Forum | for the Intelligence Community

President Obama departs evening campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa, November 3, 2012

The White House (Pete Souza)

Goldcorp Crowdsourcing An Industry Best Practice for the Intelligence Community?

By Jesse Roy Wilson

Jesse Roy Wilson is a Defense Intelligence Agency Senior Intelligence Officer with U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida. He is currently working on a Master’s degree at the National Intelligence University in Washington, DC.

20 JFQ / issue 69, 2 nd quarter 2013 ndupress.ndu.edu WILSON

growing number of businesses McEwen wondered if he could use the same and capability. In doing so he stumbled suc- use crowdsourcing—that is, model with the gold mine. cessfully into the future of innovation, busi- they outsource tasks to people Back at Goldcorp, McEwen pitched his ness, and how wealth and just about every- A outside the organization1—in idea to take “all of our geology, all the data we thing else will be created. Welcome to the new a way that harnesses the capabilities and have that goes back to 1948, and put it into world of wikinomics where collaboration on knowledge of external individuals on a mass a file and share it with the world . . . [and] a mass scale is set to change every institution scale to create innovative solutions. This ask the world to tell us where we’re going to in society.9 article describes how Goldcorp, Incorpo- find the next six million ounces of gold.”4 He rated, an international gold-mining company experienced some resistance. For example, Like Goldcorp, the Intelligence Com- on the brink of collapse, used crowdsourcing the that McEwen wanted to munity could embrace crowdsourcing via the Internet to turn its business around. The article then explores some challenges and successes behind crowdsourcing initiatives the company posted its entire repository of and offers crowdsourcing as an approach information on its Web site and offered $575,000 to with applicability for the Intelligence Com- participants with the best methods munity (IC).

Goldcorp make public was proprietary. A mining to tap into the knowledge and expertise In Wikinomics, Don Tapscott, a company had never made this information outside of its boundaries when appropri- Canadian business executive and one of public before.5 Second, the geologists were ate. To explore this possibility, we need to Thinkers50’s most influential management concerned how the message would reflect understand how crowdsourcing works and thinkers, works with coauthor Anthony D. on their reputations, which essentially told its benefits and risks. Williams to describe how Goldcorp turned everyone—including their competitors—that its struggling 1950s gold-mining company they were unable to find the gold. Neverthe- Crowdsourcing into a multimillion dollar success.2 Head- less, McEwen prevailed, and in March 2000 Crowdsourcing is a portmanteau that quartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, he launched the “Goldcorp Challenge,” the refers to outsourcing tasks from within an Goldcorp employs 14,000 people who operate world’s first Internet gold rush.6 organization to people outside the organiza- 10 mines in Canada, the United States, The idea was simple. The company tion.10 The term originated in 2006 from a Mexico, and Central and South America. In posted its entire repository of information Wired magazine article in which Jeff Howe the 1990s, the company was struggling with on the 55,000-acre Red Lake property on its modified the term outsourcing to describe a high production costs, debt, and strikes. The Web site and offered $575,000 to participants business model using the Internet workforce new chief executive officer, Rob McEwen, with the best methods and estimates. More without the need for a traditional outsourc- was new to the gold-mining business, serving than 1,000 participants from 50 countries ing company.11 A variety of other terms are previously as a young mutual fund manager registered for the challenge with submissions used to describe similar activity, such as open at Merrill Lynch.3 Goldcorp analysts pro- coming from graduate students, consultants, access, open innovation, open source, and jected the death of a 50-year-old mine in Red mathematicians, physicists, and military . Over the last decade, Lake, Ontario. Without discovery of new gold officers. “There were capabilities I had never a number of successful companies have deposits, the company seemed likely to go seen before in the industry,” stated McEwen. incorporated this approach. Proctor and down with it. Contestants identified 110 potential sites, half Gamble uses crowdsourcing to support up to McEwen held an emergency meeting of which were new to the company, and 80 50 percent of its innovations, helping produce with his geologists and made the decision percent of them yielded substantial quantities such products as Mr. Clean Magic Eraser and to send them with $10 million to find gold of gold, eventually totaling 8 million ounces. Pringles Prints.12 Other examples include on the Red Lake property. Weeks later, the The company estimates that the challenge Affinnova, Amazon, Bell Canada’s I.D.ah!, geologists returned with good news. They saved 3 years of exploration time, and in 2001 Delicious, Dell’s IdeaStorm, Digg, Goldcorp, had discovered gold deposits; however, they revenues increased 170 percent, cash flow Google, IBM, InnoCentive, Kimberly Clark, were unable to estimate the value and deter- grew 1,180 percent, and profits soared from Kraft, LG Electronics, ManyEyes, Marketoc- mine the exact location of the gold. During a $2 million to $52 million.7 racy, Reckitt Benckiser, Salesforce.com’s Idea Massachusetts Institute of Technology con- The company awarded the top four Exchange, Swivel, Threadless, and Unilever.13 ference in 1999, McEwen listened intently to “virtual explorers” a shared prize of $325,000, A key difference, however, between crowd- a presentation on the production of the Linux and 25 semifinalists prizes totaled $250,000.8 sourcing and open innovation in general is computer operating system using volunteer As Wikinomics ends its story about Goldcorp: that crowdsourcing typically uses some kind software developers to “crowdsource” its of incentive or reward for the work.14 development over the Internet. The com- McEwen . . . realized the uniquely qualified The most well-known crowdsourcing pany’s chief architect and software engineer, minds to make new discoveries were probably Web site is Amazon’s Mechanical Turk.15 Linus Torvalds, disclosed the company’s soft- outside the boundaries of his organization, The site gives businesses and developers ware code publically so anonymous develop- and by sharing some intellectual property he access to 250,000 on-demand workers. ers could review it and make improvements. could harness the power of collective genius Requestors post jobs and workers choose ndupress.ndu.edu issue 69, 2 nd quarter 2013 / JFQ 21 Forum | Crowdsourcing for the Intelligence Community U.S. Coast Guard (Ayla Kelley) (Ayla U.S. Coast Guard

Admiral Thad Allen provides a briefing to the Unified Area Command in New Orleans in response to BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill

the jobs they want for the money offered. at the University of California Berkeley, Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, public One highly cited example was the attempt used his seminal Expert Political Judgment and private parties launched Web sites and to use Mechanical Turk to find the crash to publish 20 years of research on human to garner ideas from the public about site of American entrepreneur and aviator prediction capabilities, using more than how to stop the oil flowing from the sea Steve Fossett, who went missing in his plane 20,000 forecasts. His research concludes floor. Volunteers submitted approximately between the Sierra Nevada Mountains and that experts have no more forecasting skill 20,000 suggestions on the United States the Nevada desert. Although the effort did than nonexperts. The best forecasters were Deepwater Horizon Unified Command Web not find the crash site, an estimated 50,000 moderate along the ideological spectrum, site.24 However, as Euchner points out, most people looked for Fossett’s plane by review- skeptical of grand schemes, and more likely of the submissions were “notional” and ing two million snapshots of commercial to consider contradictory evidence and lacked real potential. Moreover, it required imagery covering 17,000 square miles.16 hypotheses and hedge on their probabilities vast resources to weed through all the , the world’s largest encyclopedia, when making bets.19 information. is another example of crowdsourcing. It has Although there are challenges to over four million articles (and growing) Challenges crowdsourcing, there are certain conditions produced, edited, and reviewed by volun- The director of innovation and policy that make success more likely. As we saw teers. Their reward is simply the satisfaction at the European branch of RAND, Joanna with Goldcorp and Mechanical Turk, given that their work is instantly available to the Chataway, stated, “We have seen plenty of the right circumstances, companies can world. Tara Behrend, an organizational anecdotal evidence that crowdsourcing can accomplish more by opening their work to sciences professor at The George Washing- work, but there has been little research into the masses than relying only on company ton University, states that one unrealized how and where it works best.”20 Indeed, orga- workers. In The Wisdom of Crowds, James benefit of using crowdsourcing over the nizations must use caution when launching Surowiecki provides four conditions that Internet for research is the potential to crowdsourcing initiatives to ensure that they enable the aggregate decisions of large groups reach a wider and more diverse audience to do not harm the image of the company and to make better judgments than experts: solve a common research challenge.17 that they strike the right balance between There is a growing interest in harness- diversity and expertise, offer the right incen- ■■ diversity of opinion ing crowds to tap the collective intelligence tives, and determine up front who has intel- ■■ independence (avoids ) of the masses, experts and nonexperts alike, lectual rights over the information.21 ■■ decentralization (so individuals can to forecast events. Known as prediction For example, the coach of a Finnish draw on local and tacit knowledge) markets, these initiatives typically pose soccer club crowdsourced the recruitment ■■ aggregation (using a mechanism to time-bound questions or statements (for of players and game tactics to the team’s turn individual information into collective example, Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection) fans via cell phone voting.22 The season judgments).25 to users in a , allowing individuals to ended in disaster and the owners fired the buy and sell contracts based on what they coach. James Euchner, a vice president at The Finnish soccer fans, for example, likely believe will happen.18 The idea of dilettantes Goodyear, argues that many online crowd- lacked the diversity of opinion and tacit beating experts in certain situations has sourcing initiatives are underdeveloped and knowledge required to determine recruit- some merit. Phillip Tetlock, a professor unsuccessful.23 For instance, during the ment or game tactics.

22 JFQ / issue 69, 2 nd quarter 2013 ndupress.ndu.edu WILSON

Applicability to the Intelligence 2008 NIC report Global Trends 2025 included for decisionmakers to have more questions Community American and non-American contributions on more issues and to direct those questions Like Goldcorp, the Intelligence Com- through conferences, commissioned studies, to the IC. Given the right circumstances munity (IC) deals with sensitive information and for the first time through a special Web and intelligence issues, the IC can adopt this and challenging problems. IC assessments site to allow comments on drafts.32 industry best practice to take advantage of establish what is known, unknown, and Embracing expertise wherever it resides the talent, expertise, and knowledge available where developments might be heading. The is an increasing requirement. Just in the across the globe to solve some of the most IC continues to monitor traditional issues last year, the Defense Advanced Research perplexing problems related to U.S. national such as the capabilities and intentions of Projects Agency launched a crowdsourc- security, generating additional capacity to nation-states, but it is now responsible for ing challenge to build an amphibious tank, deliver decision advantage to the Nation’s assessing a growing number of nontradi- offering $1 million.33 However, the IC has not policymakers. JFQ tional topics, such as health threats, resource attempted a crowdsourcing effort of its own. scarcity, and even global climate change.26 Building on the DNI directive on analytic Former Deputy Director of National Intelli- outreach and the work of Global Trends Ns ote gence (DNI) for Analysis and National Intel- 2025, the IC could conduct a pilot program 1 Adapted from Clare Sansom, “The Power of ligence Council (NIC) Chairman Thomas and crowdsource an intelligence problem to Many,” Nature Biotechnology 29, no. 3 (2011), 201. Fingar points to the expanding issues in IC the world over the Internet. It could identify A portmanteau is a combination of two or more threat assessments as evidence of the expand- existing outreach initiatives and establish a words into one new word. 27 ing agenda. For example, the IC’s 1996 framework to clear certain intelligence topics 2 Unless referenced otherwise, this section Annual Threat Assessment covered China, for public crowdsourcing initiatives. Like relies on Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams, North Korea, Russia, Iran, a few unstable Goldcorp, the DNI or NIC would review Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes states, terrorism, proliferation, narcotics, agency proposals and host the Internet site to Everything (New York: Penguin Group, 2010), crime, and .28 In 2012, however, the pose intelligence challenges with some type 7–10. 3 threat assessment included all of the above of incentive or reward. Contestants would Linda Tischler, “He Struck Gold on the intelligence topics plus an extended list of register so the IC could establish contacts and Net (Really),” Fast Company, May 31, 2002, available at . sphere (Mexico, Cuba, and Haiti), the Arab Goldcorp and a growing number of 4 Tapscott and Williams, 8. Spring, tense relationships between countries business industries have successfully har- 5 Goldcorp, Inc., “Announcement: Fast in various regions, space, water security, nessed the power of crowdsourcing to enlarge Company Selects Goldcorp as a Fast 50 Champion 29 health threats, and natural disasters. their pool of talent and create innovative of Innovation,” February 18, 2002, available at Two trends make crowdsourcing via solutions. The DNI directive and NIC report . the Internet an attractive option for the IC. are a step in the right direction. Globalization 6 Ibid. First, as exemplified by NIC assessments on will likely continue to drive economic, politi- 7 See Wikinvest, “Goldcorp,” avail- global trends,30 many of the new intelligence cal, and social tension, thus it is only natural able at

In 2007, the DNI published a directive Wikimedia Commons (Chuhern Hwang) on analytic outreach, defined as the “open, overt, and deliberate act of an IC analyst engaging with an individual outside the IC to explore ideas and alternative perspectives, gain new insights, generate new knowledge, or obtain new information.”31 Acknowledg- ing the need for the IC to expand its knowl- edge base and share burdens, the new policy directs analysts to tap outside expertise, IC elements to establish an analytic outreach coordinator, and the IC to use outside experts whenever possible. The preparation of the ndupress.ndu.edu issue 69, 2 nd quarter 2013 / JFQ 23 Forum | Crowdsourcing for the Intelligence Community

Goldcorp_%28GG%29/Data/Gross_Profit/1999/ mittee on Intelligence,” February 2, 2012, available Q4>; and Goldcorp, Inc. at . World’s First 6 Million Ounce Internet Gold Rush 27 Thomas Fingar, Reducing Uncertainty: Intel- Yields High Grade Results!” 2001 Prospectors ligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford: NEW and Developers Association of Canada Confer- Stanford University Press, 2011), 27. from NDU Press ence, Toronto, Canada, Infomine.com, March 12, 28 Director of Central Intelligence. for the 2001, available at . 30 See, for example, National Intelligence 9 Institute for National Strategic Studies Tapscott and Williams, 10. Council (NIC), Global Trends 2025: A Transformed 10 Adapted from Sansom. World (Washington, DC: NIC, November 2008), 11 Jeff Howe, “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” available at . wired/archive/14.06/crowds.html>. 31 Office of the Director of National Intel- August 2012 Trust, Engagement, and Strategic 12 National Defense University Forum Paul Sloane, “The Brave New World of Open ligence, “Intelligence Community Directive Technology Transfer: Innovation,” Strategic Direction 27, no. 5 (2011), 3. Number 205: Analytic Outreach,” July 16, 2008, 1, About the Author Trust, Engagement, and Dr. E. Richard Downes, Lt Col, Underpinnings for USAF (Ret.), is an Independent Researcher who has previously Technology Transfer: 13 served as a Brazil Desk Officer on the Joint Staff and Associate Dean Underpinnings for U.S.-Brazil of Academics at the Center for List adapted from Sloane; and Eric available at . importance to the United States of n the eve of the January 1, 2011, inauguration of Brazilian President a close relationship with Brazil. Dilma Rousseff, the State Department noted that the United States Cooperation ◆◆ Among emerging powers, Brazil is “is committed to deepening our relationship on a wide range of bilat- politically and culturally the clos- 32 eral, regional and global issues with Brazil’s government and people.” President est to the United States. For this O South American neighbor, defense Rousseff herself declared shortly thereafter, “We will preserve and deepen the Intelligence,” MIT Sloan Management Review 50, Fingar, 56. technology has become a critical relationship with the United States.” During President Barack Obama’s March aspect of strategic reorientation and force modernization. Sharing 2011 visit to Brazil, both leaders cited “the progress achieved on defense issues in U.S. defense technology, including 2010” and stated their commitment to “follow up on the established dialogue in know-how, would strengthen U.S.- 33 Brazil relations. this area, primarily on new opportunities for cooperation.” While these rhetori- cal commitments are important, will they lead to greater cooperation on defense ◆◆ The two nations have taken initial no. 2 (Winter 2009), 46. Spencer Ackerman, “DARPA Offers a steps to strengthen defense rela- issues and improve U.S.-Brazil ties? tions, including the 2010 Defense By E. Richard Downes The established dialogue on defense is part of a movement toward greater Cooperation Agreement and the first U.S.-Brazil Defense Coopera- U.S.-Brazil defense cooperation. On April 12, 2010, U.S. Defense Secretary 14 tion Dialogue. Robert Gates and Brazil’s Defense Minister Nelson Jobim initialed the first ◆◆ Full implementation of 2010 agree- Defense Cooperation Agreement between the two nations in over 25 years. It Sansom. Million Dollars for Crowdsourced Amphibious ments, pursuit of a shared vision of deeper defense cooperation, and endorsed multiple interactions already under way between both militaries, but development of a bilateral plan to it also broadened the scope of potential cooperation. The agreement endorsed advance the transfer of defense cooperation related to defense technology including research and development technology (and know-how) based 15 on Brazil’s National Defense Strat- (R&D), logistics support, technology security, military systems and equipment, egy can improve defense collabora- acquisition of defense products and services, and the sharing of operational and Tara S. Behrend et al., “The Viability of Tank,” Wired.co.uk, October 3, 2012, available tion and provide each country with important benefits. defense technology experiences. The agreement also called for the “facilitation of commercial initiatives related to defense matters” and cooperation on “imple- As Brazil’s power and mentation and development of programs and projects on defense technology applications.” In November 2010, Gates and Jobim signed a second accord, a CENTER FOR STRATEgIC RESEARCH Crowdsourcing for Survey Research,” Behavior at

24 JFQ / issue 69, 2 nd quarter 2013 ndupress.ndu.edu