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Ghana Wholesale Power Reliability Assessment 2010

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Ghana Wholesale Power Reliability Assessment 2010 Power Systems Energy Consulting (PSEC) This report was produced by Power Systems Energy Consulting (PSEC) in collaboration with Ghana Grid Company Limited (GRIDCo). PSEC is responsible for the final content of this report, unless otherwise cited. © 2010 Power Systems Energy Consulting (PSEC) Do not reproduce or distribute without the prior written permission of Power Systems Energy Consulting. Ghana Power Reliability Report 2010 i Privileged and Confidential " " !! " !" # !# ' # ) "! ) "" !! "# !$ "$ !& "% !& $ ") #! !) #" " ! "& ## " ! " !( "( #$ # #% #" #& ## % $& $! #% $" #' $# $# $$ " ! $' $% " ! " !( $( $& %! $' %" & && %! %% %" %% %# %' %$ %) %% & %& &! %' && %( &( ' ') &! &) &" '" ( (& '! '% '" '' '# (! '$ (# Ghana Power Reliability Report 2010 ii Privileged and Confidential Ghana Power Reliability Report 2010 iii Privileged and Confidential Figure 1.1 – Ghana’s Power Sector..........................................................................................................2 Figure 2.1 - Basic Power Network............................................................................................................9 Figure 2.2 - Electricity distribution zones for ECG (yellow) and NED (red).............................................10 Figure 2.3 - Peak Demand of Major Load Centres By Service Provider ................................................12 Figure 2.4 – A Typical 24-Hour Demand Profile (January 2010).............................................................14 Figure 2.5 - Generation Resources in Ghana .........................................................................................15 Figure 2.6 - Ghana's Power Transmission Network ...............................................................................17 Figure 3.1 - Actual Peak Demand: 2000 to 2009 ...................................................................................20 Figure 3.2 - Actual Energy Demand: 2000 to 2009 ................................................................................20 Figure 3.3 - Cumulative Peak Demand and Energy Demand Growth: 2000-2009.................................21 Figure 3.4 - Peak Demand by Service Provider: 2000 and 2009 ...........................................................21 Figure 3.5 - Normalized GDP, Peak Demand, and Energy: 2000-2008 .................................................22 Figure 3.6 - Peak Demand and Energy Growth for Urban Areas: 2000 to 2009 ....................................23 Figure 3.7 - Demand and Energy Consumption By Sector: 2001 ..........................................................24 Figure 3.8 - VALCO Demand and Energy Consumption: 2000 - 2009...................................................25 Figure 3.9 - Peak Demand and Energy Consumption Growth By Sector: 2010 ....................................27 Figure 3.10 - Effect of VALCO Operations on 2010 Peak Demand and Energy Demand......................27 Figure 3.11 - Forecasted Peak Demand: 2009 to 2018 .........................................................................29 Figure 3.12 - Forecasted Energy Demand: 2009 to 2018 ......................................................................29 Figure 3.13 - Forecasted Cumulative Growth Rates By Sector: 2009-2018..........................................30 Figure 3.14 - Effect of Demand Side Management Programs ...............................................................31 Figure 4.1 – An Example of Generation Facility Operating Modes.........................................................36 Figure 4.2 - Akosombo Water Level (2000 to 2009) ...............................................................................40 Figure 4.3 - Reserve Margin Based on Unforced Capacity: 2000 to 2009.............................................41 Figure 4.4 - Unforced Capacity and Demand: 2000-2009 .....................................................................42 Figure 4.5 - Determining an Adequate Reserve Margin .........................................................................43 Figure 4.6 – Reserve Margin Outlook With New Generation Capacity Additions: 2010 to 2018 ...........48 Figure 4.7 - Projected Reserve Margin, Nominal Case: 2010-2018.......................................................49 Figure 4.8 - Reserve Margin Fuel Risk Contingency Scenarios: 2010 to 2018 ......................................50 Figure 4.9 - Reserve Margin Supply and Demand Contingency Scenarios: 2010 to 2018....................51 Figure 5.1 - Losses in Transmission and Distribution ............................................................................61 Figure 5.2 - Non-Simultaneous Firm (Non-Firm) Transfer Capabilities ..................................................63 Figure 5.3 - Simultaneous Firm (Non-Firm) Transfer Capabilities ..........................................................65 Figure 7.1 - Bulk Power Tariffs, 2001-2008............................................................................................76 Figure 7.2 – Estimated Levelized Cost of Generation in 2008................................................................77 Figure 7.3 - PJM Cost of New Entry for Combined Cycle Plant (2012 Estimate)...................................79 Figure 7.4 - PJM Average CONE for Different Technologies (2012 Estimate) .......................................80 Ghana Power Reliability Report 2010 v Privileged and Confidential Table 2.1 - Ghana's Ten Largest Load Centres, 2009 ...........................................................................13 Table 3.1 - Impact of VALCO Demand on National Peak and Energy Demand Growth........................25 Table 3.2 - 2010 Demand Scenarios ......................................................................................................26 Table 4.1 - Commercial Generation Facilities.........................................................................................35 Table 4.2 - Plant Dependable Capacity and Forced Outage Rates .......................................................37 Table 4.3 - Plant Generation and Capacity Factors ...............................................................................38 Table 4.4 - Comparison of Reserve Margins..........................................................................................39 Table 4.5 - Ghana Historical Reserve Margins .......................................................................................41 Table 4.6 - Generation Capacity Additions: 2010-2018 .........................................................................44 Table 4.7 - Projected 2010 Reserve Margin with and without Sunon-Asogli operational in 2010 .........47 Table 5.1 - Fact Sheet on Ghana’s Transmission Network ....................................................................55 Table 5.2 - Key Transformers and Loadings ..........................................................................................59 Table 5.3 - Substation Voltages .............................................................................................................60 Table 5.4 - Zone Aggregation for Total Transfer Capability Calculations...............................................62 Table 5.5 - Simultaneous Firm Transfer Capabilities: Importing Areas ..................................................64 Table 5.6 - Simultaneous Firm Transfer Capabilities: Exporting Areas ..................................................65 Table 5.7 - New Transmission Projects..................................................................................................66 Table 6.1 - Impact of Outages................................................................................................................70 Table 6.2 - Value per Unit of Electricity ..................................................................................................71 Table 6.3 - Value of Lost Load................................................................................................................71 Table 6.4 - Comparison of Electrification in Africa .................................................................................72 Table 7.1 - Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources....................................................81 Table 7.2 - Estimated ERV of Transmission Infrastructure.....................................................................82 Table A.1 - Non-Simultaneous Firm Transfer Capabilities .....................................................................89 Table A.2 - Non-Simultaneous Non-Firm Transfer Capabilities .............................................................90 Table A.3 - Simultaneous Firm Transfer Capabilities .............................................................................91 Table A.4 - Simultaneous Non-Firm Transfer Capabilities .....................................................................91 Ghana Power Reliability Report 2010 vii Privileged and Confidential This report is intended to present the outlook for Ghana’s bulk power supply system for stakeholders and the general public. It presents an overview of the operating status of the bulk power system and assesses whether it meets minimum reliability standards, a reflection of its ability to reliably supply the anticipated demand in the 2010 operating year. In addition, the report addresses historical
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