VERIFICATION OF THE SEECOF-7 SUMMER 2012 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE TERRITORY OF SERBIA IN RELATION TO DIFFERENT CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE PERIODS
VERIFICATION OF THE SEECOF-7 SUMMER 2012 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE TERRITORY OF SERBIA IN RELATION TO THE 1961-1990 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD
Temperature
According to the SEECOF-7 outlook, in entire Serbia, the summer of 2012 was expected to be warmer than normal (temperature in the upper tercile) with 60% probability, normal with 25% probability and below normal with 15% probability, compared to the 1961-1990 climatological reference period.
Meteorological monitoring showed that summer 2012 was the warmest summer on record for 19 stations in Serbia from the beginning of meteorological measurements. Temperature was above normal in whole Serbia (according to the tercile method) (Figure 1).
The outlook for a warm summer was correct for Serbia.
Precipitation
The SEECOF-7 climate outlook for the summer of 2012 in Serbia indicated near- or below- average conditions (precipitation in lower tercile with 40% probability) .
Monitoring of precipitation showed extremely dry summer conditions in entire Serbia, with the exception of one station in north-eastern Serbia, where summer was in the normal category (Figure 2).
The outlook for a dry summer was correct for most parts of Serbia.
1 JJA 2012 JJA 2012 Temperature according to tercile classification Precipitation amount according to terciles classification (Reference period 1961-1990) (Reference period 1961-1990)
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES PERCENTILES CATEGORIES
>66 WET >66 WARM
33-66 NORMAL 33-66 NORMAL
<33 DRY <33 COLD
Figure 1. Monitoring of the summer 2012 Figure 2. Monitoring of the summer 2012 temperature in Serbia by using the tercile method, precipitation in Serbia by using the tercile in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period. method, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period.
Analysis of the 2012 summer season in Serbia compared to the 1961-1990 reference period
Temperature
Summer 2012 was the warmest summer on record for 19 meteorological stations in Serbia.
During summer 2012, mean seasonal temperature ranged from 15.6ºC on Kopaonik Mountain (central Serbia), up to 25.9ºC in Belgrade, surpassing maximum mean temperatures on record for all meteorological stations.
Mean summer temperature anomalies (compared to the 1961-1990 reference period) were positive in the entire Serbian territory and ranged from 3.1°C in Veliko Gradiste (north-eastern Serbia) up to 5.0°C on Kopaonik Mountain (central Serbia) (Figure 3).
Mean maximum summer temperature anomalies ranged from 4 to 5ºC, and up to 6ºC on mountains. During summer 2012, maximum daily temperature for Serbia was recorded in Cuprija (central Serbia) on July 15, and it measured 41.5 ºC.
Mean minimum summer temperature anomalies ranged from 2 up to 4ºC. Minimum daily temperature of 2.6ºC was recorded on Kopaonik Mountain (central Serbia) on June 26, and in Sjenica (south-western Serbia) on August 29.
2 According to the percentile method, mean summer air temperature was in the extremely warm category for entire Serbia (Figure 4).
According to the tercile method, mean summer air temperature was in the warm category for entire Serbia.
JJA 2012 JJA 2012. Temperature anomaly Temperature according to percentile classification (Reference period 1961-1990) (Reference period 1961-1990)
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES °C >98 EXTREMELY WARM
4 91-98 VERY WARM 3
76-90 WARM 2
25-75 NORMAL 1
0 10-24 COLD
-1 2-9 VERY COLD
-2 <2 EXTREMELY COLD -3
-4
-5
Figure 3. Mean seasonal temperature anomaly in Figure 4. Assessment of mean seasonal Serbia during the summer of 2012, in relation to temperature in Serbia during the summer of 2012 the 1961-1990 climatological reference period. by using the percentile method, compared to the 1961-1990 climatological reference period.
The number of summer days with maximum daily air temperature above 25ºC was surpassed at all meteorological stations in Serbia. A total of 88 summer days was recorded in Belgrade, surpassing the average by 26 days. The largest number of summer days (91) was recorded in Nis, Leskovac (south-eastern Serbia) and Zajecar (eastern Serbia) (Figure 5).
The number of tropical days with maximum daily air temperature above 30ºC was surpassed in entire Serbia. The largest number of tropical days was recorded in Leskovac (south-eastern Serbia) (73), surpassing the average by 47 days, while 62 tropical days were recorded in Belgrade, 40 days above the average (Figure 6).
The number of tropical nights with minimum temperature above 20ºC was surpassed in most of Serbia. A total of 52 tropical nights was recorded in Belgrade, which is the largest number of tropical nights on record for Belgrade.
3 JJA 2012 JJA 2012 Summer days anomaly Tropical days anomaly (Referenceperiod 1961-1990) (Reference period 1961-1990)
45 45
38 36
31 27
24 18
17 9
10 0
Figure 5. Anomaly of the number of summer Figure 6. Anomaly of the number of tropical days days during the summer of 2012 in relation to the during the summer of 2012 in relation to the 1961-1990 normal. 1961-1990 normal.
Mean summer air temperature anomaly from the 1961-1990. normal Belgrade - period 1888-2012.
5.0 2012 2010-2012 4.5 2000-2009 1990-1999 4.0 1970-1989 1950-1969 3.5 1930-1949 3.0 1910-1929 1888-1909 2.5
2.0 C) from 1961-1990.normal from the C) o 1.5
1.0
0.5 Anomaly Tsr ( Anomaly 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920 20122003194620072000195020082011195219921963199819282010193120021994192720091988 4.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7 25.9 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.0 23.0 22.7
Ordinal year - year - anomaly Tsr (oC) from the 1961-1990. normal - Tsr Figure 7. Descending order of 20 hottest summers in Belgrade during the 1888-2012 period
Three heat waves were recorded on the whole Serbian territory during the summer of 2012, and in some parts four or five (Heat wave definition: period of 6 or more consecutive days in which the maximum temperature is minimum 5.1˚C higher than the average maximum temperature for each of those days during the 1961-1990
4 period). The first heat wave was recorded between 16 to 24 June, the second from 29 June to 15 July and the third from 19 to 26 August. Maximum daily temperature anomalies from normal (reference period 1960-1990) were up to 14.7°C.
Precipitation
Summer 2012 was one of the driest summers on record for Serbia.
Summer precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period, below average in almost entire Serbia, exception is one station in north- eastern Serbia (Veliko Gradiste), where it was around normal (Figure 9).
According to the percentile method, summer precipitation sum was in the extremely dry, very dry and dry categories in almost entire Serbia. The exception to that were two stations in north-eastern and south-eastern Serbia respectively, where precipitation was in the normal category (Figure 10).
According to the tercile method, summer precipitation sum was below normal in entire Serbia, with the exception of one station in north-eastern Serbia, where it was within the range of normal values.
Belgrade - period 1888-2012. 150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60 2012 2010-2012
50 2000-2009 1990-1999 summer precipitation- RR (mm) 40 1970-1989 30 1950-1969
20 1930-1949 1910-1929 10 1888-1909 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
192820002012196119351922191719621907191119231946195019631958191619181988190919271993196719982008199018881944201119641902
35.8 56.2 59.5 76.5 84.3 86.5 86.7 87.8 88.4102.0102.2104.8108.4109.1110.0112.9114.4115.0125.3130.9131.8137.8141.0141.9142.6147.5147.8148.3148.6149.0
ordinal year - RR Figure 8. Ascending order of 30 driest summers in Belgrade for the 1888-2012 period
5 JJA 2012 JJA 2012. Precipitation in percent of normal Precipitation amount according to percentile classification (Reference period 1961-1990) (Reference period 1961-1990)
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES
>98 EXTREMELY WET
400 350 91-98 VERY WET 300
275 76-90 WET 250
225 25-75 NORMAL 200 175 10-24 DRY 150 125 2-9 VERY DRY 100 75 <2 EXTREMELY DRY 50 25 0
Figure 9. Precipitation sum for the summer of Figure 10. Assessment of precipitation sums for the 2012 in Serbia in percentages from the 1961- summer of 2012 in Serbia by using the percentile 1990 normal. method, for the 1961-1990 reference period.
Absolute daily precipitation quantity maximum was surpassed in Veliko Gradiste (north-eastern Serbia) on July 25, amounting 152,8 mm. Precipitation quantity measuring above 50 mm was also recorded in Leskovac (south-eastern Serbia) on July 26 (55,8 mm).
JJA 2012 Days with precipitation ≥ 0.1 mm (Reference period 1961-1990)
-9
-12
-15
-18
-21
-24
Figure 11. Discrepancy between the number of days during summer 2012 with precipitation higher than or equal to 1mm and the 1961- 1990 period average.
6 The number of days with precipitation of 1 mm and above was 24 days below normal on Kopaonik Mountain (central Serbia), and 7 days below normal in Palic (northern Serbia) (Figure 11).
Analysis of the 2012 summer season for Serbia compared to the 1971-2000 climatological reference period
Temperature
Mean summer temperature anomalies (compared to the 1971-2000 reference period) ranged from 2.8°C in Zajecar (eastern Serbia) up to 4.4°C in Belgrade (Figure 12).
According to the percentile method, air temperature was in the extremely warm category in most of Serbia (compared to the 1971-2000 reference period) (Figure 13).
According to the tercile method, air temperature was in the warm category in entire Serbia (Figure 14).
JJA 2012 Temperature anomaly (Reference period 1971-2000)
°C
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Figure 12. Mean seasonal temperature anomalies in Serbia during the summer of 2012 in relation to the 1971-2000 normal.
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JJA 2012. JJA 2012 Temperature according to percentile classification Temperature according to tercile classification (Reference period 1971-2000) (Reference period 1971-2000)
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES >98 EXTREMELY WARM
91-98 VERY WARM >66 WARM
76-90 WARM
25-75 NORMAL
10-24 COLD 33-66 NORMAL
2-9 VERY COLD
<2 EXTREMELY COLD
<33 COLD
Figure 13. Assessment of air temperature in Figure 14. Assessment of temperature in Serbia Serbia for the summer of 2012 by using the for the summer of 2012 by using the tercile percentile method, compared to the 1971-2000 method, compared to the 1971-2000 reference reference period. period.
Precipitation
Summer precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period, below average in almost entire Serbia. The only exception was one station in north-eastern Serbia, where precipitation sum was within the range of normal values (Figure 15).
According to the percentile method, summer precipitation sum was in the extremely dry, very dry and dry categories in most of Serbia. The exception to that were some parts of eastern Serbia where precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 16).
According to the tercile method, precipitation sum was below normal in entire Serbia, except at one station in north-easern Serbia, where it was within the range of normal values (Figure 17).
8 JJA 2012 Precipitation in percent of normal (Reference period 1971-2000)
%
400 350 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0
Figure 15. Summer precipitation sums in Serbia in 2012 in achieved percentages from the 1971-2000 normal.
JJA 2012. JJA 2012 Precipitation amount according to percentille classification Precipitation amount according to tercile classification (Reference period 1971-2000) (Reference period 1971-2000)
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES TERCILES CATEGORIES
>98 EXTREMELY WET
>66 WET 91-98 VERY WET
76-90 WET
25-75 NORMAL 33-66 NORMAL
10-24 DRY
2-9 VERY DRY
<2 EXTREMELY DRY <33 DRY
Figure 16. Assessment of precipitation sum in Figure 17. Assessment of precipitation sum in Serbia during the summer of 2012 by using the Serbia during the summer of 2011 by using the percentile method, in relation to the 1971-2000 tercile method, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period. reference period.
9 Analysis of the 2012 summer season for Serbia compared to the 1981-2010 reference period
Temperature
Mean summer temperature anomalies (compared to the 1981-2010 reference period) ranged from 1.7°C in Banatski Karlovac (north-eastern Serbia) up to 3.7°C in Belgrade and Kursumlija (south-eastern Serbia) (Figure 18).
According to the percentile method, air temperature was in the extremely warm category in entire Serbia (compared to the 1981-2010 reference period) (Figure 19).
According to the tercile method, air temperature was in the warm category in entire Serbia (Figure 20).
JJA 2012 Temperature anomaly (Reference period 1981-2010)
°C
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Figure 18. Mean seasonal temperature anomalies in Serbia during the summer of 2012 in relation to the 1981-2010 normal.
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JJA 2012. JJA 2012 Temperature according to percentile classification Temperature according to tercile classification (Reference period 1981-2010) (Reference period 1981-2010)
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES
PERCENTILES CATEGORIES >98 EXTREMELY WARM
91-98 VERY WARM
>66 WARM
76-90 WARM
25-75 NORMAL
10-24 COLD 33-66 NORMAL
2-9 VERY COLD
<2 EXTREMELY COLD
<33 COLD
Figure 19. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia Figure 20. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia for the summer of 2012 by using the percentile for the summer of 2012 by using the tercile method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period. period.
Precipitation
Summer precipitation sum for 2012 for Serbia was below average in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period. The only exception was one station in north-eastern Serbia, where precipitation sum was within the range of normal values (Figure 21).
According to the percentile method, summer precipitation sum was in the extremely dry, very dry and dry categories in most of Serbia. The exception to that were some parts in eastern and southern Serbia (Figure 22).
Analysis of summer precipitation according to the tercile method shows that precipitation sum was in the dry category in entire Serbia, with the exception of one station in north-eastern Serbia, where precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 23).
11 JJA 2012 Precipitation in percent of nornal (Reference period 1981-2010)
%
400 350 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0
Figure 21. Precipitation sums in Serbia during the summer of 2012 in percentages from the 1981-2010 normal.
JJA 2012. JJA 2012 Precipitation amount according to percentille classification Precipitation amount according to tercile classification (Reference period 1981-2010) (Reference period 1981-2010)
TERCILES CATEGORIES PERCENTILES CATEGORIES
>98 EXTREMELY WET
>66 WET 91-98 VERY WET
76-90 WET
25-75 NORMAL 33-66 NORMAL
10-24 DRY
2-9 VERY DRY
<2 EXTREMELY DRY <33 DRY
Figure 22. Assessment of seasonal precipitation Figure 23. Assessment of seasonal precipitation sums in Serbia during the summer of 2012 by sums in Serbia during the summer of 2012 by using the percentile method, in relation to the using the tercile method, in relation to the 1981- 1981-2010 reference period. 2010 reference period.
12 Drought in the year 2012 and its consequences
Very high air temperatures in June, July and August 2012, heat waves, and huge deficit of rainfall caused severe to extreme drought conditions on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. The areas most prolonged to drought were Vojvodina and central Serbia, except for a small part on the east of the country (South Banat and Branicevo) who had near normal moisture conditions (Figure 24).
The estimated yield crops, conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, shows that the production of maize in the year 2012 decreased by 46% compared to the production in the previous year, 42% for soybeans, sunflower and sugar beet for about 23% and 32% for potatoes. Wheat production fell by 7% and forecasted decrease in fruit production by 40% for apple and 37% for plum. Grape production decreased by 12%. Total damages caused in crop and livestock production range in the interval from one to two billion U.S. dollars.
Figure 24. Three monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) for the period June-August 2012
13 Brief description of hydrological phenomena on rivers in Serbia during the summer 2012 (01st June – 31st August 2012)
Drought and heat waves during June-August 2012 was reflected in the hydrological situation in Serbia. Since mid-June, water levels in most rivers in the country were in decline, and by the end of June and beginning of July to the middle and lower basin water levels have crossed into the domain of low and very low for this time of year. Such hydrological situation remained until the end of August for most of the streams in the country.
During this period, flows have reached a very low value (so-called biological minimum), so that in most rivers unfavorable hydrological conditions prevailed from the standpoint of water quality (high temperature), poor water supply conditions and unfavorable conditions in terms of irrigation and water storage in reservoirs. The worst situation was in the watersheds of the Kolubara, Ljig, Lim, Lugomir, Banat rivers, Beli Timok, Vlasini, Veternica and Jablanica. During August, the Sava and the Danube water levels were below the low-level for navigation, which has greatly affected the navigation making it very difficult.
RHMS of Serbia has given timely notice of extreme hydrological phenomena, and during periods of low water levels all the necessary data, forecasts, warnings and outlooks were regularly submitted to all relevant institutions in the country, the media and general public.
Forest fires
The high temperature and rainfall deficits have caused very bad hydrological situation and the numerous forest fires during the summer.
In 2012, 18,115 fires were recorded in the open air, of which 20 large fires. During the above mentioned fires, 20238 hectares of forest, 8549 hectares of meadows and undergrowth, 260 hectares of orchards and vineyards and1602 hectares of cereal crops were burned. Approximately 700 firefighters were engaged in putting out fires every day.
In the open fires, 16 people died and 79 people were injured.
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