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A Comparative Analysis of Future Space Orbital Transportation Systems Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2018-06 A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUTURE SPACE ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Long, Bryan P. Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/59710 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUTURE SPACE ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS by Bryan P. Long June 2018 Thesis Advisor: Marcello Romano Co-Advisors: Mark M. Rhoades Peter Swan Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) June 2018 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUTURE SPACE ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS 6. AUTHOR(S) Bryan P. Long 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis conducts a comparative analysis of future Orbital Transportation Systems (OTS). Near future rocket advancements are compared to future capabilities of a well-documented non–rocket based OTS, the space elevator transportation system. Technical and geopolitical impacts of both systems to future space exploration and the space industry are analyzed. Recent multiple new entrants into the space rocket industry are developing larger payload capacity rockets and driving down the cost per kg to orbit. These advances will lead to major improvements in the way spacecraft and satellite engineers will design their future systems with fewer payload constraints and lower total mission cost constraints. While beneficial, these advancements in rockets could have an adverse effect on the continuing efforts to develop alternate OTSs, such as the space elevator, by reducing the research and design (R&D) funding available for those systems. A space elevator offers the promise of consistent daily to-orbit transportation with a very large payload capacity at an extremely inexpensive cost. For these reasons, the space elevator system is worth the continued R&D investment to address major technical challenges in its continued development. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF space elevator, military satellite community, MILSATCOM, carbon nanotube PAGES 101 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUTURE SPACE ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Bryan P. Long Civilian, Department of the Navy B.S., University of Missouri-Rolla, 1998 M.S.E.E., Washington University, St. Louis, 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2018 Approved by: Marcello Romano Advisor Mark M. Rhoades Co-Advisor Peter Swan, International Space Elevator Consortium Co-Advisor Ronald E. Giachetti Chair, Department of Systems Engineering iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis conducts a comparative analysis of future Orbital Transportation Systems (OTS). Near future rocket advancements are compared to future capabilities of a well-documented non–rocket based OTS, the space elevator transportation system. Technical and geopolitical impacts of both systems to future space exploration and the space industry are analyzed. Recent multiple new entrants into the space rocket industry are developing larger payload capacity rockets and driving down the cost per kg to orbit. These advances will lead to major improvements in the way spacecraft and satellite engineers will design their future systems with fewer payload constraints and lower total mission cost constraints. While beneficial, these advancements in rockets could have an adverse effect on the continuing efforts to develop alternate OTSs, such as the space elevator, by reducing the research and design (R&D) funding available for those systems. A space elevator offers the promise of consistent daily to-orbit transportation with a very large payload capacity at an extremely inexpensive cost. For these reasons, the space elevator system is worth the continued R&D investment to address major technical challenges in its continued development. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. THESIS OBJECTIVES .............................................................................1 B. THESIS METHODOLOGY .....................................................................2 C. BENEFITS OF THE STUDY ...................................................................2 D. THESIS ROADMAP .................................................................................3 II. DEVELOPING PROBLEM STATEMENT .......................................................5 A. LITERATURE RESEARCH ....................................................................5 B. PROBLEM STATEMENT DEVELOPMENT .......................................7 C. NOMINATE MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS .............................................8 D. DEFINE THE PROBLEM OR OPPORTUNITY SPACE ....................9 E. CHARACTERIZE THE SOLUTION SPACE .......................................9 F. IDENTIFYING ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ................................................................10 G. OBJECTIVES HIERARCHY DECOMPOSITION ............................11 H. CHAPTER SUMMARY ..........................................................................13 III. ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ...................................................15 A. ROCKET-BASED TRANSPORT SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE .........................................................15 B. NON-ROCKET ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ..........19 C. SPACE ELEVATOR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE .....................................................................20 1. Current State of Space Elevator Research ................................22 2. Most Recent Space Elevator System Architecture ...................24 D. CHAPTER SUMMARY ..........................................................................28 IV. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ROCKETS TO THE SPACE ELEVATOR .........................................................................................................29 A. FUTURE PROJECTED TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES OF SPACE ELEVATOR VERSUS ROCKETS: CARGO CAPACITY AND COST .........................................................................29 B. HEAVY MISSION PAYLOAD CAPABILITY COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ................................................................33 C. FUTURE PROJECTED TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES OF SPACE ELEVATOR VERSUS ROCKETS: ALL OTHER MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE ......................................................37 D. TECHNICAL HURDLES AND RISKS ................................................38 vii 1. Technical Hurdles and Risks Associated with Rocket- based Transportation Systems ....................................................39 2. Technical Hurdles and Risks Associated with Space Elevator .........................................................................................40 E. CHAPTER SUMMARY ..........................................................................45 V. TECHNICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF ADVANCES IN ORBITAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ......................47 A. TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS ............................................................47 B. GEOPOLITICS FURTHERING COMMERCIALIZATION OF ROCKET-BASED SYSTEMS ................................................................49 C. GEOPOLITICAL IMPACTS OF A SPACE ELEVATOR .................50 VI. CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND FURTHER RESEARCH .........................................................................................................53 A. CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................53
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