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Equity Research - 25 February 2020 15:34 CET

Eurocon Consulting Reason: Post-results comment Company sponsored research A lacklustre end to 2019 Not rated

 Utilisation set to increase in 2020 Estimate changes (%)  Margin recovery rather than growth, short-term 2020e 2021e 2022e  Share trades at EV/EBIT 15.2x for 2020e Sales -7.9% -7.6% 0.0% EBIT (rep) -24.9% -20.6% 0.0% Q4: Net sales -10% vs. ABGSCe and an unusual EBIT loss EPS (rep) -25.9% -21.5% 0.0% Eurocon reported net sales of SEK 65.3m (66.6), corresponding to a y-o- Source: ABG Sundal Collier y decrease of 2%. The deviation from our numbers stems from a lower Share price (SEK) 24/02/2020 4 .9 than expected utilisation rate and six fewer consultants. EBIT amounted to SEK -2.4m (5.2m), and was hurt by the low utilisation rate in Commercial Services & Supplies, conjunction write-downs for three fixed price infrastructure projects. For EUROC.TE/EURO SS FY 2019, net sales were SEK 261m (253m), of which SEK 30m were acquisition-related. Based on that, organic growth was -9% for the year; MCap (SEKm) 207 this shows the tough market Eurocon faced in 2019, and particularly in MCap (EURm) 19.6 H2. On a positive note, order intake increased at the end of the year and Net debt (EURm) 2 management sees q-o-q utilisation rate improvements over the next couple of quarters. No. of shares (m) 42.7 Free float (%) 90.0 Negative revisions, likely focus on margin recovery Av. daily volume (k) 0.8 We have decreased our sales assumptions by 7.9%-7.6% for 2020e- 2021e following the report. Even though we expect utilisation rates to Next event Q1 report: 07 May increase throughout 2020, Eurocon faces tough comparable in H1. In addition, the coronavirus might have a negative effect on Eurocon’s Performance customers, resulting in delayed investment decisions. The disappointing 140 EBIT margin in Q4 and our negative sales revision also lead to lower 130 assumed EBIT margins going forward. We decrease our EBIT margin 120 assumptions by 1.3pp-1.2pp for ’20e-’21e, resulting in EBIT cuts of 25%- 110 20% for the same period. Overall, we think 2020 will be a year of margin recovery rather than growth. 100 90

EV/EBIT valuation above three-year average 80

Apr 17 Apr

Oct 17 Oct

Apr 18 Apr

Oct 18 Oct

Apr 19 Apr

Oct 19 Oct

Jun 17 Jun Jun 18 Jun

On our revised estimates, Eurocon trades at an EV/EBIT of 15.2x for 19 Jun

Feb 17 Feb

Feb 18 Feb

Feb 19 Feb

Aug 17 Aug

Dec 17 Dec

Aug 18 Aug

Dec 18 Dec

Aug 19 Aug Dec 19 Dec 2020, above its three-year average of 9.6x. Dividend capacity still looks Eurocon Consulting OMX STH PI solid, and we have assumed div. yields of 4.1%-6.2% for the coming 1m 3m 12m three years. Eurocon proposed a dividend for 2019 of SEK 0.1 (0.35), Absolute (%) -10.2 -4.9 -28.3 which corresponds to a div. yield of ~2% on the current share price. OMX STH PI (%) -0.8 6.6 17.2 Source: FactSet Lead analyst: Stefan Knutsson Victor Forssell

2020e 2021e 2022e SEKm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e P/E (x) 17.8 13.3 11.8 Sales 253 261 263 278 292 P/E adj (x) 17.8 13.3 11.8 EBITDA 28 18 28 34 36 EBITDA margin (%) 11.3 6.8 10.8 12.2 12.5 P/BVPS (x) 2.29 2.13 1.99 EBIT adj 25 5 15 21 23 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.3 6.7 6.1 EBIT adj margin (%) 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0 EV/EBIT adj (x) 15.2 11.0 9.5 Pretax profit 31 6 15 21 23 EV/sales (x) 0.90 0.82 0.76 EPS rep 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41 ROE adj (%) 13.4 16.6 17.4 EPS adj 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41 Dividend yield (%) 4.1 5.2 6.2 FCF yield (%) 7.0 12.8 12.8 Sales growth (%) 5.8 3.3 0.6 6.0 5.0 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 1.8 7.5 7.5 EPS growth (%) 18.8 -80.3 131.1 34.4 12.5 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.7 0.4 0.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Eurocon Consulting

Opportunities Risks Eurocon has a solid financial position with stable cash The markets that Eurocon is exposed to are cyclical flows. This positions Eurocon for further acquisitions, which markets such as mining and forestry, and hence, Eurocon in turn will generate most of the firm’s future growth. is dependent on investments in these markets. As other Together with its consultancy offering, Eurocon also consulting businesses are experiencing as well, hiring provides customers with its developed software Sitebase. consultants is hard, and especially within engineering. As The software scales well with increased volumes and can the company grows, keeping competent and experienced hence strengthen the company’s operating margins. employees is essential.

Geographical breakdown, sales, SEKm Number of full-time employees

295 262 290 261 285 260 280 259 275 258 270 257 265 256 260 255 255 250 254 245 253 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19

Sales Sales

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2021e, SEK

0.58 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.56 0.52 0.54 0.50 0.48 0.52 0.46 0.44 0.50 0.42 0.40 0.48 0.38 0.36 0.46

ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm Company description Eurocon Consulting, a consulting service company 80 12.0 founded in 1990, provides the forestry, energy, mining, and 70 10.0 chemistry markets with engineering services. The offering 60 8.0 covers the whole life cycle of customer investment, from 50 6.0 preliminary study to implementation, deployment and maintenance. The customers are almost exclusively major 40 4.0 industrial companies and municipalities. The company’s 30 2.0 main vision is to be the obvious choice for customers and 20 0.0 employees who want to build and optimize for a 10 -2.0 sustainable future.

0 -4.0

quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

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Eurocon Consulting

Q4 deviations, lower utilisation and write-downs hurt margins SEKm P&L Q4'18 Q4'19 Q4'19e Diff vs. ABGSC Net sales 66.6 65.3 72.3 -10% Other income 0.8 0.3 0.3 19% Purchases of services and materials -6.6 -7.0 -7.9 -12% Personnel costs -46.1 -51.1 -52.1 -2% Other external costs -7.8 -7.0 -6.1 16% -of which non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 - EBITDA 6.1 0.5 6.4 -93% Depreciations and amortizations -0.9 -2.8 -3.2 -13% EBIT 5.2 (2.4) 3.2 -174% Adj. EBIT 5.2 (2.4) 3.2 -174% Net Financials 0.6 0.7 -0.3 -337% Profit before tax 5.7 (1.7) 2.9 -158% Tax -1.4 0.2 -0.6 -135% Net income 4.3 (1.4) 2.2 -164%

Grow th Sales grow th y-o-y -5.6% -2.0% 8.5% -10.6 pp Sales grow th q-o-q 38.1% 23.4% 36.8% -13.3 pp Adj. EBIT grow th -16.6% -145.7% -38.6% -107.1 pp

Margins Adj. EBITDA margin 9.2% 0.7% 8.9% -8.2 pp Adj. EBIT margin 7.8% -3.6% 4.4% -8.0 pp

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Forecast changes SEKm Old forecast New forecast Change P&L 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e Net sales 285.3 301.4 262.7 278.4 292.4 -7.9% -7.6% Personnel costs -200.7 -208.7 -185.9 -191.1 -196.9 -7.4% -8.4% Other Opex -52.0 -54.4 -49.2 -54.4 -60.1 -5.4% 0.0% -of which non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - D&A -13.0 -13.1 -13.0 -13.1 -13.1 0.0% 0.0% Adj. EBIT 20.6 26.1 15.5 20.8 23.4 -24.9% -20.6% Adj. EBIT margin 7.2% 8.7% 5.9% 7.5% 8.0% -1.3 pp -1.2 pp

Net Financials -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0% 0.0% Profit before tax 20.5 26.0 15.4 20.7 23.3 -25.0% -20.6%

Tax -4.5 -5.7 -3.4 -4.5 -5.1 -25.0% -20.6%- Net income 16.0 20.3 12.0 16.1 18.1 -25.0% -20.6%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 3

Eurocon Consulting

Quarterly and yearly overview SEKm P&L Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Net sales 74.4 68.6 52.9 65.3 68.3 65.7 54.6 74.1 236.5 252.9 261.2 262.7 278.4 292.4 Other income 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Purchases of services and materials -7.9 -6.1 -6.5 -7.0 -6.3 -5.4 -5.3 -6.8 -21.0 -19.6 -27.6 -23.7 -24.6 -25.7 Personnel costs -51.4 -51.1 -38.3 -51.1 -49.4 -49.3 -37.4 -49.8 -158.3 -174.0 -191.9 -185.9 -191.1 -196.9 Other external costs -7.4 -5.3 -4.9 -7.0 -7.2 -4.8 -5.7 -7.8 -28.9 -31.3 -24.7 -25.5 -29.9 -34.4 -of which non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 7.8 6.2 3.4 0.5 5.6 6.5 6.4 10.0 30.9 28.5 17.8 28.5 33.8 36.4 Depreciations and amortizations -3.1 -3.4 -3.3 -2.8 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.1 -3.7 -12.6 -13.0 -13.1 -13.1 EBIT 4.7 2.8 0.1 -2.4 2.4 3.2 3.2 6.7 27.8 24.8 5.2 15.5 20.8 23.4 Adj. EBIT 4.7 2.8 0.1 -2.4 2.4 3.2 3.2 6.7 25.8 24.8 5.2 15.5 20.8 23.4 Net Financials -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 6.5 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Profit before tax 4.7 3.3 0.1 -1.7 2.1 2.9 2.9 6.4 28.0 31.3 6.4 15.4 20.7 23.3 Tax -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.4 -6.5 -5.8 -1.3 -3.4 -4.5 -5.1 Net income 3.8 2.7 0.0 -1.4 1.6 2.3 2.2 5.0 21.5 25.5 5.0 12.0 16.1 18.1

Growth Sales grow th y-o-y 5.5% 1.6% 9.6% -2.0% -8.2% -4.2% 3.2% 13.5% 10.4% 7.0% 3.3% 0.6% 6.0% 5.0% Sales grow th q-o-q 11.7% -7.8% -22.9% 23.4% 4.7% -3.9% -17.0% 35.8% Adj. EBIT grow th -52.7% -59.5% -97.0% ##### -49.0% 14.2% ##### ##### 24.8% -3.8% -78.9% ##### 34.2% 12.5%

Margins Adj. EBITDA margin 10.5% 9.0% 6.3% 0.7% 8.3% 9.8% 11.7% 13.4% 12.2% 11.3% 6.8% 10.8% 12.2% 12.5% Adj. EBIT margin 6.3% 4.1% 0.2% -3.6% 3.5% 4.9% 5.8% 9.1% 10.9% 9.8% 2.0% 5.9% 7.5% 8.0%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Sales growth y-o-y, and growth target 16% 14% 14% 14%

12% 10% 10% 10%

8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Growth y-o-y Growth target

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

EBIT margin, and margin target 13.0% 12.0% 11.7% 11.0% 10% 10.0% 9.6% 9.8% 9.0%

8.0% 7.9% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.1%

6.0% 5.9% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e EBIT margin EBIT margin target

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

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Eurocon Consulting

Valuation

Peer table Company Market Sales growth (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) P/E (x) 3-year CAGR ('19-'22e) EBIT-% Avg cap (SEKm) 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e Sales EBITDA EBIT ('20e-'22e)

Addnode 6,196 21% 6% 5% 1.6 1.5 1.5 14.1 13.1 12.1 25.6 22.5 17.7 28.2 24.8 24.5 10% 10% 12% 7.1% Data Respons 3,780 17% 5% na 1.7 1.6 na 12.4 11.8 na 16.7 15.8 na 22.9 20.9 na na na na na eWork Group 1,362 11% 8% 6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.1 9.0 8.5 12.5 10.8 10.0 14.1 12.0 11.0 8% 14% 17% 1.0% HiQ 2,747 3% 5% 4% 1.3 1.3 1.2 9.3 8.8 8.1 11.1 10.5 9.5 15.5 14.6 13.3 4% na 10% 12.4% Knowit 3,539 7% 6% 1% 1.0 0.9 0.9 8.2 7.6 7.7 10.0 9.2 9.2 13.4 12.2 12.3 5% 6% 7% 10.1% Rejlers 2,242 14% 4% na 1.0 0.9 na 8.3 7.6 na 15.2 13.0 na 17.3 14.8 na na na na na Semcon 1,320 6% 4% 2% 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.4 5.7 5.4 8.4 7.3 6.8 11.1 9.4 8.6 4% 8% 10% 8.9% Sweco 41,323 9% 5% 3% 2.0 1.9 1.9 15.9 15.0 14.6 21.3 20.0 19.3 25.2 23.6 22.4 5% 3% 7% 9.7% Tieto 32,677 73% 2% 2% 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.6 6.1 6.1 8.7 8.1 7.7 11.9 11.0 10.1 22% 31% 27% 12.5% ÅF 25,741 9% 4% 3% 1.5 1.4 1.4 11.8 11.0 10.4 16.4 14.9 14.1 17.7 16.2 14.5 6% 14% 10% 9.5%

Average 12,093 17% 5% 3% 1.2 1.1 1.1 10.3 9.6 9.1 14.6 13.2 11.8 21.7 19.2 17.7 8% 12% 13% 8.9% Median 3,659 10% 5% 3% 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.7 8.9 8.3 13.9 11.9 9.7 22.9 20.9 17.7 5% 10% 10% 9.6% Eurocon (ABGSCe) 212 1% 6% 5% 0.9 0.8 0.8 8.3 6.7 6.1 15.2 11.0 9.5 17.8 13.3 11.8 3% 6% -6% 5.1%

Eurocon premium/discount (+/-) -94% 23% 57% -25% -29% -31% -15% -24% -26% 10% -8% -2% -22% -36% -33% -41% -43% -156% -47%

Key Peers

Rejlers 2,242 14% 4% na 1.0 0.9 na 8.3 7.6 na 15.2 13.0 na 17.3 14.8 na na na na na Semcon 1,320 6% 4% 2% 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.4 5.7 5.4 8.4 7.3 6.8 11.1 9.4 8.6 4% 8% 10% 8.9% Sweco 41,323 9% 5% 3% 2.0 1.9 1.9 15.9 15.0 14.6 21.3 20.0 19.3 25.2 23.6 22.4 5% 3% 7% 9.7% ÅF 25,741 9% 4% 3% 1.5 1.4 1.4 11.8 11.0 10.4 16.4 14.9 14.1 17.7 16.2 14.5 6% 14% 10% 9.5%

Average 17,657 9% 4% 3% 1.3 1.2 1.3 10.6 9.8 10.1 15.3 13.8 13.4 17.8 16.0 15.2 5% 8% 9% 9.3% Median 13,992 9% 4% 3% 1.2 1.2 1.4 10.1 9.3 10.4 15.8 14.0 14.1 17.5 15.5 14.5 5% 8% 10% 9.5% Eurocon (ABGSCe) 212 1% 6% 5% 0.9 0.8 0.8 8.3 6.7 6.1 15.2 11.0 9.5 17.8 13.3 11.8 3% 6% -6% 5.1%

Eurocon premium/discount (+/-) -94% 45% 66% -27% -30% -45% -18% -27% -41% -4% -21% -32% 2% -14% -18% -41% -23% -159% -46%

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

EV/Sales (x) fwd. 12m (before Q4 revisions) EV/EBIT (x) fwd. 12m (before Q4 revisions) 1.2 14.0

1.1 13.0 12.0 1.0 11.0 0.9 11.2 10.0 0.8 0.8 9.0

0.7 8.0

0.6 7.0

0.5 6.0

Eurocon EV/S fwd 12m Average Eurocon EV/EBIT fwd 12m Average

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

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Net sales, SEKm EBIT, SEKm, and EBIT margins 350.0 30% 60.0 14.0%

292.4 300.0 278.4 25% 50.0 11.7% 12.0% 262.7 252.9 261.2 236.5 250.0 9.8% 10.0% 214.2 20% 40.0 9.6% 198.8 200.0 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% 173.7 7.5% 15% 30.0 7.1% 27.8 14% 14% 24.8 150.0 23.4 6.0% 20.6 5.9% 20.8 10% 10% 20.0 15.8 15.5 100.0 4.0% 8% 12.3 7% 6% 50.0 5% 5% 10.0 2.0%5.2 2.0% 3%

0.0 1% 0% 0.0 0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Net Sales Growth y-o-y EBIT EBIT margin

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Quarterly sales, SEKm Quarterly EBIT and margins

80.0 74.4 25.0 20.0% 70.6 70.5 67.5 68.6 70.0 66.6 65.3 61.7 20.0 15.7% 59.2 15.0% 60.0 14.1% 52.9 48.2 15.0 12.0% 50.0 45.0 10.3% 10.0% 40.0 9.7 8.8% 10.0 10.0 7.8% 7.1 6.9 6.3% 6.0% 6.2 5.6% 30.0 5.2 5.0% 4.7 4.1% 5.0 20.0 2.7 2.7 2.8

0.2%0.1 0.0% 10.0 0.0 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 0.0 -3.6%-2.4 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 -5.0 -5.0% Adj EBIT, SEKm Adj EBIT margin

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Revenue and costs per employee EPS and DPS progression

1.20 1.11 1.10 100% 1.05 1.08 1.03 1.01 0.98 0.96 0.96 90% 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.90 0.88 88% 83% 81% 80% 0.80 0.70 0.58 70% 70% 0.60 0.50 0.50 64% 0.36 0.35 60%0.35 60% 0.40 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.23 0.25 50% 0.15 0.20 0.11 0.1 0.10 40% 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -0.10 30% Sales/FTE Opex/FTE EPS DPS Payout ratio

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

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Income Statement (SEKm) Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020e Q2 2020e Q3 2020e Q4 2020e Sales 74 69 53 65 68 66 55 74 COGS 0 -13 -14 -25 -19 -16 -13 -16 Gross profit 74 56 38 40 49 49 41 58 Other operating items -67 -50 -35 -39 -43 -43 -35 -48 EBITDA 8 6 3 0 6 6 6 10 Depreciation and amortisation -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 EBITA 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7 EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7 Net financial items -0 0 0 1 1 -0 -0 -0 Pretax profit 5 3 0 -1 3 3 3 6 Tax -1 -1 -0 0 -0 -1 -1 -1 Net profit 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5 EPS 0.09 0.06 0.00 -0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.12 EPS Adj 0.09 0.06 0.00 -0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.12 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tax rate (%) 18.9 19.8 32.0 22.7 14.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 Gross margin (%) 100.0 81.3 72.7 61.1 71.7 75.1 75.7 78.2 EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 9.0 6.3 0.7 8.3 9.8 11.7 13.4 EBITA margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1 EBIT margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1 Pretax margin (%) 6.3 4.6 0.3 -1.5 4.5 4.4 5.2 8.6 Net margin (%) 5.1 3.7 0.2 -1.1 3.9 3.5 4.1 6.7 Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020e Q2 2020e Q3 2020e Q4 2020e Sales growth (%) 5.5 1.6 9.6 -2.0 -8.2 -4.2 3.2 13.5 EBITDA growth (%) -28.4 -21.2 -6.4 -92.4 -27.6 4.0 91.0 2,035.6 EBIT growth (%) -52.7 -59.5 -97.0 -chg -49.0 14.2 3,846.9 +chg Net profit growth (%) -68.9 -49.7 -97.1 -chg -29.9 -11.2 1,844.9 +chg EPS growth (%) -68.9 -49.7 -97.1 -chg -29.9 -11.2 1,844.9 +chg Adj earnings numbers Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020e Q2 2020e Q3 2020e Q4 2020e EBITDA Adj 8 6 3 0 6 6 6 10 EBITDA Adj margin (%) 10.5 9.0 6.3 0.7 8.3 9.8 11.7 13.4 EBITA Adj 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7 EBITA Adj margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1 EBIT Adj 5 3 0 -2 2 3 3 7 EBIT Adj margin (%) 6.3 4.1 0.2 -3.6 3.5 4.9 5.8 9.1 Pretax profit Adj 5 3 0 -1 3 3 3 6 Net profit Adj 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5 Net profit to shareholders Adj 4 3 0 -1 3 2 2 5 Net Adj margin (%) 5.1 3.7 0.2 -1.1 3.9 3.5 4.1 6.7 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

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Income Statement (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Sales 152 174 199 215 239 253 261 263 278 292 COGS -16 -13 -16 -12 -21 -20 -28 -24 -25 -26 Gross profit 136 161 183 203 218 233 234 239 254 267 Other operating items -122 -146 -164 -180 -187 -205 -216 -211 -220 -230 EBITDA 14 15 19 24 31 28 18 28 34 36 Depreciation and amortisation -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -13 -13 -13 -13 Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 -11 -11 -11 EBITA 11 12 16 21 28 25 5 15 21 23 EO items 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 11 12 16 21 28 25 5 15 21 23 Net financial items -1 1 1 -1 0 6 1 -0 -0 -0 Pretax profit 10 13 17 20 28 31 6 15 21 23 Tax -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 -3 -5 -5 Net profit 8 10 13 15 21 26 5 12 16 18 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit to shareholders 8 10 13 15 21 26 5 12 16 18 EPS 0.19 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.50 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41 EPS Adj 0.19 0.27 0.35 0.36 0.46 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41 Total extraordinary items after tax 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 Leasing payments 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12 -12 -12 -12 Tax rate (%) 25.5 25.7 22.6 24.6 23.2 18.4 21.1 22.0 22.0 22.0 Gross margin (%) 89.2 92.4 91.9 94.6 91.2 92.3 89.4 91.0 91.2 91.2 EBITDA margin (%) 9.1 8.8 9.5 11.0 12.9 11.3 6.8 10.8 12.2 12.5 EBITA margin (%) 7.4 7.0 7.9 9.6 11.6 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0 EBIT margin (%) 7.4 7.0 7.9 9.6 11.6 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0 Pretax margin (%) 6.9 7.4 8.3 9.3 11.7 12.4 2.4 5.9 7.4 8.0 Net margin (%) 5.1 5.5 6.4 7.0 9.0 10.1 1.9 4.6 5.8 6.2 Growth rates Y/Y 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Sales growth (%) -5.7 14.7 14.6 7.8 11.2 5.8 3.3 0.6 6.0 5.0 EBITDA growth (%) -31.1 10.7 23.5 25.4 30.7 -7.9 -37.4 59.6 18.9 7.7 EBIT growth (%) -27.3 8.6 29.6 30.8 34.5 -10.7 -78.9 195.6 34.2 12.5 Net profit growth (%) -25.8 22.8 33.9 17.7 42.6 18.8 -80.3 138.1 34.4 12.5 EPS growth (%) -27.3 22.1 33.9 16.6 39.6 18.8 -80.3 131.1 34.4 12.5 Profitability 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e ROE (%) 15.9 19.3 24.1 25.3 30.4 30.6 5.8 13.4 16.6 17.4 ROE Adj (%) 15.9 22.3 27.6 25.3 27.6 30.6 5.8 13.4 16.6 17.4 ROCE (%) 21.1 21.6 27.0 31.8 36.8 28.1 4.8 12.2 15.4 16.5 ROCE Adj(%) 21.1 24.3 30.2 31.8 34.2 28.1 4.8 12.2 15.4 16.5 ROIC (%) 29.2 20.0 25.4 36.0 35.2 24.8 4.2 10.5 14.0 15.6 ROIC Adj (%) 29.2 22.4 28.4 36.0 32.7 24.8 4.2 10.5 14.0 15.6 Adj earnings numbers 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e EBITDA Adj 14 17 21 24 29 28 18 28 34 36 EBITDA Adj margin (%) 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.0 12.1 11.3 6.8 10.8 12.2 12.5 EBITDA lease Adj 14 17 21 24 29 28 6 17 22 25 EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.0 12.1 11.3 2.4 6.4 8.0 8.5 EBITA Adj 11 14 18 21 26 25 5 15 21 23 EBITA Adj margin (%) 7.4 7.9 8.8 9.6 10.8 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0 EBIT Adj 11 14 18 21 26 25 5 15 21 23 EBIT Adj margin (%) 7.4 7.9 8.8 9.6 10.8 9.8 2.0 5.9 7.5 8.0 Pretax profit Adj 10 14 18 20 26 31 6 15 21 23 Net profit Adj 8 11 15 15 19 26 5 12 16 18 Net profit to shareholders Adj 8 11 15 15 19 26 5 12 16 18 Net Adj margin (%) 5.1 6.4 7.3 7.0 8.1 10.1 1.9 4.6 5.8 6.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

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Cash Flow Statement (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e EBITDA 14 15 19 24 31 28 18 28 34 36 Net financial items -1 1 1 -1 0 6 1 -0 -0 -0 Paid tax 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 -3 -5 -5 Non-cash items -3 1 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash flow before change in WC 10 13 11 18 25 29 18 25 29 31 Change in WC -4 -12 6 2 -3 -5 -4 0 1 -1 Operating cash flow 7 1 16 20 23 6 6 25 30 30 CAPEX tangible fixed assets -14 -3 -5 -3 -1 9 9 -3 -3 -3 CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 -21 0 -7 -7 0 0 Free cash flow -8 -2 12 18 1 15 8 15 27 27 Dividend paid -11 -9 -6 -10 -13 -15 -15 -4 -9 -11 Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 -21 0 0 0 0 0 Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11 -11 -11 -11 Other non cash items -3 -0 6 4 9 8 -17 7 0 0 Decrease in net IB debt -23 -5 7 11 -13 -3 -35 7 7 5 Balance Sheet (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Goodwill 20 20 20 20 52 52 62 62 62 62 Other intangible assets 1 1 1 1 5 4 4 4 4 4 Tangible fixed assets 7 7 8 7 7 7 2 3 4 4 Right-of-use asset 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 Total other fixed assets 8 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 Fixed assets 36 35 35 33 69 66 95 95 96 97 Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Receivables 41 53 62 60 71 82 73 73 78 82 Other current assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash and liquid assets 18 9 17 27 14 12 10 16 24 29 Total assets 96 97 114 120 154 160 177 185 198 209 Shareholders equity 49 50 56 63 78 89 86 93 101 108 Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 Total equity 49 50 56 63 78 89 85 93 100 107 Long-term debt 8 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Leasing liability 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 Total other long-term liabilities 1 5 1 0 12 1 2 2 2 2 Short-term debt 0 2 2 2 2 2 13 13 13 13 Accounts payable 38 37 51 52 59 65 53 53 58 61 Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total liabilities and equity 96 97 114 120 154 160 177 185 198 209 Net IB debt -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 28 21 14 9 Net IB debt excl. pension debt -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 28 21 14 9 Net IB debt excl. leasing -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 3 -4 -11 -16 Capital invested 40 51 46 41 80 83 115 116 116 118 Working capital 4 16 10 8 11 17 20 20 19 20 EV breakdown 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Market cap. diluted (m) 142 138 214 207 303 257 244 214 214 214 Net IB debt Adj -10 -4 -11 -22 -10 -7 28 21 14 9 Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EV 133 134 202 185 294 250 272 235 228 223 Capital efficiency 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Total assets turnover (%) 166.8 181.1 189.7 184.0 174.7 161.4 155.1 145.0 145.3 143.7 Working capital/sales (%) 1.4 5.7 6.6 4.2 4.0 5.5 7.1 7.8 7.2 6.8 Financial risk and debt service 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Net debt/equity -0.20 -0.09 -0.20 -0.36 -0.12 -0.08 0.33 0.23 0.14 0.08 Net debt/market cap -0.07 -0.03 -0.07 -0.11 -0.04 -0.02 0.11 0.10 0.07 0.04 Equity ratio (%) 51.6 51.6 49.5 52.4 50.8 55.6 48.1 50.2 50.5 51.5 Net IB debt adj./equity -0.20 -0.09 -0.20 -0.36 -0.12 -0.08 0.33 0.23 0.14 0.08 Current ratio 1.57 1.61 1.46 1.61 1.38 1.38 1.08 1.17 1.23 1.30 EBITDA/net interest 18.10 -22.28 -25.03 35.50 -161.03 -4.39 -15.53 284.60 338.46 364.38 Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.71 -0.28 -0.60 -0.95 -0.31 -0.24 1.58 0.75 0.41 0.24 Net IB debt/EBITDA lease Adj -0.71 -0.26 -0.55 -0.95 -0.33 -0.24 0.53 -0.21 -0.50 -0.66 Interest cover 14.69 -17.75 -20.94 30.98 -144.63 -3.82 -4.56 154.76 207.62 233.54 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

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Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Shares outstanding adj. 41 41 41 42 43 43 43 44 44 44 Fully diluted shares Adj 41 41 41 42 43 43 43 44 44 44 EPS 0.19 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.50 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41 Dividend per share Adj 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 EPS Adj 0.19 0.27 0.35 0.36 0.46 0.60 0.12 0.27 0.37 0.41 BVPS 1.20 1.20 1.36 1.50 1.83 2.08 2.00 2.12 2.28 2.44 BVPS Adj 0.68 0.68 0.84 0.99 0.50 0.77 0.46 0.62 0.78 0.95 Net IB debt / share -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 Share price 3.45 3.34 5.15 4.96 7.10 6.02 5.70 4.85 4.85 4.85 Market cap. (m) 142 138 214 207 303 257 244 214 214 214 Valuation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e P/E 18.3 14.5 16.7 13.8 14.1 10.1 48.5 17.8 13.3 11.8 EV/sales 0.87 0.77 1.01 0.86 1.23 0.99 1.04 0.90 0.82 0.76 EV/EBITDA 9.6 8.8 10.7 7.8 9.5 8.8 15.3 8.3 6.7 6.1 EV/EBITA 11.8 11.0 12.8 9.0 10.6 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5 EV/EBIT 11.8 11.0 12.8 9.0 10.6 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5 Dividend yield (%) 5.8 4.5 4.9 6.0 4.9 5.8 1.8 4.1 5.2 6.2 FCF yield (%) -5.4 -1.3 5.5 8.5 0.4 5.8 3.2 7.0 12.8 12.8 Lease adj. FCF yield (%) -5.4 -1.3 5.5 8.5 0.4 5.8 -1.4 1.8 7.5 7.5 P/BVPS 2.88 2.78 3.79 3.30 3.88 2.90 2.85 2.29 2.13 1.99 P/BVPS Adj 5.06 4.91 6.12 4.99 14.26 7.82 12.45 7.83 6.18 5.13 P/E Adj 18.3 12.5 14.6 13.8 15.6 10.1 48.5 17.8 13.3 11.8 EV/EBITDA Adj 9.6 8.0 9.8 7.8 10.2 8.8 15.3 8.3 6.7 6.1 EV/EBITA Adj 11.8 9.8 11.5 9.0 11.4 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5 EV/EBIT Adj 11.8 9.8 11.5 9.0 11.4 10.1 52.0 15.2 11.0 9.5 EV/cap. employed 2.3 2.4 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 Investment ratios 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Capex/sales 9.3 1.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 -3.4 -3.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 Capex/depreciation 546.3 95.9 149.8 88.7 17.0 -234.2 nm 131.3 132.6 139.2 Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets 191.4 42.0 57.5 38.8 7.7 -125.0 -388.1 92.0 78.7 67.0 Capex intangibles/definite intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles 35.0 43.8 38.4 43.8 45.2 53.4 0 70.1 59.4 48.2 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

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Analyst certification I/We, Stefan Knutsson, Victor Forssell, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report.

Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

Important Company Specific Disclosure ssss The following disclosures relate to the relationship between ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and the companies covered by ABG Sundal Collier referred to in this research report.

Unless disclosed in this section, ABG Sundal Collier has no required regulatory disclosures to make in relation to an ownersh ip position for the analyst(s) and members of the analyst's household, ownership by ABG Sundal Collier, ownership in ABG Sundal Collier by the company(ies) to whom the report(s) refer(s) to, market making, managed or co-managed public offerings, compensation for provision of certain services, directorship of the analyst, or a member of the analyst's household, or in relation to any contractual obligations to the issuance of this research report.

ABG Sundal Collier has undertaken a contractual obligation to issue this report and receives predetermined compensation from the company

covered in this report. w mo

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ABG Sundal Collier is not aware of any other actual, material conflicts of interest of the analyst or ABG Sundal Collier of which the analyst

knows or has reason to know at the time of the publication of this report.

Production of report: 25/02/2020 15:34 CET. All prices are as of market close on 24 February, 2020 unless otherwise noted.

Disclaimer This document has been prepared by ABG Sundal Collier which is the marketing name referring to all or any of ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG Sundal Collier AB or ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP and any of their affiliated or associated companies and their directors, officers, representatives and employees.

This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.

This research product has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination.

This report is provided solely for the information and use of professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Research reports prepared by ABG Sundal Collier are for information purposes only. ABG Sundal Collier accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but ABG Sundal Collier makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the judgment of ABG Sundal Collier on the dat e of this report and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This research report does not, and does not attempt to contain everything material that there is to be said about Eurocon Consulting .

The compensation of our research analysts is determined exclusively by research management and senior management, but not including investment banking management. Compensation is not based on specific investment banking revenues, however, it is determined from the profitability of the ABG Sundal Collier Group, which includes earnings from investment banking operations and other business. Investors should assume that ABG Sundal Collier is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk and sales personnel and other departments for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. From time to time, ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and any shareholders, directors, officers or employees thereof may (I) have a position in, or otherwise be interested in, any securities directly or indirectly connected to the subject of this report, or (II) perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other services from, a company mentioned in this report. ABG Sundal Collier relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas of ABG Sundal Collier, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of ABG Sundal Collier.

Norway: ABG Sundal Collier ASA is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet); Sweden: ABG Sundal Collier AB is regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen); UK: This report is a communication made, or approved for communication in the UK, by ABG Sundal Collier Partners LLP, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the conduct of its business. US: This report is being distributed in the United States in accordance with FINRA Rule 1050(f)(3)(B) by ABG Sundal Collier Inc., a FINRA member which accepts responsibility for its content. Research analysts are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA or the NYSE, and are not associated persons of ABG Sundal Collier Inc. and therefore not subject to FINRA Rule 2241, the research analyst conflict rules. Research reports distributed in the U.S are intended solely for “major institutional investors”, as defined under Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each U.S major institutional investor that receives a copy of this research report by its acceptance represents that it agrees it will not distribute this research report to any other person. Any U.S. major institutional investor receiving this report who wishes to effect 25 February 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 11

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transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ABG Sundal Collier Inc., not its affiliates. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from ABG Sundal Collier Inc., on request.

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ABGSC Research Department

Joint Global Head of Research John Olaisen +47 22 01 61 87 Christer Linde +46 8 566 286 90

Strategy Metals & Mining Christer Linde, Quant/Technical +46 8 566 286 90 Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37 Derek Laliberte +46 8 566 286 78 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

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Construction & Real Estate Online Gaming Tobias Kaj +46 8 566 286 21 Aksel Øverland Engebakken +47 22 01 61 11 Bengt Jonassen +47 22 01 60 98 Erik Moberg +46 8 566 286 87 Laurits Louis Kjaergaard +45 35 46 30 12 Stefan Knutsson +46 8 566 286 37 Consumer Goods Jesper Birch-Jensen +46 8 566 286 13 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35 Pulp & Paper Morten Raunholt Eismark +45 35 46 30 16 Martin Melbye +47 22 01 61 37 Ludvig Kapanen +46 8 566 286 91 Øystein Elton Lodgaard +47 22 01 60 26 Credit Research Rikard Magnus Braaten +47 22 01 60 86 Renewable Energy Andreas Johannessen +47 22 01 60 31 Casper Blom +45 35 46 30 15 Haakon Amundsen +47 22 01 60 25 Petter Nyström +47 22 01 61 35

Glenn Kringhaug +47 22 01 61 62 Retail Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen +47 22 01 61 65 Fredrik Ivarsson +46 8 566 286 95 Eric Wahlström +46 8 566 286 25 Ludvig Kapanen +46 8 566 286 91 Financials Seafood Magnus Andersson +46 8 566 294 69 Martin Kaland +47 22 01 60 67 Mads Thinggaard +45 35 46 30 18

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