CUMBRIA LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT KEY FINDINGS FOR BARROW NOVEMBER 2010 Professor Frank Peck Ginny Murphy Dr Gail Mulvey Stuart Frank Centre for Regional Economic Development Cumbria Intelligence Observatory Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010 Introduction Recent legislation contained within the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Bill placed a statutory duty on local authorities to undertake a Local Economic Assessment (LEA) from April 2010. The aim of LEAs is to equip local authorities and partners with a common understanding of local economic conditions and economic geography and of the social and environmental factors that impact on economic growth. This assessment should provide both a tool and an evidence base to help target and prioritise limited resources and interventions in order to stimulate economic growth and recovery in Cumbria, particularly in the austere years of limited public funding to come. It will also help contribute to the development of Cumbria’s Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP). This document is part of a suite of documents which together comprise the Cumbria Local Economic Assessment and which arose out of a series of consultation events held across Cumbria. The report is therefore best read in conjunction with the similar reports for Barrow, Carlisle and Eden & South Lakeland and the overarching Cumbria-wide report, which all follow a similar structure. This report uses data from the comprehensive Cumbria Local Economic Assessment Data Analysis Report which can be downloaded at http://www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk/AboutCumbria/economy/cumbriaeconomicassessment.asp and which will be updated on a quarterly basis so that it is always kept up to date with the most recent data releases. The ultimate test of the LEA will be its appropriate use by a range of different organisations. The Cumbria LEA has a potentially large audience of people interested in the field of economic intelligence, from businesses making investment decisions, through commissioners of skills provision to practitioners drafting local policies and strategies. For this reason the document has been structured as in the diagram below. This structure provides different points of access at differing degrees of detail and it is hoped that this will make Cumbria’s LEA as accessible as possible to the wide variety of people who may be interested in its content. Structure of Cumbria’s Local Economic Assessment Cumbria Summary Eden & South Barrow Carlisle West Cumbria Lakeland Key Findings Key Findings Key Findings Key Findings Data Analysis Report People & Communities / Business & Enterprise / Physical Environment & Infrastructure Barrow Key Findings 1 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010 CONTEXT Barrow is the second largest urban settlement in Cumbria Barrow-in-Furness consists of the coastal town of Barrow as well as the small market town of Dalton-in-Furness and the parishes of Askam with Ireleth and Lindal. The area is dominated, however, by the town of Barrow itself which is the second largest urban settlement in Cumbria. The Borough as a whole had an estimated population of 70,900 in 2009. Situated at the south-west extremity of the County, Barrow is geographically isolated from other centres of population and is situated some 35 miles from the M6 motorway. The town has a significant history of industrialisation …. The town grew in the 19th century on the basis of local resources of coal and iron ore, and for much of the 20th century the economy was based on iron and steel-making and shipbuilding. Attempts to diversify the economy during the 1960s and 70s met with some success in attracting other manufacturing employers to the area. During the 1990s, however, the shipyard reduced its workforce dramatically from around 13,000 to fewer than 5,000 and this has had long-lasting effects on the local community and economy. .... and retains its significance today as a centre of shipbuilding Today, however, Barrow is still a significant shipbuilding town and is home to BAe Systems submarine shipyard which currently employs around 5,200 workers. The town has retained its diversified manufacturing and also attracted some new employers in the service sector. Recent attempts to regenerate the town have had positive impacts on infrastructure, employment and enterprise. Despite this, evidence presented here suggests that there are still underlying issues to address arising from the legacy of shipbuilding decline in the 1990s and the impacts of the current economic climate. PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES Barrow has experienced overall loss of population since 1991 .… One consequence of the decline in shipbuilding employment in Barrow in the early 1990s has been the continued net loss of population. In the past two decades, while the population of Cumbria increased by 1.8%, Barrow’s population has declined by 3.3% from 73,300 in 1991 to 70,900 in 2009. This total, however, has remained fairly stable since 2006 and unlike most other parts of Cumbria, the proportion of the population of working age has remained fairly constant since 2001 at around 59%. .… and while recorded unemployment is relatively low A second effect of the decline in shipbuilding employment has been the increase in worklessness and its persistence over time. The severity of this issue is not reflected in the recorded level of unemployment which is based on the number of job-seeker allowance (JSA) claimants. Using this data, Barrow has an unemployment rate of 3.6% (August 2010) which is above the average for Cumbria (2.5%) but below the NW regional figure (4.0%). Barrow Key Findings 2 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010 …. the area has experienced a high level of worklessness The scale of worklessness in Barrow only becomes apparent using measures of “hidden unemployment”. This refers to individuals who are claiming other benefits besides JSA, including Incapacity Benefit / Employment Support Allowance, Lone Parents and a range of other income-related benefits. Recent data shows that there are 7,460 people of working age on Out-of-Work Benefits in Barrow (February 2010). This represents 16.6% of the total working age population in the Borough compared to the Cumbrian average of 11.5% and NW regional figure of 15.7%. Incapacity / Employment Support Allowance accounts for a major share of the total numbers claiming Out-of-Work benefit. The number claiming this benefit has generally reduced over time regionally and in Cumbria partly due to the movement of cohorts of people into retirement. Even so, latest data (February 2010) shows that there are 4,840 claimants on incapacity/ESA benefit in Barrow which accounts for 10.8% of the working age population. This figure remains well above both national (6.7%) and regional averages (8.8%). …. and those on out-of-work benefits are concentrated in particular wards It is also significant to note that the geographical pattern of worklessness is highly concentrated in particular areas. Ward data shows that rates of worklessness are especially high in Central Ward where a third of the working age population claim Out-of-Work Benefits. Worklessness also affects over a quarter of working age population in Barrow Island and Hindpool. In these three Wards in Barrow, therefore, there were 2,600 individuals classed as “workless” in February 2010. Educational attainment is below the Cumbrian and regional averages Addressing worklessness inevitably involves issues related to educational attainment, skills and qualifications. In 2009, 64% of pupils in Barrow achieved five grades A* to C at GCSE which was below the average for Cumbria (66.7%) and the NW region (70.9%). The proportion of pupils achieving three grade As at A level is also comparatively low (7.1% compared to the Cumbrian average of 9% and NW figure of 10.2%). …. but attainment levels vary considerably between areas These averages, however, mask considerable variation in educational attainment within Barrow. In some wards (Hawcoat, Dalton North) the proportion of pupils achieving five grades A* to C at GCSE in 2009 was over 80% while in those wards that also experience high levels of worklessness, the figure is less than 40% (Barrow Island, Central Ward). Skills in the working population are comparable with the Cumbrian average Most recent statistical averages for Barrow imply that skills levels are broadly similar to Cumbria as a whole. Estimates from the ONS Population Survey indicate that the proportion of residents with no qualifications in Barrow during 2009 was 8.5% compared to 10% average for the County as a whole. Likewise, the estimated proportion of people qualified to NVQ3 and above in Barrow (50%) was broadly in line with regional (47%) and national averages (49%). Barrow Key Findings 3 Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010 …. although recent evidence suggests there are skills gaps in high level occupations These apparently favourable comparisons on skills levels need to be understood, however, in the context of the scale of demand for different types of skills in Barrow which is strongly influenced by the recruitment activities of major industrial employers in the area and, prominently, BAe Systems. A recent Employer Survey (2010) commissioned by the Cumbria Intelligence Observatory reveals that nearly half of all respondents in Barrow are currently experiencing skills gaps in high level occupations, significantly higher than the Cumbrian average (31%). So while skills measures appear acceptable in comparison with benchmark areas, there are major challenges in meeting the demands of the manufacturing base in Barrow that is critical to the local economy. BUSINESS AND ENTERPRISE There has been recent expansion of employment in manufacturing in Barrow Recent trends show that, against the national trend, employment in manufacturing has grown in Barrow between 2003 and 2008 by 6.7%. Despite the effects of long-term decline in this sector, industrial employers in Barrow still accounted directly for 23% of total employment in the Borough in 2008.