Lustick: Israel Needs a New Map

Israel Needs a New Map

Dr. Lustick is the Bess W. Heyman Chair Professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania. The following is the edited text of his remarks at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on February 26, 2013, sponsored by the Foundation for Middle East Peace and the Middle East Policy Council.

n November 2010, I spent a long and I was therefore not surprised at this fascinating evening with a dozen vet- meeting with the Gush Emunim activists eran settlers from the ideological core in 2010 when not a single one of them of the movement previously known was capable of answering that question. Ias Gush Emunim. I was in their settlement One settler declared that — for reasons he to discuss ha-matzav (the situation) with did not explain — the question itself was these Jews, who were living the political unfair. He was actually told by his col- consequences of their ideology every day. leagues, “No, actually, we have to realize At the end of a long evening, I asked them this is a fair question,” but he insisted it a question I’ve asked almost every Israeli was unfair. What was striking was the I have met for the last 15 years: Can you glum realization that none of those pres- describe a future for the country that you ent, usually so voluble and confident on so like and that you think is possible? When I many topics, could describe a future that first began asking this question in the late in its basic outlines they themselves could 1990s, Israeli Jews in the center-left of the consider both satisfying and attainable. political spectrum had little difficulty an- The angst that filled their room that swering with one version or another of the night is part of a larger, oft-commented- two-state solution. On the other hand, apart upon sense of depression, worry, even from those who would simply say they existential dread that has settled upon trusted in HaShem (God) to make things the Jewish state. A revealing sign of this work out, I had very little luck finding Is- abiding mood is the prevalence in Israeli raeli Jews on the right side of the spectrum political discussions of conditional sen- capable of describing a future for the state tences in which the main clause refers and its relationship with the Arabs and the to the survival of the state. For example: region as a whole that they liked and that “If Iran gets nuclear weapons, the state they thought was possible. But by the early will not survive”; “If settlements are not 2000s, it was not only the right that had built, the state will not survive”; “If more difficulty answering this question; few in settlements are built, the state will not the center or left could do so, either. survive”; “If the youth are not brought to © 2013, The Author Middle East Policy © 2013, Middle East Policy Council

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believe in the Zionist dream, the state will Israel’s relationship to the Palestinians or not survive”; “If the education system is in its overall predicament. I might note not improved, the state will not survive”; that it’s fascinating to look at the biggest “If the Galilee, Jerusalem and the Negev surprise in that election: the success of are not settled with Jews, the state will not Yesh Atid, which won 19 seats. What does survive”; “If a two-state solution is not the name of that party mean? “There is a implemented, the state will not survive”; Future.” The fact that Yesh Atid wins with “If Israel abandons Judea and Samaria, that name is a fascinating indicator that, as the state will not survive”; “If the Golan is I have suggested, just about everybody is returned to Syria, the state will not sur- asking the question “Is there a future?” vive”; “If aliyah (immigration) does not What is the implication for Israel of a increase, the state will not survive”; “If combination of an abiding sense of numer- Israel remains internally divided, the state ous threats to the state’s very existence and will not survive”; “If hasbara (propaganda) a conviction that the country’s political is not improved, the state will not survive”; system is paralyzed? What is the underly- “If the Haredim (the ultra-orthodox) and ing logic that produces this terrible com- the Arab citizens of the country are not bination of public beliefs? How can this required to assume the full responsibilities contemporary version of “as sheep going of citizenship, the state will not survive”; to the slaughter” be replaced by a healthier, “If Palestinian refugees are given the right vigorous posture toward the challenges to return, the state will not survive”; “If the facing Israel? global delegitimization campaign is not To begin, let us establish the pattern defeated, the state will not survive”; “If the of stagnation in Israel that contributes to Arab peace initiative is not acted upon, the the sense of collective — if not so often state will not survive.” personal or individual — doom. The key In a recent study, Israeli scholar Uriel problem facing the country for the last 45 Abulof presented data showing that in the years is what to do with the years between 1996 and 2001, an average and its large Palestinian population. On the of 147 articles per year appeared in Haaretz one hand, any reader of the Israeli press is focused on an existential threat to the coun- familiar with the merry-go-round of dead- try. In the next six years following 2001, lines, scandals, protests, career implosions, that average increased from 147 to 244 confrontations, court decisions, demon- articles a year, an increase of 65 percent. strations, new settlement construction, Another refrain — second to the theme partial restraints on settlements, high-level that Israel is in danger and is not going to meetings, settler vigilantism, Palestinian survive, based on any one of a multitude terrorism, rockets on Israel from Gaza, of threats — is just as common, expressing bombings and invasions of Gaza, liquida- and usually bemoaning the impossibil- tions, retaliations, human-rights challenges ity of significant change taking place in and UN votes. Like a carousel, news of the Israeli politics or in Israeli policies on key conflict and the peace process goes on and issues before the country. Even the moder- on, but it goes nowhere. ately surprising outcome of Israel’s recent We can test this claim by a simple elections has led no serious observers to thought experiment. Let’s look at the past, imagine a substantial change resulting in starting from the present, in approximately

26 Lustick: Israel Needs a New Map

five-year chunks. Notice what happens if hyde” for 20 years. The idea, as Weissglass we go back five years. In the five years put it, was to receive a “certificate of no since then, what has changed, if anything, one to talk to” from the international com- in the trajectory of the West Bank and its munity that would protect the West Bank relationship to Israel? In 2007, five years from any diplomatic or political process before the recent war in Gaza, Israel was likely to affect settlements and de facto an- recovering from an attack against Hezbol- nexation. This was achieved by a unilateral lah in Lebanon that developed into a major withdrawal from Gaza, condemnation of political and military debacle, putting an the Hamas government there as a terrorist effective end to the political prospects of organization, and a quarantine/blockade of the relatively moderate, Olmert-led, Kad- that territory. Disengagement from Gaza ima-Labor coalition government. Within was accompanied then by an all-out effort eight months, it would seek unsuccessfully to discredit and destroy Yasser Arafat as to redeem itself with an immensely de- leader of the Palestinians. structive, politically costly in international To continue for one more cycle, five terms but almost casualty-free, war in years farther in the past, consider the status Gaza to punish Hamas for rocket attacks. of the West Bank in 1997. Netanyahu had No serious negotiations were underway in come to power in the aftermath of a hor- 2007 and none are now. The political mood rific series of terrorist bombings and Israeli in Israel was more or less what it is now: retaliations against Palestinians. On the outwardly defiant, inwardly depressed and ground and in the diplomatic arena, Netan- angry. This is the mood that helped bring yahu abandoned any effort to use the Oslo to power a coalition government run by Accords as a partnership with Palestin- the Likud under Benjamin Netanyahu and ian leaders, substituting instead legalistic the hard-right Yisrael Beiteinu party. These exploitation of Oslo’s complex provisions two parties, now merged, are the core of to thwart any progress toward implementa- the new Israeli government. tion of a two-state solution and to destroy As part of our thought experiment, the image of the Palestinian Authority as a let’s push back the clock five more potential partner, all the while expanding years. In 2002, Israel under Ariel Sharon settlements and road construction to inte- launched a major operation in Gaza in grate the West Bank as tightly as possible response to suicide bombings in the second into Israel. Intifada, along with the largest military What can we learn from this exercise operation in the West Bank since the 1967 of going back in time for three chunks of war. Hundreds of Palestinians were killed, five years? The most striking thing is how thousands detained. A policy of closing much continuity is displayed despite all the Israel to West Bank Palestinians, begun ups and downs of the last 16 years. That in the early 1990s, was escalated with the period included Netanyahu’s defeat by a construction of the “separation barrier.” Labor Party peace candidate, Ehud Barak; A similar logic lay behind Sharon’s the Clinton-hosted Camp David summit; decision to disengage from the Gaza Strip, the death of Arafat; the disengagement along with an attempt to put the already from Gaza; several wars or mini-wars; moribund peace process into what his countless terrorist attacks and retaliations; adviser Dov Weissglass called “formalde- several Israeli elections; several wars in

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the region; two changes in the party con- ress on this front with Bibi Netanyahu in trolling the White House; the upheavals of the prime minister’s office. the Arab Spring; civil war in Syria; the end The fact is that, with Rabin’s assas- of the Israeli-Turkish alliance; and the rise sination in 1995 and Peres’s incompetence of a global boycott, divestment and sanc- and timidity as his successor, followed tions movement targeting Israel and Israeli by Netanyahu’s systematic sabotage of policies. Despite all this, virtually nothing Oslo and Barak’s betrayal of it, the peace has changed to deflect the trajectory of the process was largely dead even before West Bank and its relationship to Israel as the outbreak of the second Intifada. The a tightly subordinated, politically impotent, horrors of that conflict then sealed its fate and developmentally stagnant region. by triggering a mass alienation of centrist Nor can one detect any significant Israelis that corresponded to a comparable effect on the steady expansion of Israeli shift among Palestinians that had already settlement of the West Bank. In 1997, occurred. These developments have con- there were 300,000 Jewish settlers in the signed dovish politicians and commenta- West Bank and . In 2002, tors in Israel to the role of Cassandra: Year there were 390,000. In 2007, there were after year they warn that, without immedi- 460,000. Today, there are 520,000. So for ate change in Israeli policies, the two-state all this tumult, all this churning, nothing solution will disappear as a strategy for ad- changes except the number of settlers. dressing fundamental challenges to Israel’s Well, not quite nothing. One other future, and with it any chance for a state substantial change may be noted inside Is- that is both democratic and Jewish. rael during this period: the disappearance The anxieties associated with Israeli of the Zionist left as an effective political inability to imagine a positive future for force. True, in the last election, enough the country or change in its political direc- dovish, liberal Meretz voters returned tion have been sharpened in recent years from the centrist groups to whom they by transformational developments in the had given support in previous elections to Middle East as a whole. The contrast is raise Meretz’s representation from three stark. Israelis feel their country is set on Knesset members to six, but still only half an unchangeable course to an undesired its representation in the 1992-96 Knes- destination. At the same time, tens or even set. Considering decisions by Yesh Atid hundreds of millions of Middle Eastern- and the shriveled Labor Party to virtually ers have been aroused by the partial but abandon the issues of peace and the Pales- impressive accomplishments of people tinians during their campaigns, however, power to remove or destabilize dictator- there is no reason to doubt the general ships. They know their world is changing. judgment of observers regarding the col- They may be deeply worried about near- lapse and near political disappearance of term economic and political prospects, but the dovish left in Israel as a political force one thing they do know, or at least believe, capable of leading the country or playing is that their world can be changed and that a decisive role in a coalition government. they can have a hand in changing it. The Regardless of any formal responsibility risks taken and sacrifices made by masses she may have, no serious observer expects of mobilized Libyans, Egyptians, Tuni- Tzipi Livni to be able to make any prog- sians, Syrians, Bahrainis, Iranians, Jordani-

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ans, Moroccans and others show that in the It is precisely against this background Muslim Middle East, there are plenty of of paralysis, confusion about the future, people able to imagine a better future and and dramatic shifts in the strategic land- willing to act vigorously to bring it about. scape that the impoverishment of Zionist Yes, hundreds of thousands of Israelis ideology for coping with twenty-first-cen- were also inspired to take to the streets, but tury problems is thrown into high relief. In the demands of that movement for social many respects, Israel operates as if caught and economic justice within Israel were in a nineteenth-century time warp. Indeed, narrow. Despite the 19 seats received by the political consciousness of Israeli Jews Yesh Atid, that brief period of mass mobi- is still dominated by the confrontation of lization has so far not resulted in signifi- Jews 130 years ago with vicious forms of cant change at either the political or policy anti-Semitism in a rapidly modernizing level in Israel. Europe. Key Zionist principles of self- Of course, it is not only or even mainly reliance, national egoism and opportunis- this contrast between Muslim Middle East- tic expansionism that served the Jewish erners that see the future as a dynamic one, nationalist movement well in its heroic where they have a role to play, and the im- period are dangerously out of place in the age in Israel of the future as a stagnant one twenty-first-century. Yet these principles, in which they are trapped, more or less, to the polemics developed to defend them, live forever the way they are living now. and the lapses, errors, exaggerations and What matters more is that the substance of stereotypes that eventually turn all ideolo- changes in the Arab world are limiting the gies into snares and delusions, hold Israeli ability of Israel to use force — unilater- political culture and the outlook of many ally and at low cost — as a substitute for Israelis in an iron grip. diplomatic or political action capable of Last year, The Jerusalem Post hosted protecting the country’s long-term inter- its first annual conference — not in Je- ests in peace and security. The treaty with rusalem, but in New York. The program Egypt is now at risk, saddling the country featured a full array of center, center-right, with the prospect of the southern front’s and right-wing politicians from Israel: for- budget-busting reappearance. With the mer prime ministers, former chiefs of staff, added specter of a nuclear-capable Iran on famous polemicists, diplomats and journal- the horizon, it’s no wonder an otherwise ists. The conference title was “Israel 2012: extreme right-wing government has been Fighting for the Zionist Dream,” evoking careful to refrain from “mowing the lawn” Herzl’s Nietzschean pronouncement, “If in Lebanon or sending armor and infantry you will it, it is no dream.” However, not into Gaza. It’s one thing to satisfy over- one of the three substantive sessions of this wrought domestic opinion with large-scale conference — Iran, American Jewry, and military action if Israeli casualties are the global delegitimization campaign — counted in the single digits and the fighting had anything to do with foundational Zion- has no major economic impact. It’s quite ist principles, let alone Zionist dreams. My another to do so when the result can be point is that even as most Israeli Jews and heavy bombardment of Israeli cities and virtually all Israeli politicians feel com- the risk of billions more dollars annually in pelled to turn to Zionist slogans and tropes defense costs. for guidance, reassurance, legitimization

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and the names that they give to the confer- Israel and accepting of — even grate- ences they hold, there is virtually nothing ful for — its presence. Instead, what has there of use for finding solutions to con- Israel’s association with the West and the temporary problems. modernization of Middle Eastern countries The foundational principles of Zion- such as Turkey produced? Modernization ism, especially as they relate to the prob- and democracy have come to Turkey, but lem of achieving a permanent and secure the result has been intensified opposition place for Israel in the Middle East, are to, and even hatred of, Israel. The Arab not only wrong, they are absurdly wrong. Spring may or may not bring democracy Herzl’s began with the assump- to the region, but it has removed dictators tion that the homelessness of the Jews was with whom Israel knew how to cooperate. a special and vital problem for the interna- In post-Mubarak Egypt, it is becoming tional community, and that the internation- evident that popular beliefs and passions al community would go to great lengths will have greater influence over foreign — including imposing a Jewish state on policy in Muslim Middle Eastern states. resisting Arab locals — to solve it. Today, This will mean a stronger commitment to the opposite is the case. The international Palestinian demands and less tolerance for community now sees the homelessness back-room security cooperation with Israel of the Palestinians as a special problem or for winking at Israeli uses of force in requiring global intervention and possibly Gaza or Lebanon. imposition of a settlement against the will Another bedrock idea of Zionism was of the Israelis. Rather than riding a wave that in a Jewish state in the Middle East, of sympathy and support for Zionism as Jews would finally be physically secure a solution to the worldwide problem of against threats to their existence. But now, anti-Semitism, and despite huge invest- with Iran coyly and infuriatingly com- ments in rebranding efforts, the policies of bining Holocaust rhetoric with nuclear the Israeli government toward the Palestin- opacity, Israelis feel deep in their core the ian Authority in the West Bank, Hamas in reality that the one place in the world Jews Gaza, and the Arab citizens of Israel, have could really be exposed to a threat to their triggered cascades of international obloquy physical existence is Israel. toward Israel and waves of sympathy and What kind of a recognizable Zionist mobilization on behalf of the Palestin- world is it when the fastest-growing Jew- ians — including a campaign of boycott, ish community in the world is in Berlin, divestment and sanctions that seeks not due in substantial measure to Israeli just an end to the occupation but the dele- emigration? Is it any wonder that Israeli gitimization of Israel as a Jewish state. Jews should be confused and frustrated? Early Zionists imagined the Jewish They turn to Zionist principles, ideas and state as a modern, secular democracy, political stances for guidance and inspi- serving as a rampart of Western civiliza- ration, but these elements of Zionism’s tion against the barbarian East sunk in heroic period are precisely wrong about backward religious ideas. Eventually, it the present. Israel is not the vanguard was expected, the region would modern- of a Europeanized Middle East that will ize, westernize and democratize. In the embrace it gratefully. The world is fixated process, the region would become like on an international problem of homeless-

30 Lustick: Israel Needs a New Map

ness for a persecuted people, but it’s not the old map cannot possibly provide guid- the problem of the Jews; it’s the problem ance, the trip can only end in disillusion- of the Palestinians. Israel is not the only ment and disaster, to say nothing of bitter democracy in the Middle East, and it is disputes within the car over who misinter- certainly not a secular democracy. The rule preted the map and who is responsible for of the effendis and the dictators is coming the wrong turns. to an end. But as the masses in the Middle Zionist ideology, like any ideology, East enter politics, the governments they combines a theory of how the world works are producing are not and cannot be lovers with an imperative to action. That’s what of the Jewish state. Even the “Iron Wall,” an ideology is — it’s a theory plus an the idea that at least medium-term security exhortation. An ideology is a map of the can be provided by establishing Israel’s political world, with a route to be followed presence as a “like it or not” permanent that is already charted. reality, collapses under the weight of hope- Israelis need a new map, a more ac- lessness about the possibility of accommo- curate theory of how the world works, one dation with the Arab world, missile threats that does not identify the country’s prob- carrying weapons of mass destruction, and lems as fundamentally linked to anti-Semi- the Holocaust mania such threats so easily tism, that does not blame the world for the engender. failure of its own policies, that is not wed- The predicament Israelis face can ded to fait accompli heroism of the “tower be summarized with a simple allegory. and stockade” as a way to overcome moral Imagine a family car trip. I live in Phila- uncertainties and international oppro- delphia — let’s imagine a trip in Pennsyl- brium, that does not fashion Palestinians as vania. The family piles into the car, and Nazis or the United Nations as the British heads out onto the road. They’ve got a map mandate, and that recognizes that the one of Pennsylvania. The map shows where fundamental objective of Zionism has been to go and where not to go for swimming, achieved — Israel is a normal country. camping, hiking and so on. Here’s the That means it is as prone to stupidity and Delaware River gap, here are the Pocono to brutality in the name of its old gods as mountains. Relying on that same map, they any other country. More ominously, it is cross the Susquehanna River. It is going as likely as any other small country to pay north to south, just the way it’s supposed the terrible costs of not seeing in itself the to. All is well, all is understandable. But flaws it so naturally sees in others. imagine that the family continues driving Zionist ideology was, in its day, a and they end up in Montana or Texas, but valuable problem identifier and guide all they’ve got is that map of Pennsylvania. to the solutions for those problems for They keep relying on it. But that map is desperate Jews. But except for the founda- not going to help them find their way, it’s tional principle that Jews are normal and going to produce nothing but confusion, deserve the rights of any other people, the false certainty, irritation, anger and frustra- traditional discourse of Zionism as theory tion. The Rio Grande will be mistaken as and guide is an obstacle to Jewish welfare the Ohio, the Poconos will be enormously and security. The challenges Israel faces larger than they’re supposed to be. Without are immense but not necessarily insuper- a new map or at least the realization that able. What can make them insuperable

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are the paralyzing distortions of Zionist volatility, making it difficult to develop or ideology; America’s smothering cocoon of implement new policies as gradual adapta- economic and political largesse; and a fatal tions to stubborn realities. embrace of the Holocaust as a warrant for That doesn’t mean peaceful change is paranoia, a guaranteed argument-ender, impossible. However, I’m afraid it’s highly and a permanent, infinite IOU. Israel can implausible. There’s a huge difference be- live in a post-Zionist age by adapting to tween saying that something is impossible the world as it is, or it can die in one. As and saying that it’s implausible, as opposed we Jews say: “Choose life.” to saying it’s improbable. I used to think during the peace process in 1993-94 that Q AND A actually a two-state solution was probable. Q: Is there any way out of the current Now, anyone who’s advocating the two- situation so long as the peace efforts have state solution is in the position of trying completely collapsed? You cannot ask to to say it’s not just barely possible; it also have a peace negotiation between a tiger could be plausible. But that person is not and a cat, with the tiger protected by a struggling to make it happen, only to make tamed lion (that’s the United States). Is it seem plausible. That’s a useful thing there any way that history will not take its to do. I still think it’s possible. However, ugly course in the region, whereby mil- many other things are more plausible and lions of people could be killed and Israel more probable. could be wiped off the map? Positive change will require heavy lifting by an American president, and of DR. LUSTICK: That is the question we course the problem is that there is almost are all here wondering about. I’m writing a no convincing political logic leading an new book on that, but I’ve not written the American president to do so. On the other conclusion yet. I think the way you put it hand, consider for a moment other situa- at the end is very important. History will tions of constrained volatility: the Soviet solve the problem, in the sense of the way Union before its tremendous transforma- entropy solves problems. You don’t stay tion in 1989 or Iran in 1978-79. How many with this kind of constrained volatility for- years prior to those tremendous trans- ever. When you constrain exchange rates formations would you have been able to in a volatile market by not allowing rates imagine that these events would have hap- to move, even though the actual economy pened? Ten years? No. Five years? Maybe makes them absurd, rates will eventually two, if you were very, very good? So we change, but in a very radical, non-linear may be much closer to tremendous change way. The more the constraint, the less the that will not be pleasant. adaptation to changing conditions, the more jagged and painful that adaptation is Q: I came hoping that you would have a going to be. What I’ve been describing is map for us, for Israel. Given the mood of the exhaustion of Zionist ideology and its Israelis, they have hunkered down, and iron grip on Israel. I could just as easily the Arabs’ love for freedom is rising. Can lecture on the fatal embrace of the Holo- we have a peaceful solution? The Soviet caust and the Israel lobby in the United Union and Iran were internal transforma- States. Those three things constrain this tions. But here it is not confined to Israel.

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Do you see, short of a catastrophe, that difficult to admit responsibility for. You there will be changes, given the mood of would have to agree, instead of accept- both Israelis and Arabs? ing Ben-Gurion’s view that Israeli Jews need nuclear weapons to survive another DR. LUSTICK: Let me give you some- Holocaust, that nuclear weapons, whether thing of a map that might not be cata- in Israel’s hands or anyone else’s hands, strophic. What could Israel move toward are a threat to the peoples of the Middle now? Let’s imagine that we strip away this East. You would have to agree that Israel Zionist ideology, these preconceptions, could use its nuclear capacity to arrive at a these categories that are a hundred years non-nuclear, non-WMD (weapons of mass out of date, and look at the reality. You see destruction) Middle East and avoid this opportunities, such as a two-state solution, threat. with a map that involves land swaps and I could go on about discovering new a real Palestinian state with Al Quds as its paths forward, once you stop thinking of capital. You see economic opportunities Israel in traditional, strictly Zionist terms. flowing from Europe, the United States But paths forward to where? We’ve and Saudi Arabia. talked about the two-state solution, but that But this would require a sharable can come in many different forms. You can narrative. When Ben-Gurion and Sharett hold open the idea of a negotiated agree- agreed to German reparations in the early ment, which many of us may fantasize 1950s, they forced Germany in secret about, or you could imagine something negotiations to acknowledge what actu- that is now much more likely, a glorified ally happened in the Holocaust before hudna (truce), where there is no end to the they would agree to take the German conflict officially, but there is an end to money. The amazing thing is that, although the use of military force. Khrushchev said, Adenauer did give a speech including the “We will bury you” to the United States. paragraph they agreed on, the speech said But instead of saying we’ve got to destroy almost nothing else that was true. He said Khrushchev and the Soviet Union, we said, the German people abhorred the Nazis okay, we’re going to have peaceful, com- and that most of them fought to rescue petitive coexistence. their Jewish brethren. But Ben-Gurion and Sharett still were able to use that little bit Q: You say Israelis don’t really see a of truth about the Holocaust in the speech positive future because they are stuck in a to take the money and build the Jewish nineteenth-century time warp. But Israeli state. It’s not true that the Palestinians need policies are based on national security an admission of the whole truth by Israel, and the need to survive violent attacks, but there has to be a sharable narrative. and thus Israelis are unable to think about Once you have that, other possibilities that a more positive future. Are there leaders have seemed impossible can open up. in the Israeli government who agree with There has to be generous refugee your analysis? compensation, which would be obvious to anyone who wasn’t terrified about an DR. LUSTICK: The security rationale end to the country because you thought is used by Israeli leaders to justify every the principle of Palestinian return was too policy. In fact, most problematic Israeli

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policies have nothing to do with national The other obstacle, apart from the lack security — for example, settlements, the of a strong domestic mandate, to press- main problem that makes this conflict ing for new Israeli policies, is that there is nearly insoluble. For the past 45 years, virtually no opposition or shadow govern- most Israeli generals have opposed settle- ment in Israel today that would support ments as a burden. such American pressure for change on, for Even Israel’s policy toward Iran has example, Israel’s settlement policy. In con- more to do with distracting attention trast, when President George H.W. Bush away from the Palestinian issue than with threatened to cut back on loan guarantees security. Israel’s former security chiefs for settlements in the early 1990s, there acknowledged in their interviews in the was support for this in the Israeli opposi- movie The Gatekeepers that Israeli poli- tion, which won the next election, leading cies toward the Palestinians have made no to the Rabin government. strategic contribution to security. As for prominent Israeli leaders who Q: Also, one of the things that sort of put agree with me, I cannot point to any per- the two-state solution on the agenda was son. But in Israeli universities and think Palestinian support for it. I don’t see any tanks there is widespread acceptance that Palestinian strategy today. What can the Israeli policies must change. Unfortunately, Palestinian collective do to change things it takes a while for those ideas to percolate and to be something more than just the into the culture and produce cadres who victim? can be political leaders. Whether that pro- cess will occur fast enough, I don’t know. Q: We’re still negotiating between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Do you Q: President Obama will be going soon see negotiations succeeding? Are they even to Israel, Jordan and the West Bank. What worthwhile? How can we influence either policies should he promote? side?

DR. LUSTICK: It’s very, very difficult DR. LUSTICK: I’m skeptical about for an American president to create a simply returning to negotiations without policy toward Israel based on national se- new policies. There’s a tendency in this curity or national interest. Our leaders are town to believe that talks are better than heavily influenced by domestic constituen- no talks, but that’s not always the case. I cies that care tremendously about Israel can’t imagine Netanyahu being involved while other Americans have wider interests right now in real negotiations, and it would and care far less about Israel. Indeed, our be a delusion to pursue them. If I were the policy toward Israel deviates wildly from United States, I would play hard to get. the international mean for much the same You want me to get involved? You’re go- reason that our policy toward Cuba does ing to have to meet my conditions. That’s — a powerful, strategically placed, single- a better stance. The problem with it is that, issue lobby. Often, in the United Nations, in the Israeli context, we are constantly the United States, Israel and Micronesia doing things that fan the flames of the vote one way, and the rest of the world conflict, for example, by giving $3 billion votes the other. a year in unconditional aid to Israel and

34 Lustick: Israel Needs a New Map

voting against everything critical of Israel are headed. Hamas’s position is non-rec- in the United Nations, irrespective of the ognition of Israel and its right to exist as a merits. It’s important to stop doing that Jewish state. Hamas and the Palestinians before pushing new negotiations. If we did in the West Bank are never going to say, so, that would shape the political space and “We have a duty to allow you to be here.” make negotiations worth pursuing. They may, as the “Iron Wall” strategy I’m not predicting that my views will demanded, acquiesce in a reality they be embraced by the mainstream of Israeli can’t change, but that’s different. I think political opinion — even left-wing politi- they (both the PLO and Hamas) will say, cal opinion — in the near future. But I’m we don’t agree to an end to the conflict, also not sure it is too late. The bad news but we also are ready to enter a long-term is that I argued in 1971 that 1,500 settlers competitive struggle on all levels, and we in the West Bank were a catastrophe that can have a peaceful modus vivendi. would lead Israel into a political dungeon from which it might never escape. I was Q: It seems to me that the Zionists are laughed at. I also argued for a Palestinian the ones who have changed because of state alongside Israel in the early 1970s, the situation, and you’re the one who’s but it took 25 years before the mainstream the dinosaur and stuck in the old habits, in Israeli politics agreed with that. It may believing the old Zionist dream that if they take another 25 years before they realize behaved properly and accommodated the that what I’m saying is true now and will Arabs that they would have peace. be even truer if Israel is still around in 20 or 25 more years. DR. LUSTICK: You said that the old There are ideas percolating among Zionist dream was that if we Jews, Zion- young Israelis who are bravely pursuing ists, behave properly, then we would have a brighter vision for Israel and Palestine, peace with Arabs. Which old Zionist can despite the enormous pressures on them. you cite that had that dream? Because I The sparks of change are there, though don’t know of any. What was actually the they may not succeed. old Zionist position was not the dream that Yes, actually, Palestinians have a strat- if we behave properly the Arabs will make egy. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has peace with us. No, they were much smarter become dependent on funds from abroad. than that. In the 1920s, Ben-Gurion said, For all the good will I feel toward Abbas there’s a simple problem between the himself, the PA is separated from the popu- Arabs and us: they want the country to be lation and has no real political support. theirs, we want it to be ours. Jabotinsky The PA is caught between its need to work said in his famous “Iron Wall” article, with Israel and the strategies, increasingly which was accepted by almost the entire popular among Palestinians, of boycott, Zionist movement, that there is no basis divestment and sanctions, delegitimization, for the Arabs, who are the indigenous and fighting in arenas where Israel does population, to make peace with us alien not have an automatic edge. Thus, whether settlers. No. We can’t negotiate with them the PA does challenge Israel in the Interna- now because we have no minimal basis for tional Criminal Court and elsewhere will agreement with them. We have to eliminate be an interesting indication of where things any hope that they can get rid of us. Then

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we could, at least in principle, negotiate Haredim can’t be the most dovish force with them. in Israel. They were for a long time. The But Netanyahu has abandoned this head of what is now Shas, Ovadia Yosef, policy. The old policy was that the Jews was at one point the person who wanted to should not use more violence than neces- withdraw from all the territories. When I sary, because they should always look look at the settlements, the ones I’m least for the opportunity eventually to make a worried about are Beitar Illit and other compromise. As I wrote in my article on ultra-orthodox communities, because once the abandonment of the “Iron Wall,” the the rabbi tells them to go, they’re out of new Israeli leadership doesn’t believe in there. But there is no group in Israel, even the Iron Wall anymore and has abandoned the Russians, that has as much visceral even the possibility of eventual peaceful fear and hatred against Gentiles, but spe- compromise. Let me ask you a question. cifically Arabs, as the Haredim. That has Do you have an image of an Israel in the penetrated into their culture and will be a future that you like and you think is pos- big job for the rabbis to overcome. But the sible? What would be the fate of the Arabs? rabbis have resources, if they needed to Do you think it’s possible to get the Arabs use them. So I wouldn’t say it’s the demo- to accept an Israel that you would like? graphics; it is that ideological/cultural shift that is the big challenge. Q: In my lifetime no, they won’t accept it. So the point is, you have to be humane Q: We’re about to celebrate the fiftieth an- and give them what you can give them, niversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have but not enough so you’re going to destroy a Dream” speech. I think that ushered yourself. in the end of segregation, or at least the approach to the end of segregation in the Q: Has the demographic explosion in United States. So why would the United Israel of the religious and the Haredi sec- States want to acquiesce in segregation in tors, which are not open to modernization, Israel? As a follow-up, can Jews still main- blocked Zionism from adapting to reality? tain a homeland if they allow equal rights How does that change affect the ability of to the Palestinians? Israel to actually face the future? DR. LUSTICK: How can the United DR. LUSTICK: The Haredim, the ultra- States support segregation in Israel when orthodox, have a lot of children, but let’s we have tried to end it here? The United not exaggerate. We see all the statistics States overthrew Allende, a democratically about the Haredi birth rate, but you don’t elected government. All over the world see so many statistics about the number of we have supported for decades govern- Israelis who leave the Haredi world. So al- ments that absolutely contradicted not only though they’re growing, it’s not as if their our values, but the values that we aspired demographic bulk is the most important to. So that is not a puzzle. You could try thing shaping Israel’s future. to make an argument out of it, which is I’ll tell you what the most important important because the argument on the thing is in this sector: ideological change. Israel lobby side often is that Israel is the There’s no intrinsic reason why the only democracy in the region; they share

36 Lustick: Israel Needs a New Map

our values. It’s pretty easy to see, however, have any particular criticism of Israel in that the current governments in Israel don’t that regard. share a lot of traditional American values, I think, like the rest of the world, and you’ve pointed out one of them. Israelis are horrified by what’s going on in To be fair, not every state, including Syria. I don’t think they have the feeling in Israel or a Palestinian state, has to be like general, “Better the evil we knew than the the United States, where you have com- one we don’t know.” I don’t think Israelis plete integration — as if we do. Every are particularly optimistic about the groups country expresses its own culture. that are rebelling in Syria. As I have said, But on the other hand, there certainly in any case, it is going to be more difficult will be no Israel as an expression of Jew- for Israeli governments to relate to new ish culture if there is not also a Palestine Arab governments, whereas in the past, that is an expression of Arab-Palestinian they could make backroom deals with dic- culture. It just won’t be. It may be that one tators. Democracy has its costs, and that’s way to do that is in a larger political entity one of them for Israel. that’s not two states but a larger, different kind of state. We don’t know yet. But I Q: Is perhaps the key to your theory the agree with the basic thrust of your com- fact that Zionism may have been based ment. upon nineteenth-century Western colonial- ism, and continues in that direction, which Q: What is Israeli policy toward the Syrian sets it on the wrong course? conflict? Also, is Israel a democracy? How can it be if Palestinians refugees don’t DR. LUSTICK: It’s a complicated ques- have a right to return? tion. Zionism borrowed from many Euro- pean ideologies, including colonialism and DR. LUSTICK: On Syria, that’s one issue nationalism in the late nineteenth and early where I don’t have a lot of criticism of twentieth-centuries. After World War II, Israeli policy, frankly. I’m not sure they colonialism was discredited and national have any good options. I don’t know what liberation took its place. I can show you they’re doing behind the scenes. They’ve a great Zionist pamphlet from the 1960s been relatively moderate in their responses saying Zionism was the first of all na- to a couple of shells that have come over. tional liberation movements. I can show They’ve been focused on issues that you pamphlets from 50 years earlier when clearly are national-security issues to them Zionism was the prototype for what a true — for example, the transfer of new kinds colonialist movement should be. of technology to Hezbollah and Syrian In other words, don’t take too seriously chemical weapons. There’s no way not to ideological labels like racialism, national- be worried about those. I suspect, and I’m ism, communism, fascism, self-determina- fairly confident, that they’re cooperating tion — they all have left their sediments in with the United States and the Jordanians contemporary Zionism. — maybe even with the Turks. So I don’t

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