% 24.1% 20.0% 23.5% 22.6% 20.5% 17.7% 18.0% 16.6% 16.4% 10.0% 13.4% 11.5% 11.0% 11.5% 0.0% (10.0%) IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO IPO +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14 +15 +16 +17 +18 +19 +20 +21 +22 +23 +24 Includes: OKTA, PANW, SPLK, CYBR, MIME, RPD, QLYS, FEYE, IMPV, MOBL, PFPT, FSCT, SAIL Note: High exceeds 100% if no marker is displayed on the chart Source: S&P Capital IQ PIPER JAFFRAY 5 2018 “Rule of 40” – 2018E Revenue Growth + 2018E FCF Margin 12.0x MEDIAN EV/Rev: 2.5x 11.0x MEDIAN Rev Growth + FCF Margin: 14.8% OKTA 10.0x QLYS 9.0x PFPT SPLK y = 10.527x + 1.8648 SAIL CHKP 8.0x R² = 0.4072 7.0x MIME PANW 6.0x VRNS RPD 5.0x CYBR 2018E EV / Revenue FEYE FSCT AKAM LSE:SOPH FTNT 4.0x SYMC IMPV RDWR 3.0x ZIXI 2.0x TSX:ABT MOBL VDSI MEDIAN EV/Rev: 4.9x MEDIAN EV/Rev: 7.8x 1.0x SCWX MEDIAN Rev Growth + FCF Margin: 31.0% MEDIAN Rev Growth + FCF Margin: 51.4% 0.0x 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2018E Rev Growth + FCF Margin Source: S&P CapitalIQ as of 03/07/2018 PIPER JAFFRAY 6 Companies with High Quality Financial Models Continue to Trade at Premium Valuations Enterprise Value / LTM Revenue Multiple Stock Price Index LTM 10.0x 60.0% 50.0% 8.0x 40.0% 6.0x 30.0% 20.0% 4.0x 10.0% 2.0x 0.0% 0.0x -10.0% Revenue Growth + FCF Revenue Growth + FCF NASDAQ Revenue Growth + FCF HACK – Security ETF Margin > 40% Margin 20% to 40% Margin < 20% Security Company Median Valuation Multiples & Operating Metrics Revenue Growth + FCF Revenue Growth + FCF Revenue Growth + FCF Revenue Growth + FCF Revenue Growth + FCF Revenue Growth + FCF Margin > 40% Margin 20% to 40% Margin < 20% Margin > 40% Margin 20% to 40% Margin < 20% 6.9x 6.5x 4.9x 4.1x 20.1% 17.1% 19.5% 18.0% 2.3x 2.1x 9.1% 9.4% 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 24.4x 22.6x 22.2x 22.6% 24.1% 19.8x 14.8x 12.4% 9.5x 10.8% 6.9% 4.3% 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Source: Wall Street Research.
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