Political Fences & Bad Neighbors North Korea Policy Making in Japan & Implications for the United States June 2006 A Project Report by The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis James L. Schoff Political Fences and Bad Neighbors: North Korea Policy Making in Japan and Implications for the United States June 2006 A Project Report by: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis 675 Massachusetts Avenue 1725 DeSales Street, NW 10th Floor Suite 402 Cambridge, MA 02139 Washington, DC 20036 Telephone: (617) 492-2116 Telephone: (202) 463-7942 Fax: (617) 492-8242 Fax: (202) 785-2785 Email:
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[email protected] http://www.ifpa.org/ James L. Schoff Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies For further information, please contact: Cambridge, Mass., IFPA Office Mr. James L. Schoff
[email protected] 617-492-2116 Copyright©2006 The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc. Contents Introduction and Acknowledgements v Executive Summary vii North Korea Policy Making in Japan, Then and Now 1 Top-down Policy Making and the 2002 Koizumi-Kim Summit 3 Japan-DPRK Relations since the 2002 Koizumi-Kim Summit: Dialogue vs. Pressure 5 Pressure Groups, Pundits, and the Public 5 Yamasaki’s Initiative and Fukuda’s Isolation 8 Changes in the Government’s North Korea Policy-Making Processes 10 Regional and National Trends Affecting the North Korean Issue for Japan 16 Trade and the Sanctions Card 17 Regional Security Trends 18 Six-Party Talks, Abduction Diplomacy, and the Nationalism Factor 21 The Role of Public Opinion 23 North Korea Policy Making in Post-Koizumi