Israel and the Middle East News Update Tuesday, June 28 Headlines: Bibi, Erdogan Defend Reconciliation Deal Ahead of Security Cabinet Decision Israelis Push Back Against Turkey Normalization Deal Jews Forbidden Entry to Temple Mount After Riots Deputy Chief of Staff: Next War, Rockets Will Hit Heart of Israel In Gaza, UN Chief Calls on Lifting Suffocating Blockade of the Strip Israel Seeks Faster Production of Iron Dome Batteries Israel’s Military Chief Orders to Revoke Controversial ‘Hannibal’ Directive Seeking Improved Ties with Russia, Turkey Apologizes for Downing Jet Commentary: Ha’aretz: “Israel’s Deal with Turkey Could Stave Off Next Gaza War” By Amos Harel, Senior Military and Defense Correspondent, Ha'aretz Al-Monitor: “Why So Many of Israel’s Security Hawks Have Become Doves” By Mazal Mualem, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor News Excerpts June 28, 2016 Ma’ariv Bibi, Erdogan Defend Deal Ahead of Security Cabinet Decision Both leaders—Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan— defended the agreement, with Netanyahu saying it was important and promoted vital Israeli interests, and Erdogan stating all the Turkish terms were met. Reports note the security cabinet—the only body empowered to disqualify the agreement—is due to vote on it tomorrow. Netanyahu is expected to enjoy the support of a majority of security cabinet members. The probable exceptions are Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the Jewish Home ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked. See also, “Netanyahu Emphasizes Strategic Benefit of Turkey Agreement” (BICOM) Times of Israel Israelis Push Back Against Turkey Normalization Deal More than half of the Israelis are against a deal to restore ties with Turkey, a Channel 10 poll released Monday found, as politicians and families of slain soldiers criticized the agreement. Out of 600 respondents in the survey, 33% voiced support, 56% were opposed and 11% were undecided. There was significantly greater support for the deal among the 100 Arab Israelis surveyed — 72% supported it, compared to just 24% of the 500 Jews polled. Jewish Israelis were overwhelmingly opposed, with 65% saying they did not support the deal. See also, “Families Blast Turkey Deal for Failing to Bring Soldiers’ Bodies Home from Gaza” (Times of Israel) Ynet News Jews Forbidden Entry to Temple Mount After Riots Following violent protests in the Temple Mount area over the last two days, the police announced on Tuesday morning its intention to prevent tourists and Jewish Israelis from visiting the holy site until the end of Ramadan in an effort to calm tensions. The protests were a result of Muslim visitors’ complaints over a supposed violation of the status-quo, which forbids Jews from visiting the Temple Mount during the Muslim holy month. The police initially said that it would make efforts to allow these visits to go on as usual, but eventually changed its mind. See also, "Jordan Condemns Israel for Disturbances on Temple Mount" (Ynet News) Arutz Sheva Deputy Chief of Staff: Next War, Rockets Will Hit Heart of Israel Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan, speaking at a conference on Monday shared some projections of what a future conflict in Lebanon would bring to the home front in Israel's heartland. "In the 2nd Lebanon war, 70 tons of explosive warheads hit Israel. Let's estimate the next war will bring four times that and round up. So we're talking about 300 tons per month. That's equal to what our Air Force drops in five hours." However, Golan argued, the challenge was not insurmountable. "Don't you think we can withstand this? Do we not have a national sense of fortitude?". He also offered statistics that brighten the picture somewhat, "Of all the rockets fired up till now, only 4% have hit in built up areas, and only 1% have hit buildings directly." 2 Jerusalem Post In Gaza, UN Chief Calls on Lifting Suffocating Blockade of Strip UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Israel to lift the "suffocating" blockade on the Gaza Strip, a day after Israel said the naval blockade would continue after reaching a deal with Turkey to normalize ties. During a visit to the coastal strip, Ban told reporters: "The closure of Gaza suffocates its people, stifles its economy and impede reconstruction effort, it is a collective punishment for which there must accountability." See also, “PM to Visiting UN Chief: Help Get Soldiers Bodies Back from Hamas” (Times of Israel) See also, “UNRWA School in Gaza Hides Map of Historic Palestine as Ban Visits” (Times of Israel) Jerusalem Post Israel Seeks Faster Production of Iron Dome Batteries Israel is seeking sped up production of Iron Dome batteries, Moshe Patel, Director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, revealed on Monday. The statement comes as Hamas continues to produce thousands of rockets in Gaza, Hezbollah imports rockets and missiles from Iran and Syria, and as ISIS joins the list of threats to the Israeli home front. Speaking at the Israel Air Missile Defense Conference at Rishon Lezion, Patel said Israel is in talks with Iron Dome’s maker, Rafael, and co- producer, the US defense company Raytheon, to see which company could increase production of Iron Dome batteries. Ha’aretz Israel’s Military Chief Orders to Revoke ‘Hannibal’ Directive Israel's military chief has recently ordered to revoke the so-called Hannibal procedure, aimed at averting soldiers' capture even at a risk of endangering them, and formulate a new protocol in its place. A senior source in the Israel Defense Forces said Monday night that Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot's orders were given several weeks ago. Currently, the procedure requires soldiers to try and thwart being captured even if doing so – for instance, by shooting at the abductors – might endanger the captured soldier’s life. Though the procedure doesn’t permit soldiers to intentionally kill a kidnapped comrade, many officers and soldiers in the field have interpreted it in this way. See also, “IDF to Reform Controversial Anti-Kidnapping Hannibal Protocol” (Jerusalem Post) New York Times Seeking Improved Russian Ties, Turkey Apologizes Downing Jet Turkey continued its diplomatic fence mending on Monday, apologizing for downing a Russian jet near its border with Syria last year. In a letter to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday, the same day Turkey announced a rapprochement with Israel, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed regret about the November episode, in which Turkish forces shot down a Russian warplane that Turkey said had violated its airspace. In his letter to Mr. Putin, Mr. Erdogan said he “would like to inform the family of the deceased Russian pilot that I share their pain and to offer my condolences to them,” according to a statement from Turkey’s presidential spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin. The effort to repair relations with Russia began the same day that Turkey and Israel announced an agreement to resume full diplomatic relations. See also, “Turkey Will Not Compensate Russia Over Shooting Down of Jet” (The Guardian) See also, “Turkey Moves to Restore Relations with Russia and Israel on the Same Day” (Huffington Post) 3 Ha’aretz – June 27, 2016 Israel's Deal with Turkey Could Stave Off Next Gaza War By Amos Harel The Israel-Turkey reconciliation deal is apparently the lesser of evils; neither a rare strategic achievement nor the national humiliation that some of Benjamin Netanyahu’s rivals claim. Ironically, it’s the Prime Minister’s Office that’s conveying peace and reconciliation, while opposition leader Isaac Herzog makes empty speeches about the naval commandos’ lost honor. The agreement was necessitated by circumstance. For six years Israel has been on the diplomatic outs with the country that had been its best ally in the region. Ties between the two will never be as close as they were before. As long as Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains in charge, we probably can’t expect more than an economic upgrade predicated on the natural-gas deal (the subject of deep disagreement in Israel) and an easing of Ankara’s hostility. The Mavi Marmara incident was an obstacle that had to be removed, so Israel had to compromise, and the outcome doesn’t seem intolerable. Israel had to give way because it’s largely to blame for the Marmara incident. In May 2010, the government and military walked into a trap laid by the Humanitarian Relief Foundation, a violent bunch of Islamic extremists with ties to Erdogan and his party. The Marmara incident, despite innumerable efforts to rewrite its history, was handled badly. The Netanyahu-Ehud Barak government insisted on banging its head into a brick wall and didn’t seriously consider letting the Turkish flotilla reach Gaza. The tight blockade – the Defense Ministry even banned coriander – was portrayed as necessary and appropriate payback to Hamas, which at the time still held Gilad Shalit. Of course, the government eased the blockade, under international pressure, shortly after the Marmara incident. The failure was all-encompassing. The political leadersp barely inquired into the military preparations. (“We say the what, they say the how” was how then-Defense Minister Barak justified the approach to the Turkel committee that examined the incident.) Then-Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi didn’t bother to visit the situation room during the operation. Military Intelligence missed the significance of details the flotilla’s organizers sent out on social media about their plans. And the navy’s operational plan didn’t suit the circumstances. The bottom line is that naval commandos armed mainly with paint guns slid down a rope to the ship’s deck to find dozens of violent activists waiting for them with clubs and chains.