D3.4 Report on Assessed Risk and Impacts in All EU Case
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D3.4 Report Report on assessed risk and impacts in all EU case study areas © 2017 PEARL This project has received funding from the European Union´s Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under Grant Agreement No 603663 for the research project PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastal regions). All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher. The deliverable D3.4 reflects only the author’s views and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained. 2 D3.4 Report Report on assessed risk and impacts in all EU case study areas Dissemination level (select one): PU = Public PP = Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services). 3 Document Information Project Number 603663 Acronym PEARL Full Title Preparing for Extreme and Rare events in coastaL regions Project URL http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/ Document URL EU Project Officer Denis Peter Report on assessed risk and impacts in all Deliverable Number D 3.4 Title EU case study areas Holistic Risk Work Package Number WP3 Title Assessment Date of Delivery Contractual 01.06.2017 Actual 04.03.2017 Status version 1.0 final □ Nature report X Dissemination level public X Abstract (for This report describes the work conducted in the EU case studies dissemination, 100 and some international case study areas of PEARL to determine words) the level of risk due to extreme events occurred in the past. Each chapter describe the data used to conduct the analysis of hazard and vulnerability assessment. For vulnerability analysis, PEARL has developed a flexible methodology to be able to be applied in a wide variety of cases with different levels of information. Finally each chapter presents a description about the methods used to aggregate the information and produce risk maps. Keywords Hazard assessment, Vulnerability assessment, Impacts, Risk Version Log Issue Date Rev. No. Author Change Approved by 4 Disclaimer The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant agreement n° 603663 for the research project PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions). The deliverable 3.4 reflects only the authors' views and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained herein. 5 Summary This report describes the work conducted in the EU case studies and some international case study areas of PEARL to determine the level of risk due to extreme events occurred in the past. Each chapter describe the data used to conduct the analysis of hazard and vulnerability assessment. For vulnerability analysis, PEARL has developed a flexible methodology to be able to be applied in a wide variety of cases with different levels of information. Finally each chapter presents a description about the methods used to aggregate the information and produce risk maps. This report is structured in the following way: each PEARL partner responsible for the case study area have documented the work that has been conducted so far in relation to the methods and tools used to estimate Hazards, Vulnerabilities and Risk. Chapters 2- 10 presents the description of each case study area. 6 Contenido 1 INTRODUCTION 22 2 CASE STUDY MARBELLA 23 2.1 Description of the study area 23 2.1.1 Main geomorphologic, social and economic features 23 2.1.2 Main challenges that affect the case study 24 2.2 Data collection and analysis for hazard assessment 24 2.2.1 Rainfall data sources 24 2.2.2 Rainfall data elaboration 25 2.2.3 Data collection and calibration 27 2.2.4 Hazard assessment 30 2.3 Data collection and analysis for vulnerability assessment 32 2.4 Risk assessment 34 2.5 How risk analysis benefit local stakeholders 36 2.6 References 38 3 CASE STUDY GENOVA 39 3.1 Description of the study area 39 3.2 Data collection and analysis for hazard assessment 41 3.2.1 Collected data for hazard assessment 41 3.2.2 Analysis of data for hazard assessment 41 3.3 Data collection and analysis for vulnerability assessment 55 3.3.1 Data collection for vulnerability assessment 55 3.3.2 Methodology applied to the vulnerabity assessment 56 3.4 Risk assessment 59 3.5 How risk analysis benefit local stakeholders 63 4 CASE STUDY HAMBURG, ELBE ESTUARY 64 4.1 Introduction 64 4.2 Description of the study area 65 4.3 Data collection and analysis for hazard assessment 65 4.4 Data collection and analysis for vulnerabiltiy assessment 68 4.5 Risk assessment 71 4.5.1 The district of Wilhelmsburg 71 4.5.2 Assessment of the temporal development of the flood risk (2010- 2016) 72 4.6 How risk analysis benefit local stakeholder 74 4.7 Influence of adaption measures on hazards and consequently on the risks 74 4.8 Summary and Outlook 77 4.9 References 78 5 GREVE CASE STUDY 79 5.1 Data collection and analysis 81 7 5.2 Urban coastal flood hazards 84 5.3 Flood damages and risks 88 5.4 Summary 95 5.5 References 95 6 RETHYMNO CASE STUDY, CRETE 98 6.1 Description of the study area 98 6.2 Data collection and analysis for hazard asssessment 100 6.2.1 Data collection 101 6.2.2 Integrated modelling framework 102 6.3 Data collection and analysis for vulnerability asssessment 113 6.4 Risk assessment 117 6.5 How risk analysis benefit local stakeholders 120 6.6 References 122 ANNEX 1 OF RETHYMNO CASE STUDY 124 ANNEX 2 OF RETHYMNO CASE STUDY 127 7 CASE STUDY CHANTELLAILON-PLAGE, FRANCE 1 7.1 Description of the study area 1 7.2 Data collection and analysis for hazard asssessment 2 7.3 Data collection and analysis for vulnerability asssessment 10 7.4 Risk assessment 14 7.5 How risk analysis benefit local stakeholders 20 8 CASE STUDY TAIWAN 21 8.1 Description of the study area 21 8.2 Data collection and analysis for hazard assessment 22 8.2.1 Data 22 8.2.2 Extreme event analysis 24 8.2.3 Methodology 25 8.2.4 Model calibration and validation 25 8.2.5 Flood Inundation Maps 26 8.3 Data collection and analysis for vulnerability assessment 27 8.4 Risk assessment 28 8.5 How risk analysis benefit local stakeholders 30 9 CASE STUDY – ST MAARTEN 31 9.1 Description of the study area 31 9.1.1 Location, social and economic features 31 9.1.2 Main challenges that affect the case study 31 9.2 Data collection and analysis for hazard assessment 32 9.2.1 Coastal flooding data sources 32 9.2.2 Inland Flooding data sources 34 Rainfall analysis 35 9.2.3 Flood Hazard Assessment 38 8 9.2.4 Vulnerability analysis 39 9.2.5 Flood risk analysis 40 9.2.6 Holistic Flood risk assessment 41 10 CASE STUDY AYUTTAHAYA, THAILAND 52 10.1 Description of the study area 52 10.1.1 Location, social and economic features 52 10.1.2 Main challenges that affect the case study 53 10.2 Hazard Modelling and Analysis 56 10.2.1 Data availability and sources 56 10.3 Vulnerability Data and Analysis 62 10.3.1 Physical dimension 63 10.3.2 Social dimension 63 10.3.3 Economic dimension 64 10.3.4 Cultural dimension 65 10.3.5 Vulnerability Assessment 65 10.4 Flood Risk Assessment 68 10.4.1 Risk Quantification 69 10.4.2 Risk perception 70 10.4.3 Risk Communication 71 10.5 Assessment of scenarios 73 10.5.1 Urbanization and land use changes in Ayutthaya 74 10.5.2 Flood simulations 75 9 List of figures Figure 2-1. Marbella map and location. ................................................................................23 Figure 2-2. IDF Curves – Sherman per each return period studied. .....................................25 Figure 2-3. Projected storms intensities for 10 and 100 years return period. ........................26 Figure 2-4. Comparison between IDFs obtained through GEV distribution and Sherman method ..........................................................................................................................27 Figure 2-5. DTM and main basins affecting Marbella case study (left). Location of the sensors within the sewer network (right). .......................................................................27 Figure 2-6. Results (event 25/11/2016) for Represa’s channel. Upstream (left) and downstream (right) Huelo’s river junction. ......................................................................28 Figure 2-7. Results (event 25/11/2016) for Represa’s channel. Upstream (left) and downstream (right) Huelo’s river junction. ......................................................................29 Figure 2-8. Results (event 14/12/2016) for Represa’s channel. Upstream (left) and downstream (right) Huelo’s river junction. ......................................................................29 Figure 2-9. Calibration results for Navedul Avenue. Flow depths provided for the model for the event of 25 November 2016 were compared to images recordered during this event. On the right, it is possible to observe the water depth map in the cells arround Navedul Avenue. On the left, in photo from a local newspaper where can be observed water depths just above the kerb. ...........................................................................................30 Figure 2-10. Calibration results for Navedul Avenue. Flow depths provided for the model for the event of 04 December 2016 were compared to images recordered during this event. On the right, it is possible to observe the water depth map in the cells arround Navedul Avenue. On the left, in photo from a local newspaper where can be observed runoff over the roadway and overflow from the sewer network.