PROJECTIONS FOR 2010 AND 2020

In order to develop future scenarios for and Cerro Plano, we developed a process to determine the number of structures we had to include in these scenarios and how many people were likely to live in the zone.

PROJECTIONS FOR NUMBER OF HOUSES

We used the most accurate data we had available to us to estimate the projected number of households in the future i.e., the number of structures in Monteverde and Cerro Plano over the years using the maps we had prepared.

We had a map of Monteverde from 1951 in addition to maps of the areas from 1986, and 1992; we had also created a 2001 map of the areas by walking through the zone and updating the 1992 map. From this new map we got a number of houses in each area: 142 for Monteverde and 141 for Cerro Plano.

Table 1 shows the number of houses in the past and projected into the future, and Figure 1 charts the growth.

Table 1. Past, Present and Projected Number of Houses based on House Counts

1960 1986 1992 2001 2010 2020 Monteverde 22 70 84 142 232 331

Cerro Plano No Data 31 87 141 230 329

Total No Data 101 171 283 462 660 Figure 1.

Past, Present and Projected Number of Houses based on House Counts

350 331 329

300 Monteverde

Cerro Plano 250 232 230

200

150 142 141 Population

100 84 87 70

50 31 22

0 1960 1986 1992 2001 2010 2020 Year

POPULATION

The project process for population projection was difficult because of the inadequacy and inconsistency of available data. We explored information from the Clinic and from the National Institute of Statistics and Census. We chose not to use either of these except as reference because the Clinic Data has conflicting numbers for population and we therefore are not sure that it is reliable. The data available from the Census is for a large area, District 9, which includes a much broader area than our focus of Monteverde and Cerro Plano. (See Appendix B for details on data sources)

Our population estimations use A y A's average of six people per home. We multiplied our house structure figure by six to get population projections. This gave us an estimate of the current population of both areas: Cerro Plano was estimated to have 846 inhabitants and Monteverde 852 inhabitants.

From the 1992 and 2001 numbers, we derived an average annual growth percent. This was done through the following formula:

(Difference in population ÷ Population of earliest year) ÷ Number of years between dates

From the formula, it was determined that the average annual growth for Monteverde was 7.7% and for Cerro Plano it was 6.9% over those nine years (1992-2001). We decided to average out the growth percentages to an even 7%. Armed with this percent we projected the population for the year 2010 and 2020 through the following formula: (Current population x Average annual growth percent x Number of years to projection) + Current Population

The results of the projection are shown in the following table and figure:

Table 2. Population Data and Projections based on House Counts and Six People Per Household

1960 1986 1992 2001 2010 2020

Monteverde 132 420 504 852 1392 1986

Cerro Plano No Data 186 522 846 1380 1974

Total No Data 606 1026 1698 2772 3960

Figure 2.

Population Data and Projections based on House Counts and Six People Per Household

2500

Monteverde 1986 1974 2000 Cerro Plano

1500 1392 1380

Population 1000 852 846

504 522 500 420

186 132

0 1960 1986 1992 2001 2010 2020 Year

The average annual growth of the Monteverde District (No.9) from the 1984 and 2000 census information was derived at 7.6%. Defining the boundaries of the district proved to be difficult, but we got an idea that it encompasses a larger area including Santa Elena. This reassured us that our projections were fairly accurate. The following table and graph depict the data gathered from INEC and our projections. The INEC estimated the population of the district in the years between the censuses. They seemed to be underestimating the growth because there is such a large jump in the population between the estimated 1999 data and the 2000 census. Because of the unreliability of this projected data, our 2010 and 2020 projections only use the measured census data.

Table 3. Population of District No.9 (Monteverde) of the Canton Central,

1984 1985 1986 1992 1999 2000 2010 2020 INEC INEC INEC INEC Source Census Census Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Population in 1467 1575 1624 2012 2363 3258 5744 8230 District No.9

Figure 3.

Population of District No.9 (Monteverde) of the Canton Central, Puntarenas, 9000 8230 8000

7000

6000 5744

5000

4000

Population 3258 3000 2012 2000 1467

1000

0 1984 1992 2000 2010 2020 Census Projected Census l------Projected------l by INEC Year

PROJECTION OF COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES

In addition to the housing and population projections, we projected the growth of a number of services to better portray the future of the zone. These include hotels, restaurants, schools, supermarkets, and clinics. The historic data are as follows, but this data was handled differently here; we will go into the details of each later in this report.

Table 4. Historical Data

Monteverde Land Use Study

Time Period Houses Hotels Businesses Institutions Agriculture Other Total

1951-60 22 0 6 2 0 0 30

1984-87 70 2 6 3 0 3 84

1992 84 16 27 3 6 0 136

2001 142 22 25 7 25 0 221

Cerro Plano Land Use Study

1984-86 31 4 2 0 0 0 37

1992 87 28 12 7 0 2 136

2001 141 49 37 14 0 2 243

Hotels

The projection for the number of hotels in years 2010 and 2020 was based on the current number of hotels in the area of Monteverde and Cerro Plano. The count resulted in 14 hotels in 2001. Through talking with the general manager of the Montaña Monteverde Hotel, Ulises Rodríguez, we learned that hotels in the area grew at an average of seven rooms per hotel per year. We used this figure to project the growth of hotels by 2010 and 2020 using the following formula:

Current number of hotels x Average room growth per year per hotel x Number of years to projection

The following table shows the results figures:

Table 5. Extra Number of beds in the Monteverde and Cerro Plano Area by 2010 and 2020

Year 2010 2020

Number of Extra Beds 756 1596

To put these numbers in perspective, the Establo Hotel will have a total of 300 beds when it is finished. This means that by the year 2020, five more Establo Hotels worth of beds will be built in the Cerro Plano and Monteverde area.

Restaurants

The projection of the number of restaurants in years 2010 and 2020 was based on the number of restaurants in the area of Monteverde and Cerro Plano in 1992 and 2001. The counts resulted in seven restaurants in 1992, and 12 restaurants in 2001. This was an average growth in restaurants of 8% per year. Using this percent we projected five more restaurants by 2010 and ten more by 2020. The following table shows these figures:

Table 6. Total number of restaurants in Monteverde and Cerro Plano by 2010 and 2020

1992 2001 2010 2020 Total Number of 7 12 17 22 Restaurants

Schools

The current percentage of the population that is of school age was based on the clinic data. These reports had broken the population numbers into age categories. The 1999 clinic study showed zero to fourteen-year olds composing 34.4% of the population. The 2000 showed this group composing 35.9% of the population. The Central-American Population Program run by the in cooperation with INEC had a study on the Internet (http://populi.eest.ucr.ac.cr ) that estimated the 2000 population distribution from 1995 data. They had a breakdown of the population by age, and the youngest age group composed 31.6% of the population. This and the other group’s percentages were comparable to the clinic studies, so we were reassured that they were accurate enough for our purposes. The following table summarizes all this information:

Table 7. Percent of Population of Three Age Groups According to Three Sources

1999 Clinic Study Age Groups 0-14 15-59 60+

Percent of Population 34.4 58 7.6

2000 Clinic Study Age Groups 0-14 15-59 60+

Percent of Population 35.9 60.3 3.8

National Distribution from UCR and INEC Study Age Groups 0-14 15-59 60+

Percent of Population 31.6 61 7.3

Knowing that the data was reliable, we determined the population percent of the four to six-year- olds (kindergarten age) of the 2000 study to be 8.5% of the population and the seven to fourteen- year-olds to be 18.1%. This translated to 236 and 502 children respectively in 2010, and 337 and 717 by 2020.

The additional classroom area needed for the year 2010 and 2020 were estimated using data from a 1999 Sustainable Futures project that proposed a program for build-out of the Creative Learning Center in Cerro Plano. This project estimated the space needed for a kindergarten student at 2 m 2, and for a 1-12 grader at 1.5 m 2. It also estimated the maximum number of kindergarten students at 60, and the maximum number of students from first to twelfth grade to 210 once the school is all built.

To know the actual amount of classroom area needed to accommodate these children we needed to subtract the children that would fill the current available vacancies in the area schools. There are four schools in the Cerro Plano and Monteverde areas: The Friend’s School, which has no space as it has capped its enrollment, the Cerro Plano Public School, which is also full, the Seventh-Day Adventist School and the Creative Learning Center. We called the latter two and found out their enrollment space. The Adventist School had room for one more kindergarten child and six more in the higher grades. The Creative Learning Center had enrolled 23 kindergarten children and 163 children in the other grades. Therefore, according to the earlier Sustainable Futures project when it is built-out it will be able to accommodate for 43 more kindergarten children and 47 more children of higher grades. After subtracting these children from the projected populations and multiplying by their appropriate area per student ratio, we determined that by the year 2010, 1057.5 m2 of classroom space will be needed, and by the year 2020, 1582 m2 of classroom space will be needed to accommodate the projected number of children. To put these numbers in perspective, the Creative Learning Center will have a total classroom area of 435 m 2 when it is all finished. This information is summarized in the following table.

Table 8. Projected Number of Children and Classroom Area

Total Number of Children Age 2001 2010 2020 4-6 145 236 337

7-14 308 502 717 Total Number of Children To Be Accommodated 4-6 0 192 293

7-14 0 449 664 Classroom Area Needed ( m2) Area 0 1057.5 1582

Supermarkets

We were informed that the Coop supermarket in Monteverde had plans to expand. So we included this into our scenarios, and we decided that Cerro Plano would also need a supermarket by 2020.

Clinics

We learned that a new clinic is being built in Santa Elena that is projected to support the population of the zone for twenty years; therefore, we decided not to add any these services to our scenarios.

APPENDIX B

Stewart Dallas and Felipe Oltremari researched studies that may show population growth patterns in the area of Monteverde. Our intention was to project the population growth of the area in the coming years.

Diagnostico Situacional de Salud – Área de Salud de Monteverde 1994 Local Heath Diagnostics – Monteverde Health Area 1994

The 1994 study by the clinic of Monteverde estimated the inhabitants of the area from the clinic registration records. Cuadro #1 in the study estimates the habitants of Santa Elena at 2,500, of Cerro Plano 710, and of Monteverde 700. (Dallas and Oltremari)

Análisis Situacional y Diagnostico de Salud – Clínica de Monteverde 1995 Local Analysis and Health Diagnostics – Monteverde Clinic 1995

In 1995, the clinic reported the Santa Elena population in page 4 at 1,724 people. Although the report from the year before estimated 776 more people. The Cerro Plano population was estimated at 740 people and the Monteverde population at 720 people. These latter estimates seemed to be more plausible. Nevertheless, the Santa Elena estimates made us doubt the credibility of the reports. (Dallas and Oltremari)

Análisis Situacional y Diagnostico de Salud – Clínica de Monteverde 1999, 2000 Local Analysis and Health Diagnostics – Monteverde Clinic 1999, 2000

This third study was also from the Monteverde clinic. Cuadro No.2 estimated the population of Santa Elena at an even lower 1, 339 inhabitants, but the Cerro Plano and Monteverde estimates seemed to be credible at 832 and 824 inhabitants respectively. The 2000 study had the same kind of information. (Dallas and Oltremari)

A y A (Acueductos y Alcantarillas) Estudio de Evaluación - Acueducto de Monteverde A y A – Aqueducts and Sewers Evaluation Study – Monteverde Aqueduct June 2000

This study estimated the population of part of Monteverde (from the river to the reserve) by counting the number of households connected to the drinking water system and multiplying it by the average number of habitants in each home. Likewise, it also counted hotels as several households because of their water consumption levels. For our purposes we reduced the hotels to represent one home. After adjusting this figure, the population of that part of the Monteverde was estimated at 414 people. They also projected that in 20 years (2020) the population would double to 828 people. (Dallas and Oltremari)

A y A (Acueductos y Alcantarillas) Estadísticas A y A – Aqueducts and Sewers Data 1998

A y A has figures for the number of households for the other sections of the area in 1998. These are Cañitas, Santa Elena including the cemetery, and the Cerro Plano with the Los Llanos area. Their household figures for the three areas are 309, 141and 445 inhabitants respectively. (Dallas and Oltremari)

A y A also projected the number of households for the years 2008 and 2018. The projected year 2008 figures are 426, 268 and 655 inhabitants, and the year 2018 projections are 618, 388, and 956 inhabitants. Although the inhabitants of the area could not be projected from the household water connections because of lack of information, the projections helped us get an idea of their percent growth per year. (Dallas)

INEC – Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos INEC – National Institute of Statistics and Censuses

The INEC (258-0033) in San José reports that the Monteverde area is district No.9 of the Puntarenas Cantón (01) or Cantón Central of the Puntarenas Province of Costa Rica. The first information assistant at the INEC was reluctant to give us much information over the phone, but she did release us the population numbers for the district for the years 1999 (2363 people) and 2000 (3258 people). (Oltremari)

The population figures for the district were as follows for the years 1984 (1467 people), 1985 (1575 people), 1986 (1624 people), and 1992 (2012 people). The assistant also informed us that the years 1984 and 2000 were census years and that the other years were projected. This explained the sudden jump in population from the years 1999 to 2000. (Dallas)