N°69 - January 17 2008 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS KREMLIN P. 1-3 Politics & Government c Dmitry Medvedev, or how to manufacture a « président » KREMLIN cMedvedev, or how to By the end of the January “truce”, Dmitry Medvedev, the candidate of United Russia (and of Vladimir manufacture a « président » Putin) for the presidency of Russia, launched his campaign. But in reality the “presidential manu- WAROFCLANS facturing machine” has been in operation since December. On slick paper or on television, the “story” cIgor Sechin and Nikolay that the Kremlin “spin doctors” produce surrounding Dmitry Medvedev is quickly evident : a young Patrushev have not let up man, modern, a believer, serious, who got his start in professional life at the same time as Pere- ALERT stroyka, not from the ranks of the KGB or other organs of power that followed it...The perfect sym- c Duma elections : Ingush bol of the New Russia. Everyone has noticed the vibrant hommage from the patriarch Alexis II to denounce voting fraud the candidate January 7 during the new year ceremony in the cathedral of Christ the Saviour in STATE DUMA Moscow. Vladimir Putin was not there and no one knows whether this represents one of the collat- c Yuri Luzhkov's friends eral effects of the report by Andrew Kuchins, the director of Russia and Eurasia programmes at the marginalised Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. He crafted, in his latest pa- c Belkovsky, Putin’s 40 billion and the war of the per on Russia, a political fiction scenario in which Putin was the victim of an assasination on Janu- « compromats » ary 7 2008 in Moscow... In fact, Putin went to a small church 650 kilometres north of Moscow, Veliky Ustyug, which is very unremarkable, except in Russian legend, since it is the native village of Ded P. 4-7 Business & Networks Morow, father Christmas... ALERTS cGazprom cIreland On the election campaign trail the first few days of January 2008, all journalists and political sci- FOCUS entists dissected the first declarations by Dmitry Medvedev. One scene seems especially significant cExxonMobil, the next target in the Medvedev “dialectic” for consumtion by the voters, but also the Russian and international me- for Gazprom dia. The scene takes place in Murmansk. He climbs aboard a trawler and, recorded by the eye of the FOCUS cameras, begins a dialogue with the captain and his crew. “My health is deteriorating but I can’t af- cMaghreb : Moscow worries ford to retire”, a sailor throws out. “On board, I make on average 40 000 rubles a month (the equiva- about French activism lent of a bit more than 1 000 euros), while my pension won’t be more than 6 000 (about 200 euros), ALERTS how do you want me to live on that” asks the sailor. Without hesitation, Medvedev announces a pro- cIgor Zavyalov c Be-200s found reform of the retirement system, a project that President Putin had made one of his priorities BEHIND THE SCENE but which has not concretely advanced much. But the conversation shifts to another sensitive subject cNorilsk Nickel : Deripaska : the Norwegians. The Barents Sea is a zone of conflict between Russian and Norway, which have ar- goes on the offensive gued for years over the line of their joint maritime frontier. It happens that Russian trawlers fishing FOCUS in contested zones are escorted uneremoniously into Russian waters by the Norwegian navy. “The Nor- c Investments : “a French wegian navy is applying intolerable pressure on us” says a member of the crew. “Our boats are pre- spring” in Moscow vented from working” interjects another who then elaborates, “in fact, under the USSR we were pro- FOCUS tected by the Soviet navy, which doesn’t exist anymore”. “During the Soviet Union, our boats were also cGazprombank, the Shamalov/Kovalchuk tandem's challenged?” inquires a theatricly candid Dmitry Medvedev. “Certainly not”, replies the captain, “at new asset the time we were protected by the Soviet navy, in contested zones, but also on the high seas. Today nobody is afraid of us or respects us”. Medvedev notes that fear is not a sentiment that Russia wants P. 8 Regions & CIS to inspire in its neighbours and repeats the word respect. He throws out another promise : the Russ- CASPIAN ian navy will rapidly again be operational. “I hope you understand why it doesn’t protect you today...We c Moscow-Astana : gas don’t have any ships...” This exchange was instructive because it gives an idea of the presidential rhet- for oil oric that Medvedev will repeat all during the campaign until March. Prority for social matters, and SUBSCRIPTION for improvement of living conditions for the public, like Vladimir Putin recalled before the Federa- Print Edition tion Council January 15. More should be known January 29, on the occasion of the speech pronounced (23 issues, airmailed overseas) by Medvedev before the Russian lawyers association, managed by his friend Pavel Krasheninnikov. €770 TTC The Web Pack But one “detail” nevertheless remains to be clarified : what is the nature of the contract concluded (Print Edition between Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev? No-one knows, except for those involved and even + PDF + archives acess) then, given their lack of appetite for confidence, it’s likely that there exists between them a certain € 880 TTC dose of “unspoken” understandings. Without the support of Vladimir Putin, Medvedev is nothing. An The Premium opinion poll, published January 15 2008 in Moscow, indicated that 42% of persons questioned had con- Subscription fidence in Dmitry Medvedev because Vladimir Putin supported him.Only 4% of those polled gave any (Print Edition + PDF + access credit to the personal qualities of the presidential candidate. This is low and indicates that the con- to all the website contents) struction proposed to the voters will only hold the road if Dmitry Medvedev gives proof of flawless loy- € 1200 TTC alty and sticks without reservations to the priorities set for him by his “Prime minister”. d www.russia-intelligence.fr RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government WAR OF CLANS c Igor Sechin and Nikolay Patrushev have not let up One might have been led to believe that the designation by inplausible position in view of the fact that Kommersant had Vladimir Putin of Dmitry Medvedev to succeed him in the recordings and copies of the interviews targetted by Shwartzman Kremlin next March might have been enough to clear the – the latter took a different aim. Today, he has acknowledged his already-charged atmosphere which had reigned over the position on the «velvet reprivatisation». This was the outcome of Kremlin since the beginning of autumn. In the hours that fol- an interview accorded to the Financial Times in late December. lowed the annointing of the heir on December 10, it is true He even announced the launching of a foundation baptised that the dissaray of Igor Sechin, Nikolay Patrushev or «Transparent Russia». Shwartzman now poses as a defender of Vladimir Ustinov and their allies had been profound. After the public defrauded by the oligarchs during the 1990s. It is not having vainly pushed the president to seek a third term, they known whether he foresees a political career, but his foothold believed they had reclaimed the upper hand by having secu- could be promising. An opinion poll conducted in late December red the selection of one of theirs, Viktor Zubkov, to head the by the very serious Levada centre indicated that 46% of the popu- government in September.In contrast, the clan «on the other lation supported, in varying levels, the idea of a «velvet reprivati- side» did not hide its satisfaction. Alisher Usmanov, Viktor sation». We wish to underline anecdotally that the co-founder of Cherkesov or Alexey Kudrin – to name only them – believed «Transparent Russia» is none other than Alexey Mitrofanov, the they had won «the mother of all battles» and hoped that this former right-hand man of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who had drawn would christalise in a a rapid and visible way. But a month closer to the president of the Federal Council Sergey Mironov in later, it seemed as if matters were much less obvious.True, the 2007. «casting» by Vladimir Putin had been a defeat for the move- ment gravitating around Igor Sechin and Nikolay Patrushev. A high-risk trial. In this context, it is possible that the weeks Nevertheless no spectacular reversal in the balance of power between now and the presidential vote of March 2 risk being fairly has taken place in Moscow. Far from letting up, the losers of agitated in the wings. Even more so since a subject at the direct December 10 have organised a counter-attack and let it be origin of the clans war – the «Tri kita» affair – will experience new understood that their interests would have to be taken into developments. It is known that this affair of contraband in equip- consideration beyond the presidential elections this coming ment is particularly sensitive since it implicates high FSB officials March 2. (Russia Intelligence n°63 of October 11 2007). In the spring of 2006, it had even cost Vladimir Ustinov his post as prosecutor The manoeuvers by Alexandre Bastyrkin. The first stri- general, when he sought to muffle the case to protect his accom- king news of the year in Russia was the decision by the plice Patrushev. But the «Tri kita» preliminary inquiry is officially Basmannyi court in Moscow to extend the temporary deten- closed and it has been transmitted by the investigating official, tion of the vice-minister of Finance, Sergey Storchak until Vladimir Loskutov, to the general prosecutor’s office.