Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, June 28

Headlines:  Bibi, Erdogan Defend Reconciliation Deal Ahead of Security Cabinet Decision  Israelis Push Back Against Turkey Normalization Deal  Jews Forbidden Entry to Temple Mount After Riots  Deputy Chief of Staff: Next War, Rockets Will Hit Heart of  In Gaza, UN Chief Calls on Lifting Suffocating Blockade of the Strip  Israel Seeks Faster Production of Iron Dome Batteries  Israel’s Military Chief Orders to Revoke Controversial ‘Hannibal’ Directive  Seeking Improved Ties with Russia, Turkey Apologizes for Downing Jet

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Israel’s Deal with Turkey Could Stave Off Next ”  By Amos Harel, Senior Military and Defense Correspondent, Ha'aretz  Al-Monitor: “Why So Many of Israel’s Security Hawks Have Become Doves”  By Mazal Mualem, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts June 28, 2016

Ma’ariv Bibi, Erdogan Defend Deal Ahead of Security Cabinet Decision Both leaders—Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan— defended the agreement, with Netanyahu saying it was important and promoted vital Israeli interests, and Erdogan stating all the Turkish terms were met. Reports note the security cabinet—the only body empowered to disqualify the agreement—is due to vote on it tomorrow. Netanyahu is expected to enjoy the support of a majority of security cabinet members. The probable exceptions are Defense Minister and the Jewish Home ministers and Ayelet Shaked. See also, “Netanyahu Emphasizes Strategic Benefit of Turkey Agreement” (BICOM)

Times of Israel Israelis Push Back Against Turkey Normalization Deal More than half of the Israelis are against a deal to restore ties with Turkey, a Channel 10 poll released Monday found, as politicians and families of slain soldiers criticized the agreement. Out of 600 respondents in the survey, 33% voiced support, 56% were opposed and 11% were undecided. There was significantly greater support for the deal among the 100 Arab Israelis surveyed — 72% supported it, compared to just 24% of the 500 Jews polled. Jewish Israelis were overwhelmingly opposed, with 65% saying they did not support the deal. See also, “Families Blast Turkey Deal for Failing to Bring Soldiers’ Bodies Home from Gaza” (Times of Israel)

Ynet News Jews Forbidden Entry to Temple Mount After Riots Following violent protests in the Temple Mount area over the last two days, the police announced on Tuesday morning its intention to prevent tourists and Jewish Israelis from visiting the holy site until the end of Ramadan in an effort to calm tensions. The protests were a result of Muslim visitors’ complaints over a supposed violation of the status-quo, which forbids Jews from visiting the Temple Mount during the Muslim holy month. The police initially said that it would make efforts to allow these visits to go on as usual, but eventually changed its mind. See also, "Jordan Condemns Israel for Disturbances on Temple Mount" (Ynet News)

Arutz Sheva Deputy Chief of Staff: Next War, Rockets Will Hit Heart of Israel Deputy Chief of Staff , speaking at a conference on Monday shared some projections of what a future conflict in Lebanon would bring to the home front in Israel's heartland. "In the 2nd Lebanon war, 70 tons of explosive warheads hit Israel. Let's estimate the next war will bring four times that and round up. So we're talking about 300 tons per month. That's equal to what our Air Force drops in five hours." However, Golan argued, the challenge was not insurmountable. "Don't you think we can withstand this? Do we not have a national sense of fortitude?". He also offered statistics that brighten the picture somewhat, "Of all the rockets fired up till now, only 4% have hit in built up areas, and only 1% have hit buildings directly." 2

Jerusalem Post In Gaza, UN Chief Calls on Lifting Suffocating Blockade of Strip UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Israel to lift the "suffocating" blockade on the Gaza Strip, a day after Israel said the naval blockade would continue after reaching a deal with Turkey to normalize ties. During a visit to the coastal strip, Ban told reporters: "The closure of Gaza suffocates its people, stifles its economy and impede reconstruction effort, it is a collective punishment for which there must accountability." See also, “PM to Visiting UN Chief: Help Get Soldiers Bodies Back from ” (Times of Israel) See also, “UNRWA School in Gaza Hides Map of Historic Palestine as Ban Visits” (Times of Israel)

Jerusalem Post Israel Seeks Faster Production of Iron Dome Batteries Israel is seeking sped up production of Iron Dome batteries, Moshe Patel, Director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, revealed on Monday. The statement comes as Hamas continues to produce thousands of rockets in Gaza, imports rockets and missiles from Iran and Syria, and as ISIS joins the list of threats to the Israeli home front. Speaking at the Israel Air Missile Defense Conference at Rishon Lezion, Patel said Israel is in talks with Iron Dome’s maker, Rafael, and co- producer, the US defense company Raytheon, to see which company could increase production of Iron Dome batteries.

Ha’aretz Israel’s Military Chief Orders to Revoke ‘Hannibal’ Directive Israel's military chief has recently ordered to revoke the so-called Hannibal procedure, aimed at averting soldiers' capture even at a risk of endangering them, and formulate a new protocol in its place. A senior source in the said Monday night that Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot's orders were given several weeks ago. Currently, the procedure requires soldiers to try and thwart being captured even if doing so – for instance, by shooting at the abductors – might endanger the captured soldier’s life. Though the procedure doesn’t permit soldiers to intentionally kill a kidnapped comrade, many officers and soldiers in the field have interpreted it in this way. See also, “IDF to Reform Controversial Anti-Kidnapping Hannibal Protocol” (Jerusalem Post)

New York Times Seeking Improved Russian Ties, Turkey Apologizes Downing Jet Turkey continued its diplomatic fence mending on Monday, apologizing for downing a Russian jet near its border with Syria last year. In a letter to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday, the same day Turkey announced a rapprochement with Israel, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed regret about the November episode, in which Turkish forces shot down a Russian warplane that Turkey said had violated its airspace. In his letter to Mr. Putin, Mr. Erdogan said he “would like to inform the family of the deceased Russian pilot that I share their pain and to offer my condolences to them,” according to a statement from Turkey’s presidential spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin. The effort to repair relations with Russia began the same day that Turkey and Israel announced an agreement to resume full diplomatic relations. See also, “Turkey Will Not Compensate Russia Over Shooting Down of Jet” (The Guardian) See also, “Turkey Moves to Restore Relations with Russia and Israel on the Same Day” (Huffington Post) 3

Ha’aretz – June 27, 2016 Israel's Deal with Turkey Could Stave Off Next Gaza War By Amos Harel  The Israel-Turkey reconciliation deal is apparently the lesser of evils; neither a rare strategic achievement nor the national humiliation that some of ’s rivals claim. Ironically, it’s the Prime Minister’s Office that’s conveying peace and reconciliation, while opposition leader Isaac Herzog makes empty speeches about the naval commandos’ lost honor.  The agreement was necessitated by circumstance. For six years Israel has been on the diplomatic outs with the country that had been its best ally in the region. Ties between the two will never be as close as they were before.  As long as Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains in charge, we probably can’t expect more than an economic upgrade predicated on the natural-gas deal (the subject of deep disagreement in Israel) and an easing of Ankara’s hostility. The Mavi Marmara incident was an obstacle that had to be removed, so Israel had to compromise, and the outcome doesn’t seem intolerable.  Israel had to give way because it’s largely to blame for the Marmara incident. In May 2010, the government and military walked into a trap laid by the Humanitarian Relief Foundation, a violent bunch of Islamic extremists with ties to Erdogan and his party.  The Marmara incident, despite innumerable efforts to rewrite its history, was handled badly. The Netanyahu- government insisted on banging its head into a brick wall and didn’t seriously consider letting the Turkish flotilla reach Gaza. The tight blockade – the Defense Ministry even banned coriander – was portrayed as necessary and appropriate payback to Hamas, which at the time still held . Of course, the government eased the blockade, under international pressure, shortly after the Marmara incident.  The failure was all-encompassing. The political leadersp barely inquired into the military preparations. (“We say the what, they say the how” was how then-Defense Minister Barak justified the approach to the Turkel committee that examined the incident.)  Then-Chief of Staff didn’t bother to visit the situation room during the operation. Military Intelligence missed the significance of details the flotilla’s organizers sent out on social media about their plans. And the navy’s operational plan didn’t suit the circumstances.  The bottom line is that naval commandos armed mainly with paint guns slid down a rope to the ship’s deck to find dozens of violent activists waiting for them with clubs and chains. A few commandos were taken hostage and brought below deck, where they were abused by the Turks (whom the international media called “peace activists”) before being rescued by their fellow commandos.  Amid this danger, the Israelis were forced to use live fire. The result was the killing of nine Turks – and a crisis that took six years to resolve.

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 The agreement is expected to improve the two countries’ coordination on matters such as the military successes of the alliance behind the Assad regime in Syria. But the reconciliation won’t translate into joint training of air force pilots, as in the ‘90s, and it’s doubtful it will lead to major new arms deals.  The main benefit the parties expect, in addition to natural-gas trade and the expansion of tourism (even though the warning regarding attacks on Israeli tourists in Turkey by the Islamic State still stands), has to do with Gaza. Israel gains another channel of mediation and restraint vis-a-vis the Hamas government, in addition to the ties between the group’s leaders in the Strip, Egypt and Qatar. But separate channels can also be a source of competition and friction, as seen in the .  As a result, the economic question is even more important than the diplomatic talks. The No. 1 risk of a new war with Hamas is based on Gaza’s harsh living conditions. At first, Turkey will help transport goods via Ashdod Port and with Israeli security supervision. (Turkey had to waive its demand for the complete lifting of the blockade.)  Later, aid will include the supply of drinking water and the construction of a new hospital in Gaza. These steps could definitely help avoid a new war. Maybe in the future it will even be possible to push the idea of building an artificial island to serve as a port for Gaza, as Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz has proposed.  It seems these proposals should seriously be considered; after all, intransigence over coriander led to flotillas and the Mavi Marmara, and Israeli inflexibility over easing economic sanctions helped bring on the war two years ago (and Israel increased fourfold the volume of goods entering Gaza after that war).  Israel also takes credit for Turkey’s promise to close Hamas’ international headquarters on its territory, even though Saleh Arouri, the head of the office, moved the operations base to the Gulf a few months ago.  Can Turkey help bring back from Gaza the two Israeli civilians and the bodies of two Israeli soldiers that Hamas holds there? For now, it seems unlikely. Hamas wants Israel to release Palestinian prisoners in return, and Netanyahu will have a hard time making additional concessions amid criticism from the right over the reconciliation with Turkey, including the reservations of Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Amos Harel is one of Israel's leading media experts on military and defense issues. He has been the military correspondent and defense analyst for Ha'aretz for the last 12 years. In this role, he has written extensively about Israel's ongoing fight against terrorist organizations, its battles during the Palestinian Intifadah (uprising) and the last war in Lebanon.

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Al-Monitor – June 27, 2016 Why So Many of Israel's Security Hawks Have Become Doves By Mazal Mualem  When the chairman of the argued June 25 that serving in the and the turns their chiefs into leftists, it kicked off a political storm. The public commotion sidelined an opportunity to hold a real and significant discussion of why the Israeli security chiefs have concluded that a peace agreement with the Palestinians will best serve Israeli interests. member David Bitan's remarks, which he made in an interview at a cultural event in Beersheba, were a populist counter-response to the harsh criticism former generals Moshe Ya'alon and Ehud Barak directed at the prime minister at the Herzliya conference on June 16.  The chairman of the coalition scored double points: He ingratiated himself to Netanyahu and attacked the leftist generals in a style that will likely only add to his appeal among right-wing voters. Bitan is a veteran Likud operative. For years, he served as the head of the Rishon LeZion Likud branch office before he was elected to the Knesset. He isn’t among the radical, ideological right in the party, but falls in line with what he sees as the prevailing sentiment. In the interview on Saturday he related how , before he was appointed chief of the Mossad, came to him at the Likud office in Rishon LeZion and sought to run on the party's list for the Knesset.  ''Dagan was an extreme rightist when he entered the Mossad, but came out the opposite. … Something happens to you over the years in these positions. I believed it’s a development that happened to them in that job,” said Bitan. In his view, something bad happened during their service. They turn, God help us, “leftists.” Former Shin Bet chief and present politician thought Bitan overstepped and should retract his vitriolic statement, which was meant to mask “paralysis, passivity and a lack of progress in the policy of the government of Israel.”  While Peri is right, his response missed the point. It would have been an excellent opportunity to ask the most pertinent question in this context: Why do so many senior officers who devotedly served the state of Israel for decades, in the most sensitive and critical positions in the security establishment — even those who had a hawkish worldview — moderate politically during their time in the job? Is it logical that so many good people exposed to so much intelligence could be wrong? And what do they discover that causes them to change?  We can safely assume that most leaders of the Shin Bet, Mossad and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were not radical right-wingers when they started their service in the various security organizations — not even Dagan, who was the head of the election-day headquarters for former Prime Minister in 2002, when he ran for leadership of the Likud. Dagan, like most chiefs of staff and intelligence heads, was on the center-left politically. Historically, the vast majority of generals who entered politics found their home in Labor. The list is long: former Prime Minister , former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and such military leaders as Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, , , , and others. Outside the party arena, many of them identified and presently identify with diplomatic initiatives. 6

 The Likud has always suffered from a sense of inferiority over the stream of generals that flowed to Labor. That is why Sharon, an IDF general, was the pride of the Likud. Later he was joined by Gen. (res.) , former chiefs of staff and Moshe Ya'alon, and former Shin Bet chief . They commanded great respect and admiration at all Likud field offices because of their pedigrees and were named defense minister at various periods (except for Dichter, who served as minister of public security).  What happened to them later? Sharon led the 2005 disengagement from Gaza and created a new centrist political framework in Kadima. Mofaz and Dichter joined him. Ya'alon, who came from Mapai origins and went the opposite direction to the Likud, left the party in May.  The prize-winning documentary film "The Gatekeepers," which came out in 2012, presented interviews with six former Shin Bet heads: Dichter, Peri, Ayalon, , and . They had seen the occupation at close hand and worked systemically to maintain it. They fought Palestinian terrorism and intifadas — yet in the film, they said that they do not believe in solving the conflict by force. Isn’t there something here to think about and discuss? Should we leave it at Bitan’s insulting generalization that everyone is “leftist,” dismissing their judgment?  The director of the film, Dror Moreh, said in an interview with that the idea for "The Gatekeepers" was hatched when he interviewed Dov Weissglass, once Sharon’s chief of staff, for another movie. Weissglass told him that Sharon was greatly influenced by an article that ran in Yedioth Ahronoth in 2003, in which four Shin Bet chiefs warned, “If Sharon continues to run the country as he has until now, Israel will reach a dead end.” Weissglass told Moreh that this article deeply touched Sharon, since the criticism came from inside the system, from the heart of the security establishment, the places that Sharon most respected.  It’s hard not to make a comparison here to Netanyahu, who in recent years has absorbed criticism again and again from senior security establishment figures who served under him. It’s true, sometimes the criticism is hurtful and tainted by politics and personal score- keeping, but sometimes it’s to the point and could at least offer food for thought for the prime minister. Unfortunately, he prefers to label his critics leftists to avoid dealing with the substance of their critiques and to make more political hay. Mazal Mualem is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse and formerly the senior political correspondent for Ma’ariv and Ha’aretz. She also presents a weekly TV show covering social issues on the Knesset channel.

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