The Cape Town Water Crisis of 2018: Our Story

The Cape Town Water Crisis of 2018: Our story

NAP EXPO 2018: Advancing National Adaptation Plans 4-6 April 2018, Sharma El Sheik, Egypt Dr Neville Sweijd Director Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science South Africa • Cape Town is not the only major metropole to run out of water supply (Rome, Sao Paolo etc.) • It is not just the Western Cape that is threatened – Port Elizabeth and surrounds are in trouble too. Social Media Social

Governance & regulation National & local politics

OUR STORY Employment Just a quick note to say that it strikes me as ironic (if not embarrassing) to come here to the Sinai and complain about a water shortage in Cape Town! Also, I might add, guilty about enjoying the luxury of this venue while considering the (largely racially based) inequality and poverty which persists in South African society.

The lesson is, we are adapted to what we need to adapt to, and cannot easily transcend sudden shocks. 1. Orientation 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis 4. Social impact, social Media and Corporate Social Investment (CSI) 5. Economic impact, innovation, opportunity and the water economy 6. Ecological implications of water augmentation & “Farming Water” 7. Some political and policy considerations 8. The new normal 1. Orientation

Location Population: Western Cape ~6.2M / Cape Town ~4M About 2 million tourists/year to Cape Town Wealth distribution Key economic sectors Water supply and juris diction – supply & distribution Politics

Inequality and poverty 1. Orientation Vegetation

Fynbos grows in a 100-to-200-km-wide coastal belt along the South Africa west coast to the Southeast coast (winter rainfall region). The diversity of fynbos plants is extremely high, with over 9000 species of plants occurring in the area, around 6200 of which are endemic.

Very significant agricultural sector with export fruit, wheat and wine grapes and production 1. Orientation The Western Cape Water Supply System

96% of water has up until now come from supply dams 1. Orientation

Rainfall seasons and systems

Summer Rainfall Region

Winter Snow Winter Rainfall Region (dependent) 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

Such a precipitous flip into a “different state or mode” is not merely a water management problem – it is a climate science problem 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

Dam levels are approaching critical but it will rain soon 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

2013

AVG

2016 2015 2017

Templ ref: PPT-ISO-colour.001 Doc Ref no: 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

STREAMFLOW 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity National Disaster Declaration – February 2018

Patensie 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

Why have the summer-like conditions prevailed for 3 straight years?

What mechanism is driving this ?

When will we get above average rain again? 2. The science of the “drought” and its relative severity

Jet Stream Meander Short and long term mechanisms 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis

• Storage Enhancement (National Government)

• Demand & supply Management (Local Government)

• Augmentation (National and Local)

• Water Restrictions

• 2017-2018 Campaign & Day Zero BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DEAL WITH THIS UNANTICIPATED EVENT 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis Albion springs The intolerable consequences of “Day Zero” (Level 7 restriction – no domestic supply):

• Queueing 100L/pp/pd (200 military-secured water points) • Household sewage accumulation (disease) • Closure of institutions (schooling) • Closure of businesses (excluding CBD +) • Cancelation of events (loss of income) • Cancelation of tourists (loss of income) • Social conflict • Mass migration (to Johannesburg) • Political fallout 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis

Announcement of “Day Zero” in November 2017: • Was a strategy of the Western Cape Government to galvanise societal action

• Caused wide-spread panic (water stockpiling / bottled water shortages / contingency plans / illegal activities)

• Created massive social media responses (Water Shedding Western Cape)

• Was treated with scepticism by some and as political grand-standing by others

• Created a backlash when the dates were changed and eventually “pushed out” to 2019

• Language changed to “Level 7”

Water Collection Point Mock-up 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis Announcement D-Zero 4th Oct March  19th December April 29th  9th Jan April22nd  16th Jan April21st  23rd Jan April 12th  5th Feb May 11th  13th Feb June 4th  20th Feb July 9th  7th March 2019  We are not out of the woods for 2018 yet!

The “Day Zero / Level 7” gamble -to tell the truth or overstate ? What saved the day? Agriculture allocation limit, Level 6B restriction and Augmentation 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis Announcement D-Zero 4th Oct March  19th December April 29th  9th Jan April22nd  16th Jan April21st  23rd Jan April 12th  5th Feb May 11th  - Agricultural allocation exhausted by February 13th Feb June 4th  c - Water supply to three agricultural irrigation boards was cut 20th Feb July 9th  entirely. 7th March 2019  - The farmers of the Groenland Water Users Association donated We are not out of the woods for 2018 yet! 10 billion L (20 days worth) litres of water from its Eikenhof dam to the City.

This was the ace-up-the-sleeve

Consumption has halved Dam levels reduction rate from 1.4% p.w to 0.4% p.w.

RESTRICTION LEVELS 2 3 3b 4 5 6 6B 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis

How was this achieved ? • Education, campaigns and appeals • Naming and shaming • 30K+ WMD devices (<350L/H/Day) • Fines • The threat of DAY ZERO • The increased water tariffs (basically water has doubled in price) 3. “Day Zero” and the management response to the crisis 4. Social impact, social media & CSI A middle class crisis Consumption of water in Cape Town 4. Social impact, social media & CSI

Poverty: It is not our intention that the majority should remain poor – how will we manage the water ? 4. Social impact, social media & CSI

Malls and public buildings

Bottling water instead of beer! 4. Social impact, social media & CSI Water Consumption in my home #1 120000.00 100 90 100000.00 80 70 80000.00 60 60000.00 50 40 40000.00 30 20 20000.00 10 0.00 0 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 Jun17 Sept17 Mar18 Litres U$D

Wear clothes 2x (including underwear) Change linen half as often Never bath Power Shower once every two days (swim in the ocean) Never flush a #1 and only re-use grey water 4. Social impact, social media & CSI AIM & PURPOSE To provide an online space for members to share & discuss water- related information & tips that are relevant to the drought in the Western Cape. A space to: ask questions, advice, discuss & debate, encourage water wise usage & collaboration, & seek practical solutions.

Disclaimer: The Admins (including Moderators) of this group take no responsibility for any posts, comments, images or photos placed here by members. All material is the sole responsibility & ownership of the person who placed it. Admins reserve the right to remove any post or comment without consultation with the original poster. GROUP RULES 1. NO RELIGIOUS POSTS 2. NO PARTY POLITICAL POSTS. 3. NO HATESPEECH or RACIALLY CHARGED POSTS: 4. NO SWEARING 5. NO HOGGING THE WALL: 6. NO SOAPBOXING: 7. NO FAKE NEWS, RUMOURS OR UNFOUNDED ALLEGATIONS 8. NO POLITICKING, ACTIVISM OR SPAMMING: 9. NO BLOCKING AN ADMIN 10. NO NAMING & SHAMING: 11. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS: 12. DEFAMATION / SLANDER / LIBEL: 4. Social impact, social media & CSI 5. Economic impact, innovation, opportunity & the water economy

NEGATIVE ECONOMIC IMPACT

• The City of Cape Town has lost R1.6bn (4% of budget) due to lost water supply revenue – sought a drought levy (abandoned after protest)

• City Credit Rating Downgrade

• Agriculture is expecting a R5bn loss (production of export fruit) and loss of jobs (seasonal and permanent)

• Water dependent businesses have gone bankrupt (car wash, garden services etc)

• Utility tarrifs expected to double in 2 years 5. Economic impact, innovation, opportunity & the water economy

POSITIVE ECONOMIC IMPACT

• Innovative technology (e.g. DROPULA)

• Water supply companies

• Water re-use companies (e.g.Coca-cola waste)

• Plastic industry boom (e.g. Jojo tanks)

• Bore-hole and private desalination industry 6. Ecological implications of water augmentation & “Farming Water”

City of Cape Town’s emergency groundwater drilling programme Located in a globally unique (fynbos) biome

222 drill-points for aquifer abstraction are located in threatened ecosystems (141 protected by law)

These systems depend on access to water table and aquifer replenishment.

Unknown consequences. Salinity intrusion threat. Potential biodiversity disaster.

Establishment of a environmental consultative committee concession made in February (halting of some projects) 6. Ecological implications of water augmentation & “Farming Water”

Loss of Mean Annual Runoff from alien vegetation evapotranspiration as a percentage pristine Working for water ecosystem function. In come Restoration of fynbos areas 30% of runoff (to dams) is lost. 7. Some political and policy considerations

• Politicisation of the water crisis (co-option for proxy political gain)

• Democratic Alliance leadership intervention

• The mayor gone rouge (merger of two opposition parties)

• Who owns and manages the water ? 8. The new normal

Plan with water augmentation Plan with water augmentation + Climate change pressure • Improved seasonal climate forecasting (TNN?) • There is no such thing as average! • A change in attitude to water consumption (TNN?) • Water is too cheap • The lesson is, we are adapted to what we need to adapt to, and cannot easily transcend sudden shocks. Social Media Social

Governance & regulation National & local politics

THANK YOU Employment The Annual Cycle and Seasonality Project

Tolerance Threshold Economic Disadvantage

Seasonal Signal Average variability (e.g. temperature, rainfall, storminess etc.)

Tolerance Threshold

Economic Disadvantage

Trending variability Extreme Events

Global change drivers

Economic disadvantage Trending resilience Scenarios