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Consumer and Retail Industry Update February 2012

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Consumer and Retail Industry Update February 2012 Consumer and Retail Industry Update February 2012 Member FINRA/SIPC www.harriswilliams.com Consumer and Retail Industry Update February 2012 What We’ve Been Reading • comScore reports that U.S. online retail spending reached $49.7 billion during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 14% versus the fourth quarter of 2010. “This growth rate represented the ninth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year growth... For the entire 2011 year, U.S. retail e-commerce spending reached a record $161.5 billion, marking a 13-percent increase from 2010.” Read the press release here. • “The Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack (NYSE: PBY), the nation’s leading automotive aftermarket service and retail chain, announced… that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement under which it will be acquired by The Gores Group, one of the nation’s leading investment firms, led by founder and CEO, Alec Gores. Total enterprise value of the transaction is approximately $1.0 billion.” Read the full announcement here. • The New York Times reports that retail spending in the U.S. rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in January. “The positive data suggested that hiring gains have raised confidence and were encouraging more people to spend. Retail sales have risen about 21 percent since hitting a recession low. And they're nearly 6 percent above their pre-recession high.” Read the article here. Contacts Richmond Boston Cleveland London Minneapolis Philadelphia San Francisco Phone: +1 (804) 648-0072 Phone: +1 (617) 482-7501 Phone: +1 (216) 689-2400 Phone: +44 203 170 8838 Phone: +1 (612) 359-2700 Phone: +1 (267) 675-5900 Phone: +1 (415) 288-4260 Fax: +1 (804) 648-0073 Fax: +1 (617) 482-7503 Fax: +1 (216) 689-2401 Fax: +44 207 681 1907 Fax: +1 (612) 359-2701 Fax: +1 (267) 675-5901 Fax: +1 (415) 288-4269 For more information regarding our consumer experience, please contact Glenn Gurtcheff ([email protected]), Tim Alexander ([email protected]), Jeff Cleveland ([email protected]), Ryan Budlong ([email protected]), or Brant Cash ([email protected]) at +1 (612) 359-2700. 1 of 16 Equity Trading Overview February 2012 Median Median TEV/ Median TEV/ Key Trading Number of Sector Enterprise Change in Stock Price LTM Multiples Forward Mulitples Statistics Companies Value ($mm) 3 mos. 12 mos. Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA (detail begins Consumer Products on page 6) Apparel & Footwear 35 $1,426 14.9% 3.1% 1.13x 9.8x 1.12x 8.5x Automotive Products 13 2,252 18.8% 30.1% 0.55x 10.9x 0.51x 9.8x Home & Office Furniture & Furnishings 14 730 15.9% (20.1%) 0.60x 8.4x 0.67x 7.0x Household Products 11 4,433 13.6% (3.7%) 1.29x 8.4x 1.28x 8.2x Personal Care Products 17 1,933 10.8% 10.9% 1.42x 8.7x 1.51x 8.9x Recreational & Leisure Products 21 377 26.5% 20.4% 0.91x 10.1x 0.99x 7.5x Retail Apparel & Footwear Retail 45 1,031 17.1% 1.1% 0.76x 6.8x 0.69x 6.1x Catalog & Specialty Distribution 8 447 7.7% 0.2% 0.17x 6.3x 0.16x 5.7x Department Chains 9 9,756 18.8% (3.0%) 0.63x 6.2x 0.65x 6.7x Discount Stores & Mass Merchants 13 3,120 6.4% 4.4% 0.62x 7.8x 0.65x 7.5x Furniture & Furnishings Retailers 14 1,121 18.9% 12.1% 0.96x 8.5x 0.93x 7.6x Internet Retail 13 646 10.7% (19.7%) 1.43x 12.5x 1.17x 8.9x Specialty & Other Retail 30 1,193 11.9% 2.1% 0.64x 8.4x 0.55x 7.7x Consumer Products 111 $1,679 15.4% 7.0% 1.02x 9.2x 1.06x 8.4x Retail 132 $1,121 11.9% 1.1% 0.64x 7.8x 0.65x 7.5x Consumer & Retail Index 243 $1,193 14.9% 2.1% 0.76x 8.4x 0.69x 7.6x Public Company Automotive Products Sector Recreational & Leisure Products Performance Furniture & Furnishings Retailers (12-month % Personal Care Products change in Discount Stores & Mass Merchants stock price) S&P 500 Apparel & Footwear Consumer & Retail Index Specialty & Other Retail Apparel & Footwear Retail Catalog & Specialty Distribution Department Chains Household Products Internet Retail Home & Office Furniture & Furnishings (30.0%) (25.0%) (20.0%) (15.0%) (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 2 of 16 Equity Markets Overview February 2012 140 Consumer and Retail 31.6% Industry Stock 120 Performance 19.1% 0.9% 100 Index 80 60 40 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index Dow Jones Retail Index S&P 500 Index Recent Equity Transaction Gross Proceeds Offerings Close Date Filing Date Issuer Ticker Type ($mm) Use of Funds 02/15/12 12/15/10 Black Diamond Inc BDE Follow-On $58.1 General Corp. Purp. and Reduce Indebtedness 02/07/12 02/06/12 Sally Beauty Holdings Inc SBH Follow-On 422.0 General Corp. Purp. 01/26/12 01/18/12 Francesca's Holdings Corp FRAN Follow-On 239.2 General Corp. Purp. 12/08/11 12/06/11 Express Inc EXPR Follow-On 368.0 General Corp. Purp. 12/06/11 11/23/11 Bankrate Inc RATE Follow-On 251.6 General Corp. Purp. 12/06/11 03/01/10 Dollar General Corp DG Follow-On 1,121.3 General Corp. Purp. 11/17/11 06/10/11 Mattress Firm Holding Corp MFRM IPO 105.6 General Corp. Purp. 10/19/11 05/24/11 Coldwater Creek Inc CWTR Follow-On 22.5 General Corp. Purp. 10/12/11 11/18/10 Sally Beauty Holdings Inc SBH Follow-On 346.7 General Corp. Purp. 09/15/11 09/02/11 RPX Corp RPXC Follow-On 70.7 General Corp. Purp. 09/13/11 10/05/09 ExlService Holdings Inc EXLS Follow-On 92.0 General Corp. Purp. and Reduce Indebtedness 09/08/11 09/07/11 Dollar General Corp DG Follow-On 999.1 General Corp. Purp. 08/19/11 08/05/11 Swisher Hygiene Inc SWI Follow-On 45.3 General Corp. Purp. 07/21/11 06/24/10 Francesca's Holdings Corp FRAN IPO 195.5 General Corp. Purp. and Reduce Indebtedness 3 of 16 M&A Overview February 2012 1 Announced 120 Quarterly Consumer M&A Activity Last 10 Deals Announced Consumer Announced Target Buyer and Retail 100 2/17/2012 Nixon, Inc. Trilantic Capital 26 2/15/2012 Skyway Luggage Company Ricardo Beverly Hills M&A 2/13/2012 US Marine Lights Warrior Girl Corp. __ 80 14 2/10/2012 Sycamore Ventures, Inc. Aero Financial 9 5 2/8/2012 Red Rock Products, Inc. Shockoe Commerce Group 6 9 2/6/2012 FilzFelt, Inc. Knoll Inc. 10 15 13 13 60 13 2/6/2012 Richard Schultz Design, Inc. Knoll Inc. 19 11 9 2/3/2012 Swank Inc. Randa Corp. 2/1/2012 United Retail Group, Inc. Versa Capital Management 1/31/2012 Quartermaster, Inc. Galls 40 81 4 Number Number ofTransactions 74 72 72 65 5 61 64 55 56 56 54 50 LTM Deal Statistics 48 46 20 37 31 Aggregate Number Transaction Multiples Value ($bn) of Deals EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA 0 $32.9 273 0.88x 9.4x 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Note: Transactions based on publicly available information PEG Acquirer Strategic Acquirer Consumer and Announced Consumer Transactions Median Consumer Transaction Multiples Retail M&A $100 500 16.0x 1.75x 450 Trends $84.9 $79.7 14.0x 1.50x $80 400 __ Number ofTransactions Number 12.0x 11.2x Multiple Sales LTM / EV 11.0x 10.7x 350 10.3x 1.25x 10.0x $60 300 8.9x 8.4x 1.00x 250 8.0x 6.6x $40.3 0.75x $40 200 6.0x $28.6 $29.6 150 0.50x $22.1 __ 4.0x __ $20 100 Multiple EBITDA LTM / EV 2.0x 0.25x $2.8 50 Aggregate Transaction Value ($ in billions) in ($ Value AggregateTransaction $0 0 0.0x 0.00x 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Aggregate Deal Value # of deals EV / LTM EBITDA EV / LTM Sales Median LTM Median LTM Trading Multiples Consumer PEG Investments and Exits 12.0x 120 Trading 110 Multiples and 10.2x 10.2x 10.3x 9.9x 9.8x 9.7x 9.7x 9.6x 9.6x 97 10.0x 9.4x 9.4x 100 Announced 8.9x 8.7x 8.8x 8.6x 8.6x 8.4x 8.2x 8.3x 8.2x ' 81 Private Equity 7.7x 7.8x 8.0x 7.7x 80 M&A Activity 73 71 73 6.4x 59 59 59 6.0x 60 53 54 54 53 49 4.0x 37 40 33 30 Median Trading Multiples Trading Median Number of Investments 27 2.0x 20 5 3 0.0x 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Number of Investments Number of Exits Consumer Products Retail (1) 1Q12 data is QTD. 4 of 16 Debt Market Overview February 2012 Key Retail Quarterly Retail Loan Volume Average Spread on Retail Loans Credit Statistics $12 L + 500 ___ $10 __ L + 400 $8 L + 300 $6 L + 200 $4 AverageSpread Over LIBOR L + 100 $2 Loan VolumeLoan byQuarter ($ billions)in $0 L + 0 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10 2Q11 4Q11 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Pro Rata Institutional Revolving Credit / Term Loan A Weighted-Average Institutional Credit Statistics Average Secondary Spread 8.0x L + 1200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 L + 1000 6.0x L + 800 4.0x L + 600 L + 400 EBITDA Multiple EBITDA 2.0x AverageSpread Over LIBOR L + 200 0.0x L + 0 Debt/EBITDA Senior EBITDA/Cash EBITDA - Debt/EBITDA Interest Capex/Cash Interest Recent Date Effective Borrower Name Description Deal Amount Type Rating Spread 02/22/12 Tropicana Entertainment Hotels and motels $175,000,000 Term Loan B NR / WR 600 Consumer and 02/22/12 AMC Entertainment Inc Motion picture theaters, ex drive-in 300,000,000 Term Loan B- / B2 350 Retail Debt 02/22/12 Jarden Corp (fka Alltrista Corp) Electric housewares and fans 175,000,000 Term Loan A BB- / Ba3 225 02/22/12 Jarden Corp (fka Alltrista Corp) Electric housewares and fans 175,000,000 Term Loan B BB- / Ba3 300 Offerings 02/22/12 ThermaSys Corp Motor vehicle parts and accessories 112,000,000 Other Loan NR / NR 450 02/22/12 Mohegan Tribal Gaming Amusement and recreation 225,000,000 Term Loan CC / Caa2 750 02/22/12 Phillips & Temro Industries Motor vehicle parts and accessories 15,000,000 Revolver/Line >= 1 Yr.
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