THE EARTHQUAKE, EUROPE, and PROSPECTS for POLITICAL CHANGE in TURKEY by Paul Kubicek*
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THE EARTHQUAKE, EUROPE, AND PROSPECTS FOR POLITICAL CHANGE IN TURKEY By Paul Kubicek* Two events in 1999—the Marmara earthquake and the European Union's (EU) conditional acceptance of Turkey’s candidacy for membership--offered hope for liberalization and democratization in Turkey. In the first case, the earthquake was viewed as a factor mobilizing civil society as a force "from below" that could engender political reform. In the second, the EU became a factor providing outside pressure for change. This article suggests that the energy generated from the earthquake's aftermath has largely dissipated and that there is strong opposition from powerful forces in Turkey to meeting key EU recommendations. While there has been a change in rhetoric, making a change in policy is proving very difficult. The wave of democratization that system is labeled, it seems well swept over much of the world in the 1990s entrenched, and despite talk of reform appeared to have bypassed Turkey. Instead throughout the decade, politics-as-usual of experiencing a democratic remained the order of the day. breakthrough, the Turkish political system Two events in the second half of remained plagued by several problems 1999 brought about renewed hope for compromising its democracy, issues political liberalization. The first was the further illustrated by the March 2001 Marmara earthquake in August that, in financial crisis and its aftermath. These addition to causing human and material included a Kurdish insurgency; human losses, exposed fissures in the edifice of rights violations; prohibitions on some the Turkish state. The hope among many political parties; corruption; thinly veiled was that these cracks would be filled by a interventions by the military into the resurgent civil society that could push for political arena; and low public confidence change “from below.” The second event in key democratic institutions. The 1999 was the decision by the European Union parliamentary elections produced a (EU) at its December summit in Helsinki coalition government that seemed likely to to accept Turkey’s candidacy for be torn between formerly implacable membership. The expectation was that the enemies on the nationalist right and the EU would help push for change, prompting social-democratic left.(1) Turkey to undertake measures to eliminate Turkey is certainly an electoral its democratic deficit in exchange for democracy but lacks many features of a admission to full membership. Arguably, liberal democracy.(2) One Turkish political one can already see results of the EU’s scientist dubbed Turkey a “delegative lobbying. A new president, one with solid democracy,” marked by personalist rule, reform credentials, has been elected, and lack of accountability, and a penchant for his push for a more liberal and open authoritarian behavior.(3) However the government has brought him into open 34 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Summer 2001) Paul Kubicek conflict with the current government, discussion need not detain us long, but one triggering the financial meltdown earlier should be aware of some of the major this year. problems facing the Turkish polity in the A year later, one can better assess 1990s and how they impinge upon how these two events and the ostensible democratization. agents of change--civil society and the EU- Human rights are commonly cited -are re-shaping Turkish politics. In other as the largest blemish on Turkey’s contexts, both actors have been deemed democratic record. Many, but certainly not instrumental in the processes of all, of these problems are connected with democratization.(4) Past results elsewhere, the Kurdish insurgency/terrorist actions.(8) however, do not guarantee success in Fighting with the separatist Kurdistan Turkey today. While the debate in Turkey Workers’ Party (PKK) broke out in 1984 has undoubtedly been transformed by these and has claimed over 30,000 lives. Both events, one wonders if this will lead to sides have been accused of massive human broad changes in the polity itself. This rights violations.(9) Away from the front article will therefore examine the ability of lines, individuals, both Turks and ethnic Turkish civil society and the EU to compel Kurds, calling for peaceful dialogue or a Turkish elites to open up the political serious discussion of Kurdish concerns system and further processes of democratic have been imprisoned under Article 312 of consolidation. the penal code, which criminalizes speech deemed to provoke ethnic or religious SHORTCOMINGS OF DEMOCRACY enmity. Turkey ranks among the leaders in IN TURKEY the world for imprisoned journalists, and several leading human rights activists have If a democracy is viewed also been imprisoned. The capture and exclusively in terms of Joseph Schumpter's imprisonment of the PKK’s leader, terms, as a system in which “individuals Abdullah Ocalan in early 1999 helped acquire the power to decide by means of a produce a Turkish military victory but the competitive struggle for the people’s question of language or cultural rights has vote,”(5) then Turkey qualifies as a been raised again by the EU membership democracy. However, this is a minimalist criteria. definition, and many would contend that A related problem in Turkey is the democracies depend upon other factors in powerful role of the military in order to function and be consolidated. politics.(10) The military has directly These include basic civic freedoms, the intervened to overthrow three governments rule of law, respect for human rights, in 1960, 1971, and 1980, and in 1997 measures of accountability, civil society, a played a central role in forcing the Islamist restrained military, and popular support for prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, to democratic values and institutions.(6) resign. Seeing Islamists and Kurds as Turkey has long-standing difficulties in threats to the state's survival, the military several of these areas. Numerous authors uses its institutionalized role in the have tackled these subjects, and they have National Security Council to set policy in identified causes ranging from the Ottoman these areas. It also exercises a role in the state tradition to Ataturk’s legacies to State Security Courts, a constitutional body Turkish political culture and deep that deals with all political crimes. In 1998, cleavages in society.(7) A detailed the European Court of Human Rights Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Summer 2001) 35 The Earthquake, Europe, and Prospects for Political Change in Turkey declared that these courts--because they unity of Turkish society, which was allow civilians to be judged by the “without classes, without military--violate human rights.(11) differences.”(13) The state was therefore Defenders of the military's role say hostile to independent groups with their that it intervenes only to save democracy own agenda, as this would rip the from incapable politicians and enjoys interwoven fabric of Turkish society. State popular support in doing so. Indeed, over corporatism, in which the state created 71 percent of the public in a 1997 survey and guided various groups, was the norm. expressed high trust in it.(12) Nonetheless, This past continues to be reflected civilian politicians lack control over the in the current constitutional order. Article military while the military can veto some 13 of the constitution, written in 1982 government policies or decisions. Today under military rule, includes a host of the military remains the most reticent actor restrictions. The state has the right to on topics of political liberalization, and interpret vague notions such as “public overcoming military opposition is a interest” and “public morals,”(14) in formidable challenge to all elected leaders. effect giving it the power to stop actions it There are also limits on political does not like--ranging from workers’ competition in Turkey. By law, political protests to demonstrations by mothers of parties cannot be based on class, region, the “disappeared.” The law governing ethnicity, or religion. This provision has non-government associations is criticized been sporadically enforced, but in the in a report by the Turkish Industrialists' 1990s, two groups--Kurds and Islamists-- and Businessmen’s Association were brought into court on this issue. In (TUSIAD) as “one of the most 1993 and 1994, the pro-Kurdish People’s antidemocratic of laws in Turkish Labor and Democratic parties were legislation.”(15) Professor Ersin banned, and in 1998 the Islamist Refah Kalaycioglu notes that the laws reflect (Welfare) party, the leading vote-getter in “serious misgivings” about civil society the 1995 elections, was similarly organizations and dissuades people from prohibited. Both groups simply changed joining them.(16) Restrictions on civic their name and reorganized the parties, the groups are only sporadically enforced but, Kurds as the Peoples’ Democratic Party according to one report, in 1999 there (HADEP) and the Islamists as Fazilet were 30 closings of non-governmental (Virtue), but they remain under the threat organizations (NGOs) and 387 cases of of closure and several leaders are serving harassment, mostly to Islamic, human prison terms. rights, or suspected Kurdish groups.(17) More generally speaking, one can Turkish democracy also suffers argue that democracy in Turkey is from corruption and stagnation. Interior handicapped by a strong state tradition Minister Saadettin Tantan ranks which fosters paternalism (the “father corruption as the primary threat to state,” stability today.(18) It is also well- devlet baba) and constrains civil society entrenched. Investigations into the 1996 and independent voices. Traditionally, Susurluk scandal--in which a member of civic groups have been seen as accessories parliament, a law enforcement official, of the state, not as genuine partners able to and an internationally wanted criminal initiate action on their own. Ataturk’s were found together in a wrecked notion of “populism” stressed the organic automobile along with thousands of 36 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.