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Global Equity Research the Search for Alpha Continues

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Global Equity Research the Search for Alpha Continues Global Alternative Investment Strategies September 2001 Global The Search for Alpha Continues Equity Research www.ubswarburg.com/researchweb In addition to the UBS Warburg web site our research products are available over third-party systems provided or serviced by: Bloomberg, First Call, I/B/E/S, IFIS, Multex, QUICK and Reuters UBS Warburg is a business group of UBS AG Alexander M Ineichen CFA Do Fund of Hedge Funds Managers Add Value? +44-20-7568 4944 [email protected] Search for Alpha Continues September 2001 Contents page Executive Summary...................................................................................... 3 Overview and Structure................................................................................. 4 Investment Case for Investing in Hedge Funds Revisited ................................ 7 — New Paradigm or Bubble? ................................................................... 7 — Industry Update ................................................................................ 18 — Performance Update ......................................................................... 24 An Introduction to Funds of Hedge Funds..................................................... 26 — Introduction....................................................................................... 26 — Fund of Funds Industry Characteristics............................................... 28 Advantages and Disadvantages of Investing in Funds of Funds..................... 37 — Advantages ...................................................................................... 37 — Disadvantages .................................................................................. 43 Investment Process of Fund of Funds Manager ............................................ 48 — Portfolio Mandate and Investment Process ......................................... 48 — Manager Selection and Monitoring ..................................................... 49 — Portfolio Selection and Monitoring ...................................................... 51 The Edge................................................................................................... 60 — Investment Philosophy of Fund of Funds Manager .............................. 60 — Risk Management Experience............................................................ 65 — Motivation and Other Intangibles........................................................ 66 — Manager Selection and Access .......................................................... 72 — Risk and Performance Monitoring....................................................... 73 Performance of Funds of Funds................................................................... 81 Closing Remarks........................................................................................ 91 Appendix.................................................................................................... 92 — Performance Attribution Analysis........................................................ 92 Selection of Essays .................................................................................. 100 — Who’s Long?................................................................................... 100 — Risks of Investing in Hedge Funds Revisited..................................... 111 — Risk Illusion.................................................................................... 115 — Guatemalan Dentists....................................................................... 118 — Avoiding Negative Compounding...................................................... 119 References............................................................................................... 125 — Glossary......................................................................................... 125 — Bibliography.................................................................................... 131 2 UBS Warburg Search for Alpha Continues September 2001 Executive Summary I To some, hedge fund investing is a bubble, to others absolute return strategies is a New Paradigm in asset management. Reality is probably somewhere in between. I Expectations with respect to future hedge fund returns are probably too high. An adjustment of expectations back towards reality is desirable. Such an adjustment could strengthen the business case for fund of funds managers. If the alpha in the hedge fund universe can only be unlocked through market participants with a competitive advantage – but not by simply being long or random selection – then the case for funds of funds is strengthened. I Alpha-generating strategies are normally skill-based strategies. If the flexibility of the manager is reduced to zero, the ex-ante alpha is zero as a result. However, as with every other industry, asset management as well as the hedge fund industry will most likely transform over time. A possible future scenario is that those asset managers with a competitive advantage operating in an inefficient market will be offering skill-based strategies. I The dispersion of returns with skill-based strategies is much higher than with market-based strategies. A wide dispersion means that the worst performing will do much worse than the best performing. To an investor with no edge, this is a risk. To an active investor with a competitive advantage, this is an opportunity. I An active long-only strategy stems from a time where markets were less efficient than today and there were few or no alternatives to get exposure to a market in order to diversify systematic risk. It also stems from a time where there were fewer investment style opportunities and the degree of complexity in financial instruments was lower. We believe that the market is migrating to the view that it does not make much sense to attempt to get an information advantage in an informationally efficient market. If this is the case, flows to specialists adopting an active approach in markets where there is no passive alternative and information is not efficiently disseminated might continue to flourish. Given that fund of hedge funds managers operate in a market as inefficient and opaque as the hedge fund industry, we believe they have a strong value proposition. We believe an investor investing in a fund of funds should search for the following attributes when investing in a manager selecting hedge funds. The manager should: I understand all hedge fund strategies, I understand all instruments used by hedge funds, I emphasise qualitative aspects relative to quantitative variables, I be in the ‘information loop’ and have extensive proprietary data, I be of the highest integrity, as there is little regulation or reputational risk of large corporates to assist investors. I Ideally, the interests of the managers are aligned with those of their investors. 3 UBS Warburg Search for Alpha Continues September 2001 Overview and Structure “If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.” Derek Bok (former Harvard President) Overview All hedge funds are not created equal. A poorly chosen portfolio of hedge funds can produce disappointing results. All fund of funds managers are not created equal, either. A poor choice of fund of funds managers can yield disappointing results. This report is designed to help institutional investors select fund of funds managers. Implementation follows Given the current hype surrounding investing in hedge funds, we assume that most strategic orientation investors by now will agree that investing in hedge funds can make sense when viewed not in isolation but in a portfolio context.1 The next step, therefore, is implementation. Chart 1 shows the dispersion of quarterly returns from a selection of funds of funds. At each point in time, the chart shows the range of outcomes that funds of funds experienced. We believe the chart demonstrates the importance of evaluating individual fund of funds managers. Chart 1: Dispersion of Fund of Funds Returns (1986-2000, Quarterly Returns) 100 80 60 40 % 20 0 -20 Quarterly return ( -40 -60 -80 -100 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: Quellos Data used for graph is discussed on page 81. The dispersion of returns The dispersion of returns of funds of funds has increased – primarily on the among fund of hedge funds downside. This could be function of a widening gap between talented and less managers has been talented fund of funds managers. It probably also is a function of an increased increasing number of fund of funds managers having a bias towards investing in hedge funds with a long bias towards technology. In 1999 funds of funds suddenly appeared that invested solely in technology or internet-related hedge funds. Some of these funds of funds probably shared a similar faith as did the Nasdaq. In other words, the 1 If someone does not agree that Tiger Woods or Michael Schumacher are the best of their generation in their fields (and potentially beyond) – he or she probably never will. 4 UBS Warburg Search for Alpha Continues September 2001 increase in dispersion could be either a longer-term trend due to erosion of skill or an anomaly associated with the bursting of the internet bubble or a combination of both. Target audience of this This report is targeted at institutional investors who are in the process of investing report are investors in hedge funds and are evaluating fund of funds managers. This report provides investing in hedge funds some insight into questions such as: I Do fund of funds managers
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